UFC 259 Best Value Bets – March 6, 2021

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March 4, 2021

What an amazing card for this Saturday’s UFC 259! You better believe it’ll be streaming it on my big-screen. Here are my best value bets for this momentous event:

Dominick Cruz (+105): “The Dominator” used to own the bantamweight division but after a long layoff and then a recent loss to Henry Cejudo, which is certainly nothing to be ashamed of, Cruz hasn’t won since 2016. Make no mistake about it, Cruz is poised to return to his old ways. He’s beaten legends of the octagon like Uriah Faber, TJ Dillashaw, and Demetrius “Mighty Mouse” Johnson. This line is begging you to take Kenny at a reduced underdog price for Cruz. It’s sneaky. Casey Kenny is a reputable fighter worthy of being a slight favorite Saturday night. He’s on a nice little 3 fight win streak, but his wins aren’t against any martial artists worth celebrating. Dominick Cruz has sensational lateral movement, elite timing, and moves at a pace that Kenny hasn’t seen before. This is a great price on a legendary fighter who still has the wind and moxie to win. Bet “The Dominator.”

Joseph Benavidez (+110): Benavidez was one of my favorite betting picks before his gruesome losses to Deiveson Figueiredo. Deemed by multiple announcers and fighters as one of the nicest guys in UFC, Benavidez has an unbelievable gas tank that’s been virtually unmatched until those two losses to the current flyweight champ. Askar Askarov is a gifted fighter with a great ground game, but I don’t think he’s as dominant as it seems. Benavidez has feasted on the Askarov archetype and I think it’s a great matchup for him to get back in the win column. Reluctant to start thinking about retirement, it’s obvious Benavidez still has the gusto to keep his future title chances alive. Bet on my boy Joseph.

Petr Yan (-120): I’m a big Petr Yan guy and I think this is a crazy low price for his first title defense. The Russian native has compiled a 7-0 record in the UFC and brings his 10-fight winning streak on the line when he defends his bantamweight title on Saturday. Aljamain Sterling is a great fighter and even better submission artist. He deserves this title fight after a long journey, but I can’t step in front of Yan here. Yan is a very complete fighter who overwhelms his opponents with pace. He has landed 284 more significant strikes than his foes through his 7 UFC fights, has a striking differential of +3.07, which is 1st among all bantamweights in UFC history, and also ranks 2nd in knockdown average. He hides his ability to submit and grapple but it’s there– he won by guillotine choke in his 3rd professional bout in 2015. He’ll be ready for Sterling. It may seem like I’m undermining and underestimating Sterling. I’m not, and he’s surely capable of dominating Yan on the ground. Petr Yan just gives us no reason to question him. He’s been an absolutely dominate fighter since arriving at the UFC and I don’t think Sterling is dynamic enough to stop him. Unless it’s against Henry Cejudo, I’m not sure if anyone can dethrone Yan for a long time. I think we’re looking at a true hall of famer in Yan and that’ll be on full display Saturday.

Megan Anderson (+650) and Anderson/Nunes over 1.5 rounds (-120): Is it likely that Megan Anderson will beat Amanda Nunes? Hell no. Assuming you know who Nunes is, who most experts call the greatest female UFC fighter of all time, that answer is always “no,” regardless of who her opponent is. But are there reasons to believe Anderson can pull it off? Yes. We won’t review Nunes in detail because we know about the “Lioness.” Megan Anderson is a complete fighter and she’ll have a true size advantage Saturday, one Nunes has never faced. She stands at 6 feet tall (Nunes is 5’8″) and she’ll own a 3.5 inch reach advantage. I also think she’s the hardest hitter Nunes has ever faced. With respect to Cris Cyborg, Anderson’s big frame and background in kickboxing/boxing bring a serious amount of striking skill to the octagon. There’s a ton of power coming behind those shots. Lastly and not to be overlooked– I really like how gritty Anderson is. She fights with fire and ferocity and I doubt she’ll be intimidated by Nunes. Her battle against Holly Holms 2 years ago was a good foreshadowing, as she very nearly beat the world-champion boxer and walked her down throughout the contest. Remember when Holly Holmes knocked out the untouchable Ronda Rousey? Holms approached that fight with the same calculated confidence and she was a similarly priced underdog (I think Holms was at +800). Everyone thought her winning was impossible, too. This line is just too juicy to not take a shot. Nunes is a lioness, not a goddess.

We’re taking the over 1.5 rounds because it’s a misnomer that Nunes ends most of her fights in TKO fashion. Sure, some of her most famous bouts have ended that way (her less than one minute TKO of Ronda Rousey sticks out), but Nunes’ fights routinely go beyond 2 rounds. In fact, her last two fights went the entire 5 rounds. Both fighters should approach each other cautiously out of respect for the other’s knockout capability. The over makes the most sense at a cheap price.

