ATLANTA, GA NOVEMBER 25: Georgia Tech head coach Josh Pastner talks to his players in the huddle while wearing a face shield during the NCAA basketball game between the Georgia State Panthers and the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets on November 25th, 2020 at Hank McCamish Pavilion in Atlanta, GA. (Photo by Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Duke vs Georgia Tech -1.5 O/U 146
Everyone is talking like Duke is now on their way to the NCAA tournament and is a much improved team but I am going to pump the breaks a little on that narrative.
The big question is if Duke is a good team or were they just a hot team? I think they were hot.
Georgia tech is a team that we made some money on this year and they are well on their way to tournament birth.
Both of these teams stat-wise are pretty equal. Both shoot the pretty well at 35.7% but both teams have issues defending it allowing about 37% to go in.
Duke is the better rebounding team at 35 to 31 but Georgia Tech has the better assist to turnover ratio at 1.5 to 1.3.
I like that this is a small revenge spot for the Yellow Jackets at home and I think that they make this a statement game with the better D.
Georgia Tech -1.5 – 2 stars
Wisconsin vs Purdue -1.5 O/U 129.5
I am a huge Badger Alumni and fan but Wisconsin has been overrated all year long on Kenpom.
Wisconsin has gotten by playing good defense as usual but they haven’t figured out how to rebound and run good plays.
Wisconsin’s shooting percentage is a pathetic 42% and the fact that they don’t rebound well on the offensive side of the ball ranking 277th in the league in offensive rebounds really can spell disaster for this team.
Wisconsin is soft down low and when they face good bigs they get smoked.
Purdue on the other hand is a team that keeps improving. They are huge down low with 6’10 Travion Williams and 7’4 Zach Edey cleaning up boards while future freshman stars like Jaden Ivey is driving to the hole while Sasha Stefanovic is shooting 3s. Purdue has the greatest upside out of any team out there.
Wisconsin is an even worse road shooting team at 39% shooting and 29.9% from 3 point land.
If Purdue wins this game, they clinch the double bye in the big 10 tournament. I like Purdue to win by 3.
Purdue -1.5 – 1.5 stars
Bonus: HORIZON LEAGUE: Money Line Rollover on Detroit starting with 1U. I think this team has the most upside to win their tournament bracket.
The month of February gave us a great deal of variance in the world of college hoops. At this time of year, the really solid coaches and teams tend to separate from the weaker ones, just as cream in coffee always rises to the top. I hope to take advantage of that as the tournament bubble approaches. If you don’t count the two flyer-bets we had for plus money, we were a nice 3-1 yesterday. Onto Monday’s free picks:
Stephen F. Austin -11.5 (-110), 1.5 units: The Lumberjacks blew out Central Arkansas by 26 points in their first contest. Stephen F. Austin routinely wins by great margin against weaker Southland Conference teams and Monday should be no exception– the Bears have lost their last five games by an average of nearly 17 points. This is a big mismatch, both on paper and in reality, and the Lumberjacks need a win to keep their slim chances (23% according to Lineups.com) of making the tournament alive. Bet on SF Austin!
Richmond -14.5 (-110), 1.5 units: Richmond beat Saint Joseph’s easily in their first matchup by 23 points and, just like my analysis in the game above, Richmond needs to keep winning to sustain their hopes of tournament play (29%). The Hawks had no answer for the Spiders’ offense back in January and that won’t flip today. Richmond boasts a top 25 adjusted offense according to KenPom and averages over 83 ppg. And trust me, most of that output was against defenses that are way more effective than Saint Joseph’s. Bet on Richmond and don’t look back.
Miami/Virginia under 123 (-110), 1 unit: Miami has just looked horrible lately and the Cavaliers really need a win– which usually means they flex and show out more on defense than offense. A recently very ineffective offense against an angry Virginia defense? I won’t overthink this. Give me the under.
Oklahoma -1.5 (-115), 1.5 units: Oklahoma was well ahead 2 days ago against Oklahoma State before the Cowboys turned up the pace and scoring. One stat that pops out from Saturday’s game is the disparity in rebounds. The Sooners got throttled on the boards, losing the battle 45-28 to the Cowboys. Oklahoma is a much better rebounding team and they’re much better defensively than what they showed. I expect a lower-scoring affair with a tempo more controlled by Oklahoma tonight. If they allow the pace to speed up like they did Saturday, OK State could pull away. Oklahoma has the revenge angle and can modify their approach to overcome the Cowboys. Bet Boomer-Sooner!
