Saturday at 3:30pm the Nebraska Cornhuskers host the Minnesota Golden Gophers. We will see two Freshman Quarterbacks squaring off in Lincoln. Both teams coming in off losses, Gophers started 3-0 and have dropped the last 3. Nebraska, on the other hand, is winless on the year at 0-6. Nebraska let one slip last week as they were in perfect position to get that first victory but let Northwestern score a late TD and go on to win in OT. The Gophers played the Buckeyes tough and had a shot to take a 4th quarter lead but would fade late. I can’t see any reason the Cornhuskers should be a favorite, freshman QB, 1st-year coach and a team with a knack for losing (10 straight). The Gophers look like they’ve made the transition to a competitive Big 10 team, though they haven’t notched a conference win. Nebraska has got to feel like this is one of their best shots to get a conference win and should give a great effort in front of the home crowd. I just don’t think they are as battle-tested as Minnesota and will see equal effort from the Gophers to grab a much-desired conference win. I definitely believe Nebraska has the talent to win I just am not convinced they can cover, the number sits at 5 and I like the Gophers big time in this Spot.
CFB Play of the day: Minnesota Golden Gophers +5
The King makes his home debut tonight in LA against the Houston Rockets. you can watch the game on ESPN and tips at 10:30pm. NBA is hard to predict sides on a daily bases and it shows in our last 2 Free Plays. Tonight we are going to focus on the total as I believe that’s the most profitable way to approach the NBA night to night. The total is at 235 and doesn’t look to be moving. I think this is the best way to unveil the latest version of the Lake Show with neither team playing much defense. Rockets allowed 131 in their home opener, The Lakers let up 128. They both have the ability to score and I think we’ll see plenty of points in primetime. I think we should hit the number about halfway through the 4th quarter, With Harden and LBJ putting on a show.
TGIF as well head into a great weekend of sports. Quick recap of Wednesdays free pick, I gave out Mavs +1.5 the line closed at Mavs -1.5. The suns jumped out early and never looked back. Booker had 35 points in 33 minutes and made 6 three pointers in a “limited” role (lol). Mavs just didn’t have the fire power as Smith and Doncic combined for 1 made three. Suns shot 19-34 from beyond the arc as Booker picked up right where he left off, 21-point loss is tough after we started off so great but let’s get it back today. Which leads me to, the Pacers/Bucks match-up. Both teams opened their seasons with victories. Pacers dominated Memphis at home 111-83, they spread the ball well as 7 players scored in double digits while Myles Turner added 8 points and 8 rebounds. The Bucks opener went a little different as the opened up a 13 point 1st quarter lead that they carried to halftime. Hornets went to a smaller lineup and actually took the lead in the final minute but Milwaukee prevailed 113-112. I was there Wednesday and Giannis looked good dropping 25 but failed to connect from 3, Khris Middleton Shot 50% and scored 19, the Bucks as a team shot near 50% from inside the arc and 75% from the free throw line which is middle of the row as far as league average goes but Indiana is off to a league worse 58.3% from the Line. I’m anticipating a back and forth contest between these two divisional foes. The Bucks still show a weakness at guarding the perimeter and Pacers seem to have the ball moving on offense; I think the Pacers have gotten a lot better over the off-season and specifically within the division. If the can hit the freebies they will have a good chance of winning and no problem covering, take the points in this one.
Free Pick of the Day: Indiana Pacers +3.5
Twitter: @BobbyBetsATS
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Iowa coming in at 5-1 ATS and Maryland 4-2. So I have this game as an 8.5 in my power ratings. I hit this line early at +13. Maryland is 4-2 against the spread this year and has a very slight net yards per play edge in this one with both teams around 6 yards per play and defense giving up around 4.5. What I like here about Maryland is that they had a slightly harder schedule playing Texas, Temple and Michigan as their hard games while Iowa has played Iowa State (early), Wisconsin and Minnesota. This is similar to the Air force bet that we made taking the dog when it was more than 20% of the total.
Maryland +10
NC State vs Clemson -16 O/U 55.5 – I have Clemson by 18 hear so I am not super excited about taking a side here. One matchup I will be looking at is if NC State can stop the run when they are averaging 3.7 yards per run allowed on Defense and if they can have the time to pass the ball against a more of a suspect Clemson pass D that allowed 250 yards against Syracuse and 430 yards against Kellen Mond from Texas A & M…
No Play but lean NC State
Fresno State vs New Mexico – Premium
Georgia State vs Arkansas State – Premium
Kansas vs Texas Tech – Premium
Buffalo vs Toledo + 1.5 O/U 66
Buffalo is 5-2 ATS and Toledo is 2-4 this year. Since Lance Leopold arrived last year they are a 3rd best 14-5 ATS. I really do not see why Buffalo opened up at +3 in this game. They have a .7 yards net yards per play advantage here and they give up less than 3.9 yards per run while Toledo gives up 5.3 yards per play. Both schedules have been similair Maybe this spread opened up like this because how fast Toledo plays but I think Buffalo can control this game by pounding the football with Kevin Marks and Jarret Patterson. Of course the Tyree Jackson to Anthony Johnson combination is there if needed.
