Yours truly was 4-1 last night and now I’m 12-6 overall betting the NBA this week, a cool 66.6% win rate. The fire is blazing– let’s keep it alive!
Pacers -1.5 (-110), 1.5 units: The Hawks are skidding right now and things may get worse tonight. Atlanta is coming into this contest without a ton of dependable players, including De’Andre Hunter, Bogdan Bogdanovic and Rajon Rondo. They got obliterated last night by San Antonio, which isn’t a good look considering the 2021 Spurs don’t frequently dominate anyone. The Pacers looked back to form 2 nights ago against the Pistons, bringing the balanced attack we’re used to seeing from Indiana when they’re playing up to par. This is another good spot for the Pacers, while Atlanta is begging for rest before a 3-game road trip. Take the Pacers.
Rockets/Knicks under 213.5 (-110), 1 unit: Houston is limping into this contest and the Knicks aren’t a good anecdote for a struggling team right now. New York isn’t a great unit overall, but they do play consistently great defense. They’re disciplined, aggressive, and they lead the NBA in points allowed per game. John Wall and the Houston offense is really struggling. Victor Oladipo is out today and PJ Tucker is questionable. I keep looking for spots to bet on Houston but they’re just so tough to trust lately. I think the Knicks steal a win, but I have to take a total that mysteriously keeps rising. This is 10 points too high.
Heat +7 (-105), 1.5 units: No one is more a fan of the Jazz right now. Utah is white-hot heading into Saturday after blowing out the Bucks and controlling that game from start to finish. Not many teams are capable of doing that to Milwaukee. Not to mention, I won some good money on Utah last night– can’t hate that. I’m only taking this position because that was a HUGE game Friday night and these guys are human after all. Utah can’t possibly play with that level of intensity in every game, let alone the next night after such a big statement win. Miami is starting to find their groove. Winners of now 4 straight, I love the way they fought and strangled the Rockets down the stretch 2 nights ago. Miami knows how to play under pressure– the Jazz, even with their new-found prowess, won’t intimidate Jimmy Butler and company. Look for the Heat to make a statement today. The Jazz should win, but Miami will push Utah.
Hopefully the gambling gods will show us some “love” on valentines weekend!
Loyola Chicago vs Drake +3.5 O/U 133 –
This is certainly the best game of the weekend.
Both of these teams are in the top 10 for FG%
Loyola plays a little slower and Drake plays a little faster.
Drake has the rebounding advantage ranking 45th in the league at 39 per game to Loyola ranking 299th in the league at 32 per game.
Loyola has the better FG percentage by a small margin but they certainly have the better defense ranking 8th on Kenpom in defensive efficiency to Drake’s 75th.
I have Loyola winning this game 70-65 but I think that the first half is the better play.
Cameron Krutwig is compared to Ethan Happ and he should be. Teams don’t have an answer for him down low and he scores in such creative ways. I think that it takes Drake some time to adjust to him. I also noticed that Loyola has been starting many of their away games on fire lately and they always seem to win the game in the first half.
Loyola Chicago 1st half -2 – 2 stars
Oklahoma vs West Virginia -2.5 – O/U 144
Oklahoma has been on a tear lately with wins vs Alabama and Texas. Their only hiccup was about a week again vs Texas Tech but they since have beaten Iowa State. One thing that I found interesting for the Sooners is that they tend to score a lot more points at home rather than on the road. They average 79 per game at home and a mere 67 on the road. I also think that number would be even lower without that high scoring Texas road win a few weeks back when they shot over 34 free throws. I think that this is a spot where West Virginia can seal themselves as the second best team in the Big 12 behind Baylor. Oklahoma has a big weakness in 3 point defense. The Sooners rank 294th at 37% defending the 3 while West Virginia ranks 38th at 37.4% shooting the 3. West Virginia also ranks 9th in offensive rebounds so they are able to clean up their misses pretty well. I am going to take the Mountaineers here and I like them all the way to -4.5
West Virginia -2.5 – 2 star
Iowa vs Michigan State +4.5 O/U 153
Michigan State isn’t a good team this year and the only reason that they covered at Iowa a few weeks back was due to Iowa trying to get fouled at the end rather than playing smart offense.
Iowa still has some defensive woes and part of the reason that they beat Rutgers and covered was due to Rutgers very low 3 point percentage at 20% that game.