Colorado State -18 (-105), 1.5 units: We’ve seen this story before (actually we saw it 2 days ago). Air Force is really bad. I won’t break it down and waste your time, but the Falcons are in the bottom third of the nation in virtually every category (except luck, not shockingly). Colorado State is officially the final team that would make the NCAA Tournament if it started today, leaving their current chances of getting a bid at 22%. They need to win this game and they shellacked Air Force 72-49 on Saturday. The Rams play fast, run an effective offense and have a top 50 defense, too. I don’t see how Air Force keeps this close. The Rams win by 20+ again.
Well February was a good month. My NBA Picks went 58-42 overall, which is a 58% win clip. I want over 60%– Who’s ready for March?! Let’s start hot with today’s picks:
76ers -4.5 (-110), 2 units with Embiid, 1 unit without: This bet isn’t about the Pacers, who are a solid mid-tier team, it’s about the Sixers. I handicapped this line at around 8 or 9 with Embiid playing, so I love the value we’re getting here. Even if Embiid sits out, Ben Simmons is having an incredible season and the Sixers have enough firepower to cover this line. Doc Rivers ripped into his team about their lack of effort Saturday night, blowing a game late to a Cavs team that seemed hungrier to win. If Philadelphia shows up groggy again, Indiana is more than capable of handedly beating them. Now losers of 3 in a row, the Pacers are hungry for a win, too. Last time out, the Sixers beat the Pacers 119-110 in Indianapolis. Joel Embiid didn’t play in that game either and usually Philly struggles on the road, so that’s a good sign for tonight. I think the Sixers supporting cast rises to the occasion Monday in primetime and overwhelms a Pacers team that’s not nearly as talented and still without some key players. Bet Philly.
Nuggets/Bulls over 228 (-110), 2 units: I set this total around 235 and I still leaned over. I really like this total to go over for a few reasons. Firstly, we have two young superstars in Jamal Murray and Zach LaVine, which should make for a good back and forth scoring show. Secondly, I love the way Denver matches up against the Bulls. The Nuggets are 10th in the NBA in forcing turnovers, while Chicago is 28th in the NBA in turnover percentage, coughing it up at a rate of 15.9% per possession. That should generate a ton of easy points for the Nuggets. Thirdly, I also like the Bulls matchup on offense. The Bulls play with the 6th quickest pace in the NBA. Denver, meanwhile, is still suffering from key injuries that weaken their defense (Paul Millsap and Gary Harris, specifically). It’s tough to find a Nuggets game that’s gone under 220 points lately because it rarely happens. The Bulls will enjoy some positive regression scoring tonight after being humbled by Phoenix two nights ago, too. Over, over, OVER.
Cavs +4 (-110), 1.5 units: How can I not bet against this Rockets team as a favorite? This line is dropping so bet the Cavs while you can. The ordeal with Victor Oladipo is getting worse– he didn’t play Sunday and he didn’t accept Houston’s contract extension offer, which means he could be a prime trade candidate moving forward. Houston, at home, got absolutely blown out by a mid-tier Grizzlies team Sunday night. Now the Cavs come to town riding a nice little 3 game winning streak, including an OT win at Philadelphia. Kevin Love won’t be back until post-All Star break but that’s cool with us; Cleveland is used to it. Other Cavs players like Dean Wade, Darius Garland and Collin Sexton have stepped up in big ways. Once a team I really thought could be a contender this year and fun to watch without Harden, the Rockets are in disarray right now and I have to bet against them. Give me the more energized dog.
