For as long as January is, March feels all the more momentous and arduous. But here we are on the 31st day with the NCAA Tournament nearly over and the MLB season just 1 day away. The Northeast is warming up and after a 2-2 night, let’s hope these NBA picks do the same. I’ve always loved a hump day.

Blazers -6.5 (-110), 2 units: This is a lot of points to lay on the 4th straight road game for Portland but that’s not enough reason for me not to do it. This line is also growing by the second (I see it at -7.5 at some spots now). The Blazers have enjoyed their time away from home, winning 3 straight road games against Miami, Orlando, and Toronto. The final game before their triumphant return to Portland is against a lowly Detroit team who just eked out a rare win against the Raptors. Just another clumsy game for Toronto I suppose, but the Pistons bench really showed up in that game. They were responsible for 65 of their 118 points and the Pistons led all but a few seconds in the 1st quarter. Pretty impressive, but don’t expect it to repeat tonight. Detroit has back to back games starting Wednesday (Washington visits tomorrow), which means they’ll have two games trying to fend off offenses that like to boat-race their opponents. Portland scores the 8th most points per game and they boast a 6th best offensive efficiency rating on Hollinger’s team metrics. Detroit is in the bottom 5 in both those categories. Portland has had their struggles on defense but not against opponents as ineffective as Detroit. The Pistons won’t be able to keep up. I think Dame has a big game and this is a double-digit win.

Miami wins (-125), 1.25 units and Heat/Pacers under 218 (-110), 1 unit: I’m approaching this with caution but I’ll put a little more than 1 unit on this game for one simple reason: Miami really wants this. Nothing is more motivating than getting your ass kicked twice on your home floor and then you get a revenge-game shortly thereafter at your opponent’s backyard. That’s exactly what we’ll see Wednesday night between the Heat and Pacers. Just 10 days ago, the Pacers successfully knocked off the Heat twice in Miami– once by an overwhelming effort on offense and once in a grinding OT win with a little flex from Indiana’s defense. The Pacers, as we’ve said so many times here, are an extremely well-balanced team that can catch even the best teams if they’re asleep at the wheel. They play above-average offense and solid defense and don’t make many mistakes. Miami is built very similarly. The Heat just displayed one of their better games of the season against the Knicks two nights ago, holding New York to only 88 points. That’s a really amazing feat in today’s NBA. I don’t love that Miami has to turn around and face Golden State tomorrow, but they want this game more than Indiana. I expect an aggressive, gritty game from Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler tonight that will mean a below-average output from Indiana and a win for Miami. They’re too battle-tested to let Indiana win 3 times in a row.

Celtics win (-105), 1 unit *if Jaylen Brown plays: I get why people are afraid to bet Boston (I am, too). The Celtics continue to be an up and down program. But for all the talk about Dallas being on the rise, they’re pretty damn up and down, too. The Mavericks stutter often against great opponents and this isn’t an easy spot. Dallas is in the middle of a grueling road stretch while Boston is finally back at home and has a bunch of easy matchups ahead. Jaylen Brown and Romeo Langford have just been upgraded to questionable, which usually means they’ll play, but watch for updates until right before tip-off. Boston is just coming off a bad loss and if the Celtics are healthy and at home, they can easily snag a win here. They need one.

Knicks -4 (-105), 1 unit: The Knicks are a considerably better team than the Timberwolves, period. I like this more after the Knicks suffered a hard loss against the Heat just two nights ago, a game where Miami out-muscled and played better defense than one of the best in the association. No doubt– the Knicks didn’t like that. No one allows less points than New York and we’ve seen what they can do on offense when they go up against bad defenses like Minnesota. In recent history, NY dropped 131 on the Wizards, 119 on OKC, 140 on Sacramento and 123 on Atlanta. The Knicks should be motivated to get back to their winning ways and know they need to take advantage of easier games like this as they battle for a playoff berth in May. This line is sneaky at just 4 so I’m approaching with caution, but I don’t see the Knicks losing this game. At a line just barely over a one-possession lead, I have to take New York.

