UNC Greensboro gave us the big win we needed last night in college hoops; I was dead wrong about Appalachian State– well done Mountaineers!– and the other two losses were just bad beats. As I noted on my twitter account, Sometimes you have the right side and you still lose. Bet the right side the right way long term and you’ll come out on top more often. Let’s move onto Tuesday with another full slate of conference tournament play!

Iona -5.5 (-110), 1.5 units: This game sets up well for the Iona Gaels. Heading into their conference tournament winning 6 of their last 8 games, one of Iona’s only losses to end the year was against Quinnipiac. Of course that was on the road and coincided with a stretch of ineffective offense to end the 1st half, not to mention a host of turnovers throughout the game that gave the Bobcats easy buckets. Iona is harder to predict than most MAAC teams since they haven’t played as many games. COVID struck them hard this season. When they have played, we’ve learned a few things about the Gaels– they’re great at preventing shot attempts (ranked 21st on Haslametrics) and they have issues turning the ball over. They also have arguably the best player in the MAAC in guard Isaiah Ross, who led the conference in scoring with 20.5 points a game. Even better, he’s shooting 48.9% from the floor and a ridiculous 41.4% behind the arc. The Bobcats are a decent team capable of playing great defense at times, but there are too many intangibles working against them today. Iona has the revenge angle, the best player on the court, and easily the best coach. Rick Pitino will have the kids ready to play– just like he did after that long layoff win against Manhattan– and I have to believe Iona will clean up their turnover problem in this rematch. Better play, better angle, way better coach– give me the Gaels to win by more than 2 possessions.

Notre Dame -8 (-110), 1.5 units: Does Notre Dame deserve to be favored by 8 here on a neutral court? To the layperson, maybe not. Casual bettors often misinterpret the reasons behind handicapping. The books list lines at a certain number not because they think that’s exactly where the game will land, but because it’s the best estimate of where they project the public thinks the game will land. That creates the most bets on both sides, which guarantees them money. If you’re like me and you’ve been burned by the Irish, it’s hard to take their side. Notre Dame tends to play down to their competition or play way up to their competition, so they’re a bit tough to predict. The Irish were surging for awhile in February, only to finish losing 4 of their last 5. They beat Florida State in their last contest, which was quite impressive, but that might’ve been more about the Seminoles letting themselves down once again on the road. I’m choosing Notre Dame today based on how they should perform against the Demon Deacons. Wake Forest is not on the same level as the Irish. Although they may be more similar on defense, Notre Dame has a prolific offense capable of stacking up points against any Division 1 opponent. They’re great at near-proximity shots (ranked 13th on Haslametrics) and at 3-point shooting (ranked 54th on Haslametrics), making them a difficult scoring team to defend. Wake Forest really struggles on the defensive end of the floor and Notre Dame should be able to pull away like they did in their first matchup. The Demon Deacons, although going up against an average defense today, are not nearly competent enough to keep up with the Irish. They’re also ranked near the bottom of the nation (345th) in momentum right now, playing some of their worst basketball of the year to end the season. Lightning could strike and demolish our bet on the Irish once again, but the right side is Notre Dame.

Cleveland State -2 (-115), 2 units: Oakland played the perfect game yesterday to steal a win over Northern Kentucky. The Norse only shot 33.3% from the field and a subpar 23% from beyond the arc. They also turned the ball over 5 more times than the Grizzlies. Oakland has some positive momentum heading into tonight’s Horizon Conference Final but I don’t buy it. Defense will be the difference in this game. Ranked 108th in defensive efficiency on Haslametrics, the Vikings boast one of the better units in the conference. They’re especially good defending the long-ball, holding opponents to only 29.3% in three-point shooting percentage, which is 12th in the nation. While the Vikings’ offense isn’t as prolific, Oakland won’t be able to pull away in this contest, even if they’re winning the turnover battle and shooting well above their norm. These two teams faced one another on Oakland’s home hardwood twice earlier this year. Twice Oakland was bested by Cleveland State. In the first matchup, the Vikings led and controlled the entire contest. The second game only ended by a 2 point margin, but Oakland shot a ridiculous 54.4% from the field, a full 6 percentage points better than Cleveland State. And Cleveland State still won. This game should look more like their first matchup, and it can’t help the Grizzlies that it’s on a neutral court this time. I’ll take Cleveland State by one humble possession.

