We have a great show for you today! The deputy editor of sports betting at #ESPN Mr. David Bearman was kind enough to join us on a snow day to break down the Super Bowl lines and prop market for your #SuperBowlLV betting pleasures! First, Kiev talks about his super bowl thoughts on how the game flow will go from kickoff to the Gatorade bath. Next, David comes on and the guys get right into some trade scenarios with Deshawn Watson and the Miami Dolphins. Next, David and Kiev talk about the super bowl lines and if they are properly priced. Then, the guys get right into the super bowl prop market and give out a bunch of prop plays for your super bowl sports betting extravaganza! Should you need any college basketball games broken down for this weekend in our next podcast, please tweet us @TheOddsBreakers. Have a wonderful weekend!
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Michigan State has been in a downward spiral since their Covid Pause and being down a big man in Gabe Brown to this disease recently hasn’t really helped them. He will be missing in this matchup vs a good rebounding team. Iowa has been on a downward spiral themselves losing 2 games in a row to good defensive teams in Indiana and Illinois. Iowa lost CJ Fredrick during the Indiana game and he is questionable to play tonight. The big thing that I look at here is that both of these teams play very fast meaning the better team gets margin and the inferior team gives up more points. Watching Michigan State lose to Rutgers by over 30 points and then to Ohio State by 18 points tells me that they are really struggling lately and we should keep riding the fade wave. If CJ Fredrick plays to night it will be a bonus to this line. I think that Iowa could easily cover this spread but there is also a safeguard play that I like. If Michigan State has any chance in covering this line, I think that the over hits here. I aslo think that there is a much better chance that Iowa covers and the over hits than if Iowa doesn’t cover and this game goes under. The only chance that Michigan State has is if they can put up some serious points. I have Iowa winning this game 87-73.
Iowa -1.5 – 1.5 star premium play and over 155 – 1 star play
Baylor vs Texas +5.5 O/U 144.5
Who’s not excited for this game? The best team in the Big 12 plays the second best team in the Big 12 at their house. I am very high on this Texas team here because they are tall, athletic and very experienced. They are coming off a loss 1 week ago to an Oklahoma team who was “gifted” 34 free throws. Texas had their SEC game cancelled on Saturday due to Covid so they are dying to get back on the court and prove something. Andrew Jones leads this team with 14.3 points per game while 3 other guys average double digits. Baylor is the best team in the nation according to my power ratings and somehow they play with speed and amazing defense. You usually do not get both. One advantage that Texas will have is rebounding the ball and scoring down low due to their size. Baylor should have the shooting the ball averaging an amazing 50.2% FG. Both of these teams play much faster than their Tempo shows. They both rank around 130-150 in Tempo while both teams are in the top 62 in second per possession. This is where I see an edge on the game. Both teams will be desperate to put up points and defense will take a backseat to offense and speed. I have this game Baylor winning 77 to 73 but I would not be shocked if it is neck and neck at the end.
Wake Forest +5.5 (-110), 1 unit: This feels like a big choke-spot for the Irish. After an impressive win and offensive performance on the road against Pitt, Notre Dame heads back home, surely full of confidence, to take on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons. The Demon Deacons are 2nd to last only above Boston College in the ACC. I don’t think Wake is very good, and it’s easy to see why Notre Dame is the favorite. One thing the Deacons are good at is shooting from beyond the arc (ranked in the top 100 in efficiency and top 40 in attempts) and free throw percentage, both factors that could keep them in the game against an Irish defense that Haslametrics ranks dead last in the country in defensive field goal attempt rate vs. the average opponent. That should open a lot of opportunities for Wake Forest to get up more 3s. The Demon Deacons have an opportunity to keep this one close; I think they take advantage.
Maryland -2.5 (-110), 1 unit: This is another spot play for me on Maryland. They’re at home after nearly a week off and just faced a tough loss against a better opponent. Maryland is much better at beating teams that are on par with their talent and depth; insert Purdue. Last time out the Boilermakers squeaked by the Terps, winning 73-70 back on Christmas. Purdue out-rebounded and far out-shot the Terps from beyond the arc at over 45% from 3-point land. I expect some regression to the mean. Maryland needs to start stacking up wins if they want to stay in the mix and this is a good revenge spot, against a very evenly-matched team, to get it done.
