NHL

There is a small slate tonight, only two games.

Carolina Hurricanes+130 @ Columbus Blue Jackets-150 – O/U-6

In the first game, the Carolina Hurricanes head to Columbus to take on the Blue Jackets.  Both teams are on the 2nd game/night of a back-to-back.  The Hurricanes are coming off an OT loss at home against the Islanders.  Columbus is coming home off a win in Detroit.  Last night the Blue Jackets had their backup goalie in; and tonight their starter, Sergi Bobrovsky, will be between the pipes for his season debut.  These teams are pretty even, but I think that Columbus has a bit of an edge.  Digging deeper to find an edge, Columbus has the better goalie.  I am slightly nervous that Columbus has not fared well within their division.  However, when on the road, with a total of 6, the Hurricanes are 5-6.  When at home, the Blue Jackets with a total of 6, are 7-2.  Over the last 16 games the O/U is 4-10-2.  I think the Under is a solid investment here.  Columbus, over the last 30 games, has fare better than Carolina on the 2nd game of a back-to back.

Taking Columbus and Under 6.

San Jose-120 @ Los Angeles Kings+100 – O/U 5.5

San Jose finds themselves in the same position as Boston did last night. They came out flat opening night and they got a little embarrassed, losing 5-2 at home to the Ducks.  San Jose has high hopes after their recent success, add that to the acquisition of Karlsson and they are all in on competing for the Stanley Cup this season.  They have had a day to contemplate and fix the issues resulting in their embarrassing loss, to their in-state rival no less.  SJ faces a LA Kings team that is playing their first game of the season, their home opener, and also in-state rival.  This shouldn’t be an easy game for SJ, but I like them to bounce back here.  LAK has the better record, when at home with a total of O/U 5.5.  But SJ has the better recent historical record on friday nights and vs division opponents.  SJ has also been phenomenal at bouncing back, they are 31-17 after allowing 4 goals or more.  And they are 26-15 after a loss, giving up 2 goals or more in their previous game.  SJ is 6-3 SU against LAK over the last 3 seasons.  The last 5 games have gone Under.

Taking San Jose and Under 5.5.  

Happy Friday and GL2ALL!!!

10-4-18 NHL RECAP:

Last night was a great night on the Ice for us!  We went 12-3, for +8.25Units.  Here is last nights recap:

Boston bounced back in a BIG way, shutting out Buffalo 4-0.  We were on Boston and the Under 6, cashing both.

We had Carolina-165 at home, and they did not get it done, losing 2-1 in OT.  We were also on the Over in that one.

Pittsburgh was down early to Washington.  They scored 5 combined goals in the first period.  Early in the second period we cashed our Over 6.  We were on Pittsburgh and they got it done in OT, winning 7-6.

We took Chicago and the Over, Columbus and the Under, all those cashed and both games went into OT!  We also had Winnipeg, Dallas and Colorado, all winners!  4 Games went into OT, and we went 3-1 in thos games!

The last game of the night was Las Vegas.  We were on Vegas but they came out flat and never recovered, losing 5-2.

It was a great night in the NHL and we will look to continue that again tonight!

We are now at the point in the season of our Handicapping that returning production from last year really doesn’t mean shit.     There is enough current data out there to get an accurate portrayal of how these games will be played out.  You still need to factor in strength of schedule when handicapping.   These teams are barely into their conference play and this makes a difference.

College Football Week 5

Maryland vs Michigan -17.5

Now I know DJ Durkin has been a huge distraction to this team and it showed vs Temple, but I do think that they were penalized a bit too much for this slip up.   I mean a pick 6 happened in that game and kinda threw them off.   We have to remember that Maryland does have Matt Canada and I have seen him in action.   He was Offensive Coordinator on a bad 2012 Badgers team to a big 10 championship.   I also like Marylands rushing attack at 6.2 yards per carry led by Ty Johnson and Anthony McFarland.   Their running game opens up the Pass for Kasim Hill.   On the other hand Michigan destroyed a terrible Nebraska team and got way too much credit for it.   That showed last week against Northwestern having to come back after almost losing outright.   Michigan’s Stats have been padded by playing some very bad teams in Nebraska, SMU and Western Michigan so that 6.3 yards per play on offense and 3.5 allowing on defense doesn’t quite show the real picture.   Maryland can step up the big games as you seen against Texas.   Lets not forget this is a look ahead spot to Wisconsin for Michigan.  I have Michigan by 12.5 points

