Well this party really died. I got a little too cute last night with my picks, choosing to side with totals instead of the sides I knew would hit. I hit a few good parlays tailing the Mavericks and Clippers and should have just stuck to those angles here. Ah well. Our win clip means we’re due for some good redemption Friday, let’s get it.

Knicks +1.5 (-110), 1.5 units and total under 214.5, 1 unit: Two separate bets, not a parlay. This is an intriguing game between two clubs heading in opposite directions. The Knicks, although they cover frequently as a dog, can’t find a way to scrap a good win. Losers of now 5 of their last 6 contests, and not exactly against world-beaters, the Knicks have been plagued by injuries to RJ Barrett and Derrick Rose. Certainly that’s partially why they’re losing. The other part is their inability to ever pull ahead on offense. Tom Thibodeau has always been a conservative coach. He doesn’t pay much attention to rhythm, he isn’t the best schemer, and he just seems like the type of old-school guy that won’t adapt or listen to new ideas. Teams usually start to take on the personalities of their leader and that reality seems to be rearing its ugly head the last few weeks. Maybe it’s time to mix it up, eh Knickerbockers? In the last 6 games, the Knicks have only averaged 101.8 ppg. Although they’re still playing exceptional defense, rated #1 overall and only allowing 42.3% from the field in their last 5 games, they’re near the bottom in points per game and offensive efficiency according to Hollinger’s team ratings. The Grizzlies, on the other hand, may be playing their best basketball all year. Looking like the complete opposite of New York, Memphis has won 5 of their last 6 games and they’re improving on both offense and defense, ranked 7th in overall defense and 16th in overall offense. And they’ve been improving against really good teams, on the road.

All that said, I think this is the spot to bet on New York. They’re at home, rested, and they’re facing the kind of opponent they can beat. Memphis does a lot of things well but they’re not overwhelming. Julius Randle and Jonas Valanciunas should be a fun battle in the front court, while Ja Morant and RJ Barrett will go head to head at the guard position. It’ll be a tough-guy contest all night and that’s why I love the under– both teams are built around their defenses– but that’s also the type of game the Knicks love to win. For all the success the Grizzlies have had, the Knicks just need it more and they’re finally set up right to take advantage. This line is sneakily telling you it’s the right side. Bet the home dog.

Celtics -8.5 (-110), 2 units: It’s hard to imagine that Boston is in the thick of the playoff race. Every time you turn on the TV and see them playing on TNT or ESPN, they’re losing. Those marquee games against Philly and Brooklyn and other great teams often find the Celtics a day late and a dollar short, and it’s evident why. I’m not sure what’s going on with Brad Stevens’ leadership but his patient, even-keel style may be phasing out. The Celtics aren’t deep but they’re starting 5 is talented– even the average fan can see that. The issue is, and it’s clear when watching their games, the Celtics’ stars seem to just run around and find an open shot. There’s no true rhyme or reason to it; it’s just unorganized street ball. And there’s no clear leader, either. That won’t work against the well-coached elites of the association and it’s proven as much thus far. Luckily, talent overrides bad competition and that’s what they’re facing Friday. The Timberwolves are one of the worst defenses in the NBA and only Cleveland and OKC out-suck Minnesota when it comes to point differential. Although talented on offense, the Celtics have more than enough prowess and gumption to stifle the 26th ranked offense (Hollinger metrics) in the NBA. On the other side of the court, Boston’s stars should thrive and be able to take advantage of a team where all hope and most of their motivations, especially on defense, are lost. The Celtics are at home off 2 days of rest before they have to travel to Denver Sunday (get ready to fade them again in that one). They can’t afford to drop a game like this. Expect them to win with ease.

Lean, Pacers -4.5 (-110): This is a wait and see who’s sitting out situation, but if most of the Pacers’ key players are in, hammer this line. The Magic are done.

76ers -6 (-110), 1.5 units: I’ll keep this short because there’s really not much to it. The Pelicans could be getting healthier, watch out for pre-game updates before this game, and they are back at home, but a fully-stocked Philadelphia squad is no team to bet against right now. With Embiid back in the lineup and looking real fresh against the Celtics in their last outing, I want nothing to do with the Pelicans’ side Friday night. New Orleans’ defense has been absolutely porous. Tobias Harris and Joel Embiid and Curry and Simmons and all the weapons Philly has on and off the bench should prove too overwhelming when it matters most. The Sixers have had their perils on the road, I get that, but the Pelicans aren’t great at home either, covering only 44% (12-15) of the time at the Smoothie King Center. Zion and New Orleans will be playing catch up once again; bet Philly.

Lean, Bucks -8.5 (-110): I might sprinkle some action on this. With or without Giannis, the Bucks are the exceedingly better team and they play well at home. They need to assert themselves in a big win here.

