The parents are coming to town so it’s a busy day for yours truly. These write-ups will be a little more concise today but trust that they come with the same quality research and rigor as all of my posts. I just hit 100 articles at TheOddsBreakers yesterday and I’m so proud to be a part of this badass site! To more wins and more money in your wallets as we tackle this huge Saturday with a ton of opportunity! (If you haven’t yet, check out my UFC 259 Best Value Bets before the big card tonight!)
Florida State -6.5 (-115), 2 units: I was able to grab the Seminoles last night at this line, and then it moved up to 8 and now I see it again at this number. GRAB IT. Florida State is the significantly better team and I know they’ve had their road woes but the Irish are in a real slump. The Seminoles know they have to play better on Saturdays and away from Tallahassee. Whether the Irish know they have to improve or not doesn’t matter to me. They don’t have the prowess or size to matchup with the Seminoles. Expect Florida State to show up big today.
UConn -9.5 (-105), 1.5 units: This number is a bit expensive for me but UConn’s hype is not hyperbole. Led by Bouknight, the Huskies play hard on defense and are very effective on the offensive end. Lately they’ve wiped the floor against every Big East foe not named Villanova and I expect they’ll do the same today. Georgetown isn’t the same team on the road and they have less to play for.
Marshall -12 (-110), 1 unit: This is one of two play-back games I’ll attack today. Marshall should have beaten Charlotte much more handedly last night. Expect them to assert more of their talent and pace on Charlotte and win by 15+.
Weber State -9.5 (-110), 1 unit: Playing back on Weber State just like I did with Marshall. Weber State should have blown out Northern Colorado in the first contest but the box scores shows just a 1 point victory. Yet the books still see the Wildcats as nearly a 10 point favorite. Hmm… yup- time to flex. Joe Bookie wants you to bet the Bears again.
Vermont (-115), 1.5 units: This is a pretty square pick. No matter which angle or trend or statistic I look at, it all favors Vermont at this number. They’re a significantly better team than Hartford, at home.
Ohio State -2 (-115), 2.5 units: This is my play of the day. Ohio State has managed to fall behind Illinois in the top 25 and if you think that sounds hokey, it’s because it is. I respect what the Illini have been able to do recently, their win against Michigan was impressive, but Ohio State is in a terrific spot here and they have all the reason and motivation to show their best selves today. Make no mistake about it- the Buckeyes ARE the better team and we’ll see significant improvements from them today, particularly on defense. I think this could get ugly.
Duke/NC over 148.5 (-110), 1.5 units: There’s too much distance between the first game and today to think the defenses will suddenly step up and completely change the flow of this game. The offenses will win the battle more often than not and I think we see a back and forth slugfest where the Tar Heels edge out Duke for a second straight victory. The eye test tells me NC’s guards match up really well against the Blue Devils.
Ohio State's E.J. Liddell, right, celebrates after making a basket against Illinois during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game Thursday, March 5, 2020, in Columbus, Ohio. Ohio State won 71-63. (AP Photo/Jay LaPrete)
Illinois vs Ohio State +1 O/U 152
Indiana vs Purdue is a perfect segway to this game right here because there will be a play but it will depend on what happens.
Indiana/Purdue is playing at noon while this game is at 2pm. I think the players will know by the beginning of their game if Purdue wins or loses.
This is real simple to me. I have to assume that Ayo Dosunmu won’t play and they are saving him for the Big 10 tournament. Just that information right there makes me look towards the under.
Now if we are going to play the under, it would also depend some on Ohio State’s motivation. If Purdue wins this game, Ohio State will not be able to help their seed.
If Purdue happens to lost vs Indiana then I can see a ton of motivation for Ohio State to grab the first round bye. They will step it up on offense and probably some on defense.
The under is a play either way for me if the number is at 150 or better but I will play Ohio State for 3 stars if Purdue loses.
