2-1 last night in college hoops and we need a few more wins to get over .500 for the week. Let’s hope for another winning day on this Friday eve!

SIU Edwardsville -1 (-105), 1.5 units: This is a 2:00 EST start so my apologies for the close call here. Tennessee State and SIU Edwardsville are two relatively even teams, both pretty crappy in the national picture but the latter more respectable in the Ohio Valley Conference. Kyle Hunter pointed out SIU Edwardsville’s upcoming schedule in February and he’s right– boy is it brutal! It looks like the Cougars will play at least every other day throughout this next month and that will absolutely take its toll. To me that means the Cougars need to win when they’re in good position to do so and this is one of those spots. I usually love a revenge game and Tennessee State was bested on their home court last time against SIUE, but the Tigers are just a bad outfit and they have to be losing motivation at this point. Look at the January 21st box score between these two teams and the Tigers out-performed or did just as well than the Cougars in just about every category, and the Cougars still won. I think SIUE plays better today on their home court and secures an easier win before they inevitably get blasted by Belmont on Saturday.

Ohio State +5.5 (-105), 1 unit: This might be the spot where Iowa plays to their potential and blows out the Buckeyes, but I don’t trust what I’ve seen from them lately. Garza is a beast but the Hawkeyes are on a 0-3 ATS run and it shows– they went blow for blow with an inferior Michigan State team and lost against two above-average Big 10 teams they should have beaten– Indiana and Illinois. Is this a better spot for Iowa, who’s undoubtedly due for at least a little positive regression? Maybe. Or is it a better spot for an Ohio State team that seems to have found its rhythm riding a 3-game winning streak into this high-profile matchup? The Buckeyes have an exceptional offense and they’ve faced a tougher schedule thus far. I think they can certainly hang with the Hawkeyes and could even get the upset win. I love the way the Buckeyes play on both sides of the ball and I’m on the underdog in a closely fought, Big 10 battle.

Belmont -14 (-110), 1.5 units: Belmont sits atop of the Ohio Valley and looks to continue their undefeated conference streak today as they take on bottom-dweller Eastern Illinois. Last time out the Bruins out-paced the Panthers and won by 13 on their home court. Eastern Illinois turned the ball over 20 times but stayed in the game for most of the 1st and 2nd half thanks to great 3-point shooting, sinking long-balls at a clip of 44% compared to just 28.6% for Belmont. While Belmont didn’t play their best game, it was still an easy win and I expect another similar performance. To me this is another example of one team losing motivation day by day as their season floats away and another team who has no reason to take their foot off the pedal. Belmont is a significantly better team and they play at a tempo and offensive efficiency (ranked 51st on KenPom) that should overwhelm the Panthers earlier than the last contest. I’m on the favorite to cover.

James Madison -9 (-110), 1.5 units: The first game of the hump-day slate is Elon against James Madison in a classic battle of Colonial Athletic elite against conference dumpster-fire. JMU is far better than Elon in just about every category. They’re one of the best teams in college basketball in getting to the free throw line and Haslametrics rates JMU 41st in the nation in consistency– you get what you expect from the Dukes. They’re a high scoring, top 150 offense that loves to beat up on weaker in-conference foes. Elon is one of the worst teams in the country at second-chance scoring and they’re in the bottom 5th in the nation in adjusted offense according to KenPom. I don’t think 9 points is enough; JMU covers with ease.

LSU +8.5 (-110), 1 unit: Both LSU and Alabama are coming off disappointing losses, and maybe some think it’s an advantage spot for Bama at home, but I think it favors the Tigers. Last time these two faced, the Crimson Tide out-raced LSU and ended up blowing them out by 30 points at LSU’s home court. If you think that doesn’t add fire to this revenge spot, you would be wrong. LSU has a top 10, prolific offense that scores more per game than their opponent. Bama has a clear edge in adjusted defense (LSU ranks 146th, Alabama ranks 8th on KenPom), but I think the extra motivation will fire up the underdog and keep LSU in this contest. Don’t be surprised if the Tigers are ahead in the first half, too. When they’re fluid and confident, LSU can score at a lightning pace. This is a heated rivalry game where we have to throw some stats out the window– I expect Cameron Thomas and company to come out on fire and LSU to cover.

