Revenge is something that we shouldn’t rely on too much in our handicaps. All teams really want to win all games and revenge is just a motivational factor. In saying that, there are some situations that warrant revenge more than others and embarrassment is one of the big ones. Iowa faced Purdue earlier this year and couldn’t do anything against the Boilermakers at Mackey Arena . Purdue shot over 65% the first half and didn’t even let off the gas at the end of the game and thus destroyed Iowa 104-68. Purdue would have beaten Gonzaga and Kansas on that day. Due to the embarrassment, Iowa should be extra motivated here to return the favor. The thing that really screams out to me in this handicap is that Purdue is only 37.4% shooting on the road. That is one of the worst road percentages in the whole NCAA. Iowa shoots very well at home at 47%. One might say that Purdue is a bubble team and should also be extra motivated here but Iowa is vying for a shot to win the Big 10 regular season title which they haven’t won since 1979. Iowa is also 8-1-1 ATS at home their last 10 games. I think Iowa will step up their defense this game and come through with the big win by a decent margin.
Iowa -4.5 – 2.5 star premium shared play
Utah State +350 to win the Mountain West:
San Diego state may be the best team in this conference but Utah State is the most motivated because they will not get in as an at large team this year. Sam Merrill is one of the best guards in basketball and I think he can bring this team to win the Mountain West Championship while San Diego State will still be a coveted 1 or 2 seed in the Big dance.
March Madness is upon us and we have a great show for you today! Greg Peterson from Hoopin with Hoops is here to discuss some college basketball conference tournaments and a few games for Tuesday and Wednesday! First, Kiev talks about the weekend and some of the upsets that happened. Then, he talks about some over and under-rated teams on Kenpom. Next, Kiev talks about his Big 10 rankings and how they changed over the weekend. Then, Kiev and Greg get into some conference tournaments and throw out a few dark horses. Finally the guys talk about a few games for Tuesday and Wednesday.
NCAA: Conference Tournaments – Michigan State vs Penn State and more!
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Here is a little rival for you on Friday night. These 2 teams are in a conference that is really bunched up with no real front-runner except maybe Little Rock. These teams played earlier at Georgia Southern with the Georgia State Panthers winning 82-77. Both of these teams rank in the top 40 for Tempo but neither team’s defense is all that great without breaking in the top 100 in efficiency. Being that this game is so big to both of these teams, I feel like the over may be worth a look but I really think Georgia State wins this by 7 to 10 points. The Eagles rely on the three point game too much and they can’t seem to rebound the ball ranking 263rd in offensive rebounds in the nation. Also being an away game will hurt their shooting percentage some as well.
Georgia State -5 – 1.5 star premium shared
Saturday:
Michigan State vs Maryland -3 O/U 137
These two teams both had massive comebacks their last game. Michigan State was losing to Iowa and won in the last few minutes and also covered at home and Maryland went on a 10-0 run and won on a huge buzzer beater at Minnesota. This game is huge for Maryland because they clinch the Big 10 regular season title with this win. Michigan State however needs to win to have a shot to tie for the Big 10 regular season but looking at their schedule, they still have @ Penn State and against Ohio State after this game. I personally disagree with Kenpom and Bart Torvik’s ratings on Michigan State. I think some of Sparty’s stats have been padded on some blowout games which is something that is hard to normalize. I think they are a bit high but I also don’t love Maryland’s shooting percentage at only 41.6 % and 43% at home. Heck Michigan State actually shoots 43.6% on the road. These teams played already in East Lansing and Maryland won that game because of their great defense. I think it is their defense that keep them winning most of these games and that is where Kenpom and Torvik is a bit short on them. Maryland allows only 60 points per game at home while Michigan State allows 68 on the road. In saying this, Michigan State has had a harder schedule. What will Maryland do in this situation is what could be hard to quantify under Mark Turgeon. Maybe the under would be a good look being how big this game will be.
Lean Maryland and Under 137 – 1.5 star premium shared
Pittsburgh vs NC State -8.5 O/U 135
I think this is one of those situations where you see a desperate bubble team playing at home vs a team that may have mailed it in. NC State has some very good wins vs Wisconsin, Virginia and Duke this year but they are also coming off of 2 losses and a poor 8-9 conference record. The Wolfpack is definitely not in the tournament as of yet, and I think that they know that they can’t afford to drop this one. The Wolfpack is one of those very average ACC teams that had some lucky wins. They have some good leadership with seniors like Markell Johnson and CJ Bryce, but they do not shoot the 3 ball too well. One positive is that they still average over 44% from the field. Pittsburgh is one of the worst shooting teams at 40.8% ranking 310th in the nation. This team just got blown out at home by a below average Syracuse team and now they have to go on the road and show up for basically no reason. The Panthers only have 2 away wins this year and one in conference way back vs a very ailing North Carolina team. The other was Robert Morris. I think that NC State takes care of business here and wins by a double digit margin.
