We have a great show for you today! The College Football Championship is almost here (if it doesn’t get postponed) and we have a free prop play for you! College Basketball is also ramping up and Kiev discusses 3 games that have some plays attached to them for this weekend. Should you need any games broken down for next week, please tweet us @TheOddsBreakers. Have a wonderful weekend!
NCAA Basketball: Purdue vs Michigan State – Clemson vs North Carolina and more!
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We have a great show for you today! Doug Upstone from @docssports comes on to break down some NFL Wildcard weekend plays and more! First, Kiev talks about some college basketball regression systems and candidates. Next, Doug comes on to discuss some more College Basketball handicapping techniques as well as the College Football National Championship Game. Then, the guys get right into wildcard weekend with some leans and some plays for your NFL enjoyment. Finally, Kiev gets into sharp line movements for the weekend in the NFL.
NFL: Baltimore vs Tennessee – Chicago vs New Orleans and more!
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I have both of these teams equally power rated but this is certainly an interesting matchup. NC State has been trending up in the ACC winning their last 4 games in a row while Kentucky has trended down losing 4 of their last 6 games and almost lost to Vanderbilt. There is really no secret on how to beat the Wildcats. They have a pretty good defense but they cannot throw the ball for the life of them. Their quarterback Terry Wilson has about just as many rushing attempts as their top running back. Stack the box and spy the Quarterback. NC State’s Strength is the passing game and Kentucky is a little weak defending it. Kentucky is a -.4 yards per play and NC State is +.1 I think NC State stacks the box, spies Wilson and beats this team outright.
NC State +2.5 – 2.5 star premium and sprinkle
Outback Bowl
Ole Miss vs Indiana -8 O/U 65.5
Indiana is pretty pissed off not getting to play on New Years and facing an opponent in Ole Miss who only won 4 out of 9 games this year. One key question is will Indiana be motivated? After some of the thing that Tom Allen said about being ready and the fact that Tampa is one of the fertile recruiting grounds for Allen, I expect a max Effort out of the Hoosiers. Now we know that Michael Penix hurt himself bad in the Maryland game tearing his ACL, but Jack Tuttle played well enough to help beat Wisconsin and he looks like a pretty good young quarterback. Now Ole Miss has a very high powered offense at 7 yards per play but they will be missing their top 2 pass catchers in Elijah Moore and Kenny Yeboah. That is huge for a high flying team to try and make up for. Indiana wasn’t a great rushing team but they should be able to move the ball against Ole miss who gives up 5.5 rushing yards per attempt and 7 yards per play. I think Indiana’s D stuffs this team and I also think Indiana will put up some points. My power ratings has this game at 7 and give Indiana another point for motivation and I am at 8. I gave this out at -6.5 but still would bet it at 8. I also like the under for a star or so.
Indiana -8 – 1.5 star premium shared and under 65.5 for 1.5 star premium shared play
PlayStation Fiesta Bowl
Oregon vs Iowa State -3.5 O/U 57.5
This Bowl is pretty hard to gauge with Oregon’s limited games this year. Sure they did a great job beating USC but that game was based on USC being sloppy with the ball and turning it over. Oregon lost to Oregon State and Cal this year somehow. Oregon is a nice net 1.2 yards per play so I will give them that. I think Oregon is a much better team when they grow up. They are a very young team who is prone to mistakes. Iowa State on the other hand might have beaten Oklahoma if they had 1 more quarter. Brock Purdy played terrible in the Big 12 Championship game but they almost came back vs Oklahoma and won it. Iowa State is a nice positive 1.4 yards per play in a tougher conference. I only have the Cyclone’s 1.5 points better than the Ducks but I like the situation for Iowa State here. Being that Matt Campbell lost the conference championship, I can see this team rallying for the Fiesta Bowl. Oregon won their Pac 12 in a weird Covid year and that might be enough for this team. I am going to wait a little and see if I can get a 3 but will hope to play this game.