Wizards/Warriors over 238.5 (-110), 1.5 units* (only if Bradley Beal plays): This is a high total (thanks Captain obvious) but it started at 240.5 so I’ll take the reduced line in a heartbeat. Bradley Beal made a clear difference in his return for the Wizards 2 days ago against Orlando, dropping 26 points in 30 minutes. Russ thrived in their last contest too, scoring 23 points, dishing out a jaw-dropping 15 assists, and somehow gathering 14 rebounds for yet another tripe-double. Of course this was against the God-awful Magic in a spot they had no interest in, but it’s still worthy to note. Beal is an instant stimulant for the Washington offense, just like Steph Curry is an equivalent sparkplug for Golden State. The former world-champion scored 37 and 41 points in his first 2 games back with his club, earning a win over Milwaukee in the process. The Warriors defense, for all it’s gotten credit for in the past, seems to be regressing. In spurts they can play really well, but they now sit at 24th overall in points allowed per game and 10th in defensive efficiency, both declines from weeks past. The Wizards, well, they still allow the most points in the NBA and they sit uncomfortably at 26th in defensive efficiency. Where these two squads are really similar is pace. No two teams in the NBA play faster than the Wizards and Warriors, rated #1 and #2 in tempo respectively according to Hollinger’s team ratings. As long as Bradley Beal plays, and he should, I love this game to soar over the total. With teams full of star shooters racing down the court every chance they get, I think it’s inevitable. Look at first quarter and first half lines, too, and hammer the live over if the lines drop because of a brief dip in field goal percentage. Sometime it ain’t rocket science, my friends.

A little magic in that late Jazz/Suns game gave us the 3-0 record we were looking for in another great day in NBA betting for yours truly. Holding strong at our long-clip of a 58% winning percentage, we march on and try not to feel too fat and sassy about our wins. Happy Friday-Eve everyone!

Parlay, Mavericks win and Bucks/Mavericks over 226 (-110), 1 unit to win 2.38 units: What was that from the Mavericks last night? It wasn’t a good look, I’ll tell ya that. And what about the Bucks on Tuesday? The Warriors got beaten by 50 plus by the Raptors and then not only hung with but overcame Milwaukee at home. Curry dropping 41 was certainly a part of that, as well as Giannis’ lingering knee issues. I think Luka will be the story tonight. Before that debacle last night against the Rockets, the Mavericks have been on a tear lately. Standing at 7th in the Western Conference standings, Dallas won 5 games in a row and 7 of their last 9 before losing to Houston. Doncic was a huge part of their success. Luka has been routinely scoring 30-40 points and his supporting cast has been stellar, too. Hardaway Jr., Porzingis, Richardson, Finney-Smith, and others can all contribute and do so on a regular basis. Luka is never alone on offense, and it’s one reason why he really thrives. Milwaukee is one of the fastest teams in the league (3rd overall in tempo) and a top 5 offense in scoring and efficiency. In fact, no team scores more than the Bucks on a regular basis. Giannis is doubtful tonight, which obviously affects their output, but I still think the Bucks try to boat-race the Mavericks and push the pace on Dallas’ home floor. With or without the “Greek Freak,” they’re hungry for a win. And we all know Luka and company can keep pace. I think the Mavericks, who recently beat the Jazz at home, show up and get a big victory Thursday night against another elite team. The total is a bit deflated because of Giannis’ absence, so I’ll take advantage and parlay the over into it.

Suns/Clippers over 221 (-110), 2 units: The big showdown of the night is yet another Western Conference battle of elites as the Suns travel to LA to face the Clippers off a huge win against the Jazz. We got a little lucky last night when we hit the over, but I like it even more at a reduced line tonight.

The Jazz and Suns game was a terrific watch. Donovan Mitchell dropped 41, Devin Booker had 35, Rudy Gobert had an astounding 18 rebounds, and Chris Paul unsurprisingly led both teams with 9 assists but more importantly, served as court-general when it mattered most. I’ve talked about it before and I’ll say it again– the addition of Chris Paul on the Suns is something special. The Suns are virtually the same exact team as they were in previous years, except for the addition of Paul. CP3 leads like Lebron (they’re best friends for a reason) and has a moxie and leadership style similar to Kobe Bryant. He has a way of making plays in the clutch– he had the game’s 2 final points at the end of OT to seal the win, go figure– and knows how to bring the best out of his teammates. The line is appropriately favoring the Clippers by 6 points tonight. They’re healthy, off 2 days of rest and they’ve been playing great basketball on both sides of the floor. I want to lean to the Phoenix side so I’ll fade that play today.

So then why do I like the over? The Suns played magnificent defense last night. They held the Jazz to only 25% from beyond the arc and, despite my prognosis, slowed down the game and never allowed the Jazz to pull away. They also dominated at the rim, out-rebounding the Jazz 61-45. A performance like that is playoff-worthy and it’s one reason why I like the Suns in the playoffs. But they are human. Humans get tired, even pro-athletes, and I could see their defense being a little more permissive tonight. LAC is second only to the Nets in offensive efficiency according to Hollinger’s metrics. They’re 8th overall in points per game, too. In the Clippers’ last game against the Blazers, Paul George dazzled with 22 points in the first quarter. He also dropped 39 on the Suns in their last battle, a game that ended right around tonight’s total at 219 points. But that was against a different Phoenix unit. The Suns are more confident and more able on the offensive end and they’ll need to be to stay within pace of the Clippers. LAC is 59.3% ATS at home, a stat that rivals the Suns’ NBA leading ATS record of 33-17 overall (66%). This should be a fantastic back and forth game, but I expect less of a war at the rim and more of a beautiful display of great shooters at a heightened pace. Give me the over!

