Oklahoma State's Cade Cunningham (2) and Isaac Likekele (13) celebrate during the second half of the college men's basketball game between the Oklahoma State Cowboys and the Arkansas Razorbacks at Gallagher-Iba Arena in Stillwater, Okla., Saturday, Jan. 30, 2021. Cowboys beat Arkansas 81-77. Photo by Sarah Phipps, The Oklahoman
Liberty vs Oklahoma State -7.5 O/U 140.5
Liberty is the Virginia of the Atlantic Sun conference. They play slow at 63.1 possessions per game and shoot great ranking 4th in the nation in effective FG% at 57.4% Oklahoma State plays fast and has really stepped up their defense. I think that the Atlantic sun conference is bad and when Liberty stepped up in competition, they were blown out by Purdue, they lost by 9 to Missouri and they lost to TCU.. I also think that Oklahoma State has been dying to get back on the court after facing Texas who couldn’t miss a shot in the Big 12 tournament. Liberty is a nice solid team but they are stepping way up here in competition here and Oklahoma State is poised to makes some noise. I have the Pokes here by 10.
Oklahoma State -7.5 – 2 stars
Syracuse vs San Diego State -3 O/U 139
The ACC isn’t all that good and we know this. Syracuse hasn’t been a great away from home team but Jim Boeheim at 18-12 ATS in this tournament since 2006 trumps that. Both teams play much faster than their tempo shows just due to the fact that the teams that they have played for the most part played slow. I also think that the officiating in the Mountain west is a bit kinder to the defensive side of the ball. The Orange has been pretty hot lately in the ACC and their offense ranks a nice 20th in adjusted efficiency. The Aztec’s shoot a nice 3 ball at 37.5% which is top 27 in the NCAA. I have San Diego State winning this game 74-70 so I like the over.
Over 139 2 stars
Georgia Tech vs Loyola Chicago +5.5 O/U 124.5
Now we all know about the Moses Write Covid issue and how this spread went from Loyola -2 to Loyola -5.5 when the news game out. Moses is the Yellow Jacket’s best inside presence and leading scorer but isn’t there another guy that can step up a little? 3.5 points is a big adjustment for one guy and I think that 6’10 sophomore Rodney Howard should be able to stop up some here. Both these teams got robbed in their seeding. They should be 3 and 4 seeds in my opinion. This is a pretty low total for a Georgia Tech game. My question is if there will be a let down after winning the ACC tournament? All in all, I think that the Missouri Valley conference is overrated. Loyola lost handily to Wisconsin and Richmond. Now Loyola is facing a great Georgia tech team that ranks 15th in the nation at forcing turnovers. Loyola tends to give the ball up 18.5% of their possessions. This could be a 1 and one scenario for either team but I will take the points and sprinkle.
Georgia tech +5.5 – 2 stars and sprinkle and lean over
Let’s have some fun with the bow to the gambling gods parlay!
Texas tech -175, Baylor under 140, Purdue -310, and Oklahoma State -7.5 – This pays about 6.5-1. Best of luck everyone!
This is the biggest spread so far barring Gonzaga’s matchup with App State/Norfolk State. I really do not love how Baylor finished their season, but I will say that they have some serious upside when it comes to this tournament. Hartford’s offense is horrible ranking 254th on Kenpom but their defense has a small breath of life in it at 124th on Kenpom. The America East conference is pretty bad this year and Hartford isn’t even the best team in it due to Vermont losing to them. I think this game is about defense for the Bears. Baylor stated that they will improve their defense going forward so I will be somewhat amazed if Hartford scores over 50 points here. In saying that, Baylor has no reason to try and get a blowout when they will have a tough game vs North Carolina or Wisconsin up next. I will grab the under here and I have Baylor winning this game 80-50.