Gonzaga -13 (-110), 2 units: I was hoping to bet on BYU tonight, thinking the Cougars would take care of business in a big fashion Monday night. Instead, Pepperdine was competitive for all 40 minutes and pushed the game into overtime. BYU took over in extra innings, but I don’t like their outlook heading into tonight against the nation’s #1 team. Unlike Baylor and Michigan and many top 25 teams that had fluctuating performances to end the regular season, Gonzaga has given us no reason to believe they’re taking their foot off the gas. The Bulldogs only scored 1 point in the final 4 minutes of yesterday’s first tournament game against St. Mary’s and they still won by 23 points. If you have a shot at beating Gonzaga, you gotta play perfect basketball. Last time BYU faced the nation’s #1 team they were at home in an ideal spot and still lost by 11. In their first battle of the year, they lost at Gonzaga by 17. The Bulldogs match up well with everyone but I especially like how they’ll match up tonight. Playing an OT game late into the night (St. Mary’s vs. Gonzaga started 2 hours earlier, too) to me means the BYU defense will be tired Tuesday. Not a great prognosis against a team that scores over 91 ppg. Gonzaga, on the other hand, probably feels like they just played a scrimmage game, easily coasting through the 2nd half against the Gaels last night. Despite what some pundits might tell you, Gonzaga cares about winning the West Coast Conference Tournament and winning it with authority. Better spot, neutral court, and perhaps the best team in America– the Bulldogs should cover.

Not the most successful weekend in CBB for yours truly but sometimes that’s how the ball bounces. When most of my colleagues are similarly frustrated, I feel slightly better. The world of gambling college hoops can be frustrating, but overall we WIN and we win OFTEN at TheOddsBreakers. In that spirit, let’s start the week off right! Here are my picks:

Elon/Hofstra over 138.5 (-110), 1.5 units: Elon comes into this contest white hot as winners of now 6 straight, including a big win against conference giant James Madison one day ago. What a high for the Phoenix. After 2 more frustrating defeats at the hands of James Madison, Hofstra enters tonight following a solid win against Delaware. Hofstra has been the better team throughout the year and should take care of business today, but the line now sits at -5 in favor of the Pride. Although it’s a better spot for Hofstra, I can’t take them against the surging Phoenix. What I do like is the over. Both of these teams really struggle on the defensive end. Elon plays at a slow pace but they’ve shown they can turn up the intensity and tempo when they need to (citing their comeback win against JMU, for example). Hofstra controlled the pace of play against a slow Delaware unit and should control it tonight since they’re expected to play from ahead. Elon won’t be able to prevent Hofstra’s star Jalen Ray, who went off for 34 points against Delaware, nor should they be able to prevent the Pride from collecting a ton of offensive rebounds like they always do. The Pride are also rated 54th nationally in converting second-chance opportunities. In a game that’s tough to pick a side, I’ll take a shot on the total flying over.

Milwaukee +3.5 (-105), 1 unit: Milwaukee walks into tonight’s matchup against Cleveland State with a little strut after winning their last 3 games, including two hard-fought OT wins. They also beat Cleveland State in an OT game back on January 23rd. The Vikings sit atop the Horizon League despite starting the season with a rather pedestrian offense, relying more on their defense to set the tone. Lately they’ve fared better, averaging 79.4 ppg in their last 5 contests, but that stat is a bit inflated thanks to a 3-OT win that led to 108 points in their last contest against Purdue Fort-Wayne. I’m on the Milwaukee side today for a few reasons. First, if the Vikings are struggling on defense against an offense like Purdue Fort-Wayne, they could have real issues against Milwaukee. The Panthers routinely score over 80 points and if they do it again, it’ll be hard for the Vikings to keep pace. Milwaukee also thrives away from their home court (ranked 25th in the country according to Haslametrics) and against mid-range shots (ranked 21st on Haslametrics). Cleveland State lives and dies by their mid-range shot, which plays right into the Panthers’ paws. A line of 3.5 means the favorite needs to beat the other team by more than one possession, which I think favors a feisty Milwaukee team that could easily win tonight. I’ll take the points with a resilient dog.

Georgia State -7 (-110), 1.5 units: This is an interesting game. The Appalachian State Mountaineers beat Georgia State twice earlier in the year, at the Panthers’ home court. In their third matchup the Panthers bested App State with ease, a contest which added to their current 8-game win streak. Now in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Final, the Mountaineers find themselves as an unlikely opponent to Georgia State, a much less surprising team to make it this far. This feels like a trap game for App State. Riding high off of comeback and OT wins in their last two games against Texas State and Coastal Carolina, the latter of which went late into the night, the Mountaineers have to turn around and face a rival with a lot of momentum. It’s tough to go against Appalachian State on their Cinderella like run, but teams eventually regress to their mean and I think this is a prime spot for that to happen. App State is among the worst defenses in the country at defending shot opportunities, ranked 325th in defensive field goal attempt rate. The difference in this game will be from beyond the arc and at the free throw line. The Panthers wins games by converting low-range shots into fouls and free throw points. In the two games they lost against App State, they shot badly from beyond the arc (17.% and 28.6% in those games). In the game they won– 44%. I’m betting on a well-coached and talented offensive unit to find opportunities to get open and convert from long distance and create a wealth of opportunities at the free-throw line. If that happens, Georgia State will easily cover and become the 2021 Sun Belt Champions. I think it does.