Michigan State is sloppy on both sides of the ball. Joey Hauser likes to hang out on the perimiter and that doesn’t help Michigan State down low at all.
Both of these 2 teams tend to play pretty high paced basketball but Michigan State has not been putting up many points against inferior big 10 teams scoring 66 on the road at Nebraska and 60 at home vs Penn State.
I think that this is a statement game for Iowa after that long losing streak. Iowa has that great offense ranking number 1 on Kenpom and Michigan State won’t be able to slow them down.
I think Iowa covers this game at the short number here.
Kelvin Gastalum is a good fighter and has been around the block plenty of times for being only 29 years old but I feel like he has already peaked and can’t take it past that tier 2 fighter type level. Kelvin lost 4 of his last 6 fights and hasn’t really shown me anything. Ian Heinisch is also a good fighter and he might not be much better than Gastalum, but the price of this fight is what we are talking about. Ian has a nice record at 14-3 and his only 2 UFC losses were against some great competition going the distance with Derek Brunson and Omari Akhmedov. I think that both fighters can take some punches and Gastalum seems to be more susceptible to submission more than Ian is. The good news for Gastalum is that Ian doesn’t really win by submission which makes the chances of this fight increased to go the 3 round distance. Gastalum has never been knocked out but he certainly can lose at a decision. Ian has the better strike accuracy at 52% to 43% and he also has the better take down average at 1.18 per 15 minutes to .87. I think that the fight will go the distance and the -225 tells you that, but I also think that Ian can easily win this fight at the +190 price.
Ian to win the fight at +180 for 1.5 stars and take half that bet and take Ian Heinisch to win by decision at +350 at 1 star
Gilbert Burns vs Kamaru Usman -270
If you like boring main events, well this one is for you. Kamaru Usman’s fighting style is very anti-climatic. He holds his opponents against the cage the whole fight and waits for the final bell of the last round.
Usman at 17-1 hasn’t lost since 2013. He has an amazing reach at 76 inches even at 6 foot tall at 170 lbs. Burns is a good fighter at 19-3 and he is fighting very well with 6 wins in a row, but he isn’t a match for Usman. Burns won’t be able to really touch Usman him due to his speed. Usman is the Floyd Mayweather of the UFC right now.
This fight is going the distance. I know this because in Usman’s last 11 fights, 9 have went the distance. Usman is too good of a fighter to get knocked out and Gilbert Burns has only been knocked out once in his career.
Usman likes to win but he is smart about it. He isn’t going to go for the glory and instead he is going to pin burns against the cage like he does everyone else. This will be boring fight but Usman is the best at 170.
Take the fight going the distance at -140 for 2 stars and take Usman for the win by points at 1 star.
I took Friday off from my free NCAAM Picks article and I’m glad I did. Sometimes you need a recharge. Plus, I would have bet on Manhattan +4, UC Davis -9, Illinois -14, and Bellarmine -6.5– all of which would have caused me pain. What a weird week it’s been in college hoops. Strangely, I feel great about this Saturday card. Let’s get it!
Ohio State -6.5 (-110), 2 units: I’ve enjoyed Indiana’s recent run as much as the next guy or gal and I’ve won money off the Hoosiers, but I think this is the end of that dream. Ohio State is the real deal. At a certain point, as a fan or bettor, you just have to appreciate when a team is exceptional. Ohio State is solid in every facet of the game. They’re efficient, well-coached, and they don’t make many mistakes. Winners of 5 straight, Ohio State will handedly take care of business at home. I think by double digits. It’s time for Indiana to take a seat, at least for the moment. They’re overdue.
Florida State -13 (-115), 1.5 units: Wake Forest is a formidable opponent against most teams, but this isn’t most teams. The Seminoles, for my money, are one of the better teams in the nation right now (sans Baylor and Gonzaga, of course). Florida State is getting better as the year goes on. They’re one of the most efficient offenses in the country and they’re almost impossible to stop when they capture offensive rebounds, which they will against an under-sized and less talented Demon Deacons unit. Besides that aberration early in the year where they lost against UCF, Florida State is also dominant on their home court, where they win routinely by margin. Throw all the “they haven’t played in 2 weeks” narratives and other in-conference narratives out. The Seminoles will whoop the far less capable Demon Deacons at high noon, and by plenty more than 13.