Under 140 – 1.5 stars
Wisconsin vs North Carolina -1.5 O/U 139
The funny thing is that I keep asking myself, why the heck haven’t I bet North Carolina? Well, it should be quite obvious to people that Wisconsin is massively overrated on Kenpom ranking 10th in the nation and they are over-rated on Bart Torvik at 12th in the nation but then I have to ask myself, why the hell is North Carolina favored when they only rank 31st on Torvik and 28th on Kenpom. Does the whole world think that UNC is better than Wisconsin when the metric’s don’t line up? I mean, the Tarheels have their own problems turning the ball over 20.5% of the time along with a horrible effective FG% ranking 257th and 48.5% Here’s the deal in this game, the Tarheels rank 2nd in the nation and will rebound their own misses while they will be rebounding Wisconsin’s as well. The question that I have is will Wisconsin be able to box them out some and will Wisconsin hit the 3? The Badgers shoot a lot of 3s and they will not have a post game vs the Tar Heels. UNC does not defend the 3 ball well allowing 34.4% to go in. Lots of variance in this game and I can see Wisconsin getting blown out if they can’t hit and I could also see UNC getting blown out if they play sloppy and the Badgers hit the 3. I don’t think the spread will matter this game. I have this game one team 75 and the other team 61. Not sure which one but the total that I got is 136
Lean under
North Texas vs Purdue -7 O/U 127
Purdue could make a little noise here in this tournament and I like where they are seeded. Baylor will be their biggest hurdle but if they somehow can get past them, they have a legitimate shot at beating Ohio State who they have already beaten twice this year. Now both of these teams play a very slow game with North Texas ranking 350th in pace of play and Purdue ranking 274th. I must say that I think that Conference USA is not a good basketball conference and when North Texas stepped up to the plate to play better teams, they pretty much lost all of those games and many were not close. North Texas’s best win was against number 82 LA tech who I also think is overrated. My numbers with the North Texas downgrade has this game Purdue winning 66-58 so I lean Purdue and the under right now.
Lean under 127 and lean Purdue
Winthrop vs Villanova -6.5 O/U 141.5
I must say that I was hoping that Winthrop got a Missouri, or an Oklahoma or something. I am not too happy that they have to face a very talented Villanova team who has a chip on their shoulder after losing Collin Gillespie. I was high on Winthrop getting to this tournament as a potential Cinderella, but here, they will have their work cut out for them. Winthrop is a well rounded lower conference team who only has 1 loss all season but they certainly do not have any good wins either with their strongest victory against number 92 Furman way back in December. Villanova is quite a bit weaker on defense this year and they are venerable to the three allowing 35.3% to go in, but they are still playing in a much more talented conference than Winthrop is. The Wildcats play slow and the Eagles play fast. Gonna be a little clash here but it Winthrop gets hot, Nova does not have their guy in Gillespie that can put them back in the game. Kenpom has this game a 10 point spread so the market is factoring in 3.5 points for the injury.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Phoenix Suns (-10.5) 10:05pm est
The Timberwolves come into Phoenix tonight winning just 2 of their last 5 games. They are averaging 109.4 points per game, and are giving up 117.3 points per game. In his last 8 games, Anthony Edwards is posting 24.5ppg, 5.6rpg, and 1.8spg. The Timberwolves will be without leading scorer Malik Beasley due to suspension.
The Suns are currently one of the hottest teams in the NBA. They are 26-12 and currently sitting at 2nd in the Western Conference. The backcourt duo of Chris Paul and Devin Booker continue to carry the team with their efficient scoring ability. The Suns are averaging 114.1ppg, and are only giving up 107.6.
The Suns here are clearly the better team. The Timberwolves are playing bad, and without their full team they won’t be able to gel anytime soon. With 7 foot tall Deandre Ayton, and his prolific defensive skill, it will be hard for Karl Anthony Towns to get anything going. Minnesota is going to need to rely on Edwards to get something going. And it will not be enough for the red hot Suns.
I think numbers line up nicely here for Norfolk St. Ken Pom has App St at #208 and Norfolk St at #200, so they are close but I see advantages for Norfolk St in most things I look at when capping games. Norfolk appears to have advantages on both sides of the ball.
App St 1-4 ATS last 5 as a favorite
Norfolk St 5-0 ATS last 5
Norfolk St 10-1 ATS last 11 vs teams above .600 win %
The 17-9 UCLA Bruins who finished 4th in the Pac-12, come into this game on a 4 game losing streak. They are allowing opposing teams to shoot 37.6% from behind the arc. They will be looking to Johnny Juzang who is scoring 14 a game tonight to carry them.
Tom Izzo’s Spartans look to continue to build on a strong season that they produced out of the rigorous Big Ten. They were 7-4 against teams ranked in the top 10 this season. Michigan State is ranked 68th in rebounds.