Under 151 – 2 stars
Ohio State -2 – 1.5 stars and if Purdue wins this goes to 3 stars
Duke vs North Carolina -2 O/U 150
Will duke make the NCAA tournament? Probably not but they will be motivated here anyways in this rivalry. Both of these teams have major flaws. North Carolina is pretty much in the red in all offensive categories except for rebounds. What they do is haphazardly throw the ball up at the basket and everyone charges the rim to get the high percentage cleanup shot. This is why they rank 265th in effective FG percentage and number 1 in the nation in offensive rebounds. Duke on the other hand isn’t great at anything. They turn the ball over, they can’t shoot free throws or block shots. Duke also ranks 101st in defensive efficiency where at least North Carolina ranks 21st. If I am Duke, I play a tight pack-line defense and make UNC shoot while I concentrate on rebounding the ball. I also keep shooting the 3 ball because you have chances of longer rebounds against this tall team that is the recipe for beating this UNC team. If I am UNC I drive drive drive to the rim to keep focusing on the high percentage shots because that’s all UNC really has. I also try and play some perimeter defense and get through the ball screens. Duke is the more desperate team here for sure but who knows who will win this game, but I also do not think that we will see much defense here. I have UNC winning this game 77-75 so most likely no play on the side unless this line goes haywire. I’ll grab the over due to UNC setting the pace and the desperation for both teams. Last game went way over as well.
Over 149 – 1.5 stars
BONUS:
Rutgers -3.5 – 2 stars – Minnesota is very with Kalscheur and Robbins most likely out. Now Johnson hurt his ankle and I think this team rests up for the Big 10 tournament.
Tonight we forget March Madness for UFC Madness with 3 title fights!!!
Megan Anderson vs Amanda Nunez -1200
I’ve been betting Amanda Nunez since she was about +250 vs Miesha Tate and Rhonda Rousey back in 2016 but those wonderful numbers are long gone. I haven’t seen any fighter live up to the matchup vs Amanda Nunez since then except for maybe Valentina Shevshenko. Megan Anderson is a nice fighter at 11-4 but Nunez has her in significant strikes per minute at 4.44 to 1.82 as well as take down average at 2.5 to .56. The price on this fight is just too high. You can possibly take a shot at Nunez by KO at +100 or Nunez wins by submission at +200 ish or decision at +450 and I have a premium play on that. One thing that I will say for Megan Anderson is that she has never been knocked out. Nunez in her past 2 fights has been more careful and more calculated. She went to decision in both of them. If Megan is smart, she stays away from Nunez as much as possible. 3 of Nunez’s last 5 fights have went to 3 round decisions. I think that this fight won’t end before round 3 and I will take the over 1.5 rounds.
Over 1.5 rounds (-130) – 2 stars
Israel Adesanya -230 vs Jan Blachowicz +195
This is going to be a great Main event. Israel Adesanya is fighting to be a double champion in weight classes Light Heavyweight to go with his Middle weight crown. Now there is a 20lb difference from middle weight to light heavyweight from 185 to 205 and I think that is a pretty big difference in my opinion. Israel is an awesome fighter. He uses his speed and skill to confuse his opponents. He is very slippery on the ground making it hard for fighters to keep hold of him. One thing that his doesn’t do in his 20 wins and 0 losses is win by submission. Adesanye has 15 KO/TKOs and 5 decisions. Four of his last seven fights actually went to decision. Three of them were five round fights. Jan Blachowicz is strong and he has really made a move to greatness since his loss in early 2019 to Thiago Santos. People were surprised that he beat Dominic Reyes like he did in the second round. Adesanya is the better striker at 4.1 SSLPM to 3.6 but Blachowicz has the better take down average at 1.1 to Adesanya is stepping up in weight class which makes me concerned for him here but I still think that Jan is going to give a max effort to keep his title. As of right now, I think that the best look is the over 2.5 rounds at -140. I think that Jan is smart enough not to get into a stand up fight with Israel and and I could see this fight going to the ground. out of Jan’s 35 fights, 15 of them have went to decision. From a price perspective on this fight, I think that Israel is getting expensive for such a big move up in weight. If this thing gets to +220 or better, I will play Jan Blachowicz.