Blazers -6 (-110), 2 units: Anticipating that the Hornets could pull off a win last night, which they did, I got this line at -6. Right now I’m seeing it at -7 or -6.5 at most books, which is a line I still like. This is a horrid spot for the Hornets. Charlotte won last night off a huge performance from PJ Washington, some late-game heroics, and some late-game flubs by the Kings. Now the Hornets have to travel from Sacramento to Portland (not as short a trip as you might think) one night later and take on a Blazers team who’s hungry for a win and at the genesis of a 4-game home stand. I’m not sure if Cody Zeller or Gordon Hayward play tonight for the Hornets. We saw the toll that took on the team last night. Every team not named the Pistons or Rockets should easily beat the Kings right now. Last time out, Portland was stifled by an aggressive Lakers defense, a game where superstar Damian Lillard received little offensive support. I expect significant improvement from the Portland offense tonight, especially against a much weaker and tired defense. Bet on the Blazers with confidence and add them as a parlay leg, too.
A good overall week above .500 and we’re 56-40 overall on NBA bets in February. I want my record officially over 60% to end this month strong, so let’s attack these picks with ferocity today and get, that, MONEY!
Clippers win (-110), 1.5 units: I love betting against Milwaukee in spots like this. The Bucks are, once again, starting to feel fat and sassy as they’ve been dominating weaker opponents at home. That’s what the Bucks do and it really doesn’t impress me. The Clippers have quietly won 7 of their last 10 games and Paul George should officially be less limited today and at full strength. Jrue Holiday returns for Milwaukee, which could be a good thing, or it may throw off the flow of their offense since he’s been out for so long. Like I’ve said many times before, Milwaukee struggles in games against well-balanced, elite teams like LAC, LAL, Toronto, and Philadelphia. The Clippers are good on both ends of the court. The Bucks need to overwhelm LAC with a fast tempo and high percentage shots from Giannis. I don’t see it. A buttoned up, strengthening Clippers team gets the win Sunday.
Wizards +6.5 (-110), 1.5 units: Boston is off the schneid and now, rut row, they turn around and see a buzzing Washington team heading their way. Getting 6.5 points with the surging Wizards against an up and down Celtics team is what I love to see and take advantage of. Boston comes off a win against Indiana 2 nights ago and while I slow clap and applaud their efforts, the Pacers are a team they should beat. It’s nothing to exalt. The Celtics have tough games around the corner this week: LAC, Toronto, and Brooklyn. They could definitely be looking ahead on Sunday. Washington is playing some inspired basketball right now. Winners of 7 of their last 8, and against quite a few top 10 teams, the Wizards are playing great team ball and facilitating their star Bradley Beal, who continues to lead the NBA in scoring by nearly 3 points (which is a ridiculous margin, by the way). I’m all over the Wiz-kids again.
Warriors/Lakers over 221 (-105), 1.5 units: The Warriors play at the 2nd fastest pace and score the 8th most in the NBA at 114.7 ppg. The Lakers, still without Anthony Davis, got back the little beast that is Dennis Schroder on Friday night and we saw the difference he can make. Schroder is unafraid to drive to the basket or take on the most elite scorer. He’s a pest in every way. Now he’ll go up against Steph Curry, arguably the most elite perimeter scorer in NBA history. I think Schroder will bother Curry but he’ll lose more often that he wins. What Portland didn’t have 2 nights ago was a ton of offensive support outside of Damian Lillard. The Warriors are seeing game-by-game improvements from Looney, Wiseman, Wiggins, and especially from Kelly Oubre Jr. Draymond Green has served as one hell of a facilitator as well. I think Golden State can make LAL uncomfortable often enough to drive this total over. This feels more like a 119-115 type of game.
Knicks -1 (-105), 2 units: Derrick Rose in a comeback game against his former team? Julius Randle against a shallow Detroit front court? The Knicks– who play stifling defense– against an offense that can’t score against inferior defenses? I won’t over-analyze this game. I love the Knicks in this spot and would be shocked if they lost. If they do, it’s because someone gets hurt, a key NY player is on “rest,” or the Pistons have the game of their life. The Knicks should win this easily.
What a nice ass-kicking that was yesterday. Only one of my official plays hit, my two leans actually won, and Baylor and Duke swiftly blew their spots. Maybe at this point it doesn’t mean much when I say it, but I feel good about today’s angles. Cringing and awaiting the jinx, here are my free picks for Sunday’s college hoops:
Villanova -11 (-115), 1 unit: As the NCAA Tournament draws near, we’re starting to see elite teams lay wood on weaker opponents in an effort to gain momentum before the madness. Jay Wright is one of the more buttoned up coaches in the country. I actually really like Villanova (+1600) as a potential tournament winner for that reason. He’ll have the Wildcats ready for this one, so the “revenge spot” angle or “let-down” angle doesn’t scare me here today. The Wildcats beat Butler handedly in their first matchup by 19 points. The Bulldogs got a nice win against Seton Hall recently; nice. But they’ll be humbled today. Just one unit, but a trust the significantly better team to show it today.
