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Free Pick: TB Buccaneers vs. NO Saints – Jan 17, 2021

By
Chris R. Farley
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The final game of the Divisional Round is the third meeting between the Bucs and Saints as Tom Brady looks to recreate magic and move one step closer to the big prize. The Bucs ended their season on a high, taking care of business by winning 4 straight games before defeating Washington last weekend. The Saints, although plagued with injuries all year, claimed the #2 seed in the NFC and knocked off the Bears with ease on Wildcard weekend. In their first two meetings, the Saints beat the Bucs convincingly (38-3, 34-23). Talking heads said all week that it’s hard to beat a team 3 times in a row, but unfortunately there’s no data to support that claim. I think the Saints do it again on Sunday.

The Saints big 3 on offense- Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas- have all played together in only 3 games this year: last week, and the two games against the Bucs. The Bucs have a top 10 defense and add Devin White, who led their team with 140 tackles. On paper it looks like an even matchup, but the real advantage is on the other side of the ball. The Saints defensive line absolutely dominated the line of attack and Tampa’s WRs couldn’t get open in the first 2 contests. Sometimes teams just match up really well against other teams. Then again that’s nothing new for New Orleans, who may have the deepest roster in the NFL.

The real talent disparity here is on the sidelines. Sean Payton is arguably the most creative offensive mind in football (don’t read this, Andy Reid). His team plays disciplined, motivated, and in-sync. Bruce Arians gets a lot of love from the media, and we’re pretty sure he’d be a great time at your local dive bar, but he’s not an exceptional schemer or motivator. Tom Brady can only do so much. Once Tom-terrific gets rattled, and he will, this one could get ugly. Bet on the Saints with confidence!

Pick: Saints -3 (-115), 2 units

Key Trend: Teams that allowed 10 points or less in their last playoff game are 52-31-2, 63% ATS (New Orleans). -Credit Ralph Michaels

Free Pick: LA Rams vs. GB Packers – Jan 16, 2021

By
Chris R. Farley
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A picture of Aaron Rodgers and Aaron Donald

 

It’s the battle of Aarons Saturday as Aaron Donald and the Rams’ #1 defense head to Lambeau Field to take on Aaron Rodgers and the high-powered Packers for our first Divisional Round playoff contest. The Rams defense leads the league in a ton of categories, including yards allowed, points allowed, passing yards allowed, and first downs allowed. Meanwhile, the Green Bay offense leads the league in a bunch of offensive categories, including points per game, points per drive, passing TDs, and fewest turnovers. What a conundrum! This should lead to an entertaining game that goes back and forth as the sun sets in Wisconsin, but we favor the Packers and the far better QB.

Aaron Rodgers isn’t having a good year; he’s having a phenomenal year. The two-time MVP has never looked better, throwing for 4299 yards, an over 70% completion percentage, 48 TDs and only 5 INTs. Even in the modern NFL, those are insane stats. He’s also getting the ball out significantly quicker than last year (around 2.5 seconds per pass) and throwing receivers open at eye-popping angles like the Aaron of old. I respect Jalen Ramsey and what he’s done all year- he’s undeniably the NFL’s best cornerback, shutting down the likes of D.K. Metcalf (twice), Stefan Diggs, DeAndre Hopkins, and Mike Evans- but the connection between Rodgers and Devante Adams is something special. We know Jared Goff will be starting for LAR, and that gives us even more reason to fade the Rams. Coach Sean McVay is a brilliant schemer, but it’s hard to back an average QB against a Packers offense that, although challenged today, should be able to still put up plenty of points. Goff is inconsistent and can freeze under pressure; how will the Rams keep up? I don’t think they can, especially not with 8,000 Green Bay screaming fans back at Lambeau. The Packers defense will make plenty of stops, as they have all season, and Rodgers will be even more fired up with a home crowd. This doesn’t bode well for LAR. Packers will pull away in the fourth quarter.

