Here’s the deal. Jacksonville state hung with this Belmont team losing by 7 at home and later only by 4 on the road. I am not saying that 3rd time is the charm or anything, I am just going by what I know about these teams. Jacksonville State has the better defensive adjusted effective FG% at 48.1% to 48.8%, and they shoot the 3 ball when needed just about as good as can be. Nick Muszynski for Belmont is just coming off of an injury and played a few minutes last game so I have to wonder if he might still be ailing a bit. In these team’s last game, Jacksonville State did a great job in slowing it down to 64 possessions. That is part of the formula for beating Belmont. Part of the reason that this line is so high is that the Gamecocks are coming off of an overtime win. I factor that in when it comes to regular season play but elimination games are different. These kids are young and they can hang for a few days in a row in these situations. Either way, Bart Torvik has this line at 5.4, Kenpom has it at 5 and I have it at 6.5. I think it is worth taking a shot here in such an important game with the disrespected barking dog.
Jacksonville State +7.5 – 1.5 star and sprinkle ML
We have an fantastic show for you today. Ross Benjamin @RossBenjamin1 from RBWins.com and Cub Fan Danny @CubFanDanny come on to break down a huge weekend of sports betting! First, Kiev talks about our free $500 giveaway NCAA tournament bracket challenge that we will put on for our listeners. Next, he gets into the value of money-line (mechanical) parlays compared to taking a future for these conference tournaments. Then, Kiev talks about some college basketball betting spots based on shooting percentage, opponent free throw percentage, opponent 3 point percentage, and teams that play good and bad away from home. Next, Ross Benjamin comes on to talk about how he benefits his customers at RBwins and the OSGA Youtube channel. Then, Ross and Kiev talk about some of the big games this weekend along with giving out some Free Plays for this weekend in college basketball! Then, Cub Fan Danny is back to break down a MASSIVE UFC 259 card with some plays and some leans. Should you need any games broken down for next week, please tweet us @TheOddsBreakers. Have a fantastic weekend!
NCAA: Indiana vs Purdue – Illinois vs Ohio State and more!
UFC 259: Israel Adesanya vs Jan Blachowicz – Amanda Nunez vs Megan Anderson and more!
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This line would have been bigger had Michigan beat Illinois. This is a rivalry game in Men’s basketball and I can only look to the desperate team here. Sparty has been very hot winning 4 of their last 5 games and now making a case to be a bubble team. The Wolverines are the best team in the Big 10 still in my mind and most likely a number 1 seed in the tournament. I can’t see them losing both of these games but I could see a desperate Michigan State team giving them fits. Sparty has been playing better down low having guys like Malik Hall and Marcus Bingham step up. When this team beat Illinois, they went big down low and laid the smack down on Cockburn. I can see them using a similar strategy on Hunter Dickenson and Austin Davis. If this line is 14 or better, I will probably be playing Michigan State here who is very desperate for a win and with Michigan on such short rest after the Illinois beat down. I can also take a look at the over because I think we might see a good amount of fouling this game. I have Michigan winning 78-65.
A solid 2-2 night last night, giving us a 9-3 overall record this week in NBA betting. I should have bet Philly on the full side last night, sigh. This is the last slate of games before a 6-day All-Star break. Let’s get to it!
Wizards +5.5 (-105), 1 unit: The Clippers throttled the Wiz-kids and won by 19 points in their last matchup, but this is a different Wizards team now. Embattled from their heartbreaking loss on Sunday to Boston and then getting squashed by Memphis, I like a little resurgence from Washington tonight. I like it even better since the Wizards are bringing a healthy lineup into DC, while LAC should be without Kawhi and Morris (both are doubtful). That should have a significant impact on the Clippers’ defense. I’m on the Wizards getting points and Beal to feast.
Parlay: Knicks win + game under 209 (1 unit to win 1.64 units): Trust me, last night’s offensive performance by the Pistons isn’t something you should get used to. The Raptors were beat up and in a bad spot and Detroit took full advantage. I mean they’re still a pro basketball club. Now Detroit is back on the bus and onto a tougher task tonight as they face a Knicks team that loves to play at home (58.8% ATS). New York’s defense is for real and Julius Randle’s dominance is even more for real. The aggressive, athletic center should have plenty of opportunities tonight against Detroit’s porous front court. Expect the Knicks to win and expect significant negative regression from the Piston defense.
