15-10 this past week betting the association, making me 28-17 overall the last 2 weeks (60%). Wish I could say I put $10,000 on every wager. Onto my President’s Day picks!
Knicks win (+105), 1.5 units: Two teams going in opposite directions face off Monday night as the Hawks travel to MSG without Rondo and a long list of other key players still out. The Knicks defense is excellent and they’re proving that every time they hit the hardwood. The Hawks are favored because the books know Trae Young is due for a breakout game and the Hawks need to get off the schneid. While the Knicks aren’t great offensively, they excel at slowing down the pace of the game and forcing their opponent to reorient to their style of play. The Hawks are struggling and like Houston realized, the Knicks aren’t the team to face if you’re trying to turn your team around. Atlanta also has a double-header looming at Boston against a Celtics team desperate for a win. New York is well rested and in a better spot, take the Knicks.
76ers +7.5 (-110) * Only if Embiid plays, 1.5 units: This is a fantastic sell-high spot on the Jazz. The NBA’s best team since January has been cruising, stacking up one big win after another, and some that have been rather improbable (what a spot that was for Miami Saturday, and yet the Jazz still won handedly, and covered). Joel Embiid is nursing back soreness, what else is new, and he’s officially listed as questionable tonight. I think he’ll play since Philadelphia had a day in between games to rest and lord knows this is a big matchup. You won’t see a line like this on the 76ers all year. The Jazz should be favored and the line is probably right, but the right move is to play the number and take the Sixers. We may see another juggernaut performance from Utah, but playing numbers like this will win for you in the long term. Philadelphia has lost 2 in a row and should be very motivated to pull out a win tonight.
Nets -4.5 (-105), 1 unit: Kevin Durant will sit out for 2 games with a mild hamstring injury as the Nets visit Sacramento tonight, hoping to win 3 straight. The Kings have one of the worst defenses in the league, submitting a whopping 118.7 ppg to their opponents and ranking dead last in defensive efficiency. That’s a pretty ideal matchup for the Nets, who lead the league scoring nearly 121 ppg and are 3rd in the NBA in offensive efficiency. Marvin Bagley III and De’Aaron Fox may not play tonight and if they do it won’t be at 100%. DeAndre Jordan should be back for Brooklyn, which gives them some front court help on defense and rebounding. Sacramento just isn’t ready for this level of talent, so I’m on the Nets for a cautious 1 unit because, well, it is the Nets.
This handicap here is actually pretty simple to me. Michigan is a better team than Wisconsin and it showed when Michigan wiped the floor with the Badgers by 23 points back in mid January. The obvious thing to me in this situation is that Michigan is coming off of a 21 day Covid pause where strangely nobody on the team actually had Covid. The decision to quarantine was a political decision handed down to them by the school claiming precautionary reasons. Anyways, the Wolverines just had their first practice on Wednesday and they have some time to prepare against a good Wisconsin team. Now Wisconsin is probably still feeling that massing butt-kicking from January 12th and I expect the Badgers to come out firing. The Badgers are a very good home team shooting 46% as whole and 40.9% from 3 point land. Another thing that I look at is how these teams perform away from home compared to their overall season. According to Haslemetrics, Michigan is the 3rd worst team away from home in the NCAA. Due to the motivation, home road stats, and the basketball pause, I trust Wisconsin to play well enough to win at least the first hald and that is where I trust them the most in this spot.
Wisconsin 1st half PK – 1.5 star
Nebraska vs Penn State -11 O/U 144
These are the fastest playing 2 teams in all of the big 10. Both of them are coming off of some close losses with Nebraska taking Illinois to overtime and Penn State missing the winning shot in East Lansing. Being that Nebraska is coming off short rest, I would normally fade them if this wasn’t such a large spread. Instead I think that this is a spot where defense will be left at home. Also, if Nebraska can keep this game close enough, we might get some foul city at the end. My number in this game is 148.
Just like my NBA article, this article will contain less verbiage to accommodate my schedule today. It’s been a tough week betting college hoops. These kids are volatile. Take UConn for example, who ghosted all of us against Providence and then put in a Villanova-like performance against Xavier yesterday :: face palm :: What can ya do? Onto today’s picks!
