GA Tech +4.5 (-105), 1.5 units: The books can’t make their mind up on this line, but I’ll take +4.5 at a lower price. Georgia Tech and Louisville are two teams trending in opposite directions. GA Tech comes off a great showing Saturday, upsetting conference giant Florida State. The Louisville Cardinal, on the other hand, feel like a great fade candidate. Losers of 3 of their last 4, the Cardinal have gone from a superior defensive team, allowing only 38.8% from the field before mid-January, to a team that’s now allowing 45.6% in their last 4 games. Meanwhile, Georgia Tech has been a tough team to beat on the road, their offense is only getting more efficient and ranks higher than Louisville, and they’ve covered 5 of their last 6 outings. This line would be pick-em if it wasn’t for the Louisville spot, but the value is still on the Yellow Jackets. I think this could be a play-on team down the stretch, especially as a dog. I’ll take a shot on Georgia Tech, and may sprinkle a little for the ML win.

Drake -17.5 (-110), 1 unit: Is this me being a little sour after yesterday’s ATS loss? Maybe. The fact that Drake AND the Utah Jazz both broke their ATS streaks when I had their side didn’t amount to my best Sunday, but I have to like this line even more after Drake’s disappointing showing. In no way are the Illinois State Redbirds on the same level, in any regard, of the Drake Bulldogs. I think Drake makes a statement today, after what was very nearly an OT loss and very poor showing Sunday afternoon. This is how you’re taught to bet– take advantage of a better spot and a better number when a team’s motivation should be much greater– God help me.

SE Missouri State +7.5 (-105), 1 unit: Talk about needing help from above, check out this bet on the Southeast Missouri State Redhawks. Writing about the Redbirds and Redhawks in back-to-back articles has to be some kind of sad record, but nonetheless here we are. SEMO takes on Murray State tonight and I just don’t see where these teams are that different. Murray State has absolutely owned the Redhawks in their series matchups, but that only gives the underdog more motivation to play their best basketball… right? The Redhawks have won 2 straight and this is their third straight home game. They looked particularly able on defense lately, allowing only 62 ppg in their last 5 games. Murray State is 0-7 when scoring less than 71 points this year, so if the Redhawks can continue to clamp down, this should be a close contest until the end. I like the dog to make it interesting.

Memphis -9 (-110), 1.5 units: I think the Memphis defense will be too much for UCF in this one. Ranked 4th overall on KenPom and 3rd overall on Barttorvik in adjusted defense, the Memphis Tigers allow under 63 ppg (and have allowed only 60 ppg in their last 5 contests). The UCF Knights are a battle tested team, ranked #7 in adjusted strength of schedule on KenPom. They’re an above-average defensive team, but a very average team on offense. They’re also in a bad spot. After coming off two straight games where they overperformed, they lost a heartbreaker in OT Saturday against conference foe Wichita State, who sits at #2 in the American Athletic. Now they travel to Memphis, who’s coming off 4 days of rest and last lost in a close game to another conference opponent in SMU. UCF relies on 3 point shooting to anchor their offense– a perfect setup for Memphis. Memphis is exceptionally good on 3-point defense, allowing only 28.9% from beyond the arc. They also allow under 87 points per 100 possessions, another top 10 defensive designation. I think the Tigers create some distance in the second and pull away.

Grambling State -24.5 (-115), 1.15 units: The Mississippi State Valley Delta Devils, that’s right that’s a real college basketball team, are getting absolutely blitzed by everyone they face. We’re not entirely sure what’s going on, but the Delta Devils are a winless team out of the Southwestern Athletic Conference and they rank dead last in adjusted offense and defense on KenPom, Barttorvik, and Haslametrics. The point is, this is the worst team in Division 1 basketball. While Grambling State isn’t necessarily a Division 1 or even conference giant, this line indicates the level of disparity between these two teams. According to ESPN, the stout Grambling State defense has held opposing offenses to a field goal percentage of 39.3 percent, the 24th-lowest mark in Division I. Mississippi Valley State has allowed opponents to shoot 51.9 percent through 14 games (ranking the Delta Devils 344th). That sounds like a recipe for a blowout to me. What a crazy line, and maybe even crazier that I’m playing on it.

