18-6 in College football last week and ready to dig in Week 4! We have a great show for you today! Kiev O’Neil @thepublicdog goes over some free picks and sharp line movements. Then Eddie Owens @eddiehaswinners comes in to break down thoughts on the big 12 and some of his free plays. Last we have Doug Upstone @vegasproinsider to bring us some value to NFL week 3!
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Rutgers has been down right unimpressive this season coming off back to back blowout loses 52-3 against Ohio St and 55-14 and Kansas. Yes the Kansas Jayhawks which many people pegged as a bottom feeder of FBS . Buffalo is 3-0 and 2-1 ATS barely missing a 44 point cover. Sitkowski who isRutgers True Freshmen quarterback has been going through some growing pains 33/67 on the season with 1 TD and 7 interceptions.On the Flip side Tyree Jackson has almost 800 yards and an impressive 12-1 TD to Int Ratio. The Bulls should be able to get turnovers and quality field possession as they are +6 in turnovers compared to -9 for the Scarlet Knights. Buffalo barely missed a bowl last season and with Army on deck. They know every win counts going into conference play. Line opened -3 still value at the -6
Wisconsin vs. Iowa
Wisconsin lost to BYU this past week and kissed their National Championship dreams away. I don’t think they want to destroy their chances of a New Years 6 Bowl in week 4 of the College Football season. Wisconsin is going to rely on one thing at this Hornibrook handing it off to Taylor. Iowa is only giving up roughly 60 yards per game on the ground however they haven’t seen a back like Taylor yet. They faced running backs from NIU, Northern Iowa and Iowa St to open up the season. This game opened up at -5 in the game of the year lines. I think the BYU loss was a reality checkfor Wisconsin and believe they will be focused on Saturday. Give me Wisconsin up to -5.
Lessons learned concept on black blackboard with coffee cupt and paper plane
18-6 Last week! Crushed it! Brings us to 31-24 overall in college football and up 6 units overall!
Alabama, Ohio State and Georgia are the 3 best teams right now and it isn’t close
Boston College vs Wake Forest
Wow does wake play fast. They average 102 plays per game after a 3 game sample size! We were on the BC side and over on this baby Wonder how many people will catch on to this but not a bad idea to go hard on early line overs…
Georgia State vs Memphis – Wow did Memphis easily cover the 29 points in Fridays game. They were up 28 at half. We didn’t bet this but I wish i did because Memphis had every right to run up the score after losing the week before to Navy. Memphis had 679 yards this game. Wow
Troy vs Nebraska – I missed this bet when the Nebraska QB Martinez was listed as out. They could get nothing going against this hungry Troy defense and the Huskers Defense looked alot like last year. Nebraska was slightly better in the second half than Troy but not quite good enough. Our under 6.5 season win total looking pretty good.
Florida State vs Syracuse – Wow these teams are undisciplined. I should have bet the over in penalties!!!! What an ugly game. Lots of bets went to the over.
Georgia Southern vs Clemson – Well we said we needed 1 TD from Georgia southern to cover 34 and it happened. Clemson rolls by 31. No suprises
Maryland, Nebraska, Rutgers, Wisconsin, Purdue, Northwestern. Just Horrible
Vandy vs Notre Dame – Nailed that under but wow why fair catch that last punt???
Boise State vs OK state – Glad we bought back on this game. 2 punt blocks because Boise not used to punting apparently. They will be after today because OK state dominated them bad
BYU vs Wisconsin – Everything went right for BYU and Wisconsin looked vanilla. Terrible play calling. Predictable. Can’t throw the ball. Looked green. They may get better but they are not a top 15 team this year at this point….
Alabama vs Ole Miss – Alabama is the best team in football. Man I really hate saying that…
Ohio State vs TCU – We bought back on Ohio state and middled this one. Most of TCU’s first half yards were due to 1 huge play. Watching this game you could tell that the Buckeyes were going to win.
ASU vs San Diego State- Took San diego State state last night as a premium play. Let down spot for ASU and it paid off. The last few minutes of the game had 2 of the worst targeting/spearing defensive plays called and then reversed back to normal. I have never seen targeting so obvious yet reversed. Such a strange game these days.
