James Madison -3.5 (-110), 1.5 units: James Madison is the clear better team and plays at a pace that will disrupt Towson’s confidence. The Dukes score more and allow less than the Tigers and are among the top 50 teams in tempo. It’s easy to get cute and look for a revenge angle, especially with an in-conference contest, but the Dukes beat Towson by a good margin a few weeks ago, even with Towson having the field goal % and rebounding advantage. The Dukes should win by margin yet again.

Wisconsin -3.5 (-110), 2 units: Maryland is a good team to bet on and bet against, depending on the spot. The Badgers come into this game having just lost against conference foe Ohio State, while probably still fuming about their upset loss against the Terps back in late December. Wisconsin plays at a molasses-in-January pace (i.e., slow) and likes to overwhelm teams with their cerebral defense. Maryland relies on great shooting at a slow pace. In the first contest, the Terps shot a ridiculous 50% from the field and out-rebounded the Badgers in a game that went back and forth. I think this game will look different, with Wisconsin acting as the more motivated aggressor. Even better, I love betting on a team that lost at home against an in-conference opponent in the first game. Give me the Badgers in a big win at Maryland.

Parlay: VA Tech wins, game under 139.5 (1 unit to win 2.6 units): Notre Dame is a formidable opponent, but they haven’t played well against above-average teams or defenses. VA Tech won this first contest easily, and I think this looks like a repeat of that affair. Notre Dame is really good on offense, but in their first matchup the Irish were held to just 2/19 from the field in the second half; VA Tech played stifling man-to-man defense and dominated the boards. The Hokies just match up well against teams like Notre Dame, who rely on efficient offense amidst a slow tempo. I like VA Tech even more coming off a loss against Syracuse where they only scored 60 points. Give me the away team and the under.

Stephen F. Austin: +4 (-110), 1 unit: Last time Abilene Christian faced a team with an adjusted tempo this high (Sam Houston St.), they didn’t fair well. Stephen F. Austin plays at an aggressive, blazing pace and ACU will have a tough time keeping up. I like the dog to cover in a sneaky matchup-advantage. May want to sprinkle a little on the money-line, too.

Utah State -6 (-110), 1.5 units: Revenge game at it’s finest! Utah State blew it 2 nights ago (and blew a huge parlay for me, not that I’m still sulking…) when they couldn’t pull ahead late against UNLV. The good news for the Aggies is it’s unlikely that UNLV will shoot over 43% from 3-point land again (they literally couldn’t miss in the second half), and they should be motivated to rebound and play much better defense. Give me the better, more motivated team here. PS- this number is rising so bet it now if you like it!

Saint Joseph’s +12.5 (-110), 1 unit: I know Saint Joseph’s stinks and I know Richmond can put up points, but Richmond can also have incredible stinkers (St. Bonaventure, Loyola IL, Hofstra?). Despite the win/loss disparity between these two teams, Saint Joe’s has played the tougher schedule and they don’t lose by wide-margin unless they’re facing an elite team like Villanova. The only Richmond win I’m impressed by was against Kentucky, but we know the Wildcats are struggling this year. In short, this is a lot of points for a Richmond team to spot, on the road, in conference play. I’ll take a small shot on Hawks for 1 unit.

Pittsburgh wins (+140), 1 unit: Pittsburgh is in a good spot for an upset here. These two teams are very evenly matched, and the Panthers know this is as good a season as any to take out the Tar Heels. Even better, Pitt is traveling back home after a last second loss to Wake Forest– a game where their opponent shot nearly 50% from beyond the arc– which had to leave them frustrated. That should act as a good wake up call. If Pitt had beaten Wake Forest, I’d like this less, but the spot says opportunity for me. Go Pitt!

Alabama -7 (-110), 1.5 units: This is a square, simple pick for me. I wanted to fade the Crimson Tide, but I just couldn’t find any reason to do it. I think Kentucky may be running into a buzz saw tonight. I like the spot even more since the Wildcats got a big win on Saturday against LSU. Good for them, but this is the last team you’d want to face in a potential let-down spot. Alabama has won 9 straight and they score a whopping 81 ppg. I don’t think Kentucky can keep up. Give me the Tide to cover.