Kings/Spurs under 231 (-110), 2 units: I’ll be brief here. These two squads faced 2 nights ago and although San Antonio just lost LeMarcus Aldridge and they’re dealing with injuries, it isn’t like them to allow 132 points to any team. The Kings were on fire Monday night, shooting 56% from the field and a ridiculous 50% from beyond the arc. San Antonio also shot the ball really well at 50% from the field. Lightning rarely strikes twice in any sport and I trust Coach Popovich to formulate a better defensive game-plan in this one. The Spurs are 12th overall in defensive efficiency and 11th best in the NBA at points allowed per game. Expect some negative scoring regression and the under to hit.

Bucks -8.5 (-110), 2 units: This line keeps moving up and up and it’s obvious why. The Bucks hadn’t lost a game since the All-Star break and were looking scarier than ever. While Kyrie sat out multiple games and Durant still hasn’t returned and Philly lost Embiid, Milwaukee was humming as a unit and Giannis, while playing through some injuries, was dominant as a scorer and facilitator. The Bucks won 8 games in a row during that span and seemed unbeatable. Then in 3 of their most recent games they hit a lull, losing to Boston, New York, and to LAC in ugly fashion. If you’ve been a fan of my articles you know that I’m a little less surprised by that than most– I don’t love the Bucks– but some of those losses aren’t what they seem. Giannis wasn’t himself against Boston. The Clippers have been on a tear and hit 19 three-pointers against Milwaukee. And the Knicks, well, the Knicks catch a lot of teams by surprise. Regardless, this is a showcase game tonight against the 2020 NBA Champions and Milwaukee will be up for the task. It’s the 2nd leg of a long road trip for the Bucks but all of their key players are healthy. LAL hits the road after tonight to face far easier competition, so I could see them bow-down a little in this spot. The Bucks are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings against the Lakers and they need this game to get out of their rut. I lean the under in this game, too (the total is set at 222), but I can see the Bucks using their blitzing downcourt attack and trying to overwhelm LAL’s #1 rated defense. This is Milwaukee’s game to make a statement. Bet the Bucks.

Well it wasn’t the most sterling start to the week for yours truly last night (Pacers, really?) but we got a few good wins in there to make up for an overall losing night at 2-3. At 58% overall, we expect better things tonight. Let’s do it!

76ers +5 (-105), 1.5 units: As far as line movement goes, this is going against my best judgement. It started at Denver -4 and now it’s gone all the way up to Denver -5 with some extra juice. And I get why it’s moving. The 76ers are on a brutal 6-game road stretch right now that finally comes to an end on Thursday. And now they have to face the new-look Denver Nuggets with Aaron Gordon added to an already very talented roster. Gordon is a better role-player than a star and he should shine with his new squad. The Nuggets now have extremely talented players at every position of their starting lineup. With a roster that’s already deep, that’s a scary thought for their opponents and I think it makes them a real contender deep in the Western Conference playoffs. I actually liked them a lot before that trade so it’s even more true now. That being said, both the Nuggets and Sixers are on fire right now. The Nuggets have won 10/13 of their March games. The Sixers– 10/12. What’s most impressive about Philadelphia’s run is they’ve done it without their MVP-leading candidate Joel Embiid. Ben Simmons, Tobias Harris, Seth Curry and others have shown how deep Philly’s roster is and insured their team during Embiid’s absence. The 76ers still have the best record in the Eastern Conference because of it. I think this spot actually favors the Sixers more than the books want you to believe. For example, Philly has had 3 days to rest. This is also the last game the Sixers have to “get up for” on their road trip. Their final away game is against Cleveland on Thursday- yawn -and may serve as a let down spot or rest spot for Doc Rivers’ team. The Nuggets? They have to travel to LA on Thursday to face the Clippers, their Western Conference nemesis. The Clippers have looked sensational lately, winning their last 6 games and looking like the Lakers’ biggest competition come playoff time. The Nuggets could very well be looking ahead at that contest and underestimating what Philly can bring tonight. These are two well-balanced teams that play well on both sides of the court. Both have big, strong bodies and both front courts will battle at the rim. This has “close-game” written all over it so I can only go with the dog keeping it within 2 possessions. Bet the Sixers.

