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NFL Week 3 Free Plays – Sports Betting
LA Rams vs Buffalo -2.5 O/U 47
Ok, this Bills team is 1-1 ATS but is better than people think. Josh Allen ranks 4th in QBR and the Bills are taking better chances down field. They have some wonderful receivers there and did not catch the injury bug last week. The Rams really can’t say the same when they lost their rookie running back Cam Akers last week to a rib injury and Malcomb brown hurt his finger. Not good for a runningback for holding the ball because he will be taped up after minor surgery. The Rams also lost starting guard Joe Notebloom. A position of weakness for them. He might play but will be banged up and because of this, I see the Bills D getting to Jared Goff quickly unlike what the Cowboys and Eagles could do. I also think that the Covid restriction of the Rams being able to stay on the east coast affects this game as a bad travel spot. It threw off their plans per say and even if they expected this, they still have to travel. Gonna take the Bills -2 here to give the Rams their first L.
Buffalo -2.5 – 2 star premium shared
Houston vs Pittsburgh -4.5 O/U 45
Houston is starting out 0-2 and 0-2 ATS. How bad is this team is the question that needs to be asked? Lets look at the facts. They were a playoff team last year. That’s good. They have a stud QB. That’s good. They traded their other best player away for garbage. That’s bad. They have one of the worst coaches in NFL football. That is also bad. Here is the kicker. Who did they play their first 2 weeks of football? THE 2 BEST TEAMS IN THE NATION! The Texans are a desparate team right now but we have to at least put things in the perspective of whom they faced. They actually are middle of the road in yards per play ranking 16th at 5.6 and opponent yards per play ranking 19th at 5.9. I actually would argue that that’s not that bad considering their opponents. The Steelers on the other hand played a bad Giants team and a very injured and quarterbackless Broncos team and only average 5.7 yards per play on offense but a great 4.5 on defense. I want to see what the Steeler’s defense can do against a Deshawn Watson led offense myself. One thing that does stick out to me is that the Steelers aren’t the greatest favorite as of late. Since November 18, 2018 they are 2-10 as a favorite. The Steelers beat the Broncos by 5, but I don’t think that they beat the Texans by that much. I’ll take the desperate team with JJ Watt and DeShawn Watson.
Houston +4.5 – 1.5 star premium shared play
Refuse To Lose Teaser – Indianapolis to -5 and NY Giants to +10 – 2 star premium shared – Indi is passing 3 key numbers of 10, 7 and 6. NY Giants are at home and the 49ers are starting Mullens. Low total of 41 is teaser material.
Bow to the Gambling Gods Parlay – NFL Colts -529, Browns-328, NCAA Miami -369, Baylor -1050, Liberty -241, Virgia Tech -240 – This ML Parlay pays 3.25 – 1
College Football Week 4 Free Plays
Kentucky vs Auburn -7.5 O/U 48.5 –
Now this game is one that I have had circled for a while now. Auburn is the most intriguing team SEC team to me and I have them second best for now. They boost top 11 recruiting classes the last 3 years is very consistent. They lose some trenches to the draft but they return a decent amount of productions with 60% on both sides of the ball. I like how they return most of their skill positions with Seth Williams and Matthew Hill at WR. I love how they return Bo Nix at QB as well. Auburn hired Chad Morris as offensive coordinator who really didn’t get much of a shot at a Bielema decimated Arkansas team having only 2 years there before he got canned. My power ratings on them are 21 points better than the Average team. Kentucky on the other hand had so many quarterback injuries last year that WR Lynn Bowden had to start. Terry Wilson is the leader coming back with a 65% completion percentage. He is not as highly regarded as Bo Nix from Auburn tho. Kentucky had a nice returning production ranking 25th in the nation at 73% and a positive 1 net yard per play but their schedule was easy last year ranking 61st in the nation to Auburns ranking 2nd in difficulty. Kentucky has been recruiting in the 30s and are way past what they used to be as a team but they still have a very far way to go in order to compete with Auburn. I have Auburn by 15.25 points here and it is an easy decision for me. We gave this out at 7 but like it all the way to 10 at this price.
