UFC Fight Night – Rozenstruik vs. Gane: Best Value Bets

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February 26, 2021

UFC Heavyweight Rozenstruik pictured knocking out his opponent.

The UFC schedule is in full swing now and ya love to see it! Yet another fight night comes to us on ESPN+, one week before a huge card at UFC 259. Here are some of the best value bets that I like this Saturday night:

Sabino Mazo (-210): It may be a big number but she’s worth the price. The 23 year old out of of Columbia is one hell of a striker. She’ll enjoy a 2 inch reach advantage Saturday night and that will be an issue for Alexis Davis. Davis is a solid veteran fighter but I’m afraid she’s on the wrong end of her career. She comes into this fight with 3 straight losses. The “Columbian Queen” is hungry, very accurate, and has a ton of potential. She won’t let this opportunity pass.

William Knight wins (-110): Alonzo Menifield needs a win. At one time Menifield was one of the brightest prospects in the UFC. Then he lost 2 straight to opponents he really should have beaten. Enter opponent #3. William Knight is a dangerous fighter. He looks huge for a light heavyweight and hits even harder. He’s accurate too, landing over 76% of his significant strikes. Although he’ll enjoy a 3 inch reach advantage, I think Alonzo’s brand takes a real shot on Saturday. Menifield likes to pick his spots and unless he lands an enigmatic uppercut or kick, Knight should be the aggressor and I think there’s a good chance he overwhelms Menifield. We’ve seen Alonzo succumb to similar styles before. The UFC isn’t doing him any favors by lining him up against Knight to get off the schneid. Menifield should be ultra-motivated, but I see Knight stealing this one.

Ramazan Kuramagomedov wins (-115): Despite having the most intimidating last name in all of MMA, Ramazan Kuramagomedov is a highly underrated addition to the UFC roster. Quick, athletic, and equipped with a kickboxing arsenal that could wear down or knockout any fighter, Kuramagomedov will be motivated to assert himself in his debut. Alex Oliveira is a veteran in the UFC and at this point seems to be on the back end of his career. Even in recent victories (he lost his last fight in Oct 2020 but won 2 others last year), he’s looked sluggish and worn. This sets up perfectly for the younger fighter to get a debut win. Ramazan Kuramagomedov will be hyped up Saturday and as long as he doesn’t get caught making a rookie mistake, he should win comfortably.

Jairzinho Rozenstruik to win by KO/TKO (+310) or Ciryl Gane to win by KO/TKO (+160): Pick your poison. I don’t think there’s any way this fight goes the distance. This has an alpha-male feel where both fighters will want to prove they’re the baddest dude in the octagon. The price on Gane (-290) is way too high and probably undeserved. I believe in his knockout power and potential, but Rozenstruik has faced some of the toughest heavyweights in the UFC. His only loss was to who I think will become the new heavyweight champion soon, Francis Ngannou. Although it was a bad knockout, it wasn’t a bad loss. Both of these monsters will enter the cage at over 250 pounds Saturday and they’ll be hungry to make a statement. It’s tough to pick a side, but the value bet is on the KO/TKO prop for + money.

Podcast 13 – 21 – With Erik Haslam and John Ryan – College Hoops Feb 26th – 27th & UFC Fight Night 186 – Sports Betting

By

Kiev O'Neil

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February 26, 2021

The OddsBreakers Sports Betting Podcast — The OddsBreakers All Rights Reserved

We have an amazing show for you today. Erik Haslam from Haslametrics.com @HaslaMetrics and John Ryan @JohnRyanSports1 from Wagertalk and Sports Memo come on to break down a huge weekend of sports and betting information! First, Kiev gives out some UFC fight night plays for the weekend as well as some college basketball betting spots based on shooting percentage, opponent free throw percentage, opponent 3 point percentage, and teams that have a high variance of outcomes with respect to their expected efficiency line. Next, John Ryan comes on to talk about how he handicaps games and the guys get into some of the big games this weekend as well as some Free Plays! Then, Erik Haslam from Haslametrics comes on to discuss some games and his amazing efficiency and prediction site that is growing exponentially in popularity. How did Erik come up with this site? How can sports bettors use this site to from a predictive analytics standpoint? Kiev and Erik talk about some of the key proprietary information at Haslametrics, that competitive sites do not have, that will give us an edge when it comes to betting college basketball games. Should you need any games broken down for next week, please tweet us @TheOddsBreakers. Have a wonderful weekend!

