After the ass kicking I got in CBB yesterday, there’s only room for positive regression today. Here are my picks for a huge Saturday slate of college hoops:

Indiana -6 (-105), 1 unit: I think Michigan State is done. The game against Purdue was the spot and Tom Izzo knew it, and somehow the Spartans still couldn’t muster the performance they needed. I don’t love this number on an Indiana team that’s way too up and down, but I like it as a fade of Michigan State. The Spartans have to pick themselves up off the ground and travel to Bloomington Saturday at noon, knowing their chances of making the tournament are slim to none. With much less to play for, I like Michigan State to buckle once again and the Hoosiers to gain some rare margin against a Big Ten team. I have this game ending 73-65, right over the number.

UConn 1H +3.5 (-110), 1.5 units: I would be on UConn’s side for the full game if it wasn’t for Villanova’s big loss last weekend. The Wildcats got humbled in a big way against conference foe Creighton a week ago and I expect they’ll be ready to assert themselves on the Huskies. The Huskies won’t be any less motivated, though. UConn has a new energy since Bouknight’s return. Playing over their head and nearly perfect basketball against Xavier without their star, James Bouknight returned to help UConn avenge their loss against Providence, scoring 18 points as UConn dominated the Friars in the second half and cruised to a win. This is a UConn team with real momentum and I think some of that carries over into the first part of this contest. If I had a lean on the full game, my bet would be on Villanova to flex in the second half and cover the number. Nova’s head coach Jay Wright is one of the more adaptive, intelligent coaches in the game. Villanova will be ready.

Loyola (MD)/Lehigh over 141 (-110), 1.5 units: Sometimes this shit isn’t rocket science. Both of these teams are really struggling on defense, and it seems both teams can only win when they can out-score their opponent. I think Loyola and Lehigh are pretty evenly matched, and maybe this total is lower because the books are expecting some positive regression from these teams on defense. I’m not. The winner will be the team who gets to 80 points. With a line around 4.5, that should give us an easy over.

Notre Dame wins (+135), 1 unit: Upset alert! Okay, this isn’t a huge upset, but I really like the Notre Dame side on Saturday. The Irish have quietly won 6 of their last 8 games and they haven’t beaten slouches either. Big wins against Miami, Duke, and Pittsburgh have shown how effective Notre Dame’s offense can be. The Irish will have to play with a concerted effort against Syracuse on the defensive end, but this line is telling us how close and competitive this game should be. If it’s as close as the books predict, than I love a surging Notre Dame offense to sustain momentum are overtake the Orangemen. They’ve done it plenty before.

Florida State -5.5 (-110), 2 units: I believe in Florida State. One of my favorite value bets to win it all, I really like how this team looks when they’re firing on all cylinders. And I think they’re still pretty underrated. With bigs that can shut down high percentage shots and get plenty of their own, great perimeter shooters, and not a lot of ego, the Seminoles are a balanced and well-coached unit. I realize this spot favors the Pittsburgh side. The Panthers are on a 3 game losing streak and at home, while Florida State just had their biggest win of the year against UVA last Monday and they’ve played noticeably worse on the road. That’s also why this number is light. On a neutral floor, the Seminoles would be favored by 10+, meaning this is a buy-low opportunity. Florida State is aware of their vulnerabilities this deep into the season and I think they take care of business Saturday. Take the Seminoles.

Stanford -5 (-110), 2 units: I think this one could get ugly, especially if Washington State star Isaac Bonton sits out another game. If he does play this might be a lighter bet for me, but I still like the Cardinal to cover this number. Stanford is still on the outside looking in on the NCAA Tournament but they have a solid chance of making it if they rack up some wins. While both teams have very solid defenses, nothing should scare you about the Washington State offense. The Cardinal stifle opponents and play with pace that can quickly overwhelm opponents. This is just a good matchup for Stanford, in a spot where they should be supremely motivated. Take the favorite.

