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College Basketball Final 4 Plays – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
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Houston vs Baylor -5.5 O/U 134

This will be a wonderful matchup and I can’t wait to see it go down.  This is a pretty sizable spread for a 1 facing a 2 and I think there might be some narrative problems here with this game.  Houston has only faced double digit seeds so far to get to the final 4.  This has never happened before.   Why should that matter?  Houston plays in the AAC is a narrative that I bought into some but they also smacked around some decent teams in the non-conference and they handled Memphis twice who won the NIT tournament and is better than half of the NCAA tournament teams themselves.  Baylor is looked at as having a great defense and I think there are great things about it and bad things about it.  Baylor ranks only 120th in opponent effective FG%.  The fact that their defense ranks 3rd in turning the ball over, makes them look a little better than they might be.   I am concerned that the refs could be calling fouls on them when they apply their great ball pressure.  One question that I have is, how different would that Arkansas game have looked if their best player JD Notae hadn’t fouled out with 14 minutes left in the game?  Houston isn’t a great shooting team by any means, but they do rank number 1 in opponent effective FG% at 43.1.   Some of that is playing in the AAC but we have seen them shut teams completely down in this tournament.  The Bears plays fast and they have a better shooting percentage than the Cougars at 48.6 to 43.7%.  Neither team is all that tall but Houston does lead Baylor in rebounding the ball 40.9 top 36 per game.  I think this spread is a bit high and I actually trust Quentin Grimes to keep this game close.  I am very curious to see Houston finally playing as a dog here.  They have been a dog only once all year in their third game vs Texas Tech by +3 points.  They won by double digits that game.  I think the correct line on this game is 3.  I have this game Baylor winning 71-68 so I’ll grab the points here at 5 and might buy some back at the half if the score permits it.

Houston +5.5 – 2 stars and lean over

UCLA vs Gonzaga -14 O/U 145

Before I dig into UCLA too much, I want to give some big props to Coach Mick Cronin for slowing the game down vs Michigan and doing what it takes to win the game.  There was only 59 possessions in this game which is really what offensively inferior teams need to do to win.  In saying that, it sure helped that one of Michigan’s best players in Franz Wagner (formerly Franz Vagner but he lost that status) went 1-10 from the field and 0-4 from 3.   You can’t beat anyone playing like that.   We also have to give credit to Johnny Juzang and Tyger Campbell for playing so well in these last few games.   Lots of people are looking at the USC/Gonzaga game but I have to think that UCLA has to start out better than they did.  USC couldn’t hit open layups and 2 foot shots and quickly lost that game in the first 6 minutes.  If I’m coach Mick Cronin, I am reminding my team all week that they are 14 point dogs here.

This spread is the largest spread in Final 4 history but can we make a spread big enough for the Zags here?   Gonzaga is like Alabama in football.  They have an extra gear that they can apply if needed.  They seem to do everything that they want to do.  They seem to intimidate teams in many ways and they also seem to score whenever and however they need to.  I think that it is safe to say that UCLA will have to score over 51 points to beat Gonzaga?  Looking at UCLA’s trendline on Adjusted defense and opponent FG%, it skyrockets up since the tournament started but how much of that is luck and how much of that is real defense is the question.   UCLAs trendline on offense has been close to the same but they have at least faced some tougher defensive teams.   Gonzaga has both a good offense and a good defense and I trust Gonzaga to have the confidence to come out of the gate firing.  I have this game Gonzaga winning 81-67 but I think in-game might be the best way to approach this game.  I would like the over more if I knew that UCLA would not be getting blown out of the stadium and the Zags slowing it down knowing they have 1 more game on deck.  I think that the safest bet is the Zags first half team total over 42 ish.   That way you know that they can take time at the end if need be.

Gonzaga 1st half team total over 38 ish – 2.5 star premium and lean over 145

Final Four Picks and Predictions – April 3, 2021

By
Chris R. Farley
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Houston Cougars basketball team coming together before going into the game.