NCAA: Texas vs Texas Tech – Baylor vs Kansas – Michigan vs Indiana and more!

#Sportsbetting #Gamblingtwitter #NCAA #NFL #UFC #Horseracing

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NBA Picks and Predictions – Feb 25, 2021

By

Chris R. Farley

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February 25, 2021

Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons high fiving during a game.

Do I regret taking the Lakers last night? Nope. A number like that on LAL is rare and if you play the right numbers in the long term you’ll come out way on top. That being said, it sure seems like LAL misses Anthony Davis. Although “the brow” doesn’t have that dog in him that builds a true leader, he might be the most talented all-around athlete in the NBA. He’s 7 feet tall, long, shoots like a point guard, and he’s an elite defender. That’s hard to replace. Onto my Friday Eve picks!

76ers -4.5 (-110), 2.5 units: With Maxi Kleber and Kristaps Porzingis both questionable, the Mavericks will have to rotate big men in and out to try and stop Joel Embiid– not a great prognosis for Dallas tonight. The Sixers play really well at home and Philadelphia is now entirely healthy. Dallas has won two in a row and this feels like a comfortable spot for them to get humbled. Play on Philadelphia with confidence. The difference is class is stark.

Nets -8.5 (-110), 1.5 units: If a bettor tells you he/she has a great angle on Orlando +8.5 tonight, they’re lying. The Nets are on a nasty 7 game winning streak, beating some of the best teams in the association by an average of 9.4 ppg. That run includes victories over the Suns, Lakers, and Clippers. And ALL were on the road. Over this stretch their offense has gained more chemistry and even their defense has improved. Unless Brooklyn has a seriously horrific let-down game tonight, they won’t win by any less than 10 points. Bet on the surging Nets.

Knicks -1.5 (-115), 1 unit: The Kings are a really bad team right now. The Knicks play better at home and just lost an opportunity to beat a Warriors team on a long road trip. New York owns the best defense in the NBA, allowing only 103.8 ppg. Sacramento has the league’s worst defense, rated last in defensive efficiency and allowing 119.9 ppg. The better defense at home in a get-right spot? Psh. Knicks all day.

Clippers -8 (-110), 1 unit: The difference in this game will be from beyond the arc. The Clippers own the best 3 point percentage in the NBA (42.4%). The Grizzlies own the worst 3 point defense in the league, allowing a league high 41.9% from the field. The Grizzlies have been losing their touch on defense and they actually play a little worse at home. I have to take LAC here, even if this number is a little high.

Pelicans/Bucks over 242.5 (-110), 1.5 units: Is Stan Van Gundy the smartest guy in the world? I don’t know. But it’s pretty obvious that if the Pelicans want to win this year, they need to do 2 things: play with a fast pace and FEED ZION. The latter tends to be a real game changer in every contest. Zion in 2021 looks leaner and has been completely unstoppable in the front court this season. The Bucks already push the pace and they’ve been very efficient at home, scoring 128 and 139 points in their last two outings. And the Pelicans might be the worst defense they’ve seen in awhile. I love this over.

College Basketball Thirsty Thursday – Sports Betting

By

Kiev O'Neil

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February 25, 2021

Nebraska vs Illinois -12.5 O/U 144.5

This is a massive spread for Illinois here but I like their spot here. This is the Illini’s last home game before a 3 game road trip and I feel that they are not happy with the way that they played vs Nebraska last game. The Cornhuskers have been more competitive since that Illinois game a few weeks back and the game after, they finally got a B10 win but I can’t see much motivation for this team to finish out when they are a lock for one of the bottom two seeds of the big 10 tournament. Ayo Dosunmu is out with a broken nose but that also could mean that the other players step it up. I think that Illinois will want to put one on this team after that Michigan state loss.