Auburn -7.5 – 2.5 star premium play
Florida State vs Miami -11 O/U 54
- Mike Norvell has Covid 19 and I am not sure his assistants can do the same job preparing Florida State for a powerful Miami offense. Crazy enough, Norvell is still coaching with his computer screens and many cameras at different angles on the practice field. Not creepy at all.
- Florida State had 2 weeks to prepare for this game but is that even enough with all of their problems that they have shown the last few years.
- My power number is -13 on Miami but when I adjust for tempo, it passes the 14. They play fast, they have a good defense, they are playing at home the small crowd advantage will be there as well as the turnover chain.
- The speed of Miami’s offense will be able to get margin like Central Florida does to all of their opponents. Miami averages 7.1 yards per play right now and it might stay there if not go up during their ACC schedule.
Miami -11.5 – 2 star premium shared play
Louisville vs Pittsburgh -3 O/U 55.5 – Louisville doesn’t play all that fast. Last year only 70 plays per game. They had lots of turnovers last week so I see them being mroe careful with the ball. Pitts got a solid D and scoring only 21 vs Syracuse isn’t a good look for the offense. Pittsburgh is a team that will try and control the possessions of the football by running the ball. They ranked 19th last year in rushing plays per game. I think the under has value here.
Louisville vs Pittsburgh under 55.5 – 1.5 star premium play
NFL Week 3 Sharp Money
As of Wednesday afternoon
Sharp Money On:
Jaguars PK to -3 hosting the Dolphins – 68% tickets and 89% of the money.
Titans PK to -2.5 at the Vikings – 78% tickets and 99% of the money. Dual Action
Bears +3.5 at the Falcons – 30% tickets and 53% of the money.
Giants +6.5 to +4 hosting the 49ers – 37% tickets and 91% of the money. WOW
Patriots -5.5 hosting the Raiders – 51% tickets and 74% of the money.
Eagles -5.5 hosting the Bengals – 46% of the tickets and 97% of the money. Back Door Burrow.
Bills -2 hosting the Rams – 36% tickets and 79% of the money.
Panthers +6.5 at the Chargers – 40% tickets and 78% of the money.
Cowboys +5.5 to +4.5 at the Seahawks – 27% tickets and 90% of the money.
Broncos +6.5 hosting the Bucs – 15% tickets and 38% of the money.
Saints -3 hosting the Packers – 24% tickets and 92% of the money.
Ravens -2.5 to -3.5 hosting the Chiefs – 40% tickets and 88% of the money.
Sharp Totals:
Dolphins vs Jaguars over 44 to 48 – Dual Action 76% and 98%
Bears vs Falcons under 47.5 – 40% tickets and 99% of the money.
49ers vs the Giants over 40.5 to 42 – 48% tickets and 99% of the money.
Raiders vs the Patriots under 48 – 28% tickets and 99% of the money.
Cowboys vs the Seahawks over 55.5 – 74% of the tickets and 95% of the money.
Bucs vs Broncos under 44.5 to 43.5 – 47% tickets and 99% of the money
College Football Week 4 Sharp Money
As of Wednesday Afternoon
Sharp Money On:
UAB at -4.5 to -6.5 at South Alabama – 66% tickets and 95% of the money.
Pittsburgh at -2.5 hosting Louisville – 40% tickets and 74% of the money.
Oklahoma -27.5 hosting Kansas State – 61% tickets and 98% of the money.
Syracuse +7.5 hosting Georgia Tech – 55% tickets and 95% of the money.
Ole Miss +14.5 hosting Florida – 64% tickets and 99% of the money.
Iowa State -2.5 at TCU – 59% tickets and 93% of the money.
LSU -16.5 hosting Mississippi State – 54% tickets and 74% of the money.
Louisiana Monroe -8 to -9.5 hosting UTEP – 73% tickets and 99% of the money.