Virginia -6.5 (-110), 1.5 units: This is a spot play on Virginia after that huge, disappointing loss against Virginia Tech. The two titans of the this year’s ACC went head-to-head Saturday and VA-Tech out-shot, out-worked, and out-defended UVA. This can’t sit well with the Cavaliers. The Hokies shot 50% both from the field and from the 3-point line, procured more rebounds, and had 3 more blocks than UVA. NC State is an average opponent, but average won’t be enough tonight. This line actually makes me pause a bit because it feels way too low. Expect the Cavaliers to flex their muscles  and reclaim their confidence atop the ACC; the Wolfpack just won’t win any of these matchups against a motivated UVA unit.

Wake Forest +5.5 (-110), 1 unit: This feels like a big choke-spot for the Irish. After an impressive win and offensive performance on the road against Pitt, Notre Dame heads back home, surely full of confidence, to take on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons. The Demon Deacons are 2nd to last only above Boston College in the ACC. I don’t think Wake is very good, and it’s easy to see why Notre Dame is the favorite. One thing the Deacons are good at is shooting from beyond the arc (ranked in the top 100 in efficiency and top 40 in attempts) and free throw percentage, both factors that could keep them in the game against an Irish defense that Haslametrics ranks dead last in the country in defensive field goal attempt rate vs. the average opponent. That should open a lot of opportunities for Wake Forest to get up more 3s. The Demon Deacons have an opportunity to keep this one close; I think they take advantage.

Maryland -2.5 (-110), 1 unit: This is another spot play for me on Maryland. They’re at home after nearly a week off and just faced a tough loss against a better opponent. Maryland is much better at beating teams that are on par with their talent and depth; insert Purdue. Last time out the Boilermakers squeaked by the Terps, winning 73-70 back on Christmas. Purdue out-rebounded and far out-shot the Terps from beyond the arc at over 45% from 3-point land. I expect some regression to the mean. Maryland needs to start stacking up wins if they want to stay in the mix and this is a good revenge spot, against a very evenly-matched team, to get it done.

Baylor -5.5  (-110), 2 units: My great aunt, who was more like my grandmother growing up, was famous for many sayings. One of my favorites was, “I may be dumb but I’m not stupid.” That’s how I feel tonight betting on Baylor. It may be as square as it gets, but what can I say? I’m not an idiot. I can’t step in front of Baylor here. If you’re wondering how Baylor has fared on the road in big games, look back at the box scores when the Bears faced Oklahoma State, Texas Tech and TCU. You’ll only gain more confidence in Baylor. I think they left their last game a little disappointed– Auburn stayed within distance– and I look for them to rebound in a big way against in-state rival Texas. The Longhorns look like they’re getting back Shaka Smart, which is a big addition, but I don’t think it’ll matter. The best bettors play the number, not just the side. This number is too sweet to pass up.

Iowa -9.5 (-105), 1.5 units: This game sets up really bad for Michigan State. The Hawkeyes are fresh off two very disappointing losses, headed home, and they’re big play, fast-paced offense is going up against the subpar Spartans. What a great spot to get things right. The Spartans aren’t the same since Cassius Winston and others left, and I don’t think they can keep pace with Iowa on either side of the ball tonight. I expect a blowout.

