NFC Championship Game: Packers vs. Bucs – Picks and Predictions

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January 21, 2021

The last meeting between the Packers and Bucs came in Week 6 of the regular season, and it wasn’t much of a contest. The Packers scored the first 10 points and then never scored again, watching helplessly as Tampa Bay scored 28 straight in the 2nd quarter and ended up winning 38-10. Aaron Rodgers had his worst game of the year, throwing for a 45% completion percentage, 0 TDs and 2 INTs. To make matters worse, the Packers allowed 5 sacks, 20% of what they allowed all year against their star QB (20). That’s a wild stat!

But this isn’t Week 6, the Packers are at Lambeau with perhaps the best home-field advantage in the NFL, and their offense is absolutely humming. Last week is a great example of that. Sure, Aaron Donald was limited, but the Packers offensive line had their way with the Rams’ defensive front. They easily could’ve scored 40+. That’s been the story of the Packers all year– go up early, play ball control with the run game, and make plays to stay ahead. They did that to perfection once again.

Tampa Bay has the league’s best running defense (and a legit #2 rank in DVOA), but I trust that Matt LaFleur can scheme his way through that on Sunday. The Rams ran the ball well with a like-minded coach.

I think the more significant game-script to watch for is when Tampa Bay has the ball. Ronald Jones II was a problem in Week 6, running for 113 yards on 4.9 yards per carry and 2 TDs. And that was before Tampa had Leonard Fournette. Jones II and Fournette both looked very healthy last week, running for 63 and 62 yards and splitting carries evenly (Fournette had 17, Jones II had 13). Green Bay ranks #3 in overall DVOA, but it’s hokey. They haven’t faced great offenses and they’ve played ahead in virtually every game. If Tampa Bay can have another good showing on the ground, it’ll open things up for Brady and his talented receivers. That’s a dangerous combination.

In the end, this game will come down to, you guessed it, the performance of two star quarterbacks. Aaron is having an extraordinary year, but Brady isn’t that far behind (4,633 yards, 40 TDs, 12 INTs). There’s so many competing angles for this game, but I just can’t see Aaron Rodgers blowing a chance to get to the big dance, in front of his rowdy fans, in arguably his greatest pro season yet. I think that’s even more true since he had his worst performance (and ONLY bad performance of the year) against the Bucs.

We’ll steer clear of the total since these teams are so evenly matched. What I will do, however, is middle this bet in an effort to win on both ends. Some of the sharper minds in the industry like the Tampa Bay side, but I think Green Bay gets the W.

Free Pick: Packers win (-175), 3 units
Free Pick: Bucs +3.5 (-120), 2 units

Key Trend: Teams in the conference championship with lower red zone success are 7-14 ATS, or 33%. The Packers are #1, Bucs are #7, favoring the Pack. Credit- Ralph Michaels

NBA Free Picks: January 20, 2021

By

Chris R. Farley

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January 20, 2021

A picture of Joel Embiid posting up and ready to go

Wednesday night marks the return of Joel Embiid and that’s a big deal for the Sixers. The big guy leads his team in points and rebounds and makes a huge difference on defense. The Celtics were humbled on Sunday after taking a thrashing against the Knicks, and it looks like Jason Taytum has to sit out another game. This is a great spot for the Sixers, at home, against a team that’s gotten the best of them in recent history. I think Philadelphia will take advantage. Free Pick: 76ers -5 (-110), 1.5 units

This bet is all about the surging Nets. The addition of James Harden has Brooklyn on fire and tonight they’ll get the third leg of the big three back in Kyrie Irving. The Nets are 3rd in the NBA in points per game and I imagine they’ll finish in first. Guess where the Cavs are? Dead last. Give me the Nets in a blowout. Free Pick: Nets -10 (-110), 2 units

