NBA Picks and Predictions – Feb 8, 2021

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February 8, 2021

Rockets' star John Wall squaring up on defense.

It was a very solid week in NBA betting as I finished 12-8 overall, a 60% clip. Let’s continue as best we can, and I’ll try to avoid those bad beats and unsettling last minute “rest days” that can change a wager. Onto the picks!

Rockets -1.5 (-110), 1 unit: Buyer beware: The Rockets announced at roughly 2:00pm EST that John Wall will rest this one out. I still like the Rockets, but not as much as I did before. If you’ve been following my NBA articles you know I’m pretty fond of Houston this year and I can’t help it– they’re a better team without Harden, an actual TEAM, and they’re full of underrated talent. Charlotte is coming into tonight off an easy win against Washington yesterday, but between that game and the Super Bowl who knows how much rest they’ve gotten. The Hornets are a young, improving team with a lot to learn and plenty of maturation to develop. The Rockets, on the other hand, are healthy and rested and full of veteran talent. The Hornets struggle offensively against above-average defenses and Houston has been improving steadily on defense all season. The Rockets are also full of scorers like Victor Oladipo and John Wall and Eric Gordon who, when all healthy, can quickly create distance from their opponent. Houston is the better team, in a better spot, and I love how they matchup tonight.

Wizards/Bulls over 237 (-110), 1.5 units: Do the Wizards ever get a break? It doesn’t feel like it. Tonight will be a good chance for the Wiz-kids to score a rare win against an opponent who plays a lot like they do. Don’t look now, but the Bulls have one of the better offenses in the NBA. Chicago is 4th in the NBA in scoring at over 115 ppg, and like the Wizards, they have one of the worst defenses in the association (27th in points allowed per game). Yesterday’s game between Washington and Charlotte should have gone over; the Wizards couldn’t make a shot in the second half and that stunted the total. I think today’s over has an even better chance. Both of these teams routinely score in the 120s and I think they do it again tonight.

Lean- Warriors win (even): I don’t bet many San Antonio games because they’re a tough team to figure out, but this is a much better spot for Golden State. Off a disappointing loss to Dallas to finish off their double-header, the Warriors got a day off and head to San Antonio looking for some redemption. The Spurs are riding a nice little 2 game winning streak and they seem like they can beat anyone on the right day. This is an observe and take notes game for me, but it just feels like the right situation for Steph Curry to drop another 40+ and facilitate a solid team win against a mid-tier defense. I’ll watch this game with interest to see how the teams match up and game 2 should give me a better angle. If I had to bet this tonight, I’d be on Golden State.

Bucks/Nuggets over 233.5 (-110), 1 unit: This is a showcase game between two of the NBA’s top offenses. Both teams rank in the top 3 in scoring per game, Jamal Murray should return, both squads love to push the fast break and get high-percentage shots, and lately Jokic and Giannis have been playing sensational basketball. It’ll be a good back and forth battle and I don’t think it’s won on defense– it’ll be won by who can pull away. This games goes into the 240s.

NCAAM Picks and Predictions – Feb 8, 2021

By

Chris R. Farley

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February 8, 2021

An Eastern Kentucky basketball player slam-dunking.

Iowa choked again, Villanova didn’t quite do enough and Loyola Chicago fooled me twice– not the ending to the weekend I wanted but overall, I was 27-23 and +6.50 units on the week. Let’s stay way over .500 in CBB for the next 7 days, starting now!

Quinnipiac -3.5 (-110), 1.5 units: Fairfield didn’t fare well (get it?… you get it) against Quinnipiac a day ago and I don’t see them faring any better today. The Stags are one of most inefficient teams in the country, with below-average defense and a slow-paced, ineffective offense. We saw that clear as day when the Bobcats easily out-paced and out-performed Fairfield, winning by a 15 point margin and holding a lead all game. While Quinnipiac isn’t a stalwart program by any means, they play at a fast tempo and their defense is ranked in the top half of the country according to KenPom. This line is giving the Stags the “double-header respect” and I get it, but it’s wrong. Fairfield really struggles against any team that plays remotely good defense. The Bobcats can beat up on Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference (quite a mouthful, isn’t it?) bottom-dwellers and they’ll win by margin again today.