GA Tech +4.5 (-105), 1.5 units: The books can’t make their mind up on this line, but I’ll take +4.5 at a lower price. Georgia Tech and Louisville are two teams trending in opposite directions. GA Tech comes off a great showing Saturday, upsetting conference giant Florida State. The Louisville Cardinal, on the other hand, feel like a great fade candidate. Losers of 3 of their last 4, the Cardinal have gone from a superior defensive team, allowing only 38.8% from the field before mid-January, to a team that’s now allowing 45.6% in their last 4 games. Meanwhile, Georgia Tech has been a tough team to beat on the road, their offense is only getting more efficient and ranks higher than Louisville, and they’ve covered 5 of their last 6 outings. This line would be pick-em if it wasn’t for the Louisville spot, but the value is still on the Yellow Jackets. I think this could be a play-on team down the stretch, especially as a dog. I’ll take a shot on Georgia Tech, and may sprinkle a little for the ML win.

Drake -17.5 (-110), 1 unit: Is this me being a little sour after yesterday’s ATS loss? Maybe. The fact that Drake AND the Utah Jazz both broke their ATS streaks when I had their side didn’t amount to my best Sunday, but I have to like this line even more after Drake’s disappointing showing. In no way are the Illinois State Redbirds on the same level, in any regard, of the Drake Bulldogs. I think Drake makes a statement today, after what was very nearly an OT loss and very poor showing Sunday afternoon. This is how you’re taught to bet– take advantage of a better spot and a better number when a team’s motivation should be much greater– God help me.

SE Missouri State +7.5 (-105), 1 unit: Talk about needing help from above, check out this bet on the Southeast Missouri State Redhawks. Writing about the Redbirds and Redhawks in back-to-back articles has to be some kind of sad record, but nonetheless here we are. SEMO takes on Murray State tonight and I just don’t see where these teams are that different. Murray State has absolutely owned the Redhawks in their series matchups, but that only gives the underdog more motivation to play their best basketball… right? The Redhawks have won 2 straight and this is their third straight home game. They looked particularly able on defense lately, allowing only 62 ppg in their last 5 games. Murray State is 0-7 when scoring less than 71 points this year, so if the Redhawks can continue to clamp down, this should be a close contest until the end. I like the dog to make it interesting.

Memphis -9 (-110), 1.5 units: I think the Memphis defense will be too much for UCF in this one. Ranked 4th overall on KenPom and 3rd overall on Barttorvik in adjusted defense, the Memphis Tigers allow under 63 ppg (and have allowed only 60 ppg in their last 5 contests). The UCF Knights are a battle tested team, ranked #7 in adjusted strength of schedule on KenPom. They’re an above-average defensive team, but a very average team on offense. They’re also in a bad spot. After coming off two straight games where they overperformed, they lost a heartbreaker in OT Saturday against conference foe Wichita State, who sits at #2 in the American Athletic. Now they travel to Memphis, who’s coming off 4 days of rest and last lost in a close game to another conference opponent in SMU. UCF relies on 3 point shooting to anchor their offense– a perfect setup for Memphis. Memphis is exceptionally good on 3-point defense, allowing only 28.9% from beyond the arc. They also allow under 87 points per 100 possessions, another top 10 defensive designation. I think the Tigers create some distance in the second and pull away.

Grambling State -24.5 (-115), 1.15 units: The Mississippi State Valley Delta Devils, that’s right that’s a real college basketball team, are getting absolutely blitzed by everyone they face. We’re not entirely sure what’s going on, but the Delta Devils are a winless team out of the Southwestern Athletic Conference and they rank dead last in adjusted offense and defense on KenPom, Barttorvik, and Haslametrics. The point is, this is the worst team in Division 1 basketball. While Grambling State isn’t necessarily a Division 1 or even conference giant, this line indicates the level of disparity between these two teams. According to ESPN, the stout Grambling State defense has held opposing offenses to a field goal percentage of 39.3 percent, the 24th-lowest mark in Division I. Mississippi Valley State has allowed opponents to shoot 51.9 percent through 14 games (ranking the Delta Devils 344th). That sounds like a recipe for a blowout to me. What a crazy line, and maybe even crazier that I’m playing on it.