2-2 yesterday overall as we look to steadily climb our way back to .500 this week in CBB. In this business you have to be bold, so here it goes: I feel really good about today’s picks (gulp). As I cross my fingers and mentally dispel the fallacy of a jinx, here are six hump day bets for your reading and wagering pleasure!

UCONN -2.5 (-110), 1.5 units: It’s go-time for the Huskies if they want to make the tournament, as we’re only a short month away from Selection Sunday. UCONN is bordering on the final 5 teams that would qualify, so this is a huge game for the Huskies. UCONN wasn’t able to pull of the win against Seton Hall Saturday, which was really disappointing at home, so now they need this game even more. When UCONN plays well, they’re absolutely a better team than Providence. The Friars are fighting for position too, but their season is inevitably starting to slip away as they ride the bottom of the Big East Conference. With more to play for, and for a great defense that’s due for positive regression after allowing Seton Hall to sink 50% from the field and from 3-point land Saturday, I expect the Huskies to be very motivated today and take care of business.

UNC Greensboro -1 (-110), 1.5 units: The Spartans got absolutely rocked by the Paladins 2 days ago, losing by an embarrassing 19 points in a game where they were favored. While it’s not all that surprising since Furman has an excellent defense, which they exhibited fully on Monday, the Spartans offense was truly abysmal. UNCG has no other choice but to hit positive regression in today’s game since they only hit 29% from the field and a shocking 11% from beyond the arc… let me repeat, 11%! Like we said, Furman’s defense is good, but the Spartan’s offense isn’t that bad. While not electric, the Spartans average a healthy 73 ppg. We know how tough it is for conference opponents to beat each other twice. It’s even tougher to do when the second game is on the loser’s home court. I think UNC Greensboro bounces back in a big way and takes game 2.

Wofford -4.5 (-110), 2 units: Wofford is easily the best team in the Southern Conference and I like them as a play-on team moving forward. After all, it’s green-light season as we march towards madness! The Terriers recent game against Furman was a great example of where this team should be going. Furman isn’t an easy squad to score against. It was a battle back-n-forth all game, until Wofford turned it up offensively and out-classed the Paladins in the second half. I get that this is an in-conference matchup and Chattanooga will likely play hard tonight, but the Mocs will struggle significantly against Wofford’s efficient playmakers. I expect the Terriers to create some distance early and for it to climb throughout the game. Take Wofford with confidence.

Indiana -3.5 (-105), 1 unit: Yeeaaaa I just really like Indiana! Sorry not sorry. This may be a better spot for Northwestern, but I don’t care. The Big 10 is obviously the best conference in college basketball this year and it makes every game so difficult to predict. It seems like any team can knock off another in the right spot. Regardless, Indiana’s last two wins against Iowa were really impressive. And even in recent disappointing losses, the Hoosiers look like they’re playing harder and better coached. Illinois, for example, was very lucky to escape with a win. I really like the way Archie Miller coaches and I think the momentum they’ve gained carries them to another win. Sorry, Wildcats.

George Mason -9 (-110), 2 units: In all transparency, I can’t say I’ve paid too much attention to the Atlantic 10 Conference this year. That being said, George Mason is absolutely the play tonight. Fordham is horrible offensively and even worse on the road, averaging under 50 ppg. The Patriots are one of the better rebounding teams in their conference and while they’re not a juggernaut on offense, they average a healthy 70+ ppg and 81 ppg in their last 2 games at home. In a considerably better position, I like GMU to pull away in the second half and win this by double digits.

Marquette +11 (-110), 1.5 units: Villanova is obviously one of the top teams in the nation but I haven’t been very impressed by them lately. They seem to be sleepwalking through their conference, and why not? Most nights they can play average basketball and still win. Of course, with a target as big as the one on their backs in a conference they dominate, I expect Big East teams to play them hard. Insert Marquette. It’s likely the Golden Eagles will sit out of the NCAA Tournament this year, but I don’t think that’s a call for another let-down game tonight. Marquette is not a bad team. They rank in the top 100 in most categories and are more than capable of upsetting a giant like Villanova. I think Marquette plays this this game like it’s the championship tonight. I know they’re not great on the road, but after several disappointing conference losses lately, this is a great spot for maximum effort. I think this line is about right and I love that it’s going up to give us more points– I just think Marquette is being undervalued in this spot. Take the dog.

