Wake Forest returns a lot of production this year on both offense (74%) and defense (69%) for 72% returning production overall. Their offense was extremely explosive last year as they averaged 465.8 yards per game and 6.29 yards per play. Their defense left a bit to be desired, but the offense was able to make up for that. With returning that much production on defense, they should be a bit improved this year. Wake Forest also returns their leading rusher to go along with an upperclassman stacked offense and defense as they only start 3 underclassmen on offense and 2 on defense. The wild card here will be their true freshman QB Sam Hartman. I would expect a conservative game plan here to get him into game action. They were a run heavy offense last year and I don’t see that changing in the early part of the season.
Tulane returns a lot of their offensive production (86%), but not a lot of their defensive production (44%). Their total returning production is 65%. The major concern here is their defense. They didn’t have a good defense last year as they ranked 98th giving up an average of 436.1 yards per game and 6.68 yards per play. They also start 5 underclassmen on defense. The bright side for Tulane will be their offense early on this year. They return starting QB Jonathan Banks. He’s a senior and second year starter for this team so we’ll see if they open up the offense for him at all. He’s a dual threat QB who mostly ran last year in a run heavy offensive scheme. Tulane also lost Dontrell Hilliard who was their leading rusher at 1,091 yards for the season. Darius Bradwell will have some big shoes to fill, but he did average 6.2 yards per carry last year. We’ll see if he can keep up that kind of production this year.
With Wake Forest being led by upperclassmen on both sides of the ball, I think they’ll be able to protect QB Sam Hartman from making big mistakes in this game. A run heavy offense with an improved defense should see Wake Forest pulling this game out, especially with the defensive woes Tulane could see early in the season. Also, since we haven’t seen a ton of returning production on Tulane’s defense, and with both defenses being a bit shaky, we’ll take a look at the total on this one. Take Wake Forest -6 for 2U. Also take Over 55 for 1U.
Miami @ LSU (+3.5)
Miami should have a distinct advantage in this game as they return 68% of their offensive production and 70% of their defensive production. Miami should be improved on both sides of the ball and will want to make up for their 3-game losing streak at the end of last season. Malik Rosier should also be improved and not make the bad mistakes he was prone to last year, especially at the end of the year. Miami also got a new indoor practice facility this year. We’ll see if it has any advantage going forward. Miami also starts only 1 underclassman on offense and defense. That experience should also carry an advantage.
LSU only returns 39% of their offense and 57% of their defense. They are starting 7 underclassmen on offense and 6 on defense. They will be trying to replace their QB Danny Etling & RB Derrius Guice. They did bring in Joe Burrow as a transfer from Ohio St to help out at QB. This team will be very inexperienced in the skill positions, and Ed Orgeron is not a good coach in my opinion.
As I stated in the video, I do believe the neutral field is an advantage for Miami as they skip having to go to Death Valley for a night game. Mark Richt should also coach circles around Ed Orgeron. Take Miami -3.5 for 2U.
Well Lane Kiffen sure proved 1 thing last year. That is that he can seriously turn around a program and coach some college football! I knew I saw good in this team when they played my Badgers pretty close throughout most of the game last year. Averaging 40 points and 6.8 Yards per play while opponents averaged 22 points and 5.2 Yards per play, Florida Atlantic was the class of Conference USA. Now lets not kid ourselves here. They are playing a top 10 Power 5 school in Oklahoma and that is usually something that would shy you away from making this bet BUT, Florida Atlantic returns a whopping 90% production in their defense. Florida Atlantic has to find a new QB but they have some options and return much of a great offense. Baker Mayfield is gone making Oklahoma in a similar position and will be starting over with QB Kyler Murray a Texas A&M transfer that also was a top 10 draft pick in baseball whatever that means to this season. The offensive kicker here is that Florida Atlantic received QB Chris Robinson from OKLAHOMA and just maybe his knowledge of the Oklahoma offense will really help the Owls here. The real question is how good will Oklahoma be on defense? Oklahoma ranked 67 last year in total Defense giving up 5.8 yards per play this years team lost 48% of their production… The real deciding factor to bank on here is the huge hangover Oklahoma has from losing that heartbreaking game at Georgia and I am a believe that it will affect this game. FAU +21 and sprinkle the money line
