What a first round of the NCAA Tournament! Four big bracket busters in Oral Roberts, Ohio, North Texas and Abilene-Christian and a ton of close games gave us an entertaining first round. We’re 8-6 so far in free picks and hey I’ll take it– this year ain’t for the faint of heart! Let’s tackle some Midwest and South region picks for Sunday’s slate!

Loyola-Chicago/Illinois over 134 (-105), 1.5 units: This line may come down a tad so maybe it’s best to wait, but I’ll go with an over here. Illinois is appropriately favored by 7.5 (I’d actually lean the Loyola-Chicago side), which tells me that the books expect Illinois to play with a good 1-3 possession lead throughout this contest. The white-hot Illini are a fast paced team, ranked 79 overall on KenPom in adjusted tempo. As we all should know by now, Sister Jean and the Ramblers rely on and have a gifted defense that showed its merit Friday against a really good offense in Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets were without Moses Wright but GT was flexing a really effective offense leading up to the tournament, so that’s still an impressive feat by Loyola. I think it’s fair to say that Illinois is a different beast, though. Kofi Cockburn and the other stars aren’t sitting out this game and the Illini should push the pace in an effort to overwhelm the Ramblers. Retreating to a more methodical pace would only play into the hands of Loyola. The Ramblers won’t go down easy and I think they stay within distance, pushing this game over the total when the inevitable wave of free throws show up at the finale.

Lean, West Virginia -4 (-115): I’m reminded of a stat I included in my first round of Midwest picks on Friday: According to ESPN, the Mountaineers are 13-0 when they hold opposing teams to 71 points or fewer and 5-9 when opponents exceed 71 points. Hmm, can they prevent the surging Orangemen from getting to that mark today? I’m not so sure. It’s hard not to be impressed by what Syracuse has done lately. They dropped 78 on a very good San Diego St. defense and not including a loss against UVA in the ACC Tourney, the Orangemen have averaged 76 ppg in their last five contests. West Virginia has a spectacular offense but they’re not all that intimidating on defense. Syracuse got the tougher draw in the first round against San Diego St., whereas this is a decent step up in class for West Virginia. If Miles McBride has another big game for the Mountaineers, I think it’ll be night night for Syracuse, but that’s a big “if.” In the end, I think West Virginia is a the better all around team and they’re more battle-tested coming out of a very good Big-12 Conference. Also, Syracuse shot a ridiculous 55% from the field AND from the 3-point line in their first round game, as well as 85% from the FT line. That won’t happen again. I’ll lean to the WV side but a 4 point line feels about right. If the total was around 140 or so, I’d lock down an over but that’s sitting at 147 and it’s hard to dispute.

Rutgers +8 (-115), 1.5 units: Sure, the Cougars could blow out the Scarlet Knights here and everyone would sarcastically say “wowww, what an unpredictable outcome,” but if Rutgers presents like the Memphis Tigers today, and I think they will, then Houston “we may have a problem.” Like the Tigers, Rutgers has an exceptional defense and plays at a slow pace. The Scarlet Knights rank in the top-25 in three of our four major defensive field goal categories on Haslametrics; shot opportunities won’t come easy for the Cougars. Rutgers also won’t be intimidated by Houston. They’re playing in their first tournament in 30 years and coming off an impressive .500 record in the hyper-talented Big 10 Conference against teams like Iowa and Michigan and Illinois (i.e., the best teams in college basketball). Houston has had an incredible season in the American Athletic Conference and deserves to be favored, but not by this much. This is the first time all year that the Cougars will see this level of competition, in my opinion. Is Rutgers elite? Probably not, but they are as gritty and battle-tested as it gets. I’ll take the Scarlet Knights to cover.