Jan Blachowicz wins (+190): This pick is all about pure polish power. Anyone who’s fought in any sort of boxing or MMA competition knows that Eastern Europeans just hit different (I have a ton of EE in my blood and I box, so yea maybe I’m a homer here). Jan Blachowicz is a great story. In 2017, after losing 4 of his first 6 UFC Fights, Jan turned his career around with steady improvements and won 8/9 of his next battles. That included 5 stoppages. Fast forward to his show-down with Dominick Reyes last year, where Jan crushed Reyes and ended the bout in a second round TKO, earning the title of light heavyweight champion and solidifying this huge showdown against Israel at UFC 259. Israel Adesanya is a mega star at this point, obliterating everyone in his path in the Middleweight Division. He’s bested names like Whittaker, Costa, Brunson, Romero, and the Anderson Silva. If he wins Saturday night, he would overtake Connor McGregor as the youngest champ-champ ever. It’s hard not to love Israel. He’s entertaining, well-spoken, and at times seems like a real-life untouchable ninja. He made Paulo Costa look silly in his last main event. So why do I like Jan? Blachowicz will weigh in at 205 but he’ll be much bigger than Israel when the first bell rings. And what people don’t know about the polish puncher is he’s also really skilled at takedowns and grappling. He has a ton of wins by submission and he’s a skilled take-down artist. The combination of his unique arsenal and assertive physical presence will, in my opinion, give him opportunities that Israel has never had to defend before. And as we all know, it only takes one good landing from the Polish powerhouse to get a knockout win. Israel is a world class martial artist but fighting in a different weight class is no joke. Connor learned the hard way the first time he switched and I think Adesanya does, too. I’ll take the dynamic, more imposing fighter for + money.

NBA Picks and Predictions – March 3, 2021

By

Chris R. Farley

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March 3, 2021

76ers star Joel Embiid posting up against Rudy Gobert.

The Suns/Lakers game very nearly hit the under last night which would have made me a perfect 8-0 so far in March. I’ll take 7-1 and over 11 units any day, though. Let’s “march” on into our hump day NBA picks!

Pacers -5 (-110) *if Domantas Sabonis plays, 1.5 units: The Pacers were in a bad spot against the Knicks Saturday and Philadelphia Monday so we’re not very affected by those losses. Indiana cannot hold their own against the big boys of the East but they can, and usually do, conquer teams like the Cavaliers. The big question here is the health of All-Star center Domantas Sabonis. The big man is questionable Wednesday night and would leave a big hole in the front court if he can’t play. He’s worth a price adjustment but this line tells me that the books suspect he’ll give it a go tonight. The Cavs winning streak is hokey (2 wins against the horrid Rockets and a win against Atlanta before they fired their coach? Not impressed). Watch the injury report and take the Pacers with confidence if Sabonis is in.

76ers +2 (-115), 1.5 units: Are the Jazz falling back to earth? The hottest team in the NBA has now lost 2 of its last 3 games, falling once to an improving Heat team in Miami and then to the Pelicans in New Orleans. Their road stretch continues tonight before heading home to clobber the Rockets on Friday. As it stands, the 76ers won’t rule out Tobias Harris returning tonight to face Utah but if he does, that would mean a completely healthy roster for Philadelphia. Even without Tobias, the Sixers play great basketball at home. Because I fear a Jazz team that can turn around a game in a flash, I’m favoring the half-time line here (something I did yesterday on Memphis and won in the 1st quarter and 1st half). Philadelphia has tough road games following tonight at Chicago and Washington, but I think they come out motivated to beat a Jazz team that’s had everyone talking. Now more than ever, that fuels professional athletes. Bet on Philly to bring it in the first half.

Lean: Hawks -2.5 (-110): This is a lean because I’m not ready to bet on the Hawks just yet but they seem rejuvenated after firing Lloyd Pierce. Sometimes that’s the change a team needs. The Magic can’t win at home but they’ve faced some elite teams in Orlando lately like the Jazz and Nets. Once Atlanta gets some key players back (Reddish, Capella) and healthy, they could be a contender again. Orlando seems in disarray. If I had to bet this, I’m on the Hawks.

Bulls/Pelicans over 237 (-110), 1 unit: I’m only going 1 unit here because the Pelicans can be so up and down (remember when they scored 13 points in a quarter? I do), especially on the offensive end, but this game has the potential to go into the 250s on paper. Chicago’s front court is not impressive, so Zion should be able to impose his will for every minute he plays. Zach LaVine should score a ton against a Pelicans’ team that’s very shallow on defense, particularly at the guard position. Both teams play at a fast tempo (New Orleans’ stats are skewed because they started off the season playing much slower) and both teams struggle on defense. Give me an over where two stars should shine.