Louisville +5.5 (-110), 1 unit: This is a much better spot for North Carolina but I’m going to fade the narrative and go with the Cardinals Saturday. Louisville is coming into this game off a 3 week pause. I hate that for them and I usually hate betting on a team off that sort of layoff. UNC bested Northeastern with ease 3 days ago, a team that faced a very similar situation to Louisville. The Tar Heels will probably win, but I think the Cardinals can keep pace long enough to find momentum and stay in this game. At their worst, Louisville can get trounced. Embarrassing losses to Wisconsin and Florida State put that on full display. But the Cardinals are typically a great defensive unit and at their best, have stifled offenses like Duke and Virginia Tech. If Louisville was overly dependent on their offense I wouldn’t like this angle, but I think they’ll matchup well against the Tar Heels. North Carolina is a bit overrated these days on a nice little stretch where they’ve won 5 of their last 7. If they walk into this game expecting to win, they may be in for a shock. I’m on the dog to bark harder than expected.

Virginia -2 (-115), 2.5 units: Poor Duke keeps finding themselves in these bad spots. The Blue Devils get a home game against big boy UVA towards the end of the big Saturday slate. This line is giving Duke some respect, which I appreciate, but it should keep climbing as we get close to game-time. Jalen Johnson opting out could be a reason for motivation, but it would take a herculean team effort to overcome a UVA team coming off a big loss last week to Florida State. I would hate going against the Cavaliers after such a humbling. I’m taking UVA without refrain, and you should too.

I had a funny feeling about Houston yesterday but I went with my brain instead of my gut– it’s always interesting to me how often my gut seems to know better (just read Malcolm Gladwell’s “Blink,” turns out our gut feelings are based on a ton of evidence). Either way, we had a great Thursday night and went 3-1 in college hoops. Let’s keep the momentum going! Here are my Friday picks:

Vermont -3 (-110), 1 unit: This is the second game of a double-header between the 1st and 2nd placed teams in the American East Conference so one unit feels appropriate. Vermont bested UMBC 80-71 last night in a game that was pretty evenly matched. The Catamounts (what a name) shot 54.7% from the field, which is awfully impressive, while the Retrievers shot a solid 44.8%. Vermont had more turnovers and less second-chance opportunities than UMBC, but they still came away with the win (and rather easily at that). One intangible I like to look at, and I wish there was more data on it, is how a game starts and ends. Looking at the game flow chart on ESPN’s summary, the Catamounts started strong and ended strong, which is usually a great indicator of how much control a team has over a given matchup. There’s a short period of time in the middle where each team was scoring at about the same pace, but Vermont imposed their will when the game mattered most. The Catamounts are simply a better all-around unit and Haslametrics rates them as having some of the best positive momentum in the country right now. I see Vermont controlling this game again, without much issue.

Wright State -8.5 (-110), 1.5 units: Northern Kentucky has won 7 of their last 8 games, but I think it’s pretty phony. Let’s look at who they defeated: Conference bottom feeder Robert Morris, UIC, Green Bay, and Milwaukee. Can you feel how impressed I am? Yea, me neither. To make it even less impressive, the Northern Kentucky Norse (these names, my goodness) won most of those games by very little margin. And now here comes big brother Wright State. The first game of a double-header, I wouldn’t be surprised if Wright State plays down to their competition in one of these contests. Make no mistake about it, though– the Raiders are a better team on all sides of the ball and shouldn’t have much issue creating distance from the Norse. This is a big upgrade in competition for Northern Kentucky. If they get pounded today like I expect, look to play back on the underdog at a bigger number if it’s available tomorrow.

Winthrop -9 (-110), 1.5 units: Winthrop took on High Point last night in a surprisingly contentious game. The contest went back and forth through nearly 40 minutes of play. Halfway through the 2nd half, High Point owned a solid 5 point lead over the Big South Conference leader. Then the Eagles turned it on. In a blink, Winthrop suddenly took the lead and didn’t allow the Panthers to assert themselves any longer. I love that momentum going into the tonight. Winthrop plays at one of the quickest tempos in all of college basketball and it showed in the final 10 minutes Thursday. High Point played honorably yesterday–give them credit– but that’s probably their best shot against a Winthrop team that’s far more effective on both sides of the ball. After a team gives it their all like High point did yesterday, a loss like that can be really humbling and deflating. Winthrop runs away with this one today.