UNC vs Cal – Cal -6.5 might be 7.5 now
So I know this is a revenge game for North Carolina being beaten at home by Cal the first game of the year 35-30, but that won’t be enough against Justin Wilcox and this team that was 8-4 ATS last year. Both teams were pretty identical last year in yards per play both on Defense and in Offense but Cal had the harder schedule. Not only does North Carolina have a huge travel spot going across the country to play this game, they also are only returning 1 Starter on offensive line. That is bad news for them Vs Justin Wilcox blitz happy defensive schemes. It also looks like starting QB Chazz Surratt will be suspended the first four games along with their top D-Ends Malik Carney and Tomon Fox. NOT GOOD. Cal ranks 19th in returning production with 10 players on the offense itself. I have Cal power rated about 6 points over UNC. Cal by 12. Cal – 6.5 1U
Northwestern vs Purdue -3.5
I have Purdon’t as a Purdooooo type team this year. Both teams 9-4 ATS last year. Second year under Jeff Brohm returning 77% of their offensive production to Northwestern’s 67%. A glaring fact and look into this number is that it counts NU QB Clayton Thorson is returning from a Late December torn ACL injury but I can’t imagine him being ready week 1. Northwestern also lost their top running back Justin Jackson to the draft. Both teams return most of their O line and the Cats edge out Purdue in returning defense at 61% to Purdue’s 41%. Because of the Thorson injury, I am not as concerned for Purdue’s lack of defense here. I like Purdue by 6 points with Thorson and 8 without. Purdue – 3.5 2U
NM State vs Minnestota -17.5 Thursday Game
Minnesota head coach P.J. Fleck announced his team’s starting quarterback on Monday and has selected true freshman Zack Annexstad. The IMG Academy product edged out red-shirt freshman Tanner Morgan for the role. Now this gopher team is still in rebuild on second year but returns over 2/3 of their production. Rodney Smith returns and Running back and Thomas Barber on Linebacker will be playing on sundays in the NFL. On the other hand New Mexico State got blown out at home on national tv against Wyoming and has a very short week to prepare for this game.. The Aggies averaged -.5 rushing yards per play and only 144 yards passing. They might be the worst team in FBS.
Florida Atlantic vs Oklahoma -21
Well Lane Kiffen sure proved 1 thing last year. That is that he can seriously turn around a program and coach some college football! I knew I saw good in this team when they played my Badgers pretty close throughout most of the game last year. Averaging 40 points and 6.8 Yards per play while opponents averaged 22 points and 5.2 Yards per play, Florida Atlantic was the class of Conference USA. Now lets not kid ourselves here. They are playing a top 10 Power 5 school in Oklahoma and that is usually something that would shy you away from making this bet BUT, Florida Atlantic returns a whopping 90% production in their defense. Florida Atlantic has to find a new QB but they have some options and return much of a great offense. Baker Mayfield is gone making Oklahoma in a similar position and will be starting over with QB Kyler Murray a Texas A&M transfer that also was a top 10 draft pick in baseball whatever that means to this season. The offensive kicker here is that Florida Atlantic received QB Chris Robinson from OKLAHOMA and just maybe his knowledge of the Oklahoma offense will really help the Owls here. The real question is how good will Oklahoma be on defense? Oklahoma ranked 67 last year in total Defense giving up 5.8 yards per play this years team lost 48% of their production… The real deciding factor to bank on here is the huge hangover Oklahoma has from losing that heartbreaking game at Georgia and I am a believe that it will affect this game. FAU +21 and sprinkle the money line
Akron vs Nebraska -24
Akron returns a ton of defense and their QB Kato Nelson. Nebraska returns 70% of a bad defense. Both teams will have a new QB. Akron returns 87% of defense. I love Scott Frost but this first game of his should not be a blowout. I have this game in my power rankings with home field Nebraska by 17. Akron +24 1U
BYU vs Arizona -12
Well if you listened to previous podcasts then you know I am high on Arizona. New coach Kevin Sumlin will look to make a statement with his huge weapon in Kalil Tate. The Defense returns a staggering 79% and retains coordinator Marcel Yates who worked with Sumlin in the past. I think there is good reason for this and I am looking for better numbers here. In the mean time BYU returns a bad offense a mediocre D, and a Quarterback controversy. BYU should not be able to keep up with Arizona and this could be a blowout. AZ – 12 and I like it to 14 1U
Indiana vs FIU +10.5
Indiana doesn’t return a ton of production but FIU returns even less. At least Indiana returns Peyton Ramsey at QB. We also forget about Nick Westbrook who was hurt and out for the season the first game last year. FIU will be replacing a QB with a graduate transfer James Morgan. Most of all this is a pure power ratings play favoring the Big 10 by 14 points… Indiana -10.5 1U
