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NFL Week 15 Free plays and Teaser
Tampa Bay vs Atlanta +6 O/U 50.5
Something is wrong with Tampa and I do not love the way that they are playing. Had the Vikings hit some of those 4 missed FGs last week they might have lost the game out-right. Atlanta on the other hand has been playing well for a team dead in the water. They do not like Tampa and will try and spoil their fun. Julio Jones was a big missing piece to this falcons team last week and he should be back for this big game. The Falcon’s have been a pretty good buy team lately at home. Their last 3 home games, they won 2 outright and was in the Saints game until the end. They covered all three of those games. Tampa Bay has not been great as of late losing to the Rams, Chiefs and last week they should have lost that Vikings game being outgained in yards. I think the Vita Vea injury has hurt their run defense some and the Falcons should be able to move the ball being that Tampa is very weak in the air allowing 250 passing yards per game. The Falcons love to play spoiler and they might get the W here at home.
Falcons +6 – 2 star premium shared and sprinkle
Chiefs vs Saints +3 O/U 51.5 –
This is a great game coming up and it should be the highlight of your Sunday. The biggest question in this game is if Drew Brees plays. He has a shot and if he does, this total will go up. I think it is a smart play to grab this over for a few reasons. Both teams play a faster tempo ranking in the top 10 for starters. Number 2, the Chief’s only real weakness is against the run allowing 4.7 yards per carry. The Saints may be the best running team with Kamara and they will get 24+ points. And number 3, I don’t care how good the Saints defense is. Kansas City’s offense is really something else and can’t be stopped. They have never had to really shift it in high gear yet and they may have to in this matchup. Lastly, KC averages 31 points per game which is number 2 behind the Packers and New Orleans averages 28.3 points per game which is number 7. Many of those points was without Michael Thomas. If Brees does comes back, then you will have some good line value here. This game feels like when the Packers came to town and won 37-30.
Over 51.5 – 2 star premium shared play
Refuse to lose teaser is 8-6 this year so far: Tease the Colts to -1 with the Titans to -5. I don’t see how the Lions are going to do well here especially without Matt Stafford. – 2 Star Premium Shared Play
College Football Week 15 Free Plays – Sports Betting
UAB vs Marshall -5.5 O/U 42 –
This game is interesting to me. I really don’t know how Marshall got shut out by Rice but they are in my mind the best Conference USA championship team. The interesting thing about this conference is that the top seed gets to play at home and that is Marshall. The Thundering herd has a couple of defensive backs that could make it in the NFL in Nazeeh Johnson and Stephen Gilmore. Looking at their opponent in UAB, they also struggled against Rice and didn’t cover that game last week. What I have noticed is that UAB didn’t play as well towards the end of their schedule and they gave up some points against Louisiana and LA tech. Marshall hasn’t had an opponent score 20 points all season but their schedule was extremely weak this year with their best game against Appalachian State who out-gained them. Marshal is a +1.9 net yards per play and UAB is a +1.2. Both teams average over 29 points per game. I have Marshall winning this game by 7 points from power ratings but I also know UAB can play pretty tough so I am still waiting on the side. I think this one will go over the low total year and I also lean Marshall.
Over 42 – 3 star premium shared play
Boise State vs San Jose State +7 O/U 55
This game is going to be a good one in my opinion. Boise State is once again a very good team but now that they lost their home field advantage here for the Mountain West Title game, I think it changes some things. First of all, I want to give major props to Brett Brennan and the Job that he did at this school. I remember how bad they were in 2018 and and very happy that they found themselves here. He will be a popular candidate for the Arizona Job among others. This Spartan team also fought through adversity after being kicked out of California for their strict targeted virus policies and fortunately played at Sam Boyd Stadium just last week. The Spartans average +1.84 yards per play and 30 points per game on offense and only giving up 17.5 on defense. Boise State on the other hand has been there done that. They won 2 of the last 3 Mountain West titles and have a perfect conference record with 1 hiccup vs Boise State. One thing that I will say is that although they played BYU, they got beat pretty bad that game and were able to avoid playing Nevada and San Diego State this year who are the next best teams for sure behind these 2. Boise State is only a net positive .7 yards per play. They get their points all kinds of ways but they don’t do anything extra special. I have Boise a 6 point favorite on my power ratings but I am betting San Jose state here and here is why. A) My power ratings tells me they have a shot. B) Their .7 net yards per play over Boise tells me that they can win the game, and C) They just played at Sam Boyd Stadium last week.
