This Dayton team is coming off one of their worst performances this year vs Duquesne. The Duke’s couldn’t miss a shot the whole first half while Dayton started at 0-11 from 3 point land. Dayton just could not get back in the game and ended up losing by 5, but game this should be a bounce back spot for them at home. Dayton ranks 26th in shooting percentage at 48% and they shoot the 3 pretty well normally at 35%. George Mason only ranks 214th in shooting percentage this year while on defense they are allowing 46.6% shooting on the road. I like Dayton here at home in the bounce back after that brutal Duquesne game.
The prevailing phrase you’ve heard over and over again leading up to Super Bowl Sunday is, “Yea but, Kansas City has Patrick Mahomes.” It’s hard to argue. Mahomes is the best football player in the world right now and if you pick the Chiefs at -3 solely on that angle, no one would blame you. The Chiefs are capable of hitting a gear in a way we’ve never seen before. The “Greatest Show on Turf ” Rams, the dominant Brady years in New England or the Joe Montana years in San Francisco, and maybe the Favre-led Green Bay Packers compare, but the Chiefs are young, fast, and they have the most creative play-caller and the most dynamic quarterback talent in the NFL. In our collective minds, as fans and critics, that combination puts Kansas City in another stratosphere.
What the Chiefs don’t have is Tom Brady. The 6-time Super Bowl winning quarterback has defied the odds, again. I won’t go over any of the astounding factoids that accompany Brady’s accomplishments but few pundits or “experts” predicted Tom-terrific would be right back in the big dance, 1 year into his new stint. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are full of talent and, in my opinion, are a more complete team than Kansas City. Their defense can blitz the QB and shut down the run, they have a very solid special teams unit, and their offense can hang with and often easily outscores its opponents. I mean, Antonio Brown is their third WR… that’s insane.
I’ve heard way too many sharps and sports media figureheads talking about Brady’s 3 interceptions in the NFC Conference game. I can’t emphasize enough what a misnomer that point is. Did Brady make a few mistakes? Sure (although you could argue 2/3 of those INTs weren’t his fault). But here’s what’s lost: Brady is at his absolute best when it matters most. He came out on fire and led Tampa to a TD on the very first drive. He hit Scotty Miller with that absolutely massive touchdown pass on 4th down from midfield to end the first half. He made big first down after big first down, keeping the ball out of Rodger’s hands with long, methodical drives. And it wasn’t Bruce Arians. It damn sure wasn’t the play-calling of Byron Leftwich. It was Brady’s execution. Brady didn’t need to be perfect in the second half, and he knew it. The Bucs maintained a 2-score lead. Critics downplay intangibles, but it’s the intangibles and big-game situations that Brady executes better than any other QB in football, and it’s why he keeps putting himself back in these big games. And now we know– he didn’t need the Patriots to do it.
I’m a huge fan of Mahomes and the Chiefs and I love their style of play, but that’s too easy a take. The Bucs will be the first team ever playing a Super Bowl on their home turf. You think that doesn’t help the nerves of Tampa’s young players? You bet it does. In addition and flying under the radar is the fact that the Chiefs have now lost 3 starting offensive linemen this year. Creativity will help, but going against Shaq Barrett and JPP and company won’t be easy with a less-experienced operation protecting Mahomes.
The line at KC -3 is as sharp as it gets, but I can’t dismiss what Brady does in big-game situations. When the pressure is high he’ll refuse to lose, just like he’s done his whole career. I think it’s very likely that Super Bowl LV will come down to the final possession. There’s a 14.5% probability that a football game is decided by 3 points. I will be all over Tampa Bay +3.5 if and when it’s available. I’ll take the Bucs at +3 if I’m forced to, for less units. Here are all my favorite bets for the big game:
– Bucs +3.5 or higher (waiting on this number), 3 units
– Bucs +3, 2 units – 1st Half under 27.5 (-110), 1.5 units – Live over bet if/when the game starts slow, 1-2 units depending on the total – Tom Brady to throw over 300 passing yards (-114), 2 units
I went 3-0 last night in college hoops, making me 8-7 in CBB overall this week. Let’s keep that record way over .500 as we soar into Super Bowl weekend!