Blazers +6 (-110), 1.5 units: Speaking of last night’s game (as I referenced a-plenty in the pick above), how well will the Jazz do tonight? I’m not so sure. That has to feel like a pretty deflating game, in a contest where you expect to win as the Western Conference’s leading team, only to get bested by one of your arch-rivals. The Jazz have now lost two in a row against their nemeses of the West and here comes another on Thursday night. And the Blazers need a win, too. Portland won 5 of their last 6 games before dropping their last contest to the Clippers, a game we knew was coming and we won a little money from, but this is a better setup for the Blazers. No stranger to and no fears of being a road warrior, the Blazers are one of the better NBA teams away from Portland, covering 60% of the time this season (15-10 overall). In recent past, they won 4 straight games on the road. Even though Utah didn’t win, the Jazz are just as beat up and exhausted as the Suns after last night. Maybe even more so since all that energy was spent and it amounted to a loss. I see a big Damian Lillard game tonight, aided by a healthy and rested unit that should come out with far more energy than the Jazz. Give me the Blazers to cover.

Decent day in NBA betting yesterday– we went 2-2 overall but one loss was a parlay and we were pretty dead-on about the Clippers. More opportunity today, more wins on the horizon. Let’s go!

Wizards -3.5 (-110), 1.5 units: Bradley Beal is questionable tonight and obviously we hope he plays, but even without Beal I like the Wizards in this spot. Or maybe I should say, I really dislike the Magic in this spot. Orlando’s big game was 3 days ago against the Nuggets and they played really well for 2.5 quarters. Motivated no doubt by the Aaron Gordon trade and out to prove they can still hang, they very nearly shocked the Nuggets… that is, until Denver decided to turn up the heat and they ended up easily winning (and nearly covering) by 10 points. The Magic led by as much as 18 in that contest but it wasn’t enough. Aaron Gordon actually ended up being the game’s leading scorer, go figure, and all hopes for an Orlando victory were torn to shreds. This is an obvious let-down spot for them tonight. Their season is over, and what residual effects does that loss against Denver still carry? One thing is for sure, Russel Westbrook won’t be affected by the Wizards’ record or playoff chances. The enigma that is Russel Westbrook plays hard no matter what and I could see him destroying an Orlando team that’s very injured and especially in the last 2 games, very poor on defense. I’ll take the Wizards for a light cover.

Nets/Pelicans over 233.5 (-110), 2.5 units: I’m not sure if you’ve noticed but New Orleans has been absolutely abysmal on defense lately. Allowing 117.6 points in their last 5 games and now ranked 26th in points allowed and 28th in Hollinger’s defensive efficiency ratings, this game does not set up well for a beat-up Pelicans team. Zion should play but Brandon Ingram is questionable and Josh Hart and Nickeil Alexander-Walker are out tonight. You know who’s NOT out tonight? Kevin Durant. And what a spot for the former MVP to be back in the spotlight. James Harden won’t play, which isn’t great for their offense, but I expect a big night from Kyrie and Durant and other Nets’ contributors to have their own success throughout the 48 minutes. I also expect a big game from Zion. Aldridge and Griffin will provide some front court support but Zion has shown confidence and an aggressive ability to drive the ball no matter who’s down low. He’ll have to push the pace to keep up with Brooklyn. A unique 2+ unit play for me, I see no reason why the Nets won’t show out tonight and send this total soaring over.

Jazz/Suns over 227 (-110), 2 units: This is the marquee matchup Wednesday night and I’m pretty damn excited to watch. The Utah Jazz travel to Phoenix to take on a white-hot team for the 2nd game in a row. Two short nights ago, the Jazz lost to the surging Dallas Mavericks. While that’s nothing to be ashamed of, especially with their dominant Western Conference record and position, it’ll be a tall task to turn around and win tonight in Phoenix. The Suns have won 10 of their last 12 games and have now scored 6 straight victories in a row. Remarkably, much of that success is due to their efforts on offense. In their last four games, the Suns have averaged a staggering 127.75 points per contest. Not your momma’s Suns, eh? We know about their ability on defense but they keep improving on the other side of the court. They’re a top 10 team in points per game and Hollinger metrics ranks them as 7th overall in offensive efficiency. The Jazz? They rank even better at 3rd overall in offensive efficiency. I think that’s the story of this game. Phoenix has increased their tempo significantly, now ranking 24th overall in pace, and I think they continue to use that recipe to try and overwhelm the Jazz. In their own right, the Jazz won’t be intimidated and it’s unlikely they’ll be stifled by the Suns’ defense. Utah averages 117 ppg and they’re top 5 in offensive rebounding– they’ll get theirs. I love this over tonight in what should be a great game with a testy playoff feel! Wooey!