Sacramento can’t stop anyone and it’s a problem. Their defense ranks at the very bottom of the association, allowing over 123 ppg. The good news is they can keep up with any team, averaging over 114 ppg (9th in the NBA). The Clippers’ stars had their way with Sacramento in their first matchup and I don’t see any reason why that doesn’t continue tonight. Give me the over in a game that should offer multiple 60 point quarters. Free Pick: Kings/Clippers over 230 (-110), 2 units

Podcast 5 – 21 – With Andy Molitor from The Deep Dive – NFL Conference Playoff Plays – Sports Betting

By

Kiev O'Neil

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January 20, 2021

We have a great show for you today! Andy Molitor @AndyMSFW from @betsperts and The Deep Dive podcast comes in to break down some NFL conference playoff weekend fun! First, Kiev recaps the last weekend’s NFL games. Next, Andy comes on and the guys break down some of the games that happened last week. Then, the guys get right into the NFL Conference playoffs with some leans and some plays for your weekend fun.

NFL: Buffalo vs Kansas City – Tampa Bay vs Green Bay and more!

#Sportsbetting #Gamblingtwitter #NCAA #NFL #UFC #Horseracing

Should you need a sportsbook please visit JazzSports.ag and use the promo code, “Oddsbreakers” to get a 100% sign up bonus!!!! Terms, conditions and location apply.

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UFC on ESPN 20: Chiesa vs. Magny – Picks and Predictions

By

Chris R. Farley

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January 19, 2021

Neil Magny facving off with Michael Chiesa

It’s FIGHT WEEK and I have four value picks for UFC on ESPN 20 from Fight Island. Prelims start on Wednesday at 9:00am EST and the Main Card starts at Noon EST, so set your alarms!

Douglas Silva de Andrade (+265) vs. Lerone Murphy (-350): Lerone Murphy is the heavy favorite for a reason- the young gun is one of UFC’s bright prospects and he has yet to lose a professional bout. The only issue: his opponent is one of those war-torn, wily vets. Douglas has been in 29 professional fights and he’s only been knocked out once. We’ve seen this story before. I’ll take a shot at this fight going the distance for a little plus money. Free Pick: Fight goes all 3 rounds, +125

Tyson Nam (-150) vs. Matt Schnell (+120): Tyson Nam is a dangerous power puncher who ended his last 2 fights with first and second round TKOs. Schnell is the other extreme- he’s a busy jabber and fantastic grappler. He’s also absolutely crazy to watch. He loves to scrap and fight at close range, which I think will end this fight early (with either knockout fireworks or a submission). Free Pick: No, fight does not go 2 full rounds, -115

Viviane Araujo (-325) vs. Roxanne Modafferi (+250): You never know what to expect from ol’ Roxanne. The “happy warrior” is as feisty as they come, even though she’s perpetually underrated. All she does is get upset wins or go the distance with some of the best female fighters. Viviane Araujo is the obvious favorite with a 9-2 professional record, but it’s more about her potential than what she’s actually accomplished thus far. She just hasn’t faced anyone of real merit. Don’t bet too much, but it might be worth a sprinkle on that feisty underdog. Free pick: Roxanne Modafferi wins by decision, +380

Michael Chiesa (+120) vs. Neil Magny (-150): Both of these fighters are in their primes and on 3-fight win streaks in what should be an evenly matched, entertaining battle. Neil Magny is ready to explode and wants more respect among his fans and peers. While his last 3 fights have gone the distance, he seems poised to make a statement. Michael Chiesa is a dangerous submission artist (the man loves a rear-naked choke) and could end Magny’s night early if the favorite isn’t careful. We get why the total favors a five-round fight but we see inherent value in the under. Free Pick: No, fight does not go the distance, +130. Lean: Neil Magny wins.

OKC Thunder vs. DEN Nuggets – 1.19.2021

By

Chris R. Farley

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January 19, 2021

Denver Nuggets players pictured together

This line probably doesn’t make much sense to bettors; OKC has a better overall ATS record and ATS away record, they’ve had 4 days rest, and they have a better overall record than Denver. The Thunder have played very efficient basketball as of late, but I think they’re due for some negative regression.

