In College football a case can be made, even this early in the game, to have a pretty accurate power rating on the 130 teams in the NCAA.   We have a lot of information available at our disposal to make the necessary adjustments from last year’s performance indicators.   Some of that information includes, but is not limited to returning production, returning starters, offensive and defensive schemes, the last 3 years of performance history, prior recruiting classes, and coaching changes.   Here is the top 12 teams along with my current power ratings.  Each point factor represents where each team stands above the average team rounded to .25.    The average team has a point factor of 0, so for example, Ohio State is 31.5 points better than the average team according to my ratings.  Please also remember that power ratings change throughout the year and especially after the first few games that are played.   My information on returning production is from Bill Connelly of ESPN, (formerly from SB Nation) and recruiting rankings are from 247 Sports.

1.  Ohio State – 31.5 – Ohio State lost a lot of production ranking 92nd coming into 2020 but recruiting has always been a monster.  The Buckeye’s rank second best in the 2017 and the 2018 recruiting classes which always shows year over year why Ohio State reloads among the best of them.   Quarterback Justin Fields is entering his second season as a starter and also as a Heisman leader.  The loss of Chase young may hurt a little, but it is not hard to have confidence with guys like Tyreke Smith and K’Vaughn Pope coming back.  Losing KJ Hill and Binjimen Victor sounds bad, but Garrett Wilson and Chris Olive should should slide right in.  Don’t forget 5 star Jaelin Gill who is poised for a breakout season.  It is going to be interesting seeing Master Teague rushing the ball this year behind a huge offensive line.  I think he can mitigate the loss of JK Dobbins.  This team is the closest thing to Alabama year over year and will not lose a step coming into this season.  I downgraded the Buckeyes only 2 points from last year and I think that is fair looking at this team’s three year history, especially with consistency at coach and quarterback.  Respected companies like Team Rankings had Ohio State finishing at 39 points and ESPN’s FPI had them at 33.7 better than the average team last year, so I am comfortable putting them at number 1 at 31.5.   Returning production: O65% D47%.   Recruiting: ’17 – 2nd ’18 – 2nd ’19 -14th.
2. Alabama – 26 – Losing Tua Tagovailoa, Henry Ruggs, and Jerry Jeudy hurt this team a little, but with the number 1 recruiting class from 2017, and 3 Very good QBS in Mac Jones, Taulia Tagovailoa, and Bryce young competing, I am not too worried about the Tide this year either. For Nick Saben, it must be nice to see Devanta smith and Najee Harris returning as they were key pieces in Alabama’s success in 2019.   The offense shouldn’t skip a beat as we have seen without Tua vs Michigan and Auburn at the end of last year so I am confident that this team will put up some points.   Lots of injured defense will be back to avenge last years non-Bama like performance.  Returning production:  O55% D60%.  Recruiting: ’17 – 1st ’18 – 5th ’19 – 1st.
3. Clemson – 25 – The loss of production was similar to Ohio State’s but having good recruiting classes ranking 16th in 2017 and top 12 afterwords helps.  Tee Higgens and  Isaiah Simmons going to the draft will be tough, but Travis Etienne staying is huge for the Tigers.  Clemson also loses 3 stud O-Line coming into 2020, so there is a question mark for me there.  The fact that they Tigers retain Trevor Lawrence is a very good thing and I expect him to play pissed off this year.  Coach Dabo Sweeny keeps inching closer and closer to Nick Saben status.  This year looks very promising.   Returning Production:  O60% D51%.  Recruiting: ’17 – 16th ’18 – 7th ’19 – 10th.
4. Auburn – 21 – Auburn is the most intriguing team to me.  The Return of Bo Nix at quarterback should be huge.  Top 11 recruiting classes the last 3 years is very consistent.  They lose some trenches to the draft, but the Tigers return a decent amount of productions with 60% on both sides of the ball.  I really like the fact that Auburn brings back most of their skill position players with Seth Williams and Matthew Hill at Wide Receiver.  This is the kind of consistency that can only help Bo Nix move to the next level.  Returning Production:  O61% D60%. Recruiting:  ’17 – 9th ’18 12th  ’19 – 11th.
5. Georgia – 20 – Another team losing a QB is Georgia with Jake Fromm going to the NFL. Georgia has had great top 5 recruiting and is also returning 80% production from a great defense.  I’m not worried about losing Deandre swift.  It looks like Jaime Newman a transfer from Wake Forest will fill in at QB but I personally do not that the fast style of offense that he played at Wake is a fit. Todd Monkin from Southern Miss is the new offensive coordinator but he ranked number 82 in pace of play when Wake forest was number 1.   Returning Production:  O50% D80%. Recruiting:  ’17 – 3rd  ’18 – 1st  ’19 – 2nd.
6. Florida – 18.5 – This is a dangerous team with a great schedule that could set themselves up for an SEC Championship run.  Fantastic top 10 recruiting twice over the past 3 years and decent returning production. The Gators do lose some skill positions like Van Jefferson and Josh Hammond but guys like Jacob Copeland and Justin Watkins should step right in. Returning their whole O-Line is huge. This team will go as far as Kyle Trask takes them.   Returning Production:  O63% D67%. Recruiting: ’17 – 11th ’18 – 14th ’19 – 9th.