Villanova -5.5 (-110), 1 unit: (queue the screeching noise) Pump on the breaks there, North Texas. The Mean Green of North Texas got a really impressive win over Purdue on Friday and they deserve to celebrate. And I bet they did. And while I don’t think the Big East is all that impressive this year, Villanova won’t make the same mistakes as Purdue. The Boilermakers didn’t look ready for the Tournament. North Texas controlled the pace of the game Friday, staying ahead for the majority of the game and hitting at a high percentage from the field and beyond the arc. Villanova looked like, well, Villanova. Public and bracket-busting-favorite Winthrop came into Friday’s matchup full of hopes and dreams, but it was Villanova who looked like a professional and elite team, just going about business as usual. The Wildcats forced a ton of high percentage shots with great play at the rim and then locked down on defense, holding the high-octane Winthrop offense to only 63 points and 36% from the field. The Wildcats only committed 6 turnovers all game and were extremely efficient on offense. It’s why I like Villanova, even without Gillespie, to go further than people think. Coach Jay Wright is as buttoned up and cerebral as any coach in the nation and has a knack for preparing his boys to play well through chaos. I think Villanova punks a good North Texas team today.

Oklahoma State -6 (-110), 2 units: Okay yea, maybe I’m overlooking something here (I don’t think I am), but this is way too much respect for Oregon State. The Beavers have surged to end the season and as winners of the Pac-12 Conference, they deserve some respect. I just don’t think the Pac-12 is very good. Oregon State’s win against Tennessee was more about Tennessee– the Volunteers have been a volatile team all year and really underperform at times. Liberty is a really good sleeper team and the Cowboys easily overcame a nice game from the Flames, even without Cade Cunningham doing much of anything in the first half. Nerves get the best of us, even if you’re a future NBA guard, but I don’t like the prospect of a reawakened Cade Cunningham for the Beavers in this late matchup on Sunday. One of the better angles you can look to wager on in a postseason environment is to bet on the teams with the best player on the court. Oregon State has a decent offense and average defense; the latter should cause huge issues here Sunday. The Cowboys are one of the hottest teams in the country and I only like them better after surviving their first contest against Liberty. They play at a very fast pace (32nd in the nation in tempo) and their defense has seen much better than Oregon State. Second game in, nerves aside, I think the Cowboys ROLL the Beavers at Hinkle Fieldhouse.

This is the second of two articles on the first round of the NCAA Tourney’s East Bracket, which will play out all day Saturday. Check out part I here. I was 6-2 yesterday in March Madness free picks here at TheOddsBreakers — let’s keep WINNING!

Alabama -16 (-115), 1.5 units: The Alabama Crimson Tide and the Iona Gaels are primed and ready for the late-games on Saturday for the East Bracket of the NCAA Tournament. Both enter this contest winners of 6 straight and the champions of their respective conferences. Most of us think of the Crimson Tide as strictly juggernauts on Saturdays in the Fall, but their basketball team is no slouch, either. This is the 22nd NCAA Tournament appearance for Bama and they’re hungry for their first ever national title. Second-year coach Nate Oats has brought flare and a high-octane offensive scheme to the school’s program. Four Crimson Tide players score in the double digits, the team averages 80 ppg, and they thrive as one of the fastest tempo-teams in the country, capitalizing often from quick points off breakaway steals (they rank #5 nationally on Haslametrics in this category). But people forget how good Bama is on defense, too. Menacing against the three ball and ranked #2 overall on KenPom in adjusted defense, the Crimson Tide ranks in the top-50 in three of our four primary defensive field goal categories (on Haslametrics). The boys are buzzin’ in Tuscaloosa and hoping this is the year they win it all. But can Iona shock the world and become the next bracket-busting Oral Roberts? Probably not. As much respect as we have for Rick Pitino, who recently said that his stint at Iona will be his last coaching gig (so he’s there to stay), the Gaels are not in the same stratosphere as Alabama. Ranked #184 on KenPom and #178 on Haslametrics, Iona relies on their defense to overcome their foes in the MAAC. They were extremely effective in their conference tournament, allowing only 53.8 ppg. As impressive as that is, this is a huge step up in class on Saturday for the Gaels. The one game worth noting where Iona faced a non-conference opponent this year? Seton Hall– and the Gaels were blown out by 22 points. It’s Pitino’s first year in the program and Iona has dealt with a ton of adversity this year, including a long COVID layoff smack-dab in the middle of the season. It’s reasonable to assume that they’re already happy with their accomplishments. Bama is not. Alabama has all the drive and motivation to show up big in their first tournament game. My money will go on the Crimson Tide to out-perform and overwhelm the respectable Gaels.