Lean Iowa State -3.5
Capital One Orange Bowl
North Carolina vs Texas A&M -7.5 O/U 65.5
If you have listened to me all year long, you know that I think that Texas A&M is a bit overrated. They are not just overrated according to the national TV analysts. They are also overrated in their own eyes thinking that they are better than Notre Dame and Ohio State. This A&M team struggled with teams like Vanderbilt and Arkansas. They do have a nice win vs Florida at home but Florida also lost to LSU so they kinda do that. On the flip side, North Carolina has taken their lumps themselves Florida State and Virginia but they at least finished the season out well. The problem with North Carolina in this bowl game is that their top WR Dyami Brown, Top RB Michael Carter and Top Tackler/Sack leader Chazz Surratt is opting out for the NFL. The good news for UNC is that they have other running backs that can get the job done and some depth at defense. A huge question for me is will Texas A&M have some late opt-outs as well. Isaiah Spiller is their lead running back and a for sure NFL draft pick as long as he is healthy. QB Kellen Mond is better off playing the game to improve his draft stock. My power ratings has the Aggies -3 points better and a another 3 for the opt-outs, you get -6. I really like what Sam Howell has done this year and even with backups, he is capable of putting up a big offensive performance similar to what Bama did to A&M earlier this year. I Like North Carolina and they might win outright.
North Carolina +7.5 – 3 star premium play and sprinkle
It’s certainly been an interesting college football “season” to say the least. I put quotations around the word season for myriad reasons. Do any of us feel like we got the normal four-month action packed, drama-filled, down-to-the-wire affairs that we’re accustomed to in regular times? The answer is a resounding no, but “in these unprecedented times” (gosh I’m tired of hearing that too) we got a truncated college football season, some action and drama, and plenty of cancellations.
We’re looking at the Fiesta Bowl matchup between (25) Oregon and (10) Iowa State. The Cyclones have played five more games than the Ducks, so they clearly have more game experience and more to draw on. Oregon, however, is no stranger to the spotlight. The Ducks are mainstays in the CFP, with head coach Mario Cristobal leading them to a New Year’s Six bowl game every season since his arrival in Eugene. This is Iowa State’s first-ever Big 12 Championship season, so while they’re having a terrific season, they’re usually not on top at the end of the season. A stout defense, stellar running game and terrific coaching led them here.
What To Look For:
First, let’s look at what brought the Cyclones here. They have the best running back you’ve probably never heard of in Breece Hall. The 6’1” from Wichita, KS has found paydirt 19 times this season. He nearly ecliped 1,500 yards in only 11 games. The balanced Cyclone offense looks to him first to establish their ground game. The Ducks will undoubtedly have problems stopping Hall. Junior QB Brock Purdy has put up gaudy numbers this season. The 6’1” product of Gilbert, AZ has 18 TD to 9 INT on the season, passed for 2,594 yards which is 15th in the country. He’s completed 66.4% of his passes on the season.
The Ducks are led by QB Tyler Shough. The 6’5” Sophomore out of Chandler, AZ brings a 62.7% completion rate with 13 TD and 5 INT in the shortened season. Shough struggled in the PAC-12 Championship game against USC, and was pulled in favor of backup QB Anthony Brown, who bailed them out with two TDs late to escape with a victory, 31-24.
Sin City Sharp (@SinCitySharp on Twitter) Fiesta Bowl Prediction:
Matt Campbell has done amazing work with the Cyclones. This is their first-ever New Years Bowl appearance, and I feel they’re more than ready for the big stage. Purdy has proven himself to be a big game QB. Breece Hall will be giving the Ducks fits on the ground. While they might contain him, they won’t be able to stop the Cyclones’ passing game enough. Oregon is lucky to be in this game in the first place, they really should have lost to USC. This isn’t the usual Ducks squad of years past. Iowa State handled Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship game 27-20, and the Sooners are as good as Oregon, if not better. Look for Iowa State to cover the -4.5 and I also lean to the under here inside the dome.
Denver out-gained the LA Chargers 396 ro 316 yet lost 19-16. A 2-0 turnover ratio hurt.
The Washington football team out-gained Carolina 386 to 280 yet lost 20-13. A 4-2 turnover ratio and the Dwayne Haskins start hurt the bad.
Dallas only out-gained Philadelphia 362 to 326 yet won 37-17. A 3-1 turnover ratio took the Eagles out of the playoffs.
LA Rams out-gained Seattle 334 to 292 yet lost 20-9. A 1-0 turnover ratio and bad efficiency hurt.
Motivational Spots:
Highly Questionable Motivation:
The Chiefs will not want to play their starters long against the Chargers because they secured the top seed.