 

And then there were 4! Maybe not the fantastic, fabulous 4 we imagined, but the “Final Four” nonetheless. Hopefully up until this point you’ve read the countless articles I’ve written on the NCAA Tournament games and/or you’ve listened to the OddsBreakers many podcasts on the same subject matter. Because of that I won’t get into as much statistical depth today but I feel great about these angles. Here are my plays:

Houston +5.5 (-115), 1.5 units: I love that Baylor is in the Final Four. At times during the regular season, the Baylor Bears looked, to me, like the most dominant team in the nation. Locked in and disciplined and highly talented on both sides of the court, Baylor looked unbeatable for long stretches. Then COVID hit the Bears, as it did so many basketball teams, and it created some real advertsity for the country’s then #2 team. Baylor stumbled a little, lost 2 games, and struggled to beat teams that they likely would have dominated before the interruption. I said it way back in the beginning of March that I like teams that face some adversity before the tournament starts. I don’t think Baylor would have looked as effective in the tournament if they didn’t have that dip in performance in late February. It was a reawakening, and kids of that age probably need a little recalibration to stay supremely consistent and dominant (unless you’re Gonzaga, apparently). But you could say the same things about Houston. The Cougars had a game postponed, and then cancelled. They had a few clunkers, losing to far inferior teams like Tulsa, East Carolina and Wichita State. But since late February, no team (again, except Gonzaga) has been more consistent than the Houston Cougars. Regardless of their opponent in the AAC or in the postseason, Houston finds a way to slow the game down with their 328th ranked tempo (KenPom), they seemingly never go on scoring droughts, and their defense will challenge and pester their foe throughout 40 minutes of play. We’ve seen teams get oh so close (Memphis, Rutgers, Oregon State) but the Cougars never panic. The team is built as consistent as they play– they have no player over 6’8″ but they have 6 different players who are listed right at 6’8″ and they know how to play big in the front court. They also have dynamic guards and veteran leadership who don’t shy away from big moments.

In short, I’m incredibly impressed by both of these units. They’re among the most steady, well-coached, and effective teams in the nation on offense and defense and to me, nothing says this will be a blowout in either direction. I’ll take the dog for a healthy 5.5 units to cover this line, and I damn sure wouldn’t be surprised by an upset.

UCLA/Gonzaga under 145.5 (-110), 2 units: The line (Gonzaga -14.5) and total is telling us that this game will end with a final score of 80-65 in favor of the Bulldogs. I think that’s wrong and here’s why: this contest will go one of two ways. 1) Somehow someway the Bruins find a way to slow down an offense no one else has and that drastically effects the overall total. UCLA then covers and it falls well below 145.5 in the midst of a nerve-racking, defensive effort. UCLA isn’t going to cover and have a chance to win this game by keeping pace with Gonzaga. No team has shown an ability to do that, regardless of how good their shooters are. The Bruins are built by not making mistakes, slowing down the pace (338th on KenPom), playing really solid defense and then making the shots that count. Gonzaga is one of the fastest teams in the country and as you’ve seen so many times, they live (not love, LIVE) to boat-race their foe and force them out of their comfort zone. If UCLA can stay within their comfort zone, this total falls under. 2) The other possible result of this game is probably the more likely one– Gonzaga indeed boat-races UCLA with their 6th paced tempo and electric scoring ability. In that case you’d think it might favor an over. I don’t think so. Just like the last contest (which fell under a total of 153), the Bulldogs have shown that they’ll slow down a little bit if they have a huge lead. They also put an extra clamp down on defense– it wasn’t easy for USC to score at any point Tuesday. If they have a huge lead, Mark Few has to be thinking about the biggest game of the year in just 2 short days, too. Could he rest players in the 2nd half? Could he put in players who never get a chance to shine? It’s all possible and it all favors the under.

I find it hard to imagine that UCLA can get to 65 points against this elite Gonzaga defense that constantly flies under the radar (and understandably so) because of how mystifying they are on the other end of the court. Nerves and postseason intensity included, I’m on the under for 2 units.

MLB Plays and Predictions – 04/03/21

By
Dominik Souder
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Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees 1:05pm est

The Blue Jays and Yankees started Opening Day out in a nail biter. The game had to go to extra innings before the Blue Jays were able to seal the win in the 10th 3-2. The Bronx Bombers had no offense. Besides the Gary Sanchez homer in the 2nd, the Yankees failed to get hits. Judge and Stanton were a combined 1-10 at the plate. Toronto’s bullpen was able to completely limit the Yankees offense. After Ryu was pulled, Toronto’s relief was a combined 4.2 innings pitched with 2 hits, and 8 strikeouts.