Illinois -15 – 2 stars

Ohio State vs Michigan State +4 O/U 145.5-

Michigan State just ripped a nice win at home vs Illinois. That was a rough game and lots of fouls were had.
Ohio State is coming off of a loss against Michigan and they will be ready for this game.
Michigan State has really improved over the past 2 games and it’s because they stepped up their defense. You can tell they are making a run to make the tournament.
Ohio State is the much better shooting team at 46.4% to 43.1%
Michigan State has the better defense at at 95.2% effective efficiency on Bart Torvik to Ohio State’s 98.1% but that hasn’t stopped the Buckeyes from shutting down most of the Big teams.
Both teams are equal in assists to turnover rate at 1.3 but the key for me is that Ohio State is coming off of a tough loss to a great team, and they will want to bounce back big. I think that this spread last week would have been 7 if Michigan State hasn’t won 2 in a row here.

Ohio State -4 – 2.5 stars

NCAAM Picks and Predictions – Feb 25, 2021

By

Chris R. Farley

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February 25, 2021

A picture depicting Iowa vs. Michigan battling.

Iowa first half +2.5 (-110), 1.5 units and Michigan full game -5 (-115), 1 unit: Much like the Ohio State/Michigan game this past weekend, I think the Hawkeyes can keep pace with Wolverines for most of this contest. Iowa has improved on defense lately and they’re now ranked #1 in adjusted offense according to KenPom, so we know they can score with anyone. I also like the matchup of senior center and future NBA draftee Luka Garza against Michigan’s young stallion Hunter Dickinson. Dickinson should be able to go toe to toe with Garza but I think Garza will be motivated to assert himself as alpha dog in the front court. To me there’s more value in a first half bet; disparity tends to present more glaring over longer periods of time. Michigan is too good on both sides of the ball and they’re at home, so I’ll take a slightly inflated number here for the full game. The Wolverines have as consistent as any team in the nation not named Gonzaga. This should make for great TV.

Weber State -6 (-110), 1.5 units: Weber State needs this game to stay in NCAA Tournament contention, where their chances currently stand at 29% according to Lineups.com. Sacramento State will have significant issues defending and keeping up with the Wildcats, who move at one of the quicker paces in the nation. Take Weber State.

Belmont/EKU over 161 (-110), 1.5 units and Lean Eastern Kentucky +7.5: Two weeks ago these two squads totaled 166 points in a game with a lot of efficient offense. Belmont maintained control throughout all 40 minutes. Now EKU is back at home in a prime revenge spot and they still have a tiny chance of making the tournament. I like their side better than Belmont’s at +7.5, but the Bruins are one of the most consistent teams in the country. They’re on a 21 game win streak and they cover 73.9% of their games, too. That’s enough to scare me away from a side but I like the extra motivation to push the pace for EKU and to send this game soaring over the total.

NBA Picks and Predictions – Feb 24, 2021

By

Chris R. Farley

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February 24, 2021

It was a winning night Tuesday but man oh man, that was a bad loss by Atlanta. Let’s keep grinding and staying true to this 60% win mark. Happy Hump Day NBA bettors!

Avoid Celtics/Hawks: Whew, two very disappointing teams enter Wednesday night after both blew good games they should have won last night. While the Hawks loss was probably worse, it feels like Boston collapsing in the final minutes is a sure thing lately. With Cam Reddish expected out for Atlanta and Kemba Walker expected out for Boston, there’s just too much uncertainty and unpredictability in this game. I guess I would give a slight edge to Boston but, why waste my time? I’ve never written an “avoid” spot before but I feel strongly about this one. Don’t lose money on these frustrating teams. It’s not worth it.

Thunder -1 (-110), 1 unit: This is a much better spot for OKC. The Spurs just got an unexpected 10 day break and now head to Oklahoma City to face a healthy Thunder squad. San Antonio’s laundry list of injuries should not be ignored. Players out for this game include Rudy Gay, Keldon Johnson, Derrick White, DeMar DeRozan, Devin Vassell, and LeMarcus Aldridge is questionable. With Al Horford healthier and playing at home, this is a unique spot for OKC and I think they take advantage. Bet on the Thunder.

