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Podcast 71 – 20 – Happy Thanksgiving with Kiev O’Neil – College Football Week 13 & NFL Week 12 plays – Sharp Movements – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
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The OddsBreakers Sports Betting Podcast
The OddsBreakers All Rights Reserved

Happy Thanksgiving to all of you listeners!   Thank you for being there for us!  We have a show of plenty of picks for you today!  Kiev goes solo to cover college games with more leans and plays.  First, Kiev talks about how great Thanksgiving is as a Holiday.  Next, Kiev goes through almost the whole slate of college football with some plays.  Then, we get into the NFL with a Thanksgiving day teaser and week 12 plays.  Next, Kiev gives out his REFUSE TO LOSE teaser that is now 6-5 as well as his BOW TO THE GAMBLING GODS Parlay for fun that pays out at 5-1 this week.  Finally, Kiev gets into sharp line movements for the weekend in both College Football and the NFL.

NFL:  Houston vs Detroit – San Francisco vs LA Rams and more!

NCAA: Arizona vs UCLA – Louisville vs Boston College – Penn State vs Michigan and more!

#Sportsbetting #Gamblingtwitter #NCAA #NFL #UFC #Horseracing

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College Football Week 13 Motivational Spots

By
Kiev O'Neil
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Let down spots:

Northwestern at Michigan State after beating Wisconsin is one.

Coastal Carolina at Texas State after beating Appalachian State.

Iowa hosting Nebraska after upsetting Penn State is a let down spot.

Oklahoma at West Virginia is a small one after beating OK state.

Get up spots:

Wisconsin hosting Minnesota was embarrased last weekend.

North Carolina can make a statement against Notre Dame.

Texas A&M hosting LSU needs big wins.

Look ahead spots:

Coastal Carolina could be looking past Texas State to Liberty.  Sandwich spot.

Louisiana could be looking past ULM to App state.

 

College Football Week 12 misleading Final Scores

By
Kiev O'Neil
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Wisconsin out-gained Northwestern 366 to 263 but lost 17-7.  A 5-1 turnover ratio and 8-1 penalty ratio killed them.

Tulsa out-gained Tulane 522 to 302 yet went to overtime to win 30-24.  3-1 turnover ratio.

Purdue out-gained Minnesota 492 to 394 yet lost 34-31.  A 1-0 turnover ratio and rigged officiating dictated the final score.

Appalachian State out-gained Coastal Carolina 415 to 369 yet lost 34-23.  A 3-1 turnover ratio and 8-1 Penalty ratio hurt them.

Arkansas State out-gained Texas State 654 to 506 yet lost 47-45.  1-0 turnover ratio hurt them.

Western Kentucky only out-gained FIU 278-263 yet won 38-21.  2-0 turnover ratio did them in.

Cincinnati out-gained UCF 482 to 359 yet only won 36-33.   Lucky cover for UCF bettors.   Cinci could have scored if they wanted to at the end.

UCLA out-gained Oregon 462 to 422 yet lost 38-35.   4-1 turnover ratio killed them.

Iowa only out-gained Penn State 361 to 342 yet won 41-21.  4-1 turnover ratio did Penn State in as usual.

Cal out-gained Oregon State 439 to 360 yet lost 31-27.  2-2 turnover ratio didnt do it.  Bad efficiency did them in.

Tennessee out-gained Auburn 464 to 385 yet lost 30-17.  1-1 turnover ratio so bad efficiency killed them and all of their backers this week at +11.

 

Fantasy Football Week 12

By
Kiev O'Neil
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Bye Weeks:  None but make sure you start your guys by Wednesday night!

Key Injuries:

Joe Burrow QB – Torn ACL and MLC.   Out till at least next year.

Rex Burkhead RB – Knee

Julio Jones WR – Hamstring injury

Mark Ingram RB – Positive Covid

JK Dobbins RB – Positive Covid

LeMichael Perine RB – Jets injured and week to week

Randall Cobb WR – Toe injury

Waiver Wire:

Ryan Finley QB – Will start now for Burrow injury.

