Houston, we have a problem. The tortuous Rockets kept me from another undefeated day as they choked over and over again in the game’s final minute against Miami. You could feel the angst in the air for Houston to eek out a win, but they couldn’t muster 3 straight defensive rebounds and a chance to tie the game. Brutal. We went 2-1 (8-5 overall this week) otherwise as the Celtics and Pacers cleaned up as expected. Onto my TGIF picks!

Timberwolves +4 (-110), 1.5 units: This is the second game back for Karl-Anthony Towns and the rising star admitted that he wasn’t mentally ready Wednesday when his team took on the LA Clippers. He put in a solid effort with 18 points and 10 rebounds but more importantly, Towns served as an imposing figure any time he was circling the front court. Minnesota came out hot in that game, motivated surely by their star’s return, but LAC grinded for a 7 point win. To me, that’s an impressive loss for Minnesota and a learning opportunity for Towns. Tonight the butterflies won’t be as present and I think the Minnesota star just might tear up the Hornets. The Hornets were sent to the woodshed 2 nights ago as the Grizzlies put up 23 three-pointers (whoa) and won by 14 points. I like watching Charlotte– their young, talented, and they can compete against great teams when they’re fluid. But eventually Minnesota needs a game where everything clicks and I think this is a good spot. D’Angelo Russell is questionable, but I don’t think he makes that much of a difference since Minnesota has adapted without him. Karl-Anthony Towns won’t be intimidated by Charlotte’s below-average center Cody Zeller, and Minnesota can score in bunches against bad defenses (Charlotte scores in the bottom half of the NBA in defensive efficiency). Take the T-Wolves to cover, and don’t be surprised if they win.

Knicks/Wizards under 219.5 (-110), 1.5 units: The Knicks and Wizards are strange teams. New York ranks #1 in the NBA in points allowed per game and dead last in points scored per game. Meanwhile, no one in the NBA allows more points than the Wizards. To make this game even weirder, the Wizards are rated #1 in the NBA in tempo with a Hollinger pace factor of 105.9. Guess who ranks dead last in tempo? Yup, the Knicks. We’ve seen this story so many times, though. The slower-paced team usually controls and affects the game more, especially if they have excellent defense. Lately Wizards’ games have been soaring under the total anyway, so we love this spot. Look for a live-bet opportunity if the 1st quarter is close to 60 points or the 1st half is close to 120. That won’t continue.

Mavericks -3 (-110), 1 unit: Two of the NBA’s hottest teams come into Friday in a great intra-divisional Western Conference matchup between the Pelicans and Mavs. Although the Pelicans lost two days ago against Chicago, New Orleans has played terrific team basketball the last ten days, winning 4 out of 5 games against very solid teams (Phoenix, Indiana, Memphis, and Houston). The Mavericks are riding their own 3-game winning streak and they’ve also won 4 out of their last 5. This should be a testy back-n-forth game so I wouldn’t be surprised if New Orleans covers the number, but the Pelicans are just 4-8 on the road this year and I don’t like how that game ended against Chicago. The Pelicans fell off a cliff in the 3rd quarter on both sides of the ball and got outscored 40-14. Yikes. Dallas has real momentum, they’re in the middle of a 7-game home stretch, and they should be able to expose NO’s porous defense. Take the favorite.

Clippers -6.5 (-110), 1.5 units: This line feels off. LAC will be without Paul George tonight, but the Clippers have far more depth than Chicago, who will be without 4 front court players. I really like the way the Clippers match up tonight. Zach LaVine has been on fire this year, scoring over 28 ppg, but he’ll have to square up against the long-armed Kawhi Leonard. Good luck. The Bulls rank 3rd in tempo and love to push the pace, but they’re not particularly efficient on offense. The Clippers are a solid defensive unit who, like the Knicks, like to slow down game-tempo. The return of Patrick Beverly should make a difference, too. The Clippers face the lowly Cavaliers in 2 days, which could serve as a “rest spot” for key players, so this game sets up well for LAC to put up a great effort before returning home. Not to mention, the Clippers are simply the far better unit. Take LAC.

Jazz -2.5 (-110), 2 units: The great thing about big primetime showdowns like this is you can get a great line. Both of these teams are elite, but I really like the Jazz tonight. We’ve all seen the Bucks buckle in the spotlight before– whether it’s Giannis choking on the free throw line or his supporting cast just not showing up as he tries to carry the team. Milwaukee suffers from a bunch of B and C rated players trying to keep up with their star. The Jazz are the opposite. Utah plays exceptional team basketball, where every player knows their role and how they can contribute best. Gobert down-low, Mitchell’s explosive play-making, Ingles and Bogdanovic’s efficient perimeter shooting– it’s true poetry in motion. Winners of 5 straight, at home and off 3 days rest, the Jazz are poised and ready to make a statement. Expect them to cover.

