Well yesterday was an absurd day in the conference tournament world for more reasons than one, but we still escaped on the right side of half our picks. Motivation is the most important factor heading into these rivalries– if a team doesn’t care as much as another (i.e. Marshall, Providence, Stanford, etc.), big upsets and blown lines are bound to occur. Let’s get after it for today’s picks:

Michigan State/Maryland under 130.5 (-110), 1.5 units: I’m going to avoid a side here since I like the way both these teams are playing heading into the Big 10 Tourney. The narrative is out there and it’s probably legit that Tom Izzo, in another conference tournament with his beady little eyes still set on making the big dance, is the best side here today. That may be right, but Maryland has been playing some pretty good basketball, too. The Terps arrive in Indianapolis now the losers of 2 straight games but they were on a 5 game win-streak before that. Efforts from the Maryland defense have been particularly noteworthy, holding opponents to only 58.8 ppg during that stretch. Those are UVA-like numbers. The truth is, MD has been pretty solid all year on defense, allowing only 64.7 ppg during the season and holding a top 40 adjusted defense ranking nearly all year on sites like KenPom and Haslametrics. Michigan State hasn’t done too bad either, allowing only 67.7 ppg in their last 7 contests and against more impressive offenses like Michigan and Ohio State. Yesterday’s two Big 10 conference games flew under, and maybe some of that has to do with the mega-sight that is Lucas Oil Stadium, but I think some of it is just the nature of the Big 10. Nerves are high, solid coaching; defenses step up. Give me another under in what should be a testy conference with two motivated teams.

Lean, Georgetown +8 (-110): In no way are the Hoyas on the same level as Villanova, but there are a few notable things that came out of Georgetown’s win against Marquette yesterday. Of course I was on the Marquette side, shutter, but nonetheless. Georgetown does a great job at offensive rebounding. Maybe this shouldn’t come as a shock having a coach like Patrick Ewing at the helm, but in that sense Villanova and Georgetown are pretty similar. Both rely on second-chance scoring opportunities and foul shooting to pull ahead from opponents. And it shows. In field goal percentage, the Hoyas were just as abysmal as Marquette Wednesday. Both shot under 40% from the field and both shot a measly 21% from beyond the arc. If Villanova plays with motivation and form and starts on fire from beyond the arc, this game could get out of hand. If it’s a gritty game down-low where players are fighting for rebounds, I like the Hoyas’ chances. This is a watch-and-see game for me, but I would lean Georgetown getting points.

UVA -5.5 (-105), 2 units: This is just a question of motivation. If the UVA that we know shows up and plays motivated at full strength, a solid Syracuse team may not have much of a chance. Syracuse is capable of scoring fast and in bunches, but the Cavaliers’ defense has enough to stifle the best offenses. The question lies in the Orangemen’s ability to penetrate UVA’s front court with fast-break and layup opportunities, two areas where they’re one of the best in the country and two ways that pose a real threat to UVA. If a team is successful at converting points off steals in particular, a stat that the Orangemen rank 19th best in the country, the Cavaliers perform noticeably worse. All that aside, I think the favorite will win and cover today. UVA coach Tony Bennett is one of the more professional, buttoned up coaches in the game, and he can’t be particularly happy with the way UVA ended their season. Losing 3 out of their last 5, and to in-conference rivals they hate like Duke and Florida State, must leave a bad taste in his mouth. I expect UVA to assert themselves in the ACC Tournament and make a statement against Syracuse.

Parlay: Ohio State wins + MIN/OSU under 146 (1 unit to win 1.5): Did you see the Minnesota vs. Northwestern game last night? Well I did and wow, that was some shitty basketball. Missed shots, turnovers, bodies flailing around the floor, guards unable to maintain their dribble, poor shot choice; I could go on and on. Minnesota was lucky to escape with a win. Holding a 7-point lead entering the final 5 minutes of play, Northwestern never scored again in the game’s final 4+ minutes which, considering how many free throws and shot opportunities are at the end of 99% of college games, is pretty staggering. Northwestern’s inefficiency was the real reason why the Gophers won. Now Minnesota has to shake that off, push through last night’s nightmares and take on a hungry Buckeyes team in the same menacing stadium. Good luck. Ohio State ended their season is regrettable fashion, losing against Michigan, Michigan State, Iowa and Illinois. Sure that might be the best of the best in the Big 10, but that’s not who we thought Ohio State was and it’s certainly not who they think they are. I think the Buckeyes will be very motivated today. With the defensive energy of Big 10 basketball and that stadium in Indianapolis, along with how ineffective Minnesota looks, this should result in another under, too.