Arkansas +26.5 hosting Georgia – 36% tickets and 98% of the money.
FAU -3 hosting South Florida – 43% tickets and 74% of the money.
Missouri +28 hosting Alabama – 5% tickets and 32% of the money.
Florida State +11.5 at Miami – 41% tickets and 97% of the money. I disagree
NC State +9 to +7 at Virginia Tech – 53% tickets and 99% of the money. I disagree
Troy +15.5 to +14 at BYU – 41% tickets and 97% of the money.
Tennessee -3 to -3.5 at South Carolina – Dual action 71% and 97% money.
NC State +9 to +6.5 at Virginia Tech – 53% tickets and 99% of the money.
Sharp Totals:
Louisville vs Pittsburgh Under 54.5 – 26% tickets and 67% of the money.
West Virginia vs Oklahoma State under 55 to 51.5 – 55% tickets and 83% of the money.
UTEP vs UL Monroe under 49.5 to 48.5 – 57% tickets and 90% of the money.
Georgia vs Arkansas under 52.5 – 63% tickets and 94% of the money.
Tennessee vs South Carolina under 48 to 43.5 – 48% tickets and 99% of the money.
NFL Week 2 Misleading Final Scores & Motivation Spots
Misleading Scores:
Chargers out-gained the Chiefs 479 to 414 yet lost 23 to 20 in OT. 1-0 turnover ratio is all
Cowboys out-gained the Falcons 570 to 380 but only won by 1 point. 3-0 turnover ratio hurt
Jaguars outgained the Titans 480-354 and lost by 3. 2-0 turnover ratio hurts
Panthers out-gained the Buccaneers 427 to 339 but lots of garbage yards. 2-0 turnover ratio hurt. No power ratings adjustments.
Patriots out-gained the Seahawks 464 to 429 and lost by 5. That’s football but goes to show you that they could have won this game.
Motivational Spots:
Let down Spots:
Seahawks after beating the pats felt like revenge to me.
Get up Spots:
Texans at the Steelers are disparate for a W
Falcons hosting the Bears are desperate for a W
Bengals and Eagles will put forth Big efforts to try and get the first win
Dolphins looking to upset Jacksonville
Look Ahead Spots:
Patriots could be looking past the Raiders to the Chiefs
Podcast 53 – 20 – College Football Week 4 With Ralph Michaels & NFL Week 3 & UFC 25–3 Sharp Movements – Sports Betting
We have a great show for you today! Ralph Michaels @CalSportsLV comes on to break down some college football games! First, Kiev gets into some NFL and shares a few of his free plays along with a refuse to lose teaser and a fun money parlay. Then, Ralph comes on to discuss some interesting trends for this year’s college season. Who is his largest power ratings adjustments? What are some of the things that we have learned? Next, Kiev and Ralph get into some big games and give out a few leans and some plays. Following that, Kiev gets into sharp line movements for the weekend in both College Football and the NFL, and finally, a free UFC 253 play!
NFL: LA Rams vs Buffalo – Houston vs Pittsburgh and more!
College Football: Kentucky vs Auburn – Florida State vs Miami and more!
#Sportsbetting #Gamblingtwitter #NCAA #NFL #UFC #Horseracing
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College Football Week 4 Motivational Spots
Let down spots:
None
Get up spots:
Florida State needs to get up at Miami after that horrid loss to Georgia Tech
Wake Forest hosting Notre Dame needs to protect being 0-3
Oklahoma in a revenge spot hosting Kansas State
Iowa State at TCU needs something after losing 2 week ago to Louisiana
Louisiana Monroe needs someone to beat up on hosting UTEP
Look Ahead Spots: Too early to be too serious about this
Florida could be looking past Ole Miss to South Carolina
Auburn could be looking past Kentucky to Georgia
Georgia could be looking past Arkansas to Auburn
College Football Week 3 Misleading Final Scores
Boston College vs Duke – Duke was only outgained by 23 yards but BC had a 5-1 turnover ratio. Poor Redzone efficiency for Duke.