Hofstra/JMU over 152 (-110), 1.5 units: Yesterday’s game showed us what a matchup between these two squads is like and I don’t see why anything would change today. Effective offenses, porous defenses. Expect this to soar over the total once more.
Drake +6 (-110), 2 units: Lightning struck Saturday as Loyola Chicago completely annihilated Drake. That was an embarrassing let-down performance by the Bulldogs and one can only expect positive regression today. The Bulldogs shot a respectable 40% from the field but only 23% from beyond the arc Saturday. The Ramblers shot a ridiculous 64% from the field and 46% from 3-point land. Come on! That’s not happening again, not against a prideful Drake team at home. Take the dog, literally.
Georgia Tech -5 (-105), 1.5 units: Will the real Georgia Tech please stand up? The Yellow Jackets don’t get enough respect and much of that is because of their inconsistency. I expected GT to beat Clemson 2 days ago in a great spot and they dropped the ball. As long as they’re not too emotional or sidetracked after that last loss (i.e. as long as they don’t idolize Kyrie Irving), then they should out-pace the Panthers and create distance early. They’re at home and need a win– I expect a motivated GT team to cover.
Miami +7 (-110), 1 unit: This game is a little too evenly matched for the Irish to be laying 7 points. If you’re laying 7, you need 3 straight possessions over the other team. Miami has a solid enough defense to contain Notre Dame’s offense, especially with a little motivation. This is a revenge spot for the ‘Canes after getting squashed on their home court 3 weeks ago by the very same opponent. For a season without much pomp and circumstance, this is a great spot for Miami to put up a concerted effort and challenge the Irish in South Bend. The ‘Canes cover.
This is a slightly abbreviated edition of my NBA Picks and Predictions since I have quite a few commitments today with the misses, so I’m cutting down on my verbiage to save some time. I went 1-2 yesterday on NBA bets. I was pretty blown away by the Jazz, again. That was an ideal situational spot for a let-down game and boy did they prove me wrong. I guess it’s just unwise to bet against them right now. Overall we’re 13-8 this week. Let’s finish strong!
Celtics -6.5 (-110), 1 unit: The Celtics are starting to get healthier. They’ll miss Marcus Smart and Romeo Langford but they’re getting back forward Semi Ojeleye and center Robert Williams for this contest. Boston is up and down but this is a good spot after that bad showing against the Pistons. The Wizards won’t be able to stop the Brown/Tatum combo and the Celtics feisty defense should prevent the Wizards from keeping up.
Pelicans -4 (-115), 2 units: New Orleans has had their struggles recently on defense, but this should serve as a nice get-right game as the Pistons don’t offer much firepower. Zion is playing world-class basketball right now and the Pistons get lucky facing opponents in bad spots. That’s not happening Sunday. Take the Pelicans with confidence.
Blazers/Mavericks over 237 (-110), 1.5 units: This total is deserving of the big number. These are two surging teams who are only on a tear because of their offenses. Portland has increased their defensive efforts somewhat, but it won’t be enough on Sunday. Doncic and Porzingis are in a groove in the middle of a long home-stand. I can’t see every quarter not easily exceeding 60 points, so it’s the over for me. I lean to the Mavs side, too (-4.5 or better), which could make for a decent parlay.
Lean- Cavaliers +10 (-110): Watch the news on this game before tip-off. This could be a rest spot for Kawhi or other Clippers starters. Even if it’s not, this is a decent let-down spot for LAC, which I can see the Clippers still winning but Cleveland’s looking for a little redemption after that Friday night blowout. A cover is very possible.
Nuggets wins (+105), 1.5 units: I think the Lakers win it all again this year. It’s hard to conceive LAL getting knocked out by anyone in the postseason, but this is the regular season and the Lakers are on a tireless run of unbelievable OT wins and comeback victories. LAL’s last 5 games go like this: they beat Denver at home, won 3 straight OT games, and then came back from a double-digit deficit against Memphis 2 nights ago to beat the Grizzlies by margin. And they did all of that in 8 days. I’m out of breath just typing it. This is a great revenge spot for the Nuggets, so I can see the Lakers getting caught and playing behind early in this one again. As great as Lebron and his team is, I don’t think they can catch up if Denver takes a big lead, not with the way Jokic and the Nuggets are playing right now. Next to the Jazz, the Nuggets are the biggest threat to LAL’s crown and I think they make a statement Sunday.