Memphis -3.5 (-115), 1 unit: I don’t love betting on an away favorite, but Cincinnati lost a key member of their offense when guard David DeJulius announced he was opting out earlier this week. Memphis boasts the #2 ranked adjusted defense in the country, which will be present a significant challenge for a home dog who struggles to score. Cincinnati has a slim chance to make the tournament; Memphis is in a much better position to get there. I wish this line was at 2.5 or 3, but I’ll put one unit on the Tigers winning by 2 possessions. They’re the more complete, better positioned team here.
Maryland -2 (-110), 2 units: This line probably should be higher but Michigan State has a popular brand in the world of college hoops, so all we need is the Terps to close it out with a one-possession lead at home Sunday. Winners of now 4 in a row, Maryland has eked their way into the tournament with effective offense and stout defense in the month of February, besting a range of tough Big 10 opponents. Their bid still isn’t guaranteed, however, so the Terps need this game as much as Sparty. Michigan State has showed some real gumption recently and I still love me some Tom Izzo, but this feels like a spot where Sparty gets humbled once again in an effort to recreate magic. The Terps are a more balanced, better unit. Bet Maryland.
UTEP -6.5 (-110), 1.5 units: UTEP waxed the 49ers yesterday and I see no reason why this game looks any different. Charlotte needs turnovers to have a chance against good offenses, something they failed to do Saturday and it’s unlikely they’ll succeed today. The Miners are at home for the second straight game and they know how to beat the 49ers. Expect them to execute again on the Sabbath. A line at -6.5 feels way too low.
Loyola (MD) wins (+155), 1 unit and
Lehigh wins (+145), 1 unit: I’ll take a shot on one of these two teams to win today. I like Lehigh a little more at home, but the disparity between Lafayette/Lehigh and Loyola /Navy isn’t that tremendous. Loyola and Lehigh both play at a significantly quicker tempo than their foes. Plus, neither of the favorites have a great shot at making the tournament (Navy: 19%, Lafayette: 3%). This is a double-header in both games where both of the favorites got a win in the first contest– something tells me at least one of these dogs will hit today. I’ll spread one unit on each and say a prayer.
Utah with the surprise loss last night was a hit, but we carry on with a lot of solid opportunity Saturday in the association. Check out my appearance on episode 75 of the “Game On!” podcast, available everywhere you find podcasts, where I break down a game today and for Sunday. Look for me to participate more on that pod, too. Onto the picks!
Wizards -4 (-110), 1.5 units: Wait a second, the Wizards are the favorite? Alright I mean, it is the Timberwolves, but I think they could be favored by even more. You have to love the way Washington has resurged lately. Winners of 6 of their last 7, and showing the ability to flex and assert themselves at the end of a game 2 nights ago against Denver (at Denver, even more impressive), the Wizards seem to be finding their identity lately. I don’t see Westbrook as a real leader or exceptional scorer, but he sure is an energy boost. And he’s aware that Beal is their true superstar. Less egos = more wins. Minnesota can’t catch a break– this is their 4th straight road game and they’re not playing much defense. All the momentum and firepower is behind the Wizards– take them to keep it going.
Jazz -10.5 (110), 1.5 units: I wanted to take the Magic tonight in a let-down spot for Utah but last night’s Jazz game against Miami was the one to grab. Like any elite team, the Jazz have moments of ineffectiveness and yesterday was a tough spot against a tougher opponent in Miami. The Jazz are in the middle of a 4 game road stretch, with two big games against New Orleans and Philadelphia to follow, but great teams tend to come together and rediscover their chemistry away from home. That’s especially true against inferior opponents. The Magic can play a little defense when they want to but this isn’t the spot. I think Utah wins by 20+ tonight. They’ve shown the ability to bounce back and their regression doesn’t last. Bet the Jazz with confidence.