Rice -4 (-105), 1 unit: This is a 3:00 EST start time so put your bet in now if you like my side! It doesn’t get much worse than Southern Mississippi. This line should be higher, but Rice is coming into this contest on a 5-game slump, so naturally that gives the books a little pause when they consider just how many points they should be favored. We expect some positive regression for the Owls. Rice is an above average offensive unit and they’re especially good beyond the 3-point line, ranking 60th in adjusted 3 point percentage on Haslametrics. Southern Mississippi is one of the worst offenses and 3 point defenses in the country, so this is a good matchup for the Owls to get off the schneid and put up a good performance. Rice is back home after a good 5 day rest, making this even better angle.
Bellarmine -8 (-115), 1.5 units: Bellarmine is getting better and better as the season progresses. The Knights have looked especially above-average on offense lately, shooting exceptionally from the field. In the last 3 games, Bellarmine has shot 60%, 57%, and 53.4%. While they can’t expect to keep that pace going for the rest of the year, they haven’t showed any signs of slowing down. Their opponents haven’t been the most staggering either, but their opponent today is on the same level of the ASUN Conference teams they’ve faced the past few weeks. Like a lot of teams right now, Jacksonville’s chances of making any sort of postseason run are slipping away, while Bellarmine is humming on a 6-game win streak. Jacksonville is about the same defensive rank as Stetson, a team that Bellarmine easily beat twice 2 weeks ago. Jacksonville is significantly worse than Stetson on offense, however, which I think is the difference today. Bellarmine will pull ahead at some point and I think they win by double digits.
Wright State -9.5 (-110), 1.5 units: I’m going to save us all some time here and just tell you that Wright State, at least from everything I’ve watched and read, is a significantly better team than UIC. The script here for those who like the dog is that IUC is a different team at home and they struggle on the road. Their home wins against Oakland back in December were impressive, but are we supposed to get excited about recent home wins against Robert Morris? Or a win against Youngstown State? Please. Do a little research into Wright State and in every single way, they’re far and away a much better team than the UIC Flames. Literally every single matchup favors the Raiders. I can’t go against that significant of a disparity, even in an in-conference game on the road.
Yours truly went 3-0 in college hoops and 2-1 in NBA picks last night. My only loss was on the Hawks +8, who announced Trae Young would sit about 30-45 min before tip-off. One has to wonder if I would have been 6-0 overall if not for that (yet another) bad beat, but I still can’t complain– we’re 8-3 in NBA bets on the week and trying to stay humble and keep grinding. Below are Friday’s picks and predictions!
Pacers -1.5 (-110), 1.5 units: The Pelicans have been performing better as of late, with contributions from Brandon Ingram and Lonzo Ball and Zion Williamson taking New Orleans to a new level when they’re hitting on all cylinders. Recent wins against the Suns and Bucks have been impressive, but the Pelicans are among the most inconsistent teams in the NBA. One day they play fast and aggressive, the next they’re methodical. In some contests they look like a top tier NBA team, with explosive players on both offense and defense. In other games they get throttled by average teams and seem dumbfounded in the process. On the other hand, we know what we’re going to get from the Pacers. Indiana is a balanced team. They’re #8 in scoring per game, a mid-tier defensive unit, and top 10 in overall point differential. Last time out the Pacers got annihilated in a game where I took the Bucks side because it was such a good spot. Now Indiana, after some much needed rest, is in a better spot returning back home from Milwaukee. Ultra-consistent contributors like Brogdon, Sabonis and Turner match up well against the Pelicans’ stars, and expect some positive regression from Jeremy Lamb, who didn’t reach double digit points for only the second time in his first nine games against the Bucks. I like the more rested, more consistent, and better-positioned Pacers to bounce back with a 5-7 point win tonight.
Nets -5 (-105), 2 units: If Freddie VanFleet scored 54 points every game, the Raptors would have one hell of an offense and would probably win a lot of games. Unfortunately that’s not a sustainable recipe for success. The total in this game is set at 242 at the moment (not a surprise, Lord knows), which suggests that the Raptors will have to, like all teams that face Brooklyn, score at the pace and with the efficiency that the Nets bring to the hardwood. The final minutes of the Nets/Clippers game proved how dangerous this team can be. Harden, and especially Durant and Kyrie, have 0 nerves at the end of regulation. They’re about as good as it gets at closing out a game. Even if teams stick with Brooklyn throughout a contest, it’s likely they’ll still be facing a wide-deficit in the final 3 minutes when the Nets hit their stride. I like Toronto and how they fight, and they’re not a team to sleep on against most of the Eastern Conference, but the Nets are beaming with confidence and I don’t think this game is close. Buyer Beware: This is only an official play if the Nets play all their stars, as expected. This line is coming down a little bit so I would wait until closer to game-time to bet it. Even if I get a bad beat, I’d rather spare your bet.