Tulsa vs OKlahoma State – Tulsa outgained Ok State by 1 yards 278-277 yet lost by 9. They also had a 1-2 turnover ratio. Spencer Sanders for the Pokes did get injured tho.
Miami vs Louisville – Louisville outgained Miami 516 to 485 yards but a 3-0 turnover ratio and Miami’s D was the factors. Miami is the better team.
Texas State vs Louisiana Monroe – ULM outgained Texas State 444-398 but a 2-1 turnover ratio hurt and some of those yards were garbage time. No adjustment for both teams.
2020 SEC Power Ratings, Preview and Plays
The SEC is looked at as the best conference in football but I always tend to think that the Big 10 is right up there with them. Not this year and maybe not for a while! Big 10 has showed a lot of weakness trying to find reasons not to play. It could easily hurt their future for football recruits. Some serious talent left last year with the 2 top quarterbacks in the draft in Tua Tagovaiola and Joe Burrow hitting the pros. LSU also lost themselves coordinator Joe Brady to the NFL. Even with the talent that left to the NFL, a ton of talent always comes in for the SEC and I have an amazing 6 teams in the top 12 preseason rankings. I hate to say this as a big 10 fan, but this year, the SEC is the best conference in football. Let’s see where these team stack up.
1. Alabama – Power Rating – 26
2019 Record – 11-2
Key Transitions – Tua Tagovailoa, Henry Ruggs, Jerry Jeudy, Jedrick Wills, Xavier McKinney and others to the NFlL:
Returning Production: 88th – O55% D60%
Recruiting Rankings: ’17 – 1st ’18 – 5th ’19 – 1st
Recruiting – It’s Bama
Net YPP: 3.08 – It’s Bama
Turnover Margin: +18 – Saben would have their heads if it wasn’t this high
Schedule – Gifted Missouri and Kentucky from the schedule change. They get Georgia at home.
2019 closing line ATS – 7-6
2019 ATS Margin – +.6
Season Win Total: about 9
Summary: Losing Tua, Ruggs and Jeudy certainly hurt this team but with the number 1 draft class from 2017 and 2019 and 2 Very good QBS in Mac Jones, and Bryce young competing, I am not too worried. Nice to see Devana smith and Najee Harris returning. I Mean it’s Bama. Mac Jones is the favorite to start at quarterback on a reloaded team. The offense lost some serious firepower with Ruggs and Juedy going to the draft but it’s not like Jaylen Waddle and Devanta Smith aren’t capable future NFL players. The defense should definitely improve after giving up some embarrassing scores to Auburn and LSU. Allowing 4.8 yards per play wasn’t exactly Alabama football but I expect major improvement for 2020 from this unit Linebackers Dylan Moses and Joshua McMillion should be back who were injured early last year and will be coming back with a vengeance. Alabama was rewarded Kentucky and Missouri this year and they get to miss Florida.
My Wins – 9.25
2. Auburn – Power Rating – 21
2019 Record – 9-4
Key Transitions – Marlon Davidson, Noah Igbinoghene and Derrick Brown
Returning Production: 78th – O61% D60%
Recruiting – Around what Clemson has been doing
Recruting Ranking ’17 – 9th ’18 – 12th ’19 – 11th
Net YPP: .74 and really needs to get better. Expremly hard schedule last year.
Turnover Margin: +6 which is good
Schedule – Hard, but at least they got Tennessee instead of Florida and @South Carolina from the change. They do have to go to Georgia this year.
2019 closing line ATS – 9-4
2019 ATS Margin – +3.5 which is great!
Season win total: 6.5
Summary: Most intriguing team to me. Top 11 recruiting classes the last 3 years is very consistent. They lose some trenches to the draft but they return a decent amount of productions with 60% on both sides of the ball. I like how they return most of their skill positions with Seth Williams and Matthew Hill at WR. I love how they return Bo Nix at QB as well. Auburn hired Chad Morris as offensive coordinator who really didn’t get much of a shot at a Bielema decimated Arkansas team having only 2 years there before he got canned. He will have some very good talent coming back with Bo Nix and all of the skill positions in tact. Anthony Schwartz is said to be the fasted man in college football. If Auburn can rebuild the Trenches on both sides of the ball along with the secondary, this team will do some serous damage.