Hornets/Timberwolves over 233 (-110), 1.5 units: What makes the T-Wolves so bad? It’s hard to pinpoint just one thing. This is a good spot for them to squeak in a win, but I like the over tonight even better. Neither of these teams play good defense (Charlotte allows 113.5 ppg and Minnesota allows 116.5 ppg) and both rely on shooting and turnovers to stay in games. Not exactly a great recipe, thus the records indicate. I like this even more because the Hornets are on a brutal 6 game road stretch that ends tonight. They just played in Portland on Monday, the furthest city to travel to on the NBA map, and tomorrow they host the lowly Pistons. That makes it very likely that they’ll want to get in and out of Minnesota tonight, which usually amounts to a bad effort on defense. The Timberwolves have to travel to New Orleans tomorrow and may be looking ahead, too. Take the over, and if Cody Zeller sits tonight (he’s questionable at the moment), I would bet on Karl-Anthony Towns to go over 25.5 points (-116 at Bovada).

NCAAM Picks and Predictions – March 3, 2021

By

Chris R. Farley

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March 3, 2021

UConn star James Bouknight dribbling down the court.

Another awesome day as I went 3-1 in CBB and 6-2 overall (NBA/CBB). That makes my record 13-4 so far in March (76%). This has been a hellacious week already and I intend on keeping it up. Let’s get over the hump with more picks:

Saint Joseph’s -2 (-110), 1 unit: Saint Joseph’s men’s basketball has won exactly 4 games this year. Between December and February 20th, they only won a single game. In these last 11 days, they’ve won 3 in a row. That’s pretty incredible. I don’t know if the Hawks are on a true run or if they’re just catching good teams by surprise or good teams in let-down spots, but they’re on a rare streak and I’m jumping on the train. It can’t be that hokey– wins against Dayton and Richmond are pretty darn impressive. La Salle and Saint Joe’s are two even matched bottom dwellers in the Atlantic 10 with not much to play for. I’ll play on the hotter team, who’s win against La Salle on February 20th was the start of their winning streak. Also it’s pretty cool it’s on at 11:00am– why not start hot? Let’s go!

UConn -1.5 (-110), 2 units: If you’re not Villanova, lately you’ve been owned by UConn if you play in the Big East Conference. Marquette, Georgetown, Providence, Xavier– all have fallen victim to the Huskies lately and James Bouknight is a big reason for that. Bouknight returned on February 16th against Providence and the Huskies have won 3 of their last 4 since then. The sophomore out of Brooklyn averages over 16 points and 8 rebounds per game and he shoots nearly 39% from beyond the arc. Most importantly, Bouknight is a great leader who plays hard and knows how to rally the troops. Enter Seton Hall. The Pirates are a solid basketball team but they’re not on UConn’s level, especially not with the way the Huskies have looked the past few weeks. UConn has been exceptional at crashing the offensive glass and creating scoring opportunities, something that should be a real issue all game for Seton Hall to manage. And what’s more– Seton Hall bested the Huskies in their first contest, at UConn. That was without Bouknight but still: insert maximum revenge angle. I expect a motivated UConn, who hasn’t officially made the tournament just yet, to take care of business today in Newark.

Belmont -20.5 (-110), 1.5 units: Evansville, Indiana may be in panic-mode as the Belmont Bruins, who were on an insane 21-game winning streak, have now lost 2 games in a row and are at risk to lose their bid in the NCAA Tournament. Lineups.com gives the Bruins a 49% chance to make it; of course recent losses to Morehead State and Eastern Kentucky haven’t helped. How can Belmont play with the big dogs if they’re losing games against lesser Ohio Valley teams? After a few days to think about their transgressions, the SIU Edwardsville Cougars come to Evansville and it’s go-time for the Bruins. SIUE recently got blown out by Murray State and Austin-Peay and they only seem to play well against the most abysmal Ohio Valley teams. A motivated Belmont team, who needs to win and win by impressive margin, should take care of business in a big way today.

Creighton +4.5 (-110), 1.5 units: This is too many points for the Bluejays. I love the way they looked against Villanova on February 13. Neither team made a ton of mistakes– Creighton was just able to move the ball around with pace and make high percentage shots for all 60 minutes. I realize that sets up for a huge revenge spot tonight, but it doesn’t matter to me. I don’t like what I’ve seen from Villanova lately. Even in wins, they don’t seem to have the same juice since that loss against Creighton. Maybe it was just a down day or a down month, or maybe Creighton figured out some of their weaknesses in ways other teams haven’t? I think it’s the latter, so I’ll take the points all day! Bet Creighton.

UCLA +4 (-110), 1 unit: This show-down has been postponed 3 different times but now we finally get to see it happen. I think this game will look a lot like Baylor and West Virginia last night (what an incredible watch). UCLA has USC on deck, but this game matters most for positioning to win the Pac-12 title. The Bruins are entering Wednesday night off a disappointing loss to Colorado on the road 5 days ago. Oregon has looked really impressive lately, knocking off 3 straight Pac-12 opponents and playing especially incredible at home. Oregon has the advantage down low, but UCLA has the better guards. As long as the Bruins can get open and hit shots, and I think they can, this game should remain close. Both teams play with a slow, methodical tempo, which I think lessens the chances that either team gains any real margin. This will be a back and forth battle between two teams that hate each other and because of that, I gotta take the points with UCLA.

