I have a crazy day today and the clocks going up an hour here on the east coast doesn’t help any. These write-ups will be shorter than usual for that reason– appreciate all the support and viewership throughout this wild week of college hoops! Coming off a sweet 4-2 Saturday, let’s keep winning!
LSU 1st half +3.5 (-110), 1.5 units: I can see Bama asserting themselves and covering the full game number at 6, but LSU has been on fire (and they look like the team I was hoping to bet on so many times before) and I think they take that momentum into the 1st half. LSU can score with anyone, especially as of late, and they have a huge revenge angle here since the Crimson Tide bested them twice in regular season play.
Cincinnati/Houston under 135 (-110), 1 unit: The Bearcats don’t have a great offense, though they do play at a high tempo. Houston plays at one of the slowest tempos in the country, however, and should be able to control this game with their methodical defense and well-timed offensive attack. I’d be surprised if Cincinnati makes it over 50 points and with a line like -13 on the Cougars, there should be enough margin to prevent excessive free throw attempts. Give me the under.
Ohio State +6 (-110), 1.5 units: I really, really love the way Illinois is playing but the Buckeyes are playing as confident as ever. It’s hard to imagine either team preventing the other from maintaining close distance. This should be a close game in the 1st half that opens up in the second but it’ll be a back and forth battle. Illinois is really good, but are the more than 2 possessions good over an elite Big 10 team in the conference final? I don’t think so. Take the dog and the points.
Jan 19, 2021; Baton Rouge, Louisiana, USA; LSU Tigers forward Shareef O'Neal (R) guards Alabama Crimson Tide forward Darius Miles (L) during the second half at Pete Maravich Assembly Center. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports
Happy Selection Sunday everyone!
LSU vs Alabama -6 O/U 157
And then there were 2. Both of these teams really faced some adversity over this SEC tournament with LSU down to Mississippi 3/4 into their first game and Alabama down double digits in the second half to Tennessee only to come back and win it. Both teams play extremely fast with LSU ranking 27th in seconds per possession and Alabama ranking number 2 at 14.1 seconds per possession. The reason that this total isn’t 170+ points is that Alabama’s defense ranks number 1 in the league and LSU has stepped their defense up recently. LSU is the better shooting team at 53.1% FG to Bama’s 51.3%. Both teams focus on offensive rebounds much more then defensive boards. Looking at this spread, I think that it is a tad bit high for this caliber game. Both teams will be very motivated here and if anything, LSU has shown that they can hang with the best teams in the SEC with two wins vs Arkansas, ole miss and one against Tennessee. Alabama beat this LSU team handily the two times that they have played but LSU’s rebounder Darious Days was out one of those games and only had played 15 minutes in their first matchup due to foul trouble. I’ll take LSU + the points here and I think Alabama wins 80-75.
The Tigers come into this game ranked 6th in the NCAA in points per possession at 120.1 points per 100 possessions. Defensively they are not all there. They are currently ranked 136th in points per possession. Giving up 99.9 points per 100 possessions, and that number is higher against SEC opponents at 105.1. They are coming off last nights game where they had to scratch and claw their way out of there against Ole Miss.
Arkansas and Eric Musselman’s team comes into this game ranked 34th in points per possession on offense, and 16th in the country on defense. They limit and destroy their opponents on the boards. The only allow an offensive rebounding rate of 28%. They come into this game after handling business last night against The Missouri Tigers.
As I just said Arkansas smothers their opponents on rebounding and plays a solid defense. LSU is ranked one of the lowest teams in offensive rebounds, and have a substantially low turnover rate. This mean if shots are not falling they are gonna have limited possessions which is going to be hard for them to get some scoring in. Arkansas is one of the hottest teams in the country, and they are so balanced on both ends of the floor. LSU is going to have to shoot their way to a win tonight, and that is not going to happen against this Arkansas defense.