Nuggets -5 (-105), 2 units: Good win for the Pacers last night, as we predicted, although they almost blew it at the end. Domantas Sabonis, who was questionable to play due to an ankle injury, ended up contributing the highest number of team minutes. Something tells me he’ll be a little less agile and able tonight. Regardless, the Pacers don’t have the offensive firepower to keep up with Denver right now. The Nuggets’ 4-game road trip wraps up tonight and they’ve enjoyed the time away, defeating OKC, Chicago, and Milwaukee by margin. Now after 2 days rest, Denver looks to earn a 4-0 road sweep against an Indiana team that’s 35.3% ATS at home. Boom. Bet Denver!
Lean- Bucks -6.5 (-115): There’s a reason Milwaukee is getting 6.5 with some extra juice. After that home debacle (which we correctly wagered on), Milwaukee heads to Memphis to wrap up the first half of their season. Memphis is a real up and down team who flexed a little 2 nights ago on the Wizards in a bad spot (another angle we correctly wagered on). Now they’re feeling themselves after winning 3 of their last 4 and a healthy and pissed off Milwaukee team awaits. The Bucks annoy me, but I lean their way.
Pelicans win first half (-125), 2.5 units: The up and down Pelicans proved once again that they’re among the most confusing teams in the NBA last night. They either look like an elite top 10 team or a total debacle. That usually means there’s a motivational or a coaching issue. Regardless, New Orleans should be able to muster some revenge-energy tonight after that disappointing loss to Chicago Wednesday. They almost came back but it was too little too late. Expect the Pelicans to start off hot tonight against a Heat team that could be without Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler (both are questionable). If they play, they’ll be limited. Miami is also very inconsistent on the road (8-9 ATS). Take New Orleans.
Suns -11.5 (-110), 1.5 units: This is a pretty straightforward handicap. Steph Curry and Draymond Green are out tonight and Kelly Oubre Jr. is questionable. The Suns are fully healthy and Devin Booker will look to assert himself after getting ejected against the Lakers. Golden State just suffered a heartbreaking blow last night. Phoenix is at home. Oh and the Suns are already the superior team… BLOWOUT city.
Well UCLA really lost steam in the final 5 minutes last night. I wasn’t surprised by how buttoned up Villanova looked but a bit taken aback by how lackluster Creighton played. Ah well! We’re 8-6 on the week in CBB and +4.37 units– let’s get MORE! Onto Thursday:
Duquesne +5 (-110), 1 unit: It’s the second round of the Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament and I’m here for it, especially when games start at 11:00am! The competitive spirit of the tournament is built into the line here and Richmond does have a considerably better offense than Duquesne. Still, the Spiders leave me with some concern. At the onset of this strange season, Richmond believed they were among the elite in the Atlantic 10 and a tournament bid was in their future. Fast forward to now and although talented, Richmond has blown many opportunities (especially against inferior opponents) to reach their potential. A tournament win could get them in the big dance but at a 9% chance according to Lineups.com, hope is fading. The Spiders finished their season on a 2 game losing streak, getting bested by Saint Louis and a streaking Saint Joseph’s, which tells me they’re lacking some real motivation. What’s more– 2 of their key players are banged up and questionable heading into this matchup. Duquesne has proven they can get up and play with the big boys and they only lost by 7 the last time they faced Richmond, who were in a much better spot. I like the Dukes to keep this close.
Saint Joseph’s +4 (-110), 1 unit: Another Atlantic 10 tournament game and another angle I love. Has anyone been paying attention to Saint Joseph’s? We bet on them the other day and scored a nice win. Saint Joseph’s is now on a 4-game winning streak and it hasn’t been against slouches either. Richmond, Dayton, twice against La Salle. I’m not going to overanalyze this– I’ll keep riding the Hawks until the wheels fall off. They’re enjoying this run and should give UMASS a run for their money today.