Eastern Kentucky -9 (-115), 1.5 units: SIU Edwardsville is really bad, and they’re even worse when they play against an above-average conference team. Eastern Kentucky isn’t Belmont, but they play with an aggression that doesn’t bode well for an ultra inefficient team like SIUE. The Colonels rely on turnovers and fast breaks and a lightning pace to defeat their opponents– something that doesn’t work against more experienced and elite teams like we’ve seen in their recent losses, but something that works really well against inferior opponents. This is a good spot for the Colonels to get-right after 2 recent losses, and they need to keep winning to stay competitive in the Ohio Valley. I like Eastern Kentucky to cover and this line is rising– get on it while you can.

UNC Greensboro +4 (-105), 1 unit: I’m taking a shot at UNC Greensboro because I like this matchup for the Spartans. UNCG is one of the best teams in the country at defending the 3 point shot, ranking 16th according to Haslametrics. Furman relies heavily on 3 pointers and have little refrain from launching it beyond the arc. This should be a testy in-conference battle, which makes me want to favor a better defense before a better offense. I love that UNC Greensboro is getting points in a game they could easily win. Give me the “dog” and the considerably better defensive unit.

Miami +10 (-110), 1.5 units: Even in an OT loss, I was really impressed by the way Miami played Saturday against ACC rival Virginia Tech. When in-sync, the Hurricanes are a dangerous team. That was a PRIME spot for the Hokies and still, Tech needed a last second 3-pointer to send the game to overtime. UNC is coming off a huge win Saturday in the “greatest rivalry in sports” against Duke. It was a valiant effort on all sides of the ball and they probably should’ve won by more (the officiating was horrendous at the end, giving Duke more of a chance than they deserved). That makes tonight’s game against the ‘Canes a huge let-down spot for the Tar Heels. This is too many points for a team this feisty, and I think Miami has a shot to get an upset win. Don’t be shocked it it happens.

Nebraska +11.5 (-110), 1 unit: Minnesota is a decent team but should they be valued by this much? The Cornhuskers are the bottom dweller of the Big 10 and they’ve had a tough year with COVID, but I think they’re getting a bit undervalued. After a long layoff, they returned to the hardwood and lost to Michigan State by 10. Not a great look, but coming back after a 4 week break is no easy feat. If this was their first game back I’d favor Minnesota, but Nebraska has played respectably against conference foes like Michigan State, Indiana, and even Michigan. I have to take a bet like this because I just don’t think it’s the right number. Minnesota -8.5 sounds right to me, so I’m on the dog.

NCAAM Picks and Predictions – Super Bowl Sunday

By

Chris R. Farley

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February 7, 2021

Iowa -3 (-110), 1.5 units: I was leaning the Indiana side here today, I just love the way they play for their coach, but it was Indiana who started the Hawkeyes’ recent slump. The Hoosiers beat Iowa convincingly 2 weeks ago, and the Hawkeyes now find themselves losers of 3 of their last 4. Iowa isn’t as good as many people think, but they’re much better than how they’ve played as of late. When a conference foe beats you at home and you expect big things for your season, there is no greater motivation than getting revenge at their home court. The Hoosiers aren’t a team that lays down for anyone, so it won’t be easy, but I think Garza plays with fire and the Hawkeyes get off the schneid. They need to. This line doesn’t scare me either since the way college games are played right now, with 26 fouls at the end of every game, only increases the chance that they’ll cover. Iowa will maintain a second half lead and finish the game at the foul line.

Loyola Chicago -18.5 (-105), 1 unit: Well this bet didn’t work yesterday but I’m going right back to the well and putting another unit on the Ramblers to blow out Evansville. The underdog played admirably and stayed in the game throughout the first and second halves, but Loyola Chicago started to pull away and flex its muscles late in the second half, finishing the game with a convincing 13 point win. I expect them to carry that momentum into this contest and obliterate the Purple Aces. It’s really hard to stay competitive with a great team like Loyola Chicago once. It’s really, really hard to do it twice. I love that I get this game at a reduced price and a reduced number, too. Go Ramblers! If you want to read a deeper analysis of these teams, check out my post on this game yesterday.

Villanova -13.5 (-110), 1 unit: Time for the Wildcats to flex their muscle. Saint Joe’s isn’t the worst team in college basketball, but Villanova’s recent loss to SJU was a wake-up call. The 3rd ranked Wildcats are one of the most consistent teams in the country. Equipped with great coaching and a top 40 defense, Nova may not be able to keep up with Baylor and Gonzaga but they should be one of the final teams to compete in March. Georgetown is a solid enough team when they play well but they should have real issues stopping the 5th best adjusted offense in the nation (according to KenPom) today. I expect the Wildcats to be supremely motivated and prove their standing on top of the Big East Conference. This line is right, but I think it’s a 20 point win for Nova.

