We have a great show for you today! NFL is the big daddy for sports betting and we find some season win total plays for the NFC North and the NFC South! There also might be a future bet snuck in somewhere.
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Francis Ngannou-280 vs Jairzinho Rozenstruick +240 –
Looking at this fight, I like the value on Rozenstruick more than Ngannou. They are both big boys with great records who have absolutely no ground game. Even though there is value in the +240, I think that that there is a safer way of approaching this. If Ngannou wins I think that it will be before 1.5 rounds like his last 3 fights. If the fight goes past this then I think Jairzihno wins because Francis seems to run out of gas. In saying that, I don’t think that either of them get past the final round so I am going to take
Rozenstruick to win inside the distance at (+400) for 1 star and under 1.5 rounds at (-120) for 1 star. This way you can win both and/or be protected if Ngannou wins early.
Jeremy Stephens +195 vs Calvin Kattar -240
Cub Fan Danny talked about this one on the podcast. Kattar is the younger and more aggressive fighter here but laying -240 is a lot for a fight against an experienced opponent like Stephens. We think that there is a good chance Katter finishes Stephens inside the distance at a price of +230 and there is a smaller chance he wins in a decision at +140. Being said that, we are comfortable only profiting 40 cents on the dollar if it does go decision and taking a shot at the 1.3X with 2 plays rather than just laying the -240.
Kattar wins inside the distance at (+230) – 1 star and Kattar wins by decision (+140 )for 1 star
Greg Hardy -205 vs Yorgan De Castro +175
Another big fight with the heavy weight heavy hitters. Greg Hardy was a football player and now has had a great start in the UFC. He is 5-2-1 and is not afraid to face anyone. Yorgan De Castro has had a great start himself going 6-0 so far. This is another one of those fights that you would think can go either way but Hardy has the size and reach advantage this the -205. I think that I like the + money on Yorgan being that he has one advantage to Hardy and that is a semblance of a ground game. I don’t mind taking a small shot here once again at the + money
We have a great show for you today! Cub Fan Danny @CubFanDanny is back to break down a YUUUUGE weekend of MMA fighting with #UFC249! Before we get into that, Kiev starts out talking about a great weekend in horse racing. Next, Kiev discusses an article from Kevin Seifert from ESPN discussing the NFL’s officiating crisis. Next, Kiev talks about all NFL teams and their 2019 pythagorean win totals compared to their actual win totals. Which teams should have won more games and which teams should have won less? Finally, Cub Fan Danny comes in to break down UFC 249 and gives us some plays for this weekend!
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As we all know, the Kentucky Derby has been postponed until September 5th due to unmitigated circumstances. When that happened, it created an opportunity for smaller tracks like Oaklawn Park to postpone their derby and jump in to grab that May 2nd date for a larger exposure. Not only did this create a large clamor for this track, it also created a huge attraction to trainers and owners to run their horse in this Arkansas derby to try and get some qualifying points for the Kentucky Derby. The field here has become very competitive and the sports betting handle will be very large. The Demand for this race was so large that the race was split into 2 phases in Race 11 and Race 13 both with qualifying points awarded to the top 4 finishers of each race to put their hat into the Kentucky Derby later this year. I want to remind everyone that I do not give out horse racing picks professionally but I do know more than the average Joe and here are some of my plays.
Race 11: If you listened to the podcast, you would know that Charlatan has a very easy field here and even more now since Shooters Shoot was a late scratch. This horse should win this race and here are some plays but no value for WPS on him:
OP11 – Total $48
May 02, 2020 12:28 PM
Racebook
$24.00
Oaklawn Park – Race
11 $ 2 Trifecta (1 / 4, 8, 9 / 4, 8, 9, 10, 11)
May 02, 2020 12:25 PM
Racebook
$8.00
Oaklawn Park – Race
11 $ 2 Exacta (4, 8, 9, 11 / 1)
May 02, 2020 12:24 PM
Racebook
$16.00
Oaklawn Park – Race
11 $ 4 Exacta (1 / 4, 8, 9, 11)
Race 13: This race I think is more wide open and a better chance to win some money. I like King Guermo a lot here and he has had some great practice runs since his huge showing in Tampa.
The OddsBreakers With ESPN's Chris Fallica and Wagertalk's Marco D'Angelo
We have a jam-packed show for you today! The Arkansas derby is upon us and there are no better handicappers to have on than two of the heaviest hitters in horse racing. Marco D’Angelo @MarcoInVegas from Wagertalk.com and Chris Fallica @Chrisfallica from ESPN.com @espn come on our show to break down the main two phases of the Arkansas Derby in this tremendous card! First, we get into a little NFL draft chat with Marco. Next, Kiev and Chris talk some college football rankings and give out some futures/totals plays. Then, the guys talk about some scenarios where college football can come back and have at least some sort of a season. Next, we talk about some of the big Baffert favorites in these races and get into some horses that could give at least one of them some trouble. Finally, Chris and Marco get into some sleepers in these races that could easily hit the board! Check out Marco’s plays this weekend at Wagertalk.com and check out Chris’s articles on ESPN.com!
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We have a great show for you today! We have Doug Upstone @dougupstone from Docssports.com to recap the 2020 NFL Draft! How did the draft go for us? Which teams did the best? Which teams did the Worst? We talk about our top 5 and bottom 5 teams of the draft. At the end of the show, we discuss a little bit about horse racing and how to make it easy to start playing the ponies!
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(A) Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow QB- The only way to go.