Let down spots:
BYU vs McNeese State (Angry)
Texas hosting TCU
Oklahoma State hosting Texas Tech
LSU hosting LA Tech
Washington hosting ASU
Ohio State hosting Tulane (OSU is injured)
San Diego State hosting Eastern Michigan
Akron going to Iowa State
Troy at Louisiana Monroe
Get up spots:
Iowa State hosting Akron
Wisconsin at Iowa
Wake forest hosting Notre Dame
Purdue hosting Boston College
Baylor hosting Kansas
Auburn hosting Arkansas
Michigan State at Indiana (MSU after a Bye week)
ASU vs Washington
Look ahead spots:
Ohio State looking past Tulane to Penn State
Penn State looking past Illinois to Ohio State
Notre Dame looking past Wake Forest to Stanford
Clemson looking past Georgia Tech to Syracuse (revenge)
Va Tech looking past Old Dominion to Duke is possible
LeSean McCoy – Ribs but not fractured. Week to week
Joe Mixon is out 3-4 weeks. Arthroscopic Surgury on his Knee
Melvin Gordon – Upper Body
Mike Wallace – Terrible ankle injury
Waiver Pickups:
Ted Ginn – My sleeper player of last week had 123 yards, a TD and a 2 point conversion. 24 fantasiy points on 1/2 PPR
Blake Bortles – Man he made me look bad
Josh Gordon – Patriots just signed him
Mark Walton – Mixon Injury will get some touches
Ryan Fitzpatrick – Dude is on fire with 820 yards so far but will he freeze out like he has in the past?
Jessee James – If you need a tight end
Tyler Boyd – 9 targets 1 TD is huge
John Brown – 10 atargets 92 yards 1 TD. Maybe Baltimore’s best WR?
Donte Moncrief – 9 Targets and a TD. WoW
Javorious Allen – 7 Targets
Marcus Murphy – Shady’s back up
Austin Eckler – Melvin Gordon’s back up
Antonio Callaway – Browns Wideout is a beast
Will Disley – Seattle Tight End
Break out players:
Jordan Howard vs that bad AZ defense
Patrick Mahomes just because how can you not?
Ryan Fitzpatrick vs Pitts Defense
Marcus Murphy vs Vikings if RB is needed
James white vs Detroit’s worst run defense
Mohamed Sanu vs Saints defense
Pierre Garcon vs Kansas City’s terrible Defense
Robert Woods vs the chargers defense
Busts:
David Johnson vs the Bears Defense
Sleeper this week is JOHN BROWN from the Baltimore Ravins vs that terrible Denver team. Now Denver hasn’t played anyone yet cause the Raiders and Seahawks are not good and they still are 11th worst against the pass
18-6 in College Football last weekend and Kiev O’Neil recaps the games. He then discusses Big 10 Power ratings, let down spots, get up spots, and look ahead spots for College Football week 4! DNasty @Dnasty#1 is back to break down Fantasy Football week 3. We discuss the usual injuries, waver wire, break-outs, busts and week 4 sleepers.
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For 17 weeks out of the year, Mondays don’t suck. This is one of those Mondays.
This week the Seahawks travel to Chicago in a strong week 2 match up. Last week it looked like the Bears were going to coast to the win with a 17-0 lead going into halftime and superstar Aaron Rodgers getting carted to the locker room with an apparent knee injury. Well, the Bears learned that Aaron Rodgers is not a human as he came out firing on all cylinders and led an improbable comeback win against their division rivals with a final score of 24-23. In regards to the Bears, the defense looked very good despite allowing three passing touchdowns in the second half and missed out on some key opportunities. Khalil Mack showed why he is worth $141 million dollars with a sack, forced fumble, fumble recovery, and interception for a touchdown in his first game as a Bear. His presence immediately makes this defense better and they got pressure on the quarterback all night.
For the Seahawks, the main key to this game will be getting the run game established to take some pressure off of Russell Wilson. Wilson was flushed out of the pocket and was forced to make plays way too often. Chicago ranked 12th in 2017 in quarterback pressures at a rate of 30.9% of all passing plays. It’s easy to assume that number will be closer to 40% this season with the addition of All-Pro Khalil Mack and standout rookie Smith.
It looks like there will be a running back committee for Seattle as Carson and Penny each had 7 rushes. One of them will have to step up and take pressure off of Wilson in order for them to win. Chris Carson had the better game with 51 yards but neither wound up in the end zone.
In the end I think that Russell Wilson has a solid bounce back game but it’s not enough against this tough defense. It will be a low scoring game but the Bears will come out on top by a field goal so I’m taking the Seahawks +4.5 and the Under at 42.5 for 1 unit plays each.
Side Note:
This Saturday was one of the best handicapping days in my career. I went 14-4 overall and 6-2 on my MattyLewMoneyline picks (1-1 on picks I posted on the site). Including a +12500 parlay (Thanks for paying rent).
To see all my picks, follow me @mattylewpicks or email me directly at mattylewpicks@gmail.com
Now I know how pissed off everyone is at Georgia tech from last week losing to South Florida but you really need to look what happened in the game. South Florida scored 2 first quarter kick off returns for TDs. There was a huge disparity in the total yards with Georgia tech gaining 602 yards to South Florida’s 426. The Yellow Jackets should have won this game. On the other hand Pittsburgh has been dreadful. They played a Tomato Can in Albany the first week and got blown out at home vs Penn State 6-51. Pittsburgh ran the ball well but could not get the passing game going throwing only 55 yards. Georgia tech should be able to stack the box here to stop Pitt from rushing. I also like that Georgia tech was able to throw the ball a little with Taquon Marshall throwing 189 yards vs South Florida. I am playing against the Georgia Tech loss over reaction. Georgia Tech wins by 10.