MD/UConn under 130 (-110), 2 units: This is a really interesting game. The unpredictable and full-of-potential Maryland Terps made it to the NCAA Tournament thanks to many impressive Big 10 wins throughout the season. UConn, nearly the Big East champions, also earned a right to the tournament due to great in-season play and wins without their star James Bouknight. With Bouknight getting a full week of rest after some cramping issues in the conference tourney, he should be refreshed and ready to roll Saturday. The sophomore guard has elite athleticism and shooting ability, not to mention natural confidence and leadership intangibles. in his most recent outing, where he still scored 14 points and snagged 8 rebounds, Bouknight said he played his worst game ever. The future NBA guard isn’t easily satisfied and the Huskies run off the same energy. Throughout January and into February the Huskies played without Bouknight and showed some real grit and toughness, edging out Big East rivals like Xavier, Providence, and Seton Hall. Haslametrics ranks UConn as one of the best teams in the country with the 18th best offense, 15th best defense (9th overall). They’re also relentless at the rim. Ranked #5 in the nation on Haslametrics in point-potential from offensive rebounds, the Huskies are more than apt at securing missed shots and capitalizing on opportunities. But the Terps won’t be afraid of Bouknight or UConn’s abilities in the front court. After all, Maryland plays in the most frightening conference in the country, where big boys like Luka Garza, Kofi Cockburn and Hunter Dickinson prowl and dominate at the rim. Led by Baltimore’s Darryl Morsell, the Big 10 Defensive Player of the Year, the Terps are ranked #1 in preventing mid-range shots and #2 in stifling near proximity opportunities on Haslametrics. Only allowing 65 ppg and flexing their defense in games this year in wins against teams like Michigan State, Rutgers and Purdue (all teams which that probably have similar offensive talent to the Huskies), Maryland will be prove testy at the rim and I think highly competitive throughout this contest. Because of the prowess of both defenses and the nerves of postseason play, I like this game to fly under. I’d lean UConn -3.

Lean, UCLA +4 (-110): It’s not easy being BYU. The Cougars are an elite team in the NCAA’s West Coach Conference. The only problem? Gonzaga is in there, too. It’s hard to get a grasp on how good of a team BYU is. They win and usually beat up on inferior conference opponents but they always get hammered down and humbled by the Bulldogs. That has to be frustrating. They didn’t face anyone of real value to note in non-conference play, either, so we’re left with their 18-9 above-average record to evaluate. KenPom ranks BYU as a very solid all around team– 27th in adjusted offense and 26th in adjusted defense. Haslametrics ranks the Cougars even higher on defense in several noteworthy categories such as FG percentage allowed (7th), potential quick points from offensive rebounds (3rd), and near-proximity FG percentage (1st). That’s all very impressive, but I worry that UCLA matches up really well against the 6th seed. UCLA is particularly skilled in their mid-range game. Ranking 18th on KenPom and 29th overall in adjusted offense on Haslametrics, the Bruins are top 20 in all mid-range shooting categories (FG percentage, percentage of shots, and attempts vs the average opponent). Running a slow-paced, methodical offense, UCLA has thrives in taking care of the basketball. Ranked 46th in Division 1 basketball in turnovers committed per game (AthlonSports), the Bruins can be an annoying unit to face for 40 minutes. We saw that plain as day in their First Four matchup against the Spartans. Michigan State led by as many as 14 points in that game, but the Bruins kept chipping and chipping away. By committing less fouls and turnovers and with high percentage shooting, UCLA out-lasted Michigan State and earned their way into the tournament. I’m not sure just how good BYU is and a smart team with good shooting like UCLA could be a problem Saturday. Only a lean for me, but I’d go Bruins.