My number is 8 so over 6.5 is the play
3. Georgia – Power Rating – 20
2019 Record – 12-2
Key Transitions – QB Jake Fromm, OT Andrew Thomas, RB D’Andre swift, OT Isaiah Wilson
Returning Production: 59th – O50% D80%
Recruiting – Best 3 years in football
Recruiting Rankings: ’17 – 3rd ’18 – 1st ’19 – 2nd
2019 Net YPP: +1.79 on par
Turnover Margin: +3
Schedule – Hard. They play Bama and Auburn from the west. They always get Florida as well. That is at least 2 losses.
2019 closing line ATS – 8-6
2019 ATS Margin – +.2
Season Win total: 8.5
Summary: Jake from has went to the NFL and so did Swift and key parts of that offensive line. Does that matter? Maybe, but Georgia has recruited like a force of the past 4 years. It looks like Jaime Newman a transfer from Wake Forest will fill in at QB but I personally do not that that his fast style of offense is a fit. Newman’s offense at Wake ranked number 1 in pace of play at 82 average plays per game. JT Daniels is also transferring from USC and could have a shot to win the position. Kirby Smart decided to shake up the offense this year with the hire of Todd Monkin from Southern Miss. Hopefully he can fix this lethargic offense. The defense on the other hand may be the best in the country returning 80% production. Georgia will be a contender this year but they have a very hard schedule playing Alabama, Auburn and Florida.
Play: Under 8.5 – 2 star
4. Florida – Power Rating – 18.5
2019 Record – 11-2
Key Transitions – RB Le’Michael Perine, Edge Jabari Zuniga, WR Van Jefferson, LB Jonathan Greenard
2019 Returning Production: 61st – % D67%
Recruiting – averages in the O63teens
Recruiting Rankings: ’17 -’11th ’18 – 24th ’19 – 9th
2019 Net YPP: +1.57 which is solid
Turnover Margin: +5 where it needs to be
Schedule – Medium Easy – Gained Arkansas and @ Texas A&M – No Bama or Auburn. Gets LSU at home
2019 closing line ATS – 8-5
2019 ATS Margin – +5.4
Season Win Total: 7.5
Summary: This is a dangerous team with a great Schedule that could set themselves up for an SEC Championship run. Great top 11 recruiting over the past 4 years and decent returning production. The Gators due lose some skill positions like Van Jefferson and Josh Hammond but guys like Jacob Copeland and Justin Watkins should step right in. Returning their whole O-Line is huge. Their schedule consists of getting Texas A&M but avoiding Alabama and Auburn is huge this year. Getting LSU and South Carolina at home is nice. This team will go as far as Kyle Trask takes them.
MY Number: 8.5 so lean over
5. LSU – Power Rating – 17
2019 Record – 15-0
Key Transitions – lost everyone and their offensive gugu Joe Brady to the pros.
Returning Production: 125th – O30% D54%
Recruiting – Great
Recruiting Rankings: ’17 -’7th ’18 – 15th ’19 – 5th
2019 Net YPP: 2.78 – Amazing
Turnover Margin: +10
Schedule – Very hard – Got Bama, Auburn and at Florida. They kindly get Vanderbilt and Missouri added to the schedule as well.
2019 closing line ATS – 10-5
2019 ATS Margin – +8.1
Season Win Total: 7
Summary: I feel sorry for anyone who faded LSU before the season and during the season last year. Last year, LSU was the best college football team possibly ever. The tragic thing of course is all good things must come to an end and LSU lost everyone. I had to take this team down about 15 points in the power ratings but they still have had great recruiting and can earn their way back up. The Tigers do have some constancy at wide receiver and they bring in a touted Myles Brennan to try and take over the fast paced spread offense that Brady and Steve Ensminger introduced last year. If the RPO game looks sharp then this team can once again to great things. New defensive coordinator Bo Pelini is back to try and replace Dave Aranda’s success. He will switch the defense to a 4-3 which isn’t my style but it worked for Bo.