Russell Gage WR – With Julio Jones hurting he had 12 targets.

Damiere Byrd WR – Another Patriots flunkee

N’Keal Harry WR – Patriots WR who is finally healthy

Breshard Perriman WR – Flacco’s favorite Target.

Gus Edwards RB – Bulk of the Carries this week.

Wayne Gallman RB – Owned in 50% of leagues and will be the Bell Cow for the Giants.

Justice Hill RB – Drafting his was an injustice to your dynasty team but he might play this week.

Denzell Mims WR – Jets got 8 targets.

Taysom Hill QB – Saints

Frank Gore RB – Jets

Week 12 Non-starters trending up:

Adrian Peterson RB – vs Houston’s run D.

Antonio Gibson RB – vs Dallas’s run D.

Duke Johnson RB – vs the Lions D.

Wayne Gallman RB – vs the Bengals run D.

Carson Wentz QB – vs Seattles pass D.

Derek Carr QB – vs the Falcons pass D.

Tua Tagovailoa QB – vs the Jets

Jarvis Landry WR – vs the Jaguars

Richard Higgens WR – vs the Jaguars

Baker Mayfield QB – vs the Jaguars

Busts for week 12:

Melvin Gordon RB – vs the Saints run D.

Clyde Edwards Helaire RB – vs the Bucs run D.

Derek Henry RB – vs the Colts run D.

Miles Sanders RB – vs the Seahawks Run D.

Nasty Sleeper – Wayne Gallman RB – Bengals may have given up after the Burrow injury.

 

 

 

 

 

Podcast 70 – 20 – NFL Week 11 and NCAA Week 12 Recap and Betting Spots – Fantasy Football Week 12 – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
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It’s turkey week and we have a great show for you today! First, Kiev recaps the weekend in the NCAA & the NFL.  Who disappointed and who exceeded expectations?  Next, Kiev recaps some college football and gets into some misleading final scores and motivational spots for week 12.  Then, we talk about some misleading final scores in the NFL and some  more motivational spots.  What was real and what was garbage time?  Next, Kiev gives out a free College Football play for week 13!  Then, D-Nasty comes on to talk some fantasy football.  Who are the key injuries?  Who are we picking up on waivers?   Who is trending up for next weekend and who will be the biggest turkey?  Finally we give out a nasty sleeper to help you win your week!

#Sportsbetting #Gamblingtwitter #NCAA #NFL #UFC #Horseracing

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theoddsbreakers.com

For only 24.99 a month become an ODDSBREAKER’S MEMBER and gain access to all premium picks BEFORE the line moves please visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop!

Better odds Sports Betting 11/20/20

By
Kiev O'Neil
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Please click here for our show and more free plays!

NFL Week 11 Free Plays, Teaser and Parlay

By
Kiev O'Neil
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Kansas City vs Las Vegas +8 O/U 53 – 

I know that Kansas City will probably win this game and it is a road revenge spot but how many points are we actually spotting this team.  Even though Andy Reid is great off of a bye week and they have road revenge on their mind, are the Chiefs really 9 points better than the Raiders on a neutral field?   We know that Kansas City can turn it on and off but they are the Superbowl champions here and they really don’t have anything to prove in my opinion.   KC’s only real weakness is against the run allowing a 4th worst 138 yards per game.  The question is, who is going to have the lead?  If it’s KC then the Raiders might be toast but if it’s Las Vegas, they will run the ball and control time of possession here.  I also think the Raiders played a much harder schedule this year ranking 3rd on Sagarin with Kansas City’s schedule so far ranking 27th.  My algorithm has the Chiefs winning 30 to 25 if strength of schedule was even.   If you adjust for that it’s more like a 3 point win.   Now I do know that both teams have guys in Covid protocols but let’s hope that they are all cleared by gameday.  My power ratings have it a 4 point victory for the Chiefs and maybe add a point for revenge.  7 is too much here.