SMU +10.5 (-110), 1.5 units: The Houston Cougars have been incredibly impressive, winners of 7 straight and climbing the national ranks as they display one of the best defenses in the country and an offense that scores over 74 ppg. They rank 17th in adjusted offense and 3rd in adjusted defense according to KenPom. Next to Gonzaga and Baylor, they’ve been one of college basketball’s most dominant squads. Unfortunately, I think they’re just due for some negative regression. Insert SMU. Just below Houston in the American Athletic Conference sit the SMU Mustangs, a very solid team who would love to take out their foe. The Mustangs rank better than Houston in 2 point FG % and 3-point % and, according to KenPom, have faced virtually the same difficulty of opponents (Houston ranks 104th/SMU ranks 108th). They also score more than Houston at 77.5 ppg, and they’re one of the best teams in the country against 2 point field goals (ranked 17th on Barttorvik). This is a great spot for a highly motivated SMU team to contend with the conference leader, and frankly this game is on my upset-radar. I’m on the dog. PS– Both teams are coming off long 20+ day layoffs, so I also lean under 138 for a game that should start slow. A first half under could work, too.

Drake -18.5 (-110), 1 unit: The undefeated Drake Bulldogs take on Missouri Valley Conference bottom-feeder Illinois State, and their deserving of this big line. The Bulldogs score an incredible 82+ ppg and allow only 61 ppg. They’re also shooting over 50% from the field and Barttorvik ranks them 3rd in the country in 3-point efficiency. It’s probably fair to say, at some point, that Drake is due for negative regression. This just isn’t the spot. The Bulldogs are at home and Illinois State won’t have the talent or gumption to hold back the conference leader. I’m on Drake to win huge.

Sam Houston State +6 (-105), 1.5 units: Sam Houston State and Stephen F. Austin are two very evenly matched teams. SHSU scores 81 ppg, SFA scores 82 ppg. SHSU allows 71 ppg, SFA allows 72 ppg. And they’ve both had a layoff of around 3 weeks. One big statistical difference is strength of opponent. KenPom ranks SFA’s strength of schedule at 343rd, one of the easiest in the country. Sam Houston State has played the 141st toughest schedule, a considerable difference than their opponent. This is a big in-conference game and the Bearkats will be play over-their-heads to prove their merit. SHSU has won their last 5 road games, and I love their side today. Interesting stat: According to ESPN, the Sam Houston defense has forced opponents into turnovers on an impressive 24.6 percent of all possessions, which ranks the Bearkats 15th among Division I teams.

UNLV/Nevada 1H under 67 (-110), 1.5 units: Mountain West foes face off in the late slate Sunday as UNLV and Nevada jockey for position in their conference, and we love the under in the first half. Both teams play solid defense. In their last 5 games, the Rebels have only allowed 56.8 ppg. In the same span, the Wolfpack have allowed 71 ppg, but the Rebels aren’t the most offensively efficient team (ranked 103rd on KenPom), so they shouldn’t struggle too much. Both squads average around 67 ppg allowed on the season. UNLV and Nevada are also coming off significant layoffs– UNLV hasn’t played since Jan 16th, Nevada hasn’t played since Jan 9th. That usually means sloppy offensive play and a ton of missed shots and turnovers, especially in the first half. I’ll favor a slow-starting, in-conference game to fly well under 67 before any team gains a rhythm.

Here are more free picks for this gigantic Saturday slate in college basketball! For Part I of today’s free picks, check out the article I released last night. Enjoy!

Wisconsin -4.5 (-110), 1 unit: If the Badgers want to remain among the country’s elite, these are the games they have to win, and by a little margin, too. The Nittany Lions can play with the big boys when they do everything right and they’ve faced the hardest schedule in the country according to KenPom. At home, the Badgers won’t intimidate them. But Wisconsin’s talent level on offense and defense should completely un-match Penn State. I’ll take a shot on the Badgers to play more consistent than they have in recent past. I think this is a decent play-on spot for a team capable of doing damage in the tournament and they should start gaining steam, if they’re worth their merit.

UVA/Virginia Tech under 124.5 (-110), 1.5 units: Lately Virginia Tech’s defense has impressed me even more than UVA. Both Barttorvik and KenPom rank Virginia’s defensive efficiency slightly better, but the Hokies have stifled some above-average offenses lately, including Notre Dame and Duke (I’ll ignore last Saturday’s flop against Syracuse, that was a bad spot). Among elite teams, UVA and VA Tech both have two of the slowest tempos in the country. I like that this game is in Blacksburg, too. Even with limited home court advantage, the Hokies will be highly motivated to prove they can hang with the defensive prowess of the Cavaliers. I don’t expect UVA to lose, but it’s a decent let-down spot after winning 7 straight games, so nerves could come into play. For all these reasons, we have to favor an under between two elite defensive teams.