Georgia Tech -9.5 (-105), 1.5 units: I really like Georgia Tech as a flyer to win the ACC Tournament (+500 right now). The Yellow Jackets have a fantastic offense, adjusted #25 on KenPom and #22 on Haslametrics (I think they may be even better), and they’re riding a 6 game winning streak into the ACC bracket. We’ve seen steady improvements in their defense, too. Miami put out a good showing on Wednesday against Pitt and that makes me want to fade them even more. The Hurricanes are one of the most up and down, inconsistent teams in the country and they could be running into a real buzz-saw today. Last time these two teams faced, the Yellow Jackets obliterated the Hurricanes in every facet of the game. Sometimes that’s an aberration because of motivation or just a good spot, but I don’t think that’s the case here. Georgia Tech is just better at playing basketball. GA Tech shot 57% from the field, 42% from 3 point land, 100% from the free throw line, and had 9 more rebounds than Miami. One good sign I look for is how a team performs in the second half when they have the game in hand. Tech was winning their first matchup 48-18 at the break; the game was over. But in the second half the Yellow Jackets kept pace and nearly out-scored Miami again, losing only by a 3 point margin by solidifying a 27 point beat-down. I don’t know if the blowout with look the exact same today, but I like a double-digit with for Georgia Tech, easily.

Wisconsin -5 (-110), 1.5 units: If you didn’t listen to TheOddsBreaker himself on yesterday’s ATS.io podcast, you should. The podcasts on this site and on that weekly pod with ATS.io feature Big 10 conversation and I really like what Kiev had to say yesterday on Wisconsin. The Badgers are stacked with seniors, so they have way more experience than most Big 10 teams, and they have not played to expectations this season. Needless to say, they’re motivated and they’ve said as much in the media. Penn State plays really well at times and then look like one of the crappiest Big 10 teams at other times. I don’t trust them today after that big comeback win against an inferior team. They probably should have lost. I’ll take a shot on a motivated, experienced Badgers squad who could have a sneaky chance at winning their conference tournament.

Well we had a nice 2-2 night Tuesday. Notre Dame pulled another Notre Dame and only decided to play in the last 10 minutes, while Gonzaga clearly should have covered since they were down by 14 and surged back to win easily by 10. Again I feel we were on the right sides there but oh well. Follow me on Twitter if you don’t already– last night I put out live bets on the Flyers and Gonzaga when both were way down and they both hit. I do this routinely to help my followers and it makes for some exciting community wagers. Onto our hump day picks in college hoops!

NC State wins (+140), 2 units: This is a tough game to handicap on two teams who ended their seasons hot, albeit one a bit hotter than the other. The NC State Wolfpack enter Wednesday night winners of 5 in a row; Syracuse won 6 of their last 8. Syracuse has stacked up impressive wins against Notre Dame, North Carolina, and two against NC State. NC State’s marquee victories came against Virginia and Notre Dame. I’m more impressed by the Wolfpack’s streak though, since that UVA game was a PRIME spot for the Cavaliers and since 4 of the Wolfpack’s last 5 wins came away from their home court. NC State is a nice 6-3-1 ATS this year on the road. Syracuse– not so much. The Orangemen look like a different team on the road: they’re 2-7 ATS (22%) and they’ve allowed 81.8 ppg against conference opponents away from New York. Statistically, both teams are mostly evenly matched, but for me this is NC State’s opportunity to steal a win. They’re more apt away from home and they’ve ended the season on a real hot streak. Not to mention they have added motivation in a supreme revenge spot. Give me the team with more momentum and more to prove in an upset win to start off my Wednesday wagers!

Lean, Miami +9 (-110): Be careful betting this game. Miami is coming off a good win where they caught Pittsburgh last night but “da U” has been one of the more inconsistent and abysmal teams in the ACC. Clemson has been a bit up and down, too, although they did end the season winning 7 of their last 9 games. Clemson should win this game, but 9 points is a lot for a team that only beat Miami by 8 and 1 point margins this season. I expect Miami to play this game closer for most of the game, but the line at 9 is factoring in Clemson’s added rest and an expectant let-down spot for the Hurricanes. It’s probably dead on, but again– proceed with caution.

Marquette -2.5 (-115), 1 unit: My first gut reaction was to bet on Marquette today and I’m going to follow that feeling (it tends to be more right than we like to admit). I think the impulse came from the perception that Georgetown has been pretty horrible away from DC. At second glance, Georgetown is actually 4-4 ATS, so not too horrible, while Marquette is actually the worse away team at 5-7 ATS. Yet I still like Marquette (I know I’m not making much sense here). I like Marquette because of how their one and only game against the Hoyas looked earlier this year. I know it was back in early January, but how the game played out was revealing. The Golden Eagles visited Georgetown, where the Hoyas are definitely more comfortable and capable, and the home team was in full control for the first half of that game. Then Marquette started to slowly grind and come back. After starting off slow and overcoming an 18 point deficit, Jamal Cain and company edged out Georgetown for a 64-60 win. One could look at that outcome and look at a revenge wager on the Hoyas. I can see that. But what I see is a Hoyas team that was in a great spot at home and still lost to a better team. How will Georgetown fair in a tougher spot at cavernous Madison Square Garden? Marquette plays really good defense against close to mid-range shots, which is where the Hoyas bread their butter. They should also slow down the pace of the game today and force Georgetown to play out of rhythm, something they couldn’t do in the first contest but would have worked to their advantage. I’ll take what I see as a more resilient team that matches up well against their foe. Take Marquette.