Super Bowl 55 Free Prop Plays – Sports Betting

By

Kiev O'Neil

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February 7, 2021

An image of Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes hoisting up the Lombardi Trophy.

Here we go! Let’s make some money today! These are the free plays that we discussed over the past 2 weeks of podcasts and shows plus I added a few. Good Luck Everyone!

First score of the game

KC FG +400 – 1 star premium shared
Tampa FG +500 – 1 star premium shared

First touchdown scorer:

Clyde Edwards-Helaire – +1300 – 1 star premium shared – Great Number for an RB

Leonard Fournette – +1100 – .5 star premium shared – Great number for an RB and lowest payout for us profiting only 1.5 units. Safe Guard Play

Mike Evans – +1000 – 1 star premium shared – He has the most Tampa TDs

Super Bowl MVP:

Tyreke Hill +1000 – 1 star premium shared – Remember when he had over 200 yards in the first quarter this year? It happened in college with Devonte Smith so who knows.

Tyreke Hill over 100 receiving yards – 2.5 star premium shared play

Leonard Fournette over 3.5 receptions (+105 at bookmaker) – 1.5 star premium shared play.

Fournette at least 27 receiving yards (-102 at most places) – 1 star premium shared play.

Tampa Bay over 1.5 sacks (-190) – 2 star premium shared

Tom Brady Passing attempts under 39.5 – 1 star premium shared play – If Tampa plans on throwing a lot against the Chiefs, then you might as well give the Chiefs the win right now

Total players to have a passing attempt over 2.5 (+150) – 1 star premium shared – This is the super bowl and with these 2 coaches, I would be shocked if at least one of them didn’t pull something straight out of their asses.

Color of liquid poured on the winning coach – Orange +125 – 1 star premium shared – Best way to bet the Chiefs? The color last year was orange. Superstition tells them to keep the same color. Also, if Tampa wins it still could be orange.

Ronald Jones over 34.5 rushing yards (-115) – 1.5 star premium shared play.

How Many Times Will Belichick be Said – Over 1 Times -175 – 1.5 star premium shared play – Nantz and Romo won’t be able to resist.

Total Sacks over 3.5 (-150 to -190) – 1.5 star premium shared play – These act as a good inverse to a lower scoring game

How many times will the Patriots be said Over 2 (-105) – 1 star premium shared play.

Antonio Brown under 41.5 receiving yards (-114) – 1 star premium shared

Mecole Hardman under 2.5 receptions (-133) – 1 star premium shared

Chris Godwin under 5.5 receptions (+100) 1 star premium shared – He hasn’t had over 5 receptions since they played KC on week 12. They were desperate and throwing the ball the whole half to try and come back. I think Tampa runs it more.

Patrick Mahomes over 21.5 rushing yards (-130) – 1.5 star premium shared – I was hoping for it to go down. Too many people gave out this prop.

Antonio Brown no TD – (-235) – 1 star premium shared

Super Bowl 55 Breakdown and Free Play – Sports Betting

By

Kiev O'Neil

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February 7, 2021

Kansas City vs Tampa +3 (-110) O/U 56

The Super bowl is here and it will be represented by some great teams here. No surprises that the quarterbacks in this huge game are Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes. The largest data point that we can’t ignore is the fact that Kansas City came into Tampa Bay and kicked the crap out of them the whole first half. They were never in danger of losing the game and they allowed a lot of Garbage time for Tampa to get the back door cover. I am only giving Tampa a .5 home field advantage due to the fact that this is the super bowl and both teams have been better on the road. Lets get into some of the data. Tampa scores 28.5 points per game at home and 32.5 on the road while KC is 28 at home and 31.6 on the road. Advantage KC. Tampa also gives up more points at home at 23.9 to 21.2 on the road while KC is slightly better at home giving up 22 points to 23 on the road. The Total yards per game correlate the same. Football outsiders have their power numbers in DVOA has Tampa bay the second best team in the nation and KC the 6th best team in the nation. I can’t agree with that as I have the Chiefs the best team in football. For yards per play, Tampa Bay is at positive +.6 and Kansas City +.8. Advantage Kansas City. My Algorithm has Tampa by winning 28 to 27 based on the efficiency numbers but I disagree with it due to KC in my opinion having the harder schedule. But when I just use home vs Road Stats, I have Kansas City 29.5 to 27 making KC a 2.5 point favorite with a total of 56.5 Lets look at the matchups. KC has a pretty good rushing yards per attempt average at 4.5 while Tampa’s strength is against the run allowing only 3.7. On the other hand, KC is a little weak against the run, similar to the Green Bay packers allowing 4.5 rushing yards per attempt, but Tampa only averages 4.1 yards per rush themselves making this a mute point. On the receiving side of things, KC is an amazing 7.8 passing yards per attempt while Tampa allows an average 6.4 yards per pass. Tampa gets a nice 7.4 yards per passing attempt while KC allows 6.6. This is pretty much a wash although I will say that Tampa does give up 249 passing yards per game but their defensive backs have been on the right side of the officiating the last few games.