NBA Picks and Predictions – March 2, 2021

By

Chris R. Farley

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March 2, 2021

Bradley Beal after last second shot against the Celtics on Sunday, February 2.

How do you start March with a bang? How about a 4-0 night?! There are few feelings better than hitting on every one of your predictions and watching it unfold. Monday night was solid. Here’s to hoping I made your wallets fatter and to more wins, cheers!

Grizzlies 1st QTR -0.5 (-105) for 1.5 units and Grizzlies 1st HALF -0.5 (105) for 1.5 units: What a deflating loss for the Wizards on Sunday. I watched while playing scrabble with my fiancé and 15 year year old son and couldn’t believe how well Bradley Beal was playing. The guy couldn’t miss. Beal is playing some of the best offensive basketball I’ve seen in a long time. He’s a Kobe-like performer when he’s on fire and his talent can no longer be denied or overshadowed by another teammate. Unfortunately for Beal and the Wizards, they lost in the final seconds. A heroic performance like the one Beal gave Sunday night can be breathtaking for a team in good ways and bad. If they won, I probably wouldn’t be writing this angle, but they didn’t. The Grizzlies just pummeled the Rockets 2 days ago by 49 points. 4…9… POINTS. The Rockets are in complete disarray so I’m not surprised they lost, but that’s a beat-down of epic proportions. Some teams can’t even score 49 points in a half let alone win by that margin. Dominating victories like that create new-found confidence and momentum, and that’s the kind of angle I like to bet on. Memphis will come into Tuesday still riding high from that win. The Wizards were on a hellacious run before that heartbreaking loss and I think it affects them in DC tonight. For the full game, Beal and Westbrook could turn it up and give Washington a win. For the first half, I’ll be on Memphis.

Nuggets +7 (-110), 1.5 units: This is too many points for the Bucks. Now mind you, I’m not a big fan of Milwaukee so is there a chance I have some inherent bias here? Yes, there’s a chance. I don’t love the way they rely on an unreliable Giannis Antetokounmpo and I don’t think Giannis’ supporting cast is that impressive. It’s why they falter every year in the playoffs. That being said, Milwaukee played great at the end of their game against the Clippers on Sunday. While Paul George was missing shots and Kawhi was trying to hold LAC squarely on his shoulders, Giannis dominated. He even made his free throws (slow clap). How impressive for a player signed to a $225 million+ dollar contract. Anyway, the Bucks are undoubtedly feeling fat and sassy heading into Tuesday. They’ve been on a long homestand, where they love to play, and besting the Clippers had to be a high. The Denver Nuggets are an up and down team but lately, they’ve been up. Besides a late-game loss to the Wizards, who have been on quite the tear, the Nuggets beat Portland, trounced OKC at Oklahoma City, and defeated a feisty Bulls team in Chicago last night. Their injuries still alert me on defense as they continue to miss the toughness of Paul Millsap and Gary Harris, but their output on the offensive end hasn’t suffered much. If either Jokic or Jamal Murray have a dominant performance Tuesday, and I don’t think Milwaukee has the moxie to prevent at least one of the Nuggets’ stars from doing so, Denver will present problems. Take the Nuggets getting points.

Suns/Lakers under 213.5 (-110), 1 unit: It’s hard to ever bet an under in an NBA but this number is unusually low for a reason. The Lakers enter Tuesday night leading the association in defensive efficiency and holding teams to 105.6 ppg. The Suns aren’t far behind. Phoenix holds teams to 107.5 ppg and is rated #6 in adjusted defensive efficiency. One stat I like even more: both teams are in the lower half of the NBA in tempo, with Phoenix actually being the slowest team in the NBA next to the Knicks. Even if you threw away all of these suggestive statistics, I like the under most because this game should have a playoff feel. Dennis Schroder and Chris Paul with battle. Lebron and Devin Booker will scrap. Both teams have tough front court players like Montrezl Harrell and Deandre Ayton, and both teams take a lot of pride in how they play defense. I could easily see the first quarter ending around 50 points and the first half flying well below 100. That would position us well. If either team starts hot from the field, I like a live over even more. Only 1 unit out of humility, but all the support is there for an under play.

NCAAM Picks and Predictions – March 2, 2021

By

Chris R. Farley

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March 2, 2021

Baylor basketball players celebrating on the hardwood.