Suns -5.5 (-110), 1.5 units and Hawks/Suns under 220 (-105), 1 unit: This is a pretty perfect setup for Phoenix. The Hawks are in the middle of a long road stretch and they haven’t performed well, losing 3 of their last 5 games. The Suns, meanwhile, have won 5 of their last 6 games and although they have the Bulls tomorrow night, they’re on a 3-game home stand that concludes with the Thunder (not scary) and then they travel to Houston (really not scary). Not a bad week. This is also a great matchup for the Suns stylistically. Atlanta runs at a bottom-third NBA pace. Phoenix is one of the slowest at 28th overall. The Hawks are an up and down, inconsistent offense that’s mid-tier at best. The Suns have a top 10 offense and top 5 defense according to Hollinger’s adjusted efficiency stats and they only allow 107 ppg, which is 3rd best in the association. They’ve only allowed 100.6 ppg in their last 6 games (they may be getting better..), and one of those games went to overtime. To make matters even worse for Atlanta, the Suns are fully healthy coming into Tuesday and the Hawks are very injured. Bogdanovic, Dunn, Gallinari, and Reddish are all out for Atlanta, while Capela and Hunter are banged up. The line is coming down a little on this game and I say let it drop! I’m all over Phoenix.

Magic/Clippers under 215 (-115), 2 units: We have to lay some extra VIG here but I don’t care– this is a sure-under game if you ask me. The Clippers are getting better and better on defense, now ranking top 10 overall in adjusted efficiency and only allowing 101.8 ppg during their latest 6 game winning streak. After losing some key offensive contributors, the Magic are getting worse. Orlando has averaged only 101 ppg in their last 5 contests and they’re rated as one of the worst 4 offenses in the NBA. Their defense has held up okay, they’re mid-tier, but it makes sense that taking all this into consideration, only 45.6% of their games have gone over the total this season. The Clippers and Magic are in the bottom third of the NBA in tempo as well. We’re stacking up the data, folks! If some of the LAC stars sit in this game, I like it even more. Bet the under.

Well there’s a ton of games in the NBA today and for us, that means a ton of opportunity! I went 15-9 in NBA picks last week (63%) and I’m 107-77 (58%) overall in NBA picks since February 1. That’s a good sample size and I hope you’ve all benefited from it. Let’s tackle a big Monday in the association.

Pacers -5 (-105), 1 unit: The Pacers aren’t known for creating much margin between them and their opponents, even when winning, so I don’t love this number. Though I do feel like I have to take it because of the spot and situation-advantage for Indiana. Their clunker against Milwaukee aside, the Pacers have had some really good wins recently. They beat Detroit, punked Dallas, and beat up on the Heat twice at Miami. Because of that, they’re now grouped with the best teams in the NBA at #14 in point differential. They’re also among the best teams in the NBA in defensive efficiency, ranked just shy of the top 10 at #11. The Wizards, on the other hand, are not feeling the same good vibes. Washington most recently won against the lowly Pistons but it came at a price– Bradley Beal left the game early with a hip injury. His chances of playing don’t look great tonight. Overall, with or without Beal, the Wizards haven’t look good since the All-Star break. Now losers of 8 of their last 10 games, Washington will have to turn around and host Charlotte at home tomorrow night, too. The Pacers are balanced and good with or without the ball in their hands. Against a Washington team that’s limping into tonight, I like Indiana’s chances more than usual. I’ll take a small shot on the Pacers to cover.

Pelicans/Celtics over 229 (-110), 2 units and Lean, Pelican win (+120): One of the prevailing issues of the Boston Celtics is one of the most obvious– they’re small. Injuries to Tristan Thompson and Semi Ojeleye haven’t helped, but even when fully healthy the Celtics are never sharks at the rim. That’s an issue when you run into the New Orleans Pelicans. In case you’ve been under a rock, you’ve seen Zion Williamson’s talents on full display this season. The 2nd year star is quickly becoming one of the NBA’s premiere players to watch. Veteran Steven Adams and Zion are tough to stop when the opposition doesn’t have front court size or exceptional talent. Because of that, I think the Pelicans will be able to push the pace and assert themselves down low throughout his game. Increasing in tempo steadily since the beginning of the season, New Orleans is now right in the middle of the NBA in pace rating at 18th (Hollinger Stats, ESPN). Expect that level to keep climbing tonight. Lately Boston hasn’t matched well against any offenses, though. Their defensive efficiency rating has now dropped to 21st overall and they allow over 111 ppg. And look at their past 10 games. Teams not named the Nets are routinely dropping over 115 points on the Celtics. The Pelicans can certainly score 120+ and since Boston is the favorite this game should at least be close. I’ll hammer the over. I also lean a money-line win on New Orleans because of the big mismatch at the center and forward positions.