Kevin Porter Jr. is the reason the Rockets covered last night but that was still a bad beat. The kid looks good, though. Is there anything worse than a star player’s injury status updated just minutes before a game? Cough, Embiid. Cough, annoying. Onto my picks:
Nets -11 (-110), 1.5 units: I guess the Pistons have a chance here. At times Detroit plays with a fiery mentality that keeps them in or wins them games. The reality is, the Pistons are a bad basketball team that ranks in the bottom 3rd in defensive efficiency, plays at an insufferable pace, and only scores 107.8 ppg. The blitzkrieg offense that is the Brooklyn Nets, who lead the league in scoring and play at a top 10 pace, will overwhelm the Pistons on their home floor. I hate to put an asterisk on so many of these games but that’s the modern day NBA. I’m sure Kyrie and Harden will play tonight, there’s no signs they won’t, but if they sit this bet is off. Nets should win this in a blowout.
Blazers -5 (-105), 2 units and Blazers/T-Wolves over 234 (-110), 2 units: I’ve been waiting for a spot like this and now we have it. I’ll keep this short. Minnesota returns home after a great performance against the up and down Pelicans, a game where they literally couldn’t miss from beyond the arc. The Blazers are coming off a home loss to the elite Suns, though they very nearly got the W and led throughout the contest. I don’t care that Minnesota is at home- they’re a horrible defensive team and they play with pace- that feeds right into the Portland’s winning formula. Lillard, Gary Trent Jr., Kanter and Covington will have their way with the porous Minnesota defense. Oh and this total is way too low. Use this combo as a parlay or two separate bets, but I love both of these angles to hit. Portland rights the ship tonight and we see plenty of 60+ point quarters.
Nuggets win (-125), 1.5 units: I know Denver just played last night but this is a better spot than one might think and they’re clearly a better team than Dallas. The return of Paul Millsap back to their roster will only mean positive things moving forward. Coach Michael Malone will ease him back in – he only played 22 minutes last night – but Millsap is a significant aid on the defensive end and brings a lot of battle-tested experience to a young Denver lineup. Dallas is on the second leg of a short road trip but coming off a bad loss to OKC where they got caught feeling a little too fat and sassy. It’s the ongoing narrative of the modern day NBA; high emotions and trap spots. Denver won’t get trapped tonight. Jokic brings a calculated energy to his team and carries their younger stars when necessary. The favorite is at home and will get a nice break tomorrow after this game. Expect the Nuggets to keep their win streak going tonight.
To be honest, there should be a 187 on this fight card if you ask me. I searched and couldn’t find much value but here in the main event. This fight should be an interesting one. Both fighters seem pretty hungry to me but the price really says that Edwards wins this fight. Edwards is 29 years old and 18-3 in MMA. His only losses were by decisions or DQ and his last one was way back in 2015 to the current champion Kamaru Usman. He is hoping for a rematch soon and this fight might get him there. Bilal Muhammed is kind of a badass himself at 18-3 and 32 years old but he hasn’t faced the same competition as Edwards. Bilal has only been knocked out once is his career and has never been submitted as well. The Obvious thing for me in this fight is the over 4.5 rounds at -200. You could take the distance at -190 but I’d personally rather pay the 10 cents to get out of the last 2.5 minutes of this fight. Edwards has went the distance 11 times in his 21 fights including 5 out of his last 6. He would rather win that way than expose himself. Muhammed has went to decision 15 times out of his 21 fights including 7 times out of his last 8. There is only 1 play for me.
I know I know, everyone loves Leon Edwards. I do too, I promise. According to many experts, Leon is the most underrated and dangerous commodity in the UFC. He enters tonight on an 8 fight win streak and he’s defeated some of the best Welterweights in the world: Rafael dos Anjos, Gunnar Nelson, and a younger Donald Cerrone. His only loss since 2015? Kamaru Usman. Usman will be a UFC Hall of Famer and may be one of the best UFC fighters of all time when the dust settles. Not a bad loss for Leon. Still, I like the underdog tonight. Why? In short, I’m worried that Edwards’ long layoff might hurt him and he may underestimate Muhammad. Hence, I see value on the dog. And we like value.