Yours truly was 4-1 last night and now I’m 12-6 overall betting the NBA this week, a cool 66.6% win rate. The fire is blazing– let’s keep it alive!
Pacers -1.5 (-110), 1.5 units: The Hawks are skidding right now and things may get worse tonight. Atlanta is coming into this contest without a ton of dependable players, including De’Andre Hunter, Bogdan Bogdanovic and Rajon Rondo. They got obliterated last night by San Antonio, which isn’t a good look considering the 2021 Spurs don’t frequently dominate anyone. The Pacers looked back to form 2 nights ago against the Pistons, bringing the balanced attack we’re used to seeing from Indiana when they’re playing up to par. This is another good spot for the Pacers, while Atlanta is begging for rest before a 3-game road trip. Take the Pacers.
Rockets/Knicks under 213.5 (-110), 1 unit: Houston is limping into this contest and the Knicks aren’t a good anecdote for a struggling team right now. New York isn’t a great unit overall, but they do play consistently great defense. They’re disciplined, aggressive, and they lead the NBA in points allowed per game. John Wall and the Houston offense is really struggling. Victor Oladipo is out today and PJ Tucker is questionable. I keep looking for spots to bet on Houston but they’re just so tough to trust lately. I think the Knicks steal a win, but I have to take a total that mysteriously keeps rising. This is 10 points too high.
Heat +7 (-105), 1.5 units: No one is more a fan of the Jazz right now. Utah is white-hot heading into Saturday after blowing out the Bucks and controlling that game from start to finish. Not many teams are capable of doing that to Milwaukee. Not to mention, I won some good money on Utah last night– can’t hate that. I’m only taking this position because that was a HUGE game Friday night and these guys are human after all. Utah can’t possibly play with that level of intensity in every game, let alone the next night after such a big statement win. Miami is starting to find their groove. Winners of now 4 straight, I love the way they fought and strangled the Rockets down the stretch 2 nights ago. Miami knows how to play under pressure– the Jazz, even with their new-found prowess, won’t intimidate Jimmy Butler and company. Look for the Heat to make a statement today. The Jazz should win, but Miami will push Utah.
Hopefully the gambling gods will show us some “love” on valentines weekend!
Loyola Chicago vs Drake +3.5 O/U 133 –
This is certainly the best game of the weekend.
Both of these teams are in the top 10 for FG%
Loyola plays a little slower and Drake plays a little faster.
Drake has the rebounding advantage ranking 45th in the league at 39 per game to Loyola ranking 299th in the league at 32 per game.
Loyola has the better FG percentage by a small margin but they certainly have the better defense ranking 8th on Kenpom in defensive efficiency to Drake’s 75th.
I have Loyola winning this game 70-65 but I think that the first half is the better play.
Cameron Krutwig is compared to Ethan Happ and he should be. Teams don’t have an answer for him down low and he scores in such creative ways. I think that it takes Drake some time to adjust to him. I also noticed that Loyola has been starting many of their away games on fire lately and they always seem to win the game in the first half.
Loyola Chicago 1st half -2 – 2 stars
Oklahoma vs West Virginia -2.5 – O/U 144
Oklahoma has been on a tear lately with wins vs Alabama and Texas. Their only hiccup was about a week again vs Texas Tech but they since have beaten Iowa State. One thing that I found interesting for the Sooners is that they tend to score a lot more points at home rather than on the road. They average 79 per game at home and a mere 67 on the road. I also think that number would be even lower without that high scoring Texas road win a few weeks back when they shot over 34 free throws. I think that this is a spot where West Virginia can seal themselves as the second best team in the Big 12 behind Baylor. Oklahoma has a big weakness in 3 point defense. The Sooners rank 294th at 37% defending the 3 while West Virginia ranks 38th at 37.4% shooting the 3. West Virginia also ranks 9th in offensive rebounds so they are able to clean up their misses pretty well. I am going to take the Mountaineers here and I like them all the way to -4.5
West Virginia -2.5 – 2 star
Iowa vs Michigan State +4.5 O/U 153
Michigan State isn’t a good team this year and the only reason that they covered at Iowa a few weeks back was due to Iowa trying to get fouled at the end rather than playing smart offense.
