The Public Dog Kiev O’Neil after a 10-5 week comes back strong with more college football picks & sharp analysis. TCU vs Arkansas, Pitt vs Penn State, E Carolina vs West Virginia, Louisville vs North Carolina, Minnesota vs Oregon State, Easter Michigan vs Rutgers, Oklahoma vs Ohio State, Stanford vs USC. Cub Fan Danny comes in to join in conversation about NFL Week 1! Seattle vs Green Bay, Philadelphia vs Washington, Jacksonville vs Houston, Oakland vs Tennessee, Indianapolis vs LA Rams, and Atlanta vs Chicago.
In this episode The Public Dog recaps a great opening weekend of college football betting and action. Kiev then goes into his updated Big 10 Power Ratings and speaks with Dave (D Nasty) on his week 1 fantasy football plays, breakout players and sleepers.
Lessons learned concept on black blackboard with coffee cupt and paper plane
Key takeaways from week 1
Amazing week for the big 10. Huge!!!! Big 10 may be the best conference. SEC had a great week as well. Next week when Clemson faces Auburn and Ohio State faces Oklahoma we will know more about that.
Ohio state and Indiana – JT Barrett is the black Tim Tebow. This team is very similar to the 2007 2008 Florida gators. They pound the ball and wear you down. Just ask Indiana. Indiana was in the game until they couldn’t stop JT Barrett from running for first downs. They roll out and do short passes. They stretch the field only to keep you honest on D and once in a while they will get lucky with a long TD. The way to beat this team is to stack the box with 6 down lineman with corner Blitzes and rotate guys out for air.
Troy and Appalachian St. What did I tell you not to do? I told you VEGAS KNOWS ABOUT THEM, and you backed them anyways. App state lost by 21 and Troy lost by 11. You lost money cause you just couldn’t resist could you? You seriously need to listen when it comes to new sweetheart teams are already factored into the line.
Penn state – Played a poor Akron team but defense looked legit. Only allowed 2 yards per rush. They will get rewarded in the power ratings .5 point
Wisconsin – Horrible start with some mistakes. Dropped passes, tournovers and penalties hurt them but give Utah state credit for coming off strong. The momentum changed with that targeting call. I felt bad for the kid but it is what it is. Game was then Tied at the half at 10. Wisconsin key takeaway is their running back true freshman taylor looked amazing and may get the bulk of the action from here on out. Wisconsin’s defense looked good but not as good as last year with TJ Watt. I need to see a better pass rush. Fumagale or Fumagronke will be a top 2 round guy in the draft. Utah state kept them in the game with that extremely fast offense and paid for it dearly. I mean extremely fast with lots of passing. Look to bet the overs in every Utah state game until you lose!
Maryland vs Texas – What a great start to the year!!! Does this say something more about Maryland or Texas is the question i suppose. I do know that Maryland only threw the ball 15 times and ran for 6 yards per carry. Only allowed 3 yards per carry as well. They will be the largest power rating adjustment for week 1.
Iowa – Looked actually pretty good. Stuffed Josh Allen and held them to 3 points.
Rutgers also looked good. They came out motivated and played hard for their coach Chris Ash. Look for them to cover more spreads.
Purdue – If it wasn’t for that costly pick 6 they would have beaten Louisville. I think this game says more about how bad Louisville is more than how good Purdue is. Purdue has improved and will get slightly rewarded in the power rankings.
Michigan ST took care of business and improved their defense. They could be a distrupter in the Bit 10 east. Too early to tell cause it was Bowling Green that they played.
Nebraska winning only by 7 points vs Arkansas state didn’t impress. They may be a big fade team this year for me against the spread
Northwestern only beating Nevada by 11 was the biggest loser. This game was close up until the end and they will lose some power rating love.
Other losers include USC because the game was tied vs Western Michigan in the 4th quarter. Lots of money will be put on Stanford for that game. Texas for obvious reasons. NC State had the script flipped on them. Baylor losing outright at home to a future FBS school in Liberty was pathetic. Baylor was a sharp darling this year for season win total and Big 12 championship for some reason. I never figured out why
Oregon State – Another horrible missed call when refs decided not to give them a touchdown. The ball didn’t move in the guys arm and they said it did. The guy moved his arm WITH the ball. Coach Gary Anderson is on the Hot seat.
