Can the run continue? The Oregon State Beavers are on pace to become the first #12 seed in the Final Four. Let’s talk about this Beavers offense first. They have made a whopping 50 three-pointers, and have been able to shoot 41.7% from behind the arc. Ethan Thompson has carried the load for this Oregon State offense. Last outing against Loyola Chicago, Thompson scored 22 points. Defensively, Oregon State is playing so much better than they did in the regular season. The Beavers have limited teams in the tournament to 20.5% from behind the arc. The team even set a record for 11 total blocks in a NCAA Tournament game. The defense is on another level right now.
The AAC player of the Year Quentin Grimes has other plans. Houston is backed by their tenacious defense. Houston has limited teams to shooting 28% from the field, and 21.2% from behind the arc. These numbers play into how the Cougars crash the boards. Houston has out rebounded opponents 117-84 in the tournament. They also have edged opponents 43-22 on the offensive rebounding, which led to 40 second chance points. Houston is ranked 2nd in the NCAA in defensive efficiency.
Oh man, The Oregon State Beavers, winners of their last 6 games, how do you go against a team on this much fire? Well… here is how. Houston is the best team this Beavers team will have faced all year. They beat a Tennessee team without John Fulkerson, an Oklahoma State team who really only has Cade Cunnigham, and finally a Missouri Valley Conference team who’s run had to end eventually just like Oregon States will. Houston’s ability to shutdown opponents defensively, and rebound any ball that is shot, is going to completely eliminate the Beavers. The Cougars will continue their offensive strides from behind the arc, put up ridiculous second chance numbers, and Quentin Grimes will lead Houston to the Final Four.
Back off a nice break (had the boys over yesterday and life felt NORMAL, which was amazing) from NBA action, it’s a Sun-daze over here and I can’t wait to just watch sports today. Just like my Sweet 16 article, I apologize for the brevity of this post but it’s a wildly busy day here at the house. Here are my picks for today’s NBA slate:
Raptors win (+105), 1 unit: I’ll take a shot on Toronto here. Traveling to Florida is always a tough spot for Portland and the Raptors, although we faded them a few nights ago and won, are a much better team when healthy. Their defense could give Damian Lillard issues tonight and if Portland is slowed down on offense, they’ll be in trouble. Give me the Raptors for a little + money!
Nuggets -4.5 (-110), 2 units: I don’t love how many players are either questionable or out for Denver tonight, which just makes their bench a little more shallow, but Atlanta isn’t ideally healthy either. The Nuggets are in a great spot after that big and monkey-on-back-removing win over the Pelicans two nights ago. Denver hosts Philadelphia in two nights but both today’s game and that game are at home. Atlanta is on an absolutely horrific road trip right now and Denver smack dab in the middle doesn’t help. I’m all over the Nuggets.
Magic/Lakers under 208 (-110), 2 units: The Magic can’t score against bad defenses– I’m not sure they’ll get to 95 points against the Lakers. Even without Lebron and AD, the Lakers play well-disciplined defensive basketball at a methodical pace. That hasn’t changed. The Magic are very injured, recently lost 2 key offensive contributors, and only average 104.6 ppg, which is 2nd last in the association. I love this under play.
Creighton on offense is explosive. They thrive on getting points from behind the perimeter. Creighton shoots 43.9% of its shots from behind the arc. Zegarowski is Creighton’s leading scorer with 15.7 points a game. With Creighton’s 14th ranked offense in the country, they will need to find ways to slow Gonzaga on the defensive end.
When you try to look for a flaw in this Gonzaga team, you find yourself searching for awhile. If anything it is their defense. The 28-0 Bulldogs are scoring 92.1 points per game, while giving up 63.0. Gonzaga is ranked top 20 in defensive rebounds. And everyone on this starting 5 can shoot.
This game is not going to be close. Gonzaga can score, and score, and score. They love to run in transition, and that is something Creighton can’t guard. Creighton is bad in the transition. Creighton is ranked 259th in offensive rebounds. Gonzaga is going to grab boards, run, and score.