Lean, Lakers -6.5 (-110): This is one of those “big difference in class” games and the Lakers are due for a blowout win. The Grizzlies have allowed at least 115 points in 4 out of their last 5 games, LAL wants to extend their home-winning streak, and Lebron has showed no signs of slowing down. This is only a lean because the Lakers have a big game on deck against Denver Sunday and this could be a rest-spot. Watch for injury updates prior to tip-off, but bet the Lakers with confidence if their stars are on the hardwood.

I was 3-0 yesterday and it feels good! As a best practice, make sure you look back at this article later in the day for any injury or “rest” updates, since that seems to be the only way we’re losing wagers in the association. Onto Thursday’s picks!

Rockets win (+110), 1.5 units: Okay this is a great spot to play on the Rockets, for real this time. Houston heads into this contest losers of 3 straight while their foe, the slow-starting Miami Heat, are marching in as winners of 3 straight. The absence of Christian Wood has caused some derision as the Rockets have been one of the worst defenses in the NBA for the past week. Overall they’re still a top 5 squad. Frustrated with recent play, their defense is due for significant positive regression. Losses against the Spurs, Hornets and Pelicans can’t be taken too seriously anyway, since all of those teams have been on fire recently and one of the Rockets’ stars have sat in each of those contests. John Wall is still nursing an ankle injury but he’s probable tonight. Other scoring stars Eric Gordon and Victor Oladipo will play, too. The Heat come in full of injuries of their own, including Avery Bradley, Goran Dragic, Gabe Vincent and Maurice Harkless. I expect the Eastern Conference champs to figure it out eventually, but this is a much better spot for the Rockets to get off the schneid. I want to bet more on this game, but John Wall’s shaky ankle makes me a little conservative. Either way, I think Houston escapes the victor Thursday night.

Celtics -3 (-115), 2 units: This line is going up on Boston and I agree with the move. The Raptors aren’t the same team that Boston whipped in early January, climbing their way back to the 5th spot in the Eastern Conference after a shaky start. Make no mistake about it, Toronto could very well play spoiler come playoff time. That being said, the Celtics are in a fantastic get-right spot tonight. I love to wager on a team when a star player calls their teammates out, especially on a team like the Celtics where no one player has an ego too big. Jaylen Brown vocalized his disappointment after the Celtics were thrashed by Utah Tuesday night. Lately every team is getting punked by the Jazz and the Celtics were on the fifth and final leg of their west-coast road trip, so I’m a little less worried. But Jaylen, who’s having a career year averaging nearly 27 ppg, has the leverage and leadership guile to galvanize this team. Jaylen’s knee still isn’t 100% and that’s something to watch, but I don’t think it’s anything that a little “treatment” can’t solve at this point. The Celtics, who are back at home and need a win, are not a team I’d bet against tonight. Boston wins by 9.

Pacers -3 (-110), 1.5 units: How about them Pistons huh?! Who would have thought it would be the Pistons who humble the star-filled, hyper-emotional Nets two nights ago? Certainly not me, (just ask my bankroll) but let’s not get ahead of ourselves about Detroit. Heading into that game no one thought they’d have a chance, especially after losing Derrick Rose and talks of tanking circulating the franchise. That can motivate any team and these are still pro-players. The Pistons love to play over their heads when overlooked, but tonight they’re running into a desperate, motivated team who certainly won’t take them lightly. The Pacers have lost 4 straight but look who they’ve lost against: a vengeful Nets team, the red-hot Jazz and Pelicans, and the Eastern Conference-leading Bucks. Indiana has also seen regression in key players like Domantas Sabonis and Malcom Brogdon, both of whom have great matchups tonight. Sabonis thrives when he can be physically dominant and he should have no issue against a light-weight Pistons front court. Jerami Grant has been electric for Detroit and could be a difference-maker again, but I like a balanced attack to put Indiana back in the win column. Take the Pacers.

2-2 in NBA bets last night, 15-12 the last 9 days. We carry on and still hate the Nets!

Hawks/Mavs over 232.5 (-110), 1 unit: The Mavs don’t play much defense but they’re starting to click on offense. In their last 4 games, Mavericks’ totals have averaged 254 points. Yowza! The Hawks are still pretty banged up, so I lean to the Dallas side (-3.5), but Trae Young is back and their lack of depth should only mean more openings for the Mavericks’ stars. I’ll take the over for a shy 1 unit.