Well I wouldn’t wish that Monday on anyone– the ball didn’t bounce our way but what can ya do? Head down, keep grinding. Here are my picks for Tuesday, February 9. P.S.– I’m officially on my very own, sanctioned revenge tour.

Notre Dame/Duke over 148.5 (-110), 1 unit: That wasn’t a great showing by the Blue Devils at Cameron Indoor on Saturday. They’re a young team and the lack of “crazies” really seemed to matter. Even when they gained momentum, they never kept enough steam to stay hot. The young-ins looked shook, and I was particularly unimpressed with their performance on defense. The Tar Heels have talent, but their offense isn’t as spectacular as it looked Saturday. Notre Dame, while not an elite team this year, is an exceptional offensive team (ranked 17th in adjusted offense on KenPom). They’re full of sharpshooters and they run an efficient offensive scheme. If Duke has even a semblance of the porous defense they showed 3 days ago, the Irish should easily get into the 70s. The Irish have done more against better defenses, that’s for sure. I don’t think Notre Dame will take this game lightly. With a line set on Duke as a 7 point favorite or more, this feels like a sure-fire over.

Dayton +1.5 (-110), 1 unit: The Dayton Flyers got absolutely rocked by VCU in their first contest. VCU’s suffocating defense locked down the Flyers, allowing Dayton to only score a ridiculous 43 points. VCU’s lightning pace overwhelmed the Flyers from the onset and the Rams led for the entire game. Of course, Dayton didn’t help themselves by hitting only 30% from the field and an embarrassing 15% from 3 point land. Positive regression, in every manner, is certainly due here. I don’t know which direction this number will go, but I think Dayton wins this game outright. It’s a phenomenal revenge spot. Make no mistake, VCU is not considerably better than Dayton. This is an Atlantic 10 Conference showdown with an underdog that needs a win to keep pace. I’m on the Flyers.

Penn State +3 (-105), 2 units: I’m not sure why Michigan State is favored but I sure as hell don’t agree with it. No team in the country has faced a more difficult schedule than the Nittany Lions. Yet, even with the #1 adjusted strength of schedule according to KenPom, Penn State has maintained a top 25 offense and top 60 defense. Their ability to crash the offensive board is particularly impressive, something the Spartans will struggle to stop. To say that Michigan State will feel a lot less intimidating to the underdog tonight is a huge understatement. I think the recent success and efficiency of the Penn State offense is for real. Michigan State got a win against Nebraska a days ago, slow clap, but the Nittany Lions are a different animal. I love Penn State to win, so +3 feels like quite a steal.

Arkansas/Kentucky under 143 (-110), 1.5 units: Whoever wins this game will win it by their defense. Kentucky is slightly favored here and they should be– they’re overdue for a win and they’re capable of beating above average opponents. Despite their record, KenPom ranks Kentucky as a top 60 overall team and a top 20 defense. If Kentucky wants to win, they’ll have to slow down Arkansas’ quick tempo or the game could get away from them. This is a good spot for the Wildcats who need to get off the schneid, they’re at home, and I think they’ll be up for the task. I handicapped this total around the mid 130s, so I think this line is entirely too high. I lean Kentucky, and I love the under.

Iowa choked again, Villanova didn’t quite do enough and Loyola Chicago fooled me twice– not the ending to the weekend I wanted but overall, I was 27-23 and +6.50 units on the week. Let’s stay way over .500 in CBB for the next 7 days, starting now!

Quinnipiac -3.5 (-110), 1.5 units: Fairfield didn’t fare well (get it?… you get it) against Quinnipiac a day ago and I don’t see them faring any better today. The Stags are one of most inefficient teams in the country, with below-average defense and a slow-paced, ineffective offense. We saw that clear as day when the Bobcats easily out-paced and out-performed Fairfield, winning by a 15 point margin and holding a lead all game. While Quinnipiac isn’t a stalwart program by any means, they play at a fast tempo and their defense is ranked in the top half of the country according to KenPom. This line is giving the Stags the “double-header respect” and I get it, but it’s wrong. Fairfield really struggles against any team that plays remotely good defense. The Bobcats can beat up on Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference (quite a mouthful, isn’t it?) bottom-dwellers and they’ll win by margin again today.