Baylor -5.5 (-110), 2 units: My great aunt, who was more like my grandmother growing up, was famous for many sayings. One of my favorites was, “I may be dumb but I’m not stupid.” That’s how I feel tonight betting on Baylor. It may be as square as it gets, but what can I say? I’m not an idiot. I can’t step in front of Baylor here. If you’re wondering how Baylor has fared on the road in big games, look back at the box scores when the Bears faced Oklahoma State, Texas Tech and TCU. You’ll only gain more confidence in Baylor. I think they left their last game a little disappointed– Auburn stayed within distance– and I look for them to rebound in a big way against in-state rival Texas. The Longhorns look like they’re getting back Shaka Smart, which is a big addition, but I don’t think it’ll matter. The best bettors play the number, not just the side. This number is too sweet to pass up.
Iowa -9.5 (-105), 1.5 units: This game sets up really bad for Michigan State. The Hawkeyes are fresh off two very disappointing losses, headed home, and they’re big play, fast-paced offense is going up against the subpar Spartans. What a great spot to get things right. The Spartans aren’t the same since Cassius Winston and others left, and I don’t think they can keep pace with Iowa on either side of the ball tonight. I expect a blowout.
Yours truly was 2-0 last night, and I’m 13-6-1 the last 7 days on my NBA bets. Let’s keep this pace going!
Clippers/Nets under 243.5 (-110), 1.5 units: The Nets are on a historic tear offensively, averaging over 122 ppg. What’s lost in that equation is that Brooklyn is on pace to have one of the worst defenses in modern NBA history, scoring a 119.9 rating according to ESPN, which would be the worst of all time, and allowing over 117 ppg (only the Kings and Wizards allow more). Ah, the modern NBA product– no wonder why vicious defenders of the past like Charles Barkley roll their eyes at these young guns. All fluff, no toughness. After the Nets’ last game against the Wizards, which went for 295 points (unreal), I’d say Nets totals are due for some regression to the under. And I think this is a great spot for it to happen. After a last second loss against Washington, don’t you think the Nets know they have to get better on defense? How do you score 146 points and not win? I expect Brooklyn to take their defense more seriously tonight. I also love the under because of who they’re facing. The Clippers are second only to Milwaukee in point differential, and they’re 4th best in points allowed per game (106.7). “The Claw” and company know how to shut down their opponent. Not to mention the Clippers allowed way too many points 2 nights ago against the Knicks, not exactly an offensive juggernaut, so they should be due for a little regression, too.
When the stars come out tonight, this game will have a playoff atmosphere as two of the NBA’s elite teams jockey for pride in a primetime spot. That usually amounts to stiffer defense and more nerves on offense. Taking an under in a Nets game is always scary, but I think this is a good opportunity to do it.
Pacers -5.5 (-110), 1 unit: Don’t look now, but the Memphis Grizzlies are quietly on a 7 game winning streak and sitting on top of the NBA’s Southwest Division. They’re also pretty banged up. Even with all their recent wins, the Grizzlies are in the bottom third of the NBA in points per game. They have a top 5 defense, but their lack of depth means the dam will break eventually, especially against the NBA’s better offenses. Two of the more productive Memphis players, Grayson Allen and Jonas Valanciunas, are under COVID protocol and may not play tonight. This is also the Grizzlies 3rd game in 4 nights, so unless you’re Lebron, you may start feeling some fatigue (the Grizzlies have the third youngest roster in the NBA at 24.4 years old on average–I think it’s fair to say these kids don’t have the emotional and mental toughness of a Lebron). The Pacers, on the other hand, are in a very good spot. Back home after 2 days rest, Indiana is coming off two tough losses, but they’re getting healthier. When they play well, they play as a balanced unit. They exemplified that balance against Memphis in their last faceoff and won by some margin. It’s likely they’ll miss T.J. Warren tonight, which isn’t ideal, but the Pacers need to get off the schneid and they’re in good position to do so– I’m on Indiana to cover tonight.
