Happy Saint Patrick’s Day! It’s the week of the Irish and as a proud Irishman myself, it’s fitting I’m having such a solid week. We’re 7-4 so far in NBA bets and 7-0 (actually 11-0 if you count live betting and parlays) in my premium picks. If you want to know more about my premium plays and how to get them, reach out to me on Twitter. Onto today’s picks; let’s keep seeing GREEN!

Wizards -2.5 (-110), 2 units: I think it’s time for Washington to get off the schneid. The Kings are the worst defense in the league and after blowing a big lead against the Hornets 2 days ago (a moment where we capitalized on a big live bet for my Twitter followers), they can’t feel good traveling to DC. The Wizards are healthy and although they just got bested by 2 great teams at home (Philly, Milwaukee), they played admirably, especially against the Bucks. The Wizards are not a bad team and they’re capable of scoring at light speed– ranked #10 overall in ppg and #1 in tempo. That’s not a good combination for a Kings team that’s so incredibly porous on defense and hence can go behind by margin, fast. Few losses are as deflating as Sacramento’s let-down against Charlotte Monday and I can’t see the Kings getting overly excited for tonight’s matchup. They also have Boston and Philly around the corner on their long road trip; no bueno. Bet Washington.

Lean, Nets +1 (-110): We’re getting a reduced line with Kyrie out but I see it as a possible opportunity. The Pacers are amped having Chris LaVert back but they do not have the offensive prowess to keep up with Brooklyn, even with Kyrie and Durant out. Harden, in case you haven’t heard, is an MVP candidate and perfectly capable of guiding his team to a win. I’ll lean it only because of the motivational angle for Indiana.

Boston -8 (-105), 1.5 units: Is it corny to assume that the Celtics care about Saint Patrick’s Day? Yup. Am I corny? Yup. Do I also think this is a HUGE downgrade in class for Boston tonight? Absolutely. The Celtics were unable to eke out a win over Utah at home last night but that’s okay– most teams struggle against Utah and the Jazz were due a win. Cleveland is a good team to impose some vengeance on. Despite good play from Collin Sexton, the Cavaliers are really struggling. On a 4-game losing streak and ranked dead last in offensive efficiency and 24th in defensive efficiency according to Hollinger’s team statistics, Cleveland is no match for an angry Celtics team. Kemba Walker may be out tonight but I wonder if Boston is better without him. Every time I watch a Celtics game, he’s missing a shot. His injuries have really affected his rhythm this year. Kevin Love might play but I don’t care and don’t think the “revenge” angle against his former team is anything worth noting. The Celtics should flex on a pedestrian opponent tonight.

Spurs win (+105), 1 unit: The Spurs are young and injured (Aldridge, DeRozan), but 9 times out of 10 I’ll favor them over Chicago. The Bulls are another young team but they’re far more volatile. Did you pay attention to their game last night against OKC? Up and down, winning, letting a bad Thunder team come back, losing, winning, finally pulling ahead. That’s the story of Chicago this year. I want to believe as much as the next guy that the Bulls are exciting and relevant again but they’re not. Zach LaVine is a dynamic and explosive athlete but he’s not a pure shooter or great leader. Both of these squads are playing their 3rd game in 4 days but San Antonio got a night of rest Tuesday. There’s a huge coaching disparity in this one and I’ll go with the more consistent and more rested Spurs to edge out the home favorite.

Nuggets -6 (-110), 2 units: Charlotte enters tonight off an electric win Monday against the aforementioned Kings. Kudos to Charlotte but that was more about a really bad Sacramento team with an even worse defense. Once the shit rolls down hill, the Kings can’t do a thing to stop it. That won’t happen tonight. A closer look at the Hornets 4 game winning streak shows us that while that’s a good feat for any team, it’s not very impressive due to who they’ve beaten: Sacramento, Detroit, Minnesota, and a broken Toronto. Crack open a beer on Saint Patty’s day, Charlotte, but I’m not giving you any extra credit after those wins. An improving mid-tier team like the Hornets should handily defeat all of those teams, but they only eked by them. Now here comes Denver, at home, off 2 days rest, and Paul Millsap is in his 3rd game back. Under the leadership of court general Nikola Jokic, Denver will slow this game down and force Charlotte into mistakes. Although not a great defense, the Nuggets play with calculated execution that’s jarring for a young team like Charlotte. They’re ranked 5th in offensive efficiency because of that execution. Expect the Nuggets to cover and capitalize off the Hornets’ youth.

