Utah with the surprise loss last night was a hit, but we carry on with a lot of solid opportunity Saturday in the association. Check out my appearance on episode 75 of the “Game On!” podcast, available everywhere you find podcasts, where I break down a game today and for Sunday. Look for me to participate more on that pod, too. Onto the picks!

Wizards -4 (-110), 1.5 units: Wait a second, the Wizards are the favorite? Alright I mean, it is the Timberwolves, but I think they could be favored by even more. You have to love the way Washington has resurged lately. Winners of 6 of their last 7, and showing the ability to flex and assert themselves at the end of a game 2 nights ago against Denver (at Denver, even more impressive), the Wizards seem to be finding their identity lately. I don’t see Westbrook as a real leader or exceptional scorer, but he sure is an energy boost. And he’s aware that Beal is their true superstar. Less egos = more wins. Minnesota can’t catch a break– this is their 4th straight road game and they’re not playing much defense. All the momentum and firepower is behind the Wizards– take them to keep it going.

Jazz -10.5 (110), 1.5 units: I wanted to take the Magic tonight in a let-down spot for Utah but last night’s Jazz game against Miami was the one to grab. Like any elite team, the Jazz have moments of ineffectiveness and yesterday was a tough spot against a tougher opponent in Miami. The Jazz are in the middle of a 4 game road stretch, with two big games against New Orleans and Philadelphia to follow, but great teams tend to come together and rediscover their chemistry away from home. That’s especially true against inferior opponents. The Magic can play a little defense when they want to but this isn’t the spot. I think Utah wins by 20+ tonight. They’ve shown the ability to bounce back and their regression doesn’t last. Bet the Jazz with confidence.

Thunder +7, (-110), 1 unit: These are two tough teams to handicap. If Jamal Murray decides to have a 50+ point game, it’s night night for OKC. If Jokic is there putting up 25-30 points alongside a big Murray performance, it’ll be a 20+ point win for Denver. That being said, the Nuggets are still suffering from a host of injuries that really affects their defense. PJ Dozier has been upgraded to questionable and that could make a big difference in tonight’s game– Denver’s guards haven’t exactly stellar in his absence. The Thunder are getting Al Horford back after he missed Friday’s game and they played the Nuggets closely in their last matchup on Feb 12, only losing by a bucket. OKC is also on a nice little run right now, defeating San Antonio and Atlanta in their last 2 games. They’re at home tonight and about to get 4 days of rest to follow. Denver lost a heart-breaker to Washington last time out but I still think this game sets up better for the Thunder. I’ll take OKC for a light, humble, conservative (I think that’s enough adjectives) 1 unit.

Back on a roll after a sweet 4-1 night in NBA betting; that’s 52-36 overall on NBA Bets for the month of February (59%). Not too shabby. Tons of opportunity tonight, let’s get it!

John Wall over 21.5 (-109), 1 unit: Despite saying I’ll never bet on Houston ever again, this is a Rockets-based bet I like. Don’t yell at me, Twitter. The return of Victor Oladipo could be huge for the Rockets. We’ll see, but I think it’ll do wonders for John Wall. Without Oladipo, Wall has served as the sole producer for his team at times. And that can be quite a load to carry. Maybe Houston’s finally feeling the affects of the James Harden trade. Oladipo is a menacing, cerebral offensive performer and should be able to distract a good Raptors defense enough to free up John Wall’s opportunities. Wall is actually getting a reduced number for his return– I think it works in his favor. This is a good value bet.

Avoid Celtics Games: Seriously. Until they become more predictable and consistent, avoid betting on Boston games. On paper and in potential, at home, one would think the Celtics have a great chance to get off the schneid and end this ridiculous 3-game skid. One would think. The Pacers are a very solid team and are not a unit to underrate. Like the Pelicans, Hawks and Mavericks have, all of which are average teams at best, the Pacers could easily punk Boston again tonight, especially with the way Boston has been performing late in games. Don’t waste your time or money.

Jazz -6.5 (-110), 2 units: I had this game at -8 in Utah’s favor with a fully healthy Miami roster. I might’ve looked at the Heat side if that were the case, but I don’t like that Bam Adebayo has a questionable tag heading into Friday night. Even worse– it’s a knee issue. That means Bam will either be out, benched or limited, which are all bad prognoses for the Heat against a dominant Rudy Gobert down low. Even with Adebayo playing, the Heat are under-sized and vulnerable against a solid defensive unit like Utah. Add in Gobert’s ability to dominate on boards and distract defenders to find the open man and this could be a recipe for disaster. I love the way Miami has been playing but this looks like another blowout win for Utah. Bet the Jazz.

