A fine 1-1 start to the week– let’s get more angles and more wins, shall we?

Pacers win (EVEN), 1.5 units: Even if Domantas Sabonis and Malcolm Brogdon don’t play, I’ll still be on the Pacers tonight (but just for 1 unit in that case). Chicago is at the start of a 5 game road trip Tuesday that includes tough games against Atlanta and Memphis. Off a rare win against the Nets, Zach LaVine and company head to Indiana to face a Pacers team that’s been struggling lately. The Pacers recently beat the Spurs in OT, a win they needed, but before that they lost against the Wizards, Hornets, and only scored 87 in a loss against Miami. They need to find more rhythm on offense. Still, Indiana is a balanced team and a better team than Chicago. The Pacers are top 5 in assists per game and above average in field goal percentage. They also rank 11th overall in defensive efficiency. I like the addition of Nikola Vucevic for Chicago but after that big win against Brooklyn, Chi-town might feel a little fat and sassy coming into this contest tonight. On paper and in the truest form, the Bulls still aren’t as talented and capable as Indiana. After getting 3 days rest, I think all of Indiana’s key contributors will suit up tonight. It’s a bigger game than one may think. Both teams need to start stacking up wins since a playoff seed is far from guaranteed at this point. There’s your motivation, Indiana. Now get it done!

Hawks -3.5 (-115), 1.5 units: The Pelicans could be down multiple starters tonight with Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram and Steven Adams all listed as questionable to play. The Hawks, meanwhile, are as healthy as it gets. Leadership and solid outings (and a big pay-day) from Lou Williams, dynamic scoring ability from Trae Young and consistent front court play from Clint Capela have the Hawks on a 3 game winning streak. I like how ego-less the Hawks are, too. Trae isn’t the flashiest or most arrogant star. Lou Williams is a consummate pro. And Clint Capela and other team members know how to contribute in their role. Maybe Nate McMillan should keep his job because he has Atlanta gelling and winning better than his predecessor. New Orleans already really struggles on defense and it sounds like their big-men won’t be available tonight (key word, sounds like). If Zion and Adams sit, this line will go up and this will feel like a great early play. But even if they do suit up, Atlanta is hot right now and they easily have the better spot. They’re at home tomorrow against Memphis; the Pelicans have to turn around and travel to Philly Wednesday. Advantage– Hawks. I like the over, too.

Sixers -2 (-115), 2 units: All signs point towards Joel Embiid playing tonight and ya know what I say to that? LET’S GO! The 76ers did a fantastic job staying afloat in his absence, winning 8 out of 12 games without their MVP caliber star. And Joel was the leading MVP candidate when he got injured. Make no mistake about it, if the Sixers are saying Embiid can suit up, that means he’s ready. The playoffs are peering around the corner and the Sixers don’t need to push anyone or anything to get there. They’ll get there. Still, reports say Joel is suiting up tonight and that’s an exciting prospect for Philly. Ben Simmons and Tobias Harris have done a great job the past month leading the team, although Simmons regressed a little in his last outing against Memphis. Look for that to change tonight. I can see Simmons asserting himself on a Celtics squad that’s really struggling lately on defense, especially against teams not named the Rockets and Thunder. Boston has a few recent wins in their pocket but against who? I’m not impressed. I haven’t been able to trust the Celtics all year and I absolutely don’t trust them against a motivated Philly team off a bad loss. I trust them even less knowing that they have a back-to-back against the Knicks tomorrow night. Boston hasn’t beat Philly yet this year and it won’t start tonight. Bet Philly.

Parlay, Clippers win and Clippers/Blazers under 229, 1 unit to win 1.8 units: I’m really interested in this game and think it could be the most entertaining of the night. I just think it’ll probably be the same story as always: At times, we all watch Portland and they’re white hot, they look like they’ll contend in the playoffs, they’re winning a ton of games… and then a Western Conference giant faces the Blazers and suddenly, they don’t look very exciting or nearly as capable. I hope that’s not the case, truly. Who doesn’t love watching Damian Lillard drop buckets from 38 feet in late game heroics? I know I do. He’s an electric player and probably doesn’t get all the credit he deserves. McCollum and Kanter and Covington and Jones Jr. are underrated, too. The Blazers are actually pretty stacked, at least on the offensive side. But this line favors the Clippers at almost 3 possessions for a reason. LAC has won 7 of their last 9 games. They’re also one of the few teams in the NBA who are top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency (3rd on offense and 9th on defense according to Hollinger team ratings). The line and the data tell us that the Clippers can control this game and I think they will. That means it’ll move at a super slow pace (LAC is 28th in the NBA in tempo) and the Clippers will clamp down on Portland’s star players. Lillard’s prop bet for points is set at 27.5, lower than usual, and I think it’s dead on. Dame-time will be put in uncomfortable spots he’s not used to and as long as the Clippers don’t rest anyone tonight, this game could fall significantly under the total. Bet LAC, go under. Parlay it if you dare.