Las Vegas Raiders +8 – 2 star premium shared and sprinkle

Cincinnati vs Washington PK O/U 46.5 –

This is an interesting matchup of 2 teams with major problems on one side of the ball.  Washington was more of an unders team I think until recently.  Alex Smith is now their quarterback and he tends to force some things.  The Bengals are coming off of a terrible performance against the Steelers but at least, it’s the Steelers.   They were 0-13 on 3rd down and they should clean that up this week.   Joe Burrow still has all of those weapons like Tee Higgens, Taj Boyd and AJ Green to score in games.  Mixon might even be back this game.  The problem with the Bengals is that their defense is so bad allowing 28 points per game and almost 400 yards.   Washington has a bad offense thought but a pretty good defense.  Even though Washington has a decent defense, they still give up over 24 points per game.  The Bengals give up 27.   Both teams are top 11 in number of plays per game.   I can see this game pretty close and the total score going into the 50s simply because this game is being played in Washington making it so the team formally known as the Redskins should be able to score against a bad D.

Cinn/Wash over 46.5 – 2 star premium shared play

Baltimore vs Tennessee +6 O/U 48.5 – 

This should be one of the better games this Sunday in my opinion.  Baltimore has customers of injuries and troubles on defense this year.  If their big man Brandon Williams can’t play in the middle, then I don’t see how Henry doesn’t run right over them like he did last year in the playoffs.  The Ravens gave up 177 yards on the ground to the Patriots last week which is bad even in a rain storm.   The weather for this game at least looks very promising.   I expect some points from Baltimore as well because this is a revenge spot for them.  Both of these teams average 27 points per game.  Baltimore only give’s up 18 points per game but with the banged up defense they will give up more this week.  The Titans give up 26 points per game on average so I can see Baltimore scoring at home here.

Baltimore vs Tennessee over 48.5 – 1.5 star premium shared 

Refuse to lose 6pt Teaser is 6-4 so far this season no thanks to Baltimore last week.  Tease the Vikings down to -1 with the Packers up to +8.   Colts have had a very easy schedule ranking 32nd and they don’t run the ball well.   The Vikings are really looking good lately and the Cowboys are in shambles.   2.5 star premium shared play

Bow to the Gambling Gods for fun Parlay is 2-6 – NCAA:  Army -4 -110, Rice vs North Texas Over 63 -110, Iowa State ML -384, Troy ML -453, Wisconsin vs Northwestern Over 43.5 -110, Minnesota Vikings -320, Los Angeles Chargers -433.   This pays 16.5-1

College Football Week 12 Free Plays – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
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Liberty vs NC State -3 O/U 67 – 

Well now that Liberty is getting the respect that they deserve, It’s time to now fade them as a short dog here.   NC State has been an improving team.  After their Virginia tech loss they beat Pitt, Virginia and Duke.  They also kept up with Miami quite well the week before and they absolutely blew out Florida State.   Liberty is obviously a good group of 5 team and they have a very good offense but their strength of schedule is very week ranking 136 on Jeff Sagarin.  NC State’s schedule ranks 33rd which is a huge difference here.   I have to throw the metric’s out this game due to this discrepancy.  Virginia Tech 2 weeks ago should have won that game without the bad timeout call to ice a 59 yard field goal with no timeouts.  There is now a lot of film on Liberty and Dave Doeren will take advantage.   NC State is fighting for the integrity of the ACC being that Liberty beat 2 teams here already.  I gave this out at 2 but I like it at 3 so buy it down if you must.

NC State -3 – 2 star premium shared play

Tennessee vs Auburn +11 O/U 49.5

This is a pretty big spread for somewhat of a low total here.   Both of these teams have had their ups and downs this season.  Tennessee after beating South Carolina has 4 losses in a row but 2 of those losses were named Georgia and Alabama which helps.   The Vols are coming off the buy looking to save their season here.   They were a ranked team a few weeks back but haven’t been playing like one lately.  Tennessee is a bad -1.1 net yards per play while Auburn is +.5.  Both of these teams are coming off of the bye.  QB Jarret Gaurantano is a bit banged up but should play this week for the Vols.   There are 2 things here to this Handicap.   First of all, Tennessee has had the harder schedule only playing one really good defense in Georgia.  The number 2 things for me is that Auburn is in a massive look ahead spot to Alabama  next week for the Iron Bowl.  Normally Auburn plays a bad team like Samford before this game and this really changes it up a bit.  My power ratings have Auburn winning by 7.5 here and not 11.  Auburn is still really young in the trenches and are venerable.   I think Jeremy Pruitt gets it right here.