UNLV vs USC O/U 62
So we know that USC returns pretty much nobody on offense and about 2/3 of defense. UNLV on the other hand is a ground team that runs the ball 64% of the time. USC was looked at as a reload type team but I think it may be too much to ask to have to replace all of those skill positions this early in the season. I definitely like USC to win big vs this Running team of UNLV but I also think USC will run the ball a ton since they have a new QB. There will not be enough time to get to 62 points. Under 62 1u
Premium: Michigan vs Notre Dame O/U 48
So we know that Michigan has maybe the number 1 returning defense in all of football this year, but we cannot ignore the fact that Notre Dame only allowed 21.5 points per game last year and 5 yards per play. This is with that Miami blow out game factored in. With Michigan only allowing 18 points per game last year and returning Notre Dame is a run first type offense that returns 96% production on defense! i love this Under 48 for 2U
Premium: Ole Miss vs Texas Tech O/U now at 67.5
Ok, you may think i am crazy here but if you look inside the advanced stats you will agree with me. Texas Tech has been an over darling for years!!!! But what happened last year? They only went over their total 5 out of 13 times. The reason for this was they were 124th in Red Zone efficiency at 68%. The Red Raiders do play fast at a top 9 pace but on the other hand Ole miss plays SLOWWWWWW. Matt Luke’s Ole miss team last year only average about 70 plays per game and with all the controversy last year was able to finish the season winning 3 of the last 4. On the other hand Texas Tech majorly improved on defense giving up 32 points per game down from 43.5 in 2016. PLUS they return 10 out of 11 starters on D. Texas Tech only returns 5 starters on offense and only 1 skill position! Jett Duffey will have his hands full at QB the first few games as a sophomore. This game will be played on a neutral site at NGR stadium in Houston giving a slight advantage to the Red Raiders and that stronger defense. Under and wait until 68.5 or more
Other Notable games
Washington vs Auburn -2.5
If it goes back to +3 i’ll possibly take Washington’s side. Gonna wait right before game time and see about a 3.5
Va Tech vs Florida State -7.5 – Good game for me to watch.
Louisville vs Alabama -25 – I think these QBs are still not comfortable so wait it out.
SHARP ACTION REPORT:
Northwestern vs Purdue -3.5 to -2.5 NU down from +3.5 to +2.5 A Little bit of sharp but I disagree with that move
Wake Forest vs Tulane +7 to +6.5 – Tulane from 7 to +6.5 Sharp
Syracuse vs Western Michigan +5.5 to +6 – Syracuse from -5.5 to -6
Army vs Duke -10.5 to -13.5 Duke
Colorado vs Colorado state +6 to +7.5 Sharp on Colorado
Ole Miss vs Texas tech +1.5 to -2.5 Sharp on Tex Tech
Texas vs Maryland +10.5 to +12.5 Sharp on Texas
Umass vs Boston College -20 to -18.5 Public Move, Sharp money is on BC. Public remembers them playing Tennessee and Miss State last year
UNLV vs USC -27 to -24.5 Sharp on UNLV
Marshall vs Miami Ohio -1.5 – 2.5 Miami Oh
Washington vs Auburn -3 to -2.5 Washington Sharp
Indiana vs FIU +12 to +10.5 FIU – I disagree with the move and agree with the sports books
UTSA vs ASU -17 to -18.5 ASU took sharp
Akron vs Nebraska -20.5 to -24 Nebraska I Disagree with the move
Totals:
Tulane vs Wake Forest 61 to 56 but sharp on the Over
Syracuse vs Western Michigan 64 to 64.5 Over
Utah State vs Michigan State 50.5 to 49.5 but sharps on over
Ole Miss vs Texas Tech 62 to 67.5 but Sharps on the under
Washington vs Auburn 54 to 48.5 Sharps hit under
UNLV vs USC 60 to 62.5 but Sharps on the Under
Middle Tennesee St vs Vanderbilt – 57.5 to 57 but sharps on the Over
BYU vs Arizona 62.5 to 60.5 Sharps on under but I am not touching
Most Lopsided move West Virginia +9.5 to -10
If there is a look ahead spot it would be Iowa cause they host Iowa state next week but that didn’t work last year
The strength of both of these team relies on the offensive side of the Ball. Wake Forest is returning 74% of offensive production.Tulane brings back 86% of their offensive production. On the flip side Wake Forest returns 69% on D and Tulane only brings back 44% of production. An immediate red flag for me.Willie Fritz option attack should give the Wake Forest defense all it can handle with experienced Jonathan Banks under center and a plethora of talent around him what does not bode well for Wake is that teams averaged over 185 ypg on the ground. Wake Forest will be relying on backup quarterback Sam Hartman who will be filling for their suspended quarterback of 3 games. Reports out of Wake Forest are Sam is accurate and trust his arm. In my preview of the AAC I said the youngest part of Tulane defense will their Secondary. The Over/Under is currently set at 55 (-110). I easily see 60 points happening in this game. I’ll take a 1 unit play on the Over.
