NBA Picks and Predictions – Jan 25, 2021

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January 25, 2021

76ers -6.5 (-110), 1.5 units: This is a square pick but so be it. Joel Embiid is playing lights out and Philadelphia is probably the hottest team in the NBA right now. Give me the significantly better team in a good spot after they didn’t play their best ball on Saturday against the very same Pistons. They should dominate game 2. Note: Philadelphia has covered 6 of their last 7 against Detroit.

Live Bet Total Opportunity- Nets vs. Heat: Look to live bet the over on the Nets/Heat game if the scoring slows down at any point. High scoring NBA teams usually score around 30 points per quarter, so if you see a quarter-total dropping well below 60 in this game, it would be wise to jump on the over. The total is set at 236.5, and for good reason. Expect more fireworks!

Mavericks win (+105), 1 unit: The Mavs have played up and down lately and still haven’t hit their stride. The Nuggets are coming off 2 straight OT games, with Jokic having a sensational 29 point, 22 rebound outing on Saturday against the Suns. As I predicted, the Nuggets were due for some positive regression and it’s shown in 3 straight wins. Now I think it’s Dallas’ turn. The Mavs have allowed average offenses to score 112, 117, and 133 in their last 3 contests. I expect improvement tonight. Dallas travels back home against a conference foe in what should have a mid-season playoff feel. I think Luka Doncic has a big game and the Mavericks top-10 defense reappears.

Celtics -4 (-110), 1.5 units: This is a trap game for Boston after an outrageous 141 point game against the Cavs last night. The books seem to know that, since they’re only a 4 point favorite against obviously weaker competition in Chicago. The Bulls are an improved team, but they’re not on the level of Boston. Jayson Tatum returns tonight for the Celtics, which is a huge boost, and I think Boston overcomes a bad spot and gets another solid team-effort in Chicago. If you want to bet on the Bulls, I’d suggest a first half bet.

NCAAM Basketball Picks and Predictions – Jan 25, 2021

By

Chris R. Farley

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January 25, 2021

Alcorn State +5 (-110), 1.5 units: What a scintillating battle it will be as two of the worst teams in the country face off when Alcorn State battles Alabama A&M (did you know that Alabama A&M was a college? Be honest). In all seriousness, these are the matchups where a handicapper can find real value. Why? Because the books (and the public) don’t pay as much attention to these weaker conferences and weaker teams. Insert Alcorn State. The consensus in the write-ups I’ve read is that Alabama A&M, who’s undefeated at 4-0 so far, is the right side. Not so fast. Sure, Alcorn State isn’t an impressive team by any means, but their stats are skewed because they’ve faced much better competition: UAB, Liberty, Houston, and ahem, Baylor. For a lowly team like Alcorn State, of course that would drive down their stats. But if you look at how they play against similar opponents (Grambling St., Arkansas Pine-Bluff, MS Valley), their offense is efficient and their defense is solid. Alabama A&M, while they’re 4-0 against sub-average opponents, is no juggernaut or elite team. Therefore, there’s inherent value in Alcorn State. I’ll take the dog and the points.

UVA -6.5 (-115), 1.15 units: Syracuse is a great example of a very solid team that can beat up on weaker opponents and could upset teams in the tournament. The problem is this is a terrible spot for the Orangemen, and UVA is an elite opponent. It’s two days after a big win (they were favored) against VA Tech and the Orangemen’s confidence is probably sky-high. Meanwhile, UVA had to scratch and claw to beat another solid team in GA Tech and squeaked by with a 2 point win. The Cavaliers, who are one of the most well-coached teams in the nation, will clean up some of their sluggish play and should be much more efficient on offense tonight. Well-coached teams improve throughout the season. That doesn’t bode well for a Syracuse team who can get soundly defeated when they face good defenses (Pittsburgh, Rutgers). Remember what UVA did to Clemson? I think that’s what tonight could look like. I’m on the Cavaliers tonight.

Utah State -5.5 (-110), 1 unit: This is a difficult handicap, especially since UNLV has had a considerably tougher schedule thus far (UNLV- 70th, Utah St.- 169th). The difference here is Utah’s State’s defense. Ranked 10th in adjusted defense according to KenPom, the Aggies absolutely stifle teams, especially on the road. The spot is also better for the Aggies, who are coming off a tough double-header against Colorado State and will look to crush an inferior foe. The challenge won’t be as grand against UNLV. I’ll take Utah State for a humble 1 unit.