PREDICTION: This New York team is more than embarrassed with how they were offensively on Opening Day. I expect the New York lineup to produce more runs and finally light up the scoreboard as we have all seen this team do before. The veteran ace Kluber should be able to hold this young Toronto team. (New York Yankees -170)

 

 

Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox 1:10pm est

John Means was the main story for the opener between these AL East teams. Means went 7 innings pitched, 5 strikeouts, and only allowed 1 hit. The young lefty was able to find way to shutout a veteran Boston lineup. The Red Sox were held to two hits the whole game. They were not able to provide any run support for Nathan Eovaldi who even though took the loss, still pitched really well.

PREDICTION: Saturday’s game will not be the same. Opening Day in Boston is like the Christmas of the Spring. For the Red Sox to lose like that was tough to watch for their fanbase. The Red Sox will come out more fired up, and looking for revenge after a home loss. Expect the Boston bats to come alive in this one. (Boston Red Sox -180)

 

 

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs 2:20pm est

The struggles began early in the year for Chicago as they lost to a lowly Pittsburgh team. Hendricks was only able to go 3 innings before Ross had to make a call to the pen. The Pirates struck early with a 2 run homer from Hayes. After that the Cubs struggled to fins run and left runners on base the majority of the game. Pittsburgh came out on top 5-3.

PREDICTION: Chicago does have a pretty solid lineup, and for them to go out on Opening Day and only get 3 runs, hurts their pride. The Pirates do not have a good team, and I think that loss was a real wake up call for the Cubs. (Chicago Cubs -170)

NBA Picks and Predictions – April 2, 2021

By
Chris R. Farley
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Bucks' star Giannis flexing on the court.

 

Another nice night in the NBA lands us at 2-0 overall. Good thing I only leaned those other 2 sides. It’s one thing to win a bet, it’s another thing to be dead-on in your analysis and handicap and that’s how I felt last night watching LeMarcus Aldridge starting for the Nets. He was an instant difference-maker, as I predicted, and the Hornets were no match for Brooklyn’s balanced attack. If they can keep on incorporating Aldridge into their game-plan, the sky is the limit for the Nets. Onto Friday’s picks!

Warriors +4.5 (-115), 1 unit and GS/TOR under 221.5 (-110), 1.5 units: Maybe this is a trap but good Lord, what’s wrong with the Raptors right now? Injuries haven’t helped but Toronto is showing a real lack of chemistry and leadership and it’s really starting to throw the entire unit into disarray. Lowry is out tonight and talks of him being swept up by the Heat in free agency are still looming. Golden State will be without Curry but the Warriors have showed they can really flex on defense and produce enough on offense through their young stars to get a win. If you’re giving me 4.5 points on one of the most well-coached and talented young teams in the NBA against THIS Raptors unit (who’s now lost 4 straight), I have to take it. I also like the under. Both of these teams have scored well below their season average in their last few contests and with all the injuries and uncertainty, defense should win the day.

Pacers -4.5 (-110), 1.5 units: Well we saw that loss coming 2 nights ago for Indiana. The Heat were bested by the Pacers twice at their own home court so when they found themselves down again in the 2nd half, the Heat clamped down on defense and pulled ahead. That’s an intangible that’s hard to measure but one that wins and covers in so many games; it also proves you’re an elite team. Miami has been inconsistent this year but just like we saw in the 2020 playoffs, they’re battled tested, tough, and capable of knocking off any team when the chips are down. Indiana isn’t there yet but this is a good spot for the Pacers to land a win. The Hornets just got squashed last night by the Nets, we cashed that bet, and now have to turn around and face an Indiana team that’s pissed off at home and looking for some redemption. The Hornets are a good team but now that they have a more volatile Terry Rozier at the helm, they just don’t have enough skilled facilitators and veteran leadership to win consistently. This is another bad spot for them on a long road trip before they have to face the Celtics Sunday and then the Bucks soon thereafter next week. Indiana travels to San Antonio tomorrow but I think this game means more to them and they snag a win and cover. Charlotte must be tired. Look to fade the Pacers tomorrow.

