Too bad UNC didn’t pull off the win last night or we really would have had a big day. Still love the Tar Heels as a dangerous team in late March. If the last week was any indication, these games should be highly entertaining and close (hence why we favor so many dogs). Alright, it’s Saturday baby! Let’s get to the picks!

Michigan -6 (-115), 1.5 units: I was a believer in Ohio State for a very long time until they started to cool off in February. The Buckeyes have some killer shooters, particularly Duane Washington from beyond the arc, and when they’re fluid on offense they can catch a team off guard and go up quick. Michigan had a few let-down spots but they’re as commanding and consistent as any team in the country. They also have the deepest roster by far in the Big 10 and they’re talented at every position. I questioned Michigan’s motivation heading into the Big 10 tourney, but after watching the Wolverines stifle and then roll a surging Maryland squad yesterday, I have no hesitation about this pick. Michigan won’t let Ohio State overtake their throne. And the way the Buckeyes let teams come back late in games spells bad news for this show-down. Take Michigan.

Alabama -5 (-105), 1 unit: Alabama is clearly the class of the SEC, at least by my estimations. And yes, most of that is because of their electric offensive attack. This is only a 1 unit play because Tennessee is of course a tough, reputable opponent with a great defense. They also have a little revenge angle here after their loss to the Crimson Tide in early January. But like most teams, I don’t see the Volunteers keeping up with Bama’s ability to score. PS– Alabama is also the #2 adjusted defense in the nation now according to KenPom. They’re not too shabby on the other side of the court, either.

Iowa +4 (-105), 2 units: Illinois is the hottest team in the Big 10 but Iowa is a close second. The Hawkeyes have showed toughness and resilience over and over again the past 2 months and a surging Illinois team won’t intimidate them. The Illini love to push the pace and Iowa will have to keep up, but Luka Garza won’t allow big Kofi Cockburn to completely dominate this game. It’ll be a back and forth battle and as we’ve seen so many times this week, I wouldn’t be shocked if it goes to OT. Take the dog.

Memphis +7 (-110), 1.5 units: Memphis isn’t giving up that #1 adjust defense designation on KenPom any time soon and good for them– the Tigers have looked like a confident contender and they still pose the biggest challenge for Houston in the AAC. In their last matchup against the Cougars, Memphis went punch for punch with the class of the conference. Anfernee “Penny” Hardaway is proving to be an exceptional coach and great recruiter. The Tigers may lose, but they won’t go out lightly.

Georgetown +8.5 (-110), 2.5 units: Damn right I’ll continue backing the Hoyas. Game after game and in the toughest final minutes, Patrick Ewing’s unit steps up in big ways, especially on the boards and on the free throw line. Creighton is an elite team but they are one of the worst free throw shooting teams in America (ranked 332nd on Haslametrics). They’re literally worse than teams like Merrimack, Long Island, Bethune-Cookman, UMass Lowell, you get it. Think that’ll matter in the final minutes? I do. Georgetown has been lights out at the end of games at the FT line and they’re one of the best in the country in FT percentage (36th). Combine that with their talent in the front court and it’s an easy dog bet for me. I love their moxie and last time I checked, we’re still at MSG– this is Patrick’s house babbyyyy! Take the Hoyas.

Georgia Tech wins (+165), 1 unit: I thought a fired up UNC team would take down the Seminoles but now I’ll double down on an even hotter team to do it. Winners of now 7 straight with an offense that seems to be getting better and better, the Yellow Jackets got a convenient day off yesterday to prep for the ACC Final. The Seminoles sealed a hard fought win against the dangerous and talented Tar Heels Friday. From a matchup standpoint, I don’t see much separating Florida State and Georgia Tech. The spot favors Tech with a day of rest and a ton of momentum. The Seminoles are volatile away from home and tend to blow big games. The value lies with Georgia Tech.

Oregon State/Colorado over 132.5 (-110), 2 units: This Pac-12 game should be closer than the line indicates and I really like the way Colorado has flexed on offense lately. In their last 5 games, the Buffaloes are averaging 71.6 ppg; Oregon State is averaging 74.6 ppg in the same span. I get why this number is lower, but a hotly contested game should result in more points and free throw attempts. Give me the over.

I love the barkin’ dogs today and why the hell not?! These conference tournaments have been wild and so many underdogs seem to be the more motivated teams. Opportunity opportunity opportunity! Let’s GET IT!

