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Feb 29, 2020; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum (0) goes to the basket against the Houston Rockets during the second half at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports
Boston Celtics (-10.5) vs Houston Rockets 8:05pm est
Boston comes into this game playing some tough basketball over their last 5 games. They won 4 of their last 5 before losing a close one to a very elite Brooklyn team. Boston in 9th in offensive rebounds, and averaging 47.3% from shooting.
Houston comes into play looking to snap a a 15 game losing streak. They are shooting 32.6% from behind the arc. Also ranked 8th in shots per game. They are averaging 107.3 ppg while giving up 113.7 ppg.
With Houston only having 9 available players to suit up for this game, it is going to get ugly quick. Boston is a team that is finally coming into its form, and Houston is not even a bump in the road for them. With Christian Wood (22.0ppg), John Wall (21.0ppg), and Eric Gordon (17.8ppg), all out there will be little to any scoring for Houston. This might be over by halftime.
I have a crazy day today and the clocks going up an hour here on the east coast doesn’t help any. Just like my NCAAM write ups, these will be shorter than usual for that reason– onto my cash cow!
Grizzlies -7.5 (-110), 1 unit: OKC enters Sunday without guard Shai-Gilgeous Alexander, at least as far as we know, and we saw how that went in their game against the Knicks (not good). The Grizzlies don’t bring the same defensive prowess but they are in a good spot after a near-win against Denver 2 nights ago. Memphis is healthy and should easily beat the Thunder. This is only a 1 unit play because the Grizzlies have to turn around and face Phoenix tomorrow– not an ideal position. Hopefully they see this as a must-win.
Warriors +3.5 (1st half only), 1.5 units: The Warriors are due for some positive regression and with LAL on deck Monday, they could easily be looking at a 6 game losing streak if they’re not careful. Curry and company won’t be intimidated by the West-leading Jazz and they’re at home with 2 days to prepare. I think this is close at least in the 1st half.
76ers -4 (-110), 1.5 units: Seems like Philadelphia can plug and play anyone and still run away with big victories lately. That’s been especially impressive in their road victories. The 76ers will be without Embiid today but Simmons is back and Philly has a 16-3 home record. LeMarcus Aldridge is out today too, so it’s not like San Antonio is firing on all cylinders. The Spurs are a mid-tier team at best and Philly should take care of business at the Wells Fargo Center. Let’s not overcomplicate things.
Hawks -6 (-110), 1.5 units: Rut row– are the Hawks on the mend now after the All-Star break? Atlanta has now won four in a row and they’re creeping up as almost a top 10 team in point differential (right now they sit at #11 with a +.08). The Hawks are healthy, under new management, and they’re at home. Cleveland can be feisty but I have to favor the Hawks to win by more than 2 possessions. They’re 2nd quarter comeback and then effective dismantling of the Kings last night was impressive.
Blazers -4.5 (-110), 1.5 units and Blazers/T-Wolves over 234 (-110), 2 units: Check out my write up from yesterday— I have no reason to believe this won’t happen again. I’ll play less units on Portland since Minnesota matched up and played surprisingly well last night. The Blazers should have covered, though. Again, with the pace and lackluster defenses that these teams display, I don’t know why this total sits at under 240. Automatic over play for me.
Lean, Pelicans +6 (-110): Why do I have a sneaky feeling the Pelicans will show up and play really good basketball tonight? They’re so volatile and I hate betting on them lately so this is just a lean, but on paper and even against LAC’s stars, Zion in a high tempo offense is a mismatch for most teams. They’re at home and need an impressive win. Hmm…
I have a crazy day today and the clocks going up an hour here on the east coast doesn’t help any. These write-ups will be shorter than usual for that reason– appreciate all the support and viewership throughout this wild week of college hoops! Coming off a sweet 4-2 Saturday, let’s keep winning!
LSU 1st half +3.5 (-110), 1.5 units: I can see Bama asserting themselves and covering the full game number at 6, but LSU has been on fire (and they look like the team I was hoping to bet on so many times before) and I think they take that momentum into the 1st half. LSU can score with anyone, especially as of late, and they have a huge revenge angle here since the Crimson Tide bested them twice in regular season play.
Cincinnati/Houston under 135 (-110), 1 unit: The Bearcats don’t have a great offense, though they do play at a high tempo. Houston plays at one of the slowest tempos in the country, however, and should be able to control this game with their methodical defense and well-timed offensive attack. I’d be surprised if Cincinnati makes it over 50 points and with a line like -13 on the Cougars, there should be enough margin to prevent excessive free throw attempts. Give me the under.
Ohio State +6 (-110), 1.5 units: I really, really love the way Illinois is playing but the Buckeyes are playing as confident as ever. It’s hard to imagine either team preventing the other from maintaining close distance. This should be a close game in the 1st half that opens up in the second but it’ll be a back and forth battle. Illinois is really good, but are the more than 2 possessions good over an elite Big 10 team in the conference final? I don’t think so. Take the dog and the points.