Notre Dame +4 (-110), 1.5 units: Notre Dame has managed to maintain a top-flight offense despite facing the 13th toughest schedule according to KenPom. The Irish are opportunists who like to steal wins against teams who the marketplace thinks are either evenly matched or better. Pittsburgh’s defense is solid, but it’s nothing new or inhibitive for the Irish, who KenPom ranks as having the 11th toughest defensive opponents thus far. Pitt is on a two-game slump, and this spot at home certainly presents a better situation for the Panthers, but Notre Dame’s offense is due for positive regression after two straight stinkers. I think the Irish keep this close in a very evenly matched game.

CS Fullerton/CS Bakersfield over 137.5 (-110), 2 units: Last night these two teams faced off and the game had a real ugly start. Midway through the first half, they combined for only 19 points. Then they finally found a rhythm. In the second half, Fullerton and Bakersfield combined for a whopping 112 total points, each exposing each other’s defenses and finding easy ways to score. Following it live, it looked like neither team could miss for big stretches of play. I expect CS Bakersfield to clamp down a little bit, they have a considerably better defense, but I think the offenses keep winning the small battles. While it won’t be another 174 point game, this number is still way too low.

Check out my 2nd article for even more NCAAM picks for your Saturday!

Alabama +1.5 (-110), 1.5 units: Two white-hot teams come into Saturday in a big showdown among elites, as #9 Alabama goes up against #24 Oklahoma. It’s hard to pick a side– both teams are well coached and should be highly motivated at tip-off– but I give the edge to Alabama for 2 big reasons: 3-point efficiency and pace. I think the Sooners will spend most of this game catching up to the Crimson Tide. Although both teams play fast, Alabama has virtually no weaknesses on offense. While Oklahoma stifles most of its opponents with a well-schemed and disciplined defense, Alabama moves the ball around with fluidity and is among one of the best shooting teams in the country beyond the arc (ranked 17th on Haslametrics on 3 pt. FG % against the average opponent). Bama overwhelms the Sooners late.

Duke -5 (-110), 1 unit: Yeeeaaa I really don’t want to bet on Duke this year, but this is a different situation. The Blue Devils finally seem healthy and they get a star back in Jalen Johnson. Clemson plays stout defense but they’re not particularly effective on offense, ranking 120th on Barttorvik’s offensive efficiency rating. Duke doesn’t have to play exemplary to win, and it helps that Clemson has really struggled on the road this season (0-4 ATS in their last 4 games). The Blue Devils should be highly motivated since their season, if it’s going to get back on track, really needs to kick in gear now.

Baylor -14.5 (-110), 1.5 units: I’ve tried really hard to look at the Auburn side and I ended up back on Baylor in yet another big win. Why? Because just like virtually every team they’ve faced, I think the Bears will overwhelm and run away with this game (and maybe by the end of the first half). The Tigers are a very formidable opponent, and the addition of Sharife Cooper has really boosted their offense (scoring 22.3 ppg since returning on January 9). In general Auburn has played really well lately, but it scares me that KenPom gives them a 347th experience ranking. Baylor, the 1st ranked defense and 3rd ranked offense according to KenPom, is playing for something different now– historical dominance. I mean the Bears have only won 2 games by less than double digits so far this year (and one was hokey, caused by a last second 3-pointer). I just can’t go against this team– Baylor is one of the most complete teams I’ve ever seen, and I don’t think Auburn is close in talent, grit or depth. This is a close line, but it’s still too short for me.

Florida State -4.5 (-110), 1 unit: The Seminoles easily beat the Yellow Jackets back in mid-December and I think this will look very similar. Florida State is just in a different class and they’re really starting to hum as an offense. Despite the revenge angle and how motivated Georgia Tech should be for this matchup, Florida State is so well balanced and stout defensively, and their offense is only getting better: an FSU researcher found that Florida State is now the No. 1 team in the nation at converting on guarded catch-and-shoot opportunities. In 105 contested catch-and-shoot situations, the Seminoles are producing at a 1.351 points per possession clip, tops in Division-I. The Seminoles should be able to control this game on both sides of the ball. If you like GA Tech, go for a first half line.