Maryland +17.5

Kentucky vs Texas A & M -5.5

Who has been the most surprising team in football?    It is certainly been Kentucky this year beating Florida, Mississippi State, and South Carolina.   They are averaging 6.2 yards per play and allowing just 4.4 on defense.   Kentucky is a top 20 team against the pass while Texas A & M ranks 104th.  What I really like about Kentucky is that they are 4th in the nation in opponent yards per point at 21.5.   HUGE ON DEFENSE!   Now I know A&M has played Clemson and Bama but I think they get a little too much credit for almost beating a Clemson team that looks down this year.   The Aggies do have a good offense averaging 6.6 yards per play but they also give up 6.2 yards per play and that doesn’t bode well.   They also have turnover issues.  The Arkansas game last week really says a lot to me when they only won by 1 touchdown here.   I think this game should be more of a Pickem.

Kentucky + 5.5 & ML Sprinkle

Syracuse vs Pittsburgh +5

This line is wrong.   I do not care how well Pittsburg plays at home.   This Pitt team is bad and can only handle the bad teams of the FBS.   They average 22 points a game at 5.5 yards per play while Syracuse averages 44 points a game at 6 yards per play.   On Defense Syracuse also has the edge allowing 5.8 yards per play to Pittsburgh’s 6.3.   Now Pitt has played a tougher schedule at this point and could not score more than 14 points vs UCF and 6 at home vs Penn State.  The Panthers also really benefitted by playing a weakened North Carolina team with guys on suspension and a bad Georgia Tech triple option team at home.

Syracuse -5 

Kansas State vs Baylor -3

Now I got this one early and see that its -4.5 now but I like it anyways.   K state is not the same K state team of the recent years.   They only average 3.6 yards per rush which is 1.3 worse than last year and 1.6 worse than 2016.   Skyler Thompson’s passer rating is also a dismal 129 ranking 88th in college football.   Baylor just got done playing powerhouse Oklahoma and is now more game tested for this week.   Baylor’s Charlie Brewer has an OK passer rating of 143.5 but the key to this game is that Baylor can move the ball.   They are 11th in Pace and is averaging 167 more yards per game than K State.   Both teams defensive match up pretty equally giving up about 5.3 yardes per run and both at about 1150 passing yards this year.

Baylor -3 all the way to 6

Notre Dame vs Virginia Tech +5.5 O/U is now 57

So we know that Notre Dame is playing a much better game with Ian Book and it showed last week vs Stanford.   Now its time for the ole let down spot that we love to look at so much.   The question is, how much can they let down at Va Tech?   Ryan Willis came out firing vs Duke for the Hokies passing 17/27 and 332 yards with 3 Tds while Duke came out flat…   But my question is how much of that flatness was Va Tech great defense ?  I think this Tech defense really didn’t take Old Dominion seriously and that is why they allowed 49 points to them throwing the average stats off.  Hell, maybe the team went out and partied the night before that game.   No clue but tech’s defense would definitely look way better if it wasn’t for that terrible old dominion game and they still allow only 20 points per game without.   Notre Dame on the other hand only allows 4.5 yards per play and 19 points per game.   Both teams play at a slightly above average pace of play but I think with the let down spot for Irish and how much this game means to the Hokies that points will come at a premium this game.

Notre Dame under 57 points

SMU vs UCF – O/U 71

If you know anything about these teams then I probably do not even have to tell you my side here.   UCF plays at a very fast pace at 77 plays per game but it would look a lot faster if they quit blowing out some of these teams…   UCF averages 49 points per game.   On the other hand SMU is traditionally a fast paced team that averages 29 points per game but gives up 39 points per game.   Most importantly here I think that SMU has kinda figured a few things out since their Michigan and TCU blow out losses.   They put up 31 vs Navy and 63 against a bad FCS team Houston Baptist.    We need just 21 points out of the mustangs to cover this total.    I think since UCF is looking ahead to Memphis this week that they will allow some points to be scored with the second string playing the 4th quarter.

