I had a decent 3-3 day yesterday that won us .5 units. Better than nothing! I’ve said it before and I’ll say it always– use my articles not to blindly follow my picks but to take in the research and draw your own conclusions. If you have a good grasp on your local market team or your favorite conference and you think my analysis is trash, by all means use that to your advantage. These picks are meant to provide information and insight. Let’s start the week strong!

UNC Greensboro -8.5 (-110), 1.5 units: With a little help from others and by stacking wins to end their season, UNC Greensboro still has an outside chance to make the tournament. The Spartans lead the Southern Conference and can’t avoid a slip since Furman is close behind. Today they go on the road, where they’ve had no problem winning, and face lowly Western Carolina. If there was any chance that Greensboro wouldn’t be motivated this line might have a chance to go the Catamounts’ way. The fact is there’s a much better all around team, with a defense that has limited much more impressive offenses, that will travel to Cullowhee, NC today. That doesn’t bode well for Western Carolina. This one should be a blowout and there are no trends to suggest otherwise.

Evansville +11.5 (-110), 1 unit: I think this is a let-down spot for Drake. At 2nd place in the Missouri Valley Conference and cruising to a tournament bid, the Bulldogs take on Evansville for the second straight day, easily defeating the Purple Aces 85-71 in their first contest. But the box score indicates dramatic disparity in yesterday’s game. While Evansville shot a very good 52% from the field, Drake shot a ridiculous 65%! From 3 point land, the Purple Aces shot 23%. Drake?– an insane 52%! Let’s be clear– Evansville has a very subpar defense so it’s not entirely surprising that Drake was able to take advantage. Regardless, that sort of field goal percentage would be above average without any defenders. How much does Drake care about today’s game? I’m not so sure. The Purple Aces are a solid offensive team. If Drake is less motivated, and I think they will be, Evansville should be able to stick around and make this a close contest.

Sam Houston St. -9.5 (-110), 1.5 units: The Bearkats are poised to make the NCAA Tournament, traveling to Beaumont, Texas today to take on Lamar. I could’ve sworn Lamar was someone’s name, not a college, but here we are. Back in mid-January, Sam Houston State blew the doors off Lamar. The Cardinals just couldn’t keep up, surrendering 96 points and losing by 25. I get that Lamar is on a 5-game losing streak and back at home, which is arguably a better spot for the underdog, but Sam Houston State plays with a fast tempo and can gain margin quick, winning frequently by double-digits against weaker conference opponents. The only pause for taking Sam Houston State is they could be looking over their shoulder with a big game against Abilene-Christian, the conference’s #1 team, looming just 2 days away. I just don’t see it preventing the Bearkats from taking care of business today. Lamar has lost by a margin of just over 8 ppg over their last 5 games; the Bearkats are 12-5 ATS this year. Take the favorite.

USC -4 (-110), 1.5 units: I’ll take a shot on the Trojans tonight. USC is a far better rebounding team and they are significantly taller than the Ducks on average, meaning they should dominate the front court. Although I really like Oregon’s coach Dana Altman, and I think Oregon is a good team that can make it further than pundits think, USC is in a better spot at home after a disappointing loss to Arizona. One or two more losses and the Trojans could slip out of first place in the PAC-12. Expect USC to take care of business tonight.

Washington State was really impressive yesterday, I was stunned by UVA’s loss, and Notre Dame– are you kidding me? Here’s to some much needed positive regression today!

Siena -5 (-115), 1.5 units: Neither Siena or Niagara are teams that you’d want to be cheering for this year. Although the Siena Saints lead the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference, they’re not in the same class as the best teams in the nation. I expect the Saints will suffer a quick exit from the NCAA Tournament. That being said, Siena is a better team than Niagara in every category. The Purple Eagles are bottom feeders in the MAAC and played over their heads yesterday. Look at the recap of their first matchup and you’ll see one stat that really stands out: Siena went, get ready for it, 1 of 14 (7%) in 3-point shots. Wow. Do you think they’ll shoot better today? You should. This is a short line in a revenge game for a proud team slated to make the big dance. Expect Siena to cover.

