Pelicans / Timberwolves over 221 (-110), 1.5 units: Well, if the Pelicans keep playing at THAT pace (I had the under in the Pelicans/Jazz game 2 nights ago and I’m still fuming), then we’re looking at a lot more overs. Assuming they do, and why wouldn’t they since it worked so well, a fast-paced Pelicans offense will routinely win against the last-placed Timberwolves defense. Minnesota can score plenty, too, so this game should, emphasis on should, be a sure-fire over. Don’t let me down twice, New Orleans!
Lakers -9 (-110), 1.5 units: The Lakers, who are as disciplined and consistent as it comes, now have something extra to motivate them- maintaining their road game winning streak. The Bulls come off a nice win in Charlotte and turn around a day later to face the defending champs the following night. Not an easy task. The Bulls are on the rise, but the talent, coaching, and teamwork disparity (not to mention statistical disparity in just about every category) between these teams is high. It’s LAL in another double digit win for me.
This is going to be a wonderful fight to watch. Both fighters are the same age at 32 years old and both are very hungry show the world who is the best. Conner is back and better than ever. We saw him destroy Donald Cerrone about a year ago in the first round with a head kick and punches. The rest of his record really speaks for itself at 22-4 with 19 KOs, 1 submission and 2 decisions. When Conner fights he goes right for the jugular and finishes a lot of his fights in the first 2 rounds which is why you see so much juice on the under 2.5 rounds prop at -170. Now Dustin Poirier is a very deserving opponent for this matchup and he isn’t no slouch himself. He is 26-6-1 with only 1 loss since 2014 to the best fighter in the world Kabib Nurmagomedov who has beaten Conner himself back in 2018. His next loss dating back to 2014 was actually his only other fight that he had with McGregor where he suffered his only KO/TKO. Poirier also likes to finish fights early with 12 KO/TKOs, 7 submissions and 7 decisions. He has some great wins vs guys like Max Halloway and Justin Gaethje. Now the key to making money in this fight is to look at the weaknesses. Conner has never been knocked out but in his only 4 losses, he has been submitted each time. Poirier does have 7 submissions and he would be crazy to not go for that in this huge fight. The payoff for this is +1100 which is huge if Dustin can pull this off. On the other end of the spectrum, Conner is that great of a fighter and will probably win by KO/TKO DQ but the price on that is quite high at -300. Being that Conner has only 1 submission and he has went the distance only twice in his whole career and has never been knocked out, I have to think that he is going to win by knockout and laying -200 has more value in this situation. From a betting standpoint, I hope Dustin wins by at 11-1 but I’ll take the 1-2 with Conner as well.
McGregor -200 to win by KO/TKO DQ – 2 star premium shared
Dustin Poirier to win by submission +1100 – .5 star premium shared
BONUS: Dan Hooker and Michael Chandler to go the distance -105 – 1 star premium shared
Usually, the best defensive oriented teams play slow. Ask Virginia and Texas Tech that question. Somehow Baylor is able to play fast and do exceptionally well at defense while still ranking number 4 in offense. Baylor is undefeated and their closest win was against Iowa State believe it or not when they only won by 7 points. I wonder if Baylor was asleep that game. I must say that I am very impressed by Scott Drew and I am not sure that Gonzaga is the number one team. In saying that, I feel Oklahoma State is a bit underrated. They have had their share of punches this year but they also like to step up in big games winning against Marquette, Texas Tech and Kansas. The Cowboys have a stud freshman guard in Cade Cunningham who leads the team in points scored as well as assists. He will be motivated to upset this Baylor team who just got off of a tough game vs Kansas. Believe it or not, Baylor can get a little sloppy with the ball ranking only 8th in conference play in turnover rate. The Bears also have to regress at some point ranking 4th in three point percentage at over 42%. Both teams play fast believe it or not with the Cowboys ranking 40th in seconds per possession and Baylor ranking 58th. I think that the over is in play this game if it drops down below 145 due to the pace and the fact that Oklahoma State ranks number 3 in offense in the Big 12 with Baylor ranking number 1. I also will look to take the home dog here and see if I can catch Baylor sleeping.
