Not the most successful weekend in CBB for yours truly but sometimes that’s how the ball bounces. When most of my colleagues are similarly frustrated, I feel slightly better. The world of gambling college hoops can be frustrating, but overall we WIN and we win OFTEN at TheOddsBreakers. In that spirit, let’s start the week off right! Here are my picks:

Elon/Hofstra over 138.5 (-110), 1.5 units: Elon comes into this contest white hot as winners of now 6 straight, including a big win against conference giant James Madison one day ago. What a high for the Phoenix. After 2 more frustrating defeats at the hands of James Madison, Hofstra enters tonight following a solid win against Delaware. Hofstra has been the better team throughout the year and should take care of business today, but the line now sits at -5 in favor of the Pride. Although it’s a better spot for Hofstra, I can’t take them against the surging Phoenix. What I do like is the over. Both of these teams really struggle on the defensive end. Elon plays at a slow pace but they’ve shown they can turn up the intensity and tempo when they need to (citing their comeback win against JMU, for example). Hofstra controlled the pace of play against a slow Delaware unit and should control it tonight since they’re expected to play from ahead. Elon won’t be able to prevent Hofstra’s star Jalen Ray, who went off for 34 points against Delaware, nor should they be able to prevent the Pride from collecting a ton of offensive rebounds like they always do. The Pride are also rated 54th nationally in converting second-chance opportunities. In a game that’s tough to pick a side, I’ll take a shot on the total flying over.

Milwaukee +3.5 (-105), 1 unit: Milwaukee walks into tonight’s matchup against Cleveland State with a little strut after winning their last 3 games, including two hard-fought OT wins. They also beat Cleveland State in an OT game back on January 23rd. The Vikings sit atop the Horizon League despite starting the season with a rather pedestrian offense, relying more on their defense to set the tone. Lately they’ve fared better, averaging 79.4 ppg in their last 5 contests, but that stat is a bit inflated thanks to a 3-OT win that led to 108 points in their last contest against Purdue Fort-Wayne. I’m on the Milwaukee side today for a few reasons. First, if the Vikings are struggling on defense against an offense like Purdue Fort-Wayne, they could have real issues against Milwaukee. The Panthers routinely score over 80 points and if they do it again, it’ll be hard for the Vikings to keep pace. Milwaukee also thrives away from their home court (ranked 25th in the country according to Haslametrics) and against mid-range shots (ranked 21st on Haslametrics). Cleveland State lives and dies by their mid-range shot, which plays right into the Panthers’ paws. A line of 3.5 means the favorite needs to beat the other team by more than one possession, which I think favors a feisty Milwaukee team that could easily win tonight. I’ll take the points with a resilient dog.

Georgia State -7 (-110), 1.5 units: This is an interesting game. The Appalachian State Mountaineers beat Georgia State twice earlier in the year, at the Panthers’ home court. In their third matchup the Panthers bested App State with ease, a contest which added to their current 8-game win streak. Now in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Final, the Mountaineers find themselves as an unlikely opponent to Georgia State, a much less surprising team to make it this far. This feels like a trap game for App State. Riding high off of comeback and OT wins in their last two games against Texas State and Coastal Carolina, the latter of which went late into the night, the Mountaineers have to turn around and face a rival with a lot of momentum. It’s tough to go against Appalachian State on their Cinderella like run, but teams eventually regress to their mean and I think this is a prime spot for that to happen. App State is among the worst defenses in the country at defending shot opportunities, ranked 325th in defensive field goal attempt rate. The difference in this game will be from beyond the arc and at the free throw line. The Panthers wins games by converting low-range shots into fouls and free throw points. In the two games they lost against App State, they shot badly from beyond the arc (17.% and 28.6% in those games). In the game they won– 44%. I’m betting on a well-coached and talented offensive unit to find opportunities to get open and convert from long distance and create a wealth of opportunities at the free-throw line. If that happens, Georgia State will easily cover and become the 2021 Sun Belt Champions. I think it does.

