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College Football Week 15 Motivational Spots

By
Kiev O'Neil
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Overweight man napping on couch at home in front of TV at night

Let down spots:

Indiana at Purdue after beating Wisconsin.  Thought Tom Allen was going to have a heart attack looking at him celebrate.

New Mexico is in a let down vs Fresno State after securing their first win against Wyoming.

Stanford in a let down spot vs Oregon State after beating Washington.

TCU is in a let down spot vs LA tech after beating Oklahoma State straight up.

Akron vs Buffalo after winning a game.

Oklahoma State has nothing huge to play for vs Baylor this week.

Oklahoma might be looking past West Virginia to Iowa State.   Their game is essentially meaningless.

Coastal Carolina is in a let down spot at Troy after beating BYU.  That’s a juicy one.

Get up spots:

Anyone that hasn’t won a game.  UNLV, Louisiana Monroe, NIU, UMass, Bowling Green, FIU, Kansas and Vanderbilt.

Wisconsin at Iowa has been embarrassed and needs this one.

Purdue vs Indiana rivalry game.

Look ahead spots:

Alabama could be looking past Arkansas to Florida.

Coastal Carolina looking past Troy to Louisiana is very possible.  Sandwich spot.

Florida could look past LSU to Alabama.

Oklahoma lookin past West Virginia is very possible due to them being in the Big 12 championship game due to OK State’s loss.

 

 

 

 

College Football Week 14 Misleading Final Scores

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

North Texas out-gained LA Tech 386 to 341 yet lost 42-31 – A 1-1 turnover ratio was even but 11-4 penalty ratio killed them.

Appalachian State out-gained Louisiana 290 to 227 yet lost 24-21.  A 3-0 turnover ratio and 2 missed FGs really hurt.

Wisconsin out-gained Indiana 342 to 217 yet lost 14-6.   2-1 turnover ratio and an 8-1 penalty ratio killed them bad.

Bowling Green out-gained Akron 295 to 282 yet lost 31-3.  A 3-0 turnover ratio killed them.

Georgia Tech out-gained NC State 412 to 397 yet lost 23-13. Even turnovers but a 12-7 penalty ratio and bad efficiency killed them.

BYU out-gained Coastal Carolina 405 to 366 yet lost 22-17.  Some of those yards were the huge pass on that last drive and a 2-1 turnover ratio killed BYU.

Colorado State out-gained San Diego State 265 to 247 yet lost 29-17.  2-0 turnover ratio hurt.

Clemson only out-gained Virginia Tech 433 to 333 yet won 45-10.   A 1-3 turnover ratio helped a lot.

Baylor out-gained Oklahoma 288-269 yet lost 27-14.  A 2-1 turnover ratio hurt them.

Fresno State out-gained Nevada 599 to 416 yet lost 37-26.   They also won the turnover battle 2-3.  Horrible red zone efficiency did them in.

ASU out-gained UCLA 442 to 363 yet lost 25-18.  A 2-0 turnover ratio and 12 to 5 penalty ratio broke them.

Wyoming out-gained New Mexico 283 to 223 yet lost 17-16.  3-2 turnover ratio hurt.

NFL Week 14 Fantasy Football

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

Key Injuries:

DJ Moore WR – Has Covid.

Darrell Henderson RB – Banged up knee.

Curtis Samuel WR – Covid

Antonio Gibson RB – Toe injury.

Frank Gore RB – Concussion

CMC Might be back this week!

Waiver Wire:

Cam Akers RB only owned in 53% of leagues had most of the work and did well.  Must own.

Robbie Anderson WR – For Carolina Covid situations

Jalen Hurts QB – Might start over Wentz

Ty Johnson RB – With Frank Gore banged up he banged in 2 TDs

Richard Higgens WR – Had a monster day with 9 Targets 95 yards and a TD

Alfred Morris RB – Giants used him a lot last week and he had a TD.

Will Dissly TE – Good matchup this week.

Chad Hanson WR – When cooks went out he went and got 100 yards

Cole Kmet TE – Had 7 targets and a TD for the Bears.

James O’Shaughnessy – TE had 6 targets.

Logan Thomas TE – 90 yards

Dawson Knox TE – touchdown this week.  Last Week as well.

Gerald Everette TE – Had 7 targets for the Rams and could be a good pickup.

Non-starters trending up for Week 14:

TY Hilton WR – vs the Raiders D.  Had 11 Targets last week.

Giovani Bernard RB – vs Dallas’s poor defense.

David Montgomery RB – vs Houston’s run D.  Maybe Nagy will be fired by then.

Ezekiel Elliot RB – vs that bad Bengals D.

Breshard Perriman WR – vs Seattle’s Pass D.

Will Dissley TE – Jets are the worst team vs Tight ends.

Mark Andrews TE – Browns are the second worst against Tight ends.

Mike Williams WR – has a good matchup vs the Falcons Pass D.

James O’Shaughnessy TE – Good matchup vs the Titans.

Chris Godwin WR – vs Minnesota’s bad pass D.