Nets -1.5 (-105), 1 unit & lean over 235: This is only 1 unit because Brooklyn has now screwed me more than once and also because, as you probably know, I’m just not a fan of the Nets. That being said, you can’t bet with your heart and after last night’s surprising loss against Detroit, this is a much better spot for Brooklyn. Now losers of 3 straight, the Nets were visibly distraught after that loss Tuesday night. Kyrie looked like he was going to cry, which I kind of loved, but I can’t say it means positive things for Indiana tonight. I’m a fan of the Pacers’ style, but they just don’t have the firepower to keep up with Brooklyn if the Nets play like they’re capable of. Last night Brooklyn was hitting only 20% from beyond the arc in the first half and while they drove that number to 35% by the game’s end. Detroit was able to stay ahead by shooting 56% from the field and 45% on 3s. The Nets know they need to improve on defense so I expect a better overall effort on all sides and corners of the court. Not many teams make Detroit look like the 2017 Warriors but that’s what happened last night. With chagrin, I’m betting on Brooklyn to get off the schneid, which is essentially all they have to do with this humbling line.

Nuggets -9.5 (-110), 2 units: Both the Cavaliers and Nuggets are due for significant positive regression but the Nuggets are the far better unit. Jokic has a tough battle against Andre Drummond tonight but I don’t think it’ll matter much– the “Joker” is playing elite basketball at the center position. The Nuggets get Jamal Murray back and they should be fired up after their loss against the Bucks. It was a close battle 2 days ago between two NBA titans until the Bucks pulled away in the 4th. Jokic has said before that he loves when people doubt him, and he tends to put up his best performances after a humbling game like the one Monday night. The Cavs have lost 5 straight on the road and have allowed their opponents to score 122 ppg in their last 3 games. While Cleveland is better than what they’ve shown, this isn’t the spot to get-right. Expect a walloping from Denver.

1-2 yesterday in the NBA, with another Wizards game shockingly falling under the total and another underwhelming performance by the Rockets, who left us with a wager not knowing they’d be without John Wall. Ya hate to see it. Onto Tuesday!

Nets -6.5 (-110), 1.5 units: The Pistons may be in full tank-mode, or at least on the precipice, after announcing the trade of Derrick Rose to the Knicks. Detroit was in a supreme spot the other night against LAL and played admirably, but that might be the final wind in their proverbial sails. The Pistons are just a bad team right now. They have the lowest field goal percentage in the NBA and they’re in the bottom third in the association in points allowed and point differential. The Nets are in a good spot after losing 2 straight, so they should be plenty motivated. Even with Durant sidelined (and possibly Kyrie, who’s nursing a hurt finger), I expect a Harden-led outfit to completely dismantle the aimless Pistons tonight.

Lean: Rockets +6 (-110): I’m back on the Rockets, again? Yup. The Pelicans have played really well lately but when the Rockets are ALL present on the court, which seems to be a fleeting scenario lately, they’re a dangerous team. Assuming John Wall and Eric Gordon and Victor Oladipo play tonight, the Rockets should not be this much of an underdog. The injury to Christian Wood isn’t ideal, but Houston has more than enough firepower on offense and solid defenders to keep up with or defeat New Orleans. I lean only because Houston has forsaken me a few times recently, so I proceed with caution.

Warriors win (-105), 1 unit: Well we watched, we observed, and as usual Draymond Green makes another dumb move (and one of the worst shots you’ll ever see) and the Warriors lose a close game last night in San Antonio. Any team is tough to beat 2 nights in a row. A team with a motivated Steph Curry is really tough. The Spurs are obviously a solid outfit, but losses like last night tend to awaken well-coached teams like the Warriors. It’s also a low-key Western Conference rivalry, so there’s plenty to get energized for. I like Golden State to make fewer mistakes and pull away tonight.

Jazz -5.5 (-110), 1.5 units (Lean: under 220): Stepping in front of the Jazz right now is a scary proposition. Even when they’re tested against a good team like Indiana 2 days ago, the Jazz have a way of grinding down their opponent on both sides of the ball. The Jazz are second only to the Bucks in point differential, displaying a top 7 offense and a top 3 defense. The Celtics will present a challenge tonight, but Boston is on their 5th straight road game in just 7 days. Jaylen Brown could return, it’s unclear right now (seems like everything is unclear until right before game-time in the NBA these days). Brown is having a career year at over 26 ppg, so he certainly makes a dent. Regardless, Utah is returning home after a long road trip and they’ll have 3 days after this game to prepare to face Milwaukee, who’s on deck in a big Friday night matchup. I expect the Jazz to take care of business before a sweet break and big-time showdown.

Magic +6 (-110), 1 unit: The Trailblazers are on a nice little tear right now, but they should not be favored by 6 points tonight. Professional sports bettors say it all the time– play the number, not the teams. I know, I know– Portland has turned things around, seemingly, and the Magic have gotten ice cold after a very hot start. Injuries continue to plague Orlando, too, with key players like Fultz and Gordon and others still out for this game. I still like this spot, though. Portland is coming off a 6-game road trip and now they’re back at home, comfy and feeling sassy, before a big game against the 76ers in 2 days. In other words, this is a very plausible let-down spot. I expect Orlando to play with pride and more motivation than the Blazers, so I’ll take the points.