Posting the same record as Edwards at 18-3 overall, Belal Muhammad is on a tear right now and at age 32, it’s obvious he’s in his prime. He’s also HUNGRY. The sunglass wearing “Remember the Name” Muhammad just fought a month ago, dominating Dhiego Lima, a skilled striker who had a significant reach advantage and came into UFC 258 on a 3-fight win streak. Many thought he would be solid competition for Muhammad. Not so much. Belal made Lima look silly. Belal maintained a suffocating distance, showed great defensive tactics, and hit on 136 significant strikes. His attack was constant. Muhammad fights at a relentless pace akin to Max Holloway and he’s as skilled a grappler as he is a striker. It’s reasonable to say that Leon Edwards hasn’t seen a fighter quite like Muhammad.
In my heart, I want Leon Edward to win. He’s still one of the hottest prospects in the UFC and he deserves to reassert himself as one of the Welterweight’s top contenders. The long layoff and cancelled fights weren’t his fault. I would also love an Edwards/Usman rematch. But if we’re talking smart wagering and finding value, it lies with Muhammad. There’s a reason the total on this fight going the distance is set at -190. Historically, both fighters let their battles go to the score cards, though Belal was awfully aggressive in his last fight. Edwards likes to pick his spots and methodically beat his opponents. If anything, a bet on Muhammad within distance has a higher chance of hitting, and those odds are +500.
In summation, I love taking an underrated fighter at + money who’s hungry and coming with a ton of momentum. Edwards better not take Muhammad lightly.
Oklahoma State's Cade Cunningham (2) and Isaac Likekele (13) celebrate during the second half of the college men's basketball game between the Oklahoma State Cowboys and the Arkansas Razorbacks at Gallagher-Iba Arena in Stillwater, Okla., Saturday, Jan. 30, 2021. Cowboys beat Arkansas 81-77. Photo by Sarah Phipps, The Oklahoman
Ohio vs Buffalo -2.5 O/U 156
Return of the MAC. The MAC championship game that is. The Ohio Bobcats are playing some great ball right now beating Toledo and Kent State but let’s face it, this team doesn’t play much defense. The Bobcats rank 237th in the league allowing 44.9% shooting while the Bulls has stepped up to the plate on D allowing a 59th best 41.1% shooting. Ohio does edge Buffalo in shooting percentage by 1 percentage point but who is going to clean up the boards? Buffalo averages 44.1 rebounds per game while Ohio averages 34.8. That is a massive discrepancy. The Bobcats shoot a lot of 3 pointers but the Bulls average a 3rd best in the NCAA allowing only 27.5% FG percentage from deep. Buffalo is a fast pace dribble drive type offense but they really do not turn over the ball much which is a nice rarity for faced pace teams. Gonna take the Bulls here in the short favorite roll.
Buffalo -2.5 – 2 stars
Oklahoma State vs Texas -2 O/U 144.5
Are we sure that the right team is favored here? Oklahoma state has only defeated West Virginia and Baylor by playing very solid basketball down the stretch. Texas is a very good team that got a nice little break with Kansas’s Covid issues but that to me doesn’t mean that they have some big advantage in this game. Texas is the better offensive team due to their 3 point shooting but Oklahoma State defends it well only allowing 31.5% to go in. As far as overall FG% the edge goes to Oklahoma State 46.6% to 45.2%. Free throws and rebounds are about equal. Texas edges in turnovers and Oklahoma State edges in defense. The biggest thing for me here is that these Oklahoma State stats do not factor in Isaac Likekele for about 6 games and Cade Cunningham for 3 games. The Pokes are finally healthy now. I think that Oklahoma State wins this game but I will gladly take the 2 points which is the second most common difference in final scores in mens basketball games.