Grizzlies -6.5 (-110), 2 units: This is a perfect setup for Memphis. All the Grizzlies do is beat up on bad or average teams and lose handily to the elite. Fresh off yet another defeat at the hands of the Western Conference elite Jazz, which PS was their 3rd loss in less than a week to Utah (and that last one was close, so that must really hurt), Memphis is no doubt out for blood tonight and hungry for a big win. Well the basketball gods are giving them a treat. The last placed Minnesota Timberwolves visit Memphis ripe off a rare win against the New York Knicks, who are struggling to play consistent basketball and dealing with a bunch of injuries. Minnesota stayed the course and eked out a 1 point victory over New York on Wednesday. After tonight they’ll travel to Philadelphia tomorrow as their new road trip only gets more brutal. Minnesota and Memphis are both top 7 in pace, but unfortunately the Grizzlies are considerably better on offense and lightyears ahead of the Timberwolves on defense. Posting one of the worst point differentials in the NBA (only the Cavs are worse), I think the T-Wolves are primed to become wolf-meat. Grizzlies all day for me.

Bucks/Blazers first quarter over 59 (-115), 2.5 units and Bucks win 1st quarter (-130), 2 units: The Blazers have been on a tear lately, winning their last 4 games, all on the road, and by an average margin right around 10 points. In those games, Portland has scored 124, 122, 112, and 125. They’re lighting up the scoreboard and racing ahead of their opponents, and it’s showing. A team usually not known for their tempo, the Blazers are now the 17th fastest unit in the NBA. Milwaukee is #3. You know what other tidbit I gathered in looking at the Blazers’ last 4 wins? They don’t play much defense in the 1st quarter. Teams have scored 25, 32, 41, and 33 points in the first 12 minutes of play. And these aren’t offensive juggernauts either– we’re talking about the Pistons, Raptors, Heat and Magic– four of the lowest scoring teams in the association. The Bucks thrive by moving the ball quickly down the court, often thanks to Giannis’ long strides, and scoring quickly and in bunches. It overwhelms opponents and it reminds me of what we’re seeing in Gonzaga. This game could slow down if it gets contentious later in the game, but I love the first quarter going over. I expect a barrage of offense from two confident teams; Milwaukee is feeling equally good after their big win over LAL. For all the reasons mentioned above, I like the Bucks in the first, too.

MLB Picks and Predictions – April 2, 2021

By
Chris R. Farley
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Orioles' star Trey Mancini rounding the bases.

 

A fine start to our MLB betting in 2021 as I went 2-1 in my first post. Man, I didn’t expect to see Shane Bieber lit up like that by the Tigers early but that’s why we play the game! Opening Day is expected to bring some surprises and boy did it ever. Big favorites like the Yankees, Dodgers, and Cubs all lost. We’ll see what surprises the major leagues have in store today as most of the aces leave the mound and now we’re officially IN the season. Here are my Friday bets:

Orioles win (+155), 1.5 units and Orioles/Red Sox over 9.5 (-110), 1 unit: Let’s take a shot at the O’s, shall we?! Nathan Eovaldi leads the Red Sox in the opener against John Means and the seemingly perpetually-rebuilding Baltimore Orioles. With a WHIP of 0.98 and ERA of 4.53, John Means was the closest thing Baltimore had to an ace in 2020. The leftie brought 42 strikeouts and a few memorable wins thru August and September. Eovaldi, on the other hand, was one of the few bright spots in an otherwise abysmal year for the Red Sox. The right-hander delivered a respectable 3.72 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. Against the O’s, he’s really thrived. In his career, Eovaldi is 6-1 and has 54 strikeouts against Baltimore. So then why am I  betting on the O’s to get the W in the opener? Value baby, value. The Red Sox bats are average at best. Bogaerts and Verdugo and Martinez are all solid hitters but they’ve lost a lot of their star-power. And if 2020 was any indication, I’m not exactly intimidated to lay money against ’em. The Orioles are a good, mid-tier hitting team, ranked 17th overall in runs per game. They’ll welcome the long-awaited return of Trey Mancini on Opening Day, and Santander and Mountcastle round out a lineup that can catch good pitchers by surprise. By my estimation, this line is just too inflated and because of that, I have to take a shot on the dog. It’s a pure value play. I’ll also take a shot on the over for 1 unit– historically these teams score against each other and ultimately I don’t trust either bullpen to prevent the hits once they start coming. Just to be clear– this isn’t a parlay but two separate bets.

