Rice +4, 1H (-105), 1.5 units: This is the first game in 2 weeks for North Texas, a well-disciplined USA Conference team who plays methodical and efficient both on defense and offense. It’s likely that North Texas will win this game, but how long will it take for them to get back into the flow of things? We see it in every game where teams are off a long-layoff– they’re not quite the same at first. Michigan State in the first 10 minutes last night is a great example of that. Rice scores more than the Mean Green and play at a much faster tempo. I think there’s a good chance that the Owls are very feisty and could take a lead in this game, especially in the the first half. Any time I think that’s true, I’m on the dog.

Bellarmine -8 (-110), 1 unit: Here I go with more bottom-feeder bets, but I can’t help it! There’s just too much opportunity in spots like this. Poor Kennesaw State is the bottom of the bottom, earning a 0-8 record in ASUN conference play. You might think I like this spot, then, since they’re returning home as a dog and it’s not like Bellarmine is Baylor. But for how average Bellarmine is, I do think they’re still significantly better than Kennesaw State. The Knights score a full 10 ppg better than the Owls, they allow 3 ppg less, and they’ve feasted on the weakest teams in the ASUN, not to mention the fact that Kennesaw State is literally in the bottom 10 ranked teams on KemPom. A school called Bethune Cookman is the next lowest ranked team… not making that up, so that should tell you something. Bellarmine is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 on the road. In short, I like Bellarmine to cover.

UC San Diego vs. Long Beach State over 153.5 (-110), 1.5 units: How much do you know about the Tritons and the “Beach” (seriously, I think that’s their team name, just Beach)? If you’re like the rest of America, probably not much, but I think there’s a real angle here on the over. UC San Diego is a fast-paced team, ranked #89 in tempo according to KenPom. Long Beach State? They’re ranked #12. Long Beach State also allows an insane 89 points per game, and they’ve been rocked on defense by teams with average offenses (like CSU Bakersfield, for example). A defense that bad, with tempos this fast and offenses that can score in bunches– this number is too low for me. I think this soars over.

Northern Colorado -4 (-110), 1 unit: Check out yesterday’s write up on this game, since it was postponed to tonight. Try to get this number at -4.5 or under; 5 or more feels a little too big in what could be a close contest between two pretty terrible teams.

Illinois -2 (-115), 1.5 units : A marquee matchup will close out Friday night between 7th ranked Iowa and 19th ranked Illinois. This should be an entertaining game and picking a side is a bit scary, but I think this is Illinois’ chance to shine. Both teams are among the top 10 in adjusted offense (2nd and 8th, respectively) according to KenPom. Iowa averages nearly 91 ppg and Illinois averages 83. A total over 160 is a huge number for an in-conference game in the Big 10, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it goes over. The difference will be on defense. According to KenPom, the Fighting Illini have had the 10th toughest schedule and have faced the 7th toughest offenses in the country. Still, their adjusted defense ranks in the top 25! Iowa has a lower strength of schedule, yet a significantly lower ranked defense at #100. At home, with both teams coming off 10 days rest (which could affect the offenses more than the defenses), I like the Illini to make more plays guarding the rim. They’ve done it all year, they’re underrated, and I think Iowa is a bit overrated. I’m on the lower ranked team, but the sharper side.

Oregon State +12.5 (-110), 1 unit: The Beavers are on a little tear right now after winning 3 straight games, including their recent victory over USC. This pick has less to do with Oregon State’s recent success, though. USC is the better team; I just don’t think they’re the better team by a 12 point margin. If you look at the box score between these teams a few weeks ago, the statistics were evenly matched. The Beavers had a slight edge in turnovers allowed and 3-point shooting, but overall the Trojans matched or exceeded Oregon State’s performance. Even on the season, USC scores only slightly more and allows only slightly less than Oregon State, and their strength of schedule isn’t that disparate. Although this is a better spot for USC, at home in a revenge game, I think this number is slightly too big. Oregon State can hang for the majority of this contest. USC will win, but not by double digits. This line is falling, so get it while you can at this number!

Rutgers -2, 1H only (-105), 1.5 units: Michigan State may be the better team here, I’m not really sure, but there’s a reason why the Scarlet Knights are favored. The Spartans are coming off 20 days of “rest” after a COVID-related hiatus– a situation that hasn’t served teams well after such a long layoff. Remember, these are kids– kids with families, midterms, finals, and the normal stress of a maturing adult. Their brains haven’t fully developed, and they’re more emotional than professional players. Only 23 days ago, the Spartans squashed Rutgers by more than 20 points. If you look closely at that game, Rutgers played well below their season averages. They shot only 30% from the field, only 25% from 3-point land, shot an absurdly bad 35% from the free-throw line, and got out-rebounded 45-25. Wow, that was one horrendous showing by Rutgers. If Michigan State is going to win or cover, they’ll surge in the second half. I think the spot for Rutgers is just too significant, at least in the first 20 minutes of play.

Northern Colorado -4 (-110), 1 unit: Virtually every statistic in KenPom ranks the Northern Colorado Bears as pretty hideous, in the bottom half of the NCAA in nearly every category (except luck… shocking). Northern Arizona? They’re even worse in every category. The Bears score more and allow less than the Lumberjacks, and they’ve fared well in the first game of a doubleheader all season (winning openers against Idaho State, Montana, Idaho, and Eastern Washington). This number seems right, but I’ll take a shot and put 1 unit on the Bears to cover against a Northern Arizona team that’s 0-6 at home and has a 3-6 conference record in the Big Sky. In other words, Northern Arizona is next-level horrible.