Maryland +8.5 (-105), 1.5 units: I really like the way Maryland looked yesterday. It’s not about any one thing they did really well, it’s about how solid of a group they are. That was a tough spot for the Terps going up against a desperately hungry Michigan State team. The Spartans came out surging and looking like they would out-motivate and out-pace Maryland, but then the Terps took over near the end of the first half and never let off the pedal. Aggressive offense, especially from Maryland guards Wiggins and Ayala, helped force the Spartans into tough spots and they were never able to recover. Now the Terps go up against the class of the Big 10 and I have to question the Wolverines’ motivation today. They didn’t look all that pumped in their second contest against the Spartans last weekend and now they have to face a hot Maryland squad. The most impressive aspect of how the Terps play is on the defensive end. They do a fantastic job at preventing easy buckets and forcing teams into uncomfortable shot selections. And as I said in my post yesterday, Maryland was only allowing 58.8 ppg in their recent 5 game winning streak. They looked like that team Thursday and I like that heading into this early contest. Hunter Dickinson should pose some problems, as he always does, but I expect the menacing Maryland defense to slow down Michigan’s pace and force a close game.

Purdue wins (+105), 1 unit: Purdue is playing some of the most solid all around basketball of any team the last month and I don’t think Ohio State will be prepared for it. Winners of their last 5 games and 11 of their last 14 games, the Boilermakers are one of the most battle-tested teams in the country (strength of schedule ranks 11th on both KenPom and Haslametrics). The team literally doesn’t have a weakness, and their methodical pace of play has befuddled many an opponent in the Big 10. Ohio State faced a poor Minnesota team yesterday and easily won, or did they? The Buckeyes allowed the Gophers to come back a little towards the end and Minnesota nearly tied the game. Not a good look at the end. The Buckeyes will face a tremendous uptick in class today and I haven’t been awed by what I’ve seen the last few weeks. Even in wins, Ohio State isn’t an imposing unit. Purdue and Ohio State split games earlier this season; I don’t think this one will be as close. Take Purdue.

Tennessee -3 (-115), 1.5 units: The Volunteers are a match-up problem for Florida. The Gators are a good team but they turn the ball over way too much and Tennessee leads the SEC in forcing turnovers. Tennessee went down early in their last contest, only to surge and control the game with ease. Their ability to out-rebound and push around Florida in the front court was glaring. This is basically a home game for the Volunteers; Give me UT.

Georgia Tech wins (+155), 1 unit: Just got news that UVA is out of the tournament– COVID strikes again! Worst. Too bad, because I really liked the Yellow Jackets for + money here. Watch out for Georgia Tech in the ACC title game.

Georgetown wins (+140), 2 units: What’s not to like about the way Georgetown is playing lately? Patrick Ewing is playing with a chip on his shoulder in his backyard at MSG, the Hoyas are excellent from the free throw line, their bigs can control and out-rebound any team, and they have a ton of momentum. Can’t say the same about Seton Hall. The Pirates entered the Big East tournament stumbling and just escaped with an OT win against Saint John’s. That was a very solid win but I could see the Pirates underestimating Georgetown today. This is one of my favorite dogs on today’s slate, thus the play for 2 units. Take the Hoyas.

North Carolina wins (+115), 2 units: Hot damn, I really like the way the Tar Heels are playing. That incredible surge by UNC in the final 10 minutes yesterday was really impressive. That’s really hard to do against a very tough Virginia Tech team. I love stats that support my angles, and there’s plenty of them here, but I’m throwing them out the window for this contest. It’s all about the intangibles in this Friday night Semifinal. Florida State has been incredibly unpredictable to end their season. Trust me, my bankroll knows. I absolutely don’t trust them here today. North Carolina matches up really well against the Seminoles (as they showed on February 27). UNC is the tallest team in the ACC and they bullied Florida State in their last battle. North Carolina is playing with a huge chip on their shoulder, on a mission to prove they’re not a team to underestimate. I like them to win the ACC Tournament (they’ll meet Georgia Tech if they win today) and I like them to overwhelm the Seminoles again tonight. They want it more.