Pick: Packers -6.5, 2 units

Key Trend: Playoff teams that lost the conference championship the year prior are 33-15 ATS, and 21-3 ATS when facing an opponent who just won by double digits (GB fits both these categories). Credit- Ralph Michaels

NFL Divisional Playoff Weekend Plays – Sports Wagering

By
Kiev O'Neil
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LA Rams vs Green Bay -6.5 ish O/U 45.5
This should be a very interesting game as it has the lowest total of the four and you have Matt LaFleur who was the squire and offensive coordinator under Sean McVey a few years back at the Rams.  The old teacher vs Student backstory.   LaFleur learned a lot about offense under McVey and even earlier under then offensive coordinator Kyle Shannahan when he was Matt Ryans QB coach in 2016.  Let’s look at the lines.  What this total is telling you is that the Rams defense will show up.   When this happens, the rule of thumb is to lean towards the dog.  Now this rule certainly has it’s exceptions but not during playoff time.   Each of these 2 teams have 1 major weakness.  Green Bay can’t stop the run that well allowing 4.5 rushing yards per attempt.  They haven’t had to worry about this issue so much due to the fact that they were almost always leading by halftime and teams had to throw the ball.   I think that it is imperative that Green Bay gets the lead due to this issue.  The weakness that the Rams have is that they tend to not be able to score much on offense when teams are on to their deceptive play calling.   Sean McVey is a master of misdirection but playin against Matt LaFeur, who knows him quite well, is probably more of a detriment to his offense in Green Bay.  Both of these teams have a net +.7 yards per play so I do not see any advantage for there for either team but I think there is an advantage for the rams when you look at strength of schedule.  The Rams schedule ranks 9th in overall strength and the Packers rank 31st.  Green Bay had it easy facing the Lions, Vikings and the Bears all twice in that bad NFC North division.   I do not have the Packers 5 points better than the Rams on a neutral field.  Maybe more like 2 points.  So a 4.5 point spread is what I think that the line should be.  My Algorithm has the Packers winning 26 to 22.5 so a -3.5 point spread.   Due to this I think the Rams have a shot at keeping this game close and I have a slight lean to the over.   Taking the points but I think that Green Bay will win the game.   Wait until the last minute to get the best line.
LA Rams +7 – 2.5 star premium and sprinkle
Baltimore vs Buffalo -2.5 O/U 50
  • This is quite the interesting matchup.  Rushing team vs Passing team.
  • Buffalo has been playing great down the stretch but they did have some problems with the colts last week and that game had some bad coaching decision on both ends.  The Colts should have kicked field goals when they had the chance in the first half and the Bills let the Colts back into the game towards the end with some poor play calling from McDermott when Josh Allen kept throwing the ball and had a 23 yard fumble that the Bills were fortunate to get back.
  • The Ravens have been playing well down the stretch as well and they had a nice win last week vs the Titans.   If you would have told me they would only score 20 points vs that bad Titans defense, then I would have thought Tennessee would have won outright.
  • The Book is out on Lamar Jackson and it is to contain him in the pocket and keep him from getting chunk yards running the football down and making him be a pocket passer but that’s easier said that done.   The Titans could not do that well with Lamar racking up 136 yards rushing.
  • The Bills this year had issues facing QBs that can run the ball themselves against Mahomes and Kyler Murray but they at least were able to shut Cam Newton down.
  • At the same time, Josh Allen is a pretty mobile QB and has over 400 rushing yards this year.  The Ravens themselves struggled against guys like Cam Newton and Patrick Mahomes this year.
  • The Ravens Strength is their defense and rushing the ball being the top rushing team by far at 194 rushing yards per game.   They are however dead last in 100 passing yards per game.  The good news for the Ravens is that Buffalo is bad on stopping the run allowing 4.7 per rush.
  • Buffalo’s strength is the pass at 3rd best in the league 290 passing yards per game.  The Ravens are pretty good against the pass but they haven’t performed well against the best of the best and their stregth of schedule ranks only 29th on Sagarin.
  • I have these 2 teams equal in my power ratings so I think if you like the Bills side a little with the home field, grabbing it under the key number of 3 makes sense.   I think whomever plays the QB position best will win this game and that might mean that Josh Allen will have to run the ball a bit himself.
  • Both teams are a positive .4 yards per play so that is pretty equal.
  • If Buffalo wants to win this game, they need to cheat up to stop the run completely and make Lamar throw the ball.   Take away the middle of the field and play some man defense.  Make Lamar throw the ball to the sidelines.  If they lose to that then tip your cap.  Also, don’t go to dime coverage if you are winning because the Ravens will capitalize on chunk yards vs that.
  • If the Ravens want to win, then they need to pound the ball well and set up the pass.  Try and push the defensive ends outside so lamar can run on pass plays.  He isn’t a typical QB rush type of QB.
  • My Algorithm has the game 28.5 to 26 meaning the spread is -2.75 for that so rather than looking at the side, I think the over is in play being that my total is 54.5
  • Last week the Baltimore/Tennessee over was 54.5 and the Indianapolis/Buffalo was 51.5 so I do not see why it went down this much when the Ravens D is although very good, they did have such an easy schedule this year in that AFC North.  Also, last week that Buffalo game had multiple opportunities to go over the 51 instead of pushing.