Loyola MD/Army under 137.5 (-110), 1.5 units: Army is 3-0 ATS in neutral site games this year and 8-3 away from their home court. They have also been a much better and more consistent team than Loyola. That being said, Army ranks very highly in KenPom’s luck rating (40th in the nation) and have a rather crappy offense, particularly at the free throw line (ranked a staggering 346th overall in the country on Haslametrics). While I wanted to taker Army initially, I can’t do it (their ranking of 326th in positive momentum on Haslametrics doesn’t help either). Both of these teams rely and win games with their defenses, and both units are fantastic at preventing the other team from scoring at the mid-range level. No matter who you’re matching up against, this is a good prognosis for an under play since most NCAAM’s basketball is either won or lost between the rim and 3-point line. Neither team is inefficient at preventing near-proximity shots or long-range shooting either. In a game where both teams haven’t faced each other yet and one that should be played at a methodical pace, the under feels like the strongest play.

Nebraska +6.5 (-115), 1.5 units: This is just too many points for an up and down Nittany Lions team. Penn State lost once at home against the Cornhuskers and then beat Nebraska on the road by 3 points. Not sure what to take from that, but Nebraska tends to challenge opponents that can’t match their pace. Nebraska is exceptional on defense despite their fast tempo, which can really throw teams off. Unless your Iowa or Michigan or Illinois, it’s unlikely that the Cornhuskers will be overly intimidated or forced to reinvent their style. Penn State is rated more highly on KenPom and Haslametrics and ranked higher in the Big 10, but I think these are two pretty even teams, especially on a neutral court. I’ve taken the Nittany Lions is good spots this year and it’s paid dividends here and there, but I like this spot better for a Nebraska team coming off 2 losses against a team they know they can beat. In my opinion, Penn State’s recent above-average defensive performances against Maryland and Minnesota are more about the disappointing play of those teams– Penn State’s defense has allowed a ton of points in 2021 and Nebraska’s offense has actually looked better since losing their star guard Teddy Allen. This line is sneaky at 6.5; it’s daring you to take the team from Happy Valley. I wouldn’t. I don’t think the Nittany Lions have the offensive prowess to glide into an easy 2+ possession win tonight. Take the Cornhuskers getting points.

Marshall -9.5 (-110), 2 units: This is another revealing line in a game that plays right into Marshall’s wheelhouse. Rice and Marshall have yet to face each other in the 2020-2021 season, which I think is a pretty significant factoid for today’s showdown. Rice could have used a game in-season against the Thundering Herd to study matchups and hope to adjust today, but they have no such film. Marshall plays with a very fast tempo and scores over 80 ppg. Rice plays with a fairly fast tempo and plays some of the worst defense in Conference USA (and in the nation, for that matter). That’s a recipe for 40 minutes of basketball that could get out of hand quick. Rice overcame a near comeback last night against a very inferior conference team in Southern Miss. The Owls cannot afford to let Marshall gain steam tonight or it’ll be a very different story; Marshall is a huge upgrade in class from the bottom-feeder they faced Tuesday. The Thundering Herd are resilient, too, ranked 8th in the country in “away-from-home” stats on Haslametrics. This game is a really great setup for a blowout and I can’t find a reason to think otherwise. Marshall wins by substantial double digits in this one.

UNC Greensboro gave us the big win we needed last night in college hoops; I was dead wrong about Appalachian State– well done Mountaineers!– and the other two losses were just bad beats. As I noted on my twitter account, Sometimes you have the right side and you still lose. Bet the right side the right way long term and you’ll come out on top more often. Let’s move onto Tuesday with another full slate of conference tournament play!

Iona -5.5 (-110), 1.5 units: This game sets up well for the Iona Gaels. Heading into their conference tournament winning 6 of their last 8 games, one of Iona’s only losses to end the year was against Quinnipiac. Of course that was on the road and coincided with a stretch of ineffective offense to end the 1st half, not to mention a host of turnovers throughout the game that gave the Bobcats easy buckets. Iona is harder to predict than most MAAC teams since they haven’t played as many games. COVID struck them hard this season. When they have played, we’ve learned a few things about the Gaels– they’re great at preventing shot attempts (ranked 21st on Haslametrics) and they have issues turning the ball over. They also have arguably the best player in the MAAC in guard Isaiah Ross, who led the conference in scoring with 20.5 points a game. Even better, he’s shooting 48.9% from the floor and a ridiculous 41.4% behind the arc. The Bobcats are a decent team capable of playing great defense at times, but there are too many intangibles working against them today. Iona has the revenge angle, the best player on the court, and easily the best coach. Rick Pitino will have the kids ready to play– just like he did after that long layoff win against Manhattan– and I have to believe Iona will clean up their turnover problem in this rematch. Better play, better angle, way better coach– give me the Gaels to win by more than 2 possessions.

