Oct 4, 2014; Knoxville, TN, USA; A general view of Neyland Stadium prior to the game against the Florida Gators and Tennessee Volunteers. Mandatory Credit: Randy Sartin-USA TODAY Sports
Some teams are lucky enough to have a small travel spot for these bowl games and they also could have some fans giving them a point or so home field advantage. Here are those teams:
The Boca Raton Bowl – UCF vs BYU – This is only a 200 mile drive for UCF while BYU travels across the country.
New Orleans Bowl – Louisiana Tech vs Georgia Southern – Just a half day 300 mile drive for LA Tech.
The Alamo Bowl – Texas vs Colorado – Only an 80 mile drive for Texas from Austin to San Antone!
The Duke’s Mayo Bowl – Wake forest vs Wisconsin – Only an hour drive from Wake Forest to Charlotte North Carolina.
Armed Forces Bowl – Mississippi State vs Tulsa – This is a 300 mile trip for Tulsa to Fort Worth Texas.
The Cheeze-it Bowl – Oklahoma State vs Miami – Not a far 239 mile drive for Miami.
The Texas Bowl – TCU vs Arkansas – Only a 263 mile trop from TCU to Houston!
This 49ers team is a shell of themselves compared to last year. Nobody on this team can be called healthy and I feel sick just looking at them. QB Nick Mullens has been a turnover machine this year and he tries to do too much. Mullens is dead last in QBR this year out of the current starting quarterbacks. The only think that is keeping the 49ers afloat in my opinion is great coaching by Kyle Shanahan. In saying all this, the 49ers are toast this year. The Cardinals have been a really flashy team but they also are prone to many mistakes. My concern for them is that they can easily give games away with turnovers and poor coaching situational decisions by Cliff Kingsbury but after last week, he should clean some of that up. My Power ratings has the Cardinals -5.5 here. I have the Game 27-22 based on my Algorithm. The situation for the Cardinals to win this game is dire being that they have the LA Rams on deck and are fighting for that last playoff spot.
Arizona -4 – 2 star premium shared play
Miami vs Las Vegas +2.5 O/U 47
Miami has been a very nice surprise this year and they are winning games on turnovers and efficiency.
Las Vegas has shown flashes by beating teams like the Chiefs and then they lose outright to the Falcons and almost to the Jets
The Carr Injury really throws a wrench into this spread but at the same time, the Dolphins have a lot of wide receiver injuries. Derek Carr isn’t completely ruled out this week but if Mariota starts then I think Gruden can get creative with him and dial up some Mariota type plays.
Miami is also in a let down spot after beating the Patriots at home.
One thing that I do know is that the Raiders can’t stop anything and I think the Dolphins are going to get their points this game. The Wildcard here is Mariota who if he runs the ball enough, I think that the Raiders will put some points up as well.
The Raiders are 10-3-1 to the over this year and I think that Gruden can dial up some plays to confuse Flores
I am going to take the over 47 here for 2 stars but I also lean the Raiders and might take them.
Chicago vs Jacksonville +7.5 O/U 47
The Bears are not who we thought they were. They finally put together an offensive line with some guys like Alex Bars, and Sam Mustipher who played for Notre Dame undrafted and now looks like an all pro run blocker. Only took them 12 weeks to figure that one out huh.
What the Bears are doing under Bill Lazor is what fans have been screaming for them to do. Roll out Mitch on play action. Mitch is a terrible and nervous pocket passer and is much better on his feet. Once again. Took 12 weeks to figure that out.
The Bears are now putting up some points but their defense has regressed with 2 starting secondary missing last game along with the nickel corner. They are questionable to return this week.
The Jaguars are even more injured with pretty much half of their already bad defense out.
The good news for Jacksonville is that Garner Minshew should be playing with his wide receivers finally healthy in DJ Chark and Laviska Shenault
The Bears even tho they need this win very badly could be in a flat spot here with the packers on deck so I would look at the over this game.
I think Jacksonville puts up enough points to keep up with the bears and go over the total.