Belmont -5.5 (-110), 1.5 units: I’m trying hard (not sure why) to look at the Austin Peay side and favor the dog, but I just don’t see it. Belmont is on an absolute tear lately, which wouldn’t stand in a greater conference but it means something in theirs. They’re clearly the class of the Ohio Valley. Last year, Austin Peay was an ATS darling as a dog, but not so much this year. The Governors are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games, while the Bruins are enjoying a 9-1-1 ATS run on the road. Austin Peay will play hard; I just think this number is too low. Belmont pulls away in the second half and covers.

James Madison -3.5 (-110), 1.5 units: James Madison is the clear better team and plays at a pace that will disrupt Towson’s confidence. The Dukes score more and allow less than the Tigers and are among the top 50 teams in tempo. It’s easy to get cute and look for a revenge angle, especially with an in-conference contest, but the Dukes beat Towson by a good margin a few weeks ago, even with Towson having the field goal % and rebounding advantage. The Dukes should win by margin yet again.

Wisconsin -3.5 (-110), 2 units: Maryland is a good team to bet on and bet against, depending on the spot. The Badgers come into this game having just lost against conference foe Ohio State, while probably still fuming about their upset loss against the Terps back in late December. Wisconsin plays at a molasses-in-January pace (i.e., slow) and likes to overwhelm teams with their cerebral defense. Maryland relies on great shooting at a slow pace. In the first contest, the Terps shot a ridiculous 50% from the field and out-rebounded the Badgers in a game that went back and forth. I think this game will look different, with Wisconsin acting as the more motivated aggressor. Even better, I love betting on a team that lost at home against an in-conference opponent in the first game. Give me the Badgers in a big win at Maryland.

Parlay: VA Tech wins, game under 139.5 (1 unit to win 2.6 units): Notre Dame is a formidable opponent, but they haven’t played well against above-average teams or defenses. VA Tech won this first contest easily, and I think this looks like a repeat of that affair. Notre Dame is really good on offense, but in their first matchup the Irish were held to just 2/19 from the field in the second half; VA Tech played stifling man-to-man defense and dominated the boards. The Hokies just match up well against teams like Notre Dame, who rely on efficient offense amidst a slow tempo. I like VA Tech even more coming off a loss against Syracuse where they only scored 60 points. Give me the away team and the under.

Stephen F. Austin: +4 (-110), 1 unit: Last time Abilene Christian faced a team with an adjusted tempo this high (Sam Houston St.), they didn’t fair well. Stephen F. Austin plays at an aggressive, blazing pace and ACU will have a tough time keeping up. I like the dog to cover in a sneaky matchup-advantage. May want to sprinkle a little on the money-line, too.

Utah State -6 (-110), 1.5 units: Revenge game at it’s finest! Utah State blew it 2 nights ago (and blew a huge parlay for me, not that I’m still sulking…) when they couldn’t pull ahead late against UNLV. The good news for the Aggies is it’s unlikely that UNLV will shoot over 43% from 3-point land again (they literally couldn’t miss in the second half), and they should be motivated to rebound and play much better defense. Give me the better, more motivated team here. PS- this number is rising so bet it now if you like it!

Saint Joseph’s +12.5 (-110), 1 unit: I know Saint Joseph’s stinks and I know Richmond can put up points, but Richmond can also have incredible stinkers (St. Bonaventure, Loyola IL, Hofstra?). Despite the win/loss disparity between these two teams, Saint Joe’s has played the tougher schedule and they don’t lose by wide-margin unless they’re facing an elite team like Villanova. The only Richmond win I’m impressed by was against Kentucky, but we know the Wildcats are struggling this year. In short, this is a lot of points for a Richmond team to spot, on the road, in conference play. I’ll take a small shot on Hawks for 1 unit.

Pittsburgh wins (+140), 1 unit: Pittsburgh is in a good spot for an upset here. These two teams are very evenly matched, and the Panthers know this is as good a season as any to take out the Tar Heels. Even better, Pitt is traveling back home after a last second loss to Wake Forest– a game where their opponent shot nearly 50% from beyond the arc– which had to leave them frustrated. That should act as a good wake up call. If Pitt had beaten Wake Forest, I’d like this less, but the spot says opportunity for me. Go Pitt!

Alabama -7 (-110), 1.5 units: This is a square, simple pick for me. I wanted to fade the Crimson Tide, but I just couldn’t find any reason to do it. I think Kentucky may be running into a buzz saw tonight. I like the spot even more since the Wildcats got a big win on Saturday against LSU. Good for them, but this is the last team you’d want to face in a potential let-down spot. Alabama has won 9 straight and they score a whopping 81 ppg. I don’t think Kentucky can keep up. Give me the Tide to cover.

LSU -5 (-115), 2 units: Speaking of LSU, the Tigers left a lot on the floor Saturday when they dropped a game to rival Kentucky. We know Alabama can score, but LSU has been even more impressive, averaging 84 ppg and shooting nearly 50% this season. The Tigers are due for some positive regression, especially on offense. I liked this even if LSU won on Saturday; I like it even more since they lost. LSU is dying for a statement win after 2 straight in-conference losses and an Aggies team that’s ranked 198th in offensive efficiency won’t be able to keep pace.