Blazers/Wizards over 240 (-110), 2 units: As much as I blasted the Nets for their struggles on defense and how they’re due for some regression (and more unders), I think the opposite is true for these two teams. The Blazers and Wizards have known for some time that they suck on defense, and nothing changes. Nothing changes because I don’t think they have any answers. Both of these squads rank in the bottom 5 in points allowed per game, and in the top 6 in points scored per game. Each team is full of aggressive shooters like Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum, Bradley Beal, Russel Westbrook, and so on, not to mention their benches that can score, too. I wish it was less predictable and felt less square, but I can’t not take advantage. Look for another over to soar as great scorers will have a ton of opportunities and openings all night.
GA Tech +4.5 (-105), 1.5 units: The books can’t make their mind up on this line, but I’ll take +4.5 at a lower price. Georgia Tech and Louisville are two teams trending in opposite directions. GA Tech comes off a great showing Saturday, upsetting conference giant Florida State. The Louisville Cardinal, on the other hand, feel like a great fade candidate. Losers of 3 of their last 4, the Cardinal have gone from a superior defensive team, allowing only 38.8% from the field before mid-January, to a team that’s now allowing 45.6% in their last 4 games. Meanwhile, Georgia Tech has been a tough team to beat on the road, their offense is only getting more efficient and ranks higher than Louisville, and they’ve covered 5 of their last 6 outings. This line would be pick-em if it wasn’t for the Louisville spot, but the value is still on the Yellow Jackets. I think this could be a play-on team down the stretch, especially as a dog. I’ll take a shot on Georgia Tech, and may sprinkle a little for the ML win.
Drake -17.5 (-110), 1 unit: Is this me being a little sour after yesterday’s ATS loss? Maybe. The fact that Drake AND the Utah Jazz both broke their ATS streaks when I had their side didn’t amount to my best Sunday, but I have to like this line even more after Drake’s disappointing showing. In no way are the Illinois State Redbirds on the same level, in any regard, of the Drake Bulldogs. I think Drake makes a statement today, after what was very nearly an OT loss and very poor showing Sunday afternoon. This is how you’re taught to bet– take advantage of a better spot and a better number when a team’s motivation should be much greater– God help me.
SE Missouri State +7.5 (-105), 1 unit: Talk about needing help from above, check out this bet on the Southeast Missouri State Redhawks. Writing about the Redbirds and Redhawks in back-to-back articles has to be some kind of sad record, but nonetheless here we are. SEMO takes on Murray State tonight and I just don’t see where these teams are that different. Murray State has absolutely owned the Redhawks in their series matchups, but that only gives the underdog more motivation to play their best basketball… right? The Redhawks have won 2 straight and this is their third straight home game. They looked particularly able on defense lately, allowing only 62 ppg in their last 5 games. Murray State is 0-7 when scoring less than 71 points this year, so if the Redhawks can continue to clamp down, this should be a close contest until the end. I like the dog to make it interesting.
Memphis -9 (-110), 1.5 units: I think the Memphis defense will be too much for UCF in this one. Ranked 4th overall on KenPom and 3rd overall on Barttorvik in adjusted defense, the Memphis Tigers allow under 63 ppg (and have allowed only 60 ppg in their last 5 contests). The UCF Knights are a battle tested team, ranked #7 in adjusted strength of schedule on KenPom. They’re an above-average defensive team, but a very average team on offense. They’re also in a bad spot. After coming off two straight games where they overperformed, they lost a heartbreaker in OT Saturday against conference foe Wichita State, who sits at #2 in the American Athletic. Now they travel to Memphis, who’s coming off 4 days of rest and last lost in a close game to another conference opponent in SMU. UCF relies on 3 point shooting to anchor their offense– a perfect setup for Memphis. Memphis is exceptionally good on 3-point defense, allowing only 28.9% from beyond the arc. They also allow under 87 points per 100 possessions, another top 10 defensive designation. I think the Tigers create some distance in the second and pull away.
Grambling State -24.5 (-115), 1.15 units: The Mississippi State Valley Delta Devils, that’s right that’s a real college basketball team, are getting absolutely blitzed by everyone they face. We’re not entirely sure what’s going on, but the Delta Devils are a winless team out of the Southwestern Athletic Conference and they rank dead last in adjusted offense and defense on KenPom, Barttorvik, and Haslametrics. The point is, this is the worst team in Division 1 basketball. While Grambling State isn’t necessarily a Division 1 or even conference giant, this line indicates the level of disparity between these two teams. According to ESPN, the stout Grambling State defense has held opposing offenses to a field goal percentage of 39.3 percent, the 24th-lowest mark in Division I. Mississippi Valley State has allowed opponents to shoot 51.9 percent through 14 games (ranking the Delta Devils 344th). That sounds like a recipe for a blowout to me. What a crazy line, and maybe even crazier that I’m playing on it.
