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College Football Week 7 Sharp Money

As of Wednesday Afternoon:

Sharp money on:

Georgia State +5 to +3.5 at Arkansas State – 61% tickets and 98% of the money.

Navy at +1 at East Carolina – 54% tickets and 80% of the money.

Texas State +3 at South Alabama – 36% tickets and 90% of the money.

Clemson -27 at Georgia Tech 60% tickets and 80% of the money.

Western Kentucky +14 at UAB – 43% tickets and 64% of the money.

Notre dame -14 to -16.5 hosting Louisville – 51% tickets and 78% of the money.

North Texas +7 at MTSU – 55% tickets and 76% of the money.

Southern Miss -3.5 to -5.5 at UTEP – 60% tickets and 97% of the money.

Sharp Totals:

BYU vs Houston over 60 to 63 – 52% tickets and 99% of the money.

Texas State vs South Alabama over 56.5 to 58.5 – 27% tickets and 89% of the money.

Liberty vs Syracuse under 56.5 to 53 – 39% tickets and 65% of the money.

South Florida vs Temple under 54.5 – 22% tickets and 57% of the money.

Auburn vs South Carolina over 50 to 51.5 – 43% tickets and 90% of the money.

Western Kentucky vs UAB over 44.5 – 44% tickets and 78% of the money.

Army vs UTSA under 51.5 to 49.5 – 35% tickets and 89% of the money.

UCF vs Memphis over 74.5 to 75 – Dual Action 66% tickets and 90% of the money.

Virginia vs Wake Forest under 63.5 to 61.5 – 38% tickets and 68% of the money.

Texas A&M vs Mississippi State over 54.5 – 18% tickets and 69% of the money.

North Texas vs MTSU over 67.5 to 72.5 – 46% tickets and 90% of the money.

Boston College at Virginia Tech over 57.5 to 62.5 – 46% tickets and 94% of the money.

Georgia vs Alabama over 56.5 – 38% tickets and 73% of the money.

Podcast 59 – 20 – College Football Week 7 & NFL Week 6 With Doug Upstone – UFC – Sharp Movements – Sports Betting

Sports Betting
Sports Betting - The OddsBreakers - Wagering - Handicapping

We have a huge show for you today!   Doug Upstone @DougUpstone from Docssports.com is back to break down some NFL Week 6 and Cub Fan Danny @CubFanDanny comes on to give out some plays for UFC fight night 180!  First, Kiev gives out 3 college plays that he likes for this weekend’s games.  We are 30-20-3 in College Football so far this year.  Next, Doug Upstone comes on to break down a huge NFL card for the weekend!  Who are the top 5 teams?  Which teams are overrated and which are under rated?  We give out some leans and lots of plays!  Then, Kiev gives out his REFUSE TO LOSE teaser and his BOW TO THE GAMBLING GODS parlay that pays out at 2.5-1.  Next, Kiev gets into sharp line movements for the weekend in both College Football and the NFL.  Finally, Cub Fan Danny comes on to break down the UFC card for this weekend with some plays!

NFL:  Kansas City vs Buffalo – Green Bay vs Tampa Bay – Cleveland vs Pittsburgh and More!

NCAA: BYU vs Houston – Ole Miss vs Arkansas and more!

#Sportsbetting #Gamblingtwitter #NCAA #NFL #UFC #Horseracing

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NFL Week 5 Misleading Final Scores and Week 6 Motivational Spots

Misleading Scores:

The Buccaneers out-gained the Bears 339 to 249 yet lost 20-19.   1-1 Turnover ratio.  Tampa lost Via Vea for the season which really hurts.

Pittsburgh only out-gained Philadelphia 367 to 336 yet won 38-29.  3-2 turnover ratio hurt the Eagles.

Minnesota out-gained Seattle 449 to 314 yet lost 27-26.  2-1 turnover ratio and Russell Wilson took care of that.

Motivational Spots:

Let Down Spots:

Houston at Tennessee after finally getting a W.

Miami at NY Jets is a let down spot for sure.

Get up Spots:  

NY Giants hosting Washington might be their only shot at a W for a while.

Jets hosting Miami is their only shot at a W.

Falcons at Vikings need that W bad.  Maybe Julio will be back?

Look ahead spots:

Panthers looking past the Bears to at the Saints

 

 

 

Alan Cashman’s Week 7 CFB Analytic Game Projections

Follow on Twitter @TheCashmanwins

Below are this week’s CFB Analytic Projection Models.  Analytic C went 15-8 last week and is now 52-24-2 this season ATS in College Football.