Utah State +1.5 (-115), 2 units: Boise State is a solid all around team, and that’s probably why they lead the Mountain West Conference, but this is a double-header revenge spot I like. Boise State plays with a fast pace and yesterday they asserted themselves on the Aggies, pulling away in the final minutes. I expect a different result tonight. Utah State sports one of the best defenses in the nation. They have a ton of pride in their ability to stifle opponents, allowing only 62.2 ppg this year. Yesterday the Broncos shot 44% from the field and 35% from beyond the arc. This was the biggest different in the first game. The Aggies only shot an abysmal 19% from 3 point land, an area where they’re not particularly apt anyway. I expect Utah State to learn from last night’s mistakes and force feed the ball inside. That style fits their pace and expertise. The Aggies have looked really shitty in some spots this year and very impressive in others– the possibility for significant positive regression on both sides of the ball has me feeling confident that they’ll pull out one of those impressive performances tonight. Take the Aggies.

Houston -7.5 (-110), 1.5 units: I really tried to look for angles to support Wichita State here, but I just don’t see it happening. Houston is fantastic at controlling the tempo of the game, Wichita State is not a great field goal shooting team and with the way Houston is constantly pestering their opponents on defense, Wichita State will quickly feel the pressure of having to make shots early and often. Although a good overall team, these aren’t the Shockers of the past. Even if they play their best ball of the year, I can’t step in front of Houston and I can’t see Wichita State playing effective enough to make this a game. The Cougars are on a 7-1 ATS run; this doesn’t feel like the spot where that’s halted. This line is wrong– Houston wins by 10+.

Iowa/Wisconsin 1H under 68.5 (-110), 2 units +
Full Game under 145.5 (-110), 1 unit: If I had to back any team here, it would be Wisconsin. This line keeps dropping and I’m seeing it as a pick-em at a few books. That tells me the sharps love the Badgers and I can’t disagree– how could Wisconsin not be furiously motivated heading into this game after blowing that huge lead to Michigan on Sunday? This is an automatic redemption spot. I’ve read some analyses where bettors expect Luka Garza to perform better tonight and think that’s more reason to bet on Iowa, but I disagree. What does it say about the Hawkeyes when Garza performs at his worst and they blow a team out and arguably play one of their most complete games? Do they feed Garza too much? Is there such a thing? Regardless, my favorite play here is the under. Wisconsin still owns what we think is the best defense in the Big Ten, surrendering just under 63 ppg. Lately the Hawkeyes have improved on defense too, giving up only 63.7 ppg in their last 3 outings. This should be a contentious back and forth battle where both defenses will try to disrupt the other team’s rhythm. Nerves will be high, and I do think Iowa’s force-feeding of Garza may actually stifle the energy of Iowa’s offense. To prevent another agonizing free-throw competition at game’s end, I’m on the under in the first half for 2 units and the full game for a humbler 1 unit.

Jacksonville State 1H +7 (-110), 2 units: I’ve been burned a lot by Belmont, attempting to fade them against weaker in-conference opponents when I thought it was a good spot for their rival. That being said, I think this spot is about as good as it gets, at least in the first half. Belmont is a really good team and clearly the class of the Ohio Valley. Though when they’ve faced above average opponents, they tend to lean on second half momentum to gain the advantage. Look at their games this year against Austin-Peay, Murray State twice, and oh yes– their first game against Jacksonville State. In all of those contests, the Bruins turned it on in the last 20 minutes to create margin. In the first halves they were either losing or winning by only 1-3 points. This game sets up just like that, but I like it even better since the Gamecocks are in a prime revenge spot. The Bruins bested them by 7 points in mid-January on their home court. Not exactly a blowout. Jacksonville State isn’t in the same class as Belmont overall but they can put up points. Highly motivated and looking for redemption, expect the Gamecocks to put out maximum effort here. They could get deflated in the second half, as many teams do against Belmont, so we’ll fade taking the dog at +12 for the game, though I do lean to that side as well.