Tomorrow is a busy day for yours truly so I’m handicapping and picking my plays now. There’s a chance I add more, but here are my leans/plays for Monday’s NBA slate.
Lean: Hawks +6 (-110): I handicapped this line at 6 on the dot, so I think this is the right number. But it’s early and this line could be on the move. If it goes up to 7 or 8, I’d be on the Hawks to cover, especially if Anthony Davis is out. This could be a rest opportunity for Lebron, too. This isn’t a particularly great spot for either team, but I love how Atlanta looked last time out. They’re a deep roster that can score quick and they play solid defense. Although no match against the defending champs in big game situations, Atlanta could easily upset an unmotivated Lakers team; LAL is about to play their 7th straight road game. Yikes… Talk about a grind. Tune into this line and play on it if it rises.
Bucks -10 (-110), 1.5 units: This line is right where I thought it would be, but I still think the Bucks surpass 10. Look, the Bucks have looked absolutely awful. Just awful. But they got a little rest, they’re back at home, and trust me– they’re still leaps and bounds better than Portland. Without Lillard making one high pressure shot after another, where would this team be? Dame is the best thing to happen to Portland, but after such a triumphant win (and a game they should have lost), this is a terrible spot for the Blazers to contend with one of the NBA’s best teams, even if the Bucks haven’t played like it recently. Expect an aggressive, big game for Giannis and company. Portland’s porous defense will be the perfect anecdote for Milwaukee’s recent struggles.
Rockets -4.5 (-110), 1.5 units: OKC is a solid team trying to find an identity but this guy’s gonna keep riding that Houston-train until the wheels fall off. I love this team post-Harden. Great defense, playing with an attitude, and true superstar talent with Victor Oladipo and John Wall. No Harden, no problem. The Rockets are my favorite team in the NBA right now and it’s because of how consistent they’ve been, and I don’t think they’re close to their full potential. I also don’t think OKC is the team to stifle their momentum. This feels a bit square, but so be it.
SMU +10.5 (-110), 1.5 units: The Houston Cougars have been incredibly impressive, winners of 7 straight and climbing the national ranks as they display one of the best defenses in the country and an offense that scores over 74 ppg. They rank 17th in adjusted offense and 3rd in adjusted defense according to KenPom. Next to Gonzaga and Baylor, they’ve been one of college basketball’s most dominant squads. Unfortunately, I think they’re just due for some negative regression. Insert SMU. Just below Houston in the American Athletic Conference sit the SMU Mustangs, a very solid team who would love to take out their foe. The Mustangs rank better than Houston in 2 point FG % and 3-point % and, according to KenPom, have faced virtually the same difficulty of opponents (Houston ranks 104th/SMU ranks 108th). They also score more than Houston at 77.5 ppg, and they’re one of the best teams in the country against 2 point field goals (ranked 17th on Barttorvik). This is a great spot for a highly motivated SMU team to contend with the conference leader, and frankly this game is on my upset-radar. I’m on the dog. PS– Both teams are coming off long 20+ day layoffs, so I also lean under 138 for a game that should start slow. A first half under could work, too.
Drake -18.5 (-110), 1 unit: The undefeated Drake Bulldogs take on Missouri Valley Conference bottom-feeder Illinois State, and their deserving of this big line. The Bulldogs score an incredible 82+ ppg and allow only 61 ppg. They’re also shooting over 50% from the field and Barttorvik ranks them 3rd in the country in 3-point efficiency. It’s probably fair to say, at some point, that Drake is due for negative regression. This just isn’t the spot. The Bulldogs are at home and Illinois State won’t have the talent or gumption to hold back the conference leader. I’m on Drake to win huge.