What a nice start to March last night as I went 3-2 overall in CBB for a slight uptick in units (+.88). I went 4-0 in the NBA, which has definitely been my cash cow (check out my Daily NBA Free Picks if you don’t already); let’s catch up! Onto my Tuesday picks:

Baylor -4 (-110), 2 units: Yea I can’t pass on this game. If somehow this loses so be it, but this is another number play on the Bears after a very disappointing loss against Kansas last weekend. Baylor was in the conversation as one of the best regular season college basketball teams anyone had seen in quite some time. Elite on offense and defense, they looked like the same dominant squad every single time you watched them. They also had no problem covering most of their spreads (68.4% ATS on the year), even after they were getting inflated. Baylor heads into tonight to face a very tough West Virginia team at their home court. It’s not an ideal spot since it’s their second straight tough road game and they have two more big games on deck against Oklahoma State and Texas Tech. But the good news is the Bears have, obviously, already made the tournament (and so has West Virginia). These games are more for pride and momentum. Last time out against Kansas, Baylor got out-rebounded 48-28. They also shot a poor 35% from the field and an even poorer 23% from beyond the arc. Do you think that’ll continue? I don’t. Eventually, and I think it’s tonight, the Bears will obliterate someone. The Mountaineers are a really good ball club and their big man Derek Culver is dominant. They’ll be motivated, too. I just think this means more to Baylor and West Virginia is the unfortunate victim. The Bears need to get right. Baylor win by 10.

Illinois +8 (-110), 1.5 units: I’m not saying I think the Illini will win this game, but Michigan has been about as consistent and dominant as any team in the nation, so eventually you’d think they could have at least a slight let-down game or let their guard down a tad. Illinois is not a team you want to do that against– just ask Wisconsin. Big man Kofi Cockburn is capable of dominating a game on both ends of the floor and he won’t be an easy matchup for Michigan’s young star Hunter Dickinson. Their guards, who were responsible for most of the scoring Saturday, proved they could hold up their team, too. Besides a little blip on the radar where Illinois lost to Michigan State, the Illini have won 8 of their last 9 contests and should not be taken lightly. Both teams are locks for the postseason but neither wants to lose momentum. The Wolverines are fantastic on defense but I don’t think they’ll be able to completely stifle the Illini– their offense is too good and too consistent. Take Illinois with the points.

Xavier -2.5 (-110), 1 unit: Georgetown plays better at home but that stat is a bit overstated. The Hoyas are about as good on the road (57%) as they are at home (58%) against the spread. Tonight, covering the spread may prove very difficult. The Xavier Musketeers come into Tuesday night after a great win over Creighton that may have been the boost they needed to keep their tournament hopes alive. They need to keep winning, though, and tonight’s game and Thursday’s game against Marquette (also on the road) stand in the way. I’m sure Georgetown would love to play spoiler. Xavier is a much better shooting team overall than the Hoyas. The only issue is Xavier likes to take high percentage shots; an area where Georgetown is particularly skilled on defense. The Hoyas are also great rebounders. This won’t be an easy win. I’m an edge/angle bettor more than a stats bettor though and it’s served me well. Xavier is still the more skilled and more prolific scoring team and they NEED this game. Give me the Musketeers at a reduced line.

Ole Miss -2.5 (-110), 1.5 units: Ole Miss and Kentucky are two evenly matched teams with very slim chances to make the tournament, but this is more about line movement cues. Kentucky has been very up and down lately, particularly on the offensive side of the court. This isn’t a good look going up against an Ole Miss team that’s only allowing 64.7 ppg in their last three contests. Kentucky is also pretty horrible against the spread (ATS). The Wildcats are 3-5-2 (37%) ATS on the road and 6-14-2 (30%) ATS overall. That’s abysmal. They also turn the ball over on the road, averaging 15.9 turnovers per away game. What we’re seeing in this line today is a great microcosm of how the season has gone for these two teams. Kentucky just hasn’t maxed out their potential, while Ole Miss has played better than expected. The Rebels are at home and their solid defense should give Kentucky issues. This is a better spot for Ole Miss and the sharps agree– this line keeps moving up. Bet on the Rebels to cover the number.

College Basketball 3/2/21 Tuesday 2-Pack

By

Kiev O'Neil

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March 2, 2021

COLLEGE BASKETBALL: NOV 25 Georgia State at Georgia Tech — ATLANTA, GA NOVEMBER 25: Georgia Tech head coach Josh Pastner talks to his players in the huddle while wearing a face shield during the NCAA basketball game between the Georgia State Panthers and the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets on November 25th, 2020 at Hank McCamish Pavilion in Atlanta, GA. (Photo by Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Duke vs Georgia Tech -1.5 O/U 146

Everyone is talking like Duke is now on their way to the NCAA tournament and is a much improved team but I am going to pump the breaks a little on that narrative.
The big question is if Duke is a good team or were they just a hot team? I think they were hot.
Georgia tech is a team that we made some money on this year and they are well on their way to tournament birth.
Both of these teams stat-wise are pretty equal. Both shoot the pretty well at 35.7% but both teams have issues defending it allowing about 37% to go in.
Duke is the better rebounding team at 35 to 31 but Georgia Tech has the better assist to turnover ratio at 1.5 to 1.3.
I like that this is a small revenge spot for the Yellow Jackets at home and I think that they make this a statement game with the better D.