Over 2.5 rounds -140 – 2 stars
Aljamain Sterling vs Petyr Yan -120
I looked hard at this fight and I really think it is pretty evenly matched. Yan just got his title by beating up Jose Aldo last summer in July and he should be very motivated to keep his title. Sterling definitely deserves the number 1 contender designation here being that he has beaten some of the best and hasn’t lost since catching a knee to the jaw in 2017 vs Marlon Moraes. The thing for me here is that even though this is a 5 round title fight, I do not think either of these fighters will win within the distance. Both of them are smart with a great ground game. From a side perspective, I think that Yan has the slight advantage landing 6.3 significant strikes per minute to 4.3. Both have great floor games. I also think that Sterling can be a little more unpredictable and erratic. I like this fight going to decision and I also like Yan getting the W here.
Well it’s been a good week so far. My NBA Free Picks went 12-5 for +11 units and my CBB Picks have gone 11-9 for +7 units thus far. Pretty happy to get a break from NBA action so I can squarely focus on the conference tournaments and prep for March Madness. Spring is around the corner, the madness is back, and we’re winning every week– what a time to be alive! Onto my Friday picks:
Stetson +10 (-115), 1.5 units: There’s no doubt that Liberty is the class of the ASUN. They’re on a 10-game win streak and sit comfortably atop the conference. In general, the Stetson Hatters are a pretty subpar team with a particularly weak defense. But Stetson has shown an ability to turn up and compete with the best teams in the ASUN. They beat Bellarmine is their last contest and split games with Lipscomb and Liberty. In their win against the Flames, they didn’t do anything special. In fact Liberty actually shot better than Stetson from the field. The Hatters are an interesting case but if they play up to their potential today, 10 points is way too much. Take Stetson to be competitive.
Dayton +4.5 (-110), 2 units: This line has come down some but I’d take Dayton at +3.5 too. The VCU Rams bested the Flyers twice this year already, romping them in the first game and edging out Dayton in a back and forth battle in the 2nd. Dayton actually led in the 2nd contest by 8 points before VCU turned on the jets. The Rams are stumbling into the A-10 Conference tournament, though. Averaging only 68.6 ppg in their last 5 games, their offense hasn’t exactly been impressive. Dayton, on the other hand, looks motivated and fluid. They were efficient against Rhode Island from the field, from beyond the arc, from the free-thrown line, and in rebounding. If that Dayton teams shows up today, and I can’t imagine they won’t, they’ll be a big problem for a VCU squad coming in cold.
Boston College +4 (-115), 1.5 units: This is a simple analysis– How can I trust Miami? I can’t and I don’t. The U has looked awful for a long time now. Losers of 6 in a row and 10 of their last 11, I wouldn’t bet on the Hurricanes if you paid me. Boston College isn’t an elite team either but they play with pace and their offense is effective, especially against weaker opponents. The Eagles could easily win this straight up.
Jacksonville State +7.5 (-110), 2 units: The Belmont Bruins, who once had a 21 game winning streak and sat atop the Ohio Valley Conference like gods, have lost 2 of their last 3 games to end their season. They’re also 0-3 ATS in those contests. Jacksonville State proved how underestimated they are last night in an OT win against Murray State, making clutch shots and key plays at the most crucial spots in the game. Winners of 8 of their last 9 games, the Gamecocks bring real momentum and confidence into today’s big clash; I can’t say the same for the Bruins. Belmont defeated Jacksonville St. twice in the regular season, once by 7 points and once by 4 points, and that’s when they were humming. The energy will be different today. This game is on my upset-alert-radar and should be on yours, too. Bet the Gamecocks.
Colorado State wins (-110), 1.5 units: This spot favors Nevada; they’re at home and desperate for a win after 2 straight losses at Utah State. I’m choosing to ignore that. The Rams have stepped up time and time again this year in tough spots. As of today, they are predicted by many as a participant in the NCAA Tournament. And now they have a real shot at competing for the Mountain West Conference title. The Rams play with pace, have 5 straight wins of momentum, and should be extremely motivated to win tonight. Give me Colorado State to take care of business, again.