Dodgers -1.5 (170), 2.5 units: Opening Day vengeance is mine, says the Dodgers. It was an overall disappointing showing yesterday at Coors both by Clayton Kershaw and a Dodgers lineup that couldn’t keep pace with the Rockies. On most teams, Trevor Bauer would be an ace. The 30 year old right hander pitcher boasted a 1.73 ERA last year, second only to Shane Bieber, and a WHIP of 0.79. His addition to an already stacked and talented Dodgers squad is pretty scary and it should scare the Rockies on Friday. Antonio Senzatela is a solid pitcher but no match for a motivated Dodgers unit at Coors Field, while Bauer should be able to keep most of the Rockies’ bats at bay. The over (11.5) looks good again today but I like the LAD side even better.

Astros win (+120), 1.5 units: Rut row, Houston looked mighty confident last night, especially under Greinke’s arm. I think that continues here Friday. Christian Javier was considered one of the better rookie pitchers in 2020, showing his command and confidence in both the regular season and postseason play. In 2020, his ERA was 3.48 with a WHIP of 0.99 and he posted a 2.89 ERA/1.07 WHIP in 2 playoff games. Tested and behind a lineup that rocked Bassitt in game 1, I think Javier can expose the Athletics’ lack of offensive prowess that had so many worried before the 2021 season kicked off. The Astros have had their way with Luzardo in the past, too. Houston seems poised for some resurgence after all their recent controversy and advertsity; Brantley in particular looks ready to have a huge 2021 season. They’re the better all-around team and despite the revenge angle, I can’t pass up on a chance for plus money here. Go Astros!

MLB Plays and Predictions – 04/02/21

By
Dominik Souder
-

Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox 2:10pm est (Makeup From Rain Delay)

The Boston Red Sox come into this 2021 season looking to completely erase last years shortend season. With Chris Sale injured till like June, and Rodriguez ending his spring with dead-arm, Nathan Eovaldi will start. Eovaldi pitches well against the O’s. He was 3-0 last year, with an ERA of 0.95. On the visiting side, John Means is slated to take the mound. In 2019 Means was the AL Rookie of the Year runner up. Into his sophomore season, he was 2-4 with a 4.53 ERA in 10 starts.

PREDICTION: Boston added a veteran presence to their lineup with faces like Renfroe, Hernandez, and Marwin Gonzalez. After a very disappointing and struggle in 2020 season, the Red Sox will look to rebound and start the 2021 season off right on opening day. Look for Eovaldi to continue his success against Baltimore. (Red Sox -168)

 

 

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies 8:40pm est

Opening Day was spoiled yesterday for the Dodgers as the Rockies bested them 8-5 in Colorado. The highly favorited Dodgers and Clayton Kershaw were lit up in the first 6 innings. Kershaw went for 5.2 innings, and gave up 5 earned runs on 10 hits. Chris Owings was a big name last night for the Rockies as he was 3-3 with an RBI. Trevor Bauer and Antonio Senzatela are both scheduled to get the starts.

PREDICTION: The Dodgers offense did not look bad. Yes, Kershaw was torched early, but the Los Angeles was still able to mange 5 runs. It would have been more but Cody Bellinger’s home run was taken away after a very controversial and confusing play. However this won’t be the case again tonight. Trevor Bauer is going to do what the Dodgers gave him all that money to do, and that is to carve. The Dodgers will get their first win of the 2021 season tonight by a large margin. (Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5)

 

 

Arizona Diamondback @ San Diego Padres 10:10pm est

The Padres took the first game of the series 8-7 in a thrilling Opening Day matchup. The Padres got out the gate fast with back to back homers and were quickly up 6-1. In the 5th, Arizona fired back with a 6 run inning. The Diamondbacks were then held scoreless by the Padres bullpen. Eric Hosmer went 3-4 with 1HR and 3RBIs. Blake Snell and Merrill Kelly are the projected starters.