Maryland 1H only, +2.5 (-110), 1 unit and
Rutgers full game -4, 1.5 units (-110): I love the way the Terps have played as of late. Maryland has shown their best side recently, beating up on mid to low tier Big Ten teams and winning by margin in their last 3 contests. Although calling any Big Ten team mid/low-tier is a murky designation in such a tough conference, I think it helps to put things into perspective in today’s game. Rutgers is a very solid team team this year. This is a better spot, at home, for the Scarlet Knights to take care of business as they approach the tournament. This game would send Rutgers over the .500 mark in Big Ten play, too. But lately these first half bets are working for me. Maryland has a ton of momentum heading into this game and I think it carries over and surprises the Scarlet Knights in the first 20 minutes. Then I think the better team shows up. Rutgers plays really well at home, in fact they’ve won 3 straight in Jersey, and their suffocating defense should hold back Maryland in the end. The Terps are not a prolific scoring team, averaging under 70 ppg this season (and against strong defenses, they’ve struggled). Maryland might win the first half, but Rutgers will surge and cover the full game.

Penn State +10.5 (-110), 2 units: This line is way too big for me. Penn State stumbles into this game and I’m sure Iowa wins, especially with how they’ve vindicated themselves on offense the last 10 games, but Penn State is too good a team to lay this many points against. This is a number for Michigan or Ohio State, not a number an inconsistent Iowa team should receive. Penn State has a very slim chance to make the NCAA Tournament but they will absolutely need to beat the Hawkeyes today to stay alive. With a schedule KenPom ranked #1 in difficulty for most of the season, the Nittany Lions won’t be intimidated. For all of Iowa’s recent success, they’re still a very flawed team. Bet on Penn State to give it their all today and cover this line.

Lehigh/Loyola MD over 140 (-115), 1.5 units: I’m going back to well and betting the over on this game again today. Yesterday’s result was pretty shocking but lightning rarely strikes twice. These are two teams who routinely eclipse 80 points and rely on their offenses to out-pace and out-score their opponents to win. Loyola’s defense stepped up yesterday in a big way, but I can’t even measure how much negative regression they’ll be due for today. I’m betting on Lehigh’s offense to recover and produce like they usually do on Sunday.  Bet the over with more confidence.

Northwestern +6 (-110), 1 unit: This is another number that’s a little too big for me so I’m taking a light unit on the dog. If a favorite needs to cover 6 points in basketball, it means they need to win by more than two possessions. That won’t be easy for Wisconsin to do today. Northwestern is one of the weaker teams in the Big Ten but they’re capable of knocking off elite contenders when they play hard. We’ve seen that when they’ve faced Penn State, Purdue, Indiana, and in two games against Ohio State (one of which they surprisingly won). The Wildcats enter Sunday riding a disappointing 12 game losing streak. Not great. That being said, Northwestern is in a good spot returning home after 5 days rest. This is about as big of an opportunity as they’ll get to show out and put on a great performance. Wisconsin doesn’t necessarily need this win so this is a big let-down spot after a disappointing all-out effort at home in a big game against Iowa 3 days ago. The Wildcats are a great defensive team capable of slowing down an offense like Wisconsin. The Badgers are productive, but not prolific. Wildcats keep this one close.

After the ass kicking I got in CBB yesterday, there’s only room for positive regression today. Here are my picks for a huge Saturday slate of college hoops:

Indiana -6 (-105), 1 unit: I think Michigan State is done. The game against Purdue was the spot and Tom Izzo knew it, and somehow the Spartans still couldn’t muster the performance they needed. I don’t love this number on an Indiana team that’s way too up and down, but I like it as a fade of Michigan State. The Spartans have to pick themselves up off the ground and travel to Bloomington Saturday at noon, knowing their chances of making the tournament are slim to none. With much less to play for, I like Michigan State to buckle once again and the Hoosiers to gain some rare margin against a Big Ten team. I have this game ending 73-65, right over the number.

UConn 1H +3.5 (-110), 1.5 units: I would be on UConn’s side for the full game if it wasn’t for Villanova’s big loss last weekend. The Wildcats got humbled in a big way against conference foe Creighton a week ago and I expect they’ll be ready to assert themselves on the Huskies. The Huskies won’t be any less motivated, though. UConn has a new energy since Bouknight’s return. Playing over their head and nearly perfect basketball against Xavier without their star, James Bouknight returned to help UConn avenge their loss against Providence, scoring 18 points as UConn dominated the Friars in the second half and cruised to a win. This is a UConn team with real momentum and I think some of that carries over into the first part of this contest. If I had a lean on the full game, my bet would be on Villanova to flex in the second half and cover the number. Nova’s head coach Jay Wright is one of the more adaptive, intelligent coaches in the game. Villanova will be ready.