Texas -8.5 (-110), 1 unit: Look out, the Texas Longhorns are surging at the right time. Winners of now 6 in a row and a Big 12 title to show for it, Texas is a very formidable tournament team who presents one of the more well-balanced units in the country. Entering March Madness at 24th overall on KenPom and 25th overall on Haslametrics, it’s hard to find a real flaw in the Longhorns. Okay, they’re not the BEST in their mid-range game (coincidentally they’re not great at mid-range defense either). They allow too many 3 pointers and foul a little too often, too. Fine. But overall, Texas is an extremely effective team on both ends of the floor when they play up to their potential. Edging out Big-12 titans like Oklahoma State and West Virginia and Texas Tech in the regular season is no easy feat, but that’s exactly what they did. One has to assume Texas is entering the tourney with a little chip on their collective shoulders, too. The Longhorns have lost their last four tournament games. Time for a little redemption. Led by guard Andrew Jones, who averages nearly 14.9 ppg and shoots 42% from the field and 80% from the FT line, the Longhorns have a knack for driving on their opponents and stacking up points from the charity stripe. They’re top 4 scorers are hitting at least 70.8% from the line– not a good outlook for an Abilene-Christian team who ranks near the bottom of the nation in free throw attempts allowed (Haslametrics). Abilene-Christian does a fantastic job at preventing shots from the field, however, ranked #2 in the nation on Haslametrics in that category. The Wildcats rely on their defense to beat opponents in the Southland Conference, something they showcased in their 79-45 beat-down of Nicholls in the title game. The Wildcats also have a decent offense with 3 players who average in the double-digits. In their non-conference play, Abilene-Christian hung with Texas Tech in a close defeat. I’m actually pretty impressed by that. The Wildcats are, by no means, a team to sleep on. That being said, Texas has too much steam and too much overall talent to be dethroned on Saturday. This is a one unit play out of respect for Abilene-Christian’s consistency in the Southland Conference and as the 32nd ranked overall defense on KenPom, but I think Texas covers by double digits. Hook em horns!

This is part I of my breakdown of Saturday’s East Bracket games! Check out Part II here. Happy Madness, everyone!

Georgetown +6.5 (-110), 2 units: Georgetown and Colorado travel to Indianapolis Saturday to faceoff in the first East Region game in the NCAA Tournament. This is an interesting showdown for several reasons. I’ve followed the Hoyas closer than most teams at the end of the regular season and boy was it a treat. The big boys from DC play hard for coach Patrick Ewing, though it’s unsurprising to see the NBA Hall of Famer thriving as the Hoyas’ leader. Ewing has the same swagger and moxie that he did on the hardwood, but you can tell he’s a “player’s coach” too. His front court studs exude the same tenacity as he did many moons ago for the same team. Georgetown’s guards and bigs can rebound, defend, and routinely get to the foul line, an area where they own one of the best shooting percentages in the nation. Finishing their season winning 6 of their last 8 games, including quality wins against Villanova, Seton Hall, Creighton, and Xavier, the Hoyas were crowned the Big East champions and they’re hardly a team anyone wants to face in the first round. Colorado has no choice, but the Buffaloes are favored in this contest for a reason. Haslametrics rates Colorado as #13 overall in the nation. They run a highly efficient offense and aggressive defense while operating at a molasses-like tempo that frustrates most of their opponents. Ranking 4th overall in the nation in free throw percentage, they, like the Hoyas, also tend to land behind the charity stripe in an effort to outlast their foes. My only issue is the conference they play for. Sure, Colorado thrived among conference opponents, winning 14 of their 20 Pac-12 games. They also very nearly won the conference title. But I can’t say I was blown away by their non-conference play. They beat up on lowly teams to start the season, a stretch of games where their opponents ranked 180th, and in their one game against a formidable opponent in Tennessee they were soundly beaten. After seeing the Volunteers take a big L to Oregon State in the first round Friday, that loss looks even worse. The Big East isn’t what it used to be either, but I’ll take a motivated, humming, Ewing-led Georgetown squad laying points any day against a Pac 12 elite.

Florida State -10.5 (-110), 1 unit: Alright, time to wake up Seminoles. Florida State takes on UNC Greensboro in the first round of madness and I think they’ll outclass the Spartans early in this one. Look at a first half bet, too. Here’s why: Florida State has been one of the more frustrating teams to bet this year (trust me, I know). Bewildering losses to teams like Notre Dame and UCF and twice to Georgia Tech had a lot of us scratching our heads. THIS is the team that so many think can get into the Final 4? Well, yes. Florida State has their flaws. They turn the ball over too much and they’re not great away from home (unfortunately they’ll be away from home for the entire tournament, in case you’re unaware). According to Haslametrics, Florida State is ranked in the top-25 in three of our four major field goal categories. They’re also incredibly effective at second-chance scoring opportunities via offensive rebounds. And regardless of their up and down play, they’re clearly one of the most talented teams in the country. Stacked with bigs and precision shooters, they’ll be too much for most teams in the tournament. UNC Greensboro is a formidable opponent in the Southern Conference, but they’ve only faced one team who made it to the postseason. Florida State has faced 9. I’m worried about the Spartans defense in this one. Ranked #66 overall on Haslametrics, they do a few things well. They’re aggressive and try to force turnovers, often playing a full or half-court press. But if that’s the strength they depend on, it won’t phase the Seminoles. Florida State is one of only four teams that presses harder than UNCG. They’re also ranked in the 88th percentile (according to Synergy) in transition defense. They’re also (also) shooting 39% from beyond the arc this year, which is top 10 in the nation. I’m happy for the Spartans that they’re in the tournament; I’m not happy for them in this matchup. The Seminoles should overwhelm the lesser foe and march on to round 2.