PREDICTION: I really like the matchup here for the Padres hitters against Merrill Kelly. Blake Snell is going to want to show his new team how good he really is. Blake Snell was a workload of a pitcher for the Rays, and with this Padres crew, they will be able to supply him with enough run support for his first win with the new team. (San Diego Padres -1.5)

 

Podcast 26 – 21 – With Marco D’Angelo and Andy Molitor – The Final 4 – Horse Racing – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-
The OddsBreakers Sports Betting Podcast
The OddsBreakers All Rights Reserved

We have a Fantastic show for you today!  Andy Molitor from Betsperts.com and Marco D’Angelo from Wagertalk.com come on to break down the Final 4 and some huge prep races this weekend!  First, Andy comes on and the guys talk about the NFL Draft coming up at the end of April.  Next, Andy and Kiev get right into the final 4 games and some of the matchup metrics that could play a huge part in each team’s success.  Then, Marco comes on to discuss more Final 4 potential betting angles as well as a free play in the UCLA vs Gonzaga game.  Next, Marco and Kiev discuss some huge Kentucky Derby prep races for this weekend in the Wood Memorial, Santa Anita Derby and the Blue Grass Stakes with some free exotic plays that Marco feels good about.  Should you need any games broken down for next week, please tweet us @TheOddsBreakers.  Have a fantastic weekend!

#Sportsbetting #Gamblingtwitter #NCAA #NFL #UFC #Horseracing

For only 24.99 a month become an ODDSBREAKER’S MEMBER and gain access to all premium picks BEFORE the line moves please visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop!

Should you need a sportsbook please visit mybookie.ag and use the promo code, “Odds200” to get a 200% sign up bonus!!!!  Terms, conditions and location apply.

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NBA Picks and Predictions – April 1, 2021

By
Chris R. Farley
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Nets' new star center, LeMarcus Aldridge.

 

Just because MLB is back (and I’m loving it already) doesn’t mean we’ll lose our grasp on the ol’ association– I was 5-2 in my free plays last night, holding steady at my 58% win clip since February 1. Two entire months. Cheers to that and cheers to all of you who read my posts. Onto our Thursday picks!

Lean, Wizards -2.5 (-110): The Pistons are so hard to predict and probably have a better bench than the Wizards. They wouldn’t be a bad underdog play. That being said, the up and down Wiz-kids are as inconsistent as their stars and maybe this is the night, one day after getting blown out by Portland, where Westbrook puts the team on his back and carries them to another win. It’s not a recipe for long-term success but they can beat bad teams and they’re due Thursday. And at least they’re at home in DC. Can’t bet either side though– these are two bad teams.

Nets -2 (-110), 2 units: This is a rare opportunity to take the Nets at a short number against a mid-tier Eastern Conference team. Harden is out tonight, I realize that, but I think this could be a “breath of fresh air” game for Brooklyn. They’re at home again tonight and they’re performing a little under expectations. They’re not blowing teams out like they usually do (although they really should have covered last night after they finally started flexing in the fourth) and they’ve had key players in and out of the lineup. Although MVP-contender James Harden is out, we’ll see the debut of LeMarcus Aldridge. Aldridge is, in my opinion, a much bigger (literally) and much more integral addition to this Nets’ lineup. The Nets are obviously stellar on offense, arguably the best in the NBA, but their front court defense lacks toughness and doesn’t have a real veteran presence. Blake Griffin can celebrate that dunk all he wants but I don’t think he’s all that good anymore. He might add another weakness to their defense, to be honest. Aldridge, on the other hand, is still very good. Kyrie loves to be the team leader (or at least loves to believe he is) and he should thrive facilitating Aldridge in his first game with Brooklyn. Kyrie’s work with Lebron and Durant showcased how good he can work with a big.

The Hornets are better than a lot of people think. They’re 4th in the Eastern Conference standings and even without LaMelo Ball, they’re a dangerous, complete team that can hang with the elite. I know the Nets are on a back-to-back tonight but they’re still in a better spot at home and they get 3 days of rest after this game. The Hornets have to turn around tomorrow night and go to Indiana and then Boston on Sunday– that’s a pretty brutal road schedule. Situational and talent advantage goes to the Nets. Bet them with confidence.

