The new & improved Iowa St Cyclones come into Kinnick Stadium lead by Head Coach Matt Campbell, to take on the Hawkeyes out of the Big 10. This showdown is fun every single year, no matter how good or bad the teams are. Iowa St was only to get some pre game warm ups in before the game was cancelled due to lightning. Iowa is coming off a pretty solid win over NIU, who was fighting tough the first half but got dominated in the second half. Both teams are going to look to control the ball game at their own speed. (Iowa St – RPO, Air Raid.) (Iowa – Ground & Pound.) Now nobody is sleeping on The Cyclones but I still see them coming into this game & keeping it close. (Maybe even the outright W) PLAYING – IOWA ST +4 1u & Sprinkle 0.25u on ML.
Baylor @ UTSA –
The Bears are heading down I-35 South to take on the Road Runners of UTSA. Baylor is looking to continue their momentum from last week, as they beat Abilene Christian 55-27. UTSA got beat up by Herm Edwards & The Sun Devils, 49-7. Coming into the season, Baylor was one of my sleeper teams in the Big 12. I look for them to continue building the team, lead by HC Mark Rhule. PLAYING BAYLOR -15 1u.
This is all situational for me this game. The Falcons have had this game circled since their loss against the Eagles in the divisional round of the playoffs. The Falcons improved by adding another weapon in Calvin Ridley to pair with Julio Jones, Sanu, Freeman, Coleman and Hooper. The weakest part of the Eagles defense is their secondary. No Carson Wentz so Nick Foles is starting and has looked awful all preseason and think his great run of starts ends tonight. He will have no Alshon tonight as well on the outside. The Falcons have revenge on the mind and this is a huge letdown spot of the Eagles after they raise the banner tonight. The line opened at +4.5 and is now down to a pick. Still lots of value. I like Atlanta tonight all the way to -2.5.
Colorado +4.5 1U – This is more of a fade on Nebraska. The fact that the Akron game got cancelled makes this a much nicer spot for the Buffs. Colorado had 596 yards last game vs Colorado state and should be able to put some points up. We all know how good of a coach that Scott Frost is but it is way to early for such a huge impact to be made. Now i do not like Colorado’s returning production only ranked 123rd in the NCAA but i do like the fact that they have their QB Steven Montez. Consistency is key and they are looking to make a comeback this year. Nebraska has a true freshman in Adrian Martinez starting this game.
Colorado vs Nebraska O/U 63.5 PREMIUM
Georgia Southern -2.5 1Unit – I really like the way Georgia Southern finished last year after a terrible start. What I really like is that they are 3rd in returning production at 90%. They got back to their triple option roots and it worked well rushing over 200 yards last game. Umass on the other hand played a very tough game vs Boston College and I do not like how they will match up vs the triple option this week. Power ratings has this game Georgia southern by 3.5 so I will take this key below the key number.
Arkansas -12 1Unit – Is it wrong to keep fading Colorado State? Arkansas has new life after hiring coach Chad Morris. Mike Bobo had a terrible start this year working with a brand new team with brand new players. 130 in returning production is worst in the NCAA. Power rating has this game by 17 points. I’ll go with the SEC here all day at this number.
Arkansas St +36.5 1Unit – Alabama has been very consistent in 1 thing over the past 5 6 years. They blow out SEC and other power 5 schools and then they relax against smaller schools kinda like a big brother beating up little bro.
Buffalo vs Temple – PREMIUM PLAY
Penn State -7.5. After the App State scare, there is no way that James Franklin and Tracy Mcsorly is going to let the worst team in the ACC beat them. This is a Get Up spot for Penn State and the power ratings has this game by 12.
South Carolina +14 – Took this one a long time ago. It’s completely based on Power ratings and returning production. Muschamp has his QB deebo Samual poised here to make a huge statement at home. Georgia lost quite a few players from last year on offense and defense. I like the game cocks to possibly win outright this game and the spread here is good down to 7 points…
Liberty +10 and ML sprinkle vs Army – Liberty played a seasoned old Dominion Team and kicked the absolute shit out of them in their 2018 FBS debut. 52-10. Army had a very tough break by having to play a great Duke team while returning some very low production on offense. Liberty being in the FCS all these years have played many triple option teams and should be ready to hold army. Liberty is trying to prove that they belong and it is working. I am with the Sharps here.
Baylor -14.5 vs UTSA – Baylor is poised to have a great year after a horrible one last year. I love coaches in their second year especially when they are motivated. Matt Ruhl has 88% returning production and this team should be able to easily handle one of the worst teams in football. Power ratings have this game Baylor by 18
Baylor vs UTSA O/U 50 PREMIUM PLAY
E Michigan vs Purdue over 55 – Purdue plays fast. Many times they have a no huddle. Rondale Moore for purdue might have 300 yards this game.
Michigan State vs Arizona State Premium
NFL
Tennessee vs Miami Under 45 – Both teams had terrible offenses last year. Miami averaged 17 PPG and the Titans averaged 21. Now Miami lost their top WR in Jarvis Landry. Ryan Tannahill is just as bad as Jay Cutler IMO. On the other hand the defenses were not too bad here… I think there is some value here especially because Tennessee is a rushing team and they now have a very defensive minded coach in Vrable. They will try and control this game and be careful here
Chicago vs Green Bay +7.5 – Bears had a top 10 defense last year and is super motivated after the Kalil Mack addition. New coach means that we will see a completely different team. The Packers have linebacker woes which should open up the run game for the Bears. I like the Packers to win by 4 points. because they still have Rodgers.