Here’s the deal. Jacksonville state hung with this Belmont team losing by 7 at home and later only by 4 on the road. I am not saying that 3rd time is the charm or anything, I am just going by what I know about these teams. Jacksonville State has the better defensive adjusted effective FG% at 48.1% to 48.8%, and they shoot the 3 ball when needed just about as good as can be. Nick Muszynski for Belmont is just coming off of an injury and played a few minutes last game so I have to wonder if he might still be ailing a bit. In these team’s last game, Jacksonville State did a great job in slowing it down to 64 possessions. That is part of the formula for beating Belmont. Part of the reason that this line is so high is that the Gamecocks are coming off of an overtime win. I factor that in when it comes to regular season play but elimination games are different. These kids are young and they can hang for a few days in a row in these situations. Either way, Bart Torvik has this line at 5.4, Kenpom has it at 5 and I have it at 6.5. I think it is worth taking a shot here in such an important game with the disrespected barking dog.
Jacksonville State +7.5 – 1.5 star and sprinkle ML
We have an fantastic show for you today. Ross Benjamin @RossBenjamin1 from RBWins.com and Cub Fan Danny @CubFanDanny come on to break down a huge weekend of sports betting! First, Kiev talks about our free $500 giveaway NCAA tournament bracket challenge that we will put on for our listeners. Next, he gets into the value of money-line (mechanical) parlays compared to taking a future for these conference tournaments. Then, Kiev talks about some college basketball betting spots based on shooting percentage, opponent free throw percentage, opponent 3 point percentage, and teams that play good and bad away from home. Next, Ross Benjamin comes on to talk about how he benefits his customers at RBwins and the OSGA Youtube channel. Then, Ross and Kiev talk about some of the big games this weekend along with giving out some Free Plays for this weekend in college basketball! Then, Cub Fan Danny is back to break down a MASSIVE UFC 259 card with some plays and some leans. Should you need any games broken down for next week, please tweet us @TheOddsBreakers. Have a fantastic weekend!
NCAA: Indiana vs Purdue – Illinois vs Ohio State and more!
UFC 259: Israel Adesanya vs Jan Blachowicz – Amanda Nunez vs Megan Anderson and more!
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This line would have been bigger had Michigan beat Illinois. This is a rivalry game in Men’s basketball and I can only look to the desperate team here. Sparty has been very hot winning 4 of their last 5 games and now making a case to be a bubble team. The Wolverines are the best team in the Big 10 still in my mind and most likely a number 1 seed in the tournament. I can’t see them losing both of these games but I could see a desperate Michigan State team giving them fits. Sparty has been playing better down low having guys like Malik Hall and Marcus Bingham step up. When this team beat Illinois, they went big down low and laid the smack down on Cockburn. I can see them using a similar strategy on Hunter Dickenson and Austin Davis. If this line is 14 or better, I will probably be playing Michigan State here who is very desperate for a win and with Michigan on such short rest after the Illinois beat down. I can also take a look at the over because I think we might see a good amount of fouling this game. I have Michigan winning 78-65.
A solid 2-2 night last night, giving us a 9-3 overall record this week in NBA betting. I should have bet Philly on the full side last night, sigh. This is the last slate of games before a 6-day All-Star break. Let’s get to it!
Wizards +5.5 (-105), 1 unit: The Clippers throttled the Wiz-kids and won by 19 points in their last matchup, but this is a different Wizards team now. Embattled from their heartbreaking loss on Sunday to Boston and then getting squashed by Memphis, I like a little resurgence from Washington tonight. I like it even better since the Wizards are bringing a healthy lineup into DC, while LAC should be without Kawhi and Morris (both are doubtful). That should have a significant impact on the Clippers’ defense. I’m on the Wizards getting points and Beal to feast.
Parlay: Knicks win + game under 209 (1 unit to win 1.64 units): Trust me, last night’s offensive performance by the Pistons isn’t something you should get used to. The Raptors were beat up and in a bad spot and Detroit took full advantage. I mean they’re still a pro basketball club. Now Detroit is back on the bus and onto a tougher task tonight as they face a Knicks team that loves to play at home (58.8% ATS). New York’s defense is for real and Julius Randle’s dominance is even more for real. The aggressive, athletic center should have plenty of opportunities tonight against Detroit’s porous front court. Expect the Knicks to win and expect significant negative regression from the Piston defense.