(A-) Washington’s Chase Young Edge – He has made the best Offensive tackles look like underclassman.
(C+) Detroit’s Jeffrey Okudah CB – If Detroit played their cards right, they could have traded with Miami and still picked Okudah.
(B) New York Giant’s Andrew Thomas OT – Good to fill the need but Gettleman’s open for business statement looked pretty closed and I didn’t have Thomas as the best O-lineman in the draft.
(A) Miami’s Tua Tagovailola QB – The Dolphin’s didn’t have to even move up for him.
(B+) LA Charger’s Justin Herbert QB – He has the size but he was inconsistent throughout his senior season.
(B) Carolina’s Derrick Brown DT – Carolina could have traded down to get more and they have many many needs.
(B) Arizona’s Isaiah Simmons LB/FS- The Cardinals really needed O-Line help and could have traded down, but I had Simmons as the best LB/FS in the draft.
(D+) Jacksonville’s CJ Henderson CB – There were better CBs out there and no value at number 9
(A) Cleveland’s Jedrick Wills OT – He was my number 1 Offensive Tackle in the draft.
(A-) NY Jets Mekhi Becton OT – A little over-hyped but still a beast.
(D-) Las Vegas’s Henry Ruggs WR – Ruggs wasn’t even the 3rd most contributing WR on Alabama last year and he thrives as a number 2 go to guy.
(D+) Tampa Bay’s Tristin Wirfs OT – Tampa’s glarying need is in the secondary and especialy when they ranked 7th in sacks per game and 30th in opponent receiving yards.
(B+) San Fancisco’s Javon Kinlaw DT – way to not over-draft a WR here!
(B) Denver’s Jerry Jeudy WR – Well, they do need a WR but he wasn’t my second best
(B+) Atlanta’s AJ Terrell CB – They needed him but they also need a ton more help on Defense.
(B-) Dallas’s Ceedee Lamb WR – I like Lamb a lot actually but I think that WR is very deep this year and Dallas needed secondary help.
(A) Miami’s Austin Jackson OT – This team keeps getting top guys that they need!
(C+) Las Vegas’s Damon Arnette CB – I had higher corner-backs here but Ohio State guys usually pan out.
(B) Jacksonville’s K’Lavon Chaisson OT – Good value here but they really need offensive line help.
(D-) Philadelphia’s Jalin Reager WR – Wow, this looked like a panic move after Dallas picked Lamb
(B-) Minnesota’s Justin Jefferson WR – Was it him that was amazing or was it Burrow and that great offense?
(B-) LA Charger’s Kenneth Murray LB – Good play going for an LB but I am not sure he is my 2nd best LB in the draft.
(A-) New Orlean’s Ceazar Ruiz C/G – Top Center in the draft but the position was rather weak in this year’s class.
(C-) San Francisco’s Brandon Aiyuk WR – They need a WR but he was a 3rd rounder for me.
(F+) Green Bay’s Jordan Love QB – This trade-up was not only a reach for a project type player, but it also sends a strange message to the team.
(B+) Seattle’s Jordyn Brooks LB – I have heard very good things about this kid and I had him above Kenneth Murray
(B-) Baltimore’s Patrick Queen LB – Good but not great
(B+) Tennessee’s Isaiah Wilson OT – Was Mike Vrable serious?
(C+) Miami’s Noah Igbinoghene CB – They needed a playmaking RB more in this position in my opinion
(C-) Minnesota’s Jeff Gladney CB – Edge Rusher like Gross Matos would have been a premium play
(D-) Kansas City’s Clyde Edward’s Helaire RB – I think most of the running backs in this draft would have been at least as successful in the 2019 LSU offense.
We have a great show for you today! The 2020 NFL Draft is here and we have thought long and hard on which plays make the most sense. First, Kiev ranks his quarterback and skill position prospects. Next, we recap all of our free plays and some premium plays for the #NFLdraft. Then, Kiev get’s into some prop bets and new plays that will hopefully bring some value for this big event! Please tweet us @theoddsbreakers if you have some plays on NFL draft day!
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Houston Texans first pick defensive player (-145) – 2 star premium shared play – Now that they have Cooks they will try and improve their bad pass rush after Clowney left. JJ Watt is getting old and can’t seem to stay healthy. The mock drafts have the Texans drafting AJ Espenesa at their first pick which will happen on Friday at pick 40 barring any trade downs.
Tampa Bay first pick defensive player (+250) – .5 star premium shared play – Everyone says they will pick a Offensive Tackle and maybe they are right but I do not agree with that play. This is a shot but I don’t see why they wouldn’t want to fix the 3rd worst secondary in the NFL. You know that you have a terrible secondary when your defense ranked 7th in sacks per game and you still gave up the 3rd most passing yards in a season. Tampa has everything else on offense for the most part and their Offensive Line ranks 7th on pro football focus. Tampa also signed Right Tackle Joe Haeg from Indianapolis to replace Dotson. If Tampa doesn’t trade down and go secondary first, then they would really be missing the boat.
We have a great show for you today! It is NFL draft week and that is something that we can all get excited about! Kiev first talks about the Corona Virus and why he is optimistic that we will have a baseball and football season. Next, Kiev discusses why returning coaches and quarterbacks may be more important this year than any year prior. Then, we get into the NFL Draft with some more analysis and plays. Please tweet us @theoddsbreakers if you have any of your own plays that you would like to share!
For only 17.99 a month become an ODDSBREAKER’S MEMBER and gain access to all premium picks BEFORE the line moves please visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop!