The Bruins are on a downhill slide. They have lost 4 in a row, and finished 4th in a conference that produced only 4 other tournament teams. And none of those are even a 4 seed or higher. Michigan State on the other hand played in a much more challenging conference. The Big Ten had two 1 seeds, and two 2 seeds. I would never be able to go against a Tom Izzo team in March.
Well we had a 2-2 day yesterday which brings us to 9-6 on the week (60%). I keep “leaning” on sides that I should grab. Hopefully I don’t make the same mistake tonight. All in all, we keep humming at a high win rate. Read, heed, and win: Let’s go!
Lean, Wizards +11: Can’t bet on the Wizards after that let-down last night, but I also think every spot they have from here on out (until they get a win) is something I’ll look out for. The Jazz are obviously a huge upgrade in class from the Kings last night, a game in which I was shocked didn’t go over 250 points (but we hit on plenty of other live total bets on Twitter). The Jazz can clamp down and prevent the Wizards from the same liberty they experienced Wednesday, but Russel Westbrook and Bradley Beal have to be hurting for some signs of life after that tough loss. Only a lean, but I think the Wizards can keep this game close if they’re hitting on offense. They are at home, that helps.
Thunder +7 (-110), 1 unit: To be honest, I’m not entirely sure why I have a gut feeling about this one, which I know isn’t something you all want to hear. But I’ll minimize my risk with just a 1 unit bet. This just feels like the right spot for the Thunder. If Clint Capela is out tonight then it really makes a lot of sense. The Hawks couldn’t be happier with themselves recently. Winners of 6 in a row. Comeback efforts and then blowouts against teams like the Cavs and the Rockets (who a good team should blowout but, there ya go). Trae Young and Clint Capela and John Collins and others have provided consistent contributions on both sides of the floor. The Hawks seem to be finding a flow. But this is just (hard to explain) one of those games that OKC ends up winning. After all, and maybe this is where my “feeling” comes from, they’re 12-7 ATS as away underdogs. The Thunder also have a low-key very solid defense, ranking 11th in adjusted efficiency according to Hollinger’s stats. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Al Horford do plenty to lead an average offense but Clint Capela could be out tonight, which would leave a gaping hole in Atlanta’s front court. Watch for that injury update, but either way I think 7 is too many points for a feisty Thunder team who’s about to get 3 days of rest after this contest. Atlanta has a date with the Lakers in 2 nights, at the Staples Center. I’m on OKC.
Suns -10.5 (-110), 2 units: The Timberwolves continue their brutal road stretch with a 2-night doubleheader against the Phoenix Suns. Oh my. Just like 2 nights ago against the Lakers, this is a horrible spot and setup for the T-Wolves. Not only are they not equipped to take on a complete team and big boy like Phoenix but the matchup itself is terrible. Minnesota is equally bad on both sides of the court, ranking 26th in offensive AND defensive efficiency in Hollinger ratings. And then there’s Phoenix, an ascending team with arguably a top 2 NBA leader in Chris Paul and they rank #8 in offensive and defensive efficiency. They’re one of the most well-balanced units in the NBA and their pace will be really frustrating for Minnesota tonight. If the Timberwolves have any chance, it’s in their ability to drive the ball quickly and stimulate the game’s tempo. The Suns are savants at controlling the pace (again, it’s a Chris Paul thing… also a defense thing). This line could go up to 13 and I’d like it. Give me the Suns to easily cover.
Pelicans/Blazers first half over 121 (-110), 2.5 units: Remember 2 nights ago when DAME-TIME did it again? Me too, and I won a ton of money because of it (actually because of the 72 point fourth quarter but that was mostly because of Lillard and Portland). In case you haven’t heard, Damian Lillard is one of the most dominant scorers in the NBA. It’s rare you see a player in today’s NBA capable of putting a team on his back behind confident 35 foot catapult shots. Unless your name is Steph Curry. But even Steph is more a facilitator. Lillard prefers the electricity of his own talent and it may be the reason why Portland never goes too far in the postseason– Dame Time eventually runs out. Regardless, the pace and scoring of these two teams was exactly what we thought it would be. Do I think they’ll have newfound answers for it tonight? No. But there is a chance, like we saw last night in the Kings/Wizards game, that the scoring slows down in the second half just out of raw exhaustion. Playing at that pace and with that output can tank a team quick. Expect Zion to come out on fire again (I also bet on them winning the 1st half) and for New Orleans to push the pace and the totals over. That’s what worked thru the first 3 quarters Tuesday night. Again, when the Pelicans take their foot off the gas, they lose. Can we stop the madness, New Orleans? Bet the over!