A key injury for Tampa was losing Jordan Whitehead last game to a shoulder injury, he will play but I have to imagine he is still somewhat hurt. Antoine Winfield is their other safety and he will play but missed his last game due to injury. Pressuring the QB will be key for Tampa’s success. They are 4th in Sacks this year and 3rd in pressure rate. Kansas City is 12th in pressure rate and 19th in sacks. Very average if you ask me. Tampa will have an advantage there especially if Eric Fisher is out this game. Advantage Tampa Bay. In Conclusion, being that my numbers slightly favor Tampa at the 3 and the data Point from their actual game and the upside favors Kansas City, I will probably stay away from the side in this game at these numbers. From my pure power ratings, using .5 as home field advantage, I have the Chiefs -3.25. I think that the best play for this game is to bet the first half under 27.5 points and the 2nd half over 29 if it is a close game at the half. Both teams will come out trying to not make mistakes and Tampa will try and establish a running game. The second half will be the one with the fireworks. I hope everyone has a fantastic day and enjoy the big game!

First Half Under 27.5 – 2 star premium shared play

NBA Picks and Predictions – Super Bowl Sunday

By

Chris R. Farley

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February 7, 2021

Handicapping basketball on Super Bowl Sunday should give us an advantage since the books have to be at least somewhat distracted by the biggest betting event of the year, but how distracted are the teams? It’s a weird day to bet, so I’ll approach with caution and only 2 picks. 11-7 betting NBA on the week– let’s close it out strong!

Jazz -5 (-110), 1 unit: I’m not sure who’s in the better spot here, but are the Pacers still exhausted after that disappointing loss against New Orleans 2 days ago? They might be. Indiana was in a great spot at home against a tired team and almost pulled off the comeback win, but they just couldn’t muster the energy at the end. The Jazz have picked up right where they left off after getting beaten by Denver a week ago, winning 3 straight games by margin and looking very fluid on both sides of the court. Bogdanovic has been a nice additional lately, too, as a very dangerous perimeter shooter. I like the Jazz to keep rolling against a mid-tier Indiana team that probably just wants to drive home and watch the Super Bowl with their family.

Wizards/Hornets over 236.5 (-110), 1.5 units: The Hornets have scored over 110 points in 4 out of their last 4 games and over 120 points in 3 of their last 4 games. After a few games that surprisingly haven’t soared over the total, the Wizards are due for some positive regression on offense. Brady Beal should have his way with a very average Charlotte defense, and I don’t suspect the Hornets will have any issue with the league’s worst defense in Washington. I like both of these young squads to put on an offensive showcase before the more popular festivities later in the day.

NBA Picks and Predictions – Saturday, Feb 6

By

Chris R. Farley

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February 6, 2021

Ja Morant and his teammate hanging out during a game.

The Pacers couldn’t pull off the comeback last night and Durant had to leave due to health protocols in the third quarter, so who knows how that game could have ended, but overall we’re still charging forward at 9-6 in NBA betting this week. Onto Saturday!

Knicks win (even), 1 unit: The Knicks are in a good spot today, off 3 days rest and healthy, as the Blazers continue to be plagued by injuries. It looks like Lillard will play, but he’ll have the weight of his team on his shoulders without McCollum and other key starters. The Knicks have one of the best defenses in the association, 2nd only to the Lakers in points allowed per game, and stars RJ Barrett and Julius Randle are starting to produce more consistently. The Blazers have rode their offensive production into a 2 game winning streak against a porous Wizards defense and a 76ers team in a bad spot without Ben Simmons. Expect a disciplined and motivated effort from New York today after losing to Portland in their first matchup. The Blazers will travel back home and get a solid 3 days rest after today’s outing in the Big Apple; I don’t think they care as much about this game.