UCF over 71

Miami (OH) vs Akron -3.5

This is probably the best free pick that I can give you this week.   Miami Ohio is not a good team this year.   It isn’t hard to see this when they are averaging 5.1 yards per play against some pretty bad teams.   The Redbirds are giving up 5.2 yards per play against a pretty weak schedule with the likes of Marshall, Western Michigan, Minnesota, and Bowling green.   Akron on the other hand is MUCH IMPROVED since last year already tasting big victory against the Northwestern Wildcats and played well against Iowa State in the let down spot the next week.   The Zips are coming off a bye  in this spot and the Redhawks are still hurting over that close game against Western Michigan at home.   This team is tired.   Forget that Akron is averaging 5.4 yards per play against this tough schedule.   This game is more about defense in which the Zips are only giving up 4.45 yards per play total and 2.6 years per play on the ground.   Power ratings say Akron by 10 points here minimum.

Akron -3.5 and is my top play

Oregon State vs Washington St – Premium

Georgia Tech vs Louisville – Premium

Tulsa vs Houston – Premium

Cal vs Arizona – Premium

Other Plays:

Wisconsin -20.5 hosting Nebraska – What do we say?   When bad teams play fast, they lose fast.    You see this with all Nebraska games as well as Wake Forest and Uconn.  Wisconsin is coming off a bye and get some injured players back like Van Ginke.   Expect a boat race here.

USF vs Umass +14 – USF is fake news.   They should have lost to Georgia Tech and barely lost to Illinois.  Now they have to travel to Massachusetts that has a healthier QB in Ford.   South Florida has 2 Running backs questionable for this game and are down 1 starting wide receiver.   

Old Dominion vs Florida Atlantic Over 65.5 points – FAU plays pretty fast football and is dying for a win after losing 2 in a row.   Old Dominion has stepped it up the last 2 games vs Va tech and East Carolina scoring an average of 42 points vs those opponents.   Blake Larussa has been looking good throwing for 2 Tds vs East Carolina and 495 yards and 4 TDs vs Va Tech.   I expect a shoot out here.   Oh, and did i mention that both defenses allow over 36 points per game and 6.3 yards per play?

Auburn -3.5 vs Miss State – QB Nick Fitzgerald is not a fit for a Joe Moorhead type offense and we have seen this vs Kentucky and Florida.   You need a good pocket passer and he isn’t that.   They haven’t really beaten anyone and Auburn is more battle tested and can’t afford a loss.   Miss state is still one of the most over rated teams IMO.

Airforce +3.5 and ML Sprinkle vs Navy – Line is way off

The Sharp line Report:

Middle Tennessee state at Marshall to -6.5

Mizzu at South Carolina to +1

Maryland at Michigan to +17

Ball State hosting NIU to +3

San Diego State at Boise State smurf turf to +14

Iowa State to +10 vs Oklahoma State

UNLV -9.5 vs New Mexico

Old Dominion +13.5 at Florida Atlantic

SMU to +24 vs UCF for the look ahead spot

Georgia -26 at Vandy

Sharp Totals

Georgia state vs Troy under to 54.5

Tulsa at Houston over to 71

Middle Tennessee vs Marshal over 52

Illinois vs Rutgers under to 50.5

North Western vs Michigan State under to 44

Eastern Michigan vs Western Michigan under to 59

Arkansas vs Bama under 59

Boston College vs NC State over to 59.5

Ohio vs Kent State over to 71.5  WOW.

Bowling green vs Toledo under to 73

Miami Ohio vs Akron over 48

Florida State vs Miami over 48.5

Wake forest vs Clemson over to 62.5

Iowa vs Minnesota under 42

Vandy vs Georgia under 52

Cal vs Arizona over to 57.5

Wyoming vs Hawaii over 58

NFL Week 5!