Lean, Spurs win (-110): This is a straight up pick-em as two beat up non-conference teams face each other Thursday, one needing a win more than the other. Atlanta is near the end of a long, pain-staking road trip where they’ve dropped 4 out of 6. Tomorrow they end that trip at New Orleans– that won’t be easy. San Antonio is in the opposite boat. Right in the middle of an extremely long home-stand, the Spurs just got a great win last night against Sacramento after dropping their first contest to the Kings. Flexing on defense (and we hit the under because of it), the Spurs show a lot of grit and discipline in games where they’re motivated to win. I don’t know how motivated they’ll be tonight but I know they have to be more comfortable and focused than Atlanta. Advantage- Spurs.

Nuggets -2 (-110), 2 units: Denver is lookin’ scary since Aaron Gordon joined their lineup and I’m jumping on board. No doubt the Nuggets circled this game on their calendar. They lost their first matchup to LAC at the beginning of the season and lost it by margin. Jokic, Gordon, Murray, and a very healthy supporting cast have the Nuggets on a 3 game winning streak and they’ve now won 12 of their last 15 games. I said it a million times here and I’ll say it again– with a leader like Jokic and the talent they have in general, the Nuggets are a true contender this year for an NBA title. I’m not saying I favor them but I do think they’re every bit as good as the Clippers, Lakers, and Jazz when they’re motivated and playing as a unit. One thing I really like about Denver is how unselfish they are. Jokic is probably a big reason for that. The big-man from Serbia clearly doesn’t take himself all that seriously, (reminiscent in his wild celebratory jumps throughout the All-Star game, still laughing over that) even though he may be the most skilled center in the NBA. The Clippers come into tonight after a blazing finish to March where they won 6 games in a row before blowing their last contest against Orlando. They’re also very injured tonight. Beverly, George, Rondo, and Ibaka are all out and Morris isn’t 100%. I’m a big Kawhi fan but I think the Nuggets are playing too well and want this game too much. I love Denver tonight. PS– a parlay on the Nets/Nuggets, not a bad look.

MLB Opening Day Picks and Predictions – April 1, 2021

By
Chris R. Farley
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Cleveland Indians ace Shane Bieber at the mound.

 

No, this isn’t an April Fool’s Day joke– I do bet baseball and love it just as much as basketball (though maybe not as much as football). After all the literal madness that was March with the NCAA Tournament and NBA action in full swing, MLB is a big sweet breath of fresh air. It’s super important to tread carefully at the beginning of the MLB season, just like any sport. That being said, I’ll have games I write on and bet on every day. Let’s get it rolling in my first MLB article! Opening Day, baby!

Blue Jays (+155), 1 unit: Let’s go! This is probably the game I’m most excited about on Opening Day and it’s the very first game on the slate! The new-look Toronto Blue Jays, with a ton of young-gun acquisitions, are anxious to hit the field and take on their Eastern Division, American League rivals– the mighty New York Yankees. Can the Yankees stay healthy this year? Time will tell. The question today: which pitcher will have a more dominant performance at the mound– New York’s Gerrit Cole, who had a fantastic first year with his new squad, or Hyun-Jin Ryu, the seasoned ace who spent so many years with the Dodgers and had an outstanding 2020 in Toronto. Sporting a 2.69 ERA and 1.15 WHIP last year, Ryu does a fantastic job at preventing home-runs, allowing only 8 total in 2020. Among aces, Gerrit Cole was near the bottom of that list, allowing 18 homers last season. I think that’s the difference today. We know how well the Blue Jays can rock the bat. The total in this game is set at 7.5 with extra juice, which tells me that books expect some big hits and at least a few runners on base. I think Toronto scores the upset behind a solid performance from Ryu and a few slugs from Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and company. The Blue Jays are amped to begin the season and the Yankees always have more pressure to win, especially on opening day. If only George Springer was healthy, we might get a real glimpse at Toronto’s hitting potential. Regardless, I like the upset.