Xaiver -3 (-115), 1 unit: Fool me once UConn but you won’t fool me twice. I was all over the Huskies a few days ago in a prime spot against Providence, and boy did they fall hard. Even without James Bouknight, I really thought they’d rise to the occasion as the tournament draws near. Plus they were due for positive regression, or so I thought. Not only did they not rise, they were outplayed the entire game against an average Big East team. Maybe UConn just isn’t very good without their star, and now here comes Xavier. Do you think the Musketeers are motivated for this game? I think they are. This is a big game that could propel Xavier into a solid position as we near March, and maybe this is a little recency bias but I just don’t trust UConn. Give me an above-average Big East unit to knock out the Huskies. P.S. Bouknight is reportedly still out.
Auburn wins (+115), 1 unit: Kentucky is not the same as past years, that much is clear. They’re still favored Saturday, at home, and I get it. The Wildcats still have some above-average talent and it’s a good spot after 4 straight losses to get a win. I don’t think it happens. Auburn is a formidable team with a considerably better offense than Kentucky. They’re certainly more consistent. Although the Wildcats have the better defense, this one could get away from them if they’re not properly motivated. And I’m not sure they will be. The season is slipping away, in fact it probably already has, and Auburn should want this game more. Give me the Tigers to steal one in Lexington.
Iowa -5 (-105), 1.5 units: Okay Iowa, now it’s go time. I know the market and the sharps respect Tom Izzo, but Iowa is the better unit and they have the best player in this game, by far. I don’t love the way McCaffrey coaches, but if Garza can stay out of foul trouble and stay in the game, there’s no reason the Hawkeyes shouldn’t be able to keep a distance from the Spartans. Every sharp and their brother will be on Michigan State in this game, probably because they’re still mad after Penn State covered 4 days ago, but this isn’t the same Michigan State team and Iowa has far more to play for.
Fresno State -4.5 (-110), 2 units: These are two pretty horrible teams, but Fresno State is one of the most consistent teams in the nation. You know what you’ll get from the Bulldogs. I’m an Air Force vet, and even I can admit it doesn’t get much worse than the Falcons. Fresno State won by 6 two nights ago- they’ll win by 10+ Saturday.
Duke -3 (-110), 1.5 units: In past years this would be a 5 unit bet but here’s Duke, only favored by 3 points against (yawn) NC State, and we all have some trepidation. Duke is a flawed team, but they still have plenty of talent, certainly more position by position than NC State. The Wolfpack have a fluid offense and the way they play reminds me of the Tar Heels. We all know that didn’t fare well for the Blue Devils last weekend. However, too often we look at statistics and we assume that a team who has strengths similar to another team will perform or match up the same way against like opponents. Not true. Talent, coaching, and motivation disparity make a huge difference. Duke is a proud unit and they should be very motivated to get off the schneid. Take Duke to cover.
Weber State +1 (-110), 1.5 units: This is an amazing comeback spot for Weber State. They’re the better team and they’re overdue. Check out my article 2 days ago on this very same contest. I can’t imagine the Wildcats blowing this twice.
UNC/UVA over 129.5 (-110), 2 units: This game isn’t staying under 130 points. The Tar Heels are feeling themselves after that underdog win last week against Duke, a game where they throttled the Blue Devils and could not be stopped on offense. UVA’s defense cannot be compared to Duke’s, but the Cavaliers can put up points and keep pace with teams that depend on a fast pace offense to win. The Cavaliers will surely slow this game down, just not enough to keep it under 130 points. This line indicates as much, since nearly ever UVA total is in the mid 120s range. In other words, the books are daring you to take the under by making the total look higher than it is. Don’t do it. North Carolina knows that if they have any chance of winning, they’ll need to push the fast-break and pressure the UVA front court. I think UVA covers, but I think they’ll have to eclipse 70 points to do it. That favors the over.
UFC 258 presents a decent card Saturday night and I’m here to set you up with what I think is some of the best value bets. Plenty of opportunity- Good luck!