Dayton -3.5 (-115), 2 units: I love this setup for the Flyers. Rhode Island ended their season losing 6 of their last 7 games. Their only win in that stretch: a 2-OT-thriller victory against Dayton. Dayton has more experience and a more effective offense than the Rams. Rhode Island will also be without Jeremy Sheppard, one of their only two players who average double-digit ppg. The other, senior guard Fatts Russell, has been wildly inconsistent. That will mean that even more inexperienced players will have to step up for the Rams in a big spot here. I like Dayton in a sweet revenge spot. They’ve been here before.
Michigan State +12 (-110) and Oklahoma State +12 (-115), both for 2 units: I’m grouping this together because they’re in very similar situations. Both Michigan and Baylor are entering today’s games a bit cold. Although Baylor got a terrific win against West Virginia a few days ago, they haven’t looked like the same team since their COVID pause. They’re mistake-prone and a little undisciplined, at least compared to what we’re used to. Michigan was overwhelmed by Illinois last weekend and seemed to take their foot off the gas. Besides, what more do the Wolverines have to gain? They’re guaranteed a high seed in the NCAA Tournament and they’re the class of the Big 10, regardless of these final game narratives. Michigan State and Oklahoma State will be supremely motivated for today’s games. Sparty comes into this wanting to keep their tournament chances alive (56% chance according to Lineups.com) and Oklahoma State is riding a 5-game winning streak. Both are on the road but I don’t think that means much. These games are usually back-n-forth battles between conference titans and the line should be treated that way. Even if both Michigan and Baylor blow their foes out of the water, the number is too juicy not to take. Give me Sparty and the Cowboys to keep it close.
Utah State -16.5 (-110), 1.5 units: This is a pretty simple handicap for me. The Utah State Aggies are the significantly better team all around and need to keep their NCAA Tournament chances alive with impressive wins before the Mountain West tourney. And this is the perfect matchup to do it. While Wyoming enjoys beating up on weaker in-conference opponents with their fast tempo and effective 3-point shooting, they’re abysmal on defense. The Aggies are extremely effective at preventing high percentage shots and second chance opportunities and what’s more, they’re exceptional at preventing shots from beyond the arc. Wyoming lives off the 3-ball for its success. This is not a good situation or matchup for the Cowboys– take the Aggies to surge tonight.
What an amazing card for this Saturday’s UFC 259! You better believe it’ll be streaming it on my big-screen. Here are my best value bets for this momentous event:
Dominick Cruz (+105): “The Dominator” used to own the bantamweight division but after a long layoff and then a recent loss to Henry Cejudo, which is certainly nothing to be ashamed of, Cruz hasn’t won since 2016. Make no mistake about it, Cruz is poised to return to his old ways. He’s beaten legends of the octagon like Uriah Faber, TJ Dillashaw, and Demetrius “Mighty Mouse” Johnson. This line is begging you to take Kenny at a reduced underdog price for Cruz. It’s sneaky. Casey Kenny is a reputable fighter worthy of being a slight favorite Saturday night. He’s on a nice little 3 fight win streak, but his wins aren’t against any martial artists worth celebrating. Dominick Cruz has sensational lateral movement, elite timing, and moves at a pace that Kenny hasn’t seen before. This is a great price on a legendary fighter who still has the wind and moxie to win. Bet “The Dominator.”
Joseph Benavidez (+110): Benavidez was one of my favorite betting picks before his gruesome losses to Deiveson Figueiredo. Deemed by multiple announcers and fighters as one of the nicest guys in UFC, Benavidez has an unbelievable gas tank that’s been virtually unmatched until those two losses to the current flyweight champ. Askar Askarov is a gifted fighter with a great ground game, but I don’t think he’s as dominant as it seems. Benavidez has feasted on the Askarov archetype and I think it’s a great matchup for him to get back in the win column. Reluctant to start thinking about retirement, it’s obvious Benavidez still has the gusto to keep his future title chances alive. Bet on my boy Joseph.