Eastern Kentucky -9 (-115), 1.5 units: SIU Edwardsville is really bad, and they’re even worse when they play against an above-average conference team. Eastern Kentucky isn’t Belmont, but they play with an aggression that doesn’t bode well for an ultra inefficient team like SIUE. The Colonels rely on turnovers and fast breaks and a lightning pace to defeat their opponents– something that doesn’t work against more experienced and elite teams like we’ve seen in their recent losses, but something that works really well against inferior opponents. This is a good spot for the Colonels to get-right after 2 recent losses, and they need to keep winning to stay competitive in the Ohio Valley. I like Eastern Kentucky to cover and this line is rising– get on it while you can.

UNC Greensboro +4 (-105), 1 unit: I’m taking a shot at UNC Greensboro because I like this matchup for the Spartans. UNCG is one of the best teams in the country at defending the 3 point shot, ranking 16th according to Haslametrics. Furman relies heavily on 3 pointers and have little refrain from launching it beyond the arc. This should be a testy in-conference battle, which makes me want to favor a better defense before a better offense. I love that UNC Greensboro is getting points in a game they could easily win. Give me the “dog” and the considerably better defensive unit.

Miami +10 (-110), 1.5 units: Even in an OT loss, I was really impressed by the way Miami played Saturday against ACC rival Virginia Tech. When in-sync, the Hurricanes are a dangerous team. That was a PRIME spot for the Hokies and still, Tech needed a last second 3-pointer to send the game to overtime. UNC is coming off a huge win Saturday in the “greatest rivalry in sports” against Duke. It was a valiant effort on all sides of the ball and they probably should’ve won by more (the officiating was horrendous at the end, giving Duke more of a chance than they deserved). That makes tonight’s game against the ‘Canes a huge let-down spot for the Tar Heels. This is too many points for a team this feisty, and I think Miami has a shot to get an upset win. Don’t be shocked it it happens.

Nebraska +11.5 (-110), 1 unit: Minnesota is a decent team but should they be valued by this much? The Cornhuskers are the bottom dweller of the Big 10 and they’ve had a tough year with COVID, but I think they’re getting a bit undervalued. After a long layoff, they returned to the hardwood and lost to Michigan State by 10. Not a great look, but coming back after a 4 week break is no easy feat. If this was their first game back I’d favor Minnesota, but Nebraska has played respectably against conference foes like Michigan State, Indiana, and even Michigan. I have to take a bet like this because I just don’t think it’s the right number. Minnesota -8.5 sounds right to me, so I’m on the dog.

Iowa -3 (-110), 1.5 units: I was leaning the Indiana side here today, I just love the way they play for their coach, but it was Indiana who started the Hawkeyes’ recent slump. The Hoosiers beat Iowa convincingly 2 weeks ago, and the Hawkeyes now find themselves losers of 3 of their last 4. Iowa isn’t as good as many people think, but they’re much better than how they’ve played as of late. When a conference foe beats you at home and you expect big things for your season, there is no greater motivation than getting revenge at their home court. The Hoosiers aren’t a team that lays down for anyone, so it won’t be easy, but I think Garza plays with fire and the Hawkeyes get off the schneid. They need to. This line doesn’t scare me either since the way college games are played right now, with 26 fouls at the end of every game, only increases the chance that they’ll cover. Iowa will maintain a second half lead and finish the game at the foul line.

Loyola Chicago -18.5 (-105), 1 unit: Well this bet didn’t work yesterday but I’m going right back to the well and putting another unit on the Ramblers to blow out Evansville. The underdog played admirably and stayed in the game throughout the first and second halves, but Loyola Chicago started to pull away and flex its muscles late in the second half, finishing the game with a convincing 13 point win. I expect them to carry that momentum into this contest and obliterate the Purple Aces. It’s really hard to stay competitive with a great team like Loyola Chicago once. It’s really, really hard to do it twice. I love that I get this game at a reduced price and a reduced number, too. Go Ramblers! If you want to read a deeper analysis of these teams, check out my post on this game yesterday.

Villanova -13.5 (-110), 1 unit: Time for the Wildcats to flex their muscle. Saint Joe’s isn’t the worst team in college basketball, but Villanova’s recent loss to SJU was a wake-up call. The 3rd ranked Wildcats are one of the most consistent teams in the country. Equipped with great coaching and a top 40 defense, Nova may not be able to keep up with Baylor and Gonzaga but they should be one of the final teams to compete in March. Georgetown is a solid enough team when they play well but they should have real issues stopping the 5th best adjusted offense in the nation (according to KenPom) today. I expect the Wildcats to be supremely motivated and prove their standing on top of the Big East Conference. This line is right, but I think it’s a 20 point win for Nova.