Too bad UNC didn’t pull off the win last night or we really would have had a big day. Still love the Tar Heels as a dangerous team in late March. If the last week was any indication, these games should be highly entertaining and close (hence why we favor so many dogs). Alright, it’s Saturday baby! Let’s get to the picks!
Michigan -6 (-115), 1.5 units: I was a believer in Ohio State for a very long time until they started to cool off in February. The Buckeyes have some killer shooters, particularly Duane Washington from beyond the arc, and when they’re fluid on offense they can catch a team off guard and go up quick. Michigan had a few let-down spots but they’re as commanding and consistent as any team in the country. They also have the deepest roster by far in the Big 10 and they’re talented at every position. I questioned Michigan’s motivation heading into the Big 10 tourney, but after watching the Wolverines stifle and then roll a surging Maryland squad yesterday, I have no hesitation about this pick. Michigan won’t let Ohio State overtake their throne. And the way the Buckeyes let teams come back late in games spells bad news for this show-down. Take Michigan.
Alabama -5 (-105), 1 unit: Alabama is clearly the class of the SEC, at least by my estimations. And yes, most of that is because of their electric offensive attack. This is only a 1 unit play because Tennessee is of course a tough, reputable opponent with a great defense. They also have a little revenge angle here after their loss to the Crimson Tide in early January. But like most teams, I don’t see the Volunteers keeping up with Bama’s ability to score. PS– Alabama is also the #2 adjusted defense in the nation now according to KenPom. They’re not too shabby on the other side of the court, either.
Iowa +4 (-105), 2 units: Illinois is the hottest team in the Big 10 but Iowa is a close second. The Hawkeyes have showed toughness and resilience over and over again the past 2 months and a surging Illinois team won’t intimidate them. The Illini love to push the pace and Iowa will have to keep up, but Luka Garza won’t allow big Kofi Cockburn to completely dominate this game. It’ll be a back and forth battle and as we’ve seen so many times this week, I wouldn’t be shocked if it goes to OT. Take the dog.
Memphis +7 (-110), 1.5 units: Memphis isn’t giving up that #1 adjust defense designation on KenPom any time soon and good for them– the Tigers have looked like a confident contender and they still pose the biggest challenge for Houston in the AAC. In their last matchup against the Cougars, Memphis went punch for punch with the class of the conference. Anfernee “Penny” Hardaway is proving to be an exceptional coach and great recruiter. The Tigers may lose, but they won’t go out lightly.
Georgetown +8.5 (-110), 2.5 units: Damn right I’ll continue backing the Hoyas. Game after game and in the toughest final minutes, Patrick Ewing’s unit steps up in big ways, especially on the boards and on the free throw line. Creighton is an elite team but they are one of the worst free throw shooting teams in America (ranked 332nd on Haslametrics). They’re literally worse than teams like Merrimack, Long Island, Bethune-Cookman, UMass Lowell, you get it. Think that’ll matter in the final minutes? I do. Georgetown has been lights out at the end of games at the FT line and they’re one of the best in the country in FT percentage (36th). Combine that with their talent in the front court and it’s an easy dog bet for me. I love their moxie and last time I checked, we’re still at MSG– this is Patrick’s house babbyyyy! Take the Hoyas.
Georgia Tech wins (+165), 1 unit: I thought a fired up UNC team would take down the Seminoles but now I’ll double down on an even hotter team to do it. Winners of now 7 straight with an offense that seems to be getting better and better, the Yellow Jackets got a convenient day off yesterday to prep for the ACC Final. The Seminoles sealed a hard fought win against the dangerous and talented Tar Heels Friday. From a matchup standpoint, I don’t see much separating Florida State and Georgia Tech. The spot favors Tech with a day of rest and a ton of momentum. The Seminoles are volatile away from home and tend to blow big games. The value lies with Georgia Tech.
Oregon State/Colorado over 132.5 (-110), 2 units: This Pac-12 game should be closer than the line indicates and I really like the way Colorado has flexed on offense lately. In their last 5 games, the Buffaloes are averaging 71.6 ppg; Oregon State is averaging 74.6 ppg in the same span. I get why this number is lower, but a hotly contested game should result in more points and free throw attempts. Give me the over.