What a nice start to the week as we went 3-2 overall and gave out a live bet on Charlotte that ended up hitting (man that Sacramento defense can crumble). It’s a rainy day in the Northeast and a perfect setup for more research and and more wins! Let’s get it:

Jazz win (-175), 2 units and Celtics +4.5 (-110), 1.5 units and Jazz/Celtics under 228 (-115), 1.5 units: We get a marquee matchup and 3 bets in one game to start our Tuesday night with the West-leading Utah Jazz traveling to Boston to lock up with a Celtics team who’s won 5 of their last 6 games. I expect the Jazz to muster some real motivation and win tonight but this should be a close battle. The Celtics are 11-6 ATS this year on their home floor and it feels like they’re finally finding a little rhythm. Their loss to Brooklyn aside, Boston has been able to accumulate good wins recently against solid teams like the Clippers, Raptors, Pacers, and the Wizards in the middle of their hot streak. Utah is in a little slump. The Jazz have won only 2 of their last 6 games– one against the Magic at Orlando and one against the despicable Rockets at home. Utah is 11-9 ATS overall on the road but they’ve dropped 4 out of their last 5 away games. Still, the Jazz are 3rd overall in offensive and defensive efficiency, 2nd in the NBA in rebounds, and 5th in effective field goal percentage– all stats that Boston can’t compare with at this juncture. Utah is the better overall team and their defense should cause problems for Boston stars Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. We’ve seen what can happen when those two are slowed down– the Celtics just don’t have the depth to recoup their offense. The Jazz are on the 2nd leg of a 5 game road trip, not an ideal spot, but this is a good setup for them since their next 3 games are against lesser foes than Boston. I expect all hands and all focus on deck tonight for Utah. This feels like a game where the Jazz pull ahead by 3-4 points late into the fourth quarter and seal the win with a few free throws. I’ll take Boston’s ATS side, the Jazz to win, and the under in a game that should have a defense-centric playoff feel.

Hawks -9.5 (-105), 2 units: John Wall is undergoing knee surgery, Christian Wood has been upgraded to doubtful but still won’t play, Oladipo- I can’t figure out what he’s doing but I’m guessing he’s playing?- and the Rockets haven’t won a game since February 4th. Whew. Meanwhile, the Hawks are finding themselves. Atlanta is on a nice 5-game winning streak entering Tuesday. Contributions from Hawks’ forward John Collins combined with Trae Young’s enigmatic abilities on offense and Clint Capela’s rebounding and defensive performance has created some buzz in Atlanta. The Rockets haven’t only lost recently, they’ve lost badly. A 21 point loss to Boston, a 20 point loss to Sacramento, an insane 49 point loss to Memphis, a 16 point loss to Cleveland– this is a bad team showing no signs of improving. Houston will also host an angry Warriors team tomorrow, so it’s not like this is an ideal home spot. Short handicap, simple handicap, good handicap– give me the surging Hawks to cover.

76ers -7 (-110), 1 unit: This is a really interesting game. Do the red-hot 76ers keep their 5 game winning streak going and cover this line or do the angry Knicks seek vengeance after last night’s close-loss at Brooklyn and take it out on the Sixers Tuesday? I loved the fire I saw from Julius Randle last night. We correctly picked the Knicks to cover the spread but Randle felt he was robbed of an OT opportunity. He was right– the ball was touched by Brooklyn and that’s why he picked up his dribble– but the bigger point is what we already knew about the Knicks; this isn’t the team we know from recent past. The Knicks are fighters and they can hang with the big boys. It felt like the Nets avoided an upset last night. Unfortunately for New York, Philly is playing some of their best basketball right now. Even without Embiid, Simmons and company are trouncing one team after another. Their comfort playing at home is obvious and begs the question– is it inevitable that the Sixers will land in the Eastern Conference Finals against Brooklyn? Sure seems like it. I really love what I’m seeing from New York, but I don’t like this spot after last night’s crushing loss. This is only a one unit play since Philly plays Milwaukee tomorrow night, but I think the 76ers keep on cruising and cover this number. Their physical style of play fits an opponent like the Knicks, too, unlike the soft finesse of Brooklyn. Bet Philly.

Pelicans/Blazers over 238 (-110), 2 units: This is another handicap that’s not worth over-investigating. The Pelicans learned, again, that they’re capable of great things after they beat up LAC in a redemptive home win 2 nights ago. Well done, New Orleans; now how about we try to be a little more consistent? The Pelicans not only should play better tonight but they’ll be forced to be effective tonight. Portland is one of the most efficient offensive teams in the NBA, ranking #8 in adjusted offensive efficiency according to Hollinger’s NBA Team Stats on ESPN. Guess who ranks #7? Despite their volatile nature, New Orleans. Portland and New Orleans are equally abysmal on defense, too. Only the Kings rank lower in adjusted defensive efficiency. Both of these teams are healthy. Lillard and Zion should be ready to rock. Portland is due for some positive regression on offense after a hiccup against Minnesota. And this line has moved down too far. Hammer the over.