Oklahoma State +9 – 1.5 star premium and sprinkle
LSU vs Kentucky -1.5 O/U 147
Kentucky just isn’t a good team this year and this is why you need to stay on that fade train. Kentucky gets bets because of their name and their name only. How else could any team ranking 298th in effective FG % at 45.9%and 294th in offensive turnovers be a favorite to an LSU team who ranks 33rd in effective FG% at 54.8%. Both teams are coming off of a loss but LSU’s loss came with their worst shooting day at 37% when they average 48% all year long. When Kentucky lost to Georgia, they actually shot 42% which is above their average of 41%. I think Kentucky will once again struggle with LSUs speed like they did vs Alabama, Georgia and Auburn this year. Take the short road dog.
UFC 257 has a few marquee matchups and we’re excited to sit back and take it all in before the big AFC/NFC Championship games on Sunday. Below are four value picks that are worth a look. Don’t overspend on any of these – they’re cheap for a reason – but I expect at least 1 or 2 of these to hit. Wouldn’t be shocked if they all hit (wouldn’t write about it if I didn’t feel that way!). Not seen here is my full write-up on Poirier vs. McGregor – check out the full analysis. I cannot WAIT for that battle!
Movsar Evloev by points (-150): Movsar is the big favorite here for a reason at more than -300 odds, but unlike most dominant fighters, he loves to go the distance. Since joining the UFC, Movsar has yet to win a fight by anything BUT a decision. I think this is the best value bet for the early fight.
Julianna Pena wins (+113): Julianna has only lost against UFC’s elite. Sara McMahon is a small favorite but this is Pena’s chance to re-establish herself among the best. I get why McMahon is favored with her depth of experience (she faced the likes of Ronda Rousey and Miesha Tate), but she had recent losses against average opponents and it tells me the game is starting to wear her down. I trust a younger vet who has more to gain.
Amanda Ribas within distance (+185): Ribas is the younger, stronger fighter and the clear favorite at -325 odds. Her last fight ended in an impressive submission over UFC star Paige VanZant. I have full confidence that she’ll win against a vastly inferior opponent, but what’s different about Amanda is how she finishes fights. Unlike a lot of UFC’s female fighters, most of Amanda’s fights end early, with the majority of her 10 wins by TKO (3) or submission (4). I think she could easily do it again Saturday night, so this is fantastic value.
Michael Chandler wins (+115): The striker or the wrestler… We’ve seen this time and time again, and more often than not it’s the wrestler who dominates. I’ll be favoring that side here again, as Michael Chandler makes his long awaited UFC debut. While Hooker has been parading around Fight Island with a nonchalant grin, Chandler can’t wait to tell everyone how excited he is to finally be in the UFC. I love intangibles like that before a big fight. Hooker is dangerous, but Chandler is highly motivated to prove himself and I think he controls the fight on the ground and walks away with a win.
This is going to be a great matchup for Friday’s viewing pleasure. Michigan is maybe the best team in the big 10 next to Iowa and Purdue is the hottest team in the big 10 ripping 4 wins in a row against Michigan State, Indiana, Penn State and Ohio State. Purdue has a few big guys down low with Travion Williams and 7’4 Freshman Zach Edney and one would think that they stuff people down low when in reality, they give up 63% of their points in the paint. Michigan is a top scorer down making 71% of their points in the paint with with a few big guys. 6’10 Austin Davis is a senior and 7’1 Freshman Hunter Dickenson has become a real surprise this year playing 63% of the minutes. Both teams have the same weakness in turning the ball over with Purdue ranking 13th worst in the Big 10 at 18.7% in conference play and Michigan ranking 14th or dead last at 19.2%. Besides down low, Michigan shoots the ball better than Purdue ranking number 9 in effective FG % at 58.2 while Purdue ranks 76th at 52.5. Even on defense Michigan ranks better than Purdue. I have to go with the Wolverines here as the short favorite on the road who are probably still feeling that away game loss vs Minnesota.
Michigan -3 (I like it up to -4) – 2.5 star premium shared play
Niagara vs Quinnipiac -1 O/U 131
MAAC teams are 103-83-7 at home since 2019.
Quinnipiac is 3-1 ATS at home so far this year.
Niagara is 12-15 on the road since 2019
This is more of a fade to Niagara. Their best win was against number 245 Albany and they lost some stinkers to teams like Rider and 2 to Manhattan
Baker Dunleavy who coaches the Bobcats has a pretty big basketball background as you probably remember his dad Mike Dunleavy in the NBA. They don’t have a good offense but they have a solid defense ranking number 2 in the conference.
Quinnipiac has done well the first game of each conference series with a win vs Manhattan and taking Monmouth to overtime.
