Purdue vs Ohio State -2 O/U 128.5

Purdue is 13-16-2 ATS and Ohio State is 19-12 ATS

Ohio State beat this team 68-52 at home this year

• Purdue is the worst shooting team in the big 10 ranking last in effective FG% luckily they are the best offensive rebounding team
• Purdue might be the most desperate team in the Big 10
• This team will go as far as Travion Williams will take them and if they had decent guard play, they might be a top 3 big 10 team.
• Jahaad Proctor and Eric Hunter need to step up here if they want to make the tournament.
• Ohio State is the more complete team but they have some injury woes with Kyle Young out and DJ Carton suspended for academics
• Ohio State is a little overrated in my opinion and their defense only ranks 10th in efficiency in the big 10.
• Neither team is good on the road with Ohio State shooting 40% and Purdue at 37%
• Purdue is the more desperate team trying to make the big dace
• I have this game a pick-em at 62-62.

Under 128.5 – 1 star premium shared

Michigan vs Rutgers +2.5 O/U 135

• Michigan handled this team twice already and neither time was at home.  One was even at Madison square garden.  Isaiah Livers didn’t play either time.
• Michigan finished the season poorly losing 3 of their last 4 games and Rutgers won their last 2 games against Maryland and at Purdue.
• Since February 1st Rutgers only ranks 47th in efficiency on Bart Torvik and Michigan ranks 9th.
• The Wolverine’s shoot a very good 45% on the road and Rutgers a very Modest 42%
• Both of these teams allow an average of 70 points per game on the road
• Rutgers home road splits this year were pretty brutal in the big 10 and until their last game with Purdue, they could not beat anyone on the road not named Nebraska.
• Being that Rutgers hasn’t made the NCAA tournament since 1991, and now that they are in, I have to think that Michigan wants this more.
• I have Michigan winning this game 72-66

Michigan -2.5 2 star premium shared and Lean over 135

Saturday:

Seton Hall vs Creighton -3.5 O/U 149

• Seton hall coming off of a tough loss against Nova
• Creighton has been living off of that great 3 point shot and amazing coaching
• This team runs runs runs and creates offense.  They now rank 5th in offensive efficiency.
• Creighton’s defense is also a big underrated and they are the 3rd best team on Bart Torvik since February 1st.  but I also think that they caught a lot of teams by surprise
• Where Seton Hall can win this game is rebounding and blocked shots.  Creighton is a bad rebounding team and if they get cold, they will not get as many second chance opportunities.  Seton hall is top 11 in blocks this year.
• I think Myles Powell will eventually take over this game

Seton Hall +3.5 – 2 star premium shared and sprinkle

Louisville vs Virginia +1 O/U 113

• This game should be a pickem in my opinion.  Virginia can be Seeded over both Louisville and Duke with this win in the ACC tournament
• For some reason Chris Mack likes to really turn up the pace when he plays Virginia.   He tries to get them out of their slow element.
• The over is 7-1 their last 8 games

Over 114 – 2 star premium shared play

UCLA vs USC -6 O/U 134

Both of these teams have really been buy-on teams over the last few weeks here.  USC has won 4 out of 6 and UCLA has won their last 7 games which most likely has put them into the NCAA tournament at 19-11.  The Bruins during that stretch has beaten Arizona twice an, Colorado and ASU.  Tyger Campbell and Chris smith has really come together and I scratch my head wondering why it took so long.   According to Bart Torvik, since February 1st, UCLA is the second best team in the Pac 12 and USC is 5th.  Since then the Bruins ranks 112.5 in adjusted offensive efficiency while USC ranks 103.9  The Trojans do have a great defense ranking number 2 conference play but UCLA hasn’t allowed over 72 point in regulation since February 6th and USC doesn’t have a high powered offense only ranking 132 on Kenpom.  The under is 21-9 with this Trojan team even though their pace is above average so I have to lean to the under, but I do think that the Bruins are much hotter right now and should win this game outright.

UCLA +4 – 2.5 star premium play and sprinkle 

North Carolina vs Duke -11.5 O/U 151

• Brandon Robinson and Cole Anthony have been out for stretches this year kinda opposite of each other and that really takes a lot of the blame for their poor performance this year.
• UNC is 4-1 ATS the last 5 games and Robinson has only been back fro 5 games
• Duke will want to of course win this game but they won’t be able to get a share of the ACC title due to Florida State getting Boston College at home.
• UNC lost their last game in overtime due to that crazy free throw miss by Tre Jones.
• UNC will be up for this game due to the rivalry.
• This game is always a close one and I have to take the dog.

UNC +11.5 – 2.5 star premium and sprinkle

Sunday:

Ohio State vs Michigan State -4.5 O/U 138

Have to wait until after tonight but here is what i think so far:

March is Tom Izzo and Tom Izzo is March.  His team knows that as well.  Tom will be so red in the face that he might even start to float.  Speaking of red, Spartans have been red hot lately blowing through a very tough big 10 finish putting away top teams such as Maryland, Penn State and Iowa.   Michigan State had a bad streak in early February but now roll players such as Aaron Henry and Rocket Watts have been really picking up the slack and playing high quality basketball.  All Sparty needs to do is win for a share of the big 10 regular season title.   If Michigan State charges to the rim, they can beat anybody, if they sit back and try and take little fade away shots they are venerable but I think they learned that and we all saw them take it hard in the paint the last few games.   Ohio State certainly has some nice wins this year, especially looking at how they beat non-conference foes such as Villanova, and Kentucky but looking at their home road splits, they shoot 48.7% at home and only 40% on the road.   They rely on the three ball a little too much and Michigan State ranks 7th in the nation against the 3.   I think Sparty wins my margin here and will lay the points

Michigan State -4.5 – 3 star premium play