North Carolina and Cal return a similar number in production on both the offensive and defensive sides of the ball. This game should play out a lot like last year, but Cal should have an improved defense. North Carolina also has 3 starters suspended including their starting QB and 2 defensive linemen. Couple that with the huge travel spot across the country for North Carolina and this game does not line up well for them. Justin Wilcox will have this Cal team ready to go. Take Cal -7 for 2U & Under 61 for 1U.
Virginia Tech @ Florida State (-7.5)
These two teams are extremely close in returning production on offense with Virginia Tech returning 68% and Florida State returning 74%. Virginia Tech returns a bit more on defense with 64% vs Florida State’s 46%. This is the one spot that Virginia Tech should have an advantage. Bud Foster always has his defense up for challenging spots.
When you look at the depth chart, there’s an equal amount of inexperience on both sides. Virginia Tech starts 5 underclassmen on offense and 4 on defense. Florida State is starting 4 underclassmen on offense and 6 on defense. Also, total stats from last year ring pretty close with Virginia Tech’s offense averaging 412.8 yards per game and 5.39 yards per play. Florida State averaged 351.9 yards per game and 5.66 yards per play. One thing to watch here is that Willie Taggert wants to implement a higher tempo offense than what Jimbo Fisher had. We’ll see if that’s a help to their offense or a hindrance to their defense.
With the returning production being so close, the depth charts being virtually even, and last year’s stats being pretty even, I don’t see a blowout here. This should be a very close, well contested game. The team that wins will have better QB play and better defensive play. Josh Jackson should have a better year as the returning starter for Virginia Tech. It will be interesting to see what happens with Deondre Francois as he comes back as Florida State’s starter after missing all of last year. I see this being a 3-6 point game at most. Take Virginia Tech +7.5 for 1U.
NCAA football is finally back and we are ready to get things going!!! Kiev O’Neil @thepublicdog breaks down his college football picks for week 1. He also goes over the sharp action report and line movement that has happened over the summer for these week 1 college football lines.
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Value in Week O is on Wyoming going into their opener against New Mexico St. I expect NM St to take some time to gel on offense returning only 41% of offensive production. Also, Wyoming strength is in their defense where they return almost 75% of production. I don’t expect this Wyoming team to suffer without Josh Allen as they return 79% of offensive production. NM St is returning 80% of production on defense but that same defense let up almost 400 yards per game. Tyler Vander Waal will take over under center, he’s no Josh Allen but you don’t need to be to win games against group of 5 competition. Expect Craig Bohl to run the ball often and allow Tyler to take safe throws that will build confidence in his true freshman quarterback. Take Wyoming at -4. 1 star play
1. Marquise ‘Hollywood’ Brown (Oklahoma)- Checking in at 5-11, 162lbs Junior. He is going to be very fun to watch this year. I’ve seen him play up live, up close & personal, this kid has some of the best route running skills & hands I’ve ever seen. Be sure to keep an eye out for him as Kyler Murray looks to find him.