76ers -3.5 (-110), 1.5 units: Make no mistake about it, Kevin Durant is the best player on the Nets. Harden and Kyrie and company still present a big challenge for Philadelphia, and could definitely win this game, but I love the spot for Philly and I hate it for the Nets. Coming off a disappointing loss last night and now learning that you’re losing your best player for at least a few games has to have Brooklyn feeling bad for themselves. Harden and Kyrie openly expressed frustration after last night’s game. The Sixers come into this contest off a surprising loss against Portland, a game where they sat Ben Simmons. Philadelphia should be primed and motivated for tonight. Many think Joel Embiid is the league’s MVP up until today and I can’t argue that. The Sixers are a significantly better team when he’s playing and his numbers so far (29 ppg, 56% from the field, 42% from beyond the arc and 11 rebounds per game) are sensational. While the Nets flounder emotionally, I’m on the Sixers to thrive and cover the number tonight.

Grizzlies win (EVEN), 1.5 units: Memphis is rested and it looks like they’re getting back some starters they’ve sorely missed in Jonas Valanciunas and Grayson Allen tonight. Battling through a 2-game losing streak, the Grizzlies should be highly motivated heading into this divisional matchup. Last night New Orleans squeaked by the Pacers late after almost allowing a comeback win. Facing a team like Indiana takes its toll, both in how they play defense and how they push the pace, so the Pelicans have to be tired heading into tonight’s contest. Unfortunately for them, the Grizzlies play a very similarly style to the Pacers. I like the Pelicans’ rising stars, but all things regress to the mean and I don’t think New Orleans is quite as good or as consistent as they’ve looked in recent games. This is one of those spots where the Pelicans leave fans and bandwagoners disappointed. I favor a rejuvenated Memphis squad to tire out their opponent and get a solid divisional win.

Pistons +14 (-110), 1 unit*: The Lakers don’t play on Super Bowl Sunday, so this is a great spot for them to annihilate a weak team, but it’s looking more and more like Anthony Davis and Lebron may sit this one out. Watch for updates before the game (it’s a late spot 10:00pm EST tip-off), but the Pistons are in a prime spot to show up, play competitive and feel better about themselves. They need it. Derrick Rose should also be back, which should give Detroit a boost. * If Lebron does play, this bet is OFF!

College Basketball Saturday 2/5/21 Super Plays – Sports Betting

By

Kiev O'Neil

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February 6, 2021

Kansas vs West Virginia -2.5 O/U 142

These teams already played once at Kansas where West Virginia lost the game from 3 point land shooting 35% to Kansas’s 43%.
Since that game, West Virginia lost their second best rebounder to injury in Oscar Tshiebwe to ankle injury but they had 6 or 7 games since then to make adjustments.
Other than that, these teams are pretty equal in what they do this year with Kansas actually having the slightly better defense and West Virginia having the slightly better offense.
I think that the Stars in this game like Derek Culver, Miles McBride for West Virginia and Jalen Wilson and Marcus Garrett will decide the game.
In saying that, I also think that this game might be won in 3 point land where West Virginia has an edge shooting
My Concern for the Mountaineers is that during the last 3 years, they only beat Kansas 1 time and it might seem like the Jayhawks have their number, but I think in a strange Covid year and at the short number, you get some value on WV a win here with them in such a big home game and the Mountaineers better at shooting the 3.

West Virginia -2.5 – 2 stars

Syracuse vs Clemson -3 O/U 134

This should be an interesting matchup here in the ACC. Syracuse plays faster and Clemson plays slower. Clemson will pick up the pace though if they are hitting shots and find a groove or maybe are way behind in the game. The teams that beat Clemson over the past month or so have found Clemson’s weakness. That weakness is defending the 3 pointer. They are bad at it and only rank 225th in the league defending it. The 2 wins that Clemson had recently vs Louisville and North Carolina have one thing in common that both of those teams are terrible at shooting the 3. NC only ranks 290th at 30.1% from 3 while Louisville ranks 253rd at 31.9% from the arc. The good news for Clemson here is that Syracuse also can’t shoot the 3 ranking 246th at 31%. Syracuse also struggles when facing teams with a good defense such as Virginia and North Carolina. Syracuse gives up 80 points per game on the road.