Lean Buffalo but Take the Over 50 – 3 star premium shared

Tampa Bay vs New Orleans -3 O/U 52 –

This is the 3rd meeting this year between these teams and you know how the saying goes.  3rd time is the charm right?   WRONG!  Now Tampa bay is a solid team but I really think that they took a big hit when run stopper Vita Vea got hurt during the year.  Tampa has been hot the past 5 weeks or so scoring over 25 points per game but we have to remember that it was against the Vikings, Lions, Washington and Atlanta Twice.   The Bucs really only had one great performance vs a good team and that was vs the Packers at home way back on October 18th.  That was their only game that they won against an over .500 team due to losses vs the Rams, the Saints twice, Kansas City and the Bears.   Tampa is pretty good against the run but weak against the pass as you saw the 3rd string quarterback for Washington bang them up quite a bit.   Tampa is a nice +.9 yards per play but the Saints are +.7 and didn’t have Drew Breese for 3 games or so.  My power ratings has the Saints 1.25 points better on a neutral field and there will be some fans at this game so I think that this line is short by a half point or so.   My Algorithm has this game Saints 25.5 to 24.5 but remember that it factors in the time that Taysom Hill was quarterback.  The Saints beat this team by double digits twice this year and I think I can play it at the 3.

Saints -3 – 2 star premium shared play

ATS.IO Podcast

By
Kiev O'Neil
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Here is an industry leading podcast that has taught so many people the best practices of handicapping and sports betting for over the past 8 years.   In this episode, Adam Burke brings on Kiev O’Neil to discuss the NFL Divisional Playoffs!  Click here:

 

College Basketball Free Plays Jan 15 – Jan 17th

By
Kiev O'Neil
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Friday:

Purdue Ft Wayne vs UW Milwaukee -3 – O/U 145

This is a nice little Horizon league matchup where you could find some value on the home team.  Purdue Fort Wayne is a fine little team that plays pretty fast at 16.2 second2 per possession and and at a 72.8 adjusted tempo.  The Mastodons have a nice effective FG% at 59% but they haven’t played anybody out of their league.  They have a nice player in Jaylon Pipkins who transferred from Loyola Chicago and he is a good compliment to their best player Jarred Godfrey but the rest of the team is a little suspect.   The Big problem with Purdue Fort Wayne is that they don’t play defense and they turn the ball over.  Purdue Fort Wayne ranks 287th on Kenpom in defensive efficiency and 339th in turnover rate.  That is not a good recipe on the road facing a Milwaukee team that ranks 22nd in steal percentage and 2nd in defense within the conference.    UW Milwaukee is a nice 6-1 ATS but what is even more impressive to me is that they are +7.6 ATS margin which means that the books and Kenpom hasn’t caught up to them yet.  I think there is going to be a lot of points scored this game and I also think that the turnovers is going to sink Fort Wayne.  I will take both the Panthers and the Over.

