Well the Nets played their ass off last night, taking us to 1-1 instead of 2-0 overall on the night. They were particularly impressive on defense. If Brooklyn can play like that in the postseason (they won’t), they’ll be a real force. I knew I should have bet the Heat, too. Ah well. Let’s cruise to more wins tonight, shall we? Here are Friday’s picks!

Warriors -4 (-115), 2 units: Steph Curry is coming off a rare poor shooting performance from beyond the arc against the Heat, shooting only 25% from distance (5 out of 20). Meanwhile, the Magic got a rare win against the up and down Knicks. This feels like a fantastic spot for Steph to put on a show. The line is low, which gives me pause, but I can’t figure out a reason why I wouldn’t love the Warriors side tonight. It is the beginning of a 4-game road trip, but Golden State has been very consistent this year, no matter the situation. The Warriors are quietly playing fantastic defense, rated top 5 in the NBA in defensive efficiency. Contributions from Wiggins, Oubre Jr. and Bazemore have meant an improving and increasingly dangerous Warriors team on offense, too. Even if Draymond doesn’t play– he’s questionable today with a right ankle injury– I don’t think it’ll matter. The Warriors should be able to impose their will on Orlando tonight. I think they win by 10.

Grizzlies -4.5 (-110), 1.5 units: The Grizzlies are healthier than normal and considering how beat up they’ve been, that’s significant. I expect Memphis to look more consistent on the offensive side of the ball with Grayson Allen, Ja Morant and Jonas Valanciunas back in the rotation. Their performance against the Thunder 2 nights ago is a good indication of how solid they could look in the coming months. Hopefully they’re not looking over their shoulders as the surging Suns loom tomorrow night, but they are at home and this is a good matchup for them. The ultra-inconsistent Pistons are on the 2nd leg of a 5-game road stretch. Jerami Grant put on a stellar performance against Chicago 2 nights ago but Detroit still came up short. What will it take for the Pistons to compete and win again a team as well-balanced as Memphis? I think Ja Morant flexes tonight and the Grizzlies take care of business. If this was a 5 or 6 point line I may pause, but 4.5 seems light considering how a healthy Grizzlies team can perform. Bet on Memphis.

Bulls/76ers over 228.5 (-110), 1 unit: The legend of Zach LaVine is starting to grow. The Bulls’ young star is an explosive force on offense and Chicago’s clear leader. A city that’s fallen off the map since Jordan left, the Bulls are bordering on relevance again and it’s games like this where they take steps to get there. The 76ers have been struggling lately but they’ve been plagued by injuries and bad spots. This is a show-case Eastern Conference game on ESPN, a perfect setup for these teams to light up the scoreboard. Although Philadelphia has a top 10 defense, LaVine and the Bulls have been one of the highest scoring teams in the NBA, averaging nearly 115 ppg. They push the pace and can score in bunches. The Sixers are right there with the Bulls in output and they play better and they’re far more effective scoring at home. LaVine will look to prove that he’s a superstar, Ben Simmons is probable after a bout with the stomach flu, and Joel Embiid is due for a breakout game. This over should easily hit. If it starts slow, look to live bet the over as the line drops.

Bucks -10.5 (-110), 1 unit: This is a good spot for the Bucks to get back in the win column and do so with authority. There’s a ridiculous stat out there about Milwaukee at home after a loss. Apologies for not having the exact information here in front of me but, in short, they usually blow teams out in games at those scenarios, regardless of the opponent. They didn’t live up to that record after that ass-kicking last night by Toronto but we saw that one coming. The Thunder don’t have the firepower or defense to slow down Milwaukee like the Raptors did. I love this spot for a big Bucks win. I’ll only go 1 unit because they’ve been such a tough watch these days. Take care of business, Giannis!

Clippers +5 (-110), 1 unit: Maybe I’m an idiot (probably) for not taking the Jazz. They’re on an insane ATS run right now and I should probably just jump on the bandwagon and fatten up my wallet. The thing is– this is a premiere spot for the Clippers. Everything I read tells me LAC is putting all-hands on deck for this matchup. Paul George and Kawhi Leonard have been upgraded to questionable, usually a sign that they’ll play. Two nights ago the Jazz clobbered the Clippers, albeit without George and Leonard, but now here’s a chance for LAC to redeem themselves with their stars back, at home, in an ideal revenge spot. These are the situations bettors dream of. I gotta take LAC. God help me.

Well if you follow me on twitter (@ChrisRFarley1), you’ve seen my recap of last night’s game and all the bad beats we experienced. Philly, Minnesota, Miami– all in fantastic spots heading into game’s end, only to blow it and let their opponents cover. That puts me at 4-5 in NBA betting for the week, which may be my first losing record in 2-3 weeks. Never too deflated to find opportunity, let’s move onto Thursday’s picks!