San Jose State +7 – 2.5 stars 1 star on the money line
Ole Miss vs LSU +1 O/U 73.5 –
- Last week, It was a shoe-in that LSU was going to upset Florida right?
- LSU has been trending up lately if we don’t look at the Alabama game but they are still -1.8 yards per play.
- Ole Miss’s defense has been quietly getting better and Matt Coral throws at a 73% completion.
- I have this game a pick-em in my power ratings but I think that Lane Kiffen finishes the season well like he did with FAU last year.
- LSU is obviously in a let down spot and they were outgained by a lot last week vs Florida. Even tho it is at Tiger Stadium, I think the Rebels will win this game.
Ole Miss -2 is the play for 3 star premium shared play
NFL Week 15 Sharp Action
As of Wednesday Afternoon:
Sharp money on:
Bills -5 to -6.5 at Broncos – 70% tickets and 84% of the money.
49ers -2.5 to -3 at Cowboys – 70% tickets and 97% of the money.
Chicago Bears +3.5 at the Vikings – 44% tickets and 88% of the money.
Buccaneers -3.5 to -6 at Atlanta – 51% tickets and 98% of the money.
Seahawks -3.5 to -5.5 at Washington – 53% tickets and 86% of the money.
Sharp Totals:
Buccaneers vs Falcons under 51.5 to 50.5 – 33% tickets and 97% of the money.
Texans vs Colts under 52.5 to 50.5 – 32% tickets and 82% of the money.
Patriots vs Dolphins under 44.5 to 41.5 – 63% tickets and 98% of the money.
Eagles vs Cardinals over 47.5 to 49.5 – 59% tickets and 94% of the money.
Steelers vs Bengals under 41.5 to 40 – 72% tickets and 99% of the money.
College Football Championship Week Sharp Action
As of Wednesday Afternoon:
5 Sharpest Sides:
Nebraska -6 to -6.5 at Rutgers – 65% tickets and 99% of the money.
Ole Miss +2 to -2 – 42% tickets and 73% of the money.
San Jose State +9 to +6.5 – 58% tickets and 86% of the money.
ASU -7 to -7.5 at Oregon State – 65% tickets and 99% of the money.
Florida State +9.5 to +6.5 at Wake Forest – 68% tickets and 89% of the money.
5 Sharpest Totals:
Oregon vs USC over 62 to 64 – 91% tickets and 98% of the money. dual action
Louisiana vs Coastal Carolina over 54 to 55.5 – 69% tickets and 98% of the money.
Stanford vs UCLA over 57 to 59 – 63% tickets and 90% of the money.
Alabama vs Florida over 71 to 74.5 – 62% tickets and 82% of the money.
Michigan State vs Maryland over 47.5 to 50.5 – 27% tickets and 52% of the money.
Podcast 77 – 20 – With ESPN’s Chris Fallica and Wager Talk’s Ralph Michaels – College Football Championship Week & NFL Week 15 plays – Sharp Movements – Sports Betting
Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays! We have a wonderful Christmas show part (A) to bring you today with 2 of the heaviest hitters in sports wagering! Chris Fallica @Chrisfallica from #ESPN’s College Gameday and Wagertalk’s Ralph Michaels @CLVsportsLV come on to touch on almost every game on the slate! First, Kiev talks about the Podcast scheduling for the rest of the year and for College Basketball. Next, Chris and Ralph come on and the guys go right into the College football games for the weekend. Which teams are looking to make a statement? Which teams should voer the spread? Which coaches should go where? Next, Kiev gives out a Myrtle Beach bowl play and then talks some NFL football games with some plays for you as usual. Then, Kiev gives out his REFUSE TO LOSE teaser that is 8-6 for the year. Finally, Kiev gets into sharp line movements for the weekend in both College Football and the NFL.
NFL: LA Chargers vs Las Vegas – Kansas City vs New Orleans and more!
NCAA: Boise State vs San Jose State – Alabama vs Florida – Northwestern vs Ohio State and more!
#Sportsbetting #Gamblingtwitter #NCAA #NFL #UFC #Horseracing
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College Football Week 15b Motivational Spots
Let Down Spots:
Army in a let down spot vs Air Force after beating Navy.
LSU in a huge let down spot after beating Florida. This is a big one.
ASU at Oregon State after crushing their rival Arizona.
Florida State in a let down spot after beating Duke pretty bad.
Get up spots:
All teams minus LSU and Army.
Look ahead spots:
None.
College Football Week 15 Misleading Final Scores
Maryland out-gained Rutgers 471 to 354 yet lost 27-24. A 2-0 turnover ratio hurt.
