Here are more free picks for this gigantic Saturday slate in college basketball! For Part I of today’s free picks, check out the article I released last night. Enjoy!

Wisconsin -4.5 (-110), 1 unit: If the Badgers want to remain among the country’s elite, these are the games they have to win, and by a little margin, too. The Nittany Lions can play with the big boys when they do everything right and they’ve faced the hardest schedule in the country according to KenPom. At home, the Badgers won’t intimidate them. But Wisconsin’s talent level on offense and defense should completely un-match Penn State. I’ll take a shot on the Badgers to play more consistent than they have in recent past. I think this is a decent play-on spot for a team capable of doing damage in the tournament and they should start gaining steam, if they’re worth their merit.

UVA/Virginia Tech under 124.5 (-110), 1.5 units: Lately Virginia Tech’s defense has impressed me even more than UVA. Both Barttorvik and KenPom rank Virginia’s defensive efficiency slightly better, but the Hokies have stifled some above-average offenses lately, including Notre Dame and Duke (I’ll ignore last Saturday’s flop against Syracuse, that was a bad spot). Among elite teams, UVA and VA Tech both have two of the slowest tempos in the country. I like that this game is in Blacksburg, too. Even with limited home court advantage, the Hokies will be highly motivated to prove they can hang with the defensive prowess of the Cavaliers. I don’t expect UVA to lose, but it’s a decent let-down spot after winning 7 straight games, so nerves could come into play. For all these reasons, we have to favor an under between two elite defensive teams.

Notre Dame +4 (-110), 1.5 units: Notre Dame has managed to maintain a top-flight offense despite facing the 13th toughest schedule according to KenPom. The Irish are opportunists who like to steal wins against teams who the marketplace thinks are either evenly matched or better. Pittsburgh’s defense is solid, but it’s nothing new or inhibitive for the Irish, who KenPom ranks as having the 11th toughest defensive opponents thus far. Pitt is on a two-game slump, and this spot at home certainly presents a better situation for the Panthers, but Notre Dame’s offense is due for positive regression after two straight stinkers. I think the Irish keep this close in a very evenly matched game.

CS Fullerton/CS Bakersfield over 137.5 (-110), 2 units: Last night these two teams faced off and the game had a real ugly start. Midway through the first half, they combined for only 19 points. Then they finally found a rhythm. In the second half, Fullerton and Bakersfield combined for a whopping 112 total points, each exposing each other’s defenses and finding easy ways to score. Following it live, it looked like neither team could miss for big stretches of play. I expect CS Bakersfield to clamp down a little bit, they have a considerably better defense, but I think the offenses keep winning the small battles. While it won’t be another 174 point game, this number is still way too low.

Check out my 2nd article for even more NCAAM picks for your Saturday!

Alabama +1.5 (-110), 1.5 units: Two white-hot teams come into Saturday in a big showdown among elites, as #9 Alabama goes up against #24 Oklahoma. It’s hard to pick a side– both teams are well coached and should be highly motivated at tip-off– but I give the edge to Alabama for 2 big reasons: 3-point efficiency and pace. I think the Sooners will spend most of this game catching up to the Crimson Tide. Although both teams play fast, Alabama has virtually no weaknesses on offense. While Oklahoma stifles most of its opponents with a well-schemed and disciplined defense, Alabama moves the ball around with fluidity and is among one of the best shooting teams in the country beyond the arc (ranked 17th on Haslametrics on 3 pt. FG % against the average opponent). Bama overwhelms the Sooners late.

Duke -5 (-110), 1 unit: Yeeeaaa I really don’t want to bet on Duke this year, but this is a different situation. The Blue Devils finally seem healthy and they get a star back in Jalen Johnson. Clemson plays stout defense but they’re not particularly effective on offense, ranking 120th on Barttorvik’s offensive efficiency rating. Duke doesn’t have to play exemplary to win, and it helps that Clemson has really struggled on the road this season (0-4 ATS in their last 4 games). The Blue Devils should be highly motivated since their season, if it’s going to get back on track, really needs to kick in gear now.