Brian Kelleher (+195): Ricky Simon is fun to watch. He fights with reckless abandon and can fool his opponent into thinking he’s not technically sound, yet just over 3 weeks ago he showed his range with a dominant 2nd round win by submission over Gaetano Pirrello. Simon is relentless, intense, and does not retreat. Brian Kelleher fights with a more calculated aggression. Kelleher suffered a set-back loss last June against Cody Stamann but then got back in the win column against Ray Rodriguez in September. For my money, Kelleher is still underrated. With a pro record of 22-11, 35% by KO/TKO and 45% by submission, Kelleher can beat you in a lot of different ways. A complete fighter like the underdog Saturday night, who’s tactical but as fearless as the favorite, spells value to me. I’ll be on Kelleher to win.
Polyana Viana (+120): I’m not sure if I’ll bet this but there’s inherent value in Viana since this is an evenly matched contest. Mallory Martin, the favorite, is a young prospect in the UFC Women’s strawweight division. Viana has gone 1-3 in her UFC career, with her last victory coming by quick submission. Martin beat a struggling Hannah Cifers in her last fight, so I’m not sure how seriously I should take that win. Viana has the reach advantage and both fighters last fought in August 2020. If the always scrappy Viana can get this fight to the ground and look for a submission, she can win this fight.
Ian Heinisch (+180): Kelvin Gastelum has been through some wars. At his best we’ve seen him defeat the likes of Tim Kennedy and Michael Bisping, and he’s gone the distance with UFC stars Darren Till and Israel Adesanya. His last fight might’ve been his poorest performance. Jack Hermansson is a beast but Gastelum looked unmotivated and overwhelmed, losing the fight within 90 seconds of the first round. Ian Heinisch is a formidable opponent, capable of going the distance (50% of his fights have) and he has powerful striking ability, as we saw in his impressive 1st round TKO over Gerald Meerschaert last June. There’s an intangible about Heinisch that’s hard to describe, too. The Denver native trains out of Thailand, survived addiction and a stay at Riker’s Island in a previous life, and apparently tells every opponent he fights, “you just fought a future UFC champion.” There’s a toughness and resilience to Heinisch that I might be pretentiously overstating, or perhaps the young man is poised for a run. If Gastelum isn’t as desperate as he should be, I like Ian’s chances.
Maycee Barber (+105): It’s hard to find plus money on the underdog anymore as Maycee Barber has been steadily taking in money. One of the biggest prospects in female MMA has been through the ringer the past year, tearing her ACL and losing to the scrappy Roxanne Modafferi last January. Now that the whole world knows Roxanne a little better this isn’t entirely shocking, but Maycee was a huge favorite in that fight and now the books are selling her value. Maybe it’s a question of the ACL and Alexa Grasso is a very solid fighter, but Barber has tremendous upside and should be supremely motivated heading into UFC 258. The fact that this fight is right before the main event speaks to Barber’s star potential. It ain’t because of Grasso, I’ll tell you that. Unless she pulls another ligament, Barber has a very real strength and athleticism advantage and should overwhelm Grasso. This is my favorite pick and I expect this line to keep reversing in her favor. Take Maycee.
Kamaru Usman to win inside distance (+215): Usman is not superhuman, but he may be the closest thing we have in the fight-game. Riding a humble 16 fight win streak, Usman is, for our money, the most complete fighter in the UFC. Gilbert Burns is a formidable opponent in the sense that he’s well rounded and capable of big knockouts, but he’s not in the same class as Usman. Usman’s reach advantage will be a healthy 5 inches Saturday and that’s bad news for Burns. The underdog would have to catch Usman making a big mistake (which literally doesn’t happen) or fight perfectly to compete with the champ. Five rounds with these two studs feels like a long time, so why not take a shot at Usman ending the main event early. Usman is surely capable.
UFC 258 Parlay- Maverick, Muhammad, Maycee Barber and Usman (1 unit to win 4.5 units): Maverick looks like she could be a a star-in-the-making after her first UFC fight ended in an impressive stoppage win. Her opponent, Gillian Robertson, is a solid fighter but hasn’t been as active nor does she have the upside of Maverick. The young gun should take advantage of her position. Belal Muhammad is a -500 for a reason. He’s the far better fighter and his opponent hasn’t fought for 16 months. Take Muhammad with confidence. Check out my write-ups above on Barber and Usman for more intel on why they’re ideal parlay additions, too.