NBA Picks and Predictions – Jan 24, 2021

By

Chris R. Farley

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January 24, 2021

Collin Sexton having his way shooting a layup over James Harden

Pacers -1 (-110), 1 unit: The Raptors have started playing better but the Pacers have a deeper roster and they’re healthier coming into this contest. Lowry is still nursing a toe issue, so Toronto’s offense will take a bit hit today if he’s limited. Combine all that with the fact that the Raptors are a terrible 1-6 on the road– I like a solid Pacers team to sneak in a W before everyone watches the NFC title game.

Cavs +6 (-110), 1.5 units: This bet is based on the way Collin Sexton and the Cavs are playing right now. Defeating the Nets once could have been an aberration; defeating the Nets twice was a statement. Cleveland comes into this game feeling very confident and they don’t feel like the type of team who falls to a big let-down spot. They believe in themselves and they have a Bills-like feel. Even better, the books haven’t caught up. The Celtics need a win after getting beat soundly by the 76ers twice, so this is sort of a contrarian spot pick, but they’re still without Jason Taytum and Sexton has been all but impossible to stop. This line is actually on the rise, so look to grab something higher than 6, if possible.

NFL Conference Championship Plays

By

Kiev O'Neil

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January 24, 2021

Tampa Bay vs Green Bay -3.5 O/U 51

The Battle of the Bays! This is going to be a very gun matchup with these two high powered quarterbacks. These teams played before and it was the Buccaneers only win vs a team .500 or better until last week. I think that the weather is the first thing that we have to look at this game. Light wind and possible snow is always in the cards in Green Bay. Lets look at some of the respected rankings from football outsiders. DVOA has Tampa number 2 and Green Bay number 3. I disagree with having Tampa Bay so high but Brady in the playoffs is a whole different animal. From a power ratings perspective, I have this game Green Bay -5.75 due to a great home field. Ask any Detroit Lion fan, no team has a better home field advantage than Green Bay. I have Green Bay -2.5 my algorithm but I also think that Green Bay left a lot of points on the board when playing some of the weaker teams.

Let’s look at some strengths and weaknesses. Green Bay’s weakness is against the run allowing 4.6 yards per rush but Tampa Bay only ranks 23rd in the lea gue at 4.1 yards per rush and 27th at 99 yards per game. I will say that Tampa Bay has been running the ball better lately. Tampa’s Strength is against the run although Kamara had 85 yards rushing last game at 4.7 per attempt. Green Bay runs the ball well at 4.8 yards per rush. One thing to note is that Via Vea is eligible to return from injury this week which is interesting. Tampa’s weakness is their pass defense allowing 246 passing yards per game while Green Bay can certainly throw the ball well with Rodgers ranking 10th in passing yards per game at 259 yards per game and 2nd in yards per attempt at 7.8. This shows you that Green Bay could have more yards if they didn’t run clock in the 4th quarter. Tampa’s Strength is obviously the pass with Tom Brady and Green Bay does have a better than average pass defense allowing 11th best 6.5 yards passing per attempt but the question is if Green Bay can get to Tom Brady. Green Bay ranks 26th in quarterback pressure rate at 20.9%.

One thing the Bucs do well is getting to the quarterback, and they rank a nice 3rd in pressure rate ranking and 4th in sacks. Rodgers seems to play well under pressure more this year than any year so there’s that. The one advantage that Tampa might have is that I will say is that they have more weapons than Green Bay and there is something about their matchup last time that really confused the Packers. I think it was kind of a fluke where everyone has a bad game from time to time but it’s worth mentioning. When guys like Scottie Miller and Tyler Johnson are making great plays then you have to be worried some.

The best play I think is the first half because Green Bay starts games out firing. I’ll grab Green Bay -2.5 1st half for 2.5 stars but I also like the prop betting market here. Prop Plays will be Leonard Fournette over receiving yards since Green Bay has a good Pass D with Jaire Alexander and Josh Jackson in the slot. Tampa will throw the ball to him. Believe it or not, he catches more balls than people think. Prop Play will be Robert Tonyan scores a TD. He has 11 Tds this year which is tied with Arron Jones. I might take him over his yardage as well. I don’t like Tampa’s linebackers in coverage.