Notre Dame -8 (-110), 1.5 units: Does Notre Dame deserve to be favored by 8 here on a neutral court? To the layperson, maybe not. Casual bettors often misinterpret the reasons behind handicapping. The books list lines at a certain number not because they think that’s exactly where the game will land, but because it’s the best estimate of where they project the public thinks the game will land. That creates the most bets on both sides, which guarantees them money. If you’re like me and you’ve been burned by the Irish, it’s hard to take their side. Notre Dame tends to play down to their competition or play way up to their competition, so they’re a bit tough to predict. The Irish were surging for awhile in February, only to finish losing 4 of their last 5. They beat Florida State in their last contest, which was quite impressive, but that might’ve been more about the Seminoles letting themselves down once again on the road. I’m choosing Notre Dame today based on how they should perform against the Demon Deacons. Wake Forest is not on the same level as the Irish. Although they may be more similar on defense, Notre Dame has a prolific offense capable of stacking up points against any Division 1 opponent. They’re great at near-proximity shots (ranked 13th on Haslametrics) and at 3-point shooting (ranked 54th on Haslametrics), making them a difficult scoring team to defend. Wake Forest really struggles on the defensive end of the floor and Notre Dame should be able to pull away like they did in their first matchup. The Demon Deacons, although going up against an average defense today, are not nearly competent enough to keep up with the Irish. They’re also ranked near the bottom of the nation (345th) in momentum right now, playing some of their worst basketball of the year to end the season. Lightning could strike and demolish our bet on the Irish once again, but the right side is Notre Dame.

Cleveland State -2 (-115), 2 units: Oakland played the perfect game yesterday to steal a win over Northern Kentucky. The Norse only shot 33.3% from the field and a subpar 23% from beyond the arc. They also turned the ball over 5 more times than the Grizzlies. Oakland has some positive momentum heading into tonight’s Horizon Conference Final but I don’t buy it. Defense will be the difference in this game. Ranked 108th in defensive efficiency on Haslametrics, the Vikings boast one of the better units in the conference. They’re especially good defending the long-ball, holding opponents to only 29.3% in three-point shooting percentage, which is 12th in the nation. While the Vikings’ offense isn’t as prolific, Oakland won’t be able to pull away in this contest, even if they’re winning the turnover battle and shooting well above their norm. These two teams faced one another on Oakland’s home hardwood twice earlier this year. Twice Oakland was bested by Cleveland State. In the first matchup, the Vikings led and controlled the entire contest. The second game only ended by a 2 point margin, but Oakland shot a ridiculous 54.4% from the field, a full 6 percentage points better than Cleveland State. And Cleveland State still won. This game should look more like their first matchup, and it can’t help the Grizzlies that it’s on a neutral court this time. I’ll take Cleveland State by one humble possession.

Gonzaga -13 (-110), 2 units: I was hoping to bet on BYU tonight, thinking the Cougars would take care of business in a big fashion Monday night. Instead, Pepperdine was competitive for all 40 minutes and pushed the game into overtime. BYU took over in extra innings, but I don’t like their outlook heading into tonight against the nation’s #1 team. Unlike Baylor and Michigan and many top 25 teams that had fluctuating performances to end the regular season, Gonzaga has given us no reason to believe they’re taking their foot off the gas. The Bulldogs only scored 1 point in the final 4 minutes of yesterday’s first tournament game against St. Mary’s and they still won by 23 points. If you have a shot at beating Gonzaga, you gotta play perfect basketball. Last time BYU faced the nation’s #1 team they were at home in an ideal spot and still lost by 11. In their first battle of the year, they lost at Gonzaga by 17. The Bulldogs match up well with everyone but I especially like how they’ll match up tonight. Playing an OT game late into the night (St. Mary’s vs. Gonzaga started 2 hours earlier, too) to me means the BYU defense will be tired Tuesday. Not a great prognosis against a team that scores over 91 ppg. Gonzaga, on the other hand, probably feels like they just played a scrimmage game, easily coasting through the 2nd half against the Gaels last night. Despite what some pundits might tell you, Gonzaga cares about winning the West Coast Conference Tournament and winning it with authority. Better spot, neutral court, and perhaps the best team in America– the Bulldogs should cover.