Iowa still has some defensive woes and part of the reason that they beat Rutgers and covered was due to Rutgers very low 3 point percentage at 20% that game.
Michigan State is sloppy on both sides of the ball. Joey Hauser likes to hang out on the perimiter and that doesn’t help Michigan State down low at all.
Both of these 2 teams tend to play pretty high paced basketball but Michigan State has not been putting up many points against inferior big 10 teams scoring 66 on the road at Nebraska and 60 at home vs Penn State.
I think that this is a statement game for Iowa after that long losing streak. Iowa has that great offense ranking number 1 on Kenpom and Michigan State won’t be able to slow them down.
I think Iowa covers this game at the short number here.
Kelvin Gastalum is a good fighter and has been around the block plenty of times for being only 29 years old but I feel like he has already peaked and can’t take it past that tier 2 fighter type level. Kelvin lost 4 of his last 6 fights and hasn’t really shown me anything. Ian Heinisch is also a good fighter and he might not be much better than Gastalum, but the price of this fight is what we are talking about. Ian has a nice record at 14-3 and his only 2 UFC losses were against some great competition going the distance with Derek Brunson and Omari Akhmedov. I think that both fighters can take some punches and Gastalum seems to be more susceptible to submission more than Ian is. The good news for Gastalum is that Ian doesn’t really win by submission which makes the chances of this fight increased to go the 3 round distance. Gastalum has never been knocked out but he certainly can lose at a decision. Ian has the better strike accuracy at 52% to 43% and he also has the better take down average at 1.18 per 15 minutes to .87. I think that the fight will go the distance and the -225 tells you that, but I also think that Ian can easily win this fight at the +190 price.
Ian to win the fight at +180 for 1.5 stars and take half that bet and take Ian Heinisch to win by decision at +350 at 1 star
Gilbert Burns vs Kamaru Usman -270
If you like boring main events, well this one is for you. Kamaru Usman’s fighting style is very anti-climatic. He holds his opponents against the cage the whole fight and waits for the final bell of the last round.
Usman at 17-1 hasn’t lost since 2013. He has an amazing reach at 76 inches even at 6 foot tall at 170 lbs. Burns is a good fighter at 19-3 and he is fighting very well with 6 wins in a row, but he isn’t a match for Usman. Burns won’t be able to really touch Usman him due to his speed. Usman is the Floyd Mayweather of the UFC right now.
This fight is going the distance. I know this because in Usman’s last 11 fights, 9 have went the distance. Usman is too good of a fighter to get knocked out and Gilbert Burns has only been knocked out once in his career.
Usman likes to win but he is smart about it. He isn’t going to go for the glory and instead he is going to pin burns against the cage like he does everyone else. This will be boring fight but Usman is the best at 170.
Take the fight going the distance at -140 for 2 stars and take Usman for the win by points at 1 star.
I took Friday off from my free NCAAM Picks article and I’m glad I did. Sometimes you need a recharge. Plus, I would have bet on Manhattan +4, UC Davis -9, Illinois -14, and Bellarmine -6.5– all of which would have caused me pain. What a weird week it’s been in college hoops. Strangely, I feel great about this Saturday card. Let’s get it!
Ohio State -6.5 (-110), 2 units: I’ve enjoyed Indiana’s recent run as much as the next guy or gal and I’ve won money off the Hoosiers, but I think this is the end of that dream. Ohio State is the real deal. At a certain point, as a fan or bettor, you just have to appreciate when a team is exceptional. Ohio State is solid in every facet of the game. They’re efficient, well-coached, and they don’t make many mistakes. Winners of 5 straight, Ohio State will handedly take care of business at home. I think by double digits. It’s time for Indiana to take a seat, at least for the moment. They’re overdue.
Florida State -13 (-115), 1.5 units: Wake Forest is a formidable opponent against most teams, but this isn’t most teams. The Seminoles, for my money, are one of the better teams in the nation right now (sans Baylor and Gonzaga, of course). Florida State is getting better as the year goes on. They’re one of the most efficient offenses in the country and they’re almost impossible to stop when they capture offensive rebounds, which they will against an under-sized and less talented Demon Deacons unit. Besides that aberration early in the year where they lost against UCF, Florida State is also dominant on their home court, where they win routinely by margin. Throw all the “they haven’t played in 2 weeks” narratives and other in-conference narratives out. The Seminoles will whoop the far less capable Demon Deacons at high noon, and by plenty more than 13.