It’s a wild day at the Farley household so this post will be more brief than usual. Can’t wait to just sit back and watch today’s games once all the mayhem ceases (i.e. we have family coming today, which is always madness). 1-2 yesterday in my picks– let’s do it better today! Here are Sweet 16 Sunday picks:
Creighton/Gonzaga over 158 (-110), 2 units: Gonzaga beats teams in a lot of different ways, but none more famously than just boat-racing their opponents on the scoreboard. Creighton plays good defense but I don’t think they’re built to stop all the diverse ways that Gonzaga can score. I see the Bulldogs using their pace and effective output to overwhelm the Bluejays from the start of this contest. As a unit, Creighton does a good job finding both high quality shots (they’re 3rd in the nation in near proximity field goal percentage at Haslametrics) and buckets from beyond the arc (ranked 28th overall in 3 point percentage). The Bulldogs play top 10 defense but Creighton will have to increase their tempo and chase Gonzaga throughout, which should push the tally to soar even more. I’ll take the over here for 2 units.
Michigan -2 (-110), 1.5 units: The Seminoles stepped up big time last week and gave us a huge win both here in my free plays for 3 units and for premium customers, but this is where the buck stops if you’re asking me (and you are, right?). Florida State is long and full of skill-players but they don’t do well in big spots like this against elite opponents. We’ve seen it a few times during the season and it’ll be on full display today. Hunter Dickinson and the Michigan Wolverines play smart, efficient basketball on both ends of the court and I expect them to show off just how deadly they are both beyond the arc and at the rim against a Florida State defense that isn’t as disciplined. The Wolverines play methodical and don’t depend on any one type of style. The Seminoles, as talented as they are, are a more emotional and volatile team that needs to play exceptional all game to keep up with an elite team like this. Michigan won’t drop the ball and let that happen Sunday. Bet the Wolverines.
Alabama -6.5 (-115), 1.5 units: I’m on the Bama train! I’ll keep this one real short. I give UCLA a lot of credit for what they’ve been able to do thus far but I’m not as impressed by their level of opponent in the first 2 rounds. Alabama will serve as a huge uptick in class for the Bruins. As you probably know, the Crimson Tide can score and score in bunches very quickly (ranked 11th in tempo on KenPom) and I don’t think the 58th ranked defense of UCLA will be able to keep pace, especially weighing the fact that Alabama has one of the best defenses in the nation. I think Bama wins big here.
Jan 19, 2021; Baton Rouge, Louisiana, USA; LSU Tigers forward Shareef O'Neal (R) guards Alabama Crimson Tide forward Darius Miles (L) during the second half at Pete Maravich Assembly Center. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports
Florida State vs Michigan -2.5 O/U 144.5
I have actually been looking forward to this matchup here and this game is part of the reason that I have Florida State in my final 4. I do not like how Michigan finished the season losing 3 of their last 5 games. Their style of basketball is great, it’s controlled and they have playmakers, but they haven’t faced a team with this height and this is where I think that Hunter Dickenson and Franz Waggoner could struggle getting those high percentage shots. Florida State is a fast paced team who turns the ball over at a big clip but Michigan isn’t a team that really forces many turnovers only ranking 337th on defense forcing only about 14% of possessions to turn. Another thing that makes me like Florida State here is the fact that they can shoot the ball about as well as Michigan and they rebound about the same as well. The Wolverine’s are without their senior leader in Isaiah Livers which really could affect them in a game like this. Leonard Hamilton is 7-2 ATS as a dog with 5 outright wins in the NCAA tournament. I have close to a pickem at 71-71 here.
Creighton vs Gonzaga -13.5 O/U 158.5
Is there anything bad about Gonzaga? This is the most efficient team that I have seen at least since the 2017 Villanova Wildcats. The knock on them is always that they haven’t played a strong schedule. Well being that their games have mainly been statistically final, we really do not know the true ceiling of this team.
One thing that I do know is that Creighton is better than all of the teams that they have faced this year minus maybe Iowa and that game went to 187 points. Gonzaga ranks 2nd and seconds per possession and Creighton ranks 42nd at 16.1 seconds per possession. Gonzaga is scoring 90+ points here for sure. If Creighton gets 70 this game is going over.
I have Gonzaga winning 91-76
Play the over 158 – 3 stars
UCLA vs Alabama -6.5 O/U 145
Who is the real UCLA? The team that lost 4 games in a row before the tournament or an actual legit team who could make it to the elite 8? I think the answer is somewhere in the middle.
What would this line be 1 week ago is the question? 7? 8? 10 points? 2 weeks ago? 11?12?
UCLA lost a few key players throughout the season and some younger guys really stepped up.
UCLA had a pretty easy road to get to the sweet 16 getting a bad Michigan State team, then an overrated BYU team, then Abilene Christian instead of Texas.