Georgia tech -4
Boston College vs Wake Forest +5
Boston College came into this season with major steam. Starting QB Anthony Brown is living up to expectations with a 74% completion percentage and 4 TDs. Now they haven’t really played anyone yet but they are 2-0 vs the spread and Umass was supposed to be decent this year. The Wake Forest Demon Deacons have opened their season with two consecutive wins which included a 51-20 home win against tomato can Towson last week to improve to 2-0. Sam Hartmen played well in the victory getting 242 passing yards with two touchdowns but I do not think that will happen against Boston College’s tough Defensive line. What is key here is Boston College’s great offensive line vs a very injured wake forest. Wake already has 4 guys out for the season and 6 guys questionable for Thursdays game including starting secondary Cameron Glenn and Amari Henderson. I like Boston College by 9
Boston College -5
Ohio State vs TCU +13
Do you like home dogs? Especially a double digit one? Now don’t get me wrong, I think Ohio State may be the second best team in the nation but how do we really know that? They so far have really played anybody but the worst team in the Pac 12 and the second worst team in the Big 10. Now before the season started I may have favored the Buckeye’s here by 2 tds or more but after watching a little TCU, i saw a team that has some serious athletes. The Buckeye’s have had problems with dual threat Quarterbacks in the past. They do not see many of them in the Big 10. You saw this vs Deshawn Watson a few years back but mainly they are finally playing a very good team that has seen some amazing offenses in the Big 12. TCU’s Quarterback Shawn Robinson looks very good so far and I think it could really test this Buckeye’s defense. TCU also returns 61% of a top big 12 defense last year and is currently in the top 10 allowing only 214 yards per game to Ohio State’s 261. The fact this game is in Arlington should give TCU a 2 point home crowd advantage. If you take out the Urban Meyer factor I have to say TCU has the coaching edge here as well. I see this game playing out like TCU winning at the half and Ohio State having to catch up and win in the 4th quarter. Ohio State by 9.
TCU +13
Boise State vs Oklahoma State -3.5
Ok, we all saw Boise State beat Oregon in the bowl game right? That is why we were high on them coming into the season. What we didn’t see is the broncos busting into the top 20 this quickly and it is pretty well deserved how they took care of business at Troy and at home first UCONN. Averaging 6.9 yards per run and a 216 passing rating is phenomenal even against bad teams and Troy ain’t that bad by the way. Oklahoma State on the other hand has also taken care of their business beating down the scrubs of the south but they are very inexperienced when playing good teams. What this game comes down to is Boise State’s returning production and QB experience. Brett Rypien from the Broncos has played in multiple big games. Taylor Cornelius has not. Broncos by 3
Boise State +3.5 and ML
New Mexico vs New Mexico State +6.5 PREMIUM
LSU vs Auburn -10
LSU has had a great start beating up on Miami and Auburn has had a great start beating Washington but seriously, how different are these teams? LSU seems to have finally has picked up some swagger with new Quarterback Joe Burrow while their defense has been only allowing 1.9 yards per run and 4.11 yards per play. Auburn on the other hand still has Jerrod Stidham and a very good defense allowing only 2.2 yards per rush and 4.67 yards per play. I have to still go back to the fact that Auburn only returned 1 offensive lineman and will face a much better Dave Aranda defense. I Like Auburn by 6 points here
LSU +10
Alabama vs Ole Miss +19.5 Premium play
Ball State vs Indiana +14.5 Premium play
Tuland vs UAB +4 Premium Play
S. Florida vs Illinois O/U 59 Premium Play
Notre Dame vs Vanderbilt O/U 52
Ok, so we know that Notre Dame beat Michigan and the next week had a let down vs Ball State only scoring another 24 points. Was this a let down or is Notre Dame now a defensive team? I mean, Wimbush’s Passer rating is very low this year at 119 and they are only rushing 2.8 yards per carry this year and only put up 119 vs Ball state last week. On the other hand Vandy hasn’t played anybody big yet but their defense is stopping the run and the pass allowing only 3.97 yards per play. Notre Dame allows about the same at 3.95 yards per play due to that monster defense that stopped the wolverines and I do not see a lot of scoring from either side.