Suns -9.5 (-110), 2 units: The poor Hornets can’t catch a break. This is another tough spot for Charlotte, smack dab in the middle of a tough road stretch, 2 days after getting clobbered by the Jazz (although they were competitive for 3 quarters, which may make it worse), and now they’re on the road against the white hot Suns… oh and in 2 days they have to travel to Golden State. Yikessss. I’m breathless just typing that. The Suns are playing with an attitude right now. Chris Paul is the resident OG, slicing and dicing up defenses, they all play incredible defense, and Devin Booker wants to prove he’s the most egregious All-Star snub on a nightly basis. The Hornets don’t produce effectively enough on offense and their defense appears to be regressing. The Suns are the only way to go tonight. This shouldn’t be close.

Lakers +9 (-110), 1.5 units: How often do we get a line like this on Lebron and the defending champs? This line is probably right and I love the Jazz, but Lebron gets up for games like this. You didn’t expect Brady to win against the Chiefs (or against the Packers for that matter) and you won’t expect Lebron and the Lakers to win tonight, but don’t be surprised if they do. The Lakers are in a lull right now but that doesn’t deter me. This is still one of the best teams in the NBA and although the absence of Anthony Davis is rough, they have plenty of contributors to keep this close. Good bettors play the number and you won’t get a number on LAL as a dog like this all season. Take the Lake-show.

NCAAM Picks and Predictions – Feb 24, 2021

By

Chris R. Farley

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February 24, 2021

A Seton Hall basketball play dribbling down the court.

Georgetown let us down and kept us from a winning day as they allowed UConn to surge in the final 10 minutes Tuesday. Sometimes you have the right angle and you still lose the bet– that’s the game we play. Overall I’m 4-5 in CBB this week; let’s get over .500 today!

Dayton -8 (-110), 1 unit: I think Dayton takes care of business in a big way today. Dayton’s pace concerns me a little, but their effectiveness of offense is considerably better than anything Saint Joseph’s can do on defense. The Hawks got a wild OT win a few days ago against LaSalle, another bottom feeder, and should be reasonably tired and unmotivated to play hard against a superior opponent today. Dayton’s slim chances of making the tournament fade away quick with a loss here, so a win by margin would be most comfortable. I’ll take the Flyers for a unit.

Seton Hall -7 (-105), 1.5 units: In every conceivable way, Butler is done. The Bulldogs are far from one of the worst teams in the country, particularly on defense, but they seem to be regressing as the season ends. Losers of now 3 straight by double digits, they haven’t been very competitive or impressive on either end of the court. In other words, there’s not a lot of positive to take from their recent performances. Seton Hall is coming off a disappointing loss at Georgetown 4 days ago and no doubt would love to build some momentum before next week’s showdown against UConn. Not to mention before tournament time. The Pirates should cover with ease today, at least that’s what all the trends suggest.

Creighton -15 (-110), 1 unit: I get the let-down angle, but Creighton is good enough to blow out DePaul even if they’re not playing at their best. This is the third game of a road stretch for the Demons. They got up recently to defeat Saint Johns and now they have to travel to Omaha to face an elite top 25 team. This is a home game for the Bluejays after impressive recent victories on a 3 game winning streak. Creighton in a blowout.

South Carolina first half +3 (-110), 1.5 units: This is a good “I don’t care spot” for Mississippi State. South Carolina is a decent enough team, although they come into Wednesday whimpering on a 5 game losing streak. The Bulldogs just got a big win over Ole Miss 4 short days ago and, without too much more to play for, could easily sleepwalk their way through this game. The Gamecocks play with pace and I think they’ll play considerably harder than Mississippi State, at least in the first half, in an attempt to get off the schneid. Take the Gamecocks to catch the Bulldogs off guard in the first 20 minutes.

NBA Picks and Predictions – Feb 23, 2021

By

Chris R. Farley

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February 23, 2021

76ers star Joel Embiid celebrating with outspread arms.