Buffalo +1.5 and ML
Oklahoma vs TCU +7.5 O/U 61
So I love this spot here. Both teams have not been performing well against the spread with TCU at 1-4-1 and Oklahoma at 2-4. Now Oklahoma is coming off a Bye week and a loss right before that and that is why I like this spot so much.. Last week these kids watched 4 top 10 teams go down and almost 6 of them actually. These kids know that they still have a legitimate shot at the NCAA playoffs and are now rested up for it. TCU on the other hand had a bad loss against a pretty good Texas Tech team on their second string QB. Oklahoma is number 1 in yards per play at 8.9 yards and that is a half yard higher than 2nd play Bama. Oklahoma has over 3 yards per play more then what their defense gives up per game and outscores their opponents by 21 points. TCU is at 5.6 yards per play and gives up 4.6 outscoring their opponents by about 8 points. This spread is wrong and Oklahoma should be favored by over 10
Oklahoma -7.5 large
Wake Forest vs Florida State -10.5 O/U 60
So the question here to me is which Florida State home team shows up here? The one that got smoked by Virginia Tech or the one that should have beaten Miami outright. What I am am looking at here is their last 3 games. Instead of looking at their bad start I see them averaging 31 points per game the last 3 games and 5.4 yards per play at home. Wake forest on the other hand is the fastest playing team in Football averaging 91 plays per game. Wake Forest still averages over 32 points per game and 5.2 yards per play even after only scoring 3 points vs Clemson 2 weeks ago. Another glaring thing is that they have the 12th worst defense in the league allowing 6.7 yards per play and 37 points per game. Wake forest is also now very banged up on Defense. This O/U is way too small at 60 points and should be around 66 or 67.
Florida State over 60
Oregon vs Washington State -2.5 O/U 66.5 (I have this game at a pickem)
Oregon had a huge win last week vs Washington and that doesn’t go unnoticed, but what also doesn’t go unnoticed is the let down spot the next week. I like handicapping WASU games because you can pretty much throw out how well the other team defends the run. This is kinda sad against the run because Oregon averages 3.2 yards per run allowed on defense but a more suspect 8.1 yards per passing attempt. Oregon has had only 1 road game so far this year against Cal. Washington State allows only 4.2 yards per play at home meaning they can stop both the run and he pass. I think WaSu wins by at least 4 in a let down and travel spot.
Colorado vs Washington -15 O/U 51.5
Playing the spot where Colorado has a great shot to still win the Pac 12 and Washington’s hopes and dreams of Playoffs were defeated last week vs Oregon. I also think Travon McMillen might have some success running the ball vs this Huskies defense after what was shown last week..
Colorado +15
Michigan vs Michigan State +7.5 O/U 41.5 (huge jump) I have this as Michigan -5 but waiting to play it.
North Texas vs UAB +1 O/U 54 – I have this game as close to a pickem
4. Do you have any games you would like to discuss?
5. Do you have a free pick for our listeners?
Fresno State +14.5 vs New Mexico
Sharp Line Movement:
Temple hosting Cincinnati at -3.5
Auburn vs Ole Miss to -4 from -2.5
Dual Action on Buffalo to -1.5 from +3.0
Florida Atlantic at Marshall to -3 from PK
Colorado at Washington to +15 from +17
Tennessee hosting Bama at +29
Coastal Carolina at Umass to +2.5 from +3.5
Missouri hosting Memphis from -7 to -9.5
Cal from -7 to -7.5 at Oregon State
East Carolina +25.5 to +21 hosting Central Florida – I hit this at +25.5 but couldn’t give it out on time
Southern Miss -16 to -17.5 hosting UTSA
New Mexico from +16.5 to +13.5 hosting Fresno State over 40% difference
Old Dominion +5 to +4.5 at Western Kentucky
N Texas at UAB at +1
San Diego State -27 to -28 hosting San Jose State
Totals:
Colorado State vs Boise from 57 to 62
Michigan vs Michigan State under from 47.5 to 41.5 Huge but no value now
Cincinnati vs Temple over 48.5
Utah State vs Wyoming under from 55 to 52 – still some value
Charlotte vs Middle Tennessee state under form 52.5 to 49.5 a 59% difference
Colorado vs Washington Under 51.5 a 50% point difference between ticket count and money
Minnesota vs Nebraska under 56 a 55% difference wow
Miss State vs LSU over 44.5
N Texas vs UAB over from 52 to 54.5
NFL Plays:
New England vs Chicago +3.5
Nothing like a home dog? Well I don’t mind home dogs when they have one of the top defenses in the league! Bears are still a top 3 sack defense and top 10 in yards even after that stinker they had in Miami this week. Miami is the worst in sack defense in 1.2 per game. from a net yards per game perspective, Chicago has new England by 11 yards. Now I know Tom Brady has acquired more weapons in Josh Gordan and Julian Edelman is back but I don’t think that will make up for the fact that Chicago is coming off a loss and ready to capitalize. This game is going to depend on free saftey Adrian Amos over the top of Gronk as well as a pass Rush allowing less than 2.5 seconds for Brady to throw. I also think you would need to put a spy on James white with Danny Trevathan. If that turns out the bears win this one outright.