After two very shocking upsets, Max Abmas and his #15 seed Golden Eagles look to continue their cinderella run in the Sweet 16. Oral Roberts can shoot from anywhere on the court. They average 81.5 points per game. Max Abmas shoots at a very high clip. He averages 24.5 points per game and is 47.9% from the field. The Golden Eagles are coming off two wins against Ohio State and Florida.
The #3 seed Arkansas Razorbacks look to build off this impressive season. This young team is carried by three freshman in the starting lineup. One of those freshman is highly touted guard Moses Moody. The 6’6 guard is averaging 17.1 points a game. JD Notae is right behind Moody in scoring.
We all love an underdog, but unfortunately it is going to end tonight. With a week off from not playing, all the fire and momentum Oral Roberts was able to build is going to die. Oral Roberts is ranked first in all of the NCAA for 3 Pointers Made. But that is what is going to hurt them tonight. They will be off from shooting and will look less fiery on the court. And if they show any sign of lackluster play, this Arkansas team will smother them. Eric Musselman’s team is deep, and has a very uncanny ability to score.
The Pistons roll into this Saturday night matchup on a 3 game losing streak. They lost their last outing 113-111 at home to the Brooklyn Nets. The Pistons offensive woes continue. They only average 107.3 points per game, while giving up 110.9. Those averages for them prove their record. The Pistons are 12-32 and are one of the worst teams in the NBA right now. Dennis Smith Jr is listed as DTD.
The Wizards also come into this game on a 3 game skid. They hold a record of 15-28, and are coming off disappointing loses to the New York Knicks. The biggest issue with the Wizards continues to be their defense. It is a combination of not being able to guard anyone, and also choosing not to guard anyone. Washington gives up 120.2 points a game. Bradley Beal is listed as DTD.
If Bradley Beal plays, which he should, I do not see this game being close. The Pistons are nothing without Jerami Grant. If the Wizards can find a way to limit Grant’s scoring, then the Pistons will be in trouble. The Pistons lack offense, and the backcourt duo of Westbrook and Beal should be able get the job done at home tonight to end their losing streak.
This is going to be a killer main event here for the heavyweight championship of the world. These are clearly the 2 best heavyweight fighters right now and they face off once again to see who is the best of the best. Back in 2018, these 2 heavyweights fought with Stipe fighting the perfect fight and winning it in a decision. Since then, Stipe has only fought 1 fighter in Daniel Cormier 3 times winning 2 of them. Francis since then has fought 4 fights against, Curtis Blaydes, Jairzihno Rosenstruik, Junior Dos Antos, and Can Valezquez finishing every single fighter in the first round by KO/TKO. Let’s be clear, I think that Stipe is the better technical fighter here but Francis has the power and is an absolute beast when it comes to stand-up and can finish anyone who crosses his path. Ngannou weights 263 lbs with an 83 inch reach, Miocic weighs 234 lbs, is 38 years old with an 80 in reach. I think Francis is a little bit hungrier for that title here. Francis wins this fight to set up a trilogy and I do not think the fight will last that long.
This is a shorter article than usual but I wanted to get my plays out there early so you can look through your options today. Sweet 16 college hoops, NBA action, MLB is on the way and UFC 260 is here! What a day for sports!
Parlay- Nurmagomedov, Menifield, and O’Malley (1 unit to win 1.45): The price is hefty but I think it’s worth it. Abubakar Nurmagomedov needs a win after he got caught in a submission and lost in his first UFC fight. Jaren Gooden is a good matchup for him. Expect a cautious, dominant takedown-heavy win and the young man to live up to his name tonight. * Menifield has dropped 2 straight and gets a nice chance to redeem himself against a less powerful and less athletic opponent. There’s a reason why the over is so juiced in this contest– Menifield should be able to land a KO/TKO win here. We’ll take the ML just to be safe. * Sean O’Malley is worth the hype. He’s extremely long, quick and powerful for a Bantamweight and should have no problem making quick work of Thomas Almedia. O’Malley will have to watch for those leg kicks, however, since 2 foot injuries have somewhat limited his meteoric rise. Almedia has been whipping out those kicks more and should target O’Malley often, but the heavy favorite is too big and crafty and should get a clean win.