Xaiver -3 (-115), 1 unit: Fool me once UConn but you won’t fool me twice. I was all over the Huskies a few days ago in a prime spot against Providence, and boy did they fall hard. Even without James Bouknight, I really thought they’d rise to the occasion as the tournament draws near. Plus they were due for positive regression, or so I thought. Not only did they not rise, they were outplayed the entire game against an average Big East team. Maybe UConn just isn’t very good without their star, and now here comes Xavier. Do you think the Musketeers are motivated for this game? I think they are. This is a big game that could propel Xavier into a solid position as we near March, and maybe this is a little recency bias but I just don’t trust UConn. Give me an above-average Big East unit to knock out the Huskies. P.S. Bouknight is reportedly still out.
Auburn wins (+115), 1 unit: Kentucky is not the same as past years, that much is clear. They’re still favored Saturday, at home, and I get it. The Wildcats still have some above-average talent and it’s a good spot after 4 straight losses to get a win. I don’t think it happens. Auburn is a formidable team with a considerably better offense than Kentucky. They’re certainly more consistent. Although the Wildcats have the better defense, this one could get away from them if they’re not properly motivated. And I’m not sure they will be. The season is slipping away, in fact it probably already has, and Auburn should want this game more. Give me the Tigers to steal one in Lexington.
Iowa -5 (-105), 1.5 units: Okay Iowa, now it’s go time. I know the market and the sharps respect Tom Izzo, but Iowa is the better unit and they have the best player in this game, by far. I don’t love the way McCaffrey coaches, but if Garza can stay out of foul trouble and stay in the game, there’s no reason the Hawkeyes shouldn’t be able to keep a distance from the Spartans. Every sharp and their brother will be on Michigan State in this game, probably because they’re still mad after Penn State covered 4 days ago, but this isn’t the same Michigan State team and Iowa has far more to play for.
Fresno State -4.5 (-110), 2 units: These are two pretty horrible teams, but Fresno State is one of the most consistent teams in the nation. You know what you’ll get from the Bulldogs. I’m an Air Force vet, and even I can admit it doesn’t get much worse than the Falcons. Fresno State won by 6 two nights ago- they’ll win by 10+ Saturday.
Duke -3 (-110), 1.5 units: In past years this would be a 5 unit bet but here’s Duke, only favored by 3 points against (yawn) NC State, and we all have some trepidation. Duke is a flawed team, but they still have plenty of talent, certainly more position by position than NC State. The Wolfpack have a fluid offense and the way they play reminds me of the Tar Heels. We all know that didn’t fare well for the Blue Devils last weekend. However, too often we look at statistics and we assume that a team who has strengths similar to another team will perform or match up the same way against like opponents. Not true. Talent, coaching, and motivation disparity make a huge difference. Duke is a proud unit and they should be very motivated to get off the schneid. Take Duke to cover.
Weber State +1 (-110), 1.5 units: This is an amazing comeback spot for Weber State. They’re the better team and they’re overdue. Check out my article 2 days ago on this very same contest. I can’t imagine the Wildcats blowing this twice.
UNC/UVA over 129.5 (-110), 2 units: This game isn’t staying under 130 points. The Tar Heels are feeling themselves after that underdog win last week against Duke, a game where they throttled the Blue Devils and could not be stopped on offense. UVA’s defense cannot be compared to Duke’s, but the Cavaliers can put up points and keep pace with teams that depend on a fast pace offense to win. The Cavaliers will surely slow this game down, just not enough to keep it under 130 points. This line indicates as much, since nearly ever UVA total is in the mid 120s range. In other words, the books are daring you to take the under by making the total look higher than it is. Don’t do it. North Carolina knows that if they have any chance of winning, they’ll need to push the fast-break and pressure the UVA front court. I think UVA covers, but I think they’ll have to eclipse 70 points to do it. That favors the over.
UFC 258 presents a decent card Saturday night and I’m here to set you up with what I think is some of the best value bets. Plenty of opportunity- Good luck!