Chicago +3.5
Denver vs Arizona +1 O/U 42
Well this is an ugly game. Looking at how bad these offenses are you would think to bet the under for sure. When you look at how bad these defenses are you would think to bet the over. Both defenses are actually in the bottom 7 when it comes to total yards with Denver giving up 402 and Arizona giving up 394 . One thing that is missing from these stats that we found for this Handicap is strength of schedule. Both teams have played very good offenses. The Cardinals have played the Rams, the Seahawks, the Redskins and the Vikings while the Broncos have played the Seahawks, the Ravens, the Chiefs and the Rams. Both teams opponents have averaged 6.1 yards per play on offense which is well above the average. That is a key to this handicap. The defenses are actually better than they have shown. The other key to this handicap is that both teams have very banged up offensive lines. The only way this game goes over is if these QBs throw a bunch of pick 6s or turn the ball over and give up field position.
Just like that we moved on shout-out to the Vikings who came through in a big way to move us into week 7 of the survivor pool. Week 7 gets a little tougher than previous weeks simply because of bye weeks. I am confident we can move onto to Week 8.Please make sure to follow me on Twitter @titotalkssports
Popular choices
Colts -7.5 against the Bills
Chargers -6.5 vs Titans
LA Rams -9.5 at San Francisco
Colts
You Look at the Colts and say no way. They are coming off their 4th straight loss and Andrew Luck hasn’t looked impressive with a 16/8 TD to interception rate. The Bills have done one thing well consistently all season and that is play defense. They are currently ranked in the top 10. They have forced 13 turnover this season which doesn’t bode well for a Colts team that has committed 13 turnovers. Derek Anderson will be starting this game and is 20-27 career starter who played under his former coach for many years. Anderson has nothing to lose since last week he was just hanging at home with the kids. However, the Colts get an X-Factor back this week the return of TY Hilton. Luck is so much more comfortable with TY on the field and I expect him to air it out a bit. The Colts should get it done with all that being said. Let’s be real the Colts know if they ever needed to win a game it’s this one. I am unsure if they cover, but they will win here I have them in a teaser or two to be completely honest.
Chargers
Anytime time a team is almost a full touchdown favorite you have to atleast consider them in your survivor pool.However this is a play I would avoid at all cost. Tennessee is a model of inconsistency. They have beaten Jacksonville, the defending Super Bowl Champion Eagles and Houston. Marcus Mariota looks like he is getting healthier every week and can see this as a team he gets his teammates up for.Do I expect an upset no. However if it happened I wouldn’t be surprised.I would avoid completely. The Chargers have a bye week on deck and can see them thinking about all their vacation plans and the time away from football
Rams
We save the best for last the LA Rams. The Rams go into San Franciscoas 9.5 point favorites with a chance to prove they are the cream of the crop in all of California. I expect a huge day for Goff as the 49ers are suspect against the pass. Sean McVay will have the team ready and they will roll as the new kings of Cali. Also the 49ers are in a tough spot after they blew a lead on the road to Aaron Rodgers in a game which they feel they should have won. All in on the LA Rams.
The OddsBreakers welcome back Kyle Hunter @kylehunterpicks from Huntersportspicks.com to break down college football week 8! Kiev O’Neil @thepublicdog then goes into the sharp line movements as well as some NFL week 7!
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Its been some time since I have had time to post. The last post was on the 8th, but some picks were sent out on Twitter. You can follow me @U2remdm on Twitter and I almost always tag @theoddsbreakers in my NHL posts.
RECAP
For time sake, I will not go through each game but here were the results:
10/8 – 2-2
10/11 – 6-3-1 – Including two BAD BEATS. Would have been nice to pick up those other two W’s tho.
10/13 – 1-7 – Bad night. Of the 7 losses, 3 were in OT and one in a SO. Could have just as easily been 5-3.