My Number 6.5 so lean under
6. Texas A&M – Power Rating – 15.5
2019 Record – 8-5
Key Transitions – None
Returning Production: 16th – O80% D74%
Recruiting Rankings: ’17 – 13th ’18 – 17th ’19 – 4th
Recruiting – Great with Jimbo
Net YPP: .57 – not there
Turnover Margin: -6 bad
Schedule – Always hard in the west and they were going to avoid both Florida and Georgia but now they get Florida at home added and @ Tennessee
2019 closing line ATS – 7-6
2019 ATS Margin – -1.7
Season Win Total: 7
Summary: If not now then when? Kellen Mond is a returning 4 year starter here and this team has not lived up to expectations yet. I am more of a patient person with coaches because Jimbo Fischer is finally getting to his recruits but I don’t know how they win in this tough conference with an average college QB like Mond. The Aggies have to turn that turn that turnover margin over to the positive side before we start getting excited for this team. Mond was 20-9 for his TD to turnover ratio which isn’t that good. What this team has going for them is a lot of returning production and a great coach who has won a natty at Florida State. If the kids buy into him then they should be able to take another step up but i fear that they have to switch quarterbacks at some point here.
My Wins – 7 so no play
7. Tennessee – Power Rating – 8
2019 Record – 8-5
Key Transitions – Edge Darrell Taylor to the NFL
Returning Production: 50th- O68% D69%
Recruiting Rankings: ’17 – 17th ’18 – 21st ’19 – 13th
Recruiting – Getting better
Net YPP: – +.78
Turnover Margin: -1
Schedule – Hard – The schedule wasn’t too bad until Auburn and A&M were added. Brutal
2019 closing line ATS – 7-6
2019 ATS Margin – +1.4
Season Win Total: 5
Summary: Its time for Jeremy Pruitt and the Vols to play like a real SEC team. Jerrit Gaurantanomo Bay should have some more tools here to take a step forward and further wash out the Butch Jones residue from 2017. Top 21 recruiting classes make them an interesting look this year. They rank about 50th in returning production which may be a good thing. The big problem here is that even though that they avoid Alabama, they still get Georgia, Auburn and Florida. Oklahoma at least falls off of their schedule. I am going to be looking at Tennessee games this year as an ATS darling.
My Number is 4.5 so lean under. Brutal schedule
8. Kentucky – Power Rating – 7.75
2019 Record – 8-5
Key Transitions – LB Kash Daniel and WR Lynn Bowden to the NFL
Returning Production: 25th – O68% D78%
Recruiting Rankings: ’17 – 30th ’18 – 37th ’19 – 34th
Recruiting – Decent for what they are
Net YPP: – +.89
Turnover Margin: -1 – Not good enough
Schedule – Hard – Schedule got pretty tough with the added @ Alabama. Also got Ole Miss added
2019 closing line ATS – 10-3
2019 ATS Margin – +6.4
Season Win Total: 5 over is -145
Summary: Kentucky is starting to recruit like a legit college football Team. Top 35 all 3 years is good. I like this team but they do have a hard schedule going to Florida, Auburn, Tennessee and now at Alabama, Missouri and of course home against Georgia. If they can get some legitmate QB play out of Terry Wilson, Beau Allen or even Sawyer Smith, then I like them ATS all year long. Top 25 returning production helps but they will have to replace Kash Daniels at LB. It is going to take Mark Stoops a lot to get this team in contention but they are certainly a massive step higher than they were 5 years ago. I think Kentucky is going to upset someone big. Not sure who but it will happen this year.