Petr Yan (-120): I’m a big Petr Yan guy and I think this is a crazy low price for his first title defense. The Russian native has compiled a 7-0 record in the UFC and brings his 10-fight winning streak on the line when he defends his bantamweight title on Saturday. Aljamain Sterling is a great fighter and even better submission artist. He deserves this title fight after a long journey, but I can’t step in front of Yan here. Yan is a very complete fighter who overwhelms his opponents with pace. He has landed 284 more significant strikes than his foes through his 7 UFC fights, has a striking differential of +3.07, which is 1st among all bantamweights in UFC history, and also ranks 2nd in knockdown average. He hides his ability to submit and grapple but it’s there– he won by guillotine choke in his 3rd professional bout in 2015. He’ll be ready for Sterling. It may seem like I’m undermining and underestimating Sterling. I’m not, and he’s surely capable of dominating Yan on the ground. Petr Yan just gives us no reason to question him. He’s been an absolutely dominate fighter since arriving at the UFC and I don’t think Sterling is dynamic enough to stop him. Unless it’s against Henry Cejudo, I’m not sure if anyone can dethrone Yan for a long time. I think we’re looking at a true hall of famer in Yan and that’ll be on full display Saturday.
Megan Anderson (+650) and Anderson/Nunes over 1.5 rounds (-120): Is it likely that Megan Anderson will beat Amanda Nunes? Hell no. Assuming you know who Nunes is, who most experts call the greatest female UFC fighter of all time, that answer is always “no,” regardless of who her opponent is. But are there reasons to believe Anderson can pull it off? Yes. We won’t review Nunes in detail because we know about the “Lioness.” Megan Anderson is a complete fighter and she’ll have a true size advantage Saturday, one Nunes has never faced. She stands at 6 feet tall (Nunes is 5’8″) and she’ll own a 3.5 inch reach advantage. I also think she’s the hardest hitter Nunes has ever faced. With respect to Cris Cyborg, Anderson’s big frame and background in kickboxing/boxing bring a serious amount of striking skill to the octagon. There’s a ton of power coming behind those shots. Lastly and not to be overlooked– I really like how gritty Anderson is. She fights with fire and ferocity and I doubt she’ll be intimidated by Nunes. Her battle against Holly Holms 2 years ago was a good foreshadowing, as she very nearly beat the world-champion boxer and walked her down throughout the contest. Remember when Holly Holmes knocked out the untouchable Ronda Rousey? Holms approached that fight with the same calculated confidence and she was a similarly priced underdog (I think Holms was at +800). Everyone thought her winning was impossible, too. This line is just too juicy to not take a shot. Nunes is a lioness, not a goddess.
We’re taking the over 1.5 rounds because it’s a misnomer that Nunes ends most of her fights in TKO fashion. Sure, some of her most famous bouts have ended that way (her less than one minute TKO of Ronda Rousey sticks out), but Nunes’ fights routinely go beyond 2 rounds. In fact, her last two fights went the entire 5 rounds. Both fighters should approach each other cautiously out of respect for the other’s knockout capability. The over makes the most sense at a cheap price.
Jan Blachowicz wins (+190): This pick is all about pure polish power. Anyone who’s fought in any sort of boxing or MMA competition knows that Eastern Europeans just hit different (I have a ton of EE in my blood and I box, so yea maybe I’m a homer here). Jan Blachowicz is a great story. In 2017, after losing 4 of his first 6 UFC Fights, Jan turned his career around with steady improvements and won 8/9 of his next battles. That included 5 stoppages. Fast forward to his show-down with Dominick Reyes last year, where Jan crushed Reyes and ended the bout in a second round TKO, earning the title of light heavyweight champion and solidifying this huge showdown against Israel at UFC 259. Israel Adesanya is a mega star at this point, obliterating everyone in his path in the Middleweight Division. He’s bested names like Whittaker, Costa, Brunson, Romero, and the Anderson Silva. If he wins Saturday night, he would overtake Connor McGregor as the youngest champ-champ ever. It’s hard not to love Israel. He’s entertaining, well-spoken, and at times seems like a real-life untouchable ninja. He made Paulo Costa look silly in his last main event. So why do I like Jan? Blachowicz will weigh in at 205 but he’ll be much bigger than Israel when the first bell rings. And what people don’t know about the polish puncher is he’s also really skilled at takedowns and grappling. He has a ton of wins by submission and he’s a skilled take-down artist. The combination of his unique arsenal and assertive physical presence will, in my opinion, give him opportunities that Israel has never had to defend before. And as we all know, it only takes one good landing from the Polish powerhouse to get a knockout win. Israel is a world class martial artist but fighting in a different weight class is no joke. Connor learned the hard way the first time he switched and I think Adesanya does, too. I’ll take the dynamic, more imposing fighter for + money.