Look what happened to them recently against the Lakers. LAL’s bigs locked down OKC’s offense and controlled the game, with Anthony Davis, Montrezl Harrell and Lebron James scoring over half of the Lakers’ total points. OKC can hang with and beat the likes of Chicago, Orlando, and New Orleans, but they struggle against elite teams.

The Nuggets, on the other hand, are due for some positive regression. Denver scores in bunches, virtually guaranteed 110-115 points per game (they average 115.2 ppg currently and they haven’t played their best basketball). I don’t think the Thunder can keep up. The Nuggets know they need to play better defense, too. This is a sneaky line from the books and we’re seeing right through it. I’m on the Nuggets side.

Pick: Nuggets -10 (-116), 1.5 units

College Basketball Tuesday Free Play

By

Kiev O'Neil

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January 19, 2021

Syndication: Journal-Courier — Purdue guard Brandon Newman (5) guards Ohio State Duane Washington Jr. (4) during the second half of an NCAA men's basketball game, Wednesday, Dec. 16, 2020 at Mackey Arena in West Lafayette. Bkc Purdue Vs Ohio State

Purdue vs Ohio State -5 O/U 146.5

Both of these teams have been very hot winning 3 big 10 games in a row. Purdue has some size and Ohio State has finesse. During the first matchup, Ohio state was in the game for most of the duration losing 67-60. They did not shoot well at all. The Buckeye’s were 6-24 from 3 point land and 47% from 2 while Purdue was 57% from 2 and 30% from behind the arc. I think that the script changes this game looking at how these teams have performed at home and on the road. Ohio State averages 80.4 points per game at home while Purdue averages only 68.2 points on the road. I know some of these home games include easier teams for Ohio State but they scored over 80 in every big 10 home game thus far. Purdue’s best away victory on the road was probably against a struggling Michigan State team and they only needed 55 to win that game. Purdue has had some stinkers on the road vs Miami, Rutgers and Iowa. I think Ohio State wins by some margin here.

Ohio State -5 – 2 star premium shared play

College Basketball Picks- 1.19.2021

By

Chris R. Farley

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January 19, 2021

Michigan player showing excitement and fired up

Free Pick: UNC Wilmington -1.5 (-110), 1.5 units: Call me crazy but I’m going back to the well and putting another bet on UNC Wilmington to cover today’s spread. It’s hard for any team to win back-to-back games against a superior team, let alone a team that’s looked so much better on offense than what they showed in the first contest. Give me UNCW in a revenge game for all the same reasons I wrote about in my post yesterday. The Seahawks should be warmed up and ready to rock after that big layover.

Free Pick: Michigan -10 (-115), 2 units: This has all the ingredients for a major beatdown. Showered with national praise after they blew out Wisconsin, Michigan was embarrassed by the Gophers last weekend. The #7 team in the country was a turnover machine against Minnesota, giving up the ball 20 times, nearly double their average per game. Maryland is one of the worst teams in the nation in forcing turnovers, and tonight they’ll be without one of their best defenders in Liam Robbins. The Terrapins can play effective small-ball, but their bench is shallow and they struggle against bigs. Michigan’s freshman star Hunter Dickinson, who was unstoppable last time against the Terps, will be highly motivated after his abysmal performance last weekend, too. Give me the Wolverines in a great retribution spot. Key Trends: Michigan outscores their opponents by an average of 17.3 points at home. Michigan is also 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Brooklyn Nets – 1.18.2021

By

Chris R. Farley

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January 18, 2021

A picture of NBA Superstars and Nets' teammates James Harden and Kevin Durant

The MLK Day NBA slate features a showcase matchup between the two favorites to win the Eastern Conference. The Nets come into this contest on fire, albeit controversially, but the addition of James Harden has only added more reason to believe in Brooklyn. How are teams going to stop that dynamic duo? If/when Kyrie returns, the Nets will have 3 clutch superstars on offense. Personally I don’t believe they’re championship material, but it’ll be a great soap opera to watch and the Nets are undoubtedly a juggernaut offense.