Sam Houston State +6 (-105), 1.5 units: Sam Houston State and Stephen F. Austin are two very evenly matched teams. SHSU scores 81 ppg, SFA scores 82 ppg. SHSU allows 71 ppg, SFA allows 72 ppg. And they’ve both had a layoff of around 3 weeks. One big statistical difference is strength of opponent. KenPom ranks SFA’s strength of schedule at 343rd, one of the easiest in the country. Sam Houston State has played the 141st toughest schedule, a considerable difference than their opponent. This is a big in-conference game and the Bearkats will be play over-their-heads to prove their merit. SHSU has won their last 5 road games, and I love their side today. Interesting stat: According to ESPN, the Sam Houston defense has forced opponents into turnovers on an impressive 24.6 percent of all possessions, which ranks the Bearkats 15th among Division I teams.
UNLV/Nevada 1H under 67 (-110), 1.5 units: Mountain West foes face off in the late slate Sunday as UNLV and Nevada jockey for position in their conference, and we love the under in the first half. Both teams play solid defense. In their last 5 games, the Rebels have only allowed 56.8 ppg. In the same span, the Wolfpack have allowed 71 ppg, but the Rebels aren’t the most offensively efficient team (ranked 103rd on KenPom), so they shouldn’t struggle too much. Both squads average around 67 ppg allowed on the season. UNLV and Nevada are also coming off significant layoffs– UNLV hasn’t played since Jan 16th, Nevada hasn’t played since Jan 9th. That usually means sloppy offensive play and a ton of missed shots and turnovers, especially in the first half. I’ll favor a slow-starting, in-conference game to fly well under 67 before any team gains a rhythm.
Started off our weekend going 3-0 on yesterday’s NBA picks. Can we make it an undefeated weekend in the association? We’ll see! More picks below–
Jazz win (even), 2 units: The Jazz have been on an absolute TEAR. Winners of 11 straight, Utah has been incredibly productive on offense and incredibly stifling on defense. The Jazz have the best record in the NBA and, not coincidentally, the best point differential at +8.3, a full .6 points ahead of the next best team. Recently they’ve been without star Donovan Mitchell due to concussion protocol and it hasn’t mattered– Ingles, Bogdanovic and Gobert have stepped up with high percentage, consistent offense. Gobert has also been supremely dominant at the rim, averaging over 14 rebounds and nearly 3 blocks per game. The Jazz are listing Mitchell as questionable, which I think means he’ll play, which would only make this a stronger take. The Nuggets have been playing really well, and I knew they were due for positive regression, but Utah matches up really well against their stars. Then again Utah is simply is out-matching everyone these days. Regardless of the spot, which may slightly favor Denver (at home, off a recent loss), I can’t step in front of Utah today. This is one of the most impressive NBA runs in recent memory.
Nets/Wizards over 243 (-110), 1.5 units &
Bradley Beal over 31.5 pts (-114), 2 units: I think it’s fair to say the Nets have found their rhythm. In their last contest, Brooklyn scored 76 points in the first half and 71 in the second (that’s 147 total, if you’re counting), and that was without Kevin Durant. Unsurprisingly, he Nets lead the league in scoring, averaging 121 ppg. It looks like Harden could rest today, they’re listing him as questionable, but I don’t think that’ll matter. If anything, sitting one of Brooklyn’s big three may help make their offense more fluid. Today the Nets face the worst defense in the league in Washington and trust me, that won’t change. Russel Westbrook will be motivated to play against his former teammates, but he’s isn’t a huge difference maker on defense. This total is sky high for a reason, and I still don’t think it’s high enough.
Bradley Beal continues to lead the NBA in scoring and today he puts the Wizards squarely on his shoulders again against the best scoring team in the association. Washington will be playing catch-up all game, and I love a fast tempo, high scoring game to equal a big performance from Beal. I was surprised to see how low this number was. I think he scores over 40, with ease.
Rockets win (EVEN), 2 units: This line initially posted Houston as the dog and, appropriately, has moved them to the favorite. I love this spot for the Rockets. Houston has been playing incredibly solid defense. Although some of their opponents haven’t been the class of the NBA, their recent outing against Portland was really impressive. The Blazers were in a great spot but they fended them off over and over again, not allowing Portland’s stars to change the pace of the game. The Rockets have the star power to score efficiently, especially with an angry Oladipo looking to prove his worth, and a defense that just keeps getting better. The Pelicans’ win over Milwaukee last night was impressive, but make no mistake– New Orleans isn’t on the same planet as the Bucks. One way you know that game was an aberration was the shooting from Lonzo Ball. He may have the ugliest shot in the game (next to his brother, and maybe Dwight Howard), and I assure you his shooting won’t be that crisp tonight. I love the Rockets to win.