UW Milwaukee -3 ( I like it to -4) – 2 star premium shared and over 145 (I like it to 148) – 2 star premium shared

Saturday:

Ohio State vs Illinois -6.5 O/U 146 – 

This is a great matchup here in the big 10.   Ohio State is looking like a team that will be dancing in a few months with nice wins by double digits vs Rutgers twice and the 2 bad teams in the big 10 in Northwestern and Nebraska.  Illinois has been a very up a down team and they are coming off of a bad loss against Maryland.   They should be better than what they are right now with all of that Talent back and sites like Bart Torvik that still having them in the top 10 are correct in that assessment.   Illinois has the better defense ranking 19th in efficiency while Ohio State ranks 58th.  Advantage Illinois.  Besides defense, another thing that I want to look at is who will be hitting the shots in this matchup.   Illinois ranks 11th at 59% effective FG percentage while Ohio State ranks 134th.  After that Maryland loss, Illinois gave the game away and only shot 41% from the field when they average 51%.    I like the bounce back spot here.   The important thing for me in this handicap is strength of schedule when Illinois has already played Baylor, Duke and the better big 10 teams while the Buckeye’s toughest team that they played was UCLA.

Illinois -6.5 – 2.5 star premium play

Virginia vs Clemson -4 O/U 114 – Longest pissing match – Lean under but will take the under at 118 or better if it gets there.

Michigan vs Minnesota +5.5 O/U 146 – 

  • The Gophers played Michigan a few weeks back and lost by 25 points.
  • Michigan is the best big 10 ATS team at 9-2.  They shocked Wisconsin last game and really celebrated it.
  • Michigan has been beating teams by margin and their closest game was at home vs Penn State where they one by 4 points?
  • Can we get that kind of game again?
  • Minnesota is a much better home team than an away team is something that we should focus on.
  • The Gophers are 16-8-1 ATS at home since 2019.
  • Michigan has only had 2 away games vs Nebraska and Maryland
  • Michigan is 6-7 ATS as an away team since 2019.
  • Wait on this line as long as possible and then take it after the Michigan Backers pump it up.

Minnesota +5.5 or better – 1.5 star premium and sprinkle

Sunday:

Iowa vs Northwestern +10 O/U 159

Iowa is getting a nicely earned week off after the Michigan State covid issues and how sweet it is that they get to stay home.  Northwestern has been a very strange team dropping 4 Big 10 games in a row after winning 3 in a row.  The big thing that Northwestern does differently from last year is that they really picked up the pace.  In 2019/20 they ranked 211th in seconds per possession at 17.6 to 31st in the league at 15.5.   Their defense has been quite bad giving up over 80 points in each of those games ranking 12th in the big ten in defensive efficiency.  Iowa on the other hand plays lighting fast and the only slow the game down at the end if they are blowing out a team.   They rank 1st tied with Gonzaga in offensive adjusted efficiency at 123.5   This means 1.235 points per possession.  Iowa’s defense on the other hand ranks a modest 7th in the Big 10.   I think that this Wildcat team will be playing desperate and will be putting up some points.  I have this game Iowa 88 to 76 winning by 12 points so if you can find a 9.5 make sure you take it but right now I want to play the over for both the half and the full game.  I like it up to 159.   Wait till mid morning to hit this.

Iowa/Northwestern 1st half over 75 – 2 star premium shared play.   Full game over 159 – 1 star premium shared and Iowa team total over 81.5 (-120) – 2 star premium shared play

 

 

Podcast 4 – 21 – With ESPN’s David Bearman – NFL Divisional Playoffs and College Basketball – Jan 15th to Jan 17th Plays – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-
The OddsBreakers Sports Betting Podcast
The OddsBreakers All Rights Reserved

We have a fantastic show for you today!  David Bearman, the deputy editor of sports betting from ESPN is back @DBearmanESPN to break down the NFL Divisional round of the playoffs!  First, Kiev talks about some college basketball betting spots based on shooting percentage, opponent free throw and 3 point percentage and overall strength of schedule.  Then, David comes on to discuss some playoffs!   The guys talk about the Miami Dolphins and if it makes sense to draft Devonte Smith at the number 3 spot.  Then, David talks about ESPNs exciting new show for live sports betting called “between the lines.”  Next, the guys get into the big NFL games of the weekend.  After that, Kiev talks about some College Basketball plays for this weekend as well.  Should you need any games broken down for next week, please tweet us @TheOddsBreakers.  Have a wonderful weekend!

NFL:  LA Rams vs Green Bay – Tampa Bay vs New Orleans and more!

NCAA Basketball: Ohio State vs Illinois – Michigan vs Minnesota and more!