Happy Friday! As we get back into the swing of NBA action, trust that my picks will gain more momentum and pour more cash money in your bank accounts. Onto the picks!
Pelicans -7.5 (-110), 1.5 units: As ugly as this bet feels after the Pelicans were completely embarrassed on their home court last night against the lowly Timberwolves, this is how you make money long-term– taking advantage of a underpriced line in a redemption spot and with a much better team. The Cavs were on a nice little run before the All-Star break but they do not have the talent of New Orleans, especially not a motivated New Orleans. The Pelicans are the picture of unpredictable and tonight should prove no different. I wouldn’t be surprised if they blew this game too, no one would, but it’s important to remember that games like yesterday aren’t the norm, even in the Pelicans’ case. Zion and Brandon Ingram and the Pelicans’ scorers are due for positive regression and it’s unlikely the Cavs will go on a 3-point tear like Minnesota. Collin Sexton is the real deal but without Kevin Love, I don’t see Cleveland keeping pace. Oh and it’s yet another good front court matchup for Zion. Bet with a facepalm on the Pelicans.
Nuggets -2.5 (-115), 2 units: The Nuggets were one of the hottest teams in the league entering the All-Star break and Memphis doesn’t exactly scare me away from taking this bet. Nikola Jokic has come into his own as the league’s most entertaining big man and Jamal Murray will be poised to contribute after the All-Star snub. As the season progressed, Murray has been more and more productive. These are both very solid teams so I expect a back and forth matchup (look for a live opportunity on Denver), but the Nuggets bring a combination of methodical pacing, a scoring unit that ranks top 5 in offensive efficiency, and a sneaky defense that allows the 7th fewest ppg in the association. This line doesn’t ask for much and Memphis is feelin’ good after a post-All-Star-break win over Washington. Denver is a different animal. The Nuggets will cover.
Wizards +4.5 (-110), 1.5 units *if Bradley Beal plays: The Sixers took advantage of a bad Chicago team (more on that in future articles–Chicago is a pretender) who couldn’t muster up the moxie to beat Philadelphia without Embiid and Simmons. Good for Philly. Embiid and Simmons are out again tonight and I don’t expect the same result. Washington returned from the break with a bad loss against Memphis and will look to redeem themselves at home tonight. Bradley Beal is questionable with knee soreness, but if he plays tonight I really like the Washington side. Washington plays at the quickest tempo in the NBA and the 76ers B team won’t be able to fend off Westbrook and Beal for all 48 minutes. I’ll be sprinkling some money-line action on this, too.
Jazz -17 (-110), 1 unit: What a line! But sadly, I think it’s dead on. Since the Christian Wood injury, the Rockets have been a different team. If you’ve read my articles historically I was high on Houston in mid-January, only to be disappointed over and over again. Now the poor, beaten up Rockets have to travel from Sacramento to Utah to face one of the league’s hottest and most complete teams. The Jazz, who undoubtedly feel disrespected on several fronts, are back from the break and looking for redemption. They’re at home, highly motivated, and significantly healthier than the Rockets (John Wall is out and Oladipo might get some “rest” time). This is a huge line but it should be a momentous blowout.
Lean, Lakers moneyline (-160): I’ll avoid this game because LAL is a little beaten up and Indiana might have some extra steam after they learned Caris LaVert is returning Sunday. Regardless, the Lakers are the better team by a wide-margin and this moneyline price is too low. The line actually makes me pause, another reason why I’m avoiding this as an official bet, but LAL should make a good parlay leg.
I love the barkin’ dogs today and why the hell not?! These conference tournaments have been wild and so many underdogs seem to be the more motivated teams. Opportunity opportunity opportunity! Let’s GET IT!