Suns/Mavericks over 215.5 (-110), 1 unit: Is this the game where the Mavs finally wake up? Maybe. One thing’s for sure, Luka Doncic is beginning to put this team on his shoulders, which means more aggressive play from the Slovenian star and should mean more scoring. The Suns seem to be getting better every week, with Chris Paul leading a fluid and effective offense even without their star Devin Booker and other key players out. Luka and company will push hard for a win tonight, so I like one desperate offense and one effective offense to send this game over.
Warriors -5 (-110), 1.5 units: I probably would have bet the Warriors at -10 tonight. I’d understand that line. Why? Because the Warriors have been underwhelming and Detroit just won the biggest game of their life against the Lakers. That was a horrendous spot for LAL after a hard-fought game against Philadelphia, a game where I thought the Lakers would still get up for. Anthony Davis’ absence didn’t help, but all the stars aligned for Detroit to pull out the win. Not tonight. I expect Steph Curry to come out aggressive and maybe, just maybe, Draymond game can stop committing technical fouls and actually play a full game. That would help. Either way, I love Golden State in a prime situational spot.
I think that both teams will be motivated here because neither team has a big non-conference win. Both teams are coming off of a nice streak of 2 – 3 wins. ‘
Florida is the better shooting team for sure but West Virginia has the better defense.
What I will say is that I think that the Big 12 is much better than the SEC at basketball in general and I will be targeting Press Virginia here. Both teams are pretty good at shooting 3s but West Virginia’s 3 point defense is much better allowing only 29.5% from 3 while Florida allows 34.6%
West Virginia doesn’t shoot the ball well but they clean up well ranking 12th in offensive rebounds. West Virginia also has the better assist to turnover rate at 1.2 to .9
West Virginia -4.5 – 2 star premium shared play
Minnesota vs Purdue -2.5 O/U 139
This is a pretty important game for both teams to stay in the hunt to be dancing in March. Both of these teams are coming off stinkers on their home court with Purdue losing bad to Michigan and Minnesota losing bad to Maryland. These teams are closely ranked on Kenpom around 30th in the country and both teams seem to have their struggles. Minnesota doesn’t shoot the ball well while Purdue tends to turn the ball over. Minnesota is great at turnovers only giving up 11 per game while Purdue is at 13. Purdue is the better shooting team at 52.1% to Minnesota’s 46.9%. The Gophers shoot better Free throws and Purdue shoots better 3s. The key here for me is the home road splits for each team. Minnesota scores a massive 82 points per game at home while only 63 on the road. Now some of those stats are padded due to facing a very easy home non-conference schedule but the 63 on the road include the big 10 teams and it is not enough especially when looking at a total of 139. Purdue has some big wins vs Ohio State and Maryland at home while Minnesota has yet to win on the road. They key matchup is Travian Williams stopping Liem Robbins. Robbins is Minnesota’s center and best three point shooter. I know that Stephan Stephanovic is out for Purdue but they have some depth that can make up for his shooting. If Williams can get out to the perimiter and slow down Robbins then this game could be a blow out. Purdue has a freshman named Jaden Ivey that has been shining lately and he could go off in a game like this. Lay the points with the Boilermakers.
Purdue -2.5 – 2 star premium play
Iowa State vs Mississippi State -9 O/U 140
Iowa State has had some serious Covid issues and they was another sweep of it that took out 5 or 6 players last game vs Oklahoma State and they could certainly miss this game again. This line is somewhat of a free roll depending on Iowa State’s health
I have to question Iowa State’s motivation here at this point being 2-8. Even a win here won’t get them in any tournament.
Mississippi State is one of the lower SEC teams but I think that they will be trying to get one last non-conference victory and make a run to reach the bubble by March.
Even though the Bulldogs are a bad team, the Clones are worse and their season is already over.