7. Wisconsin – 18 – Losing Jonathan Taylor hurts, but the truth is that Wisconsin is a running back system.  Success for any running back at this school is eminent.  Taylor’s fumbles were a bit of an annoyance last year fumbling a total of 18 times, with 15 of those recovered by the opposing teams.   There has to be improvement from a turnover perspective for 2020.  The Badger’s quarterback play will be better due to the return of Jack Coan, and second year 4 star recruit Graham Mertz pushing to be a starter.  Either one of these guys could potentially take the helm and be successful in this offense.  Losing Zach Baun and Chris Orr on defense could hurt a bit but the Badgers have some very good Linebackers to replace them with like Izayah Green May and Leo Chenal.  Wisconsin lost a bit of production from the Wide Receiving core with Quintez Cephus and AJ Taylor gone.  Also losing speedy Aron Cruikshank with his transfer to Rutgers isn’t good but Wisconsin does have some experience there with Danny Davis and Kendrick Pryor.  The Badgers do need some other guys to step up at the skill positions this year in order to break into the top 5.   The fact that the Badgers are returning 4 out of 5 Offensive Lineman and Jake Ferguson at tight end is HUGE.  This could be the best Offensive line in all of football for 2020.  Sconnie also has a great secondary that is returning for 2020 who should help relieve some pressure on the pass rush.  Wisconsin recruiting has never been great in the Badger state, and this is nothing new, but it has always been about the system that makes them successful and recruiting has been trending up lately.   Expect great things from Wisconsin!  Returning Production: O62% D81%. Recruiting: ’17 – 39th ’18 – 46th ’19 – 29th.
8. Penn State – 17.75 – Losing Gross Matos at pass rush and KJ Hamler in the slot will be tough to replace, BUT this team recruited very well and they retain guys like QB Sean Clifford and Edge Linebacker Micah Parsons. Guys like Daniel George and Jahan Dotson will step in and replace the loss of Hamler.   Sean Clifford has shown a ton of versatility.  He just needs to be a little bit more consistent and get better on his check-downs.  I expect Journey Brown to have a huge year at RB.  This team returns a lot compared to other top Big 10 teams and with their recruiting, they will be the biggest threat to Ohio State in the East.  Returning Production:  O74% D63%  Recruiting: ’17 – 15th ’18 – 6th ’19 – 12th.
9. Oklahoma – 17.5 –  Lots of question marks as usual for this team but has that mattered the last 3 or 4 years?   it looks like another new QB for this team.  Losing Jalen Hurts and CeeDee Lamb will leave some a mark but they do bring back a lot of O-Line. Spencer Rattler looks to be the starting QB for the Sooners this year.  He is a touted 5-star recruit out of Phoenix Pinnacle High, is expected to do big things in Lincoln Riley’s offense next season after playing sparingly behind Jalen Hurts last season.  The defense should improve here returning 70% production and I do trust Lincoln Riley. Top 8 recruiting classes the last 3 years is par for the course for Oklahoma.  Returning Production: O49% D70%. Recruiting: ’17 – 8th ’18 – 9th ’19 – 6th.
10. LSU – 17 – Could this be a hangover year for the Tigers?   They lost a ton including the best QB in college and Offensive Coordinator.  They rank 127th out of 130 teams in this department.  Recruting is always good at this school and Ed Orgeron has proven to be an amazing leader to this team.   Losing Joe Brady really can’t be quantified.  He is the man who brought in the RPO game to compliment Joe Burrows strengths and maybe the real reason behind the greatest offensive performance in college football. Brady has now made his transition to the NFL.  This team was power rated at 34.5 last year which was my top team.  I had to take away 10 points for burrow, 6 for Joe Brady and 5.5 for the rest of the team on the power ratings.   I added back in 4 for recruiting but it will be a huge wait and see on this team for betting purposes.   Maybe a fade early and a buy on later?  Right now we don’t even know the starting QB and I think it is between Myles Brennan and Freshman Peter Parish.   Returning Production:  O30% D54%.  Recruiting: ’17 – 7th ’18 – 15th ’19 – 5th.
11. Notre Dame – 16 – Notre Dame lost a lot on defense but they still retain some good talent on offense minus WR Chase Claypool. The Irish always recruits well.  Ian Book is returning for his senior year and that is a good thing due to so many top tier QBs entering the draft.  Notre Dame will have a new secondary for the most part and 2 new linebackers.   I do like the Irish’s upside this year but their schedule is pretty hard playing Wisconsin in Lambeau Field, Clemson and of course USC.  If they somehow get through that gauntlet unscathed, then expect them to reach the playoffs.  Returning Production:  O66% D51%.  Recruiting: ’17 – 10th ’18 – 10th ’19 – 16th.
12. Texas – 15.5 – Make or break!  This has to be the year that Texas overtakes Oklahoma. With 2 new offensive and Defensive coordinators coming in, you can see that Tom Herman isn’t messing Around. Chris Ash was very successful on defense before becoming the head coach of Rutgers.  He helped the Badgers to two Rose bowls from 2010-2012 and he was a big part of Ohio State’s 2014 title.   Mike Yurcich was a Quarterback coach and passing coordinator at Ohio State last year as well as offensive coordinator at Oklahoma State 5 years before that showing some great experience calling plays.  Sam Ellinger returns at the helm for Texas along with most of the offensive line and running backs. The Longhorns do lose a few at wide receiver like Devin Duvernay and Collin Johnson, but guys like Brennen Eagles and Al’Vonte Woodard will step right in. Returning 82% of their defense should be huge this year if they can take a step forward.  Texas needs to get past LSU their second game this season and will have a lot to prove vs Oklahoma.  Returning Production: O66% D82%.  Recruting ’17 – 25th ’18 – 3rd ’19 – 3rd.

References:

247 Sports: https://247sports.com/season/2017-football/compositeteamrankings/

Bill Connelly of ESPN  https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/28649423/college-football-teams-most-returning-production-2020