Bucks -10.5 (-110), 1.5 units: It feels like the Bucks are about to go on a run and I’ll look to take advantage. Cleveland is a solid enough team, full of young improving players like Collin Sexton, but when Milwaukee is hitting on all cylinders they’re really tough to beat. The Bucks looked returned to form 2 nights ago against a good Pacers team, out-pacing and scoring them throughout the contest. The Cavs tend to overperform and play their best basketball against inferior opponents. The Bucks are not one of those opponents. Neither are the Clippers, Lakers and Celtics, all of whom recently handed Cleveland losses by margin. The Cavs are 29th in the NBA in ppg and bottom 6 in the NBA in point differential. Not a great look when you’re up against the 2nd and 1st ranked team in those same categories. Milwaukee won’t be intimidated playing at Cleveland and it’s not a big-spotlight game where Giannis tends to get lost in the lights. I like the Bucks to win big.
T-Wolves/Thunder over 218 (-110), 1 unit: Minnesota has improved on defense recently but not by much. I wanted to go with the OKC side in a better spot tonight but the Thunder are just too inconsistent lately to back. Key defenders from both of these units are still sitting out and both of these squads can score a ton of points against the right defense. This is a bottom-feeder game where up and coming stars will look to shine and dish out big solo performances. This line should at least be over 223 by my estimation, so I’ll put a small play on the over.
We have a SUPER show for you today! Raphael Esparza from docsports.com and Mybookie.com comes on to break down some super bowl props including some of the ones that he created as a bookmaker! First, Kiev talks the big NFL trade between the Rams and the Lions as well as some college basketball betting spots based on shooting percentage, opponent free throw percentage, and opponent 3 point percentage. Next, Raphael comes on to discuss the big game and some of the factors that may influence the markets. When is the best time to bet these props? Which props are the most profitable for the books adn which are the most profitable for the bettors? We also get into some of the props that Raphael made himself. Then, Kiev and Raphael give out some prop plays for your Super Bowl betting pleasure! After that, Raphael and Kiev talk about some College Basketball games and plays for this huge weekend. Should you need any games broken down for next week, please tweet us @TheOddsBreakers. Have a wonderful weekend!
NFL: Tampa Bay vs Kansas City #Superbowl #SuperbowlLV
NCAA Basketball: Florida vs LSU – Wisconsin vs Illinois and more!
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2-1 last night in college hoops and we need a few more wins to get over .500 for the week. Let’s hope for another winning day on this Friday eve!
SIU Edwardsville -1 (-105), 1.5 units: This is a 2:00 EST start so my apologies for the close call here. Tennessee State and SIU Edwardsville are two relatively even teams, both pretty crappy in the national picture but the latter more respectable in the Ohio Valley Conference. Kyle Hunter pointed out SIU Edwardsville’s upcoming schedule in February and he’s right– boy is it brutal! It looks like the Cougars will play at least every other day throughout this next month and that will absolutely take its toll. To me that means the Cougars need to win when they’re in good position to do so and this is one of those spots. I usually love a revenge game and Tennessee State was bested on their home court last time against SIUE, but the Tigers are just a bad outfit and they have to be losing motivation at this point. Look at the January 21st box score between these two teams and the Tigers out-performed or did just as well than the Cougars in just about every category, and the Cougars still won. I think SIUE plays better today on their home court and secures an easier win before they inevitably get blasted by Belmont on Saturday.