I think I’m pretty close to insanity-status on betting Houston. Readers– remind me to not bet the Rockets ever again. Seriously, hit me up on Twitter (@ChrisRFarley1) and yell at me if I do. Also follow me on Twitter for nightly updates and live betting opportunities as they come up. Okay, with that, let’s take our 60% NBA win rate into Tuesday:

Hawks -7 (-110), 1 unit: The Cavaliers are an automatic fade for me until proven otherwise. With Andre Drummond still benched until traded and Kevin Love looking improbable for tonight’s game, it makes matters even worse. During this 10 game losing streak, the Cavaliers have lost by an average of 23.9 points. That’s an OMG stat. And not every team they’ve faced this past month was elite. The Knicks pounded them by 21 points, Denver beat them by 38, and OKC easily beat them by 16. Atlanta comes into tonight feeling a little fat and sassy after winning 2 of their last 3 against above-average opponents. Cam Reddish should play tonight and we’ve seen he can be a real difference maker when back in the lineup. This is just a 1 unit bet since we’re dealing with 2 flawed teams, but I’m on Atlanta tonight.

Lean, Boston -2.5 (-110): I don’t love the way the Celtics are playing lately and I just don’t think they’re a great team. Kemba Walker seems to be regressing and even though Tatum and Brown are super talented, it’s not enough. It’s like Brad Stevens has to call the perfect game for them to all be in lock-step. It’s frustrating for Boston and frustrating for fans to watch a team with so much potential. That being said, the Mavericks will be without Kristaps Porzingis Tuesday and they could be looking ahead since they travel to Philadelphia in 2 days, which starts a tough 3-game road stretch. Boston faces Atlanta tomorrow night, not a scary thought, and they should be motivated to redeem themselves after that awful let-down against New Orleans on Sunday. I may not bet this game, but I lean Celtics.

Warriors -1.5 (-110), 1.5 units: The Warriors will get Steph Curry back after an illness on Saturday, and according to multiple sites Steve Kerr thinks Kevon Looney and James Wiseman will return, too. This would give a huge boost to Golden State’s front court, who would essentially go from having no centers to two talented centers overnight. I get why the line is close, the Knicks are a tough team to beat at home, but this is a better spot for a Golden State team on a 2-game skid. I expect a big night from Steph, too. Take the Warriors.

76ers -1.5 (-110), 2 units: Toronto edged out Philly 2 days ago in a good matchup between Eastern Conference rivals. The Sixers will be healthy with all hands on deck tonight and it’s a great revenge spot. I’m taking this with little thought and confidence in Philadelphia to perform better than they have in recent past, particularly on the road. Tampa isn’t as intimidating as Toronto in February, and I love taking the better team in a double-header. Expect a big night from Philly’s big 3, too. PS– Ben Simmons is quietly playing his best basketball yet. He’ll be a difference maker tonight.

Blazers/Nuggets over 230.5 (-110), 2 units: As long as Paul Millsap, Gary Harris and P.J. Dozier are out of the Nuggets’ lineup, I’ll be looking at overs in Denver games. This game is even more likely to go over with Damian Lillard coming to town. Trae Young dropped 35 points on Denver on only 10-19 shooting 2 nights ago– will “Dame-Time” score 50+ Tuesday? He could. The Blazers are in need of a win and they’ll be experiencing a big drop-off in defensive prowess against the Nuggets after that sound beating from Phoenix last night. Portland is starting to lose their short-lived grip on defense, too. This sets up as an easy over– take it with confidence.

College Basketball 2/23/21 Tuesday 2-Pack – Sports Betting

By

Kiev O'Neil

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February 23, 2021

Kansas vs Texas -2.5 O/U 139.5 –

Here are a couple of Big 12 teams going in opposite directions. Kansas has just ripped five games in a row against some of the lessor Big 12 opponents but that still isn’t an easy feat by any means and Texas has lost four of their last 6 games. One thing that I can count on for Texas is that they play fast and do not slow down for anyone. The Longhorn’s average 16.1 second per possession in conference play which is first in their conference. Texas games have went over 140 points 12 of the last 13 times. Kansas on the other hand can play fast as we have all seen over the last 20 years. Their last few games went under but they still rank 3rd fastest in the conference at 16.7 seconds per possession. They will have to adapt to Texas’s style on the road. These teams have already played each other once and Texas won 84-59. I expect a much closer game with some scoring here.