Clemson -3 – 2 stars

Northwestern vs Purdue -7 O/U 137.5

Purdue is coming off of a tough loss at Maryland where many of their fans were pretty upset with that last call in the game. I imagine the players can’t be too happy themselves about it and will be wanting to put up a big score today. The good news for Purdue is that Sasha Stephanovic is back from a Covid pause and he will be dying to light it up from 3 point land. Northwestern is a very fast paced team, and usually when on the road, they can’t hit shots which means that they give the other team extra possessions. The big thing for me here is that I wonder how Michigan State which is an inferior team to Purdue is laying 12 at home to Nebraska when Purdue is only laying 7 at home vs a team that isn’t much better than Nebraska. I have Purdue winning by 10 here minimum.

Purdue -7 – 2 stars

UFC Fight Night 184 Free Plays – Sports Betting

By

Kiev O'Neil

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February 6, 2021

Alexander Volkov vs Alistair Overeem +170

It’s the main event and we have two very seasoned heavyweights here who have been through all out wars. Overeem is the elder at 40 years of age and Volkov is still in his prime at 32. Overeem is 47-18 with 25 KOs, 17 Submissions and 5 decision while Volkov is 32-8 with 21 KOs, 3 submissions and 8 decisions. Volkov is a very tall man at 6’7 265 and Overeem is 6’4 252. Both of these fighters are strikers looking for the knockout and that is why you see it juiced to within the distance. The key thing that sticks out to me is that both fighters have beaten some of the best in the business and both fighters just could not get to the next level of champion. For me this fight is all about the price. Volkov over his last 5 fights has 3 good wins and 2 losses to great competition in Curtis Blaydes and Derek Lewis Overeem has 4 wins and 2 loss in his last 6 to Jairzinho Rozenstruik which is completely acceptable and also Curtis Blaydes. This fight to me is about the price. I think that these fighters are closely matched but the age factor is what pushed Overeem up to +170. I watched Alistair’s last fight vs an up and coming Augusto Sakai and I was impressed on how he was able to get him to the ground when needed. Can he do that vs Volkov? His take down game is definitely better at 1.44 per 15 minutes to Volkov’s .2 per 15. I think that if Overeem can get this fight to the ground then he will have the advantage. If Volkov can keep him at bay using his height as leverage then he will win the fight. I think the price of this fight should be +120 for Overeem to -140 for Volkov. I’ll take the dog here.

Alistair Overeem +170 – 1 star

Clay Guida vs Michael Johnson -220

These two fighters are squaring off here and like the main event, both of them have a lot of history. Michael Johnson is just an average fighter at 19-16. He is 3-11 in his last 11 fights and it feels to me like he is just in it for a paycheck even at 34 years old. Clay Guida is also a pretty average fighter who has been around forever at 39 years old and he is still going strong. Clay is 35-20 and somehow is able to go the distance against a lot of good fighters. The key thing for me in this bout is that both of these fighters have good jaws with only two KO losses a piece in all of those fights. The other thing that sticks out to me is that these fighters haven’t summitted anyone since 2 presidents ago. What this tells me is that this fight should easily go 3 rounds and I am not afraid to lay a few at -180 to see it happen.’

Fight goes the distance -180 – 2 stars

NCAAM Picks and Predictions – Saturday, Feb 6

By

Chris R. Farley

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February 6, 2021

Loyola Chicago players celebrating on the hardwood.

Another 3-0 night as we hit on Rice, Bellarmine and Wright State for a great finish to the work-week! That’s 6-0 the last 2 days, 11-7 overall in CBB this week. Apologies ahead of time if my bets are more under-the-radar games, but trust me– there’s way more value betting on those lines. They’re not as sharp, and the public doesn’t bet them as much. That gives you and I an advantage! Onto Saturday’s picks:

Oklahoma -14.5 (-110), 1 unit: Unless the Sooners show up very unmotivated, which shouldn’t be the case in a game that will kick off Saturday’s slate on ESPN 2, then there’s no reason why Oklahoma shouldn’t absolutely blow away the Cyclones. In every sense and every matchup, the Sooners are a significantly better team. Will Iowa State get up for this game? Sure, maybe. Should it matter? No. Iowa State barely plays defense and Oklahoma is one of the best teams in the country in creating field goal opportunities. That means that even if they’re not the typically efficient team they always are, they should have plenty of chances to create margin from their opponent. Coming off a tough loss to Texas Tech last Monday, which was a decent let-down spot, this is a great chance for the Sooners to recover swiftly with a decisive win over the Big 12’s worst team. I think this is a 20+ point win for the favorite.