Ohio State +5.5 (-105), 1 unit: This might be the spot where Iowa plays to their potential and blows out the Buckeyes, but I don’t trust what I’ve seen from them lately. Garza is a beast but the Hawkeyes are on a 0-3 ATS run and it shows– they went blow for blow with an inferior Michigan State team and lost against two above-average Big 10 teams they should have beaten– Indiana and Illinois. Is this a better spot for Iowa, who’s undoubtedly due for at least a little positive regression? Maybe. Or is it a better spot for an Ohio State team that seems to have found its rhythm riding a 3-game winning streak into this high-profile matchup? The Buckeyes have an exceptional offense and they’ve faced a tougher schedule thus far. I think they can certainly hang with the Hawkeyes and could even get the upset win. I love the way the Buckeyes play on both sides of the ball and I’m on the underdog in a closely fought, Big 10 battle.
Belmont -14 (-110), 1.5 units: Belmont sits atop of the Ohio Valley and looks to continue their undefeated conference streak today as they take on bottom-dweller Eastern Illinois. Last time out the Bruins out-paced the Panthers and won by 13 on their home court. Eastern Illinois turned the ball over 20 times but stayed in the game for most of the 1st and 2nd half thanks to great 3-point shooting, sinking long-balls at a clip of 44% compared to just 28.6% for Belmont. While Belmont didn’t play their best game, it was still an easy win and I expect another similar performance. To me this is another example of one team losing motivation day by day as their season floats away and another team who has no reason to take their foot off the pedal. Belmont is a significantly better team and they play at a tempo and offensive efficiency (ranked 51st on KenPom) that should overwhelm the Panthers earlier than the last contest. I’m on the favorite to cover.
The good energy continues as we’re 6-2-1 in NBA betting this week heading into Thursday night. One or two fewer bad beats and we’d be 8-1 but there’s no sense in crying over spilled milk, right? Right. Onto the next day, onto more winning!
Hawks +8 (-110), 1 unit: The Hawks are a good team that can’t seem to figure out how to win consistently at home. Dropping their last two on their home court to the Lakers (understandable) and then last night to the struggling Mavericks (due for a win), tonight they face another tough opponent at home as the surging Utah Jazz visit Atlanta. The Jazz are probably the better team on both sides of the ball, but this feels like a game where the Hawks should bring their best efforts in an effort to salvage recent failures. Their schedule gets a little easier so they won’t be looking forward to a next game, while the Jazz are at the start of a 3 game road-trip the next 4 days. Is there a chance that Utah blows out Atlanta? Sure. I think it’s much more likely that it’s a competitive game.
Warriors +2.5 (-105), 1.5 units: I’ll sprinkle some money-line action on Golden State but I love getting a few points here. The Mavericks are finally off the schneid after an unusually consistent offensive showing last night in Atlanta. Luka’s 27 and Porzingis’ 24 points helped, but it was a team effort and good for them– Dallas was definitely due for a little positive regression. They’re not as bad as they’ve looked the past month. That being said, would they be favored if they lost last night? Atlanta is a solid team but Dallas didn’t exactly shut down the Hawks– they just out-shot them, and barely. Normally the Mavericks would be favored against the Warriors in recent past, but I still don’t trust that, after 1 good game, the Mavericks are over their slump. Golden State can score in bunches and Steph Curry has been phenomenal this year– averaging over 41% from beyond the arc, 47% from the field, and over 28 ppg. There should be a lot of openings for Curry to get shots off tonight, and I like Draymond Green to at least somewhat stifle Dallas’ stars. I think this is a close game and more of a pick-em, so I have to favor the Warriors’ side. I’m not sure which way this line will move, but if it goes up to +3 or +4 on Golden State, this will be a 2 unit bet for me. I also lean over.
Rockets/Grizzlies under 223.5 (-110), 1.5 units: Houston and Memphis are in the bottom third in points per game and top 10 on defense in points allowed per game. In the last 10 games, both teams have improved on defense, allowing only 105.2 and 105.8 ppg, respectively. Houston’s showing last night was ugly, but I won’t overreact– they were due for a let-down game. This showdown has a UVA vs. Virginia Tech feel for me; who can defend better? John Wall was absent last night, which was part of Houston’s woes, but tonight it looks like Victor Oladipo will be out for “planned rest.” Last night it was obvious that Houston was trying to win with their defense, playing shorthanded without Wall, so I expect the same approach tonight. The Grizzlies have an anticipated 6 players out tonight, making their bench rather shallow these days, and are still missing key offensive players like Grayson Allen. This feels like a good setup for an under play.