Over 47 – 2 star premium shared play
Refuse to Lose Teaser is 9-6 this year. Tease the Steelers up to +7.5 with the Bears to -1.5 – 2 star premium shared play
Hawaii hired a great coach in Todd Graham this year. This team has done very well compared to their expectations beating teams like Nevada and Fresno State. Not a lot has changed with this Hawaii team as they still play fast at 76 plays per game and average a modest 26 points per game. Houston on the other hand started out with promise and failed to deliver. They are dead even in points per game at 32 on offense and Defense and the same with yards per play at 5.9. Houston also plays at an above average pace of play under Dana Holgorsen at 75 plays per game and they are also pretty turnover prone at -1 per game which gives other teams good field position. My power ratings have this about a -10 point favorite for Houston but I am more interested in the over. I think both teams can score against each defense. Hawaii also gives up 5.9 yards per play and 29 points per game vs an easy schedule. Taking the over.
Over 59.5 – 2 star premium shared play
December 25th – Christmas Day
The Camellia Bowl
Buffalo vs Marshall -3 O/U 53.5
This game should be called the disappointment bowl. Both of these teams lost their conference championship and both conferences kinda suck at playing football. Marshall is a nice 1.6 yards per play and Buffalo is a 2.5 yards per play. My power ratings has this game Buffalo by only .5 points but I can’t bet Marshall due to Grant Wells having the Yips at quarterback. Wells didn’t even complete a first half pass against UAB except to the defense. He lost confidence and its hard to bet on that. I really want to bet Buffalo here but the coach for Marshall Doc Holiday is 6-1 ATS in bowl games. Gonna watch this one and lean under.
Lean under 53.5
December 26th
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
South Carolina vs UAB -6 O/U 53
The fact that a 2 win team as bad as South Carolina is actually in a bowl game over a team like Army is really sad. UAB is a much more respectable on the other hand is a very solid team who won their conference and is a pretty large favorite over someone on the SEC. Blazers coach Bill Clark should be getting a power 5 job soon enough. Since Muschamp was fired, this team slid farther and farther downhill. In saying all of this, this team was at least in their game vs Ole Miss and won against Auburn. I highly question the motivation for them and don’t think that they care about being embarrassed. On the other hand, the motivation is factored into the line. I have UAB -4 and am wondering where this line will go.
Lean UAB -6
Cure Bowl
Coastal Carolina vs Liberty +7 O/U 59
Both teams have been on a tear and Liberty only as 1 loss from a power 5 team by 1 point.
Starting out with the Power ratings, I have Coastal Carolina 3.5 points better than Liberty. This makes the spread to me a bit high at 6.5
Schedules. Sagarin has Liberty at 140th in the nation with Coastal at 108th but I would argue that maybe Liberty has had just as hard of a path having to battle 3 ACC teams.
Passing favors Coastal Carolina some
On the Ground Liberty has the edge at 5.7 yards per rush to CC’s 5.0.
Total yards per play has Liberty a +1.7 and Coastal a +1.4 but we must remember that Liberty fed off of a lot of horrible teams with 2 FCS teams and Lousiana Monroe and FIU.
Coastal got screwed not getting a New Years 6 or at last a better bowl and I think they have questionable motivation here.
I think there are too many points here and I like Liberty in this spot for sure.
Liberty +7 – 3 star premium and sprinkle
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Louisiana vs UTSA +13.5 O/U 57.5 –
This game is interesting because it is hard to gauge Louisiana’s motivation after not getting to play their conference championship and awarded the lovely status of “co-champions.” I would like to think that they will try and I am pretty sure that UTSA will be motivated here. The Roadrunners had some ups and downs this year getting past injuries but second string quarterback Frank Harris finally figured it out. UTSA is great running the ball at 5.23 yards per rush while Louisiana can do both very well. Louisiana has had the harder schedule and has a much better +1.6 yards per play to +.2 for UTSA. My power ratings has this game almost on the spread due to Louisiana’s stiff defense that only allows 20 points per game. I think if UTSA has a chance it will have to be on the ground.
Lean UTSA +13.5 and Lean under 57.5
Lending Tree Bowl
Western Kentucky vs Georgia State -4.5 O/U 51.5 –
During their last 2 games, Western Kentucky finally scored over 35 points in both of them when all year they could barley sometimes get to 20. Not sure if that is a fluke because they played Charlotte and FIU or if they really got better. Georgia State on the other hand is a very good Sun Belt team who beat Georgia Southern and Kept up with Louisiana and Appalachian State. Both of these teams are very good against the run allowing 4.2 or less yards per rush but Georgia State has the better offense. The Panthers has an even yards per play to the Hilltopper’s -.4 My power ratings have Georgia State -3.5 so no play for me but I do lean under.
Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays! We have a wonderful Christmas show part (B) to bring you today with one of the heaviest hitters in sports betting! Wagertalk’s Marco D’Angelo @MarcoInVegas comes on to break down a YUGE NFL card! First, Kiev answers a listener question about key numbers. Then, Kiev talks about College Bowl home field advantages and motivations spots. Which teams could be very motivated? Which teams could mail it in? Next, Marco comes on and the guys discuss why handicapping week 16 and 17 is different than the rest of the regular season. The guys talk about which teams are in their top 5 and which teams could make a run with some value for the Super Bowl. Next, Marco and Kiev break down a bunch of NFL games and give out some plays and some leans. Then, Kiev gives out his REFUSE TO LOSE teaser that is 9-6 for the year. Finally, Kiev gets into sharp line movements for the weekend in both College Football and the NFL.
NFL: Indianapolis vs Pittsburgh – Chicago vs Jacksonville – Miami vs Las Vegas and more!
NCAA: Liberty vs Coastal Carolina – Marshal vs Buffalo and more!
Should you need a sportsbook please visit betonline.ag and use the promo code, “Odds200” to get a 200% sign up bonus!!!! Terms, conditions and location apply.
For only 24.99 a month become an ODDSBREAKER’S MEMBER and gain access to all premium picks BEFORE the line moves please visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop!
This has to be the worst bowl in the nation. There are no fans at the game, you are traveling to a cold destination, and it could be freezing with bad weather. In staying that, I do like the matchup. Nevada has obviously had plenty of games against Boise State here and Tulane is certainly in for a temperature change. According to my power ratings, I have Tulane 6.75 points better than Nevada although Tulane has only a +.1 yards per play to Nevada’s 1.1. Tulane has certainly faced stiffer competition so its hard for me to guage YPP too much here. One thing is that it will be a little windy and the ground game will come more into play. Tulane at 5.0 yards per rush and giving up only 3.28 with their stiff D line. Nevada 4.21 yards per rush and giving up 3.8.
I lean Tulane here -3 and lean the under 56
Boca Raton
UCF vs BYU -7 O/U 73.5
This is certainly more of a home game here for UCF and they will certainly have some fans. Central Florida is still that high flying offense with a below average defense and BYU is very solid on both ends and their only loss was playing a bad game at Coastal Carolina. My power ratings have BYU only a 4 point favorite on a neutral field but both teams should be motivated here. BYU has a monstrous +2.9 YPP to UCF’s +.9 but UCF certainly had a harder schedule. I think that BYU is probably going to win this game and they have the much better efficiency numbers but I also know that Central Florida can back door lots of teams so I am not running to the table to lay -6.5. I also know that Boca Raton is only a few hour drive for UCF and some fans.
Lean UCF + 6.5 – Lean Under 73.5
December 23rd
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Louisiana Tech vs Georgia Southern -6 O/U 49.5
LA tech is a team who lost a ton of guys last year and it took a while for this team to develop and look decent. They finished their conference solid beating UAB and North Texas and then lost bad to TCU. Georgia Southern is that option team that throws the ball once in a while. They are amazing on the ground at 5.4 yards per carry and only giving up 5.25 yards per play on defense. My power ratings have Georgia Southern an 8 point favorite on a neutral field but it is more of a home spot for Louisiana tech and I have to give them a point for that. Another thing that keeps me off Georgia Southern is that Skip Holtz is 8-3 ATS in bowl games which worries me some.
Lean Louisiana Tech at the 6
The Montgomery Bowl
FAU vs Memphis -8 O/U 50.5
Memphis really took a big step back this year and were not even one of the top 3 teams in the conference. FAU on the other hand took aslo a step back as well under Willie Taggert. FAU plays much slower this year and struggled to score much on offense. I have Memphis -13.25 on my power ratings so this is a play. Both of these disappointing teams are about +.1 yards per play but I think that Memphis can get margin and should be able to handle this team.