Thunder +7, (-110), 1 unit: These are two tough teams to handicap. If Jamal Murray decides to have a 50+ point game, it’s night night for OKC. If Jokic is there putting up 25-30 points alongside a big Murray performance, it’ll be a 20+ point win for Denver. That being said, the Nuggets are still suffering from a host of injuries that really affects their defense. PJ Dozier has been upgraded to questionable and that could make a big difference in tonight’s game– Denver’s guards haven’t exactly stellar in his absence. The Thunder are getting Al Horford back after he missed Friday’s game and they played the Nuggets closely in their last matchup on Feb 12, only losing by a bucket. OKC is also on a nice little run right now, defeating San Antonio and Atlanta in their last 2 games. They’re at home tonight and about to get 4 days of rest to follow. Denver lost a heart-breaker to Washington last time out but I still think this game sets up better for the Thunder. I’ll take OKC for a light, humble, conservative (I think that’s enough adjectives) 1 unit.
No takes on the high noon games but there’s a ton of opportunity in the world of college hoops today! Let’s tackle some of those NCAAM Picks!
Wisconsin -4.5 (-115), 1.5 units: This is a great spot for the Badgers and I love it even more after Michigan State exposed Illinois earlier this week. The recipe seems to be pretty simple– overwhelm the big man (Cockburn) and force an inefficient Illini perimeter team to beat you. Wisconsin plays arguably the best defense in the Big 10 and I don’t see them having an issue here today at home. This is also the 3rd game this week for Illinois, while the Badgers have a had a week to rest. Expect a Badgers win by a few possessions here.
Weber State -6.5 (-110), 1 unit: This could be a let-down spot for Weber State– they shot nearly 60% from the field against Sacramento State Thursday so I don’t know if that can happen again, plus they’re playing at Sacramento for a 2nd straight night– but the Wildcats really need this game to stay in contention. They won by 9 on Thursday night so the margin for error is slim, but I think they’re desperate enough to cover this number. A 6.5 point line means more than 2 possessions and they’ll be the more motivated team.
Lean UConn -6.5 (-110): I can’t bet this game because Marquette is a very solid squad and UConn can be so up and down, but the Huskies need this game more than the Golden Eagles. UConn is right there on the bubble, the last 4 that would make the tournament, while Marquette’s chances are only 3% according to lineups.com. This game should be close but the Huskies will likely pull away. They’re even tougher at home, covering at 62.5% of the time. Expect Bouknight to step up in a big way in the 2nd half.
Lean Florida State -1.5 (-110): I want to take a shot on the Seminoles but there is a true difference between how they play at home and on the road. The Tar Heels are a different team since that win at Duke so I can’t say it excites me to step in front of them. The Seminoles are absolutely the better overall team and, in my opinion, would clobber North Carolina on a neutral court. I just think the Tar Heels may need the momentum more entering the tournament, so this is just a lean for me.
Colorado State -17.5 (-110), 1.5 units: This is a big-time talent disparity and there’s a chance the Falcons are a little fat and sassy after a nice win against New Mexico the other night. How Air Force will score or keep up with Colorado State, I don’t know. I don’t think they will. This number is too light.
Duke -5 (-110), 2 units: Duke is right on the edge of the NCAA Tournament and they’re starting to surge — shocker. They come into Saturday evening winners of 4 straight and with a lot to lose if they blow tonight’s game. Louisville is a solid team capable of playing really effective defense, see their game against Notre Dame in the second half last weekend, but I think that was more about the Irish losing their luster than the Cardinals flexing. This is an ideal spot for the Blue Devils to boost their chances and they only have to win by 2ish possessions. Take Duke.
Baylor -3.5 (-110), 2 units: Maybe this is me being square but I have to take Baylor at this number. The Bears looked human 4 days ago against Iowa State, losing for 75% of that contest. The Cyclones aren’t even a top 150 team this year so that’s not something to be proud of, but a long COVID layoff can humble a team. I respect the hell out of Kansas and think they could make waves in the tournament. They’re also in the better spot after a recent loss and now returning home. At a number this low I have to play on Baylor, though. The Bears will look at Tuesday’s win as a near loss and let-down and I expect them to flex a little tonight. One game and many practices can cure ineffective team efforts and I don’t have to tell you, Baylor has been one of the most effective teams in the nation this year, on both sides of the court. Take the Bears and don’t sweat it one bit.