James Madison -9 (-110), 1.5 units: The first game of the hump-day slate is Elon against James Madison in a classic battle of Colonial Athletic elite against conference dumpster-fire. JMU is far better than Elon in just about every category. They’re one of the best teams in college basketball in getting to the free throw line and Haslametrics rates JMU 41st in the nation in consistency– you get what you expect from the Dukes. They’re a high scoring, top 150 offense that loves to beat up on weaker in-conference foes. Elon is one of the worst teams in the country at second-chance scoring and they’re in the bottom 5th in the nation in adjusted offense according to KenPom. I don’t think 9 points is enough; JMU covers with ease.
LSU +8.5 (-110), 1 unit: Both LSU and Alabama are coming off disappointing losses, and maybe some think it’s an advantage spot for Bama at home, but I think it favors the Tigers. Last time these two faced, the Crimson Tide out-raced LSU and ended up blowing them out by 30 points at LSU’s home court. If you think that doesn’t add fire to this revenge spot, you would be wrong. LSU has a top 10, prolific offense that scores more per game than their opponent. Bama has a clear edge in adjusted defense (LSU ranks 146th, Alabama ranks 8th on KenPom), but I think the extra motivation will fire up the underdog and keep LSU in this contest. Don’t be surprised if the Tigers are ahead in the first half, too. When they’re fluid and confident, LSU can score at a lightning pace. This is a heated rivalry game where we have to throw some stats out the window– I expect Cameron Thomas and company to come out on fire and LSU to cover.
Virginia -6.5 (-110), 1.5 units: This is a spot play on Virginia after that huge, disappointing loss against Virginia Tech. The two titans of the this year’s ACC went head-to-head Saturday and VA-Tech out-shot, out-worked, and out-defended UVA. This can’t sit well with the Cavaliers. The Hokies shot 50% both from the field and from the 3-point line, procured more rebounds, and had 3 more blocks than UVA. NC State is an average opponent, but average won’t be enough tonight. This line actually makes me pause a bit because it feels way too low. Expect the Cavaliers to flex their muscles and reclaim their confidence atop the ACC; the Wolfpack just won’t win any of these matchups against a motivated UVA unit.
I’m 4-1 in NBA bets this week and should be 5-0 heading into Wednesday if it wasn’t for that insane 16 point final 55 seconds in the Clippers/Nets game (can you tell I’m still annoyed?). Let’s keep winning and putting more green paper in our wallets!
Bucks -8 (-110), 1 unit: The NBA can be understood in classes. At the top tier are teams like the Lakers, Clippers, 76ers, Nets, and the Bucks. The Pacers are a very solid team and we won good money betting on them in a great spot last night against Memphis. Now the Pacers are traveling to Milwaukee off that big win and they’re running into a Bucks team that just got off the schneid and should be rested, more confident, and very motivated to assert themselves on a middle-tier Eastern Conference team. This is another spot play for me. If this line goes up to 9 or 10 it’s too much, if it goes down to 6 or 7 I’ll bet even more on the Bucks.
76ers -7 (-110), 1.5 units: I love the way Philadelphia matches up against Charlotte. This is another difference in class, but it’s even better because of how the Sixers run their offense. Ben Simmons has looked like a freight train barreling down the court this year, and at times it’s scary to watch his athleticism. Cody Zeller is a fine center and PJ Washington is solid enough (if he plays today), but Simmons and Joel Embiid are just too talented and too big for Charlotte to control. The Charlotte Hornets are a savvy team and they’ve won as an underdog more than a few times this season, but the last two games against Philadelphia ended in double-digit losses and I don’t see why or how that doesn’t happen tonight. Barring some unanticipated “rest day” for one of Philly’s stars, I’m on the favorite to keep winning and winning by margin.
Wizards/Heat over 228.5 (-110), 1.5 units: Another Wizards game, another over for me. The Wizards are on back-to-back games tonight and that means their defense should be even more putrid than usual. We know about Washington’s woes on defense, but the Heat are also in the bottom third for points allowed, permitting over 112 ppg. The Heat can score when paired against the right opponent and the Wizards don’t show any signs of slowing down on offense. Goran Dragic returns for his second game back for Miami after a bad performance on Monday, so we expect some positive regression for him, which will only add to Miami’s offensive efficiency. The Heat are also 8.5 point favorites tonight, which tells me the Wizards should be playing catchup and pushing the 3-ball and fast-break aggressively, as usual. Maybe this is the game where a Washington game hits an under, but I can’t bet that side. Life’s too short to bet an under (especially with the Wiz-kids!)!