Tennessee +10.5 – 2 star premium play and sprinkle

Illinois vs Nebraska -15.5 O/U 59

Wow, Nebraska is laying over 2 scores here.  When was the last time that happened?  Do they even deserve this?  A couple of things pertain to this game.  First of all, Illinois is coming off of a nice win vs an Improved Rutgers team.  The Illini are better than we thought and they are improved on my power ratings.   Number 2.  Nebraska beat Penn State but were massively outgained in yardage by over 200 yards and had some defensive scores.   Their new quarterback Luke McCaffery only had 150 passing yards.  This win was more about Penn State than Nebraska.  Third, Illinois gets a bunch of guys back from Covid protocol including their starting quarterback Brandon Peters.  Lastly, according to my power ratings, this spread should be more around 9 points than over 14.  I like this play a lot here.  Take the fighting Lovies to cover and maybe even win.

Illinois +15.5 – 2.5 star premium shared and sprinkle

 

College Football Week 12 Sharp Action

By
Kiev O'Neil
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Criminal activity, illegal transaction, crime, mafia. US Currency. Cash. Money.

As of Wednesday afternoon:

Sharp money on:

Purdue -2.5 to -3 at Minnesota – 57% tickets and 84% of the money.

SMU -3 hosting Houston – 41% tickets and 80% of the money.

LSU -1 to -2.5 at Arkansas – 51% tickets and 71% of the money.

Maryland -5.5 to -6.5 hosting Michigan State – 61% tickets and 82% of the money.

Cincinnati -3 to -6 at UCF – 73% tickets and 95% of the money.

Oregon State +5.5 to +3.5 hosting Cal – 54% tickets and 81% of the money.

Georgia State -2.5 to -3.5 at South Alabama – 47% tickets and 99% of the money.

Navy -2.5 to -3 at South Florida – 16% ticket and 90% of the money.

Oklahoma State +9.5 to +7 at Oklahoma – 46% tickets and 63% of the money.

Boise State -13 to -14.5 at Hawaii – Dual Action 71% tickets and 90% of the money.

Sharp Totals:

Purdue vs Minnesota over 59 to 62.5 – 62% tickets and 85% of the money.

Appalachian State vs Coastal Carolina over 48.5 – 40% tickets and 90% of the money.

Indiana vs Ohio State over 62 to 66 – 60% tickets and 90% of the money.

UTSA vs Southern Miss under 56.5 to 51.5 – 48% tickets and 69% of the money.

Cal vs Oregon State under 52 to 48.5 – 44% tickets and 81% of the money.

Va Tech vs Pittsburgh under 56.5 to 54.5 – 44% tickets and 97% of the money.

Kansas State vs Iowa State under 50.5 to 46.5 – 34% tickets and 86% of the money.

San Jose State vs Fresno State over 55 to 60 – 35% tickets and 74% of the money.

 

 

NFL Week 11 Sharp Action

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

As of Wednesday Afternoon:

Sharp money on:

Patriots +3 to -1 at the Texans – 66% tickets and 91% of the money.

Dolphins -3 to -3.5 at the Broncos – 60% tickets and 92% of the money.

Buccaneers -3.5 hosting the Rams – 53% tickets and 78% of the money.

Sharp Totals:

Falcons vs Saints under 51 – 40% tickets and 65% of the money.

Bengals vs Washington over 45 to 46.5 – 60% tickets and 97% of the money.

Jets vs Chargers under 47.5 – 52% tickets and 92% of the money.

Titans vs Ravens over 48.5 to 49 – 52% tickets and 87% of the money.

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