Maryland +8.5 (-105), 1.5 units: I really like the way Maryland looked yesterday. It’s not about any one thing they did really well, it’s about how solid of a group they are. That was a tough spot for the Terps going up against a desperately hungry Michigan State team. The Spartans came out surging and looking like they would out-motivate and out-pace Maryland, but then the Terps took over near the end of the first half and never let off the pedal. Aggressive offense, especially from Maryland guards Wiggins and Ayala, helped force the Spartans into tough spots and they were never able to recover. Now the Terps go up against the class of the Big 10 and I have to question the Wolverines’ motivation today. They didn’t look all that pumped in their second contest against the Spartans last weekend and now they have to face a hot Maryland squad. The most impressive aspect of how the Terps play is on the defensive end. They do a fantastic job at preventing easy buckets and forcing teams into uncomfortable shot selections. And as I said in my post yesterday, Maryland was only allowing 58.8 ppg in their recent 5 game winning streak. They looked like that team Thursday and I like that heading into this early contest. Hunter Dickinson should pose some problems, as he always does, but I expect the menacing Maryland defense to slow down Michigan’s pace and force a close game.
Purdue wins (+105), 1 unit: Purdue is playing some of the most solid all around basketball of any team the last month and I don’t think Ohio State will be prepared for it. Winners of their last 5 games and 11 of their last 14 games, the Boilermakers are one of the most battle-tested teams in the country (strength of schedule ranks 11th on both KenPom and Haslametrics). The team literally doesn’t have a weakness, and their methodical pace of play has befuddled many an opponent in the Big 10. Ohio State faced a poor Minnesota team yesterday and easily won, or did they? The Buckeyes allowed the Gophers to come back a little towards the end and Minnesota nearly tied the game. Not a good look at the end. The Buckeyes will face a tremendous uptick in class today and I haven’t been awed by what I’ve seen the last few weeks. Even in wins, Ohio State isn’t an imposing unit. Purdue and Ohio State split games earlier this season; I don’t think this one will be as close. Take Purdue.
Tennessee -3 (-115), 1.5 units: The Volunteers are a match-up problem for Florida. The Gators are a good team but they turn the ball over way too much and Tennessee leads the SEC in forcing turnovers. Tennessee went down early in their last contest, only to surge and control the game with ease. Their ability to out-rebound and push around Florida in the front court was glaring. This is basically a home game for the Volunteers; Give me UT.
Georgia Tech wins (+155), 1 unit: Just got news that UVA is out of the tournament– COVID strikes again! Worst. Too bad, because I really liked the Yellow Jackets for + money here. Watch out for Georgia Tech in the ACC title game.
Georgetown wins (+140), 2 units: What’s not to like about the way Georgetown is playing lately? Patrick Ewing is playing with a chip on his shoulder in his backyard at MSG, the Hoyas are excellent from the free throw line, their bigs can control and out-rebound any team, and they have a ton of momentum. Can’t say the same about Seton Hall. The Pirates entered the Big East tournament stumbling and just escaped with an OT win against Saint John’s. That was a very solid win but I could see the Pirates underestimating Georgetown today. This is one of my favorite dogs on today’s slate, thus the play for 2 units. Take the Hoyas.
North Carolina wins (+115), 2 units: Hot damn, I really like the way the Tar Heels are playing. That incredible surge by UNC in the final 10 minutes yesterday was really impressive. That’s really hard to do against a very tough Virginia Tech team. I love stats that support my angles, and there’s plenty of them here, but I’m throwing them out the window for this contest. It’s all about the intangibles in this Friday night Semifinal. Florida State has been incredibly unpredictable to end their season. Trust me, my bankroll knows. I absolutely don’t trust them here today. North Carolina matches up really well against the Seminoles (as they showed on February 27). UNC is the tallest team in the ACC and they bullied Florida State in their last battle. North Carolina is playing with a huge chip on their shoulder, on a mission to prove they’re not a team to underestimate. I like them to win the ACC Tournament (they’ll meet Georgia Tech if they win today) and I like them to overwhelm the Seminoles again tonight. They want it more.
