Well I feel pretty lucky that we survived at 2-2 last night after Giannis was a late scratch. But even without last year’s MVP the Bucks cruised past the Pacers. From everything I read and researched, John Wall was not supposed to play Monday so I feel a little betrayed there. It’s really important to try and get the best grasp you can on injuries before every game. No bad beat is worse than losing because of a late-scratch. You may sacrifice a sharper line but at least you avoid that shit. Oh and pro tip: never trust ESPN for an injury report. Okay, I have a bet on every single game tonight– onto today’s picks!
Nuggets -7.5 (-110), 1.5 units: I find no reason to not bet on Denver here. Orlando is in disarray. Aaron Gordon is asking for a trade, they’re 2nd worst in the NBA in points per game and bottom third in defensive efficiency, and they’ve lost 10 of their last 11 games (how they beat Brooklyn the other night, I still don’t understand). Orlando feels like a team on the verge of giving up as their season slips away (which is an angle we’ll want to watch for in the next 2 months before the playoffs). Denver has had blips but they’ve won 8 of their last 10 games, they’re all healthy, and they’re 9-6 ATS as away favorites, which is a pretty impressive record. Orlando is by far the inferior opponent and this line should probably be closer to 9 or 10. I’m on the Nuggets.
Pelicans -6 (-110), 1 unit: Welp, needless to say, this isn’t a great setup for the Lakers. But there won’t be many ideal setups for ol’ LAL in the weeks to come. Without Anthony Davis and now without Lebron James, it’s easy to see how much they struggle. Of course pundits and fans love to discredit the effect Lebron has on a team, but not only does the 6’8″ future hall of famer guide and direct LAL’s offense, he’s led his team in points, assists, AND rebounds up until this point. And they had the 2nd best record in the West… Talk about MVP status; it doesn’t get any more clear than that. But whatever, that’s not what we’re here to talk about. Two losses at Portland aside, the Pelicans seem to be improving. I always complain about how inconsistent New Orleans can be and in my opinion it has to do with pace. They play well in-rhythm, which is probably why they don’t fare well against really methodical teams with good defenses, but if they just maintained a fast tempo I think they’d see a lot more numbers in the win column. Anyway, I don’t think the Pelicans will have any issues tonight. Zion has been dominant and when Ingram is hitting shots, they’re a really tough offensive unit to stop. The Lakers will have to start devising ways to gain some wins without their stars, but the Pelicans are in a great spot. They just beat the mighty Nuggets, they’re at home, and they get 3 days rest before another home game against Denver on Friday. I think the woes continue for LAL here but out of respect for coach Lebron on the sidelines and New Orleans’ volatility, I’ll keep it to one unit.
Knicks -2.5 (-110), 2 units: Defense still matters in the association, at least if you ask the Knicks. The NBA doesn’t like to reward great defensive players. It’s not sexy. Gone are the days of Ewing and Barkley and the ultra-aggressive Pistons who literally had players terrified to drive into their front court. Nope. Now it’s all rainbow shots and flair and even the big men of the NBA play with a flamboyant moxie. Good for them. Julius Randle ain’t having that. The NBA All-Star and spark plug for the NY Knicks is as tough and stout as it gets on defense (and he can shoot, too). I really like this matchup for New York. Look at any of the stats and you’ll see what I mean– the Wizards CANNOT play defense. And despite what some other stats might say, NY has an effective enough offense to keep up with Washington. But will they have to keep up? I don’t think so. NY should slow down the pace and frustrate Washington’s offense all night. The Knicks are coming off a few frustrating losses to elite teams, as tends to be the pattern, but they make a living beating teams like the Wizards. It’s probably why they’ll earn a playoff bid this year and I see them taking advantage of a game that I’m sure they feel they need to win. The Knicks are 6-2 ATS at home as a favorite– count on them going 7-2 tonight.
Suns/Heat under 215.5 (-110), 1 unit: Two more teams that play defense, eh? The Suns are rated #7 and Miami is rated #5 in adjusted defense and doesn’t this just feel like one of those hard-knock, old-school games? I think it’ll be a struggle for either team to find an easy shot all night. Miami should be fired up after blowing 2 straight home games to the Pacers. Indiana is tough but the way they controlled and manipulated the game’s pace was pretty shocking to watch. That’s usually how the Heat prefer to flex. Either way, when Miami is motivated that usually means an even feistier clamp-down defensive effort. The Heat only average 106 ppg, which is among the lowest in the NBA, but they don’t really need to score much more than that. They hold teams to 107.6 ppg and run at one of the slowest paces of any team, which tends to frustrate and throw off even the most effective offenses. Phoenix plays even slower (ranked 27th in the NBA) than Miami and they’re completely healthy coming into this contest. This should be a testy, methodical game and I wouldn’t be surprised if it didn’t hit 200 points. I’ll take a shot at the under.
Blazers -3.5 (-110), 2 units: What on earth happened to Portland two nights ago against Dallas? That was weird. The Blazers, at home, really sank into oblivion in the second half of Sunday’s game. Take a look at the game-flow chart on ESPN and you’ll see what I mean. In a game that should have soared to the over, Lillard was horrible from the field (7/16), which is something you rarely see, and the Blazers somehow only managed to score 15 points in the 3rd quarter and 23 points in the 4th quarter. For those who didn’t major in accounting, that’s a grand total of 38 points in the second half–insert mind blown emoji. Portland is 10th in the league in points per game (114.5) and they rank 6th in adjusted offensive efficiency according to Hollinger’s team stats. In short, we should see some significant differences in tonight’s game against Brooklyn. And I really like the Portland side Tuesday. The Nets will be without Kyrie tonight (and continue to be without Kevin Durant) and tomorrow they have to turn around and face the Western Conference leading Utah Jazz. Not an easy path for Brooklyn. Despite how well the Nets have played, this is a bad spot and situation for the Eastern giant and the Blazers should be plenty more motivated tonight. I’m all over Portland.
Parlay- Sixers win and Game under 217, 1 unit to win 2 units: The line at -3.5 for Philadelphia is a little fishy but I feel comfortable taking the money-line. I’ll make it into a parlay with the under since I really like both angles. There’s a huge disparity in health and talent in this game tonight. Not shockingly, the Golden State offense doesn’t look the same without Steph Curry. James Wiseman was just upgraded to probable, so that’s good news for Golden State, but the front court won’t be a match for an improved Dwight Howard and a fresh Ben Simmons back in the lineup. Philly is on a nice 8-3 ATS run and they’ve won 8 of their last 9 games, mostly without Joel Embiid. It really shows Philly’s depth too; Tobias Harris has stepped up big time and is averaging 24.2 ppg in the last 5 contests. If the Warriors have a chance, it’s with their 6th rated defense (Hollinger Stats), which quietly has played above expectations throughout the season. Draymond, who today declared he’s the best defensive player of all time, is certainly a part of that, but Kerr schemes well and knows how to use Golden State’s bigger bodies. I think this game will be closer than we think, but Philly has the #2 rated defense against a hurt and struggling Warriors offense, not to mention much more capable skill-players. The Sixers have also now won 4 games in a row away from Wells Fargo– so much for not being a good road team. I love this parlay for a light double-unit win.