Baylor -14.5 (-110), 1.5 units: I’ve tried really hard to look at the Auburn side and I ended up back on Baylor in yet another big win. Why? Because just like virtually every team they’ve faced, I think the Bears will overwhelm and run away with this game (and maybe by the end of the first half). The Tigers are a very formidable opponent, and the addition of Sharife Cooper has really boosted their offense (scoring 22.3 ppg since returning on January 9). In general Auburn has played really well lately, but it scares me that KenPom gives them a 347th experience ranking. Baylor, the 1st ranked defense and 3rd ranked offense according to KenPom, is playing for something different now– historical dominance. I mean the Bears have only won 2 games by less than double digits so far this year (and one was hokey, caused by a last second 3-pointer). I just can’t go against this team– Baylor is one of the most complete teams I’ve ever seen, and I don’t think Auburn is close in talent, grit or depth. This is a close line, but it’s still too short for me.

Florida State -4.5 (-110), 1 unit: The Seminoles easily beat the Yellow Jackets back in mid-December and I think this will look very similar. Florida State is just in a different class and they’re really starting to hum as an offense. Despite the revenge angle and how motivated Georgia Tech should be for this matchup, Florida State is so well balanced and stout defensively, and their offense is only getting better: an FSU researcher found that Florida State is now the No. 1 team in the nation at converting on guarded catch-and-shoot opportunities. In 105 contested catch-and-shoot situations, the Seminoles are producing at a 1.351 points per possession clip, tops in Division-I. The Seminoles should be able to control this game on both sides of the ball. If you like GA Tech, go for a first half line.

Rice +4, 1H (-105), 1.5 units: This is the first game in 2 weeks for North Texas, a well-disciplined USA Conference team who plays methodical and efficient both on defense and offense. It’s likely that North Texas will win this game, but how long will it take for them to get back into the flow of things? We see it in every game where teams are off a long-layoff– they’re not quite the same at first. Michigan State in the first 10 minutes last night is a great example of that. Rice scores more than the Mean Green and play at a much faster tempo. I think there’s a good chance that the Owls are very feisty and could take a lead in this game, especially in the the first half. Any time I think that’s true, I’m on the dog.

Bellarmine -8 (-110), 1 unit: Here I go with more bottom-feeder bets, but I can’t help it! There’s just too much opportunity in spots like this. Poor Kennesaw State is the bottom of the bottom, earning a 0-8 record in ASUN conference play. You might think I like this spot, then, since they’re returning home as a dog and it’s not like Bellarmine is Baylor. But for how average Bellarmine is, I do think they’re still significantly better than Kennesaw State. The Knights score a full 10 ppg better than the Owls, they allow 3 ppg less, and they’ve feasted on the weakest teams in the ASUN, not to mention the fact that Kennesaw State is literally in the bottom 10 ranked teams on KemPom. A school called Bethune Cookman is the next lowest ranked team… not making that up, so that should tell you something. Bellarmine is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 on the road. In short, I like Bellarmine to cover.

UC San Diego vs. Long Beach State over 153.5 (-110), 1.5 units: How much do you know about the Tritons and the “Beach” (seriously, I think that’s their team name, just Beach)? If you’re like the rest of America, probably not much, but I think there’s a real angle here on the over. UC San Diego is a fast-paced team, ranked #89 in tempo according to KenPom. Long Beach State? They’re ranked #12. Long Beach State also allows an insane 89 points per game, and they’ve been rocked on defense by teams with average offenses (like CSU Bakersfield, for example). A defense that bad, with tempos this fast and offenses that can score in bunches– this number is too low for me. I think this soars over.

Northern Colorado -4 (-110), 1 unit: Check out yesterday’s write up on this game, since it was postponed to tonight. Try to get this number at -4.5 or under; 5 or more feels a little too big in what could be a close contest between two pretty terrible teams.