LSU -5 (-115), 2 units: Speaking of LSU, the Tigers left a lot on the floor Saturday when they dropped a game to rival Kentucky. We know Alabama can score, but LSU has been even more impressive, averaging 84 ppg and shooting nearly 50% this season. The Tigers are due for some positive regression, especially on offense. I liked this even if LSU won on Saturday; I like it even more since they lost. LSU is dying for a statement win after 2 straight in-conference losses and an Aggies team that’s ranked 198th in offensive efficiency won’t be able to keep pace.

Alcorn State +5 (-110), 1.5 units: What a scintillating battle it will be as two of the worst teams in the country face off when Alcorn State battles Alabama A&M (did you know that Alabama A&M was a college? Be honest). In all seriousness, these are the matchups where a handicapper can find real value. Why? Because the books (and the public) don’t pay as much attention to these weaker conferences and weaker teams. Insert Alcorn State. The consensus in the write-ups I’ve read is that Alabama A&M, who’s undefeated at 4-0 so far, is the right side. Not so fast. Sure, Alcorn State isn’t an impressive team by any means, but their stats are skewed because they’ve faced much better competition: UAB, Liberty, Houston, and ahem, Baylor. For a lowly team like Alcorn State, of course that would drive down their stats. But if you look at how they play against similar opponents (Grambling St., Arkansas Pine-Bluff, MS Valley), their offense is efficient and their defense is solid. Alabama A&M, while they’re 4-0 against sub-average opponents, is no juggernaut or elite team. Therefore, there’s inherent value in Alcorn State. I’ll take the dog and the points.

UVA -6.5 (-115), 1.15 units: Syracuse is a great example of a very solid team that can beat up on weaker opponents and could upset teams in the tournament. The problem is this is a terrible spot for the Orangemen, and UVA is an elite opponent. It’s two days after a big win (they were favored) against VA Tech and the Orangemen’s confidence is probably sky-high. Meanwhile, UVA had to scratch and claw to beat another solid team in GA Tech and squeaked by with a 2 point win. The Cavaliers, who are one of the most well-coached teams in the nation, will clean up some of their sluggish play and should be much more efficient on offense tonight. Well-coached teams improve throughout the season. That doesn’t bode well for a Syracuse team who can get soundly defeated when they face good defenses (Pittsburgh, Rutgers). Remember what UVA did to Clemson? I think that’s what tonight could look like. I’m on the Cavaliers tonight.

Utah State -5.5 (-110), 1 unit: This is a difficult handicap, especially since UNLV has had a considerably tougher schedule thus far (UNLV- 70th, Utah St.- 169th). The difference here is Utah’s State’s defense. Ranked 10th in adjusted defense according to KenPom, the Aggies absolutely stifle teams, especially on the road. The spot is also better for the Aggies, who are coming off a tough double-header against Colorado State and will look to crush an inferior foe. The challenge won’t be as grand against UNLV. I’ll take Utah State for a humble 1 unit.

UNC Wilmington -4.5 (-110), 1 unit: Delaware have one of the worst defenses in the country and the Seahawks play really well, and average 80 ppg, at home. I see this game going just like yesterday’s contest.

Navy -2.5 (-110), 1 unit: Navy controlled the first game from start to finish, playing comfortably ahead throughout. I tried really hard to find a reason to fade Navy in the rematch, but I just don’t see it. Navy is just better than Army and frankly, this line is too low.

Nevada -4 (-110), 2 units: This is game 2 of a doubleheader and Nevada never should have lost the first contest. The Wolfpack shot 4/25 from 3-point land and their leading scorer (Grant Sherfield) was ice cold, shooting only 2/16 from the field and 0/6 from beyond the arc. While all that was true, the game was still tied in the game’s final stretch. Nevada is due for significant positive regression today, and the revenge angle should give us a convincing cover.

SD State -17 (-110), 1.5 units: San Diego St. has a truly exceptional defense, allowing only 60.7 ppg. Meanwhile, Air Force only averages 59.1 ppg on offense… yikes. Game 2 of the doubleheader will look a lot like the first— a blowout.