UNC Greensboro -5 (-115), 2.5 units: This is another situation where we have a surprising team in the conference championship in Mercer, going up against a team everyone expected to be there in UNC Greensboro. Look back at the two contests where Mercer faced UNCG and you’ll see that the Spartans were in full command of both contests. Mercer actually shot better than UNCG in the first game and still lost by 13 points. In the second game, the Spartans let the Bears create a little comeback thanks to some untimely turnovers but UNCG never let them take the game away, thus the 3 point margin. Mercer’s run has been impressive but they are not on the same level as UNC Greensboro. Getting just 5 points on the Spartans, which is right at that 2 possession lead area, feels like a very cheap price to pay. I’ll take the favorite all day– the Spartans flex tonight.

Lean- Houston -10 (-110): I think Joe Public could be all over Memphis in this spot since they’re a solid team getting a lot of points and KenPom ranks the Tigers as the #2 defense in the nation (it was #1 yesterday before Loyola-Chicago’s recent performance). What Joe Public might forget is Houston has been as dominant as any team in the country this year, especially at home (where they cover 76.9% of their games). I expect the Cougars to surprise Memphis today; it’s a huge uptick in class from what the Tigers are used to.

Florida wins (+190), 1 unit: The Gators beat down on the Volunteers 2 months ago and although it’s hard to judge how this one will go based on a game that far back, these teams have played relatively similar seasons since then. Tennessee gets the home spot but they’re led by a talented Freshman Jaden Springer– I’m not sure if I trust a freshie in a big spot like this against a tested Gators team. I’ll take a shot on the Gators to edge out the Volunteers again– they’re a better offense and they match up well.

Loyola-Chicago -8 (-110), 1.5 units: Drake is not in the same class as Loyola-Chicago. The Bulldogs struggled to get past Missouri State in their one conference tournament matchup while the Ramblers have been in cruise control, out-classing their way through the Missouri-Valley on a 5 game win streak, 2 of which were tournament beat-downs. The Ramblers’ defense is only improving, now ranked #1 in the nation according to KenPom in adjusted efficiency. We’ve seen a great effort and above-average season from Drake, but that ends today. I think the Ramblers impose their will before the big dance.

Michigan State +8.5 (-110), 1 unit: This is an absolute must-win game for the Spartans if they hope to keep their postseason bubble-hopes alive. For the Wolverines? I’m not sure how much they care. Michigan State has the talent to score; it’s execution that they struggle with. Hunter Dickinson could control and dominate this game again, but I trust Tom Izzo to contrive ways for his Spartans to get up and at least keep this game close with so much on the line. This is the game to do it.

The parents are coming to town so it’s a busy day for yours truly. These write-ups will be a little more concise today but trust that they come with the same quality research and rigor as all of my posts. I just hit 100 articles at TheOddsBreakers yesterday and I’m so proud to be a part of this badass site! To more wins and more money in your wallets as we tackle this huge Saturday with a ton of opportunity! (If you haven’t yet, check out my UFC 259 Best Value Bets before the big card tonight!)

Florida State -6.5 (-115), 2 units: I was able to grab the Seminoles last night at this line, and then it moved up to 8 and now I see it again at this number. GRAB IT. Florida State is the significantly better team and I know they’ve had their road woes but the Irish are in a real slump. The Seminoles know they have to play better on Saturdays and away from Tallahassee. Whether the Irish know they have to improve or not doesn’t matter to me. They don’t have the prowess or size to matchup with the Seminoles. Expect Florida State to show up big today.

UConn -9.5 (-105), 1.5 units: This number is a bit expensive for me but UConn’s hype is not hyperbole. Led by Bouknight, the Huskies play hard on defense and are very effective on the offensive end. Lately they’ve wiped the floor against every Big East foe not named Villanova and I expect they’ll do the same today. Georgetown isn’t the same team on the road and they have less to play for.

Marshall -12 (-110), 1 unit: This is one of two play-back games I’ll attack today. Marshall should have beaten Charlotte much more handedly last night. Expect them to assert more of their talent and pace on Charlotte and win by 15+.

Weber State -9.5 (-110), 1 unit: Playing back on Weber State just like I did with Marshall. Weber State should have blown out Northern Colorado in the first contest but the box scores shows just a 1 point victory. Yet the books still see the Wildcats as nearly a 10 point favorite. Hmm… yup- time to flex. Joe Bookie wants you to bet the Bears again.