Questionable Motivation:
The Steelers could improve their seed to a number 2 with a win but Buffalo has to lose their final game. Number 2 doesn’t get you a bye either.
Buffalo might care less after halftime if the Browns are beating the Steelers as a large favorite.
Tampa Bay at Atlanta could not play starters long because they clinched the wildcard spot and they might not care who they get, although they can get the NFC East opponent with a win.
Teams wanting to play spoiler:
The Eagles can take out the Washington Football Team with a win.
The Jaguars could take the Colts out with a win.
The Bengals could potentially take the Ravens out of the playoffs with a win.
The Panthers could knock the Saints down to a 3 seed.
The Texans could potentially take the Titans out of the playoffs.
The 49ers could knock the Seahawks down to a 3 seed.
The Dolphins could knock the Bills down to a 4 seed if the Steelers and Titans win.
The Falcons might want to hurt the Buccaneers seeding in the playoffs with a win.
Happy New Year! Lets close out this turbulent 2020 with a bang! We have a wonderful show for you today! Kiev rolls solo to break down the rest of the college bowls and playoffs along with NFL week 17 leans and plays! First, Kiev gets into the show’s format change for College Basketball in 2021. Next, Kiev talks about how a 10 or even possibly an 11 win team in the AFC will miss the playoffs this year. Then, Kiev gets into the rest of the college bowl games from January 1st to January 2nd including the College football playoffs with some great info and plays. Next, Kiev talks NFL and what to look for during week 17. Will all the teams be motivated? Do teams like playing spoiler? Then, Kiev gives out his REFUSE TO LOSE teaser that is 10-6 for the year. Finally, Kiev gets into sharp line movements for the weekend in both College Football and the NFL.
NFL: Seattle vs San Francisco – Green Bay vs Chicago – Miami vs Buffalo and more!
NCAA: Alabama vs Notre Dame – Clemson vs Ohio State and more!
Should you need a sportsbook please visit betonline.ag and use the promo code, “Odds200” to get a 200% sign up bonus!!!! Terms, conditions and location apply.
For only 24.99 a month become an ODDSBREAKER’S MEMBER and gain access to all premium picks BEFORE the line moves please visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop!
The Cheeze-it Bowl – Oklahoma State vs Miami +1 O/U 64 –
Capping this game is really dependent on what your true thoughts are on the strength of the ACC vs the Strength of the Big 12. Both of these teams I would argue are 3rd best in both conferences. This is a little more of a home game for Miami being only 239 miles away and they will treat this as business. On the other hand, Miami has been horrible in bowl games over the past 9 years. Jeff Sagarin has Oklahoma State’s schedule a little easier than Miami but only by 16 spots. He has Oklahoma State 3.5 points better than Miami in his power ratings. I personally have Miami better than Oklahoma State by 1 point in my power ratings. I think that Miami is live here but I will wait for a 3 or better. but I doubt that I get that. Quarterback D’Eriq King announced last week that will be returning to Miami so the team will be motivated to play for him today. Their are 3 defensive opt outs for Miami are keeping me off the play.
Lean Miami +1
The Valero Alamo Bowl
Texas vs. Colorado +7 O/U 63
This game is interesting because we do know that the Big 12 is better than the Pac 12 yet this Colorado team has certainly surprised some people this year. This is essentially a home game for Sam Ellinger and Texas being just 80 miles away from San Antonio but sharp money keeps coming in on Colorado. Part of the reason for the Sharp money is that Texas hasn’t been a good favorite only at 18-22 ATS since 2015. Another reason for the Colorado money is that they have played very tough all year with their only loss against Utah and big wins vs UCLA and at Stanford. They however did avoid playing USC and lost their last game bad to Texas. Texas is +1.1 yards per play on a harder schedule and Colorado is a +.2 yards per play on an easier schedule. Team Rankings has Texas a 16 point Favorite, Sagarin has them a 13 point favorite, I have Texas as a 6.5 favorite and give Texas 1 point home field, then I have it at 7.5. Texas has some starters opting out for this bowl game as well.
