The winning continues! I went 3-1 last night, which makes our overall record 12-6 in NBA Free Picks this week! Gotta love that. It’s getting sunny and warm in the Northeast; what’s not to be happy about?! Happy Friday!

Celtics/Bucks over 235 (-110), 1 .5 units: My favorite play on this game is still the over, even after winning this exact same bet 2 nights ago (albeit when the line was at 230, but still). Check out my article from Wednesday on why I think this is such a solid bet. It was my play of the night then and it might be again Friday. I see no reason why this game wouldn’t fly over the total. Look for more defense early and then a lower live total line to take advantage of, too. The pendulum will swing back, mark my words.

Suns -4 (-110), 2 units: On Wednesday I jumped on the opportunity to let the gambling world know that the line (-3) looked awfully sneaky on the Denver/Toronto game. I thought the Raptors were a live dog and as it turned out, boy were they ever. And now we’re seeing quite the line adjustment here as the Suns are mere 4 point road favorites after that ass-whooping Toronto put on the Nuggets. I’m happy to take advantage. The Raptors are a very solid team and I think they’ll be sneaky if they make the playoffs. When they’re healthy and hot, they’re tough to beat. Toronto plays highly disciplined defense and they’re very well balanced; no one ego or star is too big for the team. We saw the result of that reality 2 nights ago, but let’s take a closer look at that game again. Denver was in a tougher spot, on the road and coming off a game just one night before at Orlando, where they squeaked by with a win. The Raptors were in prime position– back at their new home in Tampa, rested, and all of their players were finally healthy after a long COVID/injury disruption to their roster. Spirited and ready to end their losing streak, the Raptors shot 50% from the field and from beyond the arc and overwhelmed the Nuggets early. Denver wasn’t ready or motivated enough for that effort. The result was a beat-down and 24 point win. And now I think it’s time to fade Toronto. Phoenix just had a bad loss to Orlando and comes into tonight nearly done with their road trip– only one more game left on Sunday against a LaMelo-less Charlotte squad. The Suns won’t be intimidated or thrown off by the way the Raptors play. Phoenix plays slow, methodical and efficient and they really lock players down on defense. The Raptors are built to stifle and surprise rhythm teams like the Nets and Nuggets, not the Suns. Their style will play right into the hands of a Phoenix team who wants to get back to their winning ways now that LAL is without Anthony Davis and Lebron. There are new openings in the VIP seats of the Western Conference and the Suns want in. I’ll take the Suns to cover on the road, and it just might be with ease.

Rockets/Timberwolves over 229 (-110), 1 unit: Well if anyone can help the Rockets offense it’s the 26th ranked Minnesota defense. With Oladipo gone, the Rockets now have a better idea of who they are and how they have to grow moving forward. Avery Bradley and Kelly Olynyk could be nice additions for Houston and the team may be a little less distracted, too. Let me be clear– do I think Houston is now a better team without Oladipo? Hell no. But clarity helps and now they realize who their one and only star is: John Wall. Let’s work on cultivating his abilities in that offense, shall we? Minnesota ranks 28th in points allowed per game, while the Rockets come in at a cold 23rd. While neither team is blazing the court with high powered offense, they both routinely allow teams to score in the 120s and they play at an equally quick tempo, ranked 4th and 5th in overall pace. I see this as a 123-119 type of game so I’ll go with the over for a humble unit.

Games to Watch, not Bet: Grizzlies vs. Jazz (Lean, Grizzlies +10) and Pelicans vs. Nuggets (Lean, Nuggets -2.5): This Utah number is too big, in my opinion, but I can’t bet it since Memphis will be playing their 5th game in 7 days tonight and could see some fatigue. The Jazz are also awfully good at home. I’ll be curious to watch how well Memphis plays in this spot. The Grizzlies are quietly on a little tear right now. They’ve won 3 straight games and they’ve looked really good on both ends of the court against formidable opponents. Let’s see how they stack up against an elite, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they kept this game closer than expected. The Jazz just played the Nets B team 2 nights ago in a game that was never competitive and this will be a doubleheader against the Grizzlies. Memphis could catch em sleeping, at least in the 1st half (I’m talking myself into a 1 unit bet here, might do it). The Pelicans look good recently and just eked by Denver a few nights ago in a close battle. Denver just got trampled by the Raptors as their road trip continues. I’d take Denver for the revenge angle here but it’s a tough one to feel confident about. I’ll be excited to just observe and take notes on these two games.