This should be a very competitive fight leading into the main event. More competitive than the line tells you anyways. Magomed is probably priced a little to high this fight and I think that it is a tricky one. He probably still wins but not sure if it will be inside the distance. Nikita is a very accomplished fighter. Has he had some losses? Yes, but mainly by submission. He has only been knocked out once in his whole career. Stat-wise, Nikita is the better technical fighter but I have seen Magomed and he looks good. He has 4.5 significant strikes to 3.5 for Magomed, he has 15 wins by submission to Magomed’s 0. Nikita is going to put up a fight and try to get Magomed to the ground. I think that the best play in this fight is that it goes to decision at +160.
Goes to decision +160 – 2 stars
Cyril Gane vs Jairzinho Rosenstruik +225
This fight is all about the hype here.
I like Cyril Gane plenty but he hasn’t really beaten anybody but Junior Dos Antos while Jairzinho beat him as well.
Cyril Gane looks the part, he is quick and can take an opponent down, but Jairzinho is a real fighter and he is certainly a top 4 heavyweight.
What some people may not know is that Junior Dos Antos and Jairzinho both fight for the same Gym at American Top Team and they are going to want this fight after one of their guys lost.
The price on this fight is wrong and sometimes we have to take the dog even though the odds say he loses. If I was making this price, it would be Cyril Gane -120 to +100
Jan 11, 2020; Lawrence, Kansas, USA; Baylor Bears guard MaCio Teague (31) shoots against Kansas Jayhawks guard Isaiah Moss (4) during the first half at Allen Fieldhouse. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
Here are some predictions for College Basketball this Saturday.
Boise State vs San Diego State -6 O/U 136.5
Finally San Diego State can stop beating up on the little children of the poor and face some real competition. Since the Aztec’s got their behinds beat by Utah State in Mid January, they haven’t won a game by less than a 14 point margin. This team will be tested vs Boise State who is also in position with San Diego State and 2 other teams to win the mountain west. Being that this game is so big, I really do not want to mess with the side. I think San Diego State is the better team and probably should be about a 5.5 point favorite. What I think that is mispriced is the total. San Diego State plays at a slower tempo at 65.8 possessions but the truth is that they play fast at 16.7 seconds per possession and they eventually slow it down when beating a team towards the end of the game. The same should be said for Boise State who plays at 68.9 possessions but first in the conference at 16.3 seconds per possession. I have this game San Diego State 76 to 70 so I will be playing the over.
Over 138 2 stars
Baylor vs Kansas +5 O/U 142
One thing that has been hot in the sports betting world this year is fading teams after a covid Pause. Baylor was out for about 21 days to then play the worst team in the Big 12 at home only to barley win 77-72. What people might not remember about that is that Baylor had a harder time vs Iowa State earlier in the year when they only won 76-65. Not exactly a blow out. Anyways, if you think like everyone else, you will want to be betting Kansas as a dog. Well I really do not want to think like everyone else here. I saw this game played in Waco earlier this year and Kansas actually hung in there pretty well. One thing that I have notice as of late is that Kansas has been playing some nice defense ranking 9th on Haslametric’s in efficiency. I can’t say for sure if Baylor is going to still look bad after having an additional 3 more days of practice but what I can say is that the under might be in play here. If Baylor is shooting bad then the under has a great shot to win. If Baylor isn’t shooting bad then they still have two top 10 defenses dueling it out. I am going to play the under in this game.
Under 142 – 2 stars
Florida State vs North Carolina +3 O/U 151.5
North Carolina is back to playing sloppy fast paced basketball and it showed last game when they helped us cash our Marquette ticket. They had 19 turnovers and shot less than 28% from 3. Not going to get you places.
This here is a much bigger game for North Carolina and also big opportunity to try and improve their seed in the ACC tournament.
Don’t get me wrong, Florida State with this win should secure a top seed in the ACC tournament and they will also be running and gunning this game.
UNC’s defensive efficiency on Kenpom ranking 26th in the nation is flat out wrong to me and I think that they will be giving up some points here at home.
Florida State has no problem running up and down the court and they have scored 78 or more points 9 out of their last 10 games.