Niagara is 1-4 ATS the first games of their series.
Hawks -5 (-110), 1.5 units: The poor Timberwolves will continue to be without Karl-Anthony Towns, which is really putting a black hole in the middle of their defense (and offense, for that matter). The Hawks are better on all sides of the ball and they’ve consistently beaten up on subpar teams like Minnesota. Take the Hawks with confidence.
Mavericks -2.5 (-110), 2 units and Nuggets +1 (-110), 1.5 units: I’m on both of these sides for the same reason– the Mavericks and Nuggets aren’t getting enough respect yet and we’re here to take advantage. The stock on the Suns is rising and the Spurs will always be a solid team with Gregg Popovich at the helm, but Dallas and Denver are two supremely talented and experienced playoff teams. One of the key angles in sports betting is investing in a team before they get hot, and this feels like that moment. Despite their average records, both squads are among the top 10 teams in point differential and they’re shooting at a higher FG % than both of their opponents tonight. Expect better things for Dallas and Denver, starting now.
Lean Kings (wait for a better number than -4, preferably -2 or -1): WARNING— most of the sites I’ve read analyzing this game are on the Knicks side, so this is a rather contrarian pick. The Knicks left Oracle Arena last night with a big upset win to start off a 4-game road trip. Tom Thibodeau has the Knicks playing tough, disciplined basketball, so we see why bettors like the NY side tonight. That isn’t the first time they’ve gotten a big upset win. The Kings, on the other hand, don’t give us a lot of reasons to love them. They’re ranked dead last in opponent’s ppg and their ATS records are abysmal. So then why are the Kings favored by 4? Take a look at point differential. Oddly, the Knicks allow the least amount of points in the NBA, but they’re last in scoring offense. That’s a good setup for the Kings, who have no issue scoring points. The Knicks are also riding high after their win at Golden State. This feels like an above-average let-down spot. The Kings are riding a 4 game losing streak and they’re at home. Sneaky play, but I’m on the Sacramento side tonight; how much will depend on the line.
We have a wonderful show for you today! Kyle Hunter @Huntersportspicks comes back to break down the NFL conference playoffs with some plays and some college basketball games and plays for the weekend! First, Kiev answers a listener question who bet $44 to win $1000 if the super bowl matchup is Tampa Bay vs Buffalo. Chris from Iowa asks how he can maximize or guarantee a profit when the 2 leg hedge involves the Packers at -190 and the Chiefs at -125. The equation is 1.9x + 1.25(1.9x + x) + x = $1044. Then, Kiev talks about some college basketball betting spots based on shooting percentage, opponent free throw and 3 point percentage and overall strength of schedule. Next, Kyle Hunter comes on to discuss some NFL playoffs! Which game does Kyle feel more comfortable betting? Will weather affect these games? Are there any angles or trends to look at? After that, Kyle and Kiev talk about some College Basketball games and plays for this huge weekend in sports. Should you need any games broken down for next week, please tweet us @TheOddsBreakers. Have a wonderful weekend!
NFL: Tampa Bay vs Green Bay – Buffalo vs Kansas City
NCAA Basketball: Michigan vs Purdue – Baylor vs Oklahoma State and more!
Should you need a sportsbook please visit betonline.ag and use the promo code, “Odds200” to get a 200% sign up bonus!!!! Terms, conditions and location apply.
For only 24.99 a month become an ODDSBREAKER’S MEMBER and gain access to all premium picks BEFORE the line moves please visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop!
It’ll be the second meeting between the Bills and Chiefs when they face off Sunday, though I dare say there’s much more at stake. The first contest was evenly matched, with each team playing solid defense and consistently scoring. The Chiefs edged the Bills in Week 6 with effective running, ball control, and of course clutch passes by Mahomes. Let’s take a look at each team and how they match up.
The football world collectively gasped last week when we saw a dizzy Patrick Mahomes unable to stand upright after taking a big hit. Fortunately, probably because God just loves football (or he hates Cleveland), a badass run by Chad Henne and a ballsy call by Andy Reid has the Chiefs advancing, and it looks like Mahomes is healthy enough to play, too. I won’t speculate on whether or not that’s a good decision, but if Mahomes is out there, even if he’s not fully healthy, this is obviously a different ballgame.