Lean, Magic +9.5 (-110): Are the Blazers better than Orlando? Definitely. Can the Magic keep up with Portland’s high-octane offense? Probably not. But should the Blazers be 9.5 point favorites on the road against Orlando? No, that’s a little much. I realize Aaron Gordon and Nikola Vucevic are gone as the Magic look to their future, but like I said about the Rockets, sometimes the end of a trade deadline can fire up a team. Can’t bet it, but I think that line is inflated. If this were 7.5 to 8.5, I’d be all over it.

Lakers total points over 105.5 (-110), 1.5 units: This is a good spot for a little LAL resurgence. Last night we took the Lakers total under 105 and cashed, but this game is entirely different. Cleveland is really hurt and Kevin Love won’t play tonight. Cleveland displays a pedestrian defense, at best, that will look worse than its marginal stats Friday because of all their injuries. Kuzma and Schroder and Morris are due for some positive regression along with the rest of the Lakers’ offense as they try to navigate this new territory in the wake of his Lebron’s absence. Make no mistake, the Lakers are still talented, so they’ll only get better on offense (especially with Lebron steadily advising them off the court). Marc Gasol returns tonight, who should provide an uptick in production, and he’s a good front-court facilitator for the offense, too. I like the Lakers side in this game (-4) but I like the total bet even more. Time to LAL to figure some shit out and Coach Lebron should have his team ready to feast on a lesser Cleveland unit.

It’s another great week for us here at the OddsBreakers as I’ve gone 9-5 this week, though it feels like I’ve done even better. Premium members hit on a +650 parlay last night and we probably should have had a win with Indiana at -6, who stuttered at the end to only win by 5. Regardless, the association is in full focus and we head to Thursday, although I must say I don’t love today’s games quite as much. Remember, part of successful long-term sports betting is fading games you don’t feel right about. It’s just like a stock– you wouldn’t double-down on a commodity that’s been on the rise for 3 weeks and could level out or devolve any second. Bet methodically. That being said, I absolutely SHOULD HAVE put a play on Toronto last night. Okay this is turning into a rant. Onto the picks!

Blazers/Heat over 218.5 (-110), 1.5 units and Blazers +3 (-105), 1 unit: It’s hard to pick a side in this one. Both the Heat and Blazers are on their own cold streaks. Miami was starting to look real feisty again, kind of like the team we knew and grew to love in last year’s NBA Finals, but injuries and a string of tough competition has Miami now losers of 4 straight. Those two straight losses at home against Indiana must have particularly stung since their Eastern Conference rival could very well be a playoff contender here soon. Before those recent losses, Miami won 11 of 12 games through February and March. The Blazers just dropped 2 games in a row at home, one to the Mavericks and one to the Nets, which aren’t bad losses but Portland’s dependable offense has been anything but recently. Portland still sits comfortably at 6th in the Western Conference (and yes, playoff motivation is something we have to start to consider) but they’ll have to hope for some positive regression on offense to get back on the mend. Portland can’t exactly count on a defense that ranks 29th in adjusted efficiency on Hollinger’s NBA ratings (ESPN). This feels like a great spot to take an over. Miami plays at a methodical pace and they’re among the lowest scoring teams in the NBA, but Portland will come out aggressive tonight. The Blazers know that if they want to get off the schneid they have to overwhelm the Heat with their high-percentage shooting and dimes from beyond the arc. Insert Damian Lillard. I really like the Blazers’ star to have a big game. The player-prop for his total points is set at 29.5– I’d go over. The Heat could win this game but they’re still contending with injuries and I expect the Portland offense to play fired up and push this total over tonight. I’ll also put 1 unit on the Blazers, a team that’s 8-4 ATS as away underdogs. Cha ching!