UNC’s games vs Marquette and Louisville both went at least 73 possessions.
I think this game goes over and I don’t have a problem betting a high total
Back on a roll after a sweet 4-1 night in NBA betting; that’s 52-36 overall on NBA Bets for the month of February (59%). Not too shabby. Tons of opportunity tonight, let’s get it!
John Wall over 21.5 (-109), 1 unit: Despite saying I’ll never bet on Houston ever again, this is a Rockets-based bet I like. Don’t yell at me, Twitter. The return of Victor Oladipo could be huge for the Rockets. We’ll see, but I think it’ll do wonders for John Wall. Without Oladipo, Wall has served as the sole producer for his team at times. And that can be quite a load to carry. Maybe Houston’s finally feeling the affects of the James Harden trade. Oladipo is a menacing, cerebral offensive performer and should be able to distract a good Raptors defense enough to free up John Wall’s opportunities. Wall is actually getting a reduced number for his return– I think it works in his favor. This is a good value bet.
Avoid Celtics Games: Seriously. Until they become more predictable and consistent, avoid betting on Boston games. On paper and in potential, at home, one would think the Celtics have a great chance to get off the schneid and end this ridiculous 3-game skid. One would think. The Pacers are a very solid team and are not a unit to underrate. Like the Pelicans, Hawks and Mavericks have, all of which are average teams at best, the Pacers could easily punk Boston again tonight, especially with the way Boston has been performing late in games. Don’t waste your time or money.
Jazz -6.5 (-110), 2 units: I had this game at -8 in Utah’s favor with a fully healthy Miami roster. I might’ve looked at the Heat side if that were the case, but I don’t like that Bam Adebayo has a questionable tag heading into Friday night. Even worse– it’s a knee issue. That means Bam will either be out, benched or limited, which are all bad prognoses for the Heat against a dominant Rudy Gobert down low. Even with Adebayo playing, the Heat are under-sized and vulnerable against a solid defensive unit like Utah. Add in Gobert’s ability to dominate on boards and distract defenders to find the open man and this could be a recipe for disaster. I love the way Miami has been playing but this looks like another blowout win for Utah. Bet the Jazz.
Clippers -6.5 (-105), 1.5 units: Did Memphis read my article and get fired up about their defense last night? The Grizzlies were stupid-good at guarding the Clippers Thursday. They also shot 58% from 3 point land and 54% from the field– that’s absurd. I’m not sure what happened but, barring any random “rest-time” by Kawhi or Paul George, expect the Clippers to get their revenge Friday night. I don’t think the Grizzlies match up particularly well against LAC; I think they just had a good night. Don’t let an aberration fool you.
Suns/Bulls over 226.5 (-110), 1 unit: This is a really interesting game. The Bulls are top 5 both in points per game and pace, but they’re not exceptional in offensive efficiency (14th). That tells us (the eye test shows us, too) that Chicago relies on their pace and fast breaks to produce and overwhelm teams. While the Suns can contest that to a degree, this is a good home spot for Chicago. The Bulls will be poised and comfortable on their home court and I suspect the swishes will follow. The Suns have Minnesota on deck Sunday, nothing to fear, so both teams should be totally invested Friday night. Phoenix is top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency and only the Knicks play at a slower pace. The Suns are the better team but I like Chicago to force this game into at least three 60+ point quarters, even if they’re not the victor. That should give us a 4th quarter bordering on 170-185 points, which should push this game over the total. I love 4th grade math.
Lakers -5 (-110), 2 units: Alright LAL, time to get off the schneid for real this time. This is a really good setup for the Lakers. Dennis Schröder, who is probable to return, will add much needed depth to the point guard position and he’s an exceptional dribbler and facilitator. The lack of Anthony Davis’ front court presence has really showed in the Lakers’ 4 game losing streak, but it doesn’t scare me tonight. Robert Covington and Enes Kanter are not menacing big men, so Lebron and Gasol should be able to impose their will consistently in this contest. This is the final game of a tough road stretch for Portland, who may be more excited just to return home. Damien Lillard is always a threat to score 40 or 50+ and carry his team, but as long as LAL shores up the paint, I worry not. The Lakers start a nice 3 game homestand Friday and I expect Lebron, Schröder, and others to be highly motivated and cover the number easily.
