Georgetown let us down and kept us from a winning day as they allowed UConn to surge in the final 10 minutes Tuesday. Sometimes you have the right angle and you still lose the bet– that’s the game we play. Overall I’m 4-5 in CBB this week; let’s get over .500 today!

Dayton -8 (-110), 1 unit: I think Dayton takes care of business in a big way today. Dayton’s pace concerns me a little, but their effectiveness of offense is considerably better than anything Saint Joseph’s can do on defense. The Hawks got a wild OT win a few days ago against LaSalle, another bottom feeder, and should be reasonably tired and unmotivated to play hard against a superior opponent today. Dayton’s slim chances of making the tournament fade away quick with a loss here, so a win by margin would be most comfortable. I’ll take the Flyers for a unit.

Seton Hall -7 (-105), 1.5 units: In every conceivable way, Butler is done. The Bulldogs are far from one of the worst teams in the country, particularly on defense, but they seem to be regressing as the season ends. Losers of now 3 straight by double digits, they haven’t been very competitive or impressive on either end of the court. In other words, there’s not a lot of positive to take from their recent performances. Seton Hall is coming off a disappointing loss at Georgetown 4 days ago and no doubt would love to build some momentum before next week’s showdown against UConn. Not to mention before tournament time. The Pirates should cover with ease today, at least that’s what all the trends suggest.

Creighton -15 (-110), 1 unit: I get the let-down angle, but Creighton is good enough to blow out DePaul even if they’re not playing at their best. This is the third game of a road stretch for the Demons. They got up recently to defeat Saint Johns and now they have to travel to Omaha to face an elite top 25 team. This is a home game for the Bluejays after impressive recent victories on a 3 game winning streak. Creighton in a blowout.

South Carolina first half +3 (-110), 1.5 units: This is a good “I don’t care spot” for Mississippi State. South Carolina is a decent enough team, although they come into Wednesday whimpering on a 5 game losing streak. The Bulldogs just got a big win over Ole Miss 4 short days ago and, without too much more to play for, could easily sleepwalk their way through this game. The Gamecocks play with pace and I think they’ll play considerably harder than Mississippi State, at least in the first half, in an attempt to get off the schneid.  Take the Gamecocks to catch the Bulldogs off guard in the first 20 minutes.

A nice 2-2 day yesterday with a slight uptick in units. Sam Houston St. played down to their competition and Evansville was competitive all game and nearly covered. Very nearly an undefeated day, but we carry on. Onto Tuesday’s picks:

Pacific -2.5 (-110), 1 unit: Haslametrics tells us that Pacific is one of the most erratic teams in college basketball, but I disagree. The Tigers routinely beat up on the low-tier teams in the West Coast conference, while they struggle and usually get beat-down by the best teams in the WCC (BYU, Loyola-Marymount, Gonzaga, etc.). Their road record sucks, but that’s also a misnomer. Every road game they’ve had has been against opponents that are just far better. It has little to do with home/away splits. This is a small number on a team that plays great defense and averages a healthy 5 points more than San Diego per game. San Diego doesn’t have the talent on offense to overcome. I’ll take Pacific.

UMass 1H +5 (-110), 1.5 units: I’ll take a shot on the UMass Minutemen today but just in the first half. We don’t know as much about UMass since they’ve played an abbreviated season but from what we do know, they’ve been impressive. They’re one of the better teams in college basketball on the road and Haslametrics has them ranked in the top 50 in defensive efficiency. UMass relies on a fast-pace of play and quick, easy buckets to gain an advantage on their opponent. Richmond has a legitimately effective and efficient offense but I think they could be a bit surprised by the Minutemen. I could see Richmond pulling away in the full game– they are the better team on paper– but UMass should be able to keep this close for the first 20 minutes.

Louisville -4.5 (-110), 1 unit: I have a feeling that Notre Dame’s loss against Syracuse has completely gutted the Irish. Notre Dame was winning by 17 points and in full control until the final 8 minutes. Then Syracuse out-scored the Irish 26-7 to end the game and steal a win. Yikes. Notre Dame’s offense was on full display until that point, but how can I not expect some negative regression tonight? Now the Irish, who’s chances of making the tournament are slipping away (TeamRankings gives them a 14% chance) are heading to Kentucky to take on a Louisville team that just got obliterated by UNC. The Cardinals should be ready for vengeance, especially on the defensive end of the ball where they’re usually well up to the task. The Cardinals are also 8-1 at home and beat their opponents by over 10 ppg on their court. Take Louisville.