Stanford – Looked poised and ready. Destroyed rice and covered by about twice the spread. Watch out USC and Washington. With Love at RB, Stanford hasn’t lost anybody
USF – Looked inconsistent. Especially in the first half. Lucky they got back into the game. With Charlie strong it felt like I was watching Texas.
My Picks:
Georgia Tech Tennessee Under 56. This will be a sharp play.
Georgia Tech ranked dead last in possessions per game at 60.4!!!! Tennessee ranks 71 which is the lower half
Both teams run the ball more than they pass it. By alot. Tennessee has a new QB to break in Quinten Dormandy. Tennessee replaced a lot of positions while Georgia Tech returns their Stud Secondaries. Both teams are very good against the pass. Georgia tech only allowed 2982 passing yards while the Vols allowed 2999. Both defenses should be better. Tennesseee has a new play caller on offense which should come out a bit shakey the first few games… If Tennessee can stop Georgia Techs triple option than this under should be no trouble at all in my optionion. Under 56
Colorado state +5.5 vs Colorado, Game is played on a neutral field. Short week for Colorado state but they did very well against Oregon state and seem quite fired up. Colorado is amidst a rebuild year and lost their D coordinator to Oregon while colorado state is poised to prove their worth and win the Mountain west. Colorado State returned 8 on defense and their QB Nick Stevens and Top receiver Michael Gallup. Colorado pretty much turns over their whole defense that allowed only 21 points per game. Their QB Montez does have some experience though and should be able to put up some points. I have this game at a pickem.
Cal +11 at North Carolina. Both teams are in a rebuild year but I do like the New coach at cal Defensive minded Justin Wilcox. Cals d can only improve under him as they have up 42 points per game last year. UNC loses their QB Mich Trubiski as well as their RBs and Wrs. Gene Chizik Stepped down at D coordinator so there is some turnover there as well.
Michigan at Florida Michigan -3. Florida has 6 people suspended including their Top WR Callaway. They replace a ton of Defense just like Michigan. Florida has a new QB is Malik Zaire and Michigan still has Wilton Speight. I didn’t like Zaire too much but this game will be a must watch for me. I have Michigan -3.
Miami Ohio Money line +115 at Marshall. Miami Ohio was the better team last year with way more returning starters than Marshall. Miami Ohio was a bowl team last year losing to miss st by only 1 point. During the season they only lost to Western Kentucky by 6… Marshall only won 2 FBS games last year and was outscored by a margin of 9 points in conference USA
Sharp movement Middle Tennessee state to from +6 to +3.5 vs Vanderbilt
Sharp movement on Utah State from -31 to -27 vs Wisconsin
Sharp movement on Rutgers from -31 to -27 vs Washington
Sharp movement on Oklahoma state from -15 to -18 vs Tulsa
Sharp movement on Boston College from +2 to -3.5 vs Northern Illinois
Fantasy Football Rankings, Sleepers and players to fade for your draft. Conor McGregor vs Floyd Mayweather betting odds and props. Apologize for some of the audio. Had to switch some equipment and recorded a buzzing sound. It is fixed for next time.
The Public Dog Kiev O’Neil breaks down the Top 25 NCAA football teams. We also talk about some sleepers and some teams to watch out for. We also talk about handicapping 2 opening weekend games on August 26th. Oregon State vs Colorado St and South Florida vs Jan Jose State!
The odds breakers bring you NFL Season Futures, MVP, Offensive Rookie of the year, Superbowl and Divisional Favorites. Please visit us at www.theoddsbreakers.com our facebook group or tweet @theoddsbreakers to contribute!
For our 4th Podcasts Cub Fan Danny and The Public Dog cover UFC 214 and NCAA Heisman Odds. Danny talks about Weigh-ins and how detrimental they are to UFC betting as well as these fighters and their history. Heisman odds are covered by the Public dog on who has the best chances with respect to the best prices