Vermont (-115), 1.5 units: This is a pretty square pick. No matter which angle or trend or statistic I look at, it all favors Vermont at this number. They’re a significantly better team than Hartford, at home.

Ohio State -2 (-115), 2.5 units: This is my play of the day. Ohio State has managed to fall behind Illinois in the top 25 and if you think that sounds hokey, it’s because it is. I respect what the Illini have been able to do recently, their win against Michigan was impressive, but Ohio State is in a terrific spot here and they have all the reason and motivation to show their best selves today. Make no mistake about it- the Buckeyes ARE the better team and we’ll see significant improvements from them today, particularly on defense. I think this could get ugly.

Duke/NC over 148.5 (-110), 1.5 units: There’s too much distance between the first game and today to think the defenses will suddenly step up and completely change the flow of this game. The offenses will win the battle more often than not and I think we see a back and forth slugfest where the Tar Heels edge out Duke for a second straight victory. The eye test tells me NC’s guards match up really well against the Blue Devils.

Well it’s been a good week so far. My NBA Free Picks went 12-5 for +11 units and my CBB Picks have gone 11-9 for +7 units thus far. Pretty happy to get a break from NBA action so I can squarely focus on the conference tournaments and prep for March Madness. Spring is around the corner, the madness is back, and we’re winning every week– what a time to be alive! Onto my Friday picks:

Stetson +10 (-115), 1.5 units: There’s no doubt that Liberty is the class of the ASUN. They’re on a 10-game win streak and sit comfortably atop the conference. In general, the Stetson Hatters are a pretty subpar team with a particularly weak defense. But Stetson has shown an ability to turn up and compete with the best teams in the ASUN. They beat Bellarmine is their last contest and split games with Lipscomb and Liberty. In their win against the Flames, they didn’t do anything special. In fact Liberty actually shot better than Stetson from the field. The Hatters are an interesting case but if they play up to their potential today, 10 points is way too much. Take Stetson to be competitive.

Dayton +4.5 (-110), 2 units: This line has come down some but I’d take Dayton at +3.5 too. The VCU Rams bested the Flyers twice this year already, romping them in the first game and edging out Dayton in a back and forth battle in the 2nd. Dayton actually led in the 2nd contest by 8 points before VCU turned on the jets. The Rams are stumbling into the A-10 Conference tournament, though. Averaging only 68.6 ppg in their last 5 games, their offense hasn’t exactly been impressive. Dayton, on the other hand, looks motivated and fluid. They were efficient against Rhode Island from the field, from beyond the arc, from the free-thrown line, and in rebounding. If that Dayton teams shows up today, and I can’t imagine they won’t, they’ll be a big problem for a VCU squad coming in cold.

Boston College +4 (-115), 1.5 units: This is a simple analysis– How can I trust Miami? I can’t and I don’t. The U has looked awful for a long time now. Losers of 6 in a row and 10 of their last 11, I wouldn’t bet on the Hurricanes if you paid me. Boston College isn’t an elite team either but they play with pace and their offense is effective, especially against weaker opponents. The Eagles could easily win this straight up.

Jacksonville State +7.5 (-110), 2 units: The Belmont Bruins, who once had a 21 game winning streak and sat atop the Ohio Valley Conference like gods, have lost 2 of their last 3 games to end their season. They’re also 0-3 ATS in those contests. Jacksonville State proved how underestimated they are last night in an OT win against Murray State, making clutch shots and key plays at the most crucial spots in the game. Winners of 8 of their last 9 games, the Gamecocks bring real momentum and confidence into today’s big clash; I can’t say the same for the Bruins. Belmont defeated Jacksonville St. twice in the regular season, once by 7 points and once by 4 points, and that’s when they were humming. The energy will be different today. This game is on my upset-alert-radar and should be on yours, too. Bet the Gamecocks.

Colorado State wins (-110), 1.5 units: This spot favors Nevada; they’re at home and desperate for a win after 2 straight losses at Utah State. I’m choosing to ignore that. The Rams have stepped up time and time again this year in tough spots. As of today, they are predicted by many as a participant in the NCAA Tournament. And now they have a real shot at competing for the Mountain West Conference title. The Rams play with pace, have 5 straight wins of momentum, and should be extremely motivated to win tonight. Give me Colorado State to take care of business, again.