Missouri -3.5 (-110), 1 unit: The first matchup between Ole Miss and Missouri is not reflective of what will happen tonight. Something was off with Mizzo on February 10th, but now two teams heading in opposite directions meet Tuesday night and I think the final score will look much different. The Tigers are significantly better on offense, they’re at home, and they’re seeking revenge. Don’t over-think this one. Bet Mizzo.

Georgetown +4.5 (-110), 1.5 units: How much will UConn’s James Bouknight play tonight? Dan Hurley admitted that they tried to rest Bouknight more against Villanova but it was a challenge considering the importance of the game. Do the Huskies think they can beat Georgetown without him? Probably not, but this is a good setup for the Hoyas. Georgetown comes into tonight winners of two straight at home and playing all-around great basketball– Seton Hall and Butler are not easy teams to knock off. Assuming Bouknight plays, he’ll be up against senior guard Jahvon Blair, which will prove a difficult and exhausting matchup fort UConn’s star. I like this setup for the Hoyas. Bet G-Town.

I had a decent 3-3 day yesterday that won us .5 units. Better than nothing! I’ve said it before and I’ll say it always– use my articles not to blindly follow my picks but to take in the research and draw your own conclusions. If you have a good grasp on your local market team or your favorite conference and you think my analysis is trash, by all means use that to your advantage. These picks are meant to provide information and insight. Let’s start the week strong!

UNC Greensboro -8.5 (-110), 1.5 units: With a little help from others and by stacking wins to end their season, UNC Greensboro still has an outside chance to make the tournament. The Spartans lead the Southern Conference and can’t avoid a slip since Furman is close behind. Today they go on the road, where they’ve had no problem winning, and face lowly Western Carolina. If there was any chance that Greensboro wouldn’t be motivated this line might have a chance to go the Catamounts’ way. The fact is there’s a much better all around team, with a defense that has limited much more impressive offenses, that will travel to Cullowhee, NC today. That doesn’t bode well for Western Carolina. This one should be a blowout and there are no trends to suggest otherwise.

Evansville +11.5 (-110), 1 unit: I think this is a let-down spot for Drake. At 2nd place in the Missouri Valley Conference and cruising to a tournament bid, the Bulldogs take on Evansville for the second straight day, easily defeating the Purple Aces 85-71 in their first contest. But the box score indicates dramatic disparity in yesterday’s game. While Evansville shot a very good 52% from the field, Drake shot a ridiculous 65%! From 3 point land, the Purple Aces shot 23%. Drake?– an insane 52%! Let’s be clear– Evansville has a very subpar defense so it’s not entirely surprising that Drake was able to take advantage. Regardless, that sort of field goal percentage would be above average without any defenders. How much does Drake care about today’s game? I’m not so sure. The Purple Aces are a solid offensive team. If Drake is less motivated, and I think they will be, Evansville should be able to stick around and make this a close contest.

Sam Houston St. -9.5 (-110), 1.5 units: The Bearkats are poised to make the NCAA Tournament, traveling to Beaumont, Texas today to take on Lamar. I could’ve sworn Lamar was someone’s name, not a college, but here we are. Back in mid-January, Sam Houston State blew the doors off Lamar. The Cardinals just couldn’t keep up, surrendering 96 points and losing by 25. I get that Lamar is on a 5-game losing streak and back at home, which is arguably a better spot for the underdog, but Sam Houston State plays with a fast tempo and can gain margin quick, winning frequently by double-digits against weaker conference opponents. The only pause for taking Sam Houston State is they could be looking over their shoulder with a big game against Abilene-Christian, the conference’s #1 team, looming just 2 days away. I just don’t see it preventing the Bearkats from taking care of business today. Lamar has lost by a margin of just over 8 ppg over their last 5 games; the Bearkats are 12-5 ATS this year. Take the favorite.

USC -4 (-110), 1.5 units: I’ll take a shot on the Trojans tonight. USC is a far better rebounding team and they are significantly taller than the Ducks on average, meaning they should dominate the front court. Although I really like Oregon’s coach Dana Altman, and I think Oregon is a good team that can make it further than pundits think, USC is in a better spot at home after a disappointing loss to Arizona. One or two more losses and the Trojans could slip out of first place in the PAC-12. Expect USC to take care of business tonight.