Green Bay 1st half -2.5 stars and Full game -3.5 at 2 stars

PROPS: Robert Tonyan scores a TD -111 – 1.5 star premium shared

Buffalo vs Kansas City -3 O/U 53.5

This should be a great game of 2 high powered offenses and pretty average defenses.
This game already happened once with the Bills losing at home to Kansas City 26-17. The Chiefs covered and the game went under mainly because of Clyde Edwards Helair rushing 161 yards. With Edwards-Helaire banged up, Can Damien Williams step right in.
There is some speculation that Mahomes might not play this game due to his concussion but I would have to think that unless Mahomes is half braindead, he will be starting this game.
Let’s look at the metrics. Both teams are somewhat weak against the run with the bills allowing 4.7 yards per rushing attempt and the Chiefs allowing 4.5. The Chiefs run the ball much better however at 4.5 rushing yards per attempt to the Bills 4.1 so Kansas City with a nice advantage here and especially because Mahomes is the best QB in the league. If the Bills cheat up to stop the run, they could get torched. I think they will cheat up being that it worked vs the Ravens.
Both teams pass defenses are pretty close giving up about 233 yards per game but Buffalo has a slight advantage at 6.4 passing yards per attempt to KC’s 6.7.
The Bills QB pressure rate is only 21% while the Chiefs is at 24% but I don’t think that is a big enough difference and Mahomes is the best against the Blitz as it is. Partly because he extends the play with his feet an Kelcey seems to know when that happens and he always hooks right into a place where Mahomes knows where he will be.
My Algorithm has this game 26.5 to 26.5 and it’s mostly due to the fact that the Bills are more efficient on offense at 12.9 yards per point to Kansas City’s 14.3, but I think that both of these teams are very capable of putting up plenty of points. Both of these teams have been leading in the 4th quarter a lot this year. KC did also get back doored a lot but still won the game without covering.
My power ratings has Kansas City 2.5 points better on a neutral field so this spread should be around 5ish with a healthy Mahomes.
My heart wants to bet the Bills and I really want them to win but my brain says to bet the Chiefs. I think there will be more points scored this game so if the weather holds up.

Kansas City -3 and Over 53.5 – 3 star premium play

Prop: Josh Allen over 40 rushing yards – .5 star premium shared

NCAAM Picks and Predictions – Jan 24, 2021

By

Chris R. Farley

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January 24, 2021

UNC Wilmington -4.5 (-110), 1 unit: Delaware have one of the worst defenses in the country and the Seahawks play really well, and average 80 ppg, at home. I see this game going just like yesterday’s contest.

Navy -2.5 (-110), 1 unit: Navy controlled the first game from start to finish, playing comfortably ahead throughout. I tried really hard to find a reason to fade Navy in the rematch, but I just don’t see it. Navy is just better than Army and frankly, this line is too low.

Nevada -4 (-110), 2 units: This is game 2 of a doubleheader and Nevada never should have lost the first contest. The Wolfpack shot 4/25 from 3-point land and their leading scorer (Grant Sherfield) was ice cold, shooting only 2/16 from the field and 0/6 from beyond the arc. While all that was true, the game was still tied in the game’s final stretch. Nevada is due for significant positive regression today, and the revenge angle should give us a convincing cover.

SD State -17 (-110), 1.5 units: San Diego St. has a truly exceptional defense, allowing only 60.7 ppg. Meanwhile, Air Force only averages 59.1 ppg on offense… yikes. Game 2 of the doubleheader will look a lot like the first— a blowout.

NCAAM Basketball Picks and Predictions – Jan 23, 2021

By

Chris R. Farley

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January 23, 2021

An LSU basketball player dribbling down the court

Kansas wins (-120), 1.2 units: Kansas is the slight favorite here in a tough spot at Oklahoma, but one stat stands out: Kansas has had the far tougher schedule thus far. After facing the monolith that is Baylor, expect Kansas to come out motivated and efficient over a weaker foe.

Ohio State +5 (-110), 1.5 units: Ohio State is in a better spot here after a tough loss against red-hot Purdue (until last night), but are they really that much worse than Wisconsin? This is a pretty even matchup, but the Buckeyes outscore and out-rebound Wisconsin on average; the latter is a huge stat in a big matchup like this. Give me the Buckeyes to keep it close.

Niagara/Quinnipiac over 128.5 (-110), 2 units: These two teams faced off yesterday in a really odd game. They both shot terribly from the field (36.5% and 31.7%) and were disgustingly bad beyond the arc (27% and 21%). Positive regression has to be in store here- I’m on the over, and I lean Quinnipiac to get even in the series.