LA Rams vs Seattle Seahawks – +7 O/U 50

So another division rivalry game this weekend but one team is on the up and one is definitely on the down.   The Rams are second in the league in Passing with 363 yards per game and 7th in Rushing at 125.   They lead the league in efficiency and it isn’t even close.   On the other side the Seattle defense has been stepping up when it needed to getting the W at home against the Cowboys and last week against the Cardinals.   The problem with Seattle is that they faced some very easy competition and still ranks second to last at 196 yards per game passing the ball and only 106 rushing.   The Seahawks should not have won last week due to a Cardinals missed field goal and even worse, earl Thomas broke his leg and is out for the season.   To add more punishment to pain, Mychal Kendricks their strong side linebacker was suspended by the NFL for securities fraud and insider trading so the Seahawks will have to rely on rookie Shaquem Griffen.   The currently have one of the best defenses in the NFL with Arron Donald going nuts and throwing people like rag dolls.  They rank 8th and will show better after playing the Seahawks.   Looking at Seattle injury report, this team is in some major troubles.    If you look at these schedules it is pretty obvious that the Rams have had much harder offensive competition.   Plus I love how the Rams have had 10 days to prepare for Russell Wilson.  This should be a 10 point spread in my opinion and I don’t see Seattle moving the ball

Rams -7

Indianapolis vs New England – 10 O/U 51.5

The Pats found their groove last week spreading the ball out to guys like Cordelle Patterson, Chris Hogan, Josh Gordon and Gronk.    This week they get Julian Edelman back which makes it an even a scary thing to go up against this offense.   On the other side of the coin, the patriots defense is giving up 347 yards per game and the colts are giving up 377.    This game is all about the Injury report here.   The Colts are missing their best LB Darius Leonard and he is doubtful to play this game being in a walking boot on Monday.   There are also 3 corner backs that did not participate in Mondays practice and as of now 2 of their right corner backs are out for the game Kenny Moore and Quincy Nelson.   Safety Clayton Geathers is also questionable.   Even if Leonard can play he will be less then 80%.  The Patriots should be able to score very easily against this hobbled second-rate defense.  New England ranks 10th in yards per point at 14.2 and the colts are right under them at 14.3.   I know TY Hilton is banged up but there are still some good weapons on this colts team with Ebron at tight end, Ryan Grant and Chester Rodgers at WR.  Nyheim Hines has also been ripping it up at RB with Marlon Mack out.  Due to the offensive passing power of these teams, i think they should be able to drive this score up.   I have the Patriots winning 35 to 21 for a total of 56 and I think the Patriots Roll.

Over 51.5 and Patriots -10

Falcons vs Steelers – 3 O/U 58 –

Ok, if you look at these 2 teams there are very similar.   From a metrics standpoint, both teams are very vulnerable in the middle of their defense with the Steelers never filling the Ryan Shazier gap and the Falcons losing Deon Jones earlier in September.   Atlanta last weekend lost DE Grady Jarrett but quickly signed Michael Bennett off waivers to replace him.   Both teams allow about 6 yards per play on defense and on offense are around about 411 yards per game.   Atlanta has more yards per play though at 6.5 due to having less plays per game.   So the biggest thing for me is how will these teams attack the middle of the field.   We know that Vance Mcdonald is a beast but will Mike Tomlin be smart enough to quit throwing the ball to Diva Antonio Brown and actually try and game plan this game?   I doubt it.    Not saying Steve Sarkesian and Dan Quinn are offensive Geniuses but they should be smart enough to throw the ball to Austin Hooper the Tight end in the middle of the field.  Another thing that I like is that Antonio Freeman might be back this game opening up some passing lanes for the short game.   If you look at who these teams have played it is very obvious to me who had the tougher schedule here and the Falcons have faced the Saints, Panthers, Super bowl champion Eagles and Bengals while the Steelers faced the Bucs, Ravins, Chiefs and Browns.   I have to keep fading the Steelers here.

Falcons +3

2 Teaser Bonus!

Carolina Panthers to -1 with the under on the Bills vs Titans game to 45 – Carolina off the bye and Bills vs Titans should be low scoring.

Bengals to -.5 with the Rams to -1 – Bengals get Vontez Burfect back and will hype u this D.

Yesterday was a rough day in the NHL for me.  0-4 ATS from published picks.  My personal plays saved me, taking Montreal U2.5TT and Toronto ML. Yesterdays plays were: TOR PL, CAL, BOS, and San Jose.