Under 52
Eastern Michigan vs Buffalo -5
I am still riding the Buffs on their 9-3 ATS. 10-3 now vs FBS opponents the last 13 games. Buffalo coach Lance Leopold won 5 division championships in 8 years in division 3 football at UW whitewater Now they get an eastern Michigan team at home that is going to have a LET DOWN spot after beating an overrated Purdue. Purdue had 60 more yards than eastern Michigan as well and fumbled this game away. Eastern Michigan is also allowing 7 yards per rush this year. I like Buffalo by 7 points
Buffalo -5
MORE PICKS!
Georgia Southern +34 vs Clemson
Texas -3 vs USC in a revenge spot
Boston College vs Wake Forest over 53.5
Syracuse +3.5 and ML Sprinkle vs Florida State
NFL WEEK 2
Kansas City vs Pittsburgh -5
A huge congrats to KC for doing what they do best against their divisional opponent but something really smelled about this game. No Joey Bosa, a kickoff return TD and the fact that Kansas City was outgained by 185 yards and won this game due to turnovers and big plays. The fact that the Steelers came out with a tie should motivate this team because they actually out-gained Cleveland at Cleveland by 120 yards and had 7 sacks. I am still going with the Narrative that Kansas City does not have a defense and even with no Laveon Bell, I have Pittsburgh winning this game by 7 points.
Steelers -5
New England vs Jacksonville +2
Many people here believe that this is a revenge spot for Jacksonville and for what Brady did to them last year it should be. Trust me, It’s not! I think this was more of a wake up call for New England and they should not have won that game last year. I really do not like Jacksonville’s Quarterback and I really do not like the fact that Leonard Fournette is banged up. Jacksonville lost many skill positions last year already with Hurns, Robinson, and Mercedes Lewis. I am going to go with the Patriots being 5-2 ATS as an away favorite from last year. Pats by 4
New England -2
Eagles vs Tampa Bay +3.5
Tampa bay had an amazing win last week vs Division rival the Saints. Ryan Fitzpatrick looked like a hall of famer with a 156 QBR rating 417 yards and 4 TDs. The Saints on the other hand did well but were minus 2 on the turnover margin and that pretty much sums up the 10 point loss. Almost a suprise that they only lost by 8 points. Now Tampa bay comes home fat and happy but still has to play the Superbowl team with the best back up QB in Nick Foles. This looks to me like a Trap line opening up at 3.5 and I do not think at Fitzpatrick can do what he did again against a very legit and opportune Eagles defense that thrives on turnover prone Quarterbacks like Fitz. It wasn’t that long ago that Tampa Bay had the worst defense in the NFL. Ryan Fitzpatrick is 1-10 straight up after a win and 1-9-1 ATS. I like the Eagles here and by 7 points.
Eagles -3.5
Miami at New York Jets +1.5 (now -3)
I took the Jets +1.5 right before the lions played them so i am locked in but at -3 it is still a small play. The Jets are a much more confident team under Sam Darnold and it showed not only in the preseason but also last game. I think that John Morton is an underrated OC and has learned a lot when he was in New Orleans under Sean Payton. Miami is a huge fade team for me especially after last week beating a bad Tennessee team without Mariota.
Jets +1.5 or 1/2U on -3
Houston vs Tennessee +2
The Titans have lost Delainey Walker and are very banged up. Houston on the other hand did lose a starting tackle in Seantrel Henderson but at this point I think that they can bounce back and get a W with all the talent that they have.
After a successful week 2 and a long vacation we cover our Big 10 Power ratings & sharp line movement. Kiev O’Neil @thepublicdog then gives us his week 3 college football picks and brings in Cub Fan Danny @cubfandanny to discuss NFL week 2 plays!
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How’s it going OddsBreakers fans? I’m new to the site and am happy to share my big moneyline plays for this week’s upcoming college matchups.
USC vs Texas: A lot to digest here as the Trojans just had a big loss to one of the premier teams of the PAC12 in Stanford. A lot of people aren’t giving Stanford the credit they deserve as their defense came up huge against USC. Although they couldn’t put up too many points, USC’s defense showed up and is the key to their entire season with 6 returning starters. The Longhorns are 1-1 and 0-2 ATS. They were 21 point favorites last week and squeaked by a weak Tulsa team who was ranked 111 in the preseason rankings. USC shuts down an inconsistent Sam Ehlinger and wins by more than 2 touchdowns
USC ml +145 (1u)
N Texas vs Arkansas: This is not the North Texas team you might have heard of over the past 10 years, this team is for real. In 2017 The Mean Green went 9-5 (7-1) and have Quarterback Mason Fine along with 16 other starters that went to the C-USA championship game. Arkansas, on the other hand, is trending downward. The Razorbacks lost on the road to a below average team in Colorado State and gave up 20 points at home to FCS team Eastern Illinois, who lost to Illinois State by more points this week than they did to Arkansas. Arkansas is in full rebuild and are in for a rude awakening in Fayetteville this week. I mean when you bet on a team named The Mean Green, you’re winning money.