#Sportsbetting #Gamblingtwitter #NCAA #NFL #UFC #Horseracing

Should you need a sportsbook please visit betonline.ag and use the promo code, “Odds200” to get a 200% sign up bonus!!!!  Terms, conditions and location apply.

theoddsbreakers.com

For only 24.99 a month become an ODDSBREAKER’S MEMBER and gain access to all premium picks BEFORE the line moves please visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop!

Podcast 3 – 21 – With Bryan Leonard from Wagertalk – NFL Divisional Playoff Plays – Sharp Movements – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

We have a great show for you today!  Bryan Leonard @Bleonardsports from Wagertalk.com comes on to break down some NFL divisional playoff weekend plays and more!  First, Kiev recaps the College Football National Championship.  What went right and wrong, what made sense and didn’t.  Then, Kiev addresses a listener question and talks about when to press a game and when to middle a bet.  Next, Bryan comes on and the guys break down the weekend and get into come college basketball handicapping methods.   Then, the guys get right into the NFL playoffs with some leans and some plays for your weekend agenda.  Finally, Kiev gets into sharp line movements for the weekend in the NFL.

NFL:  Baltimore vs Buffalo – Cleveland vs Kansas City and more!

#Sportsbetting #Gamblingtwitter #NCAA #NFL #UFC #Horseracing

Should you need a sportsbook please visit JazzSports.ag and use the promo code, “Oddsbreakers” to get a 100% sign up bonus!!!!  Terms, conditions and location apply.

theoddsbreakers.com

For only 24.99 a month become an ODDSBREAKER’S MEMBER and gain access to all premium picks BEFORE the line moves please visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop!

College Basketball Tuesday 2-Pack – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
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Wisconsin vs Michigan -3.5 O/U 134

These 2 teams I think are both a bit over-rated ranking 5 and 7 on Kenpom but to be honest, there isn’t a lot of flawed teams on Kenpom.   Wisconsin is ranked higher than Michigan on Kenpom but the market seems to like Michigan for a few reasons.  A) They are at home and B) They are undefeated.   I think the important question to ask is who have they played?   As a matter of fact, Michigan hasn’t played a top 31 team this whole year and they were fortunate enough to play the easiest Big 10 teams.  Wisconsin has 2 losses this year but at least they beat teams like Louisville and Michigan State on the road.  Wisconsin is one of the most experienced teams in basketball while Michigan’s leading scorer is only a Freshman and he will be facing some seniors.   Wisconsin is 6-4-1 as an away dog since 2019 and I think this spread is too big.  The Badgers will feel disrespected coming into Ann Harbor.   Take Sconnie

Wisconsin +3.5 – 2 star premium shared

Duke vs Virginia Tech +1 O/U 142

This will be a nice ACC matchup tonight and I am excited for this game.  Duke isn’t the team that they used to be over the years and they had some bad luck with Jaylon Johnson out their last 3 games but he might come back tonight and is questionable.  When I look at this line, I think that it is derived directly from Kenpom who started Duke too high in the rankings this year and the market still hasn’t caught up.  Duke’s 2 losses come from the Big 10 in Michigan State and Illinois and neither game was really that close.  Duke’s best win is vs number 89 Notre Dame and they struggled vs bottom of the barrel ACC teams at home since then.   Virginia Tech has some nice wins vs Villanova and Clemson and has performed better than expectations with only 1 stinker vs Penn State.  Virginia tech has beaten Duke outright 3 of the last 4 years at home.   I think they will continue this trend and win this game, and if Jaylen Johnson doesn’t play, it’s a  bonus to this handicap.