Lean, Knicks -3 (-110): This is not a play for me, but the Knicks were really impressive against the Wizards 2 nights ago. I called it and we all cashed on it Tuesday night, by the way. The Knicks were stifling on defense, forcing Washington into difficult shots and a ton of turnovers, and they took full advantage of the Wizards’ porous front court (Randle dropped 37 points, another angle we predicted). Out of respect for Washington in a double-header, I’ll only lean New York, but I don’t see why it wouldn’t happen again.

Spurs +6.5 (-110), 1 unit: Will the Clippers stomp the Spurs for a second straight night in San Antonio? Meh. Maybe. Will Kawhi Leonard even play? I haven’t heard anything yet but this feels like an optimal spot for a late-breaking announcement that Kawhi is sitting out to “rest,” and probably 5 minutes before tip-off as always (eye roll). The long-time Spur was excellent last night. Kawhi went 9/12 from the field and dropped 25 points and 7 rebounds on the Spurs. Paul George added another 17, Morris bucketed 20, and LAC completely stymied San Antonio with an aggressive and disciplined defensive effort. LAC’s defensive ratings (Hollinger has them at 13th overall) are a bit skewed, too. This is easily a top 10 defense when everyone’s healthy and playing. The Clippers have elite defenders at every position and if they’re shooting well, 20-30 point wins will come easy. That being said, I think the pendulum swings back Thursday night. San Antonio turned the ball over 16 times Wednesday and only shot 32% from beyond the arc. They also got out-rebounded and fouled more than LAC. It’s likely the Clippers win again, especially if all of their stars play, but Greg Popovich and the Spurs are a proud bunch, albeit a young proud bunch, and I expect them to play gritty in the second leg of a back-to-back. San Antonio is also in the middle of a 7 game home stretch while the Clippers have to turn around and face Philly in two days, so they could be looking over their shoulder. Better spot, second game back, I’ll take a light unit on the Spurs.

Lakers under 105 points (-115), 1.5 units: The 76ers defense is for real. Even without Embiid, the way Philly locked down the Warriors in the 4th quarter Tuesday night was really impressive. Golden State was on a run– they outscored the Sixers 40-21 in the 3rd quarter and went ahead by 5 entering the 4th. Then, with Simmons back in the game, Philly completely turned the game around and it started with their defense. Allowing only 13 points in the 4th quarter and forcing turnovers and shot-clock violations throughout, the Warriors lost their momentum and ended up losing by 10 points (which cashed another Philly/under parlay for us). Now the Sixers travel to LA for 2 games against the city’s elite programs– LAL Thursday and then LAC on Saturday. I’ll look at a full game under for their game against LAC, but this feels like a good team under tonight. The Lakers are really struggling since Lebron left and somehow they’ll have to find a way to accumulate some wins with the OG down for at least a few weeks. Like I said in my article Tuesday, what you may not know about Lebron is that not only was he leading his team in points, but he led the Lakers in rebounds and assists, too. He was the integral piece to their offensive efficiency and it’s showing. The Lakers have averaged 99.6 ppg in their last 3 contests and Philadelphia’s 2nd ranked defense probably isn’t going to help. Furthermore, LAL is in the bottom half of the NBA in tempo; unfortunately that plays right into the hands of Philly. I like the total to fly under 216 but I like LAL’s total to go under even more. Eclipsing 25 points a quarter will be a tall task for the Lebron-less Lakers.

Well I won’t be betting on every NBA game tonight– that’s a long-term losing strategy that action junkies embrace– but that philosophy went well last night! I was 5-1 overall, including that Philly/over parlay, and feel like I should have gone 6-0 but Portland blew a great spot. The Blazers remind me of the Pelicans in that way– enigmatic stars, high-powered offense, but full of volatility. Either way, 5-1 is a damn good night. Onto Wednesday’s picks!