Lakers -7.5 (-110), 1.5 units: I think the Hornets are a good team, not great, and the Lakers are a little beat up still, but this spot is just too awful for Charlotte. The 5 game road trip for the Hornets includes: Denver last night, LAL tonight, LAC Saturday, San Antonio Monday, and then likely an easy win next Wednesday against Houston. Off a back to back and a beat-down by Denver, could Charlotte get up for this one tonight and play over their heads? Sure. But LAL is getting healthy, they’re 13-8 at home, and King Lebron may want to sprinkle a little GOAT-dust on young buck LaMelo Ball (GOAT dust??? Idk).. in other words, he may want to impose his will more than usual. This feels like a reduced line; the Lakers can surely beat Charlotte by 3+ possessions. I’m on the Lake-show.
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This game is being played at the Hinkle fieldhouse in Indianapolis IN. I must say that both of these teams are fortunate to be in this thing. Both of them are good teams but neither are great at anything. Virginia Techs early win vs Villanova certainly helped them get in and Florida’s win vs West Virginia helped give them the nod. The secret to beat Virginia Tech is to slow down their best player in Keve Aluma who leads the team in points per game, rebounds and assists. I really do not like the way the Hokies finished their season after beating Virginia outright, they lost to Pittsburgh, went to OT vs Miami, and then lost at home to Georgia Tech. Florida didn’t show well either losing to at home to Missouri then at Tennessee. Virginia tech is the better assist to turnovers and Florida is the better shooting team 46.4% to 45.1%. I have Florida Winning 71-69 so lean to Florida and the over.
Lean Florida PK and over 137
Colgate vs Arkansas -9 O/U 162.5
I think this is actually going to be a better game than expected. Colgate is definitely in an inferior conference in the Patriot league, but this is the team that really has Cinderella stamped all over it. Colgate ranks an amazing 5th in FG% at 49.9 and their defense has not been bad at all ranking 37th in opponent FG% at 40.8%. Colgate is also a good rebounding team ranking 17th in the league in in grabbing the boards. Arkansas is the most complete team in the SEC are good at grabbing the boards as well and they are a very complete team ranking 16th on Kenpom.. This team plays very fast at 73.1 adjusted possessions per game and have a great defense ranking 14th on Kenpom. That is a rarity seeing stats line up like that where a team is strong both on defense while playing at a high speed. The Razorbacks really have no big weaknesses minus ranking 100th best in defending the 3 and it takes a very hot team who can shoot the 3-ball to beat them. In saying that, I think that Colgate could be a live dog here. Colgate ranks 3rd in 3 point percentage at 40% and ranks number 1 in defending the 3 on defense allowing only 26.1% to go in. The total on this game is massive because both teams rank in the top 25 in tempo. I have Arkansas winning this game 83-78 so I have a lean to the under but I will be betting Colgate here for sure.
Colgate +9 – 2 stars and sprinkle
Utah State vs Texas Tech -4 O/U 131
This game is an interesting smaller conference vs power 5 conference to me. Utah State for a while had my interest and I thought that they had a shot to win the Mountain West until San Diego State woke up. Utah State certainly has the height and rebounding advantage here and they are a good passing team but that’s really about it and the Red Raiders have been a good tournament team. The issue with Utah State is that they turn the ball over 19.6% of the time while Texas Tech ranks 8th in defensive turnover percentage. If Utah states 7’0 foot big man Neemias Queta gets going on D inside, Texas Tech will be forced to rely on jump shots which I really do not like and especially if you can’t rebound the ball. Mac McClung has been Utah State’s leader who transferred in last year from Georgetown, but he has been a hot and cold player himself. I can see the upside with Texas Tech but not ready to play it at this number. I have Texas Tech winning 67.5-63 here.