Penn State only out-gained Michigan State 405 to 389 yet won 39-24 – Even turnovers but bad efficiency for Tucker and Sparty.
Western Michigan out-gained Ball State 491 to 352 yet lost 30-27. A 2-0 turnover ratio hurt.
Northern Illinois out-gained Eastern Michigan 420 to 337 yet lost 41-33. Even turnover ratio at 1-1 too. Bad efficiency.
Florida out-gained LSU 609 to 418 yet lost 37-34. A 3-0 turnover ratio knocked them out of the playoffs.
UCLA out-gained USC 549 to 444 yet lost 43-38. A 3-2 turnover ratio hurt.
Oregon State out-gained Stanford 458 to 408 yet lost 27-24. 1-0 turnover ratio hurt.
San Diego State out-gained BYU 399 to 384 yet lost 28-14. A 2-1 turnover ratio and bad efficiency hurt them.
NFL Week 14 Misleading Final Scores and Week 15 Motivational Spots
Misleading Scores:
Cincinnati out-gained Dallas 309 to 272 yet lost 30 to 7. A 3-0 turnover ratio did them in early.
Minnesota out-gained Tampa Bay 335 to 303 yet lost 26-14. 1-0 turnover ratio hurt them and bad efficiency. Missing 4 field goals.
Indianapolis only out-gained Las Vegas 456 to 424 yet won 44 to 27. 3-0 turnover ratio killed the Raiders.
San Francisco out-gained Washington 344 to 193 yet lost 23-15. A 3-1 turnover ratio killed them. They allowed 2 defensive touchdowns.
Motivational Spots:
Let down spots:
Bills could let down at the Broncos after beating Pittsburgh.
The Eagles could let down at the Cardinals after beating the Saints.
Chargers in a little let down spot after beating Atlanta and facing the Raiders.
Get up spots:
Steelers will want to put one on the Bengals.
The Saints will want to beat the Chiefs.
Look ahead spots:
Seahawks could be looking past Washington to the Rams.
Rams looking past the Jets to the Seahawks.
Fantasy Football Week 15
Key Injuries:
Matthew Stafford QB – Ribs injury and week to week.
Austin Hooper TE – Neck injury keeping him out this week and maybe next.
Mike Gesicki TE – Shoulder injury.
Deebo Samuel WR – Hamstring injury.
Devonte Parker WR – Leg injury and week to week. Could be back next week.
Jakeem Grant WR – Leg injury but day to day.
Mike Williams WR – Back injury.
Alex Smith QB – Calf Strain and is day to day.
Waiver Wire:
Jalen Hurts QB – Must own in my opinion.
De’Andre Washington RB – for Gaskin injury.
Tyron Johnson WR – For the Mike Williams injury.
Jakeem Grant WR – If Devonte Parker can’t go.
Mack Hollins WR – Filled in more for Parker.
Adam Shaheen TE – Good streamer if Gesicki can’t make it back.
David Njoku TE – For Hooper injury.
Drew Lock QB – Only owned in 11% of leagues
Mitch Trubisky QB – Also only 11% and has the Vikings and Jags up next.
AJ Green WR – 7 Targets and a TD.
Players Trending Up for Week 15:
Raheem Mostert RB – Facing a weak Cowboys run D.
Nyheim Hines RB – Against Houston’s D.
Gus Edwards & JK Dobbins RBs – vs the horrible Houston Texans D.
Benny Snell RB – vs the Bengals D.
Devin Singletary RB – vs Denver’s 5th worst run D.
Logan Thomas TE – vs Seattle’s pass D.
The whole Rams team including Jared Goff vs the loly Jets.
Rob Gronkowski TE – Late in the year it’s Gronk time and he plays the Falcons.
Jonnu Smith TE – vs Detroit’s Pass D.
Mark Andrews TE – vs Jacksonville’s D.
Evan Engram TE – vs Cleveland’s pass D.
Busts:
Todd Gurley RB vs Tampa’s run D.
The whole Jets team vs the Rams.
J.D. McKissic RB – vs Seattle’s D.
David Johnson or Duke Johnson vs Indianapolis’s D.
Giovani Bernard RB – vs Steelers D.
Tyler Boyd WR – vs the Steelers D.
Russell Wilson QB – vs Washington’s D is scary. They have the Rams on deck.
CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper WRs vs San Francisco’s D.
Nasty Sleeper:
Raheem Mostert RB – He is due and the Cowboys D is horrible vs the run.