Lean Colorado +7 and slight lean over
December 30th
Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Wake Forest vs Wisconsin -7 O/U 51.5 –
This game is interesting because its close to a home game for Wake being only an hour or so drive to Charlottesville but at the same time, Wisconsin has performed well in bowl games vs opponents in their back yards over the years. Wake Forest has been a very solid turnover team this year ranking number 1 in the nation at +13 and has only lost 3 all year. They are a team that can certainly score the ball but they also haven’t faced a good defense since Clemson the first game of the year. Wisconsin is most likely down their top 2 WRs as usual but what I will count on them for is playing very slowly controlling the time of possession and not allowing Wake to get the ball off like they are used to. Wisconsin should hold Wake from scoring much in this game as they ranking 3rd in the NCAA in defensive efficiency. According to my power ratings, Wisconsin is only a 6.5 point favorite on a neutral field but Wake is close to home so I’ll give them a point. I don’t want to bet a side in this game but Wisconsin is 4-2 to the under this year. I see lots of ways this can go under. Wisconsin scores a lot and Wake scores little. Wisconsin scores a little and so does wake. Wake Forest will have to get past 23 points for this to go over in my opinion and and I doubt that happens being that Wisconsin has held the Big 10 to 15 PPG on average. Taking the under in this game for sure.
Under 51.5 – 2.5 star premium shared play
The Music City Bowl
Missouri vs Iowa -14 O/U 49.5 – Cancelled
The Cotton Bowl
Oklahoma vs Florida -3 O/U 72 –
This bowl is an interesting handicap because Oklahoma has really been trending up and Florida is a great team that just missed the playoffs. This one is pretty simple to me. I can’t bet Florida here. I have no idea how to gauge their motivation after all that’s happened. Both teams have a few opt outs. Kyle Pitts from Florida who is their best tight end is opting out and Cornerback Tre Brown for Oklahoma is gone. My power ratings has this game Florida by 6.5 points. Give Oklahoma 1 point for home field at AT&T stadium and take 2 points away for Florida’s potential motivation let down and I am at -3.5 which is close to the spread. The total seems a little low for 2 high powered offenses but it also says that Okahoma’s defense is pretty good under Alex Grinch and I do expect that to show up this week. I also wonder if Oklahoma wants to win in the post season for the first time in a while being that they are finally out of the playoffs. I am going to relax on this bowl game and not make a play.
The late opt-outs for Florida changed this handicap so no play or lean.
December 31st
The Armed Forces Bowl
Mississippi State vs Tulsa -2.5 O/U 48
This lower total tells me a few things. For one, defense will be the deciding factor and for two, Mike Leach is playing slower. I think that this is a very interesting spread because you have an SEC team that had a terrible middle of their year and finished well vs a Tulsa team who has gotten lucky but still has an amazing 2 loss year. The Bulldogs only have 1 guy sitting out in Safety Marcus Murphy who is only 9th in tackles. Mississippi state is -.5 yards per play and Tulsa is +.85 in an inferior conference. My question here is how inferior is it? Alabama has destroyed every team except Florida and Ole Miss early. You have seen how poor the defense is in the SEC. My power ratings has Tulsa a -3.75 favorite but if you are going to bet either side, it means you believe that there is a misconception in the strength of the conference. I think the SEC is little bit weaker than people think. Lastly, Mike Leach is a bad 2-8 ATS in bowl games. He doesn’t seem to care as much from what I can see. I will lay the points with Tulsa.
Tulsa -2.5 – 2 star premium shared
The Arizona Bowl
Ball State vs San Jose State -9 O/U 62.5
Wow did this spread creep up. San Jose state has been cashing quite frequently this year at second best 6-0-1 ATS. I think you are paying a premium to bet this team at this point. I actually have San Jose State -7.5 in my power ratings but I am a little worried about the let down after they won the Mountain West conference. On the flip side, they are undefeated and do want to keep it that way. You also have to question Ball State’s motivation after winning the Mac and I also wonder if these kids are going to take this bowl seriously being so far away from home. The biggest thing for me to look at here is that San Jose State is a positive 2 yards per play in a harder conference while Ball State is somehow a -.2 yards per play yet has only lost 1 game in the MAC. The +7 turnover differential has helped them.