Houston, we have a problem. The tortuous Rockets kept me from another undefeated day as they choked over and over again in the game’s final minute against Miami. You could feel the angst in the air for Houston to eek out a win, but they couldn’t muster 3 straight defensive rebounds and a chance to tie the game. Brutal. We went 2-1 (8-5 overall this week) otherwise as the Celtics and Pacers cleaned up as expected. Onto my TGIF picks!
Timberwolves +4 (-110), 1.5 units: This is the second game back for Karl-Anthony Towns and the rising star admitted that he wasn’t mentally ready Wednesday when his team took on the LA Clippers. He put in a solid effort with 18 points and 10 rebounds but more importantly, Towns served as an imposing figure any time he was circling the front court. Minnesota came out hot in that game, motivated surely by their star’s return, but LAC grinded for a 7 point win. To me, that’s an impressive loss for Minnesota and a learning opportunity for Towns. Tonight the butterflies won’t be as present and I think the Minnesota star just might tear up the Hornets. The Hornets were sent to the woodshed 2 nights ago as the Grizzlies put up 23 three-pointers (whoa) and won by 14 points. I like watching Charlotte– their young, talented, and they can compete against great teams when they’re fluid. But eventually Minnesota needs a game where everything clicks and I think this is a good spot. D’Angelo Russell is questionable, but I don’t think he makes that much of a difference since Minnesota has adapted without him. Karl-Anthony Towns won’t be intimidated by Charlotte’s below-average center Cody Zeller, and Minnesota can score in bunches against bad defenses (Charlotte scores in the bottom half of the NBA in defensive efficiency). Take the T-Wolves to cover, and don’t be surprised if they win.
Knicks/Wizards under 219.5 (-110), 1.5 units: The Knicks and Wizards are strange teams. New York ranks #1 in the NBA in points allowed per game and dead last in points scored per game. Meanwhile, no one in the NBA allows more points than the Wizards. To make this game even weirder, the Wizards are rated #1 in the NBA in tempo with a Hollinger pace factor of 105.9. Guess who ranks dead last in tempo? Yup, the Knicks. We’ve seen this story so many times, though. The slower-paced team usually controls and affects the game more, especially if they have excellent defense. Lately Wizards’ games have been soaring under the total anyway, so we love this spot. Look for a live-bet opportunity if the 1st quarter is close to 60 points or the 1st half is close to 120. That won’t continue.
Mavericks -3 (-110), 1 unit: Two of the NBA’s hottest teams come into Friday in a great intra-divisional Western Conference matchup between the Pelicans and Mavs. Although the Pelicans lost two days ago against Chicago, New Orleans has played terrific team basketball the last ten days, winning 4 out of 5 games against very solid teams (Phoenix, Indiana, Memphis, and Houston). The Mavericks are riding their own 3-game winning streak and they’ve also won 4 out of their last 5. This should be a testy back-n-forth game so I wouldn’t be surprised if New Orleans covers the number, but the Pelicans are just 4-8 on the road this year and I don’t like how that game ended against Chicago. The Pelicans fell off a cliff in the 3rd quarter on both sides of the ball and got outscored 40-14. Yikes. Dallas has real momentum, they’re in the middle of a 7-game home stretch, and they should be able to expose NO’s porous defense. Take the favorite.
Clippers -6.5 (-110), 1.5 units: This line feels off. LAC will be without Paul George tonight, but the Clippers have far more depth than Chicago, who will be without 4 front court players. I really like the way the Clippers match up tonight. Zach LaVine has been on fire this year, scoring over 28 ppg, but he’ll have to square up against the long-armed Kawhi Leonard. Good luck. The Bulls rank 3rd in tempo and love to push the pace, but they’re not particularly efficient on offense. The Clippers are a solid defensive unit who, like the Knicks, like to slow down game-tempo. The return of Patrick Beverly should make a difference, too. The Clippers face the lowly Cavaliers in 2 days, which could serve as a “rest spot” for key players, so this game sets up well for LAC to put up a great effort before returning home. Not to mention, the Clippers are simply the far better unit. Take LAC.
Jazz -2.5 (-110), 2 units: The great thing about big primetime showdowns like this is you can get a great line. Both of these teams are elite, but I really like the Jazz tonight. We’ve all seen the Bucks buckle in the spotlight before– whether it’s Giannis choking on the free throw line or his supporting cast just not showing up as he tries to carry the team. Milwaukee suffers from a bunch of B and C rated players trying to keep up with their star. The Jazz are the opposite. Utah plays exceptional team basketball, where every player knows their role and how they can contribute best. Gobert down-low, Mitchell’s explosive play-making, Ingles and Bogdanovic’s efficient perimeter shooting– it’s true poetry in motion. Winners of 5 straight, at home and off 3 days rest, the Jazz are poised and ready to make a statement. Expect them to cover.