Lean Texas Tech
Oral Roberts vs Ohio State -16.5 O/U 156.5
Wouldn’t it be nice to get Oral Roberts and Colgate matched up in the sweet 16 here? We can call it the don’t forget to floss 16, the quit eating sweets 16? Now this game has a very high total and I must say that I am not sure that I disagree with it. Oral Roberts is a fantastic shooting team who plays fast at 71.8 possessions per game. Oral Roberts hits 3s at an 11th best 38.8% which is 11th best in the league. They also shoot a ton of them making up 46% of all of their shots. Ohio State will have to have good ball pressure in order to stop them from scoring. In saying that, the Buckeye’s offense is one of the most efficient in the NCAA ranking 4th on Kenpom but their defense only ranks 79th on Kenpom and 10th in the Big 10. Don’t talk about defense around Oral Roberts because they just don’t play it ranking 285th in defensive efficiency on Kenpom. I think that the Golden Eagles would rather have a root canal than play D. Ohio State doesn’t defend the 3 ball well ranking 191st on Kenpom allowing 34% to go in so lean is on Oral Roberts.
This is Part 2 of Friday’s Midwest Bracket breakdown — in case you missed it, check out Part 1 here. Let’s get it! March MADNESS baby!
Houston -20 (-110), 1 unit: This isn’t a game I’m begging to bet big money on but I’m happy to lay a unit on the Houston Cougars. Houston has proved over and over again that they’re a contender. I can’t explain how impressive it was to watch them overcome not one but two really challenging games against Memphis. The Tigers gave it their all and had the right spot and game-plan (mainly an equally solid defensive attack) to take out Houston. But the Cougars found a way. The Cougars also find a way to routinely clobber teams and like a true psychopath, they don’t seem to mind the destruction. To me that’s what great units do– elite teams play elite no matter who they face. Houston enters Friday winning their last 7 games and of course, as the class of the American Athletic Conference. Cleveland State has won 9 of their last 11 and they’re the Horizon League champs. In that conference they thrive, but Houston is a different animal. The Vikings rank 199th on KenPom in adjusted offense, and that’s against a strength of schedule ranking that’s 337th on defense on KenPom (among the lowest in the nation). In summation, they have one of the worst offensive attacks in the country against some of the worst overall defenses. Not a good sign heading into this contest. One of the most complete teams in the nation, Houston ranks 11th in adjusted defensive efficiency and 6th in adjust offensive efficiency on Haslametrics. How are the Vikings going to keep pace? They can do it with a ton of motivation and a lack of motivation from the Cougars, but Houston has shown no signs that they plan on letting up. A team that I think is a good comparison to Cleveland State, Cincinnati, got crushed by Houston twice this season– once by 37 points and one by 38 points. Although those data points are tough comparisons to make in postseason play, I think the disparity is wide enough here and we know these teams well enough to assume this will be a blowout. Play on Houston for me.
Rutgers -1 (-115) and under 126 (-110), both for 1.5 units: The Scarlet Knights are back in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1991– for the mathematically challenged out there, that’s 30 years! Rutgers have been a part of 4 different conferences between 1991 and 2021, whoa, so Friday will mark a big day for the slight favorites. Clemson is one of the more volatile teams in the country, ranked 342nd on Haslametrics in consistency (for a data point, there are 357 total teams). Tough to predict the outcome of their games, the Tigers at times look like they were right there with the class of the ACC (which didn’t hold as much clout this year, to be sure). At other times, Clemson stumbled and couldn’t overcome teams like Syracuse, Miami, and the January version of Georgia Tech, which was a lot less impressive version than who we see now. Lately Clemson has a little positive momentum. Although they blew their ACC conference matchup against Miami, Clemson has won 7 of their last 10 games, including impressive defeats against North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, and the better late-season version of the Yellow Jackets. I’m favoring Rutgers here because of the spot. Clemson is either one of those teams who likes the spotlight and plays up to par or who sneakily accrues wins during the season when it’s favorable. I think they’re the latter. Their offense worries me. Only slightly above average, I think they’ll struggle against a team that “ranks in the top-25 in three of our four major defensive field goal categories” according to Haslametrics. Rutgers defense is for real and they’ll be playing with house money tonight after a 30-year tournament hiatus. Clemson plays at the 6th slowest pace of any team in the brackets and Rutgers is below average in pace, too. I’ll favor the under and the Scarlet Knights to eke out a win!