Can’t seem to get over .500 recently in these NBA betting picks but trust that the pendulum will swing more in our direction. The NBA may be the best “spot play” sport in the world and the spots we look for will glare brighter the further we get from the All-Star break. Let’s tackle some Monday picks!

Hornets -3.5 (-110), 1.5 units: The spot and line favor the Hornets tonight. Charlotte is on a quiet little tear, now the winners of 3 straight and about to play their third consecutive home game. The Kings are as up and down as ever. They lost 3 out of their last 5 games, managed to beat the aimless Rockets and sneakily defeated a Lebron-less Lakers before the break. The Kings and Hornets faced off last at the end of February in a game where Charlotte won by only 1 point thanks to a last-second free throw by Malik Monk. The Hornets are a mid-tier team whose 18th rank in point differential is a relevant indicator of how they play basketball. LaMelo Ball is the talk of the town but the Hornets only beat up on inferior teams. They struggle against the big boys. Good thing the Kings are pretty horrible. Sacramento is in the middle of a long East Coast road trip and and no one in the NBA is worse at preventing their opponent from scoring (the Kings allow 120 ppg, yikes). Look for the Hornets to take advantage tonight, led my LaMelo’s dynamic passing ability. PS- the total for this game is set at a staggering 239.5, which only supports the case that it’s likely Charlotte will win by margin and cover.

Wizards +9 (-110), 1 unit: The Bucks are capable of blowing anyone out when Giannis and his crew are firing on all cylinders but it’s much less likely on the road. Milwaukee is only 6-12 ATS away from their home court. Two nights ago the Bucks outlasted the Wizards but nearly lost, and that was against a team without their star. Tonight the NBA’s scoring leader Bradley Beal returns and that can only mean good things for Washington. The Wiz-kids took the Bucks to their limit in the last contest and this line is moving down. I’ll put a unit on the dog to cover.

Knicks +8.5 (-110), 1 unit: This is a really interesting handicap. We have the NBA’s #1 offense, averaging 120.6 ppg, going up against arguably the association’s best defense. The Knicks allow only 105 ppg and are rated #5 in adjusted defensive efficiency. When they’re aggressive and turn up the volume, I don’t know if there’s a better defensive unit. It’s reasonable to assume the Nets will win this game, but I think they’re laying too many points. The Knicks are good enough and have enough pride in their city to put in some extra effort tonight. New York has had some head-scratchers, like that beat-down at San Antonio before the break and recently allowing 134 points at Milwaukee. They also haven’t faced too many contenders the past month. That aside, this isn’t a true away game and I have no question about New York’s motivation. New York runs at the slowest tempo in the NBA and I think they can stun Brooklyn’s rhythm. Give me the pumped up dog.

Clippers -1.5 (-110), 2.5 units: This is one of my favorite bets in awhile and I’d be pretty shocked if it didn’t hit. The spot and trends all favor LAC. Firstly, the last time these two teams faced the Mavericks annihilated the Clippers 124-73 in late December. That’s a 51 point margin for the accounting majors out there and it’s a rare feat in professional basketball. Of course it was the very start of the season and Kawhi didn’t play in that game, but it was at home. Is there anything worse than getting your doors blows off at your own arena?– No way that still doesn’t leave a bad taste in LAC’s collective mouth. Secondly, as if the Clippers needed more motivation, they just got obliterated last night by the Pelicans. New Orleans is maybe the NBA’s most volatile team so this isn’t completely a surprise (we actually called it in yesterday’s write-up), but that’s not a good look for LAC. The Clippers pride themselves as a buttoned-up, top tier team and championship contender. I think that’s the squad we’ll see tonight. Dallas is at home but that doesn’t matter to me. The Mavericks are feelin’ good after a nice win over their Western-Conference rival Denver Nuggets 2 nights ago. Time for a shock to their system. The Clippers are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games after a 10+ point loss. As long as Kawhi and their starters are in tonight, and all signs say they are, hammer LAC!

Warriors win (+120), 1 unit: Lebron is on and off the Laker’s injury report, Gasol and Caruso are out, and the Warriors are at home after a big win against the Jazz. The Warriors are also fully healthy. This is a good set up and spot for the Golden State to flex and it’s the reason why this line is so low– books are daring you to take the Lakers. I think this is one of those games Lebron won’t mind losing, especially when all the momentum is loaded up and in full-swing at the Chase Center. I’m on Golden State for a small upset.