10/15 – 4-0 Bounced back nicely by sweeping the board.
10/16 – 3-3 So so night. We have Vancouver as a huge dog winning outright. Winnipeg blew a 4-1 lead. Otherwise this could have been a great night.
TOTALS: 16-15-1 Since the 8th. As mentioned, there were lots of bad beats, OT’s, and SO’s. We are on the right track. Those “coin flip” games will begin to fall our way.
10/17/18 NHL
New York Rangers @ Wachington Capitals
NYR are off a home win last night against the Avs, a game they should have lost, IMO. They travel to Washington to take on the Capitals. Washington has been off since their loss to Toronto on the 13th. They have had a few days to think about that loss. There’s a chance they come out flat in this game. Even if they do, I look for them to get back to winning and I see them winning tonight 4-1. Taking Washington PL. Also taking the Under 6.
Saint Louis Blues @ Montreal Canadians
St. Louis travels the Canada to take on Montreal. They are coming off a home loss to the Ducks on the 14th. The Canadians, on the other hand are riding high. They are off a 7-3 home win against the Red Wings on the 15th. Both teams have been off a couple days and are going to be itching to get back at it. Vegas has them pretty evenly matched in what is basically a pick ’em game. I think the Canadians have a clear advantage and think they will win, possibly by 2+ goals. Taking Montreal.
Boston Bruins @ Calgary Flames
The Bruins are taking on the Flames, in Calgary. Neither team has been in action since the 13th, where the Bruins had a home win, 8-2 vs the Red Wings. And the Flames had a road OT win in Colorado. In this game they are also evenly matched. I like the Over 6 goals here. And in a seemingly evenly matched game, I will take the home team, Calgary to get it done tonight.
New York Islanders @ Anaheim Ducks
New York was last in action on the 13th, losing to Nashville. Anaheim was last on the ice on the 14th, beating the Blues. They square off in Anaheim tonight. I look for both teams to be a little rusty. They are evenly matched, with the Ducks having the edge at goalie. I don’t see a lot of scoring in this match-up, so I like the Under 6 goals. I am also taking Anaheim ML. When going “by the numbers” home teams are 7-2 this season and I look for that trend to continue.
By The Numbers
Season to date, using our 0-12 scale, overall you would be 33-26 .5593 pct. However, if you just take the HOME teams on that same scale, season to date you are 25-11 .6944 pct. That is not the reason that I am riding with all the home teams tonight, but it definitely makes me more comfortable knowing that the numbers back it up. GL2ALL
Remember, follow me on Twitter for Picks and Plays (especially when there is little time to break down the games). @U2remdm
Tip off week continues today with 10 games. Quick recap of yesterday’s free pick, Under 209 in the Boston/Philadelphia game was the pick I gave out. The number closed at 211, 211.5 depending on where you bet and this ended up being a stress free under as it was never in doubt. The two teams only combined for 50 or more points in one quarter, we cleared the under by 22 no problem. Tonight we have an ESPN double header, New Orleans @ Houston 7pm and Dallas @ Phoenix 10:30pm. I’d like to focus on the latter game
October 18th, 8:20pm, State Farm Stadium – Glendale, AZ
This Thursday we go back to the good old fashioned Thursday Night Football: two bad teams facing off to prove who sucks the least.
The Denver Broncos travel to Arizona with a 4-game losing streak after coming up short vs the powerhouse Rams in week 6. Although Case Keenum hasn’t continued his success from Minnesota and almost got benched last week, the Broncos still rank 10th in offensive yards per game due to a balanced running attack and a deep receiving core. The offensive production has been above average but the points haven’t been there, thanks in part to a 25th ranked red-zone offense.
Arizona didn’t look horrible against the Vikings but Minnesota proved they were too much to handle. Arizona’s defense has played relatively well this season and has been the only positive thing for the 1-5 team. Their defense ranks 8th in ypg allowed and 13th in ppg allowed. Their offense however is the 31st in points per game and 32nd in yards per game. 2016 Fantasy monster David Johnson hasn’t showed up the way that Arizona expected when they signed him to a contract extension this summer. To further pound on Arizona’s offensive woes, the Cardinals have scored more than 17 points just once this season (thanks to a defensive touchdown) and it was against Swiss cheese defense San Francisco who ranks 29th in points allowed per game.
Von Miller has come out and not only said that this game is a must win, but he has guaranteed a Denver victory. That alone would have me sold.
The verdict:
Denver ML: I’m taking Denver in this game and they are currently -1.5 (-110) or Moneyline (-120). I’d rather pay some money on the juice than get burned by the spread, so I’ll take the Denver straight up.
Under 41.5: As for the 26th and 31st ranked scoring offenses in the league, we’ll get some understorms indoors.
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