My Number is 5.5 so lean over
9. South Carolina – Power Rating – 6.75
2019 Record – 4-8
Key Transitions – DT Javon Kinlaw
Returning Production: 32nd – O72% D72%
Recruiting Rankings: ’17 – 21st ’18 – 18th ’19 – 21st
Recruiting – Standard for a team like this
Net YPP: -.35 Needs to improve this but they also had the hardest schedule in the league
Turnover Margin: +3 could be better
Schedule – Medium Easy – This team did inherit Auburn at home and @ Ole miss but tthey get to avoid Bama and A&M. They do get LSU.
2019 closing line ATS – 5-7
2019 ATS Margin – -1.9
Season Win Total: 3.5 over is -130
Summary: Ryan Hilinski is coming into this season without 3 running backs and 2 key wide receivers. The good news is that they only lost 1 offensive lineman. I like Ryan Hilinski and even though his numbers didn’t blow you away, he was just a freshman coming in and was able to put some points up vs Bama. I think the returning production on this team is pretty solid here ranking 32nd in the NCAA. The Gamecocks should be solid on defense this year even with the loss of Javon Kinlaw. They return 7 starters and 3 out of 5 secondary and 2 out of 3 linebackers. I think that the fact that they had such a hard schedule last year can help this team this year. Would not shock me to see them upset someone.
My Wins – 3.5 on the nose
10. Ole Miss – Power Rating – 6.5
2019 Record – 4-8
Key Transitions – Lane Kiffen to come and coach. No draft picks
Returning Production: – 35th – O78% D64%
Recruiting Rankings: ’17 – 31st ’18 – 32nd ’19 – 22nd
Recruiting – Meh
Net YPP: +.18 – doesn’t feel right
Turnover Margin: +1 – Not terrible
Schedule – Bad – Auburn, LSU, Bama and then Florida. Added was South Carolina and Kentucky
2019 closing line ATS – 7-5
2019 ATS Margin – +1.7
Season Win Total: 4
Summary: Let the Lane Kiffin era begin! It will be Matt Corall or John Plumblee at QB who both have experience. This team exceeded my expectations last year with positive Yards per play. Good returning production on offense and solid recruiting ranking 22th to 32nd helps Lane jump right into this coaching position. I trust the growth coming from the offense here. Just look what Lane did at Florida Atlantic. What I am not sure about is how quickly the defense can be thrown together. DJ Durkin had a very rough stint at Maryland a few years back but he did have success at Florida years prior to that. This team if they can grasp the Kiffen play book can be dangerous.
My Wins 3.5 so strong lean under
11. Mississippi State – Power Rating – 5.5
2019 Record – 6-7
Key Transitions – Mike leach in as Coach. Joe Moorehead out. QB Tommy Stevens and LB Willie Gay to NFL.
Returning Production: – 110th – O54% D48%
Recruiting Rankings: ’17 –24th ’18 – 27th ’19 – 24th
Recruiting – Pretty good
Net YPP: -.24 yuck
Turnover Margin: +1
Schedule – Hard – They get typical Alabama, LSU and Auburn while inheriting Georgia and Vandy.
2019 closing line ATS – 5-8
2019 ATS Margin – -4.7
Season Win Total: 4 now juiced to the under
Summary: The good news is that this team is getting a grad Transfer in KJ Costello from Stanford to start at Quarterback this year. The bad news is that they rank 110th in returning production. This team has a new coach anyways in Mike Leach who will try to bring that high powered spread offense into the SEC. I used to say that was easier said that done until I saw some success with Auburn and LSU’s styles the past few years. One thing that we must note is that Mississippi State did not recruit bad at all the last few years averaging in the 20s. I think that this will be a honeymoon year for the Rebels but maybe Leach will eventually figure it out like he always does. Can’t wait to see this personality coach int he SEC.
My Wins – 3.5
12. Missouri – Power Rating – 3.5
2019 Record – 6-6
Key Transitions – None really
Returning Production: – 100th – O43% D64%
Recruiting Rankings: ’17 –43rd ’18 – 43rd ’19 – 47th
Recruiting – Like a bad power 5 school
Net YPP: +.41 – better than record showed
Turnover Margin: +1
Schedule – Hard – Had a great schedule until the SEC came in and dropped Alabama and LSU on them BRUTAL!!!