San Diego State -3 (-110), 2 units: San Diego State was a feisty team last year, ranked top 10 in both adjusted offense and defense and on the docket of many a sports bettor to hammer home wagers on the Aztecs in the 2020 NCAA Tournament. Then COVID hit and all of our wager-dreams wasted away. One year later and I’m happy to look their way again. San Diego State plays in a Mountain West Conference that’s a bit underrated. Teams like Utah State, Colorado State, and Boise State have looked really impressive throughout the season. To come away the class of that conference is no easy task. I can’t say the same about the ACC. Syracuse found its way into the tournament due to a surging end to the regular season where they won 10 out of their last 14 games. Some of those were impressive victories over teams like Clemson, a streaking North Carolina, Notre Dame and NC State. Although the ACC doesn’t hold the same gravity it once did, Syracuse has an efficient offense and is among the best (18th on Haslametrics) in creating field goal opportunities. But that’s a good matchup for the Aztecs. The 14th overall team on Haslametrics and 20th overall on KenPom, San Diego State forces teams to shoot uncomfortable shots, ranked 15th in field goal percentage allowed, and 16th overall in adjusted defensive efficiency on Haslametrics. The Orangemen will be forced to shoot from the perimeter, an area they’re not as apt, which I foresee causing real issues for their back court. The Aztecs are surely motivated to prove their value in the tournament, making this one of my favorite plays on Friday. Bet San Diego State.
Lean, West Virginia -13 (-110): I liked this number more at 12 and 12.5 but I lost it on my end and as this grows, I could look more to the Morehead State side. West Virginia has one of the most prolific offensive attacks in the country. That is, when they want to assert themselves. Full of talent throughout their roster, they’re ranked 11th on KenPom and 17th on Haslametrics in adjusted offensive efficiency. They’re particularly good at getting to the free throw line and beyond the arc, although they don’t take too many chances from 3-point land. The Mountaineers are stumbling into the postseason following 3 disappointing losses in their last 5 games to wrap up their season. Of course, they also feel like they’re an elite Big 12 team so that didn’t hurt any less. Morehead State trots into the tournament as Ohio Valley champs and while we shouldn’t be overly impressed by that accomplishment (some of the worst teams in the country are in that conference), what the Eagles were able to do against Belmont is something I am impressed by. Morehead State beat the Ohio Valley juggernaut twice– once after the Bruins snapped a 21-game winning streak. You’d think that would have put Belmont in a prime position to win, but Morehead state still got the best of their foe. They also knocked them off in the conference final. The Eagles rely on a very solid defense to overcome opponents, but that might be a huge red flag on Friday against the Mountaineers. According to ESPN, the Mountaineers are 13-0 when they hold opposing teams to 71 points or fewer and 5-9 when opponents exceed 71 points and the Eagles are 17-0 when they hold opponents to 65 points or fewer and 6-7 when opponents exceed 65 points. Morehead State plays at a significantly slower pace than West Virginia, so that could work in their favor. And since it is the postseason and defense tends to thrive, I could see Morehead State closing the gap near the end. That being said, this is still a huge difference in class for the Ohio Valley Conference Champions. West Virginia is due for some positive regression and it’s reasonable to assume they can overcome and out-class Morehead State’s efforts on defense. I’ll lean West Virginia, but watch this line.
Welcome to the play-in games. UCLA started their season off very well and were 12-2 at one point. Since then, the Bruins have lost 2 big players in Jalin Hill and Chris Smith. The rest of the season has been a bit of a struggle for them. Michigan State on the other hand has faced the same challenges as well as a Covid pause but they are healthy right now and we all know March has been very good for Tom Izzo. From a simple matchup perspective UCLA has the shooting advantage at 52% effective FG% to 47.9% but sparty has the rebounding advantage of 37.6 to 35.3 per game. Michigan State gets the nod in defensive efficiency but ranking 34th on Kenpom to UCLA’s 85th. Both teams are equal in assists to turnover ratio but the kicker here for me is how hard the conference is and how these teams have finished their season. UCLA has lost 4 game in a row coming into this play-in game and Sparty has beaten Illinois, Michigan and Ohio state at the end of their season to get in this thing. I like Mike Cronin and all as a coach, but I think that Izzo’s team here with the experience gets the W. Taking Sparty.