Virginia Tech -4 (-110), 2 units: This is a very simple handicap so I’ll keep it short– the Hokies are in a great spot here, undoubtedly looking for revenge after falling to Pittsburgh last week. The Hurricanes are in the other boat– too confident than they should be after a big win in the final seconds against Duke 5 days ago. These two teams aren’t close in talent or coaching, and I’m taking the favorite at what I feel is a reduced line. Give me the Hokies by much more than 4!

Belmont -16.5 (-110), 1.5 units: We were on SIU Edwardsville 2 days ago in a lowly Ohio Valley battle and it was a tough watch, to put it nicely. The Cougars pulled ahead of Tennessee State but it didn’t feel easy. In fact the competition felt pretty evenly matched, and that’s not a compliment for the victor. I was hoping the Cougars would pull away in a good spot, and they did, but it sets up even better for Saturday’s game against the class of the Ohio Valley, the Belmont Bruins. Again, this is a huge difference in class, particularly when comparing offensive prowess. The Cougars won’t be able to keep up. This line should be over 20, so we’re all over the favorite.

Loyola Chicago -19.5 (-110), 2 units: Another big favorite, Chris? Oh yes. The Loyola Chicago Ramblers are playing some fantastic basketball. Ranked #14 on Haslametrics in positive momentum, the Ramblers have enjoyed disposing conference foes by great distance. I think we see more of the same on Saturday. The talent disparity in this game is vast. For example, KenPom ranks Loyola Chicago as having the 6th best adjusted defense in the country. Evansville is ranked #206 in adjusted offense, and that’s against incredibly weak defensive opponents. I could give plenty more examples, but you get it. If I thought the Ramblers were marching into this game unmotivated in any regard, maybe the Purple Aces (wow, what a name) would have a shot. I think the Ramblers will be hyper-motivated, though. Only one spot separates these two teams in the Missouri Valley Conference. The Aces might be feeling sneaky competitive, which I think gives the Ramblers more incentive to show-out and flex their muscles. This line is almost right, but still too low.

UVA -10 (-110), 1.5 units: Pitt just beat Virginia Tech 2 days ago, which means surely they should beat UVA right, since VA Tech already beat UVA… Right? Right….? Firstly, if that’s the way you bet, it’s one of the surest ways to lose. Secondly, no– that’s absolutely not right. This is a great situational angle, my favorite kind, and it greatly favors the Cavaliers. Pittsburgh is strutting their stuff after an impressive showing against the Hokies, and I give them credit for that. The problem is– UVA knows that Pittsburgh is feeling fat and sassy. Pittsburgh is the same team who, before their VA Tech win, got beat-down by Notre Dame and UNC, not to mention lost against Wake Forest. They’re not in the same league as the Cavaliers. Pitt has a pretty good offense, but the Cavaliers are looking for opportunities to dominate opponents defensively. I’ll take yet another favorite in a much better spot– Pitt gets let-down, hard.

Colorado State -7.5 (-110), 1.5 units: Wyoming and Colorado State played 2 days ago and I think the Cowboys played over their heads. Colorado State edged out Wyoming, but only by 2 points. So then why is this line right back up to -7.5 on the Rams? It’s the second game, and the Cowboys are playing at home– what gives? What gives is that Colorado State is the far better unit. In the first contest, the Cowboys shot 42% from the field, which is respectable, and scored 72 points against a really good defense. Wyoming was abysmal from beyond the arc, but I don’t think that changes Saturday (Colorado State is among the best in the country defending the three). I also don’t think the Cowboys can score 70 again. The Rams will be look significantly better on defense today, especially after nearly getting upset in the first game. I’m on the Rams to win by 10.

Kentucky/Tennessee under 125 (-110), 1 unit: I think this game looks a lot like Tennessee vs. Ole Miss 4 days ago. Two exceedingly good defenses battled it out and forced turnovers and tough shots for a full 40 minutes. Kentucky and Tennessee thrive on defense and both teams will pressure the other’s offense to make difficult shots and overcome their pesky styles. A first half under is a good look, too.