Over 138 – 3 stars

UMASS vs Richmond -9 O/U 150

Here is a nice Atlantic 10 game between 2 teams vying for decent seeds in their tournament. The Spiders has continued their successes from last year and are playing pretty well. The Minuitmen have only played 11 games so far but they are sitting in 3rd place in their conference at 6-2. I will get to the point here. This spread is too high. Umass will be getting some players back from injury and they know the importance of this game. This team according to Haslametrics is the best away from home team in all of basketball and they have a chance to win this one outright. Lastly, both of these teams have Saint Louis on deck but Richmond has to play them much soon which is this Friday. They could be looking ahead a little bit. Take the dog.

UMASS +9 – 1.5 star and sprinkle

NCAAM Picks and Predictions – Feb 23, 2021

By

Chris R. Farley

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February 23, 2021

A nice 2-2 day yesterday with a slight uptick in units. Sam Houston St. played down to their competition and Evansville was competitive all game and nearly covered. Very nearly an undefeated day, but we carry on. Onto Tuesday’s picks:

Pacific -2.5 (-110), 1 unit: Haslametrics tells us that Pacific is one of the most erratic teams in college basketball, but I disagree. The Tigers routinely beat up on the low-tier teams in the West Coast conference, while they struggle and usually get beat-down by the best teams in the WCC (BYU, Loyola-Marymount, Gonzaga, etc.). Their road record sucks, but that’s also a misnomer. Every road game they’ve had has been against opponents that are just far better. It has little to do with home/away splits. This is a small number on a team that plays great defense and averages a healthy 5 points more than San Diego per game. San Diego doesn’t have the talent on offense to overcome. I’ll take Pacific.

UMass 1H +5 (-110), 1.5 units: I’ll take a shot on the UMass Minutemen today but just in the first half. We don’t know as much about UMass since they’ve played an abbreviated season but from what we do know, they’ve been impressive. They’re one of the better teams in college basketball on the road and Haslametrics has them ranked in the top 50 in defensive efficiency. UMass relies on a fast-pace of play and quick, easy buckets to gain an advantage on their opponent. Richmond has a legitimately effective and efficient offense but I think they could be a bit surprised by the Minutemen. I could see Richmond pulling away in the full game– they are the better team on paper– but UMass should be able to keep this close for the first 20 minutes.

Louisville -4.5 (-110), 1 unit: I have a feeling that Notre Dame’s loss against Syracuse has completely gutted the Irish. Notre Dame was winning by 17 points and in full control until the final 8 minutes. Then Syracuse out-scored the Irish 26-7 to end the game and steal a win. Yikes. Notre Dame’s offense was on full display until that point, but how can I not expect some negative regression tonight? Now the Irish, who’s chances of making the tournament are slipping away (TeamRankings gives them a 14% chance) are heading to Kentucky to take on a Louisville team that just got obliterated by UNC. The Cardinals should be ready for vengeance, especially on the defensive end of the ball where they’re usually well up to the task. The Cardinals are also 8-1 at home and beat their opponents by over 10 ppg on their court. Take Louisville.

Missouri -3.5 (-110), 1 unit: The first matchup between Ole Miss and Missouri is not reflective of what will happen tonight. Something was off with Mizzo on February 10th, but now two teams heading in opposite directions meet Tuesday night and I think the final score will look much different. The Tigers are significantly better on offense, they’re at home, and they’re seeking revenge. Don’t over-think this one. Bet Mizzo.

Georgetown +4.5 (-110), 1.5 units: How much will UConn’s James Bouknight play tonight? Dan Hurley admitted that they tried to rest Bouknight more against Villanova but it was a challenge considering the importance of the game. Do the Huskies think they can beat Georgetown without him? Probably not, but this is a good setup for the Hoyas. Georgetown comes into tonight winners of two straight at home and playing all-around great basketball– Seton Hall and Butler are not easy teams to knock off. Assuming Bouknight plays, he’ll be up against senior guard Jahvon Blair, which will prove a difficult and exhausting matchup fort UConn’s star. I like this setup for the Hoyas. Bet G-Town.