Lean, Lakers -6.5 (-110): This is one of those “big difference in class” games and the Lakers are due for a blowout win. The Grizzlies have allowed at least 115 points in 4 out of their last 5 games, LAL wants to extend their home-winning streak, and Lebron has showed no signs of slowing down. This is only a lean because the Lakers have a big game on deck against Denver Sunday and this could be a rest-spot. Watch for injury updates prior to tip-off, but bet the Lakers with confidence if their stars are on the hardwood.
This one is an auto-play for me on Illinois. Nebraska is coming off some short rest from their game vs Wisconsin on Wednesday and Illinois has had almost a week since they have played last. The Illini are so hot right now and they are one of the best teams in college basketball. Illinois can put up some serious points ranking 10th in away points per game at 82. Both of these teams play fast so I expect extra possessions for Illinois to get the easy cover. I think that they can win by 20+ points here and I like the upside
Illinois -14.5 – 1.5 star
Georgia Tech vs Clemson -3.5 O/U 129
This game here is all about regression and matchup. Clemson isn’t a great shooting team but they can defend well inside. These 2 teams have already played each other once with Georgia Tech winning 83-65 thanks to shooting an amazing 62% from three point land. Clemson just could not keep it together last game due to turning the ball over 20 times and poor 3 point defense. Is this a spot where Clemson gets it right at home? I actually do not think so, Georgia Tech is a good 3 point shooting team at 36.1% while Clemson struggles to guard the 3 allowing 34.1% to go in. Clemson also has turnover issues at 19.5% of possessions while Georgia Tech ranks 14th in the nation at 8.9 steals per game. Gonna take Georgia Tech here and sprinkle that ML.
We have great show for you today! Paul Napier from Playing The Odds NASCAR Style @NascarStyleOdds comes on to break down the Daytona 500 and Cub Fan Danny @CubFanDanny is back for UFC 258! First, Kiev recaps the Super Bowl and then gets into a listener question about different juice charged by different sportsbooks. Then, Paul comes on to break down some NASCAR? What are the rule changes? Who are some of the big driver/owner changes? Who has some nice odds to win the cup? Who does Paul like in the Daytona 500? Paul is nice enough to give us some of his great plays! Next, Kiev talks some college basketball betting spots based on shooting percentage, opponent free throw percentage, opponent 3 point percentage and teams that are good and bad on the road. Next, Kiev gets into some huge college basketball games for the weekend with some break downs and FREE PLAYS! After that, Cub Fan Danny comes on to break down some UFC 258 and the guys get into some more plays for your Saturday night excitement! Should you need any games broken down for next week, please tweet us @TheOddsBreakers. Have a wonderful weekend!
NCAA Basketball: Oklahoma vs West Virginia – Iowa vs Michigan State and more!
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College basketball betting can be… frustrating. We’ll use that word. The plethora of opportunity on a daily basis is invigorating, but approach with caution! This is college youth, after all– not exactly the most trustworthy demographic. Onto Thursday’s picks!
Pacific -15 (-110), 1 unit: One of the worst teams in the nation travels to Forest Grove, Oregon to take on the Pacific Tigers in an early 5:00pm EST slot Thursday. Portland has lost 10 straight games and most of them by great margin. A recent showing against lowly San Diego might’ve been their most telling performance, as the Pilots shot and defended well throughout the game but still played from behind from start to finish, losing by 8 points against the 2-7 Toreros. That’s bad. The Tigers haven’t fared too much better, losing their last 4 games and slipping away from West Coast Conference contention. Regardless, this is a perfect set-up for Pacific to get back in the win column and flex whatever muscles they still have left. The 2-4 in-conference Tigers aren’t a great team but they do have excellent defense and a considerably more effective offense than the Pilots. That’s why the line is where it is. I think this is a 20+ point ugly win for Pacific, but it’s just a 1 unit play because, well, this game is pretty gross.