Nuggets -5 (-105), 2 units: Good win for the Pacers last night, as we predicted, although they almost blew it at the end. Domantas Sabonis, who was questionable to play due to an ankle injury, ended up contributing the highest number of team minutes. Something tells me he’ll be a little less agile and able tonight. Regardless, the Pacers don’t have the offensive firepower to keep up with Denver right now. The Nuggets’ 4-game road trip wraps up tonight and they’ve enjoyed the time away, defeating OKC, Chicago, and Milwaukee by margin. Now after 2 days rest, Denver looks to earn a 4-0 road sweep against an Indiana team that’s 35.3% ATS at home. Boom. Bet Denver!
Lean- Bucks -6.5 (-115): There’s a reason Milwaukee is getting 6.5 with some extra juice. After that home debacle (which we correctly wagered on), Milwaukee heads to Memphis to wrap up the first half of their season. Memphis is a real up and down team who flexed a little 2 nights ago on the Wizards in a bad spot (another angle we correctly wagered on). Now they’re feeling themselves after winning 3 of their last 4 and a healthy and pissed off Milwaukee team awaits. The Bucks annoy me, but I lean their way.
Pelicans win first half (-125), 2.5 units: The up and down Pelicans proved once again that they’re among the most confusing teams in the NBA last night. They either look like an elite top 10 team or a total debacle. That usually means there’s a motivational or a coaching issue. Regardless, New Orleans should be able to muster some revenge-energy tonight after that disappointing loss to Chicago Wednesday. They almost came back but it was too little too late. Expect the Pelicans to start off hot tonight against a Heat team that could be without Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler (both are questionable). If they play, they’ll be limited. Miami is also very inconsistent on the road (8-9 ATS). Take New Orleans.
Suns -11.5 (-110), 1.5 units: This is a pretty straightforward handicap. Steph Curry and Draymond Green are out tonight and Kelly Oubre Jr. is questionable. The Suns are fully healthy and Devin Booker will look to assert himself after getting ejected against the Lakers. Golden State just suffered a heartbreaking blow last night. Phoenix is at home. Oh and the Suns are already the superior team… BLOWOUT city.
Well UCLA really lost steam in the final 5 minutes last night. I wasn’t surprised by how buttoned up Villanova looked but a bit taken aback by how lackluster Creighton played. Ah well! We’re 8-6 on the week in CBB and +4.37 units– let’s get MORE! Onto Thursday:
Duquesne +5 (-110), 1 unit: It’s the second round of the Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament and I’m here for it, especially when games start at 11:00am! The competitive spirit of the tournament is built into the line here and Richmond does have a considerably better offense than Duquesne. Still, the Spiders leave me with some concern. At the onset of this strange season, Richmond believed they were among the elite in the Atlantic 10 and a tournament bid was in their future. Fast forward to now and although talented, Richmond has blown many opportunities (especially against inferior opponents) to reach their potential. A tournament win could get them in the big dance but at a 9% chance according to Lineups.com, hope is fading. The Spiders finished their season on a 2 game losing streak, getting bested by Saint Louis and a streaking Saint Joseph’s, which tells me they’re lacking some real motivation. What’s more– 2 of their key players are banged up and questionable heading into this matchup. Duquesne has proven they can get up and play with the big boys and they only lost by 7 the last time they faced Richmond, who were in a much better spot. I like the Dukes to keep this close.
Saint Joseph’s +4 (-110), 1 unit: Another Atlantic 10 tournament game and another angle I love. Has anyone been paying attention to Saint Joseph’s? We bet on them the other day and scored a nice win. Saint Joseph’s is now on a 4-game winning streak and it hasn’t been against slouches either. Richmond, Dayton, twice against La Salle. I’m not going to overanalyze this– I’ll keep riding the Hawks until the wheels fall off. They’re enjoying this run and should give UMASS a run for their money today.
Dayton -3.5 (-115), 2 units: I love this setup for the Flyers. Rhode Island ended their season losing 6 of their last 7 games. Their only win in that stretch: a 2-OT-thriller victory against Dayton. Dayton has more experience and a more effective offense than the Rams. Rhode Island will also be without Jeremy Sheppard, one of their only two players who average double-digit ppg. The other, senior guard Fatts Russell, has been wildly inconsistent. That will mean that even more inexperienced players will have to step up for the Rams in a big spot here. I like Dayton in a sweet revenge spot. They’ve been here before.