Washington State was really impressive yesterday, I was stunned by UVA’s loss, and Notre Dame– are you kidding me? Here’s to some much needed positive regression today!

Siena -5 (-115), 1.5 units: Neither Siena or Niagara are teams that you’d want to be cheering for this year. Although the Siena Saints lead the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference, they’re not in the same class as the best teams in the nation. I expect the Saints will suffer a quick exit from the NCAA Tournament. That being said, Siena is a better team than Niagara in every category. The Purple Eagles are bottom feeders in the MAAC and played over their heads yesterday. Look at the recap of their first matchup and you’ll see one stat that really stands out: Siena went, get ready for it, 1 of 14 (7%) in 3-point shots. Wow. Do you think they’ll shoot better today? You should. This is a short line in a revenge game for a proud team slated to make the big dance. Expect Siena to cover.

Maryland 1H only, +2.5 (-110), 1 unit and
Rutgers full game -4, 1.5 units (-110): I love the way the Terps have played as of late. Maryland has shown their best side recently, beating up on mid to low tier Big Ten teams and winning by margin in their last 3 contests. Although calling any Big Ten team mid/low-tier is a murky designation in such a tough conference, I think it helps to put things into perspective in today’s game. Rutgers is a very solid team team this year. This is a better spot, at home, for the Scarlet Knights to take care of business as they approach the tournament. This game would send Rutgers over the .500 mark in Big Ten play, too. But lately these first half bets are working for me. Maryland has a ton of momentum heading into this game and I think it carries over and surprises the Scarlet Knights in the first 20 minutes. Then I think the better team shows up. Rutgers plays really well at home, in fact they’ve won 3 straight in Jersey, and their suffocating defense should hold back Maryland in the end. The Terps are not a prolific scoring team, averaging under 70 ppg this season (and against strong defenses, they’ve struggled). Maryland might win the first half, but Rutgers will surge and cover the full game.

Penn State +10.5 (-110), 2 units: This line is way too big for me. Penn State stumbles into this game and I’m sure Iowa wins, especially with how they’ve vindicated themselves on offense the last 10 games, but Penn State is too good a team to lay this many points against. This is a number for Michigan or Ohio State, not a number an inconsistent Iowa team should receive. Penn State has a very slim chance to make the NCAA Tournament but they will absolutely need to beat the Hawkeyes today to stay alive. With a schedule KenPom ranked #1 in difficulty for most of the season, the Nittany Lions won’t be intimidated. For all of Iowa’s recent success, they’re still a very flawed team. Bet on Penn State to give it their all today and cover this line.

Lehigh/Loyola MD over 140 (-115), 1.5 units: I’m going back to well and betting the over on this game again today. Yesterday’s result was pretty shocking but lightning rarely strikes twice. These are two teams who routinely eclipse 80 points and rely on their offenses to out-pace and out-score their opponents to win. Loyola’s defense stepped up yesterday in a big way, but I can’t even measure how much negative regression they’ll be due for today. I’m betting on Lehigh’s offense to recover and produce like they usually do on Sunday.  Bet the over with more confidence.

Northwestern +6 (-110), 1 unit: This is another number that’s a little too big for me so I’m taking a light unit on the dog. If a favorite needs to cover 6 points in basketball, it means they need to win by more than two possessions. That won’t be easy for Wisconsin to do today. Northwestern is one of the weaker teams in the Big Ten but they’re capable of knocking off elite contenders when they play hard. We’ve seen that when they’ve faced Penn State, Purdue, Indiana, and in two games against Ohio State (one of which they surprisingly won). The Wildcats enter Sunday riding a disappointing 12 game losing streak. Not great. That being said, Northwestern is in a good spot returning home after 5 days rest. This is about as big of an opportunity as they’ll get to show out and put on a great performance. Wisconsin doesn’t necessarily need this win so this is a big let-down spot after a disappointing all-out effort at home in a big game against Iowa 3 days ago. The Wildcats are a great defensive team capable of slowing down an offense like Wisconsin. The Badgers are productive, but not prolific. Wildcats keep this one close.