Week 7 College Football Projections

Good luck.

Alan

@TheCashmanwins

Follow Cashman on Facebook

College Football Week 7 Motivational Spots

Let Down Spots:

Texas A&M at Mississippi State after beating top 5 Florida outright.

Missouri hosting Vanderbilt after upsetting LSU

Boston College at Virginia Tech after beating Pitt outright.

Get Up Spots:

Arkansas State after losing to Coastal Carolina a few weeks back.

Tennessee hosting Kentucky after the Georgia reality check.

Louisville at Notre Dame after an embarrassing start to the year.

Both LSU and Florida coming off losses will be motivated this game..

Both UCF and Memphis coming off losses a few weeks back.

Florida State hosting North Carolina needs to show something.

Pitt at Miami after two bad 1 point losses in a row.

Look Ahead Spots:

Notre Dame could be looking past Louisville to Pitt.

Missouri could be looking past Vanderbilt to Florida (Sandwich Spot).

Oklahoma State could be looking past Baylor to Iowa State.  (very possible)

Cincinnati could be looking past Tulsa to SMU.

SMU could be looking past at Tulane to Cincinnati.

 

 

 

College Football Week 6 Misleading Final Scores

Louisville out-gained Georgia Tech 471 to 450 yet lost 46-27.  3-0 turnover ratio killed them.

Temple out-gained Navy 407 to 299 yards yet lost by 2.  A 1-0 turnover ratio and Navy’s 4th down conversions did them in.

Virginia out-gained NC State 405 to 363 yet lost 38-21.   4-1 turnover ratio hurt bad.

TCU out-gained Kansas State 342 to 289 yet lost 21-14.  A 3-2 turnover ratio did them in.

UTEP out-gained LA Tech 261 to 210 yet lost 21-17.  1-0 turnover ratio is all.

Mississippi State out-gained Kentucky 290 to 156 and lost 24-2.   6-1 turnover ratio took care of that garbage.

 

Fantasy Football Week 6

Bye Weeks:   Raiders, Saints, Seahawks, and Chargers.

Key Injuries:

Dak Prescot QB – Broken Ankle and out for the season.

Dalvin Cook RB – Groin and is day to day.

Sammy Watkins WR – Hammy and is day to day.

Dionte Johnson WR – Back injury.

Keenan Allen WR – Back Injury.

AJ Green WR – Hamstring injury.

Waiver Wire:

Chase Claypool WR – 4 TDs 11 targets 110 yards receiving.  Wow

Alexander Mattison RB – He will get more time with Cook banged up.  40% rostered.

Ryan Fitzpatrick QB – Looking hot for the fish.

Justin Herbert QB – Chargers looking much better.

Tee Higgens WR – 8 Targets last week and with AJ Green down, he is the man.

Andy Dalton QB – Better than what people think and he has some weapons.

Dolphins Def – Playing the Jets.

JD McKissic RB – If you are desperate.   Washington plays from behind.

Non-starters trending up for week 6:

Alexander Mattison RB – Great matchup here against a bad Falcons team.

Devonte Freeman RB – vs a bad Washington Team.

Antonio Gibson RB – vs a bad Giants team.

Devonte Parker WR – vs a terrible Jets team.

Preston Williams WR – vs a terrible Jets team.

Justin Jefferson WR – vs a bad Atlanta D.

Adrian Peterson RB – vs the Jags.

James Robinson RB – vs the Lions.

Demarcus Robinson WR – With Watkins out and Buffalo has the 5th worst passing yards D.

Busts:

Baker Mayfield QB – vs the Steelers.   He is also banged up a bit.

Odell Beckham WR – vs the Steelers.   Need Baker for this.

Aaron Jones RB – at Tampa Bay isn’t a good matchup for him.

Joe Mixon RB – vs an angry Colts team.

Miles Sanders RB – at Baltimore.

Tyler Boyd WR – vs the Colts Pass D.