Michigan State +12 (-110) and Oklahoma State +12 (-115), both for 2 units: I’m grouping this together because they’re in very similar situations. Both Michigan and Baylor are entering today’s games a bit cold. Although Baylor got a terrific win against West Virginia a few days ago, they haven’t looked like the same team since their COVID pause. They’re mistake-prone and a little undisciplined, at least compared to what we’re used to. Michigan was overwhelmed by Illinois last weekend and seemed to take their foot off the gas. Besides, what more do the Wolverines have to gain? They’re guaranteed a high seed in the NCAA Tournament and they’re the class of the Big 10, regardless of these final game narratives. Michigan State and Oklahoma State will be supremely motivated for today’s games. Sparty comes into this wanting to keep their tournament chances alive (56% chance according to Lineups.com) and Oklahoma State is riding a 5-game winning streak. Both are on the road but I don’t think that means much. These games are usually back-n-forth battles between conference titans and the line should be treated that way. Even if both Michigan and Baylor blow their foes out of the water, the number is too juicy not to take. Give me Sparty and the Cowboys to keep it close.
Utah State -16.5 (-110), 1.5 units: This is a pretty simple handicap for me. The Utah State Aggies are the significantly better team all around and need to keep their NCAA Tournament chances alive with impressive wins before the Mountain West tourney. And this is the perfect matchup to do it. While Wyoming enjoys beating up on weaker in-conference opponents with their fast tempo and effective 3-point shooting, they’re abysmal on defense. The Aggies are extremely effective at preventing high percentage shots and second chance opportunities and what’s more, they’re exceptional at preventing shots from beyond the arc. Wyoming lives off the 3-ball for its success. This is not a good situation or matchup for the Cowboys– take the Aggies to surge tonight.
What an amazing card for this Saturday’s UFC 259! You better believe it’ll be streaming it on my big-screen. Here are my best value bets for this momentous event:
Dominick Cruz (+105): “The Dominator” used to own the bantamweight division but after a long layoff and then a recent loss to Henry Cejudo, which is certainly nothing to be ashamed of, Cruz hasn’t won since 2016. Make no mistake about it, Cruz is poised to return to his old ways. He’s beaten legends of the octagon like Uriah Faber, TJ Dillashaw, and Demetrius “Mighty Mouse” Johnson. This line is begging you to take Kenny at a reduced underdog price for Cruz. It’s sneaky. Casey Kenny is a reputable fighter worthy of being a slight favorite Saturday night. He’s on a nice little 3 fight win streak, but his wins aren’t against any martial artists worth celebrating. Dominick Cruz has sensational lateral movement, elite timing, and moves at a pace that Kenny hasn’t seen before. This is a great price on a legendary fighter who still has the wind and moxie to win. Bet “The Dominator.”
Joseph Benavidez (+110): Benavidez was one of my favorite betting picks before his gruesome losses to Deiveson Figueiredo. Deemed by multiple announcers and fighters as one of the nicest guys in UFC, Benavidez has an unbelievable gas tank that’s been virtually unmatched until those two losses to the current flyweight champ. Askar Askarov is a gifted fighter with a great ground game, but I don’t think he’s as dominant as it seems. Benavidez has feasted on the Askarov archetype and I think it’s a great matchup for him to get back in the win column. Reluctant to start thinking about retirement, it’s obvious Benavidez still has the gusto to keep his future title chances alive. Bet on my boy Joseph.
Petr Yan (-120): I’m a big Petr Yan guy and I think this is a crazy low price for his first title defense. The Russian native has compiled a 7-0 record in the UFC and brings his 10-fight winning streak on the line when he defends his bantamweight title on Saturday. Aljamain Sterling is a great fighter and even better submission artist. He deserves this title fight after a long journey, but I can’t step in front of Yan here. Yan is a very complete fighter who overwhelms his opponents with pace. He has landed 284 more significant strikes than his foes through his 7 UFC fights, has a striking differential of +3.07, which is 1st among all bantamweights in UFC history, and also ranks 2nd in knockdown average. He hides his ability to submit and grapple but it’s there– he won by guillotine choke in his 3rd professional bout in 2015. He’ll be ready for Sterling. It may seem like I’m undermining and underestimating Sterling. I’m not, and he’s surely capable of dominating Yan on the ground. Petr Yan just gives us no reason to question him. He’s been an absolutely dominate fighter since arriving at the UFC and I don’t think Sterling is dynamic enough to stop him. Unless it’s against Henry Cejudo, I’m not sure if anyone can dethrone Yan for a long time. I think we’re looking at a true hall of famer in Yan and that’ll be on full display Saturday.