Lean, Rockets -7 (-110): This is a comeback spot for OKC as they got absolutely throttled by the perpetually-improving Rockets on Monday. Call me square, but I’m really becoming a fan-boy of Houston. I just love the way they play and I think they could be very feisty if they make the playoffs. I won’t bet this side tonight since it’s a better spot for OKC, at home seeking revenge, but I still favor the Rockets. They’re very fluid right now.
Knicks win (+110), 1 unit: I’ll take a shot on the Knicks in a revenge spot at Chicago. The last contest was sort of a snooze-fest, at least compared to other NBA games, but the Knicks stayed in the game late after Chicago maintained a lead through most of the game. The Knicks didn’t shoot too horribly from the field against the Bulls two days ago, but they’re due for some positive regression, especially from beyond the arc (they were only 20% on 3 point shots Monday). New York is fully healthy, well-coached, and they have a significantly better defense than Chicago. I expect less efficiency from Chicago’s offense and a close Knicks win.
The biggest betting event of the year is this Sunday and it should be a fantastic game. I know there’s a ton of huge prop bets where you could bet $10 to win $2,000+ etc., but they’re at that price for a reason (i.e., you’ll lose). Below are my favorite prop bets and it’s all on wagers you could actually win– Go figure!
Brady over 300.5 passing yards (-114): The Bucs will want to run and keep the ball away from Mahomes. That’s the plan for every team that faces Kansas City. Then a few crazy passes by Mahomes to Kelce or Hill and they score 21 points in 6 minutes and that plan gets blown to shit. Brady will need to throw often and it’s likely Tampa will be playing from behind, at least at some point. Brady would rather saw his arm off than lose, so I don’t think he’ll mind pushing it to the limit (and way over 300 yards) on Sunday.
Bucs -1.5, 1st half only (+155): We all know by now that the Chiefs love to start slow and play from behind. Brady was on fire at the start of the NFC Championship, and I could easily see the Bucs keeping an early lead.
Lead change in 4th (+190): I really like this bet and this price. It’s the GOAT against the league’s most talented QB but more importantly, it’s two QBs who refuse to lose in big-game situations. I think a lead change in the 4th quarter is more than likely, making this great value.
First first down to TB (+105): If the Bucs get the ball first, and that’s better than a coin-flip chance since Andy Reid may choose to kick, then there’s a high chance that this hits. The Bucs’ first drive will be scripted to perfection, and a first down should come easy. If Kansas City gets the ball first, well, you’re screwed.
Most first downs, TB (+130): Mahomes and the Chiefs rely on big plays; Brady and the Bucs rely on (mostly) methodical drives and a balanced attack. The Chiefs could win by 20 and still lose the first-down contest.
Patriots mentioned more than 2 times (-150): You’re telling me the broadcast booth can contain themselves and not mention the Patriots 1000 times during this broadcast? Please. This is inflated for a reason– it’s going to happen.
Missed PAT- Yes (+210): The weather “experts” are calling for a windy (and possibly rainy) day in Tampa, and field goal kickers haven’t been very clutch on PATs this year. In fact, Tampa and Kansas City are in the bottom quadrant of NFL teams on extra point conversion % this year. This might be worth a shot!
Roughing the Passer- Yes (+130): I mean, the Super Bowl features probably the two most protected passers in the league, so why wouldn’t this happen? It’s likely that Todd Bowles calls a more aggressive game-plan to try and aggravate Mahomes, and Brady’s old legs don’t dance like they used to. The refs won’t ease up on a linebacker coming at light-speed if he smacks one of the NFL’s golden boys.
Bucs/Chiefs double-result (+550): By far the biggest “risk” on this page, I still really like this bet. Like I mentioned before– the Chiefs can get off to slow starts and they almost seem to prefer playing behind early (Bills last week, Texans last year, and oh yea– last year’s Super Bowl). Brady won’t be nervous as he continues his house-money run as the GOAT, so it’s not unimaginable that he’ll lead the Bucs to a few early scores. Second half– Chiefs start to roll, Mahomes shines, and it all happens like we thought. I can see it…