Kansas City vs San Diego -3.5 – Simple. Green QB in Mahomes and fierce pass rush with San Diego. This is ALL you need to know here. I love the fact that Antonio Gates is back. Chargers by 8
After a tough week 1 we cover the failed narratives and what we need to do about it for week 2. We then get into let down spots, look ahead spots and sharp line movement. The final segment we get into week 2 college football and NFL sports picks.
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There isn’t a ton going on in the ACC this week as several teams are playing FCS teams. I was able to find a few plays for us this week.
Duke vs Northwestern (-3)
Since 2015, Northwestern has beat Duke 2 out of 3 times. The average Northwestern win has been by 10 points. Northwestern will be in line for a revenge spot as they lost at Duke last year 41-17. The average score in the past 19 meetings is Northwestern 22.9 – Duke 22.3 and the series is 10-9 in favor of Northwestern.
Northwestern comes off a win against Purdue in week 1. Purdue again out gained Northwestern for the second straight year. After a 31-17 lead at the half, Purdue’s defense shut them out in the second half. Another concern for Northwestern is the health of Clayton Thorson. In order to bring home the win in this one, Northwestern will need to control the tempo of the game and limit their mistakes. They will also need to make some plays through the air and get some stops on defense.
Duke is coming off a win against Army’s triple option in week 1. Duke had a very balanced attack with 17 pass plays going for 197 yards and 35 rush attempts going for 184 yards. The key for Duke in this game is going to be the play of QB Daniel Jones. In last year’s game he had 305 yards passing and 108 yards rushing. He was also nearly the leading rusher against Army. If Northwestern can’t contain him, they’re in for a long day.
I was not impressed with Northwestern in the Purdue game, and Purdue probably should have beat them. If Duke’s defense can contain Northwestern’s offense, I would look for them to have a good shot at covering the spread and possibly winning outright. Take Duke +3 for 1U and sprinkle the ML for 1U.
Clemson vs Texas A&M (+12.5)
Both of these programs are coming off wins in week 1 vs FCS teams. They both won handily, which was to be expected. Clemson managed over 500 yards of offense vs Furman. Texas A&M managed over 750 yards against Northwestern St. This should be a fun as Dabo Swinney will go against a familiar foe in Jimbo Fisher.
Coming in to the year Clemson has been highly regarded as the second best team behind Alabama. From what we’ve seen so far, there’s no reason to doubt that’s the case. With starter Kelly Bryant playing well and freshman Trevor Lawrence impressing, Clemson’s offense is looking like it shouldn’t drop off no matter who’s under center. Clemson’s defense was also impressive allowing only 163 total yards.
Texas A&M is a bit of a wildcard team with Jimbo Fisher heading over to the SEC. They looked good early and were able to run the ball extremely effectively. Again this was against an FCS team, so there might not be a ton of carryover here, especially going against one of the best defenses in the country this week. I’m interested to see what Jimbo Fisher and the Aggies can muster against Clemson on both sides of the ball.
This one could go either way as far as the total goes. It could be a grind it out game with Clemson’s defense, or it could be a bit of a shootout if the offenses get rolling. I’m staying away from the total here. Take Clemson -12.5 for 1U.
Hawaii really put on the points last week versus Colorado St 43 points and their quarterback McDonald amassed over 500 total yards. However this week they have a much tougher test with The Midshipmen. Navy loves to control the clock (averaged 36:18 time of possession last year) to limit opportunities which they will have to do to be successful against this new Hawaii offense. The line opened up at 51 and has been driven up to 61 largely due to an over-reaction to Hawaii most recent game. Possible let down for Hawaii as came out as 17 point dogs and won straight up last week. Navy games hit the under at 64% last year. I will gladly take my chances on the Under 61. 2 unit play
Rice Vs Houston
Technically a home game for Rice but since these two campuses are roughly 10 mins away I see it being packed with Cougar faithful. Rice barely snuck out a win against Prairie View last week. I don’t see how this team scores on Ed Oliver and the 59% of production they return on Defense. Prairie View’s Qb ran well on Rice I can only imagine the field day D’Eriq King will have. Give me Houston -26. 1 unit play
This one is basically based on Wisconsin’s greener than last year defense and W Kentucky’s pace of play. The Hilltoppers threw the ball 60% of the time last year slowing the clock and played at a top 17 pace at 78.4 plays per game. This should allow plenty of time for the Badgers to run up this Score. Badgers over 52.5 2U
Nov 18, 2017; Lubbock, TX, USA; The Texas Tech Red Raiders masked rider enters the field before the game against the TCU Horned Frogs at Jones AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Michael C. Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
Texas Tech v. Ole Miss – This game is going to be a great way to kickoff the 2018 college football season, as these teams travel to Houston Texas to take each other on. Now Texas Tech is only returning 31% of their offense but their defense is a whole different story. The D is returning 96% of its defense with 10 returning starters, the defense was lights out last year not only in the Big 12 but the entire nation. Ole Miss comes into this game returning 64% on O & 62% on defense. Ole Miss does have some big play makers returning on the offense, which is going to be a fun battle with Techs defense. My #s have Tech -3.5. One of the things I factored in was the re-build state that ole miss is in dating back to last years problems. PLAYING TEXAS TECH -2 for 1U
West Virginia v Tennessee – This game is going to be a great follow up after the Texas Tech Ole Miss game. West Virginia & that high octane offense lead by Will Grier is taking on the Vols out of the SEC. Now everybody knows about Will Grier by now, but they’re also returning 2 of the best WRs in the league. Now the Vols are a different story, they’re definitely in a re-building stage with a new head coach. West Virginia is returning 72% on offense & 57% on defense. Tennessee comes in returning 58% on offense & 61% on defense. My #s have this game WVU – 12.5. I think WVU offense will wear down the Vols throughout the game as WVU covers & start their 2018 campaign with a W. PLAYING WEST VIRGINIA -12.5 for 1U