The Suns/Lakers game very nearly hit the under last night which would have made me a perfect 8-0 so far in March. I’ll take 7-1 and over 11 units any day, though. Let’s “march” on into our hump day NBA picks!
Pacers -5 (-110) *if Domantas Sabonis plays, 1.5 units: The Pacers were in a bad spot against the Knicks Saturday and Philadelphia Monday so we’re not very affected by those losses. Indiana cannot hold their own against the big boys of the East but they can, and usually do, conquer teams like the Cavaliers. The big question here is the health of All-Star center Domantas Sabonis. The big man is questionable Wednesday night and would leave a big hole in the front court if he can’t play. He’s worth a price adjustment but this line tells me that the books suspect he’ll give it a go tonight. The Cavs winning streak is hokey (2 wins against the horrid Rockets and a win against Atlanta before they fired their coach? Not impressed). Watch the injury report and take the Pacers with confidence if Sabonis is in.
76ers +2 (-115), 1.5 units: Are the Jazz falling back to earth? The hottest team in the NBA has now lost 2 of its last 3 games, falling once to an improving Heat team in Miami and then to the Pelicans in New Orleans. Their road stretch continues tonight before heading home to clobber the Rockets on Friday. As it stands, the 76ers won’t rule out Tobias Harris returning tonight to face Utah but if he does, that would mean a completely healthy roster for Philadelphia. Even without Tobias, the Sixers play great basketball at home. Because I fear a Jazz team that can turn around a game in a flash, I’m favoring the half-time line here (something I did yesterday on Memphis and won in the 1st quarter and 1st half). Philadelphia has tough road games following tonight at Chicago and Washington, but I think they come out motivated to beat a Jazz team that’s had everyone talking. Now more than ever, that fuels professional athletes. Bet on Philly to bring it in the first half.
Lean: Hawks -2.5 (-110): This is a lean because I’m not ready to bet on the Hawks just yet but they seem rejuvenated after firing Lloyd Pierce. Sometimes that’s the change a team needs. The Magic can’t win at home but they’ve faced some elite teams in Orlando lately like the Jazz and Nets. Once Atlanta gets some key players back (Reddish, Capella) and healthy, they could be a contender again. Orlando seems in disarray. If I had to bet this, I’m on the Hawks.
Bulls/Pelicans over 237 (-110), 1 unit: I’m only going 1 unit here because the Pelicans can be so up and down (remember when they scored 13 points in a quarter? I do), especially on the offensive end, but this game has the potential to go into the 250s on paper. Chicago’s front court is not impressive, so Zion should be able to impose his will for every minute he plays. Zach LaVine should score a ton against a Pelicans’ team that’s very shallow on defense, particularly at the guard position. Both teams play at a fast tempo (New Orleans’ stats are skewed because they started off the season playing much slower) and both teams struggle on defense. Give me an over where two stars should shine.
Hornets/Timberwolves over 233 (-110), 1.5 units: What makes the T-Wolves so bad? It’s hard to pinpoint just one thing. This is a good spot for them to squeak in a win, but I like the over tonight even better. Neither of these teams play good defense (Charlotte allows 113.5 ppg and Minnesota allows 116.5 ppg) and both rely on shooting and turnovers to stay in games. Not exactly a great recipe, thus the records indicate. I like this even more because the Hornets are on a brutal 6 game road stretch that ends tonight. They just played in Portland on Monday, the furthest city to travel to on the NBA map, and tomorrow they host the lowly Pistons. That makes it very likely that they’ll want to get in and out of Minnesota tonight, which usually amounts to a bad effort on defense. The Timberwolves have to travel to New Orleans tomorrow and may be looking ahead, too. Take the over, and if Cody Zeller sits tonight (he’s questionable at the moment), I would bet on Karl-Anthony Towns to go over 25.5 points (-116 at Bovada).