Brian Kelleher (+195): Ricky Simon is fun to watch. He fights with reckless abandon and can fool his opponent into thinking he’s not technically sound, yet just over 3 weeks ago he showed his range with a dominant 2nd round win by submission over Gaetano Pirrello. Simon is relentless, intense, and does not retreat. Brian Kelleher fights with a more calculated aggression. Kelleher suffered a set-back loss last June against Cody Stamann but then got back in the win column against Ray Rodriguez in September. For my money, Kelleher is still underrated. With a pro record of 22-11, 35% by KO/TKO and 45% by submission, Kelleher can beat you in a lot of different ways. A complete fighter like the underdog Saturday night, who’s tactical but as fearless as the favorite, spells value to me. I’ll be on Kelleher to win.
Polyana Viana (+120): I’m not sure if I’ll bet this but there’s inherent value in Viana since this is an evenly matched contest. Mallory Martin, the favorite, is a young prospect in the UFC Women’s strawweight division. Viana has gone 1-3 in her UFC career, with her last victory coming by quick submission. Martin beat a struggling Hannah Cifers in her last fight, so I’m not sure how seriously I should take that win. Viana has the reach advantage and both fighters last fought in August 2020. If the always scrappy Viana can get this fight to the ground and look for a submission, she can win this fight.
Ian Heinisch (+180): Kelvin Gastelum has been through some wars. At his best we’ve seen him defeat the likes of Tim Kennedy and Michael Bisping, and he’s gone the distance with UFC stars Darren Till and Israel Adesanya. His last fight might’ve been his poorest performance. Jack Hermansson is a beast but Gastelum looked unmotivated and overwhelmed, losing the fight within 90 seconds of the first round. Ian Heinisch is a formidable opponent, capable of going the distance (50% of his fights have) and he has powerful striking ability, as we saw in his impressive 1st round TKO over Gerald Meerschaert last June. There’s an intangible about Heinisch that’s hard to describe, too. The Denver native trains out of Thailand, survived addiction and a stay at Riker’s Island in a previous life, and apparently tells every opponent he fights, “you just fought a future UFC champion.” There’s a toughness and resilience to Heinisch that I might be pretentiously overstating, or perhaps the young man is poised for a run. If Gastelum isn’t as desperate as he should be, I like Ian’s chances.
Maycee Barber (+105): It’s hard to find plus money on the underdog anymore as Maycee Barber has been steadily taking in money. One of the biggest prospects in female MMA has been through the ringer the past year, tearing her ACL and losing to the scrappy Roxanne Modafferi last January. Now that the whole world knows Roxanne a little better this isn’t entirely shocking, but Maycee was a huge favorite in that fight and now the books are selling her value. Maybe it’s a question of the ACL and Alexa Grasso is a very solid fighter, but Barber has tremendous upside and should be supremely motivated heading into UFC 258. The fact that this fight is right before the main event speaks to Barber’s star potential. It ain’t because of Grasso, I’ll tell you that. Unless she pulls another ligament, Barber has a very real strength and athleticism advantage and should overwhelm Grasso. This is my favorite pick and I expect this line to keep reversing in her favor. Take Maycee.
Kamaru Usman to win inside distance (+215): Usman is not superhuman, but he may be the closest thing we have in the fight-game. Riding a humble 16 fight win streak, Usman is, for our money, the most complete fighter in the UFC. Gilbert Burns is a formidable opponent in the sense that he’s well rounded and capable of big knockouts, but he’s not in the same class as Usman. Usman’s reach advantage will be a healthy 5 inches Saturday and that’s bad news for Burns. The underdog would have to catch Usman making a big mistake (which literally doesn’t happen) or fight perfectly to compete with the champ. Five rounds with these two studs feels like a long time, so why not take a shot at Usman ending the main event early. Usman is surely capable.
UFC 258 Parlay- Maverick, Muhammad, Maycee Barber and Usman (1 unit to win 4.5 units): Maverick looks like she could be a a star-in-the-making after her first UFC fight ended in an impressive stoppage win. Her opponent, Gillian Robertson, is a solid fighter but hasn’t been as active nor does she have the upside of Maverick. The young gun should take advantage of her position. Belal Muhammad is a -500 for a reason. He’s the far better fighter and his opponent hasn’t fought for 16 months. Take Muhammad with confidence. Check out my write-ups above on Barber and Usman for more intel on why they’re ideal parlay additions, too.