Illinois -2 (-115), 1.5 units : A marquee matchup will close out Friday night between 7th ranked Iowa and 19th ranked Illinois. This should be an entertaining game and picking a side is a bit scary, but I think this is Illinois’ chance to shine. Both teams are among the top 10 in adjusted offense (2nd and 8th, respectively) according to KenPom. Iowa averages nearly 91 ppg and Illinois averages 83. A total over 160 is a huge number for an in-conference game in the Big 10, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it goes over. The difference will be on defense. According to KenPom, the Fighting Illini have had the 10th toughest schedule and have faced the 7th toughest offenses in the country. Still, their adjusted defense ranks in the top 25! Iowa has a lower strength of schedule, yet a significantly lower ranked defense at #100. At home, with both teams coming off 10 days rest (which could affect the offenses more than the defenses), I like the Illini to make more plays guarding the rim. They’ve done it all year, they’re underrated, and I think Iowa is a bit overrated. I’m on the lower ranked team, but the sharper side.

Oregon State +12.5 (-110), 1 unit: The Beavers are on a little tear right now after winning 3 straight games, including their recent victory over USC. This pick has less to do with Oregon State’s recent success, though. USC is the better team; I just don’t think they’re the better team by a 12 point margin. If you look at the box score between these teams a few weeks ago, the statistics were evenly matched. The Beavers had a slight edge in turnovers allowed and 3-point shooting, but overall the Trojans matched or exceeded Oregon State’s performance. Even on the season, USC scores only slightly more and allows only slightly less than Oregon State, and their strength of schedule isn’t that disparate. Although this is a better spot for USC, at home in a revenge game, I think this number is slightly too big. Oregon State can hang for the majority of this contest. USC will win, but not by double digits. This line is falling, so get it while you can at this number!

Rutgers -2, 1H only (-105), 1.5 units: Michigan State may be the better team here, I’m not really sure, but there’s a reason why the Scarlet Knights are favored. The Spartans are coming off 20 days of “rest” after a COVID-related hiatus– a situation that hasn’t served teams well after such a long layoff. Remember, these are kids– kids with families, midterms, finals, and the normal stress of a maturing adult. Their brains haven’t fully developed, and they’re more emotional than professional players. Only 23 days ago, the Spartans squashed Rutgers by more than 20 points. If you look closely at that game, Rutgers played well below their season averages. They shot only 30% from the field, only 25% from 3-point land, shot an absurdly bad 35% from the free-throw line, and got out-rebounded 45-25. Wow, that was one horrendous showing by Rutgers. If Michigan State is going to win or cover, they’ll surge in the second half. I think the spot for Rutgers is just too significant, at least in the first 20 minutes of play.

Northern Colorado -4 (-110), 1 unit: Virtually every statistic in KenPom ranks the Northern Colorado Bears as pretty hideous, in the bottom half of the NCAA in nearly every category (except luck… shocking). Northern Arizona? They’re even worse in every category. The Bears score more and allow less than the Lumberjacks, and they’ve fared well in the first game of a doubleheader all season (winning openers against Idaho State, Montana, Idaho, and Eastern Washington). This number seems right, but I’ll take a shot and put 1 unit on the Bears to cover against a Northern Arizona team that’s 0-6 at home and has a 3-6 conference record in the Big Sky. In other words, Northern Arizona is next-level horrible.

Belmont -5.5 (-110), 1.5 units: I’m trying hard (not sure why) to look at the Austin Peay side and favor the dog, but I just don’t see it. Belmont is on an absolute tear lately, which wouldn’t stand in a greater conference but it means something in theirs. They’re clearly the class of the Ohio Valley. Last year, Austin Peay was an ATS darling as a dog, but not so much this year. The Governors are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games, while the Bruins are enjoying a 9-1-1 ATS run on the road. Austin Peay will play hard; I just think this number is too low. Belmont pulls away in the second half and covers.