Pacers -6 (-110), 1.5 units: Well to say Indiana was sorely disappointed by their performance 2 nights ago would probably be a grand understatement. After riding high following 2 impressive wins at Miami, the Pacers traveled to Milwaukee and got punked by the Bucks. And that was without Giannis. That’s kind of the story of Indiana though, isn’t it? The Pacers, like the Knicks, beat up on low to mid-tier teams and I’m sure they’ll make the postseason. They’re full of potential and very balanced, owning the 18th best offense and 13th best defense according to Hollinger’s team ratings. Unfortunately, the Pacers are also a bad ATS team. Look at any angle and across the board, whether at home, following a loss or overall, they’re not great at covering the number. That being said, the Pistons are 2-8-1 in their last 11 games at Indianapolis. They’re also one of the worst teams in the league and we may be entering “white flag season;” I could see the Pistons just quitting in a lot of games. Detroit has a laundry list of injury designations, too. Besides TJ Warren, the Pacers are healthy and looking for a little comeback after 2 nights ago. A mere 2+ possession seems low when taking all that into consideration. I’m on Indy.

Upset Watch: Lean, Toronto wins (+130): If you think a line is sneaky, you’re probably right. I think Toronto could win this game tonight. The Raptors have now lost 9 straight and seem to be spiraling, right? Perhaps to the naked eye. But the Raptors have been devastated by COVID and random injuries. Now the entire team is healthy and they’re back at home. I think Denver is one of the NBA’s elite teams but this is an IDEAL spot for the Raptors. Watch for the upset here.

Celtics/Bucks over 230 (-110), 2 units: Lately the Bucks have been absolute lightning at home. In the past 5 games, they’ve averaged 125.4 ppg and it hasn’t been against bad defenses. They just dropped 140 at home against Indiana, WITHOUT Giannis, and recently scored 134 points against the Knicks. I’m not sure if Giannis is playing tonight but that doesn’t matter to me. Milwaukee averages 120 ppg, which is second only to the Nets, and Boston has really struggled on defense lately. Injuries to Romeo Langford and Tristan Thompson haven’t helped. The Bucks also play at the 3rd quickest tempo in the league and they’re 4th in offensive efficiency. The Celtics defensive statistics are dropping by the day, now ranked 21st overall in adjusted efficiency (all of these stats courtesy of Hollinger’s team ratings on ESPN). I’ll be hammering this over tonight. Might be a good look to parlay a Bucks ML with the over, too.

Nets +6 First Half Only (-110), 1 unit: This is just too many points. Obviously I get why the line stands where it does, with Utah at home and Brooklyn off a nice win last night against Portland (and a brutal road schedule, too). But still, a double[digit line on Brooklyn as the dog? Naa. I don’t think Blake Griffin sitting out makes much of a difference and we’ve seen Harden and other playmakers take this team on their shoulders. Hell, Harden may be better without the other stars. He loves being in the spotlight. I’ll take the first half line instead of the full game since the Jazz, being the healthier and situationally advantaged team, could very well pull away later in the game. The Nets are too good on offense to not keep it close, though.

Mavericks -8 (-110), 1 unit: I’m a little gun-shy on this one so it’ll just be for one unit. Dallas is quietly on a tear right now. Winners of 7 of their last 10, the Mavericks are set up well for a playoff run. They’re also improving steadily, now ranking in the top 10 in offensive efficiency and showing some signs of life on defense, too. And Luka Doncic is closing in on becoming another MVP contender. The Slovenian star has averaged 35.5 points in his last 4 games and it seems the reappearance of Kristap Porzingis has really helped his output. The Timberwolves are at home for their next few games so they should be comfortable tonight, but the Mavericks have looked great. Not to mention– Minnesota is TERRIBLE on defense and very inconsistent on offense. I’ll put a unit on Dallas.