Luque/Woodley Does Not Go the Distance (+105): Woodley has been vocal about a resurgence and he’ll get a shot to redeem himself against one of the more entertaining fighters in the UFC. The 29 year old Luque has a ferocious, aggressive fighting style and at 5.72 strikes landed and 5.82 strikes absorbed per minute, is not only one of the most voluminous but one of the most hittable fighters in the division. Normally Tyrone Woodley would love a takedown but I think the veteran and former champ wants to make a statement Saturday. Either Woodley gets knocked out here or he tries to go for it all. We’ve heard the cries about how boring his fights can be. That moniker must bother him and he’s too smart to not take advantage of Luque’s defensive holes. I think this one could be explosive– at least that’s what we hope for in a small octagon at the APEX!
Ngannou wins by KO/TKO/or DQ (EVEN): Let’s be clear here– Francis Ngannou will not be winning this heavyweight title bout by submission. I mean, stranger things have happened but yea, no. Not happening. And the longer this fight goes, the more it favors Stipe. We’ve seen how well Stipe was able to absorb Francis’ punches in their first bout. He has a ton of endurance and once he survived that terrifying opening onslaught from Ngannou, he proceeded to take down “The Predator” over and over again. It’ll be a tale of two fights in that sense– if Stipe can survive the first 2 rounds, the champion may prove once again why many think he’s the best to ever do it at this weight class. But not so fast my friends, not so fast. If you’ve listened to Ngannou recently on Joe Rogan or in his countless interviews leading up to this contest, he’s a different fighter. His first fight against Stipe was over 3 years ago– that’s a longgg time. The Cameroonian monster is smarter, quicker, and undoubtedly has a higher IQ and bigger gas-tank after training with Kamaru Usman. He wasn’t ready for that moment in 2018, but I think he’s ready now. His quick work of the best competition in the heavyweight division has been mightily impressive. And you can tell the man is humble and gentle outside the octagon; maybe that’s something that affected his aggressiveness in the past. His most recent win against Rozenstruik revealed a different animal. Ngannou knocked out the talented Rozenstruik within 20 seconds and it was the way he did it that was most impressive. He knew the fight was over, but he kept throwing and landing hellacious punches until the referee basically tossed his body in between him and Rozenstruik. It was a reflection of his confidence, newfound aggression, and how much more precise his striking is. Stipe is one of the smartest and most well-rounded fighters in the history of the sport. But sometimes, just like Jan’s win over Israel at UFC 259, the combination of pure size and skill, along with an elevated fight IQ, is just too much for even the best fighters to overcome. Get ready to crown perhaps the most terrifying champion we’ve ever seen– I think Ngannou erases any doubts tonight.
These 2 teams played earlier this year with Arkansas securing the win 87-76. Arkansas started off slow and had to get back into this game late to win by 11. This Oral Roberts team has been electrifying and certainly the funnest team to watch in the tournament. They play fast and they are hitting some big big shots. Both of their games were close both went to overtime. The reason for Oral Roberts success was the turnover margin. Ohio State turned it over 16 times to their 6 and Florida turned it over 20 – 12 times? Can this keep up? Not likely. Arkansas is a complete team here and I expect this game to look a little bit more like the second half of the Colgate game. Arkansas ranks 10th in defense and Oral Roberts ranks 234th. Arkansas also is the better shooting team at 45.3% to 44.3% in a much harder conference. I think the Razorbacks can cover this game but I do not like their slow starts so I think that you will get a better number on them in-game betting. Wait for the game to be close and hit Arkansas. If the game isn’t close, then hit the under.
Lean Arkansas -11 and lean under 159
Syracuse vs Houston -6 O/U 140.5
Houston isn’t the best shooting team here and it has showed against Rutgers but I also think that Syracuse has been shooting out of their minds lately averaging about 50% from 3 their last 2 games and 49.4% overall their last 3 games. Houston has had their stinkers away from home this year but they have been consistently a top 10 team in the nation while Syracuse was thought to miss the tournament a week ago. The key thing for me is that Houston can defend the three pointer ranking 12th in the nation allowing 29.2%. Now they also play in a very bad shooting conference and all but that is still pretty high. Syracuse has been so hot and cold this year that it wouldn’t surprise me if they were hitting shots here or if they were missing and Houston would drain clock. My biggest fear is the Orange’s match-up zone that could confuse Houston and cause them to miss a lot of shots. I have Houston winning 73-65 but do I want to go against Jim Boeheim when his is 20-12 ATS since 2006 in this tournament? Probably not, but I think the under is a decent play because I can see many ways that it could hit.