Virginia Tech +1 – 2 star premium shared

NFL Wildcard Weekened Free Plays

By
Kiev O'Neil
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Chicago vs New Orleans -10.5 O/U 47.5
This game is a pretty large spread for the playoffs.  Even if you think that the Bears are average at best, the Saints will have to get some good margin here to cover this thing.  Right now the Bears offense has been carrying the load while the defense has been very suspect and gave up some huge plays vs Green Bay. The Bears are at this point still very banged up on defense with now Roquan Smith out with an elbow injury.  Alvin Kamara who was out on Covid should be back for the Saints this week to pound the rock.  If that is the case, then it I can see a lot of running the ball today.  I am also concerned for the Bears scoring now that Darnell Mooney is out.  He was Chicago’s deep threat.   I think today that both defenses should be solid enough to control the scoring in this game.  Take the under.
Under 47.5 points – 2.5 star premium shared
Baltimore vs Tennessee +3 O/U 54
  • Everyone is going to play the revenge angle in this game from last year and I am not so sure that’s a smart thing to do.
  • Its obvious that Baltimore has both a really good offense and really good defense but Tennessee has a great offense and a bad defense.
  • Tennessee was able to expose some Lamar Jackson weaknesses last game and I think that they can do it again.
  • My Power Ratings has Baltimore only 1.25 point favorites on the road here.
  • Based on my algorithm, I have it Baltimore 28.5 to 26.5.
  • Tennessee is live here and Derek Henry will be hitting the holes very hard.

Tennessee +3 (+100) 3 star premium shared

College Basketball 1/8/21 to 1/10/21 Plays

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

Friday:

Purdue vs Michigan State -5.5 O/U 141.5

This is a pretty high total for Big 10 play.  The reason for the high total is that Big 10 games have been going over the total in general thanks to the way they went last year making the oddsmakers put lower numbers out.  That has been adjusted now and now that we are in conference play, it is an entirely different animal.  Some of these seconds per possession stats are skewed in Kenpom because the Big 10 played some very easy non-conference games.   When these teams play each other it tends to be more of a chess match than anything.  Now Purdue is a taller team with Travion Williams at 6’10 and Freshman Zach Edney at 7’4 but don’t be fooled.  Purdue ranks 9th worst in near proximity points at 67.45%.  That shows me that Michigan State should be able to score in the paint with offensive rotation.  Michigan State is also a decent 3 point team with Joey Hauser leading the way and he could easily get hot at home.   Both of these teams are bad at the free throw line which should lesson the total points scored.  Purdue doesn’t do anything that great and I think that they could struggle on the road at the Breslin Center.  Purdue only averages 68 points per game on the road and have yet to win a road game.  Michigan State averages 82.6 points per game at home with their only bad home game vs Wisconsin.  This stat of course includes their easy games but they are still a good home team.  I think we are going to see some defense here.  Although the price on the side has gotten too high for my liking for Michigan State, I am on the under here for sure.

Under 141.5 – 2 star premium play

Saturday

Clemson vs North Carolina -1 O/U 128 – 131 ish

This is a very nice ACC matchup here with the current best team in the ACC in Clemson against a very young North Carolina team.   Clemson has definitely the best defense in the ACC and they rank number 1 on Kenpom in defensive efficiency in the league.  I have watched their games and I have to agree that they really can shut down some teams.  North Carolina on the other hand is it’s own animal.  They play a very fast pace at 15.8 seconds per possession and they play great defense as well ranking 14th on Kenpom.   Due to these 2 teams defense, the under will most likely get hit pretty hard but I am going to say not so fast on that and take the other approach.   Clemson actually plays a little faster themselves ranking 207th in average possession length when they are 305th in pace.  This game is at North Carolina so I do expect some whistles to go UNC’s way and we should see some foul shots.  When facing taller teams like Purdue, Clemson went to 151 points and when Clemson faced Florida State the total also went over to 142 points.   I think Clemson can be scored upon in the paint and I think that this game goes over.

Over 129 – 2.5 star premium shared play

Sunday:

Minnesota vs Iowa -7.5 O/U 163

This here is a monster total and I do not disagree with it because both of these teams play quite fast.   The key to this handicap is a couple of things.   First, Minnesota has been a great home team but a very bad road team so far.  Since 2019, Minnesota is 5-10 ATS on the road and they only won 2 true road games last year.    Iowa on the other hand is 18-4-1 ATS since 2019 as a home team.  When you bet on teams like Iowa, they tend to get margin at the end of the game because they play so fast.   The only time you don’t want to back them is when they face a better team or an amazing defense when on the road.   This spread is probably going to creep up a bit but I really think that Iowa gets the job done easily and the cover.  I like this one to -9.5

Iowa -7.5 – 3 star premium shared play

  • If this spread gets to 10 then take Iowa Team Total over 87 – 2 stars
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