Well yesterday was an absurd day in the conference tournament world for more reasons than one, but we still escaped on the right side of half our picks. Motivation is the most important factor heading into these rivalries– if a team doesn’t care as much as another (i.e. Marshall, Providence, Stanford, etc.), big upsets and blown lines are bound to occur. Let’s get after it for today’s picks:

Michigan State/Maryland under 130.5 (-110), 1.5 units: I’m going to avoid a side here since I like the way both these teams are playing heading into the Big 10 Tourney. The narrative is out there and it’s probably legit that Tom Izzo, in another conference tournament with his beady little eyes still set on making the big dance, is the best side here today. That may be right, but Maryland has been playing some pretty good basketball, too. The Terps arrive in Indianapolis now the losers of 2 straight games but they were on a 5 game win-streak before that. Efforts from the Maryland defense have been particularly noteworthy, holding opponents to only 58.8 ppg during that stretch. Those are UVA-like numbers. The truth is, MD has been pretty solid all year on defense, allowing only 64.7 ppg during the season and holding a top 40 adjusted defense ranking nearly all year on sites like KenPom and Haslametrics. Michigan State hasn’t done too bad either, allowing only 67.7 ppg in their last 7 contests and against more impressive offenses like Michigan and Ohio State. Yesterday’s two Big 10 conference games flew under, and maybe some of that has to do with the mega-sight that is Lucas Oil Stadium, but I think some of it is just the nature of the Big 10. Nerves are high, solid coaching; defenses step up. Give me another under in what should be a testy conference with two motivated teams.

Lean, Georgetown +8 (-110): In no way are the Hoyas on the same level as Villanova, but there are a few notable things that came out of Georgetown’s win against Marquette yesterday. Of course I was on the Marquette side, shutter, but nonetheless. Georgetown does a great job at offensive rebounding. Maybe this shouldn’t come as a shock having a coach like Patrick Ewing at the helm, but in that sense Villanova and Georgetown are pretty similar. Both rely on second-chance scoring opportunities and foul shooting to pull ahead from opponents. And it shows. In field goal percentage, the Hoyas were just as abysmal as Marquette Wednesday. Both shot under 40% from the field and both shot a measly 21% from beyond the arc. If Villanova plays with motivation and form and starts on fire from beyond the arc, this game could get out of hand. If it’s a gritty game down-low where players are fighting for rebounds, I like the Hoyas’ chances. This is a watch-and-see game for me, but I would lean Georgetown getting points.

UVA -5.5 (-105), 2 units: This is just a question of motivation. If the UVA that we know shows up and plays motivated at full strength, a solid Syracuse team may not have much of a chance. Syracuse is capable of scoring fast and in bunches, but the Cavaliers’ defense has enough to stifle the best offenses. The question lies in the Orangemen’s ability to penetrate UVA’s front court with fast-break and layup opportunities, two areas where they’re one of the best in the country and two ways that pose a real threat to UVA. If a team is successful at converting points off steals in particular, a stat that the Orangemen rank 19th best in the country, the Cavaliers perform noticeably worse. All that aside, I think the favorite will win and cover today. UVA coach Tony Bennett is one of the more professional, buttoned up coaches in the game, and he can’t be particularly happy with the way UVA ended their season. Losing 3 out of their last 5, and to in-conference rivals they hate like Duke and Florida State, must leave a bad taste in his mouth. I expect UVA to assert themselves in the ACC Tournament and make a statement against Syracuse.

Parlay: Ohio State wins + MIN/OSU under 146 (1 unit to win 1.5): Did you see the Minnesota vs. Northwestern game last night? Well I did and wow, that was some shitty basketball. Missed shots, turnovers, bodies flailing around the floor, guards unable to maintain their dribble, poor shot choice; I could go on and on. Minnesota was lucky to escape with a win. Holding a 7-point lead entering the final 5 minutes of play, Northwestern never scored again in the game’s final 4+ minutes which, considering how many free throws and shot opportunities are at the end of 99% of college games, is pretty staggering. Northwestern’s inefficiency was the real reason why the Gophers won. Now Minnesota has to shake that off, push through last night’s nightmares and take on a hungry Buckeyes team in the same menacing stadium. Good luck. Ohio State ended their season is regrettable fashion, losing against Michigan, Michigan State, Iowa and Illinois. Sure that might be the best of the best in the Big 10, but that’s not who we thought Ohio State was and it’s certainly not who they think they are. I think the Buckeyes will be very motivated today. With the defensive energy of Big 10 basketball and that stadium in Indianapolis, along with how ineffective Minnesota looks, this should result in another under, too.