2019 closing line ATS – 4-8
2019 ATS Margin – -5.2 horrible
Season Win Total: 2.5 to the over is -140
Summary: This team has a lot of work to do. they return only 4 starters on offense and have no consistency at quarterback. The good news is that they have TCU transfer Shawn Robinson there who has experience and showed a lot of poise in 2018. They also have a nice grad transfer from Va Tech in Damon Hazelton who had over 1300 yards and 16 TDs the last 2 seasons. Missouri was a weird team who could not capitalize in the red zone with only a 73% success rate there. They also averaged a modest positive .4 yards per play which makes me scratch my head in why they were so bad. The Tiger’s defense last year actually wasn’t too bad only allowing 4.86 YPP and they return a solid 7 starters. They need some improvement in the offense to contend in this hard conference.
My Wins – 2.75 – Vandy and Arkansas at home are wins but they have a shot hosting Kentucky and slight at Mississippi State
13. Arkansas – Power Rating – -2
2019 Record – 2-10
Key Transitions – Sam Pittman as coach and Barry Odem as DC
Returning Production: – 58th – O63% D68%
Recruiting Rankings: ’17 –27th ’18 – 45th ’19 – 23rd
Recruiting – Still ok
Net YPP: -1.33 – Horrible
Turnover Margin: -5 – No surprise
Schedule – Hard – Another terrible team that got screwed with Florida and Georgia added to the schedule
2019 closing line ATS – 4-8
2019 ATS Margin – -8.2 horrible
Season Win Total: 1
Summary: Horrible Horrible Horrible. This is why you see a new coach in Sam Pittman in after Chad Morris was quickly escorted out after only 2 years. I personally think that Chad Morris was treated unfairly due to inheriting a debacle of a Brett Bielema squad. How can you fix a team without your own recruits!!!??? The good news is that Pittman has lots of experience at Georgia and knows what a winning program looks like. Anyways, this team has Felipe Franks who transferred from Florida with a second chance in life to compete for the starting QB position. This team at least returns all of their skill positions 4 out of 5 offensive lineman. The defense last year was the worst in the SEC and Barry Odem was hired to fix it. Until I see improvement, this team will continue to be on my fade train and especially with that -8.2 ATS margin from last year.
My Wins – .75 – They might get one at home vs Missouri but I wouldn’t bet that now. Mississippi State is another shot. No play
14. Vanderbilt – Power Rating – -7
2019 Record – 3-9
Key Transitions – keyshawn vaughn
Returning Production: – 71st – O35% D93%
Recruiting Rankings: ’17 –65th ’18 – 41st ’19 – 58th
Recruiting – Like a group of 5 school
Net YPP: -1.18 – Yuck and the schedule was easy last year
Turnover Margin: -2
Schedule – Medium Hard – Had Ole Miss and A&M but had LSU and Mississippi State added. Does it matter?
2019 closing line ATS – 4-8
2019 ATS Margin – -5.2 horrible
Season Win Total: .5
Summary: This Vanderbilt team was horrible last year and I am not even sure that this team even quit during the season. The biggest head scratcher to me is how the heck did they score 38 points vs LSU? Part of the reason is that there was a lot of injuries last year for Vandy and after that game, and they were not able to beat anyone with a pulse. The loss at home to UNLV was the height of their demise and it is a surprise to some that Derek Mason kept his job. The team needs some serious help on defense and they went hired Ted Roof who is most known for his defense at Georgia Tech and he will switch the scheme to a 4-3 which could actually help stop the run. Let’s see if there is much improvement from last year but the recruiting has really not been there to give me any optimism.
My Wins – Poor bastards will probably go 0-10. At Missouri might be the only shot
References:
247 Sports: https://247sports.com/season/2017-football/compositeteamrankings/
Bill Connelly of ESPN https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/28649423/college-football-teams-most-returning-production-2020