The Bucks are still the Bucks. They lead the Eastern Conference with a record of 9-4 and Giannis Antetokounmpo continues his dominance in the regular season. Their defense is stout, but the Nets are a different animal.

Both of these squads should be poised to entertain in the primetime TNT slot. I’ll take a shot at the first half instead of the full game total, since these rivalry games tend to get scrappy in the 4th quarter, which can inhibit scoring.

Free Pick: First Half Total over 117 (-110), 1.2 units

Key Facts: The Nets are #1 in ppg, the Bucks are #6 in ppg, and they both play at a top 6 pace.

UNC Wilmington vs. Towson – 1.18.2021

By

Chris R. Farley

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January 18, 2021

An image of a UNC Wilmington basketball player leading his team down the court.

This spot may favor Towson as they travel back home desperate for a win after starting 1-5 this season. The UNC Wilmington Seahawks haven’t played in over 3 weeks, either. I just think it’s a really bad matchup for the Tigers.

UNC Wilmington is averaging over 80 ppg and Towson has one of the worst defenses in the country. In fact, the Tigers have yet to keep a team under 70 points. Towson’s offense has serious struggles, too, averaging just 67 ppg (270th in the country). The Seahawks’ long layoff is probably the reason why the line is so small, but UNCW is clearly the better team.

Take a look at Towson in the first half, but I don’t think the Tigers’ inept offense can keep up with the Seahawks down the stretch.

Free Pick: UNC Wilmington -2 (-115), 1.5 Units

Key Trend: Towson is 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games.

Free Pick: Connor McGregor vs. Dustin Poirier 2 – UFC 257

By

Chris R. Farley

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January 17, 2021

Connor McGregor and Dustin Poirier, side by side

Back in 2014, these two octagon warriors battled without much drama. McGregor dropped Dustin in less than 2 minutes, avoiding Dustin’s patented uppercut and overwhelming him with high-arching kicks and straight punches. It was a dominant performance, but that was before Connor blew up to superstardom and Dustin was still green. On Saturday night (Sunday in Abu Dhabi), the two meet again and a lot has changed. I think it’ll make for a much more competitive fight.

McGregor made his UFC return last January, making quick work of Donald Cerrone with another first round TKO. The Irishman’s talent is sometimes overshadowed by his fame, but make no mistake about it- McGregor is one of the greatest strikers in MMA history. Dustin knows that, and Dustin is the main reason why I think this fight goes over 2 rounds.

Dustin Poirier is a much different fighter now. Before losing to Khabib, who’s arguably the greatest UFC fighter of all time (or at least top 3), Poirier was on a 4 fight win streak, knocking off one big name after another: Pettis, Gaethje, Alvarez, Holloway, and he almost caught Khabib, too. In his last fight, Poirier went the distance with Dan Hooker, another striking specialist, and won by decision. Anyone who’s watched Poirier the past few years knows that his boxing is much improved. He has great power, he’s incredibly precise, landing nearly 50% of his punches, and his defense is significantly better. He can also take a serious beating, something he’s become a bit famous for.

Although Connor fights aggressively by nature, we think he’ll enter this fight with more respect (and more patience) for Dustin. That’s probably a wise move. Poirier will be highly motivated but he’ll have to be guarded, too, unless he wants another repeat of 2014. I think it’ll mean a calculated, strike-for-strike contest that could very well go the distance.

Pick: Over 2.5 rounds (+130), 2 units

Note: In a recent interview with ESPN’s Ariel Helwani, McGregor expressed respect for Dustin and said that he hopes the fight goes all five rounds. Not a bad sign for this bet!