Nasty Sleeper:  Alexander Mattison RB – vs the Falcons

 

 

 

Podcast 58 – 20 – NFL Week 5 and NCAA Week 6 Recap and Betting Spots – Fantasy Football Week 6 – Sports Betting

We have a great show for you today!  Kiev is back from vacation and had another successful weekend in sports betting!  First, Kiev recaps the weekend in football.  Who disappointed and who exceeded expectations?  In the NFL, which 1 loss teams are overrated and which 1 win teams are underrated?   Next, we get into College Football misleading final scores and motivational spots for week 7.  Then, we talk about some misleading final scores in the NFL and some motivational spots.  What was real and what was garbage time?  Next, Kiev gives out a free College Football play for week 7!  Then, D-Nasty comes on to talk some fantasy football.  Who are the key injuries?  Who are we picking up on waivers?   Who is trending up for next weekend and who will bust?  Finally we give out a nasty sleeper to help you win your week!

#Sportsbetting #Gamblingtwitter #NCAA #NFL #UFC #Horseracing

Should you need a sports book please visit jazzsports.ag and use the promo code, “Oddsbreakers” to get a 50% sign up bonus!  Terms, conditions and location apply.

theoddsbreakers.com

For only 17.99 a month become an ODDSBREAKER’S MEMBER and gain access to all premium picks BEFORE the line moves please visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop!

NFL Week 5 Free Plays

Arizona vs NY Jets +6.5 O/U 47– The Jets are bad and when I say bad, I mean the worst team in the NFL.  I am not sure their coach survives Adam Gase much longer.  It’s not just the fact that they commit the most personal fouls or having a 14 point average loss margin, they just look disorganized and don’t seem to care.  Another big problem for them is that their quarterback Sam Darnold has a banged up shoulder and might not play.   Joe Flacco would have to come in to start if Darnold can’t go.   The good news for the Jets is that they at least get some guys back from IR like Laveon Bell, Blake Cashman and Denzel Mims.  The Cardinals are hungry after suffering a 2 game losing streak at home.   This is somewhat of a must win for them being that they have the Cowboys on deck and I expect a good effort this game.  The Cardinals should be able to get their running game going with Kenyon Drake against a bad Jets defense.  This should also compliment play action where Murray can just take off running instead of passing the ball.   I have the Cardinals an 8.5 favorite here and should be able to cover the 6.5.

Arizona -6.5 – 2 star premium shared play

Carolina vs Atlanta -1.5 O/U 54  – This 0-4 Atlanta team is desperate and I still think that they are better than the Carolina Panthers as a whole and especially are at home.  The Falcon’s owned the Panthers last year winning both games by double digits and I expect close to the same here.   Even with Julio being banged up all year the Falcons are 8th in Yards per game at 396 to Carolina’s 390.   One thing that I will say is that the Panthers are better than people have thought going to LA Chargers and Arizona winning both games outright.   Mike Davis seems like a nice fit replacing an Injured Christian McCaffery.  There is one thing that sticks out the most to me when looking at these teams.   Atlanta has had a much harder schedule than Carolina ranking 3rd on Jeff Sagarin while the Panther’s schedule ranked 15th.   Carolina was able to surprise some teams but they will be facing a team similar to the Raiders this week and they lost that game at home.  I like Atlanta with the short favorite.

Atlanta -1.5 – 2 star premium shared play 

LV Raiders vs Kansas City -13 O/U 56.5

No reason for the Chiefs to get margin here and I think the W will just be fine.  As of recently, a player who hugged Patrick Mahomes in Stephon Gilmore just tested positive for Covid so there is a lot of uncertainty this game.  The Raiders on the other hand are in a must perform type spot after suffering 2 bad losses in a row.  Las Vegas has been smitten by some injuries to some key players but I expect Henry Ruggs to be back along with some guys on D this game.  The Raiders are a net negative .4 yards per play but the Chiefs are only a positive .5 at this point and that is bad but not 13 points bad.  My power ratings have the Chief’s by 10.25 points so this spread is a little to high.

LV Raiders +12.5 – 2 star premium shared and sprinkle

2-2 in Teasers:  Refuse to Lose Teaser – Saints down to -1.5 hosting the Chargers and the Steelers to -1 hosting the Eagles.  

Bow to the Gambling Gods Parlay 8 Legs and pays 6.6 -1

Alabama -2000, TCU -305, Liberty -1050, Notre Dame -1400, Charlotte -145, Florida Atlantic -131, Pittsburgh Steelers -325, Seattle Seahawks -315

Alan Cashman’s Week 6 CFB Projection Models

 

Please follow me on Twitter @TheCashmanwins

Analytic Projection Model C went 16-4-1 last week  in CFB.  Unanimous Model went 2-2 but is 14-5 for the season.

I am providing these for OddsBreakers Members.

Week 6 CFB Game Projection Models

Good Luck,

Alan

@TheCashmanwins