The Chiefs ran the ball really well in Week 6. They looked a lot like the Chiefs last week, actually, sans Clyde Edwards-Hilaire. It looks like the rookie RB will return Sunday, which should only boost their attack. The Bills have an exceptional linebacking crew, but I don’t think they’re good enough to shut down Kansas City’s stars. Keep an eye on Travis Kelce to make more big plays when Mahomes’ scrambles, something that’s seemingly impossible to stop. I also like Andy Reid to call more aggressive, creative plays to take the onus off his star quarterback.
Buffalo should really be on a 12 game-winning streak, but the “Hail Murray” trims it down to 8. Good enough. The Bills offense has been unstoppable at times, and the chemistry between Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs is off the charts. The Chiefs are pretty good against the pass, but they’re susceptible against the run. This isn’t an ideal matchup for Buffalo, who only runs the ball 39% of the time, but I do think Josh Allen can take advantage and make some plays on the ground. The Bills’ QB has racked up 420 rushing yards this season, and in pressure moments he’ll need to make big plays with his legs.
Speaking of pressure, no one is really pointing it out, but this is a BIG moment for Josh Allen. Contrary to what the pundits may say, home field DOES matter in the playoffs. In Buffalo, with those insanely fun and boisterous fans, the Bills are at a clear advantage. Now, Josh Allen and company travel to Arrowhead. I don’t know how many fans were in attendance last week in Kansas City, but it sounded like a full capacity crowd. This is a high-pressure spot that Allen hasn’t seen all year, and it just feels like it’s a little too early for him to get passed it. I believe in Allen as a rising star but remember– Mahomes didn’t get to the Super Bowl right away, either.
Getting a line like this on the defending Super Bowl champs, even with Mahomes not at 100%, is one hell of a deal. Even if it’s not the “right side,” which would be hard to posit, there’s so much inherent value on betting the Chiefs at a number like this. I absolutely love the Bills and I wouldn’t be sad if I lost this bet, but my intellect and betting experience tell me to pick Kansas City. God speed!
Free Pick: Chiefs -3 (-115), 2 units Free Prop: Josh Allen over 33.5 rushing yards (-112), 2 units
Lean: Total over 54 (-110)
Note: The public loves the Bills, so there’s a chance that this line goes down a little. This, of course, depends on how “public” your book is. It is unlikely, however, since the Chiefs with Mahomes back at -3 is still a super bargain!
Penn State wins (+105), 1 unit: Rutgers and Penn State are two very evenly matched teams. They both play solid defense and they’ve both played one of the toughest schedules in college basketball. One stat that pops out: KenPom ranks Penn State as having some of the worst luck in the nation. On paper, this is a BAD Penn State team, but this is a real shot for them to end their 5-game losing streak. I don’t see either team pulling away and since they’re so similar, I like PSU to edge out Rutgers at home.
Colorado State +8 (-110), 2 units: This is the second meeting in 2 days between Colorado State and Utah State. The Rams are a very solid team, but Utah State got the best of them in game 1, beating them handedly 83-64. Take a look at the box score and you’ll see why. Utah State shot 45.6% from the field and a ridiculous 52.6% from beyond the arc. Brock Miller shot 60% himself. The Rams didn’t do as well, shooting 40.4% from the field and only making 1/3 of their three-pointers. This game wasn’t close in the first half but it was in the second, which is how I think it’ll look tonight. Give me the dog in a back-to-back rivalry game.
Portland +22 (-105), 1 unit: This is a weak spot for BYU, the clearly superior team, against a Portland team that should be more motivated to play its best basketball. I’ll take a shot on Portland to cover on a number that feels a little too big.
Lakers -1 (-115), 1.5 units: The Lakers were on a very busy schedule last week, playing 5 games in 8 days. That stretch ended with an upset loss against Golden State, who came back from a 20 point deficit to get the W. The Bucks are still probably the best team in the East, but like a lot of teams they don’t match up well against LAL. Anthony Davis called his team out after their loss to the Warriors, which I love, and I think Lebron and Davis and the whole Lakers’ squad plays with a lot of fire tonight, edging the Bucks late.
Pelicans/Jazz under 217.5 (-110), 1 unit: The Pelicans are a new team. Instead of wild fast breaks and transition three-point shots, they’re committed to playing a methodical pace and stout defense. The Jazz are one of the best defensive teams in the league, allowing only 105 ppg, #3 in the NBA. This should be a hard-fought battle in the trenches (Gobert vs. Zion, oh my) that totals just over 200 points. Look at an in-game under bet if these two teams score a lot early.