Another awesome day as I went 3-1 in CBB and 6-2 overall (NBA/CBB). That makes my record 13-4 so far in March (76%). This has been a hellacious week already and I intend on keeping it up. Let’s get over the hump with more picks:
Saint Joseph’s -2 (-110), 1 unit: Saint Joseph’s men’s basketball has won exactly 4 games this year. Between December and February 20th, they only won a single game. In these last 11 days, they’ve won 3 in a row. That’s pretty incredible. I don’t know if the Hawks are on a true run or if they’re just catching good teams by surprise or good teams in let-down spots, but they’re on a rare streak and I’m jumping on the train. It can’t be that hokey– wins against Dayton and Richmond are pretty darn impressive. La Salle and Saint Joe’s are two even matched bottom dwellers in the Atlantic 10 with not much to play for. I’ll play on the hotter team, who’s win against La Salle on February 20th was the start of their winning streak. Also it’s pretty cool it’s on at 11:00am– why not start hot? Let’s go!
UConn -1.5 (-110), 2 units: If you’re not Villanova, lately you’ve been owned by UConn if you play in the Big East Conference. Marquette, Georgetown, Providence, Xavier– all have fallen victim to the Huskies lately and James Bouknight is a big reason for that. Bouknight returned on February 16th against Providence and the Huskies have won 3 of their last 4 since then. The sophomore out of Brooklyn averages over 16 points and 8 rebounds per game and he shoots nearly 39% from beyond the arc. Most importantly, Bouknight is a great leader who plays hard and knows how to rally the troops. Enter Seton Hall. The Pirates are a solid basketball team but they’re not on UConn’s level, especially not with the way the Huskies have looked the past few weeks. UConn has been exceptional at crashing the offensive glass and creating scoring opportunities, something that should be a real issue all game for Seton Hall to manage. And what’s more– Seton Hall bested the Huskies in their first contest, at UConn. That was without Bouknight but still: insert maximum revenge angle. I expect a motivated UConn, who hasn’t officially made the tournament just yet, to take care of business today in Newark.
Belmont -20.5 (-110), 1.5 units: Evansville, Indiana may be in panic-mode as the Belmont Bruins, who were on an insane 21-game winning streak, have now lost 2 games in a row and are at risk to lose their bid in the NCAA Tournament. Lineups.com gives the Bruins a 49% chance to make it; of course recent losses to Morehead State and Eastern Kentucky haven’t helped. How can Belmont play with the big dogs if they’re losing games against lesser Ohio Valley teams? After a few days to think about their transgressions, the SIU Edwardsville Cougars come to Evansville and it’s go-time for the Bruins. SIUE recently got blown out by Murray State and Austin-Peay and they only seem to play well against the most abysmal Ohio Valley teams. A motivated Belmont team, who needs to win and win by impressive margin, should take care of business in a big way today.
Creighton +4.5 (-110), 1.5 units: This is too many points for the Bluejays. I love the way they looked against Villanova on February 13. Neither team made a ton of mistakes– Creighton was just able to move the ball around with pace and make high percentage shots for all 60 minutes. I realize that sets up for a huge revenge spot tonight, but it doesn’t matter to me. I don’t like what I’ve seen from Villanova lately. Even in wins, they don’t seem to have the same juice since that loss against Creighton. Maybe it was just a down day or a down month, or maybe Creighton figured out some of their weaknesses in ways other teams haven’t? I think it’s the latter, so I’ll take the points all day! Bet Creighton.
UCLA +4 (-110), 1 unit: This show-down has been postponed 3 different times but now we finally get to see it happen. I think this game will look a lot like Baylor and West Virginia last night (what an incredible watch). UCLA has USC on deck, but this game matters most for positioning to win the Pac-12 title. The Bruins are entering Wednesday night off a disappointing loss to Colorado on the road 5 days ago. Oregon has looked really impressive lately, knocking off 3 straight Pac-12 opponents and playing especially incredible at home. Oregon has the advantage down low, but UCLA has the better guards. As long as the Bruins can get open and hit shots, and I think they can, this game should remain close. Both teams play with a slow, methodical tempo, which I think lessens the chances that either team gains any real margin. This will be a back and forth battle between two teams that hate each other and because of that, I gotta take the points with UCLA.