2. ShawnRobinson (TCU) – Dual threat mobile quarterback, who has plenty of size & an arm to come with it. He’s coming into his true sophomore year at weighing 228 & standing 6-2. Now there’s plenty of hype already heading into the 2018 season with this team, as he’ll look forward to taking on the competitive Big12 conference.
3. JusticeHill (OklahomaState) – This highly talented back standing 5-10 & packing 185lbs comes into the 2018 season more hungry than ever. With expectations falling short last year, Hill looks to have another great season at running back & as well at slot WR.
Hawaii vs Colorado St -14.5. Hawaii comes in to this year with a pretty young roster. They have 5 underclassmen starters on offense and 3 on defense. Hawaii returns 58% production on offense, 74% on defense and 66% overall. This doesn’t mean much as they were a very bad team last year going 3-9 overall and 1-10-1 ATS. On the other hand, Colorado State returns the lowest production numbers in all of college football with 27% on offense, 44% on defense and 35% overall. The difference for Colorado State is that they have a grad transfer QB in K.J. Carta-Samuels who transfered in from Washington. This along with a mostly upperclassmen starters on offense and in the defensive backfield, they should be able to pick up where they left off last year. Mike Bobo will also be coaching the team in the opener after his hospital stay for peripheral neuropathy. That should give Colorado State another reason to be dominant in their home opener. Need more convincing? Since 2016, Hawaii is 7-17-1 ATS overall and 4-8 ATS on the road. Colorado State stomped Hawaii last year 51-21 and have won the last 7 in a row. Colorado State has won the last 4 meetings by an average of 19.75 points. I don’t see much changing this year. Look for Colorado State to cover -14.5 points and roll in this one. Take Colorado State -14.5 for 2U.
Ok both teams have new QBs so nothing much there. New Mexico State tho definitly has some motivation. They were kicked out of the Sunbelt and this is their first year as an independant school. I believe the line move from +5 to +3.5 is due to that. They should be motivated and its a numbers grab for a home dog… The problem with this team is that they only return 62% production with only 41% on offense and 83% on defense. NM State was good enough to make a bowl game last year and should be motivated. The problem here is the conference. While the Mac is looked at as one the better group of 5, the Sun belt is looked at as one of the worst and that didn’t bode well for the Aggies. On the other side of the coin, Wyoming returns a ton of production on offense at 79% fresh off that double digit bowl win over Central Michigan. Tyler Vaner Waal will be at the helm throwing to some experienced skill position players. Wyoming also returns a defense allowing only 17.5 PPG and 4.7 yards per play. I also think its a little to early for Wyoming to be looking ahead to WASU. Power ratings say Wyoming -5.5 Taking Wyoming -3.5
1. Now that sports wagering is legal (i like to call it sports wagering because its not as much gambling if you know what you are doing over time), what is your opinion on how its been rolled out so far in the legalized states? Some bad lines came out right away and it might be best to partner with other people in areas to get the best lines. People need to learn to only use disposable income for sports betting.
2. Is the SEC West still the best division in football? ESPN’s FPI says so but it is so close to the Big 10 east that it doesn’t really matter at this point.
3. Let’s get into some of these future prices? Florida State has great value to win the ACC at 10-1. Penn State has pretty good value at 6-1. Stanford has more Value at 3.3 -1 than Washington at even money to win the Pac 12. Utah has lots of value in the Pac 12 South. Florida has more value than South Carolina.
Kiev’s Picks: Cal at 28-1 to win Pac 12 and 750-1 ncaa championship. Wisconsin 30-1 NCAA Champtionship and 4-1 Big 10. Mich State 65-1 to win NCAA Championship and 10-1 big 10. Penn state 36-1 NCAA Championship. Texas 40-1 NCAA Champtionship. Florida 100-1 NCAA Championship and 14-1 to win SEC. Miami 6.5-1 to win ACC and 50-1 to win Championship. Buffalo 11-1 to win the MAC. Arizona 4-1 to win Pac 12 south and 120-1 to win NCAA Championship. Florida Atlantic 1000-1 to win NCAA Championship. Lots of these have hedging opportunities.
4. Do you have a sleeper team this year that can impress ATS or make a suprising run? Georgia Southern will have some value improving this year with new coach Chad Lunsford going back to the Triple Option. Buffalo will have some value.