Megan Anderson (+650) and Anderson/Nunes over 1.5 rounds (-120): Is it likely that Megan Anderson will beat Amanda Nunes? Hell no. Assuming you know who Nunes is, who most experts call the greatest female UFC fighter of all time, that answer is always “no,” regardless of who her opponent is. But are there reasons to believe Anderson can pull it off? Yes. We won’t review Nunes in detail because we know about the “Lioness.” Megan Anderson is a complete fighter and she’ll have a true size advantage Saturday, one Nunes has never faced. She stands at 6 feet tall (Nunes is 5’8″) and she’ll own a 3.5 inch reach advantage. I also think she’s the hardest hitter Nunes has ever faced. With respect to Cris Cyborg, Anderson’s big frame and background in kickboxing/boxing bring a serious amount of striking skill to the octagon. There’s a ton of power coming behind those shots. Lastly and not to be overlooked– I really like how gritty Anderson is. She fights with fire and ferocity and I doubt she’ll be intimidated by Nunes. Her battle against Holly Holms 2 years ago was a good foreshadowing, as she very nearly beat the world-champion boxer and walked her down throughout the contest. Remember when Holly Holmes knocked out the untouchable Ronda Rousey? Holms approached that fight with the same calculated confidence and she was a similarly priced underdog (I think Holms was at +800). Everyone thought her winning was impossible, too. This line is just too juicy to not take a shot. Nunes is a lioness, not a goddess.
We’re taking the over 1.5 rounds because it’s a misnomer that Nunes ends most of her fights in TKO fashion. Sure, some of her most famous bouts have ended that way (her less than one minute TKO of Ronda Rousey sticks out), but Nunes’ fights routinely go beyond 2 rounds. In fact, her last two fights went the entire 5 rounds. Both fighters should approach each other cautiously out of respect for the other’s knockout capability. The over makes the most sense at a cheap price.
Jan Blachowicz wins (+190): This pick is all about pure polish power. Anyone who’s fought in any sort of boxing or MMA competition knows that Eastern Europeans just hit different (I have a ton of EE in my blood and I box, so yea maybe I’m a homer here). Jan Blachowicz is a great story. In 2017, after losing 4 of his first 6 UFC Fights, Jan turned his career around with steady improvements and won 8/9 of his next battles. That included 5 stoppages. Fast forward to his show-down with Dominick Reyes last year, where Jan crushed Reyes and ended the bout in a second round TKO, earning the title of light heavyweight champion and solidifying this huge showdown against Israel at UFC 259. Israel Adesanya is a mega star at this point, obliterating everyone in his path in the Middleweight Division. He’s bested names like Whittaker, Costa, Brunson, Romero, and the Anderson Silva. If he wins Saturday night, he would overtake Connor McGregor as the youngest champ-champ ever. It’s hard not to love Israel. He’s entertaining, well-spoken, and at times seems like a real-life untouchable ninja. He made Paulo Costa look silly in his last main event. So why do I like Jan? Blachowicz will weigh in at 205 but he’ll be much bigger than Israel when the first bell rings. And what people don’t know about the polish puncher is he’s also really skilled at takedowns and grappling. He has a ton of wins by submission and he’s a skilled take-down artist. The combination of his unique arsenal and assertive physical presence will, in my opinion, give him opportunities that Israel has never had to defend before. And as we all know, it only takes one good landing from the Polish powerhouse to get a knockout win. Israel is a world class martial artist but fighting in a different weight class is no joke. Connor learned the hard way the first time he switched and I think Adesanya does, too. I’ll take the dynamic, more imposing fighter for + money.