Purdue Fort Wayne wins (+105), 1 unit: I don’t know these two teams too well, but I know that Green Bay shot probably their best game of the year last night, going 49% from the field and 42% from 3-point land, a full 20% better than Purdue Fort Wayne. Purdue Fort Wayne scores more, allows less, and rebounds more than Green Bay on a game-by-game basis. I think things regress to the norm and Purdue FW pulls out the victory here.

Milwaukee +3.5 (-110), 1 unit: Milwaukee and Cleveland State played yesterday and the game was close throughout. Originally I had Cleveland State winning big again, but how much better are they than Milwaukee? Milwaukee shot below 30%, CSU over 44%, and still CSU only won by 11 points (and the game was close until late into the second half). If the underdog plays even a little better, this has to be a closer game, right? I’ll take a small shot on the dog.

LSU wins (+110), 1.5 units: KenPom ranks Kentucky as playing the much tougher schedule, but I’m not sure if I see it. Why, because they faced Kansas? LSU is the vastly more efficient and effective offense, and I like the Tigers to keep playing aggressive after that big letdown against Alabama. This is a play-on for LSU and a fade on Kentucky at home.

Northwestern +5.5 (-110), 2 units: This is the kind of game Northwestern can get up for and win. Why is Penn State favored? Because they finally won? What would this
line be if they lost? I’m not overly impressed by a win over Rutgers but Penn State may come into this thinking a little too highly of themselves. With the proverbial monkey off the Nittany Lions’ back, Give me Northwestern in a close contest.

NBA Picks and Predictions – Jan 23, 2021

By

Chris R. Farley

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January 23, 2021

Lebron James posting up against a Bucks' player

Pelicans / Timberwolves over 221 (-110), 1.5 units: Well, if the Pelicans keep playing at THAT pace (I had the under in the Pelicans/Jazz game 2 nights ago and I’m still fuming), then we’re looking at a lot more overs. Assuming they do, and why wouldn’t they since it worked so well, a fast-paced Pelicans offense will routinely win against the last-placed Timberwolves defense. Minnesota can score plenty, too, so this game should, emphasis on should, be a sure-fire over. Don’t let me down twice, New Orleans!

Lakers -9 (-110), 1.5 units: The Lakers, who are as disciplined and consistent as it comes, now have something extra to motivate them- maintaining their road game winning streak. The Bulls come off a nice win in Charlotte and turn around a day later to face the defending champs the following night. Not an easy task. The Bulls are on the rise, but the talent, coaching, and teamwork disparity (not to mention statistical disparity in just about every category) between these teams is high. It’s LAL in another double digit win for me.

UFC 257 Main Event Free Play – Sports Betting

By

Kiev O'Neil

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January 23, 2021

Dustin Poirier vs Conner McGregor -270

This is going to be a wonderful fight to watch. Both fighters are the same age at 32 years old and both are very hungry show the world who is the best. Conner is back and better than ever. We saw him destroy Donald Cerrone about a year ago in the first round with a head kick and punches. The rest of his record really speaks for itself at 22-4 with 19 KOs, 1 submission and 2 decisions. When Conner fights he goes right for the jugular and finishes a lot of his fights in the first 2 rounds which is why you see so much juice on the under 2.5 rounds prop at -170. Now Dustin Poirier is a very deserving opponent for this matchup and he isn’t no slouch himself. He is 26-6-1 with only 1 loss since 2014 to the best fighter in the world Kabib Nurmagomedov who has beaten Conner himself back in 2018. His next loss dating back to 2014 was actually his only other fight that he had with McGregor where he suffered his only KO/TKO. Poirier also likes to finish fights early with 12 KO/TKOs, 7 submissions and 7 decisions. He has some great wins vs guys like Max Halloway and Justin Gaethje. Now the key to making money in this fight is to look at the weaknesses. Conner has never been knocked out but in his only 4 losses, he has been submitted each time. Poirier does have 7 submissions and he would be crazy to not go for that in this huge fight. The payoff for this is +1100 which is huge if Dustin can pull this off. On the other end of the spectrum, Conner is that great of a fighter and will probably win by KO/TKO DQ but the price on that is quite high at -300. Being that Conner has only 1 submission and he has went the distance only twice in his whole career and has never been knocked out, I have to think that he is going to win by knockout and laying -200 has more value in this situation. From a betting standpoint, I hope Dustin wins by at 11-1 but I’ll take the 1-2 with Conner as well.