Jan 19, 2021; Baton Rouge, Louisiana, USA; LSU Tigers forward Shareef O'Neal (R) guards Alabama Crimson Tide forward Darius Miles (L) during the second half at Pete Maravich Assembly Center. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports
Happy Selection Sunday everyone!
LSU vs Alabama -6 O/U 157
And then there were 2. Both of these teams really faced some adversity over this SEC tournament with LSU down to Mississippi 3/4 into their first game and Alabama down double digits in the second half to Tennessee only to come back and win it. Both teams play extremely fast with LSU ranking 27th in seconds per possession and Alabama ranking number 2 at 14.1 seconds per possession. The reason that this total isn’t 170+ points is that Alabama’s defense ranks number 1 in the league and LSU has stepped their defense up recently. LSU is the better shooting team at 53.1% FG to Bama’s 51.3%. Both teams focus on offensive rebounds much more then defensive boards. Looking at this spread, I think that it is a tad bit high for this caliber game. Both teams will be very motivated here and if anything, LSU has shown that they can hang with the best teams in the SEC with two wins vs Arkansas, ole miss and one against Tennessee. Alabama beat this LSU team handily the two times that they have played but LSU’s rebounder Darious Days was out one of those games and only had played 15 minutes in their first matchup due to foul trouble. I’ll take LSU + the points here and I think Alabama wins 80-75.
The Tigers come into this game ranked 6th in the NCAA in points per possession at 120.1 points per 100 possessions. Defensively they are not all there. They are currently ranked 136th in points per possession. Giving up 99.9 points per 100 possessions, and that number is higher against SEC opponents at 105.1. They are coming off last nights game where they had to scratch and claw their way out of there against Ole Miss.
Arkansas and Eric Musselman’s team comes into this game ranked 34th in points per possession on offense, and 16th in the country on defense. They limit and destroy their opponents on the boards. The only allow an offensive rebounding rate of 28%. They come into this game after handling business last night against The Missouri Tigers.
As I just said Arkansas smothers their opponents on rebounding and plays a solid defense. LSU is ranked one of the lowest teams in offensive rebounds, and have a substantially low turnover rate. This mean if shots are not falling they are gonna have limited possessions which is going to be hard for them to get some scoring in. Arkansas is one of the hottest teams in the country, and they are so balanced on both ends of the floor. LSU is going to have to shoot their way to a win tonight, and that is not going to happen against this Arkansas defense.
Kevin Porter Jr. is the reason the Rockets covered last night but that was still a bad beat. The kid looks good, though. Is there anything worse than a star player’s injury status updated just minutes before a game? Cough, Embiid. Cough, annoying. Onto my picks:
Nets -11 (-110), 1.5 units: I guess the Pistons have a chance here. At times Detroit plays with a fiery mentality that keeps them in or wins them games. The reality is, the Pistons are a bad basketball team that ranks in the bottom 3rd in defensive efficiency, plays at an insufferable pace, and only scores 107.8 ppg. The blitzkrieg offense that is the Brooklyn Nets, who lead the league in scoring and play at a top 10 pace, will overwhelm the Pistons on their home floor. I hate to put an asterisk on so many of these games but that’s the modern day NBA. I’m sure Kyrie and Harden will play tonight, there’s no signs they won’t, but if they sit this bet is off. Nets should win this in a blowout.
Blazers -5 (-105), 2 units and Blazers/T-Wolves over 234 (-110), 2 units: I’ve been waiting for a spot like this and now we have it. I’ll keep this short. Minnesota returns home after a great performance against the up and down Pelicans, a game where they literally couldn’t miss from beyond the arc. The Blazers are coming off a home loss to the elite Suns, though they very nearly got the W and led throughout the contest. I don’t care that Minnesota is at home- they’re a horrible defensive team and they play with pace- that feeds right into the Portland’s winning formula. Lillard, Gary Trent Jr., Kanter and Covington will have their way with the porous Minnesota defense. Oh and this total is way too low. Use this combo as a parlay or two separate bets, but I love both of these angles to hit. Portland rights the ship tonight and we see plenty of 60+ point quarters.
Nuggets win (-125), 1.5 units: I know Denver just played last night but this is a better spot than one might think and they’re clearly a better team than Dallas. The return of Paul Millsap back to their roster will only mean positive things moving forward. Coach Michael Malone will ease him back in – he only played 22 minutes last night – but Millsap is a significant aid on the defensive end and brings a lot of battle-tested experience to a young Denver lineup. Dallas is on the second leg of a short road trip but coming off a bad loss to OKC where they got caught feeling a little too fat and sassy. It’s the ongoing narrative of the modern day NBA; high emotions and trap spots. Denver won’t get trapped tonight. Jokic brings a calculated energy to his team and carries their younger stars when necessary. The favorite is at home and will get a nice break tomorrow after this game. Expect the Nuggets to keep their win streak going tonight.