Georgia Tech -1.5 – 2 stars

Wisconsin vs Purdue -1.5 O/U 129.5

I am a huge Badger Alumni and fan but Wisconsin has been overrated all year long on Kenpom.
Wisconsin has gotten by playing good defense as usual but they haven’t figured out how to rebound and run good plays.
Wisconsin’s shooting percentage is a pathetic 42% and the fact that they don’t rebound well on the offensive side of the ball ranking 277th in the league in offensive rebounds really can spell disaster for this team.
Wisconsin is soft down low and when they face good bigs they get smoked.
Purdue on the other hand is a team that keeps improving. They are huge down low with 6’10 Travion Williams and 7’4 Zach Edey cleaning up boards while future freshman stars like Jaden Ivey is driving to the hole while Sasha Stefanovic is shooting 3s. Purdue has the greatest upside out of any team out there.
Wisconsin is an even worse road shooting team at 39% shooting and 29.9% from 3 point land.
If Purdue wins this game, they clinch the double bye in the big 10 tournament. I like Purdue to win by 3.

Purdue -1.5 – 1.5 stars

Bonus: HORIZON LEAGUE: Money Line Rollover on Detroit starting with 1U. I think this team has the most upside to win their tournament bracket.

NCAAM Picks and Predictions – March 1, 2021

By

Chris R. Farley

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March 1, 2021

An Oklahoma defender squaring up against an Oklahoma State guard.

The month of February gave us a great deal of variance in the world of college hoops. At this time of year, the really solid coaches and teams tend to separate from the weaker ones, just as cream in coffee always rises to the top. I hope to take advantage of that as the tournament bubble approaches. If you don’t count the two flyer-bets we had for plus money, we were a nice 3-1 yesterday. Onto Monday’s free picks:

Stephen F. Austin -11.5 (-110), 1.5 units: The Lumberjacks blew out Central Arkansas by 26 points in their first contest. Stephen F. Austin routinely wins by great margin against weaker Southland Conference teams and Monday should be no exception– the Bears have lost their last five games by an average of nearly 17 points. This is a big mismatch, both on paper and in reality, and the Lumberjacks need a win to keep their slim chances (23% according to Lineups.com) of making the tournament alive. Bet on SF Austin!

Richmond -14.5 (-110), 1.5 units: Richmond beat Saint Joseph’s easily in their first matchup by 23 points and, just like my analysis in the game above, Richmond needs to keep winning to sustain their hopes of tournament play (29%). The Hawks had no answer for the Spiders’ offense back in January and that won’t flip today. Richmond boasts a top 25 adjusted offense according to KenPom and averages over 83 ppg. And trust me, most of that output was against defenses that are way more effective than Saint Joseph’s. Bet on Richmond and don’t look back.

Miami/Virginia under 123 (-110), 1 unit: Miami has just looked horrible lately and the Cavaliers really need a win– which usually means they flex and show out more on defense than offense. A recently very ineffective offense against an angry Virginia defense? I won’t overthink this. Give me the under.

Oklahoma -1.5 (-115), 1.5 units: Oklahoma was well ahead 2 days ago against Oklahoma State before the Cowboys turned up the pace and scoring. One stat that pops out from Saturday’s game is the disparity in rebounds. The Sooners got throttled on the boards, losing the battle 45-28 to the Cowboys. Oklahoma is a much better rebounding team and they’re much better defensively than what they showed. I expect a lower-scoring affair with a tempo more controlled by Oklahoma tonight. If they allow the pace to speed up like they did Saturday, OK State could pull away. Oklahoma has the revenge angle and can modify their approach to overcome the Cowboys. Bet Boomer-Sooner!

Colorado State -18 (-105), 1.5 units: We’ve seen this story before (actually we saw it 2 days ago). Air Force is really bad. I won’t break it down and waste your time, but the Falcons are in the bottom third of the nation in virtually every category (except luck, not shockingly). Colorado State is officially the final team that would make the NCAA Tournament if it started today, leaving their current chances of getting a bid at 22%. They need to win this game and they shellacked Air Force 72-49 on Saturday. The Rams play fast, run an effective offense and have a top 50 defense, too. I don’t see how Air Force keeps this close. The Rams win by 20+ again.

NBA Picks and Predictions – March 1, 2021

By

Chris R. Farley

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March 1, 2021

Well February was a good month. My NBA Picks went 58-42 overall, which is a 58% win clip. I want over 60%– Who’s ready for March?! Let’s start hot with today’s picks:

76ers -4.5 (-110), 2 units with Embiid, 1 unit without: This bet isn’t about the Pacers, who are a solid mid-tier team, it’s about the Sixers. I handicapped this line at around 8 or 9 with Embiid playing, so I love the value we’re getting here. Even if Embiid sits out, Ben Simmons is having an incredible season and the Sixers have enough firepower to cover this line. Doc Rivers ripped into his team about their lack of effort Saturday night, blowing a game late to a Cavs team that seemed hungrier to win. If Philadelphia shows up groggy again, Indiana is more than capable of handedly beating them. Now losers of 3 in a row, the Pacers are hungry for a win, too. Last time out, the Sixers beat the Pacers 119-110 in Indianapolis. Joel Embiid didn’t play in that game either and usually Philly struggles on the road, so that’s a good sign for tonight. I think the Sixers supporting cast rises to the occasion Monday in primetime and overwhelms a Pacers team that’s not nearly as talented and still without some key players. Bet Philly.