Boston-125 continues their road trip, heading up to Buffalo+110.  Boston is coming off a blow out loss to Washington.  I look for them to be pissed and they are going to take it out on Buffalo.  Boston has an edge in a better Goalie and they were just embarrassed.  They also have the advantage of having that first game out of the way.  I was on Boston last night and with them not playing well, getting shut-out 7-0, I look for them to bounce back.  Boston ML-125. Lean Under 6.

Carolina-165 is at home to play the New York Islanders+140.  Carolina has a slight edge head to head in their last 30, winning 17.  They have a slightly better goalie and are at home.  Lean Carolina and OVER 6.

Washington+140 is coming off a 7-0 win last night where they shut out the Bruins at home.  They head to Pittsburgh-165 to take on the Penguins. The Penguins and Capitals met last season in the Eastern Conference 2nd round. It went 6 games, with the Capitals escaping with a 2-1 OT victory.  Over their last 30 games as an away dog, Washington has not fared well in Pittsburgh, going 11-19.  I lean Pittsburgh to get some slight revenge for the Capitals ending their season last year on their ice. Lean on the Over 6 goals.

Chicago-120 is heading to Ottawa+100 where they will both be playing their first game.  Ottawa traded away one of their star players, Karlsson a couple of weeks ago.  They will be adjusting to the ice without him.  Chicago has had some injuries to their goalie and as a result will start Cam Ward.  The numbers say to take Chicago, but it should be noted that Senators coach, Guy Boucher is 4-0-1 in season-opening games.  In spite of that, I lean Chicago and will take the Over 6.  The Senators are just 1-9 at home when the total is 6 or more over the last three seasons.

Columbus-135 heads to Detroit+115, to take on the Red Wings.  The O/U is 5.5.  The last 10 these two teams have played, the O/U is 2-7-1.  Theses two teams play each other close.  Columbus is 5-0 SU and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 when playing in Detroit.  Columbus will have their backup goalie starting tonight.  Detroit has had a lot of injury issues, forcing their younger players into the starting lineup and more expanded roles. History tells us this will be a close game.  I am taking Columbus and the Under 5.5.

Nashville-160 is taking on the Rangers in New York+140.  The O/U is set at 6.  In the last 3 years Nashville is 14-5 on the road when the total is 6 or more. Head to head the Rangers have had the advantage as of late.  But Nashville has the Goalie edge here and so I am taking Nashville-160.

Winnipeg Jets-110 travel to Saint Louis to take on the Blues-110.  The O/U is set at 6.  Over the last 3 years, Winnipeg is 7-2 vs. St. Louis. Add that to what I think Winnipeg as having a decisive advantage at Goalie and I will take them, Winnipeg.

I am running out of time and I need to get this out, so I am taking Dallas over Arizona.  I am taking Colorado over Minnesota.  and I am taking Las Vegas on the PL over Philadelphia.

Good Luck to All!!!

NUMBERS

The ratings are from 0-12.  0 being even and 12 being the best.

What do the numbers say?  Here are the leans from the numbers:

Boston+12, Carolina+4, Pittsburgh+2, Chicago+7, Columbus+4, Nashville+10, Winnipeg+4, Dallas+10, Colorado+4, and Las Vegas+6.

*Be cautious about laying anything over -175.  Look to either not play the game, or to go with the Puck Line (-1.5). Some books let you change the PL to -1 for reduced juice.

Thank you for all of you patreon subscribers / Oddsbreakers members for helping us out.   Thank you listeners for being here as well because we wouldn’t be much without you.   Going to have a members page for premium subscribers soon showing other handicappers free picks.

Question from Matt Holmes.   Should you cover a large spread bet by laying -1200.   No.   I’d rather put more units on the spread if I feel good about it.   What if your QB gets injured or if it starts rain storming and the match-up changes.   What if your RB decides to fumble it a few times.   Too much variance to lay that kind of juice in football.   I would only lay higher juice if the spread is -3.5 and I want to bet the game you will lay about -170 but at the same time I haven’t cared enough to do that in a while because i have so many other options and can stay off the game.