Parlay- Cleveland wins and DET/CLE under 7.5, 1 unit to win 1.82 units: I don’t love that the Indians gave up Carlos Carrasco and I can’t love what they gave away on offense, but Cleveland is a team that depends on really solid pitching and coaching and that’ll be the difference in their opener. The Indians have a lot to figure out all season but they still have tremendous upside. This is a nice setup for them against a Detroit team that should be rather abysmal this year. Boyd is a solid enough ace and should hold this new-look, inexperienced Cleveland offense at bay at least for the first 5 innings. Detroit’s issues are on offense and, HELLO– here comes Shane Bieber to open their season. After a spectacular 2020, Bieber is unquestionably one of the most elite pitchers in baseball, becoming the first starting pitcher in modern history with back-to-back 13-plus-strikeout games to open a season, Bieber K’d eight more in his last outing to bring his strikeout total to 35, third-most for a pitcher through his first three starts (MLB.com). The breakout ace led the MLB with an ERA of 1.63 and had a very solid .87 WHIP. I think he’ll hold the Indians squarely on his shoulders for the beginning of the 2021 season, just like last year, and this is a damn good spot for the visitor to take advantage. I’ll take the under for what I think are two equally weak offenses and a win for “The Land.”

Dodgers/Rockies over 11 (-110), 1.5 units: The Coors-Field angle is back and what a great opening matchup to capitalize as the defending World Series champs travel to Denver in the 4:05 EST slot. Kershaw is still dominant but I’m not sure LAD wants to overuse their ace at the onset of the regular season. German Marquez has had brilliant moments in his career but he was inconsistent in 2020, displaying a 3.75 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP. Of course it’s hard to prevent hits when half of your games are at Coors Field but if his showing in the Cactus and Grapefruit Leagues are any indication, Marquez will struggle today. Colorado’s ace allowed 10 runs in his last 3 exhibition games and has shown some real issues with command. The Rockies should be able to get some hits on Kershaw– even Clayton has struggled at Coors– but I think LAD could score 10 runs in this contest. Love the over.

Other Leans I like: Twins (-110), Braves (+103), Reds -1.5 (+175), Marlins (+125)

Opening Day MLB Plays and Predictions

By
Dominik Souder
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Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox 2:10pm est

The Boston Red Sox come into this 2021 season looking to completely erase last years shortend season. With Chris Sale injured till like June, and Rodriguez ending his spring with dead-arm, Nathan Eovaldi will start. Eovaldi pitches well against the O’s. He was 3-0 last year, with an ERA of 0.95. On the visiting side, John Means is slated to take the mound. In 2019 Means was the AL Rookie of the Year runner up. Into his sophomore season, he was 2-4 with a 4.53 ERA in 10 starts.

PREDICTION: Boston added a veteran presence to their lineup with faces like Renfroe, Hernandez, and Marwin Gonzalez. After a very disappointing and struggle in 2020 season, the Red Sox will look to rebound and start the 2021 season off right on opening day. Look for Eovaldi to continue his success against Baltimore. (Red Sox -168)

 

 

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs 2:20pm est

Currently there are only two players making more than $5 mil on the Pirates roster. This mean it is looking to be another rebuilding year for Pittsburgh. Star hitter Josh Bell, and two starting pitchers Musgrove and Taillon all left to new teams. Chad Kuhl will get the opening day start for the Pirates. The Chicago Cubs will return more veteran faces in the clubhouse to start the 2021 season. Manager David Ross has Kyle Kendricks as the listed starter, who is currently ranked 12th in WAR.

PREDICTION: The Chicago Cubs lineup is still loaded with hitters. The lineup consists of names such as Baez, Rizzo, Contreras, and new face Pederson. A Pirates team who is rebuilding will not be able to produce enough runs to stay with an offense like Chicago. (Chicago Cubs -215)

 

 

Arizona Diamondback @ San Diego Padres 4:10pm est

Madison Bumgarner looks to rebound off a very rough 2020 season. In 9 starts he was 1-4 with a 6.48 ERA. The Diamondbacks also struggled as a whole team in 2020. They were 25-35, and finished 5th in the NL West. Over in San Diego, fans are getting on the bandwagon. The Padres made a big splash in the offseason. The Padres are brining in faces like Blake Snell, Joe Musgrove, and Yu Darvish. They are adding to a Padres team who for the first time since 2010 posted a winning record. Yu Darvish will get the ball for opening day.

PREDICTION: The Padres are legit. They had a very exciting offense, and Tatis Jr is one of the most exciting players in the league. The main struggle for the Padres was their pitching, but they went out and added Darvish and Snell. Bumgarner is only going to go down with age, and I look for a young eager Padres team to light him up on Opening Day. (San Diego Padres -230)

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