Tyler Boyd WR – Even though Allen or Finley is throwing for the Bengals most likely, Dallas’s D is bad.

Justin Jefferson WR – vs Tampa’s bad Pass D.

Busts:

Devon Singletary RB – vs Pittsburgh’s top run D.

Damien Harris RB – vs Rams Run D.

Antonio Gibson RB – vs the Niners run D.

Miles Sanders RB – vs the Saints Run D.

Michael Thomas WR – vs a desperate Philly D.

Devontae Booker/Josh Jacobs RBs vs Indianapolis’s Run D.

Cam Newton QB – vs the Rams

Nasty Sleeper:

TY Hilton – Colts will be wanting to put up some points vs the Raiders

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Podcast 74 – 20 – NFL Week 13 and NCAA Week 14 Recap and Betting Spots – Fantasy Football Week 14 – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-
Podcast Clean
The OddsBreakers Sports

We have a great show for you today!  First, Kiev recaps the weekend in the NCAA & the NFL.  Who disappointed and who exceeded expectations?  Next, Kiev recaps some college football and gets into some misleading final scores and motivational spots for week 14.  Then, we talk about some misleading final scores in the NFL and some more motivational spots.  What was real and what was garbage time?  Next, Kiev gives out a free College Football play for week 15!  Then, D-Nasty comes on to talk some fantasy football.  Who are the key injuries?  Who are we picking up on waivers?   Who is trending up for next weekend and who will be the biggest turkey?  Finally we give out a nasty sleeper to help you win your week!

#Sportsbetting #Gamblingtwitter #NCAA #NFL #UFC #Horseracing

Should you need a sports book please visit jazzsports.ag and use the promo code, “Oddsbreakers” to get a 50% sign up bonus!  Terms, conditions and location apply.

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Better Odds Sports Betting 12/4/20

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

Click here to watch and subscribe!

 

We discuss Gonzaga vs Baylor for hoops!   College Football – BYU Coastal Carolina and Texas A&M vs Auburn.   NFL – LA Rams vs Arizona and Buffalo vs San Francisco!

NFL Week 13 Free Plays, Teaser and Parlay

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

New England vs LA Chargers PK O/U 46 – 

The Patriots some how keep skating by.  This Cam Newton led team is a -.4 yards per play and have had some lucky bounces.  The Patriots are riddled with Injuries including their best WR Edelman, their best O-lineman in Wynn, and a key runningback in Burkhead.  The Chargers had some tough injuries but they are getting heathier with Eckler now being back and Bosa now healthy.   The Patriots are weak against through the air allowing 8 yards per pass while the Chargers seem to toss the Rock pretty well.  I think this is a spot where Anthony Lynn will finally get a decent win at home.

LA Chargers -1 – 1.5 star premium shared play

Indianapolis vs Houston +3 O/U 51 – 

This is a perception play.  The Texans scored a ton of points against a pathetic Lions defense on Thanksgiving and the Colts gave up a ton of points against the Titans.  No better time in my opinion to look at the total here.  Even after last week’s debacle, we must not forget that the Colts are a top 5 defense that just had some hiccups vs some desparately good teams in Green Bay and Tennessee.  Now we do know that the Texans defense is not good at all but they at least held teams to 25 points or less the last 4 games and are now playing at home.  JJ Watt has this defense fired up.   The Will Fuller suspension will be a massive problem for the Texans when trying to stretch out the field and I think there is a chance that they will not score many points at all this game.  Indi has a good offense but Phillip Rivers on the road is certainly something to worry about and the Colts are actually only 12th in total offense as it is.   I gave this total play out on Monday under 54.5 but I still like it at 51.  I think there are many ways this game goes under and that is the best play here.

Indianapolis / Houston under 51 – 2.5 star premium shared play

Refuse To lose teaser: 6-6 for the year:  6 Pts.  Packers down to -2.5 with the Las Vegas Raiders to -1.5 – 2 star premium shared play

Bow to the Gambling Gods Parlay 2-8 so far for the season: NCAA: Buffalo -404, Wisconsin -565, Illinois +13.5 -110, Rutgers +10.5 -110, NFL: Minnesota Vikings -492

 

College Football Week 14 Free Plays – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-
Louisiana vs Appalachian State -2.5 O/U 51
  • These teams used to be the best in the Sun belt until Coastal Carolina came in.
  • I have App State about 1.5 points better on the power ratings but I wonder why
  • Louisiana has had the harder schedule in my opinion having to face Iowa State
  • Louisiana has a better YPP at 1.8 to App State’s 1.4.
  • Yards per rush are almost identical at 5.7 ish for both teams and same with QB rating and Passing yards per attempt for both teams but Louisiana has the slightly better D by .2 yards per play.
  • This is a rivalry game so at the 3, I have to take the Dog.