Weber State -1 (-110), 1.5 units: I’m going with the hot team in this contest. Weber State has scored at least 81 points in each of their last 4 games and I don’t think Montana will be able to keep up. If this line were bigger I might consider the dog at home, but the Grizzlies just don’t score with the efficiency or pace of the Wildcats. A square pick, but expect this line to keep rising. Take Weber State at -1.
Eastern Kentucky +12 (-115), 1.15 units: Belmont is riding a hellacious 17 game winning streak heading into tonight against conference rival Eastern Kentucky. The Colonels sit in 3rd in the Ohio Valley, while the Bruins sit comfortably at the top. I think Belmont wins this game– they’re more talented, better coached, and they’re at home. I also think Eastern Kentucky can keep up. The Colonels have had an up and down season, but they’re 10-1 ATS on the road and this is a big spot for them to put in an all-out effort. I’m taking Eastern Kentucky to unsettle the Bruins and cover.
I was 3-0 yesterday and it feels good! As a best practice, make sure you look back at this article later in the day for any injury or “rest” updates, since that seems to be the only way we’re losing wagers in the association. Onto Thursday’s picks!
Rockets win (+110), 1.5 units: Okay this is a great spot to play on the Rockets, for real this time. Houston heads into this contest losers of 3 straight while their foe, the slow-starting Miami Heat, are marching in as winners of 3 straight. The absence of Christian Wood has caused some derision as the Rockets have been one of the worst defenses in the NBA for the past week. Overall they’re still a top 5 squad. Frustrated with recent play, their defense is due for significant positive regression. Losses against the Spurs, Hornets and Pelicans can’t be taken too seriously anyway, since all of those teams have been on fire recently and one of the Rockets’ stars have sat in each of those contests. John Wall is still nursing an ankle injury but he’s probable tonight. Other scoring stars Eric Gordon and Victor Oladipo will play, too. The Heat come in full of injuries of their own, including Avery Bradley, Goran Dragic, Gabe Vincent and Maurice Harkless. I expect the Eastern Conference champs to figure it out eventually, but this is a much better spot for the Rockets to get off the schneid. I want to bet more on this game, but John Wall’s shaky ankle makes me a little conservative. Either way, I think Houston escapes the victor Thursday night.
Celtics -3 (-115), 2 units: This line is going up on Boston and I agree with the move. The Raptors aren’t the same team that Boston whipped in early January, climbing their way back to the 5th spot in the Eastern Conference after a shaky start. Make no mistake about it, Toronto could very well play spoiler come playoff time. That being said, the Celtics are in a fantastic get-right spot tonight. I love to wager on a team when a star player calls their teammates out, especially on a team like the Celtics where no one player has an ego too big. Jaylen Brown vocalized his disappointment after the Celtics were thrashed by Utah Tuesday night. Lately every team is getting punked by the Jazz and the Celtics were on the fifth and final leg of their west-coast road trip, so I’m a little less worried. But Jaylen, who’s having a career year averaging nearly 27 ppg, has the leverage and leadership guile to galvanize this team. Jaylen’s knee still isn’t 100% and that’s something to watch, but I don’t think it’s anything that a little “treatment” can’t solve at this point. The Celtics, who are back at home and need a win, are not a team I’d bet against tonight. Boston wins by 9.
Pacers -3 (-110), 1.5 units: How about them Pistons huh?! Who would have thought it would be the Pistons who humble the star-filled, hyper-emotional Nets two nights ago? Certainly not me, (just ask my bankroll) but let’s not get ahead of ourselves about Detroit. Heading into that game no one thought they’d have a chance, especially after losing Derrick Rose and talks of tanking circulating the franchise. That can motivate any team and these are still pro-players. The Pistons love to play over their heads when overlooked, but tonight they’re running into a desperate, motivated team who certainly won’t take them lightly. The Pacers have lost 4 straight but look who they’ve lost against: a vengeful Nets team, the red-hot Jazz and Pelicans, and the Eastern Conference-leading Bucks. Indiana has also seen regression in key players like Domantas Sabonis and Malcom Brogdon, both of whom have great matchups tonight. Sabonis thrives when he can be physically dominant and he should have no issue against a light-weight Pistons front court. Jerami Grant has been electric for Detroit and could be a difference-maker again, but I like a balanced attack to put Indiana back in the win column. Take the Pacers.