How do you start March with a bang? How about a 4-0 night?! There are few feelings better than hitting on every one of your predictions and watching it unfold. Monday night was solid. Here’s to hoping I made your wallets fatter and to more wins, cheers!
Grizzlies 1st QTR -0.5 (-105) for 1.5 units and Grizzlies 1st HALF -0.5 (105) for 1.5 units: What a deflating loss for the Wizards on Sunday. I watched while playing scrabble with my fiancé and 15 year year old son and couldn’t believe how well Bradley Beal was playing. The guy couldn’t miss. Beal is playing some of the best offensive basketball I’ve seen in a long time. He’s a Kobe-like performer when he’s on fire and his talent can no longer be denied or overshadowed by another teammate. Unfortunately for Beal and the Wizards, they lost in the final seconds. A heroic performance like the one Beal gave Sunday night can be breathtaking for a team in good ways and bad. If they won, I probably wouldn’t be writing this angle, but they didn’t. The Grizzlies just pummeled the Rockets 2 days ago by 49 points. 4…9… POINTS. The Rockets are in complete disarray so I’m not surprised they lost, but that’s a beat-down of epic proportions. Some teams can’t even score 49 points in a half let alone win by that margin. Dominating victories like that create new-found confidence and momentum, and that’s the kind of angle I like to bet on. Memphis will come into Tuesday still riding high from that win. The Wizards were on a hellacious run before that heartbreaking loss and I think it affects them in DC tonight. For the full game, Beal and Westbrook could turn it up and give Washington a win. For the first half, I’ll be on Memphis.
Nuggets +7 (-110), 1.5 units: This is too many points for the Bucks. Now mind you, I’m not a big fan of Milwaukee so is there a chance I have some inherent bias here? Yes, there’s a chance. I don’t love the way they rely on an unreliable Giannis Antetokounmpo and I don’t think Giannis’ supporting cast is that impressive. It’s why they falter every year in the playoffs. That being said, Milwaukee played great at the end of their game against the Clippers on Sunday. While Paul George was missing shots and Kawhi was trying to hold LAC squarely on his shoulders, Giannis dominated. He even made his free throws (slow clap). How impressive for a player signed to a $225 million+ dollar contract. Anyway, the Bucks are undoubtedly feeling fat and sassy heading into Tuesday. They’ve been on a long homestand, where they love to play, and besting the Clippers had to be a high. The Denver Nuggets are an up and down team but lately, they’ve been up. Besides a late-game loss to the Wizards, who have been on quite the tear, the Nuggets beat Portland, trounced OKC at Oklahoma City, and defeated a feisty Bulls team in Chicago last night. Their injuries still alert me on defense as they continue to miss the toughness of Paul Millsap and Gary Harris, but their output on the offensive end hasn’t suffered much. If either Jokic or Jamal Murray have a dominant performance Tuesday, and I don’t think Milwaukee has the moxie to prevent at least one of the Nuggets’ stars from doing so, Denver will present problems. Take the Nuggets getting points.
Suns/Lakers under 213.5 (-110), 1 unit: It’s hard to ever bet an under in an NBA but this number is unusually low for a reason. The Lakers enter Tuesday night leading the association in defensive efficiency and holding teams to 105.6 ppg. The Suns aren’t far behind. Phoenix holds teams to 107.5 ppg and is rated #6 in adjusted defensive efficiency. One stat I like even more: both teams are in the lower half of the NBA in tempo, with Phoenix actually being the slowest team in the NBA next to the Knicks. Even if you threw away all of these suggestive statistics, I like the under most because this game should have a playoff feel. Dennis Schroder and Chris Paul with battle. Lebron and Devin Booker will scrap. Both teams have tough front court players like Montrezl Harrell and Deandre Ayton, and both teams take a lot of pride in how they play defense. I could easily see the first quarter ending around 50 points and the first half flying well below 100. That would position us well. If either team starts hot from the field, I like a live over even more. Only 1 unit out of humility, but all the support is there for an under play.