Loyola (MD)/Lehigh over 141 (-110), 1.5 units: Sometimes this shit isn’t rocket science. Both of these teams are really struggling on defense, and it seems both teams can only win when they can out-score their opponent. I think Loyola and Lehigh are pretty evenly matched, and maybe this total is lower because the books are expecting some positive regression from these teams on defense. I’m not. The winner will be the team who gets to 80 points. With a line around 4.5, that should give us an easy over.

Notre Dame wins (+135), 1 unit: Upset alert! Okay, this isn’t a huge upset, but I really like the Notre Dame side on Saturday. The Irish have quietly won 6 of their last 8 games and they haven’t beaten slouches either. Big wins against Miami, Duke, and Pittsburgh have shown how effective Notre Dame’s offense can be. The Irish will have to play with a concerted effort against Syracuse on the defensive end, but this line is telling us how close and competitive this game should be. If it’s as close as the books predict, than I love a surging Notre Dame offense to sustain momentum are overtake the Orangemen. They’ve done it plenty before.

Florida State -5.5 (-110), 2 units: I believe in Florida State. One of my favorite value bets to win it all, I really like how this team looks when they’re firing on all cylinders. And I think they’re still pretty underrated. With bigs that can shut down high percentage shots and get plenty of their own, great perimeter shooters, and not a lot of ego, the Seminoles are a balanced and well-coached unit. I realize this spot favors the Pittsburgh side. The Panthers are on a 3 game losing streak and at home, while Florida State just had their biggest win of the year against UVA last Monday and they’ve played noticeably worse on the road. That’s also why this number is light. On a neutral floor, the Seminoles would be favored by 10+, meaning this is a buy-low opportunity. Florida State is aware of their vulnerabilities this deep into the season and I think they take care of business Saturday. Take the Seminoles.

Stanford -5 (-110), 2 units: I think this one could get ugly, especially if Washington State star Isaac Bonton sits out another game. If he does play this might be a lighter bet for me, but I still like the Cardinal to cover this number. Stanford is still on the outside looking in on the NCAA Tournament but they have a solid chance of making it if they rack up some wins. While both teams have very solid defenses, nothing should scare you about the Washington State offense. The Cardinal stifle opponents and play with pace that can quickly overwhelm opponents. This is just a good matchup for Stanford, in a spot where they should be supremely motivated. Take the favorite.

Louisville +5.5 (-110), 1 unit: This is a much better spot for North Carolina but I’m going to fade the narrative and go with the Cardinals Saturday. Louisville is coming into this game off a 3 week pause. I hate that for them and I usually hate betting on a team off that sort of layoff. UNC bested Northeastern with ease 3 days ago, a team that faced a very similar situation to Louisville. The Tar Heels will probably win, but I think the Cardinals can keep pace long enough to find momentum and stay in this game. At their worst, Louisville can get trounced. Embarrassing losses to Wisconsin and Florida State put that on full display. But the Cardinals are typically a great defensive unit and at their best, have stifled offenses like Duke and Virginia Tech. If Louisville was overly dependent on their offense I wouldn’t like this angle, but I think they’ll matchup well against the Tar Heels. North Carolina is a bit overrated these days on a nice little stretch where they’ve won 5 of their last 7. If they walk into this game expecting to win, they may be in for a shock. I’m on the dog to bark harder than expected.

Virginia -2 (-115), 2.5 units: Poor Duke keeps finding themselves in these bad spots. The Blue Devils get a home game against big boy UVA towards the end of the big Saturday slate. This line is giving Duke some respect, which I appreciate, but it should keep climbing as we get close to game-time. Jalen Johnson opting out could be a reason for motivation, but it would take a herculean team effort to overcome a UVA team coming off a big loss last week to Florida State. I would hate going against the Cavaliers after such a humbling. I’m taking UVA without refrain, and you should too.