McGregor -200 to win by KO/TKO DQ – 2 star premium shared

Dustin Poirier to win by submission +1100 – .5 star premium shared

BONUS: Dan Hooker and Michael Chandler to go the distance -105 – 1 star premium shared

College Basketball 1/23/21 Free plays – Sports Betting

By

Kiev O'Neil

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January 23, 2021

Baylor vs Oklahoma State +9 O/U 147

Usually, the best defensive oriented teams play slow. Ask Virginia and Texas Tech that question. Somehow Baylor is able to play fast and do exceptionally well at defense while still ranking number 4 in offense. Baylor is undefeated and their closest win was against Iowa State believe it or not when they only won by 7 points. I wonder if Baylor was asleep that game. I must say that I am very impressed by Scott Drew and I am not sure that Gonzaga is the number one team. In saying that, I feel Oklahoma State is a bit underrated. They have had their share of punches this year but they also like to step up in big games winning against Marquette, Texas Tech and Kansas. The Cowboys have a stud freshman guard in Cade Cunningham who leads the team in points scored as well as assists. He will be motivated to upset this Baylor team who just got off of a tough game vs Kansas. Believe it or not, Baylor can get a little sloppy with the ball ranking only 8th in conference play in turnover rate. The Bears also have to regress at some point ranking 4th in three point percentage at over 42%. Both teams play fast believe it or not with the Cowboys ranking 40th in seconds per possession and Baylor ranking 58th. I think that the over is in play this game if it drops down below 145 due to the pace and the fact that Oklahoma State ranks number 3 in offense in the Big 12 with Baylor ranking number 1. I also will look to take the home dog here and see if I can catch Baylor sleeping.

Oklahoma State +9 – 1.5 star premium and sprinkle

LSU vs Kentucky -1.5 O/U 147

Kentucky just isn’t a good team this year and this is why you need to stay on that fade train. Kentucky gets bets because of their name and their name only. How else could any team ranking 298th in effective FG % at 45.9%and 294th in offensive turnovers be a favorite to an LSU team who ranks 33rd in effective FG% at 54.8%. Both teams are coming off of a loss but LSU’s loss came with their worst shooting day at 37% when they average 48% all year long. When Kentucky lost to Georgia, they actually shot 42% which is above their average of 41%. I think Kentucky will once again struggle with LSUs speed like they did vs Alabama, Georgia and Auburn this year. Take the short road dog.

LSU +1.5 – 2 star premium shared

UFC 257 Picks and Predictions

By

Chris R. Farley

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January 22, 2021

Dan Hooker and Michael Chandler weighing in before their fight

UFC 257 has a few marquee matchups and we’re excited to sit back and take it all in before the big AFC/NFC Championship games on Sunday. Below are four value picks that are worth a look. Don’t overspend on any of these – they’re cheap for a reason – but I expect at least 1 or 2 of these to hit. Wouldn’t be shocked if they all hit (wouldn’t write about it if I didn’t feel that way!). Not seen here is my full write-up on Poirier vs. McGregor – check out the full analysis. I cannot WAIT for that battle!

Movsar Evloev by points (-150): Movsar is the big favorite here for a reason at more than -300 odds, but unlike most dominant fighters, he loves to go the distance. Since joining the UFC, Movsar has yet to win a fight by anything BUT a decision. I think this is the best value bet for the early fight.

Julianna Pena wins (+113): Julianna has only lost against UFC’s elite. Sara McMahon is a small favorite but this is Pena’s chance to re-establish herself among the best. I get why McMahon is favored with her depth of experience (she faced the likes of Ronda Rousey and Miesha Tate), but she had recent losses against average opponents and it tells me the game is starting to wear her down. I trust a younger vet who has more to gain.

Amanda Ribas within distance (+185): Ribas is the younger, stronger fighter and the clear favorite at -325 odds. Her last fight ended in an impressive submission over UFC star Paige VanZant. I have full confidence that she’ll win against a vastly inferior opponent, but what’s different about Amanda is how she finishes fights. Unlike a lot of UFC’s female fighters, most of Amanda’s fights end early, with the majority of her 10 wins by TKO (3) or submission (4). I think she could easily do it again Saturday night, so this is fantastic value.

Michael Chandler wins (+115): The striker or the wrestler… We’ve seen this time and time again, and more often than not it’s the wrestler who dominates. I’ll be favoring that side here again, as Michael Chandler makes his long awaited UFC debut. While Hooker has been parading around Fight Island with a nonchalant grin, Chandler can’t wait to tell everyone how excited he is to finally be in the UFC. I love intangibles like that before a big fight. Hooker is dangerous, but Chandler is highly motivated to prove himself and I think he controls the fight on the ground and walks away with a win.