UNC Greensboro -5 (-115), 2.5 units: This is another situation where we have a surprising team in the conference championship in Mercer, going up against a team everyone expected to be there in UNC Greensboro. Look back at the two contests where Mercer faced UNCG and you’ll see that the Spartans were in full command of both contests. Mercer actually shot better than UNCG in the first game and still lost by 13 points. In the second game, the Spartans let the Bears create a little comeback thanks to some untimely turnovers but UNCG never let them take the game away, thus the 3 point margin. Mercer’s run has been impressive but they are not on the same level as UNC Greensboro. Getting just 5 points on the Spartans, which is right at that 2 possession lead area, feels like a very cheap price to pay. I’ll take the favorite all day– the Spartans flex tonight.

Lean- Houston -10 (-110): I think Joe Public could be all over Memphis in this spot since they’re a solid team getting a lot of points and KenPom ranks the Tigers as the #2 defense in the nation (it was #1 yesterday before Loyola-Chicago’s recent performance). What Joe Public might forget is Houston has been as dominant as any team in the country this year, especially at home (where they cover 76.9% of their games). I expect the Cougars to surprise Memphis today; it’s a huge uptick in class from what the Tigers are used to.

Florida wins (+190), 1 unit: The Gators beat down on the Volunteers 2 months ago and although it’s hard to judge how this one will go based on a game that far back, these teams have played relatively similar seasons since then. Tennessee gets the home spot but they’re led by a talented Freshman Jaden Springer– I’m not sure if I trust a freshie in a big spot like this against a tested Gators team. I’ll take a shot on the Gators to edge out the Volunteers again– they’re a better offense and they match up well.

Loyola-Chicago -8 (-110), 1.5 units: Drake is not in the same class as Loyola-Chicago. The Bulldogs struggled to get past Missouri State in their one conference tournament matchup while the Ramblers have been in cruise control, out-classing their way through the Missouri-Valley on a 5 game win streak, 2 of which were tournament beat-downs. The Ramblers’ defense is only improving, now ranked #1 in the nation according to KenPom in adjusted efficiency. We’ve seen a great effort and above-average season from Drake, but that ends today. I think the Ramblers impose their will before the big dance.

Michigan State +8.5 (-110), 1 unit: This is an absolute must-win game for the Spartans if they hope to keep their postseason bubble-hopes alive. For the Wolverines? I’m not sure how much they care. Michigan State has the talent to score; it’s execution that they struggle with. Hunter Dickinson could control and dominate this game again, but I trust Tom Izzo to contrive ways for his Spartans to get up and at least keep this game close with so much on the line. This is the game to do it.

The parents are coming to town so it’s a busy day for yours truly. These write-ups will be a little more concise today but trust that they come with the same quality research and rigor as all of my posts. I just hit 100 articles at TheOddsBreakers yesterday and I’m so proud to be a part of this badass site! To more wins and more money in your wallets as we tackle this huge Saturday with a ton of opportunity! (If you haven’t yet, check out my UFC 259 Best Value Bets before the big card tonight!)

Florida State -6.5 (-115), 2 units: I was able to grab the Seminoles last night at this line, and then it moved up to 8 and now I see it again at this number. GRAB IT. Florida State is the significantly better team and I know they’ve had their road woes but the Irish are in a real slump. The Seminoles know they have to play better on Saturdays and away from Tallahassee. Whether the Irish know they have to improve or not doesn’t matter to me. They don’t have the prowess or size to matchup with the Seminoles. Expect Florida State to show up big today.

UConn -9.5 (-105), 1.5 units: This number is a bit expensive for me but UConn’s hype is not hyperbole. Led by Bouknight, the Huskies play hard on defense and are very effective on the offensive end. Lately they’ve wiped the floor against every Big East foe not named Villanova and I expect they’ll do the same today. Georgetown isn’t the same team on the road and they have less to play for.

Marshall -12 (-110), 1 unit: This is one of two play-back games I’ll attack today. Marshall should have beaten Charlotte much more handedly last night. Expect them to assert more of their talent and pace on Charlotte and win by 15+.

Weber State -9.5 (-110), 1 unit: Playing back on Weber State just like I did with Marshall. Weber State should have blown out Northern Colorado in the first contest but the box scores shows just a 1 point victory. Yet the books still see the Wildcats as nearly a 10 point favorite. Hmm… yup- time to flex. Joe Bookie wants you to bet the Bears again.

Vermont (-115), 1.5 units: This is a pretty square pick. No matter which angle or trend or statistic I look at, it all favors Vermont at this number. They’re a significantly better team than Hartford, at home.

Ohio State -2 (-115), 2.5 units: This is my play of the day. Ohio State has managed to fall behind Illinois in the top 25 and if you think that sounds hokey, it’s because it is. I respect what the Illini have been able to do recently, their win against Michigan was impressive, but Ohio State is in a terrific spot here and they have all the reason and motivation to show their best selves today. Make no mistake about it- the Buckeyes ARE the better team and we’ll see significant improvements from them today, particularly on defense. I think this could get ugly.

Duke/NC over 148.5 (-110), 1.5 units: There’s too much distance between the first game and today to think the defenses will suddenly step up and completely change the flow of this game. The offenses will win the battle more often than not and I think we see a back and forth slugfest where the Tar Heels edge out Duke for a second straight victory. The eye test tells me NC’s guards match up really well against the Blue Devils.