Georgia Tech -9.5 (-105), 1.5 units: I really like Georgia Tech as a flyer to win the ACC Tournament (+500 right now). The Yellow Jackets have a fantastic offense, adjusted #25 on KenPom and #22 on Haslametrics (I think they may be even better), and they’re riding a 6 game winning streak into the ACC bracket. We’ve seen steady improvements in their defense, too. Miami put out a good showing on Wednesday against Pitt and that makes me want to fade them even more. The Hurricanes are one of the most up and down, inconsistent teams in the country and they could be running into a real buzz-saw today. Last time these two teams faced, the Yellow Jackets obliterated the Hurricanes in every facet of the game. Sometimes that’s an aberration because of motivation or just a good spot, but I don’t think that’s the case here. Georgia Tech is just better at playing basketball. GA Tech shot 57% from the field, 42% from 3 point land, 100% from the free throw line, and had 9 more rebounds than Miami. One good sign I look for is how a team performs in the second half when they have the game in hand. Tech was winning their first matchup 48-18 at the break; the game was over. But in the second half the Yellow Jackets kept pace and nearly out-scored Miami again, losing only by a 3 point margin by solidifying a 27 point beat-down. I don’t know if the blowout with look the exact same today, but I like a double-digit with for Georgia Tech, easily.

Wisconsin -5 (-110), 1.5 units: If you didn’t listen to TheOddsBreaker himself on yesterday’s ATS.io podcast, you should. The podcasts on this site and on that weekly pod with ATS.io feature Big 10 conversation and I really like what Kiev had to say yesterday on Wisconsin. The Badgers are stacked with seniors, so they have way more experience than most Big 10 teams, and they have not played to expectations this season. Needless to say, they’re motivated and they’ve said as much in the media. Penn State plays really well at times and then look like one of the crappiest Big 10 teams at other times. I don’t trust them today after that big comeback win against an inferior team. They probably should have lost. I’ll take a shot on a motivated, experienced Badgers squad who could have a sneaky chance at winning their conference tournament.

Well we had a nice 2-2 night Tuesday. Notre Dame pulled another Notre Dame and only decided to play in the last 10 minutes, while Gonzaga clearly should have covered since they were down by 14 and surged back to win easily by 10. Again I feel we were on the right sides there but oh well. Follow me on Twitter if you don’t already– last night I put out live bets on the Flyers and Gonzaga when both were way down and they both hit. I do this routinely to help my followers and it makes for some exciting community wagers. Onto our hump day picks in college hoops!

NC State wins (+140), 2 units: This is a tough game to handicap on two teams who ended their seasons hot, albeit one a bit hotter than the other. The NC State Wolfpack enter Wednesday night winners of 5 in a row; Syracuse won 6 of their last 8. Syracuse has stacked up impressive wins against Notre Dame, North Carolina, and two against NC State. NC State’s marquee victories came against Virginia and Notre Dame. I’m more impressed by the Wolfpack’s streak though, since that UVA game was a PRIME spot for the Cavaliers and since 4 of the Wolfpack’s last 5 wins came away from their home court. NC State is a nice 6-3-1 ATS this year on the road. Syracuse– not so much. The Orangemen look like a different team on the road: they’re 2-7 ATS (22%) and they’ve allowed 81.8 ppg against conference opponents away from New York. Statistically, both teams are mostly evenly matched, but for me this is NC State’s opportunity to steal a win. They’re more apt away from home and they’ve ended the season on a real hot streak. Not to mention they have added motivation in a supreme revenge spot. Give me the team with more momentum and more to prove in an upset win to start off my Wednesday wagers!

Lean, Miami +9 (-110): Be careful betting this game. Miami is coming off a good win where they caught Pittsburgh last night but “da U” has been one of the more inconsistent and abysmal teams in the ACC. Clemson has been a bit up and down, too, although they did end the season winning 7 of their last 9 games. Clemson should win this game, but 9 points is a lot for a team that only beat Miami by 8 and 1 point margins this season. I expect Miami to play this game closer for most of the game, but the line at 9 is factoring in Clemson’s added rest and an expectant let-down spot for the Hurricanes. It’s probably dead on, but again– proceed with caution.