Nuggets/Bulls over 228 (-110), 2 units: I set this total around 235 and I still leaned over. I really like this total to go over for a few reasons. Firstly, we have two young superstars in Jamal Murray and Zach LaVine, which should make for a good back and forth scoring show. Secondly, I love the way Denver matches up against the Bulls. The Nuggets are 10th in the NBA in forcing turnovers, while Chicago is 28th in the NBA in turnover percentage, coughing it up at a rate of 15.9% per possession. That should generate a ton of easy points for the Nuggets. Thirdly, I also like the Bulls matchup on offense. The Bulls play with the 6th quickest pace in the NBA. Denver, meanwhile, is still suffering from key injuries that weaken their defense (Paul Millsap and Gary Harris, specifically). It’s tough to find a Nuggets game that’s gone under 220 points lately because it rarely happens. The Bulls will enjoy some positive regression scoring tonight after being humbled by Phoenix two nights ago, too. Over, over, OVER.

Cavs +4 (-110), 1.5 units: How can I not bet against this Rockets team as a favorite? This line is dropping so bet the Cavs while you can. The ordeal with Victor Oladipo is getting worse– he didn’t play Sunday and he didn’t accept Houston’s contract extension offer, which means he could be a prime trade candidate moving forward. Houston, at home, got absolutely blown out by a mid-tier Grizzlies team Sunday night. Now the Cavs come to town riding a nice little 3 game winning streak, including an OT win at Philadelphia. Kevin Love won’t be back until post-All Star break but that’s cool with us; Cleveland is used to it. Other Cavs players like Dean Wade, Darius Garland and Collin Sexton have stepped up in big ways. Once a team I really thought could be a contender this year and fun to watch without Harden, the Rockets are in disarray right now and I have to bet against them. Give me the more energized dog.

Blazers -6 (-110), 2 units: Anticipating that the Hornets could pull off a win last night, which they did, I got this line at -6. Right now I’m seeing it at -7 or -6.5 at most books, which is a line I still like. This is a horrid spot for the Hornets. Charlotte won last night off a huge performance from PJ Washington, some late-game heroics, and some late-game flubs by the Kings. Now the Hornets have to travel from Sacramento to Portland (not as short a trip as you might think) one night later and take on a Blazers team who’s hungry for a win and at the genesis of a 4-game home stand. I’m not sure if Cody Zeller or Gordon Hayward play tonight for the Hornets. We saw the toll that took on the team last night. Every team not named the Pistons or Rockets should easily beat the Kings right now. Last time out, Portland was stifled by an aggressive Lakers defense, a game where superstar Damian Lillard received little offensive support. I expect significant improvement from the Portland offense tonight, especially against a much weaker and tired defense. Bet on the Blazers with confidence and add them as a parlay leg, too.

NBA Picks and Predictions – Feb 28, 2021

By

Chris R. Farley

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February 28, 2021

Derrick Rose, posing in his new NY Knicks jersey before a game.

A good overall week above .500 and we’re 56-40 overall on NBA bets in February. I want my record officially over 60% to end this month strong, so let’s attack these picks with ferocity today and get, that, MONEY!

Clippers win (-110), 1.5 units: I love betting against Milwaukee in spots like this. The Bucks are, once again, starting to feel fat and sassy as they’ve been dominating weaker opponents at home. That’s what the Bucks do and it really doesn’t impress me. The Clippers have quietly won 7 of their last 10 games and Paul George should officially be less limited today and at full strength. Jrue Holiday returns for Milwaukee, which could be a good thing, or it may throw off the flow of their offense since he’s been out for so long. Like I’ve said many times before, Milwaukee struggles in games against well-balanced, elite teams like LAC, LAL, Toronto, and Philadelphia. The Clippers are good on both ends of the court. The Bucks need to overwhelm LAC with a fast tempo and high percentage shots from Giannis. I don’t see it. A buttoned up, strengthening Clippers team gets the win Sunday.

Wizards +6.5 (-110), 1.5 units: Boston is off the schneid and now, rut row, they turn around and see a buzzing Washington team heading their way. Getting 6.5 points with the surging Wizards against an up and down Celtics team is what I love to see and take advantage of. Boston comes off a win against Indiana 2 nights ago and while I slow clap and applaud their efforts, the Pacers are a team they should beat. It’s nothing to exalt. The Celtics have tough games around the corner this week: LAC, Toronto, and Brooklyn. They could definitely be looking ahead on Sunday. Washington is playing some inspired basketball right now. Winners of 7 of their last 8, and against quite a few top 10 teams, the Wizards are playing great team ball and facilitating their star Bradley Beal, who continues to lead the NBA in scoring by nearly 3 points (which is a ridiculous margin, by the way). I’m all over the Wiz-kids again.