Timberwolves/Nets over 239.5 (-110), 1.5 units: Well, hopefully this wager is obvious. Only the Wizards and Kings are worse than the Timberwolves at points allowed per game. I mean, the Rockets dropped 129 points on Minnesota 2 days ago. That’s really bad. Brooklyn isn’t much better at #26 overall in points allowed. Kevin Durant isn’t ready just yet, but Kyrie and Harden and the other key offensive contributors are healthy and after 3 days of rest, Brooklyn gets to play at the Barclays center for their next 3 games. That’s a sure-fire-recipe for offensive success tonight and it’s hard to imagine this total staying below 240 points. Books are shy to post totals larger than 240 but it’s not that momentous in today’s NBA, especially not with the soft defenses and talented shooters that most teams are equipped with. I’ll take advantage.

Grizzlies -8 (-105), 2 units: Well I can’t help but pull the trigger on this one. The dark, abysmal, ice cold Rockets finally got a win 2 nights ago! Actually they get off the schneid recently against the Raptors but still, any win is a big win for Houston at this point. A nice game from Kevin Porter Jr. and 12 assists from John Wall were too much for Minnesota and their horrendous defense. Of course the Rockets also shot 54.3% from the field and a crazy 46.2% from beyond the arc. Needless to say, that won’t repeat Monday. The up and down Grizzlies don’t always live up to their potential but they’ll feel like a big difference in class tonight for Houston. Memphis quietly has one of the more stifling defenses in the NBA and despite a record that’s teetering on missing the playoffs, it’s the biggest reason why Memphis should be taken seriously. They’re mid-tier in points allowed the game but in Hollinger’s adjusted team ratings, they own the 7th overall defense. The Grizzlies dropped their last 2 games against Utah, which is pretty typical. Like the Knicks and Pacers and many mid-tier teams, Memphis can’t hang with the NBA’s elite but they can beat up on bad opponents. I’m sure Houston feels good about themselves heading into tonight but an angry Memphis team will out-perform the Rockets in every facet of the game. And they need to. In 2 nights they get another shot at the Jazz and they can’t afford to rack up too many losses at this point in the season. The Grizzlies are 57% ATS after a loss and 57% ATS on the road. Bet Memphis to cover.

Warriors +1 (-110) if Curry Plays, 1.5 units: Stephen Curry was just upgraded to questionable, which I’m hoping means he’ll play, but I wouldn’t bet this if he’s a late-scratch. Wait until you hear more absolute information about this game. If he does play, the Warriors are a better team than the Bulls, especially at home. I’ve been waiting for opportunities to pounce on this point, but Chicago is no better or has no potential more than any other mid-tier, young team that’s too reliant on one player. And unfortunately that player is Zach LaVine. I like LaVine; he seems like a good kid and he’s a great athlete. But I’m not sure how great of a leader he is and I know he’s not a pure shooter. He reminds me of Ben Simmons (though I think Simmons is a considerably more talented facilitator). He’s big, explosive, and he can really make an impact in a lot of different ways. As a rebounder, on defense, etc., he’s definitely a value-add. I just don’t think he’s built to lead a team into the playoffs. Do you know who is? Steph Curry. Curry adds an element of offensive talent that’s not limited to just his shooting. He’s a constant distraction for the opponent’s defense, a great leader on and off the court, and he’s a better passer than pundits give him credit for. The Warriors also boast a top 10 defensive efficiency rating on Hollinger’s metrics and I think they’re a horrible match-up for a rhythm dependent team like Chicago. Golden State has also lost 4 in a row and this is a prime-spot back at home, where they’re 13-9 straight up and 12-10 ATS. Fingers crossed for Curry!