Raptors +6 (-115), 1.5 units: ESPN has a front-page headline that reads, “This may be the scariest team in the East.” Who are they talking about? The Bucks? The Sixers? Oh, definitely the Nets, right? No sir– they’re referring to the Tampa Bay/Toronto Raptors, and I can’t disagree with that assessment. The Raptors may be the most resilient team in the NBA and it’s because of how they play team basketball. In a league of star-driven talent, where big name players wield control over their franchises, Nick Nurse feels like one of the only coaches that still has a real impact on his squad on a night-to-night basis. It’s no surprise then that Toronto, who has relocated to Tampa for the season, has no problem competing with the best teams in the Eastern Conference and at times they play even better when they’re missing a key player. Kyle Lowry injured his ankle 2 nights ago and he’s questionable tonight, but does it matter if it doesn’t play? The Raptors are 3-0 without him this year, 5-0 if you count the games where he left early. It’s a true next man up mentality. Toronto plays with a toughness the Bucks can only dream of. My first thought on this game was to side with Milwaukee in a revenge spot, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they won, but how can I not take the Raptors getting 6 points? The Bucks are on a 4-game slide and while it’s been against elite teams, they have real problems in pressure situations. Khris Middleton is not clutch, Giannis isn’t a pure shooter, and other contributors like Donte DiVincenzio and Jrue Holiday are too inconsistent. It’s the kind of thing that separates the big boys and playoff contenders from the pretenders. Take the Raptors to cover, and don’t be surprised if they eek out another win.

Lean- Miami -1 (-110): For all the same reasons as yesterday’s game against the Warriors, a game where the Heat absolutely should have won, I would think Miami can at least get a W tonight against an inferior Sacramento team. This is a killer road spot for Miami, but like I said before I don’t think it affects them as much as most teams. The Kings have lost 4 straight at home. The Heat are much better than their record shows and they need to get off the schneid. Step up, Miami!

Lakers -2.5 (-110), 1.5 units: Oh Lebron loves these spots and I love watching it. No one would be surprised if the ultra-talented Nets came into the Staples Center and knocked off LAL. Pure talent wise, it’s no denying what Brooklyn brings to the table. And that’s where we so often make a mistake in analyzing games. Guess who else has the best sheer talent? Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Judge, Patrick Mahomes, Giannis Antetokounmpo, James Harden… I could go on and on. The Lakers have something that wins championships, just ask Brady, and that’s an incomparable leader in Lebron James. No one controls and adjusts during a game and no one facilitates and guides a team better than Lebron. In isolation, the Lakers can lose these games from time to time, but more often than not, they win. Kyrie Irving and James Harden will surely be pumped and primed up for this game against LAL. Even without Durant, I expect each of the Nets’ stars to put forth maximum effort. The difference tonight will be on defense. While Brooklyn struggles to stop anyone, which obviously doesn’t bode well against a Lakers team that’s top 10 in FG percentage and rebounding and owns the 3rd best point differential in the NBA, the Lakers are the #1 team in defensive efficiency and 2nd only to the Knicks in points allowed. Court-general Lebron will show up tonight; Kyrie and Harden are scorers, not generals. Good luck, Brooklyn.

A solid 1-1 day last night and I knew I should have put a few units on Boston; that was an ideal spot! But 2 days in and I’m 3-1 and I can’t be unhappy about it. Onto Hump Day!

Celtics -2 (-110), 1.5 units: Can Boston win two in a row and finally gain a little positive momentum here? I think so. The Celtics are 8-3 ATS at home and Atlanta, while the more rested and desperate team, is still nursing a ton of injuries. I think Boston will still play with determined desperation, too. Last night’s win against Denver was what they needed but it was expected; the Nuggets had a ton of players resting and they were coming off a huge win on Sunday. This contest will test the Celtics a little, but I doubt they’ll let their guard down just because they won a single game. They’re a considerably better team on both sides of the ball and they’re solid at home– bet on Boston.

76ers -10.5 (-110), 1.5 units: This is another bad situation for the Rockets and it doesn’t get much better for Philadelphia. Eric Gordon and Victor Oladipo are doubtful tonight; PJ Tucker is questionable. Meanwhile Joel Embiid looks like he’ll be suiting up for Philly. Coming off 3 straight losses to hot teams (Phoenix, Portland, and Utah), Philadelphia gets a great matchup tonight against the fledgling Rockets, who have now lost 6 straight and don’t seem to have an answer. I really like the Rockets and kept playing on them expecting some positive regression; it just never happened. Their recent loss against Washington was about as deflating as it gets. Philly is 9-4 ATS at the Wells Fargo Center, which is more bad news for Houston. Their offense is also one of the most efficient in the NBA. With so many scorers and defenders injured for Houston, Philly should completely out-pace their opponent tonight. The only side to look at here is Philly.