Clippers -6.5 (-105), 1.5 units: Did Memphis read my article and get fired up about their defense last night? The Grizzlies were stupid-good at guarding the Clippers Thursday. They also shot 58% from 3 point land and 54% from the field– that’s absurd. I’m not sure what happened but, barring any random “rest-time” by Kawhi or Paul George, expect the Clippers to get their revenge Friday night. I don’t think the Grizzlies match up particularly well against LAC; I think they just had a good night. Don’t let an aberration fool you.

Suns/Bulls over 226.5 (-110), 1 unit: This is a really interesting game. The Bulls are top 5 both in points per game and pace, but they’re not exceptional in offensive efficiency (14th). That tells us (the eye test shows us, too) that Chicago relies on their pace and fast breaks to produce and overwhelm teams. While the Suns can contest that to a degree, this is a good home spot for Chicago. The Bulls will be poised and comfortable on their home court and I suspect the swishes will follow. The Suns have Minnesota on deck Sunday, nothing to fear, so both teams should be totally invested Friday night. Phoenix is top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency and only the Knicks play at a slower pace. The Suns are the better team but I like Chicago to force this game into at least three 60+ point quarters, even if they’re not the victor. That should give us a 4th quarter bordering on 170-185 points, which should push this game over the total. I love 4th grade math.

Lakers -5 (-110), 2 units: Alright LAL, time to get off the schneid for real this time. This is a really good setup for the Lakers. Dennis Schröder, who is probable to return, will add much needed depth to the point guard position and he’s an exceptional dribbler and facilitator. The lack of Anthony Davis’ front court presence has really showed in the Lakers’ 4 game losing streak, but it doesn’t scare me tonight. Robert Covington and Enes Kanter are not menacing big men, so Lebron and Gasol should be able to impose their will consistently in this contest. This is the final game of a tough road stretch for Portland, who may be more excited just to return home. Damien Lillard is always a threat to score 40 or 50+ and carry his team, but as long as LAL shores up the paint, I worry not. The Lakers start a nice 3 game homestand Friday and I expect Lebron, Schröder, and others to be highly motivated and cover the number easily.

Do I regret taking the Lakers last night? Nope. A number like that on LAL is rare and if you play the right numbers in the long term you’ll come out way on top. That being said, it sure seems like LAL misses Anthony Davis. Although “the brow” doesn’t have that dog in him that builds a true leader, he might be the most talented all-around athlete in the NBA. He’s 7 feet tall, long, shoots like a point guard, and he’s an elite defender. That’s hard to replace. Onto my Friday Eve picks!

76ers -4.5 (-110), 2.5 units: With Maxi Kleber and Kristaps Porzingis both questionable, the Mavericks will have to rotate big men in and out to try and stop Joel Embiid– not a great prognosis for Dallas tonight. The Sixers play really well at home and Philadelphia is now entirely healthy. Dallas has won two in a row and this feels like a comfortable spot for them to get humbled. Play on Philadelphia with confidence. The difference is class is stark.

Nets -8.5 (-110), 1.5 units: If a bettor tells you he/she has a great angle on Orlando +8.5 tonight, they’re lying. The Nets are on a nasty 7 game winning streak, beating some of the best teams in the association by an average of 9.4 ppg. That run includes victories over the Suns, Lakers, and Clippers. And ALL were on the road. Over this stretch their offense has gained more chemistry and even their defense has improved. Unless Brooklyn has a seriously horrific let-down game tonight, they won’t win by any less than 10 points. Bet on the surging Nets.

Knicks -1.5 (-115), 1 unit: The Kings are a really bad team right now. The Knicks play better at home and just lost an opportunity to beat a Warriors team on a long road trip. New York owns the best defense in the NBA, allowing only 103.8 ppg. Sacramento has the league’s worst defense, rated last in defensive efficiency and allowing 119.9 ppg. The better defense at home in a get-right spot? Psh. Knicks all day.

Clippers -8 (-110), 1 unit: The difference in this game will be from beyond the arc. The Clippers own the best 3 point percentage in the NBA (42.4%). The Grizzlies own the worst 3 point defense in the league, allowing a league high 41.9% from the field. The Grizzlies have been losing their touch on defense and they actually play a little worse at home. I have to take LAC here, even if this number is a little high.

Pelicans/Bucks over 242.5 (-110), 1.5 units: Is Stan Van Gundy the smartest guy in the world? I don’t know. But it’s pretty obvious that if the Pelicans want to win this year, they need to do 2 things: play with a fast pace and FEED ZION. The latter tends to be a real game changer in every contest. Zion in 2021 looks leaner and has been completely unstoppable in the front court this season. The Bucks already push the pace and they’ve been very efficient at home, scoring 128 and 139 points in their last two outings. And the Pelicans might be the worst defense they’ve seen in awhile. I love this over.