Louisiana +3 – 2 star premium shared play

Florida vs Tennessee +17 O/U 61.5 – 
When I looked at this game, one major thing stuck out to me.   When was the last time Tennessee scored over 21 points?   It was their second game of the season on October 3rd against Missouri.  Tennessee has a terrible offense and they only average 20 from playing South Carolina and Missouri.  Another thing that sticks out is that it is going to have freezing rain which usually favors the defense in these situations.  Florida can definitely put up some points if they want to but they have LSU to look forward too.   They also might not play quite as hot on the road.  They only put up 37 at Vanderbilt.  Florida has  a few weeks back.  Florida’s defense has gotten better the last few weeks due to being healthy.  Tennessee will want to slow down this game and not let Kyle Trask beat them bad.  Florida doesn’t play all that fast anyways averaging only 70 plays per game which is the same as Tennessee.  The Gators will want to get the W and get out of Dodge because they have LSU on deck.
Take the Under 61.5 – 2.5 star premium shared play 
Nebraska vs Purdue -2 O/U 61.5
Both of these teams are above average teams and both are also trying to break through the big 10 west.   My power ratings have this game right at the spread but I am more interested in the total.  Contrary to what you may think of plays per game, both of these teams play a little faster than you might think.  Since they consistenly lose time of possession, their plays per game at 70ish doesn’t tell the whole story.  Purdue actually averages 24 seconds per play while Nebraska is at 23.22 seconds per play.  A smart man told me once that the average time of possession per play per team is 25.5 seconds.  Being that these teams give up over 28 points per game, I think this game has a good chance going over the total.  The spread also tells me it’s a shootout.
Over 61.5 is the play – 2 star premium shared

NFL Week 13 Sharp Money

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

As of Wednesday Afternoon:

Sharp money on:

Vikings -9 to -10 hosting the Jaguars – 60% tickets and 85% of the money.

Titans -4 to -6 hosting Cleveland – 60% tickets and 82% of the money.

Falcons +4.5 to +3 hosting the Saints – 45% tickets and 77% of the money.

Colts -2.5 to -3.5 at Houston – 69% tickets and 92% of the money.

Washington +10 to +9 at the Steelers – 41% tickets and 68% of the money.

Sharp Totals:

Jags vs Vikings under 52.5 – 52% tickets and 91% of the money.

Raiders vs Jets under 48 to 47 – 51% tickets and 93% of the money.

Bengals vs Dolphins under 42.5 – 35% tickets and 77% of the money.

 

College Football Week 14 Sharp Money

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

As of Wednesday Afternoon:

Sharp money on:

Airforce -10 to -11.5 at Utah State 53% tickets and 94% of the money.

Oklahoma state -1 to -2.5 – 66% tickets and 99% of the money.

Purdue -1 to -2 hosting Nebraska – 44% tickets and 78% of the money.

Penn State -9 to -11 at Rutgers – 45% tickets and 92% of the money.

Troy at South Alabama -1.5 to -4.5 – 53% tickets and 98% of the money.

Oregon -10 to -12 at Cal – 66% tickets and 90% of the money.

Kentucky -11 hosting South Carolina – 50% tickets and 88% of the money.

Sharp Totals:

Toledo vs Northern Illinois under 59.5 op 55 – 50% tickets and 80% money.

Indiana vs Wisconsin under 50.5 to 45.5 – 73% tickets and 92% of the money.

Maryland vs Michigan over 59.5 – 93% tickets and 96% of the money.

Vanderbilt vs Georgia over 51.5 – 55% tickets and 85% of the money.

South carolina vs Kentucky under 49 to 47.5 – 32% tickets and 82% of the money.

Baylor vs Oklahoma over 63 – 5% tickets and 95% of the money.

Hawaii vs San Jose State over 55.5 to 58 – 33% tickets and 93% of the money.

NFL Week 12 Misleading Final Scores and Week 13 Motivational Spots

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

Detroit out-gained Houston 388-384 yet lost 41-25.  A 3-1 turnover ratio and just horrible coaching did them in.   Bye bye Matt Patricia.

Atlanta only out-gained Las Vegas 304 to 243 yet won 43-6.  Yards per play were equal at 4.2 but a 5-1 turnover ratio destroyed Vegas.

LA Chargers out-gained Buffalo 367 to 332 yet lost 27-17.  They won the turnover battle 1-3 but some of those yards were the desperation Hail Mary at the end.

NY Giants out-gained the Bengals 386 to 155 yet won 19-17.  They also won the turnover battle 1-3 but horrible officiating kept the Bengals in the game.

Arizona out-gained New England 298 to 179 yet lost 20 to 17.  They won the turnover battle at 2-1 yet bad efficiency and a bad personal foul on Simmons at the end did them in.

New Orleans beat Denver 31-3 but Denver didn’t have a quarterback this game.  Not a real one anyways due to Covid protocols.

Chicago vs Green Bay was lots of Garbage yards so no misleading there.

Let Down Spots:

San Francisco hosting Buffalo after beating LA is a let down spot.

Tennessee hosting Cleveland is a small let down spot after they bet the Colts and got revenge.

Washington could let down vs the Steelers after that big Cowboys win but they have a shot at winning the Division now.

Get up spots:

Everyone at this point.

Look ahead spots:

Dolphins looking past the Bengals to the Chiefs is possible.

Bills could be looking past the 49ers to the Steelers.

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