What a nice start to March last night as I went 3-2 overall in CBB for a slight uptick in units (+.88). I went 4-0 in the NBA, which has definitely been my cash cow (check out my Daily NBA Free Picks if you don’t already); let’s catch up! Onto my Tuesday picks:
Baylor -4 (-110), 2 units: Yea I can’t pass on this game. If somehow this loses so be it, but this is another number play on the Bears after a very disappointing loss against Kansas last weekend. Baylor was in the conversation as one of the best regular season college basketball teams anyone had seen in quite some time. Elite on offense and defense, they looked like the same dominant squad every single time you watched them. They also had no problem covering most of their spreads (68.4% ATS on the year), even after they were getting inflated. Baylor heads into tonight to face a very tough West Virginia team at their home court. It’s not an ideal spot since it’s their second straight tough road game and they have two more big games on deck against Oklahoma State and Texas Tech. But the good news is the Bears have, obviously, already made the tournament (and so has West Virginia). These games are more for pride and momentum. Last time out against Kansas, Baylor got out-rebounded 48-28. They also shot a poor 35% from the field and an even poorer 23% from beyond the arc. Do you think that’ll continue? I don’t. Eventually, and I think it’s tonight, the Bears will obliterate someone. The Mountaineers are a really good ball club and their big man Derek Culver is dominant. They’ll be motivated, too. I just think this means more to Baylor and West Virginia is the unfortunate victim. The Bears need to get right. Baylor win by 10.
Illinois +8 (-110), 1.5 units: I’m not saying I think the Illini will win this game, but Michigan has been about as consistent and dominant as any team in the nation, so eventually you’d think they could have at least a slight let-down game or let their guard down a tad. Illinois is not a team you want to do that against– just ask Wisconsin. Big man Kofi Cockburn is capable of dominating a game on both ends of the floor and he won’t be an easy matchup for Michigan’s young star Hunter Dickinson. Their guards, who were responsible for most of the scoring Saturday, proved they could hold up their team, too. Besides a little blip on the radar where Illinois lost to Michigan State, the Illini have won 8 of their last 9 contests and should not be taken lightly. Both teams are locks for the postseason but neither wants to lose momentum. The Wolverines are fantastic on defense but I don’t think they’ll be able to completely stifle the Illini– their offense is too good and too consistent. Take Illinois with the points.
Xavier -2.5 (-110), 1 unit: Georgetown plays better at home but that stat is a bit overstated. The Hoyas are about as good on the road (57%) as they are at home (58%) against the spread. Tonight, covering the spread may prove very difficult. The Xavier Musketeers come into Tuesday night after a great win over Creighton that may have been the boost they needed to keep their tournament hopes alive. They need to keep winning, though, and tonight’s game and Thursday’s game against Marquette (also on the road) stand in the way. I’m sure Georgetown would love to play spoiler. Xavier is a much better shooting team overall than the Hoyas. The only issue is Xavier likes to take high percentage shots; an area where Georgetown is particularly skilled on defense. The Hoyas are also great rebounders. This won’t be an easy win. I’m an edge/angle bettor more than a stats bettor though and it’s served me well. Xavier is still the more skilled and more prolific scoring team and they NEED this game. Give me the Musketeers at a reduced line.
Ole Miss -2.5 (-110), 1.5 units: Ole Miss and Kentucky are two evenly matched teams with very slim chances to make the tournament, but this is more about line movement cues. Kentucky has been very up and down lately, particularly on the offensive side of the court. This isn’t a good look going up against an Ole Miss team that’s only allowing 64.7 ppg in their last three contests. Kentucky is also pretty horrible against the spread (ATS). The Wildcats are 3-5-2 (37%) ATS on the road and 6-14-2 (30%) ATS overall. That’s abysmal. They also turn the ball over on the road, averaging 15.9 turnovers per away game. What we’re seeing in this line today is a great microcosm of how the season has gone for these two teams. Kentucky just hasn’t maxed out their potential, while Ole Miss has played better than expected. The Rebels are at home and their solid defense should give Kentucky issues. This is a better spot for Ole Miss and the sharps agree– this line keeps moving up. Bet on the Rebels to cover the number.