MY TOP 10:

1. Ohio State – Played TCU and Penn State
2. Alabama – Played no ranked teams
3. Penn State – Played 1 ranked team
4. Georgia – Played no ranked teams
5. Oklahoma – Played no ranked teams
6. Notre Dame – Played 2 power ranked teams and now has a better QB
7. LSU – Played and beat 2 ranked teams
8. Clemson – Played no ranked teams and QB issues
9. Washington – Played 1 ranked team at their state
10. Auburn – Barley lost to LSU and should not have.   Beat Washington

North Carolina vs Miami – Never bet against Miami at a night game.   Wisconsin last year was the exception to that rule.   The hype and turnover chain is too much.    These kids in Miami are playing at 120%.

Memphis vs Tulane – Another rule.   Never bet against a smaller conference home dog after they played a powerhouse like Ohio State.   Ever hear the saying that when you play better competition it makes your that much better?   Well it is true and we saw it this game.   I am pissed at myself for not being on this.

Syracuse vs Clemson –

Man when Trevor Lawrence went out I thought Cuse had a shot to win this outright.   Clemson’s 3rd string back up Chase Brice did a fantastic job to win this game in the 4th quarter.   That 4th and 6 was huge.    We will monitor Lawrence’s status going forward.

West Virginia vs Texas Tech –  Same deal here.   Alan Bowman was injured in the first half but backup Joe Duffey did a good job with 2 TDs until late in the game.   Tech was coming back down by 7 and then a pick 6 by Duffy deep in the 4th quarter killed it.

K State vs Texas – This game was slow just like we thought.  Texas looks pretty legit and I can’t wait till the Oklahoma game next week

Baylor vs Oklahoma – I kept thinking I was going to cover the 24 but Oklahoma kept scoring a billion touchdowns.

South Carolina vs Kentucky – Wow were many wrong on this game.  I am so Glad I stayed off of it.   Kentucky is legit this year for sure

Umass vs Ohio – Ohio came out flat this game and worked there way to a tie at half then won by 16.   This was a bad handicap on my part but I’ll take it.

Michigan vs Northwestern – Almost an upset here but you can just tell when a talented team is down in the first half, it is better to bet on them the second half.   We had North Western +14 here and when Michigan was down at the half we bought back Michigan -10 and had a 14 point middle…   Always do this when the more talented team is down at half.   ALWAYS

Va Tech vs Duke – This team came to play and this team came to win.   They knew Duke was good and turned it way up!   Game planned well for this team.   Huge Props to Justin Fuente here.

Oregon vs Cal – Huge get up spot for Oregon and they got the job done.   Cal had a bye week before this and let down many sharp players

Stanford vs Notre Dame – Well things really worked out well for the Irish when the switched to Ian Book at Quarterback.   They pretty much dominated this game defensively especially and the game was over by the middle of the third quarter.   Notre Dame is now a huge playoff contender with Va Tach and Syracuse as their toughest opponents left.

BYU vs Washington – Well this one I certainly got wrong and so did many others if you pay attention to sports betting media.   BYU looked just like a below average team and nothing like the team that played Wisconsin so well.   Washington is still in the Playoff Mix.

Ohio State vs Penn State – This game went very similair to last year.   Penn State gets a lead in the 3rd and 4th quarter and blows it late against the best athletes in college football next to Bama.   Ohio state should be on cruise control now because Michigan State isn’t that good and Michigan isn’t quite at that level either.    We bet this one correctly to members tho giving the first half under and second half over.

Let down spots:

Ohio State hosting Indiana

Clemson at Wake Forest

Notre Dame at Va Tech

Florida State at Miami

Tulane at Cincinnati

Get up Spots:

Baylor hosting K State

Stanford hosting Utah

Cal at Arizona

Mississippi State hosting Auburn

Memphis Hosting Uconn

Florida Atlantic hosting Old Dominion

Syracuse at Pittsburgh

BYU hosting Utah State

Buffalo at Central Michigan

Michigan State hosting North Western is a revenge spot

Look Ahead Spots

Wisconsin looking past Nebraksa to at Michigan

Michigan looking past Maryland to Wisconsin

Michigan State looking past NU to Penn State – I will be on Penn state this game week 7

Missouri looking past at South Carolina to Bama

LSU looking past Florida to Georgia

Central Florida looking past SMU to at Memphis is possible

Washington looking past UCLA to at Oregon.   Could be a flat spot