Timberwolves +5 (-110), 1 unit: The Timberwolves remind me a lot of the Bulls. They like to play with pace, they’re significantly more gifted on the offensive side of the ball, and they have big men who can run the court and get easy baskets. Chicago took Indiana to OT two nights ago and ended up winning by 8 points. While I’m not sure if the Timberwolves will win tonight, they should make this a game. The Pacers are one of the most solid units in the NBA, with slightly above average defense and efficient offense. They don’t exactly light up the scoreboard, though. Teams like Minnesota can be a problem for that reason. Karl-Anthony Towns is still finding his mojo but he’s only going to get better as the season progresses. Minnesota is in the middle of a home stretch and while they’re still without D’Angelo Russel, they’re still much healthier than Indiana. The Pacers continue to play without TJ Warren, Caris LeVert, Cassius Winston and two other bench warmers, which affects how deep their roster is. Minnesota is fresh off a loss last night to a Lakers team looking for revenge where they were mostly competitive, but they’ll be much less overwhelmed tonight. I’ll take the T-Wolves to cover.

Blazers/Pelicans over 236.5 (-105), 2.5 units: Probably my squarest pick tonight but who cares– this number is still far too low. The Blazers offense was electric once again last night and despite a little dip in output midway through the 4th quarter, Damian Lillard and company instantly turned on the jets and finished with an 11 point win. That was a 16 point turnaround in 4 minutes to close out the game. Meanwhile, Zion and the Pelicans have looked abysmal on offense but that won’t matter if Zion is playing the kind of basketball he has lately. The 2nd year star has been dominant at the rim, virtually unstoppable, and he can turn the tide of a game quick. I think this could be one of the better games to watch all year. I expect a back and forth battle of who can score more and while that makes it tough to choose a side, I absolutely love the over.

Heat win (-105), 1.5 units: Even though the Heat are smack dab in the middle of a SEVEN game road tour, I like this spot. Miami has lost two straight but they lost against elite opponents: the Clippers and red-hot Jazz. Before that, them boys from South Florida were riding a 4-game winning streak and starting to look like the Eastern Conference Champions we remember from the bubble. Excluding the Lakers, the Heat have true mental toughness and I don’t think this spot intimidates them one bit. They may actually love it. The Warriors will struggle against Bam Adebayo’s ability to clean up at the rim and rebound, which I think could also mean a frustrated Draymond Green. Are there any wagers on the odds of Draymond getting another technical? I think it’s more than possible. The Heat also like to slow down the pace and methodically control games. The Warriors feed off of Steph Curry’s elite shooting and rhythm, but Steph may not get as many chances tonight against Jimmy Butler. The absence of Looney and Wiseman won’t help, either. Take the Heat at a discounted price.

A very solid start to our free NBA betting picks as I went 2-0 last night! I don’t know if I’ve ever had an undefeated week but, who’s to say it can’t happen? I don’t love today’s NBA card so pardon my conservative approach for Tuesday. Here are my picks:

Lean- Celtics -2.5 (-110): This game sets up really well for Boston. Denver is sitting out a ton of players, including Paul Millsap, while the Celtics are in bad need of a redemptive win. The Celtics are 6-4 at home, they’ve lost 4 out of their last 5, they’re considerably healthier than Denver tonight, and while they’ll still have to contend with Nikola Jokic, who’s playing at an MVP level right now, the Nuggets could easily blow this game off after a huge win against LAL. With the way Boston’s been playing they’re tough to bet on, but the spot doesn’t get much better.

Lakers/T-Wolves over 223 (-110), 1.5 units: This total feels too low. The Lakers limp a little heading into Tuesday night after a humbling loss against Denver Sunday. We saw that coming. Unfortunately Anthony Davis will be out a few weeks, so the Lakers bigs will have to contend with Karl-Anthony Towns, who may be finding his groove after a long layoff from injury. Minnesota finally snapped their losing streak on Sunday, giving them some confidence heading into Tuesday night’s matchup. The Timberwolves haven’t been very effective offensively this year but they have looked a lot better since Towns returned, averaging over 116 ppg in their last 5 games. Lebron James will look to expose Minnesota’s poor defense, a unit that ranks in the bottom third of the league in Hollinger’s efficiency rating (ESPN), by pushing fast break points with his quarterback-like passing. He’ll need to do that to fill the offensive-gap that Davis leaves behind. That should pump up the pace of the game and force Minnesota to play catchup. Since the T-Wolves offense has been more effective lately, I see that resulting in an easy over.

Blazers -5 (-110), 2 units: Well I figured the Blazers were due for some positive regression but I didn’t think they would look this good. Damien Lillard is playing like a mad-man lately and what do you know– Portland can even play a little defense when they feel like it. The Blazers aren’t a true contender when it gets to the postseason but they can routinely win and obliterate bad opponents. The Thunder are riding lightning (love me a good thunderstorm, another thing I miss during the dead of winter) into this contest and may still be high off that win again Milwaukee on Sunday. Trust me, though, that was an aberration. The Thunder shot 47% from the field and 42% from 3 point land in that game, a real feat without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Shai leads his team this year in assists and points but he’ll will be out again on Tuesday. That’s bad news for OKC, especially considering their next best scorer is Al Horford. The Thunder won’t have the juice to keep up with the scorching hot Blazers offense. Ride “Dame Time” and take Portland to cover.