St. Bonaventure/LSU under 144.5 (-110), 1.5 units: The Bonnies may have one of the best names in the nation, I’ll give em that, but I’m not into it enough to bet on them Saturday. I also haven’t fallen in love with LSU. To me the best bet is an under-play. This line is set at -1.5 in LSU’s favor, which is virtually a pick-em, yet the total is set at a line more akin to what an SEC game features– aka a ton of offense. That feels off to me. Ranked 11th overall in adjusted defense on Haslametrics, the Bonnies are #1 in the country in field goal percentage allowed. They’re also top 10 in a host of other defensive categories like mid-range FG percentage and close proximity shot defense. And I know what you’re thinking- Who cares Chris?! St. Bonaventure plays in the Atlantic 10 Conference where the best team they’ve beaten is VCU. LSU will overwhelm the Bonnies with their electric offense, Chris. Don’t be an idiot, Chris. Chris! Okay, you may be right. But how impressed are you by the SEC? Sure, Alabama and Florida and Arkansas have had some impressive runs and there’s a ton of scoring down south, but I think the Bonnies might be able to hang. St. Bonaventure knows that in order to rival the prolific offense that LSU relies on, the Bonnies need to slow down the game’s pace. St. Bonaventure’s runs at a tempo that’s 319th in the country; in other words, one of the slowest. And I like this angle even more because, while LSU is ranked 11th in adjusted offense on Haslametrics, they’re a below-average 126th in adjusted defense. The Bonnies should be able to control the game when they’re on offense with calculated, assist-driven basketball. At 32nd on Haslametrics in adjusted offense, they’re no slouches in that area either. I can’t pick LSU because they’re too volatile and their defense isn’t up to par. I can’t pick the Bonnies because I don’t trust an Atlantic-10 team against a superb offense for 40 minutes. But I can bet the under here, and I like it.

Lean, Michigan -25.5 (-110): This is probably the least-interesting game I’ll cover in the first round of this bracket, so just a lean here for me. And forgive me but, it’s hard to invest too much time into this game– there’s not too much mystery here. March hasn’t been too kind to the Wolverines, but things may take a turn now that we’re into the madness. Regardless of any hot take or sharp angle, it’s not debatable that Michigan is one of the best teams in the country. They’re the elite of the most elite conference and they’ve been as consistently dominant as any team, even if their in-state foe handed them a rare loss and even though Illinois and Ohio State bested them at the end of the year. If anything, that could work wonders for the Wolverines. A team like Gonzaga has a ton of pressure to win it all. They’re undefeated and virtually untouched entering the tournament. The Wolverines had a few down moments at the end of the regular season but they got that out of the way. In a college basketball world with COVID and now playing inside the Indianapolis bubble, it feels like getting through some adversity is always a good thing. In short, I expect Michigan to fire on all cylinders and have their way with Texas Southern. The Texas Southern Tigers finagled their way into bracketology with a nice win over Mount St. Mary’s in the First Four. They’re already winners. Unfortunately, the Tigers only have one win, ONE, against a team in KenPom’s top 220. Yowza. Credit to SportsBettingDime for that factoid. Although they play at a lightning pace, they’re not efficient on either end of the floor, ranking 268th on offense and 230th on defense according to Haslametrics. Things don’t look good for the Tigers here. And a fast-paced team only plays into the hands of an elite team like Michigan, whose talent and discipline will force the Tigers into mistakes early and often. Don’t bet the Texas Southern side but if you feel intrigued, look at Michigan and swallow the points.