Marquette -2.5 (-115), 1 unit: My first gut reaction was to bet on Marquette today and I’m going to follow that feeling (it tends to be more right than we like to admit). I think the impulse came from the perception that Georgetown has been pretty horrible away from DC. At second glance, Georgetown is actually 4-4 ATS, so not too horrible, while Marquette is actually the worse away team at 5-7 ATS. Yet I still like Marquette (I know I’m not making much sense here). I like Marquette because of how their one and only game against the Hoyas looked earlier this year. I know it was back in early January, but how the game played out was revealing. The Golden Eagles visited Georgetown, where the Hoyas are definitely more comfortable and capable, and the home team was in full control for the first half of that game. Then Marquette started to slowly grind and come back. After starting off slow and overcoming an 18 point deficit, Jamal Cain and company edged out Georgetown for a 64-60 win. One could look at that outcome and look at a revenge wager on the Hoyas. I can see that. But what I see is a Hoyas team that was in a great spot at home and still lost to a better team. How will Georgetown fair in a tougher spot at cavernous Madison Square Garden? Marquette plays really good defense against close to mid-range shots, which is where the Hoyas bread their butter. They should also slow down the pace of the game today and force Georgetown to play out of rhythm, something they couldn’t do in the first contest but would have worked to their advantage. I’ll take what I see as a more resilient team that matches up well against their foe. Take Marquette.

Loyola MD/Army under 137.5 (-110), 1.5 units: Army is 3-0 ATS in neutral site games this year and 8-3 away from their home court. They have also been a much better and more consistent team than Loyola. That being said, Army ranks very highly in KenPom’s luck rating (40th in the nation) and have a rather crappy offense, particularly at the free throw line (ranked a staggering 346th overall in the country on Haslametrics). While I wanted to taker Army initially, I can’t do it (their ranking of 326th in positive momentum on Haslametrics doesn’t help either). Both of these teams rely and win games with their defenses, and both units are fantastic at preventing the other team from scoring at the mid-range level. No matter who you’re matching up against, this is a good prognosis for an under play since most NCAAM’s basketball is either won or lost between the rim and 3-point line. Neither team is inefficient at preventing near-proximity shots or long-range shooting either. In a game where both teams haven’t faced each other yet and one that should be played at a methodical pace, the under feels like the strongest play.

Nebraska +6.5 (-115), 1.5 units: This is just too many points for an up and down Nittany Lions team. Penn State lost once at home against the Cornhuskers and then beat Nebraska on the road by 3 points. Not sure what to take from that, but Nebraska tends to challenge opponents that can’t match their pace. Nebraska is exceptional on defense despite their fast tempo, which can really throw teams off. Unless your Iowa or Michigan or Illinois, it’s unlikely that the Cornhuskers will be overly intimidated or forced to reinvent their style. Penn State is rated more highly on KenPom and Haslametrics and ranked higher in the Big 10, but I think these are two pretty even teams, especially on a neutral court. I’ve taken the Nittany Lions is good spots this year and it’s paid dividends here and there, but I like this spot better for a Nebraska team coming off 2 losses against a team they know they can beat. In my opinion, Penn State’s recent above-average defensive performances against Maryland and Minnesota are more about the disappointing play of those teams– Penn State’s defense has allowed a ton of points in 2021 and Nebraska’s offense has actually looked better since losing their star guard Teddy Allen. This line is sneaky at 6.5; it’s daring you to take the team from Happy Valley. I wouldn’t. I don’t think the Nittany Lions have the offensive prowess to glide into an easy 2+ possession win tonight. Take the Cornhuskers getting points.

Marshall -9.5 (-110), 2 units: This is another revealing line in a game that plays right into Marshall’s wheelhouse. Rice and Marshall have yet to face each other in the 2020-2021 season, which I think is a pretty significant factoid for today’s showdown. Rice could have used a game in-season against the Thundering Herd to study matchups and hope to adjust today, but they have no such film. Marshall plays with a very fast tempo and scores over 80 ppg. Rice plays with a fairly fast tempo and plays some of the worst defense in Conference USA (and in the nation, for that matter). That’s a recipe for 40 minutes of basketball that could get out of hand quick. Rice overcame a near comeback last night against a very inferior conference team in Southern Miss. The Owls cannot afford to let Marshall gain steam tonight or it’ll be a very different story; Marshall is a huge upgrade in class from the bottom-feeder they faced Tuesday. The Thundering Herd are resilient, too, ranked 8th in the country in “away-from-home” stats on Haslametrics. This game is a really great setup for a blowout and I can’t find a reason to think otherwise. Marshall wins by substantial double digits in this one.