To be honest, there should be a 187 on this fight card if you ask me. I searched and couldn’t find much value but here in the main event. This fight should be an interesting one. Both fighters seem pretty hungry to me but the price really says that Edwards wins this fight. Edwards is 29 years old and 18-3 in MMA. His only losses were by decisions or DQ and his last one was way back in 2015 to the current champion Kamaru Usman. He is hoping for a rematch soon and this fight might get him there. Bilal Muhammed is kind of a badass himself at 18-3 and 32 years old but he hasn’t faced the same competition as Edwards. Bilal has only been knocked out once is his career and has never been submitted as well. The Obvious thing for me in this fight is the over 4.5 rounds at -200. You could take the distance at -190 but I’d personally rather pay the 10 cents to get out of the last 2.5 minutes of this fight. Edwards has went the distance 11 times in his 21 fights including 5 out of his last 6. He would rather win that way than expose himself. Muhammed has went to decision 15 times out of his 21 fights including 7 times out of his last 8. There is only 1 play for me.
I know I know, everyone loves Leon Edwards. I do too, I promise. According to many experts, Leon is the most underrated and dangerous commodity in the UFC. He enters tonight on an 8 fight win streak and he’s defeated some of the best Welterweights in the world: Rafael dos Anjos, Gunnar Nelson, and a younger Donald Cerrone. His only loss since 2015? Kamaru Usman. Usman will be a UFC Hall of Famer and may be one of the best UFC fighters of all time when the dust settles. Not a bad loss for Leon. Still, I like the underdog tonight. Why? In short, I’m worried that Edwards’ long layoff might hurt him and he may underestimate Muhammad. Hence, I see value on the dog. And we like value.
Posting the same record as Edwards at 18-3 overall, Belal Muhammad is on a tear right now and at age 32, it’s obvious he’s in his prime. He’s also HUNGRY. The sunglass wearing “Remember the Name” Muhammad just fought a month ago, dominating Dhiego Lima, a skilled striker who had a significant reach advantage and came into UFC 258 on a 3-fight win streak. Many thought he would be solid competition for Muhammad. Not so much. Belal made Lima look silly. Belal maintained a suffocating distance, showed great defensive tactics, and hit on 136 significant strikes. His attack was constant. Muhammad fights at a relentless pace akin to Max Holloway and he’s as skilled a grappler as he is a striker. It’s reasonable to say that Leon Edwards hasn’t seen a fighter quite like Muhammad.
In my heart, I want Leon Edward to win. He’s still one of the hottest prospects in the UFC and he deserves to reassert himself as one of the Welterweight’s top contenders. The long layoff and cancelled fights weren’t his fault. I would also love an Edwards/Usman rematch. But if we’re talking smart wagering and finding value, it lies with Muhammad. There’s a reason the total on this fight going the distance is set at -190. Historically, both fighters let their battles go to the score cards, though Belal was awfully aggressive in his last fight. Edwards likes to pick his spots and methodically beat his opponents. If anything, a bet on Muhammad within distance has a higher chance of hitting, and those odds are +500.
In summation, I love taking an underrated fighter at + money who’s hungry and coming with a ton of momentum. Edwards better not take Muhammad lightly.
Oklahoma State's Cade Cunningham (2) and Isaac Likekele (13) celebrate during the second half of the college men's basketball game between the Oklahoma State Cowboys and the Arkansas Razorbacks at Gallagher-Iba Arena in Stillwater, Okla., Saturday, Jan. 30, 2021. Cowboys beat Arkansas 81-77. Photo by Sarah Phipps, The Oklahoman
Ohio vs Buffalo -2.5 O/U 156
Return of the MAC. The MAC championship game that is. The Ohio Bobcats are playing some great ball right now beating Toledo and Kent State but let’s face it, this team doesn’t play much defense. The Bobcats rank 237th in the league allowing 44.9% shooting while the Bulls has stepped up to the plate on D allowing a 59th best 41.1% shooting. Ohio does edge Buffalo in shooting percentage by 1 percentage point but who is going to clean up the boards? Buffalo averages 44.1 rebounds per game while Ohio averages 34.8. That is a massive discrepancy. The Bobcats shoot a lot of 3 pointers but the Bulls average a 3rd best in the NCAA allowing only 27.5% FG percentage from deep. Buffalo is a fast pace dribble drive type offense but they really do not turn over the ball much which is a nice rarity for faced pace teams. Gonna take the Bulls here in the short favorite roll.
Buffalo -2.5 – 2 stars
Oklahoma State vs Texas -2 O/U 144.5
Are we sure that the right team is favored here? Oklahoma state has only defeated West Virginia and Baylor by playing very solid basketball down the stretch. Texas is a very good team that got a nice little break with Kansas’s Covid issues but that to me doesn’t mean that they have some big advantage in this game. Texas is the better offensive team due to their 3 point shooting but Oklahoma State defends it well only allowing 31.5% to go in. As far as overall FG% the edge goes to Oklahoma State 46.6% to 45.2%. Free throws and rebounds are about equal. Texas edges in turnovers and Oklahoma State edges in defense. The biggest thing for me here is that these Oklahoma State stats do not factor in Isaac Likekele for about 6 games and Cade Cunningham for 3 games. The Pokes are finally healthy now. I think that Oklahoma State wins this game but I will gladly take the 2 points which is the second most common difference in final scores in mens basketball games.