Warriors/Lakers over 221 (-105), 1.5 units: The Warriors play at the 2nd fastest pace and score the 8th most in the NBA at 114.7 ppg. The Lakers, still without Anthony Davis, got back the little beast that is Dennis Schroder on Friday night and we saw the difference he can make. Schroder is unafraid to drive to the basket or take on the most elite scorer. He’s a pest in every way. Now he’ll go up against Steph Curry, arguably the most elite perimeter scorer in NBA history. I think Schroder will bother Curry but he’ll lose more often that he wins. What Portland didn’t have 2 nights ago was a ton of offensive support outside of Damian Lillard. The Warriors are seeing game-by-game improvements from Looney, Wiseman, Wiggins, and especially from Kelly Oubre Jr. Draymond Green has served as one hell of a facilitator as well. I think Golden State can make LAL uncomfortable often enough to drive this total over. This feels more like a 119-115 type of game.

Knicks -1 (-105), 2 units: Derrick Rose in a comeback game against his former team? Julius Randle against a shallow Detroit front court? The Knicks– who play stifling defense– against an offense that can’t score against inferior defenses? I won’t over-analyze this game. I love the Knicks in this spot and would be shocked if they lost. If they do, it’s because someone gets hurt, a key NY player is on “rest,” or the Pistons have the game of their life. The Knicks should win this easily.

NCAAM Picks and Predictions – Feb 28, 2021

By

Chris R. Farley

-

February 28, 2021

Maryland basketball players passing the ball.

What a nice ass-kicking that was yesterday. Only one of my official plays hit, my two leans actually won, and Baylor and Duke swiftly blew their spots. Maybe at this point it doesn’t mean much when I say it, but I feel good about today’s angles. Cringing and awaiting the jinx, here are my free picks for Sunday’s college hoops:

Villanova -11 (-115), 1 unit: As the NCAA Tournament draws near, we’re starting to see elite teams lay wood on weaker opponents in an effort to gain momentum before the madness. Jay Wright is one of the more buttoned up coaches in the country. I actually really like Villanova (+1600) as a potential tournament winner for that reason. He’ll have the Wildcats ready for this one, so the “revenge spot” angle or “let-down” angle doesn’t scare me here today. The Wildcats beat Butler handedly in their first matchup by 19 points. The Bulldogs got a nice win against Seton Hall recently; nice. But they’ll be humbled today. Just one unit, but a trust the significantly better team to show it today.

Memphis -3.5 (-115), 1 unit: I don’t love betting on an away favorite, but Cincinnati lost a key member of their offense when guard David DeJulius announced he was opting out earlier this week. Memphis boasts the #2 ranked adjusted defense in the country, which will be present a significant challenge for a home dog who struggles to score. Cincinnati has a slim chance to make the tournament; Memphis is in a much better position to get there. I wish this line was at 2.5 or 3, but I’ll put one unit on the Tigers winning by 2 possessions. They’re the more complete, better positioned team here.

Maryland -2 (-110), 2 units: This line probably should be higher but Michigan State has a popular brand in the world of college hoops, so all we need is the Terps to close it out with a one-possession lead at home Sunday. Winners of now 4 in a row, Maryland has eked their way into the tournament with effective offense and stout defense in the month of February, besting a range of tough Big 10 opponents. Their bid still isn’t guaranteed, however, so the Terps need this game as much as Sparty. Michigan State has showed some real gumption recently and I still love me some Tom Izzo, but this feels like a spot where Sparty gets humbled once again in an effort to recreate magic. The Terps are a more balanced, better unit. Bet Maryland.

UTEP -6.5 (-110), 1.5 units: UTEP waxed the 49ers yesterday and I see no reason why this game looks any different. Charlotte needs turnovers to have a chance against good offenses, something they failed to do Saturday and it’s unlikely they’ll succeed today. The Miners are at home for the second straight game and they know how to beat the 49ers. Expect them to execute again on the Sabbath. A line at -6.5 feels way too low.

Loyola (MD) wins (+155), 1 unit and
Lehigh wins (+145), 1 unit: I’ll take a shot on one of these two teams to win today. I like Lehigh a little more at home, but the disparity between Lafayette/Lehigh and Loyola /Navy isn’t that tremendous. Loyola and Lehigh both play at a significantly quicker tempo than their foes. Plus, neither of the favorites have a great shot at making the tournament (Navy: 19%, Lafayette: 3%). This is a double-header in both games where both of the favorites got a win in the first contest– something tells me at least one of these dogs will hit today. I’ll spread one unit on each and say a prayer.