We have a great show for you today! 6-7 in College Football, 7-3 in the NFL and 5-1 in College Basketball over the weekend. First, Kiev recaps the weekend in the NCAA & the NFL. Who disappointed and who exceeded expectations? Next, Kiev recaps some college football and gets into some misleading final scores and motivational spots for week 15. Then, we talk about some misleading final scores in the NFL and some more motivational spots. What was real and what was garbage time? Next, Kiev gives out a free College Football play for week 15b! Then, D-Nasty comes on to talk some fantasy football. Who are the key injuries? Who are we picking up on waivers? Who is trending up for next weekend and who will be the biggest turkey? Finally we give out a nasty sleeper to help you win your week!
Should you need a sports book please visit jazzsports.ag and use the promo code, “Oddsbreakers” to get a 50% sign up bonus! Terms, conditions and location apply.
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This game is an interesting one. The Cardinals have been free falling down the standings since that amazing catch and game winner vs the Bills. I think that when this happens, it is the perfect time to buy on a team. The Giants are in the exact opposite position winning their last 4 games in a row. Just 1 of those teams has a winning record and its time for the fade train. Starting with my power ratings, I have the Cardinals still 6 points better on a neutral field and I do not think that we can give the Giants much of a home field advantage here. As far as yards per play, Arizona has a net .8 yards per play advantage. Being that Colt McCoy most likely to be the starting quarterback for the Giants here, I like AZ.
Arizona -2.5 – 2.5 star premium shared play
Houston vs Chicago PK O/U 45
I just saw a trend on Killer sports about the Chicago bears and game totals. Since 2005 when the Bears have had less than 14 days of rest, the line is less than +3, they were not a +2 or larger dog the previous game, their time of possession is greater than 24 minutes and they face a team that gets more than 64% of their first downs from the pass. The Bears are 32-0 to the OVER. Now I like killer sports and everything but sometimes I think they go a little to far with these situations. Albeit all that, I still like the over in this game. The Bears are a desparate team and they are throwing the ball all over the place meaning they are prone for turnovers and possibly some big scores. Now we know that Houston has a very good offense being top 3 in yards per play at 6.3. Their defense is bottom 4 at 6 yards per play. The Bears are a dismal 4.8 yards per play on offense but they are at home and I expect some points to be scores. They also don’t have that great defense allowing an average 5.4 yards per play. In the Bears last 5 games, they have allowed an average of 28.8 points per game and I think that the Texans will score in the 20s for sure if not more than that.
Bears vs Houston over 45 – 2 star premium shared play
Refuse to lose 6pt teaser – 7-6 for the year: Packers to 1.5 with Tampa Bay to .5 – Packers have been on fire for teasers and the Bucs coming off the bye.
Bow to the gambling gods parlay 2-9 this year Pays 24-1. LAST ONE OF THE FOOTBALL SEASON – ALL NCAA SPREADS: Illinois +14.5-110, Wake Forest, +2-110, West Virginia +14-110, Baylor +4.5 -110, Arkansas +31.5 -110
This game is huge, and It is essentially for who will be in the Mountain West championship game. Unfortunately for San Jose State, this was supposed to be a home game and now will be played at Sam Boyd Stadium due to Santa Clara’s covid protocols. Even though this game is in the state of Nevada, there won’t be much of a home field advantage without a bunch of fans. I am mad at myself for not betting enough San Jose State games this year but what I will say that this team has really impressed me. San Jose State is undefeated and 3 years ago you would have never guessed that. These 2 teams actually have a lot in common. Both teams are +3 turnover ratio, both teams are about 1.5 to 1.6 positive net yards per play, and both teams haven’t faced Boise State. The schedules for these teams have been really similar and the only edge that I found is that San Jose State is a little more efficient on defense allowing 20.4 yards per point to Nevada’s 16.5. Lastly, I have to look at these teams as a what have you done for me lately scenario. Nevada was out-gained by Fresno State last week while winning the game and Nevada lost the week before at Hawaii. San Jose State’s last 2 games included a convincing win at Hawaii and a double digit win vs UNLV. Going to go with San Jose State.
San Jose State -2.5 – 2 star premium shared play
North Carolina vs Miami -3 O/U 66.5
This one is simple to me and I am going to keep this short. Both of these teams have prolific offenses and great QBs. Sam Howell of UNC is averaging 42 points per game, 68% completion and 26-6 TD to Int Ratio and 1.85 yards per play. Miami’s D’Eriq King averages 35 points per game, 64% completion and 20-4 TD to interception ratio at .9 yards per play. UNC has the better offense and Miami has the better defense. I have both teams power rated equally. This game is in Miami but I think you will see a ton of points here in a shootout. UNC averages a 25.5 seconds per play and I think that would be lower if they weren’t blowing out so many teams and Miami averages 23.25 seconds per play which is pretty fast themselves. I think this is going to be a fun ame to watch and I am definitely on the over here and I like it to 69.
Over 66.5 – 2 star premium shared play
Wisconsin vs Iowa +1.5 O/U 43.5
This is the lowest price you might get to buy Wisconsin this year.
Their last 2 games were losses where they out-gained their opponents by over 100 yards each.
Danny Davis should be back for Wisconsin giving Graham Mertz some more options to throw the football.
Wisconsin Center Kayden Lyles is most likely out this game but they at least have a week to get the back up rolling.
Iowa has been playing some solid football since their first 2 games.
Spencer Petras has emerged into a pretty good quarterback when he looked lost in the beginning.
Petras is young and has weaknesses of throwing picks.
My power ratings have Wisconsin winning this game by 2 points.
Wisconsin has beaten Iowa 7 out of their last 8 games.
Big spot for Sconnie and you won’t get value like this on them over the next year or so in my opinion
We have a fantastic show for you today! Adam Burke @skatingtripods from ATS.io and Bangthebook.com comes on to break down some College and NFL games and plays! First, Kiev gives us an update on where he stands in the College and NFL football season. Next, Adam comes on and the guys go right into talking about their top 5 beers rather than sports. After about 39:00 minutes into the pod, the guys talk about home court advantage in Basketball. Does it matter as much to the teams that do not have big crowds anyways? Next, Adam and Kiev break down some College and NFL football games with some break downs and plays. Adam is having a great NFL at the Circa Sports contest currently in the top 100 out of over 3000 entries. Then, Kiev gives out his REFUSE TO LOSE teaser as well as his BOW TO THE GAMBLING GODS Parlay for fun that pays out 24-1 this week. Finally, Kiev gets into sharp line movements for the weekend in both College Football and the NFL.
NFL: Indianapolis vs Las Vegas – Pittsburgh at Buffalo and More!
NCAA: Wisconsin vs Iowa – Nevada vs San Jose State – North Carolina vs Miami and more!
Should you need a sportsbook please visit betonline.ag and use the promo code, “Odds200” to get a 200% sign up bonus!!!! Terms, conditions and location apply.
For only 24.99 a month become an ODDSBREAKER’S MEMBER and gain access to all premium picks BEFORE the line moves please visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop!