Lean San Jose State
The Liberty Bowl
West Virginia vs Army +7 O/U 41 –
Well this is the lowest total in the bowl games and it is because our boys from Army is playing their triple option game. Army is a very disciplined team that runs hard and hits hard. West Virginia has played well all year minus that last game vs Iowa State. The key to this game is how they do in the running game. The Mountaineers are great against the run only allowing 3.6 yards per rush. I think that they can stop the option. Army is solid on defense but they are a net negative .1 yard per play in an easy schedule while West Virginia is +.65 in a harder schedule. I think that Neal Brown has faced Georgia Southern enough when he coached at Troy in the Sunbelt to know how to stop the option. Brown has beaten Georgia Southern enough times by double digits to give me that confidence. My power ratings have West Virginia by 6.25 points but I am looking to them. My only concern is if Army limits their possessions so much that the mountaineers can’t get margin. Lean West Virginia and hoping for a better number later.
Lean West Virginia -7
The Texas Bowl
TCU vs Arkansas +5.5 O/U 56.5
TCU is a decent size favorite vs Arkansas here and if there is any side in a bowl game that I want to avoid, it is this one. TCU has been Jekyll and Hyde all year long beating teams like Texas and Oklahoma State and then losing to teams like Kansas State and West Virginia. On the other hand. Arkansas has been quite the Ying and Yang themselves beating both Mississippi teams and Tennessee while losing to Missouri and the rest of the SEC West. The good news for the Arkansas side is that they have been in every game in their schedule minus Bama and Florida of course. Even with the 3-7 record, Arkansas is somehow net .1 yards per play to TCUs net .7. The Razorback’s strength is the pass and Horned Frogs strength is the run. TCU has a pretty good defense this year and Arkansas has a below average D. I have TCU a 3.75 favorite on a neutral field. This game is located in Texas and about a 5 hour drive for TCU and their few fans so they get a little bump for home field moves it to about 5 as it is. In saying all this, I think that the under is in play. Both teams play below average possessions per game.
We have a great show for you today! 5-3 Last week in the NFL and 6-2 in College bowl games! First, Kiev recaps the weekend in the the NFL. Who disappointed and who exceeded expectations? Then, we talk about some misleading final scores in the NFL and some more motivational spots for the final week of the regular season! Finally, Kiev gets into his break downs and free plays for College Football Bowls December 29th – 31st! Just an FYI. This pod was recorded before all of the bad WR news for Florida.
Should you need a sports book please visit jazzsports.ag and use the promo code, “Oddsbreakers” to get a 50% sign up bonus! Terms, conditions and location apply.
For only 24.99 a month become an ODDSBREAKER’S MEMBER and gain access to all premium picks BEFORE the line moves please visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop!
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl – South Carolina vs UAB – South Carolina was 2-8 this year and they fired their coach. This reminds me of the LA Tech game vs Miami last year.
Goodyear Cotton Bowl – Oklahoma vs Florida – Florida was shooting for the playoffs and almost had it with that last drive vs Bama.
Capital One Orange Bowl – Texas A&M vs North Carolina – Just the sheer amount of whining that came of of the mouths of Texas A&M for missing the playoffs tells me they might not even be motivated here. If anything, they should be mad at the extremely flawed and biased playoff system of 4 teams. On the flip side, they might also be overconfident here and think UNC could be a push over. A very interesting handicap.
Questionable Motivation:
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl – Louisiana vs UTSA – Louisiana co-won their conference with the Coastal Carolina game cancelled and that just might be enough for them.
Duke’s Mayo Bowl – Wake Forest vs Wisconsin – Wisconsin was shooting for bigger things than this bowl but they did do well a few years back vs Miami in this situation.
Autozone Liberty Bowl – San Jose State vs Ball State – Both of these teams have questionable motivation after winning their conference but hard to predict which one or both.
Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl – Cincinnati vs Georgia – Cincinnati will be very motivated but Georgia’s expectations are always playoffs. At least they lost earlier in the year and were not in it at the end.
Cure Bowl – Coastal Carolina vs Liberty +6.5 O/U 59 – Coastal Carolina really got screwed here not being in a new years 6 but at the same time, this game was supposed to be played weeks ago.
Normal Expected Motivation – All the teams that I do not mention.
Potentially High Motivation:
TransPerfect Music City Bowl – Iowa vs Missouri – Iowa got screwed on this easier matchup and they were expecting something bigger.
The Outback Bowl – Indiana vs Ole Miss – Indiana got screwed over Iowa state and Northwestern playing in better bowls. Iowa State had 3 losses and 2 regular season. Tom Allen is reeling!
The Chick-fil-a Peach Bowl – Georgia vs Cincinnati – Cincinnati will play like UCF did vs Auburn back in 2016