After a nice break on Easter Sunday, we’re back at it riding a 122-89 (58%) record into another week of action in the NBA. My apologies ahead of time for a shorter article today– I’ll be out of town and I have a short window of time to write this out. I also admittedly don’t love a lot of these games on the slate. Onto the picks!

Nets -5.5 (-110), 2 units: This is a trap game for the Knicks. New York will head into this matchup fired up with their heart-breaking loss against Brooklyn not yet lost in their memory. Julius Randle almost blew up the court at the end of that contest and I wouldn’t want to be his opposition tonight. That being said, Randle had his way with the Nets in the last contest and I think that changes drastically Monday. The Knicks are healthy, but so are the Nets. Harden, Kyrie, and most importantly– LeMarcus Aldridge will suit up tonight and face-off against Randle and that tough front court for New York. Randle won’t have the same output and success against Aldridge, and the Nets dynamic shooters should be able to control the pace of this game. Even worse for New York– there’s a chance Kevin Durant could suit up in this one. Yikes. Either way, I think the Nets show no mercy and no intimidation against the Knicks, who lately haven’t looked very crisp. I’ll take the villain to cover and I really think it could get ugly.

Avoid Wizards/Raptors: It’s early so forgive me if I’m not seeing a more crystallized angle here, but I really think you should avoid this game. Are there any two teams more up and down than the Wizards and Raptors? Toronto was on a mile-long losing streak and then they beat the Curry-less Warriors by 50? What the heck? The Wizards contend and look feisty against elite teams at times and then get absolutely crushed in other moments. Is Beal playing tonight? Who knows. Both teams are injured and volatile. Naa– AVOID.

Mavericks +5.5 (-110), 1.5 units: The Jazz are the Jazz, they’re elite, we get it, borrriiinnggg. But let’s talk about Dallas. The Mavericks have now won 7 of their last 10 games and ride a 4 game winning streak into this showdown on Monday night. Even with Kristap Porzingis (he should return tonight) absent in a few spots, they’re finding ways to win on both offense and defense. That’s a good sign for a team that was really struggling to stop anyone from scoring in the first half of the season. In their 4 game win streak, Luka Doncic has averaged over 28 points and 6 assists per game. Dallas is at home and they travel to Houston in 2 days to play the fledgling Rockets. In other words, all hands on deck and complete focus will be on this game. The Jazz host the Western Conference enigma Phoenix Suns in two days– will they be looking over their shoulder? I’m not sure but with the way Doncic and the Mavericks have played lately, I have to look their way. This is too many points in a game that should be very contentious. Give me the dog!

My NBA Picks are 10-5 the last 3 days (66%)– this is a pretty crappy lineup of games today with a ton of huge favorites, but I reckon I’ve managed to find a few angles. Let’s keep stacking more wins!

Mavericks -4.5 (-110) if no Bradley Beal,* 1.5 units: The Mavericks are on their 3rd game in 4 days so there’s a chance they’re a bit fatigued here, but if no Bradley Beal, why wouldn’t I side with the Mavs to cover? Kristap Porzingis is out tonight, too, but Washington has showed little to no signs of life without their star. If Russel Westbrook can’t produce a monstrous game like he did against Indiana, the Wizards won’t be able to keep up with a Dallas team that’s finding different ways to win every night and seems to be improving every game on defense. Even more impressive– they’ve done it on the road. The Mavericks would like nothing more than to head back home and rest Sunday knowing they got a clean 4 wins in a row before the Jazz come into town. The Wizards– we’re starting to teeter on that time of year where they really don’t have much to be motivated for. I’m on the Mavs tonight, assuming Beal doesn’t play.

Cavs/Heat under 208.5 (-110), 2 units: This is a pretty simple handicap, ready? The Heat defense is getting better and better. In their last 3 contests, they’ve allowed 109, 87, and 88 points. Comparatively, the last time the Cavs broke 100 points? 10 days ago against Chicago’s inconsistent defense. In their last 4 games, Cleveland has scored 94, 75, 98, and 86. They lost all four games, by the way. The Cavaliers rank dead last in the NBA in points per game and also rank dead last in offensive efficiency. Against a healthy Miami team? They’ll be lucky to score over 90 points. Don’t overthink this. Hammer the under.

Lean, Knicks -1.5 (-110): The Knicks are starting to raise concerns as the season progresses Spring and the playoffs loom only one month away. You would think, against lowly Detroit, that the Knicks could muster a win here. They damn-sure need it.

Bucks -6 (-105), 2 units: I realize this is a back-to-back for Milwaukee on the road but it’s the second straight game in a row for the Kings, too. This line is sneaky. The Bucks really should be favored by more. I don’t care that they’re on the road 2 nights in a row either– they’re healthy and they’ll get a rare 3 days of rest after this contest. The Kings hit the road Monday and looked awful last night. Maybe I’m missing something in this line but I’ll stick with the value-opportunity I see it as. Bucks win big again.