NC State -8.5 – 2 star premium shared
Duke vs Virginia +4 O/U 124
Believe it or not, Virginia is still a bubble team because their best non-conference win is against ASU.
Virinia won 8 of their last 9 games
Mamadi Diakite will be on Vernon Carey and if he can slow Carey down, then look out.
Duke does shoot a 3 much better than last year ranking 78th compared to 324th in 2019.
I really do not want to go against duke after they just lost 2 out of 3 but Virginia looks like the right side.
Lean Virginia
Auburn vs Kentucky -5.5 O/U 140
I have harped on Auburn a lot this year already but I can safely say that they are the second best team in the SEC. Sorry Florida and LSU. Auburn certainly has their deficiencies. They can be very hot and cold and you can see that from 3 point land. They shoot a lot of threes but they do not make a lot of them ranking 330th and 30%. The good news is that they can rebound very well and they clean up by hitting a very high percentage 2 point shot. Kentucky doesn’t shoot many 3s at all ranking 349th in attempts because they are so big inside that they can usually muscle their way to the hoop. Kentucky can shoot free throws very well as we saw them cover because of it last weekend vs Florida. Auburn doesn’t shoot FTs well but the fact that they are a dog bothers me less for that fact. When it comes to big games like this I usually like to look at the dog, but the fact that Auburn’s home road splits are so bad makes me look towards the other side. Auburn only shoots 39% on the road which is quite bad. Kentucky should be able to clean up a lot of those rebounds with their height. One angle that I did find in this game is that Kentucky plays faster than their tempo ranking 170th in possession length compared to 213th in adjusted tempo and Auburn the same ranking 69th in possession length while 169 in tempo. Both of these teams also are top 15 in free throw attempts so I have to look at the over and lean to Kentucky
Over 140 1.5 stars and lean Kentucky
San Diego State vs Nevada +7 O/U 141
Nevada has been playing much better lately but they do not have any top 75 wins and this win won’t put them on the 2 seed
San Diego State needs this win more
I do wish that San Diego State didn’t lose Nathan Mensah. Now they are small down low and can get beat up in the tournament.
Lean San Diego State
Sunday:
Colorado vs Stanford -1 O/U 129
Stanford is a much better team than their record shows and I think they still have a shot of making the tournament. They need to win their last 3 games against Colorado, Oregon State and Oregon. Stanford had a terrible skid in the pack 12 this year losing at one point 8 out of 9 games. Part of that was because they had some random injuries popping up including their best player Oscar Da Silva. Colorado is in the tournament with wins vs Dayton, Clemson and most of the Pac 12, but I think that their home road splits tell the story. Colorado is a great home team shooting 47% but they only can hit 40% on the road. Stanford is a great shooting team averaging 48.3% at home. They also play great defense ranking 7th in the nation on Kenpom. Their only weakness is holding on the the ball and rebounds but they are taller than Colorado and great at stealing the ball as well which will help even that out. With Stanfords hight percentage and great defensive play, it is shocking to me seeing them where they are at in the Pac 12 and I think this could be a great spot making it a large play on the Cardinal.
March Madness is almost here and we are on a great run! 7-3-1 last weekend in College hoops. First, Kiev talks about some big upsets that just occurred and which teams are overrated. Next, we get into our Big 10 basketball rankings. Then, Kyle Hunter @kylehunterpicks from bettersportspicks.com comes on and discusses what kind of situations to look for this time of year as well as ones to avoid. Then, the guys talk about some teams that could make some noise in the NCAA Tournament. Next, the guys get into some huge games for this weekend. Finally, Kyle gives out an extra free play!
NCAA: Michigan State vs Maryland – Auburn vs Kentucky – Duke vs Virginia – Colorado vs Stanford and more!
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This week Paul looks back at Vegas and talks about manufacture domination as well as the lack of speed from the Toyotas. Next Paul looks at trends and who to watch this week at Auto Club Speedway in Fontana California. Finally Paul give his free pick to win the race.
I wonder how Michigan State feels about Iowa being ranked higher than them? In saying that, Iowa deserves to be ranked higher than them due to some of their clutch wins this year and they have been better as of late. This doesn’t mean that Iowa is necessarily better than Michigan State. The Spartans know how to turn it up especially when the going gets tough. They certainly have the horses to do it with Cassius Winston leading the way and guys like Xavier Tillmen and Gabe Brown down low. The problem that Sparty will have here is that Iowa has the size to defend this team. 6’11 Luka Garza might be the most explosive player in the Big 10 and 6’10 Ryan Kriener has definitely improved. Iowa should also get CJ Fredrick back who has been an up and coming leader to this team. He will be able help slow down Winston. I think there may be some value in the total. People still think of Iowa is that fast paced team that doesn’t play defense due to some away blowouts. When Iowa lost to Purdue and Indiana this month, those teams literally shot out of their minds. Iowa should also be able to disrupt Sparty’s big guys down low forcing them to kick out the ball in many situations during the game. I think that this time of year the under may be a good look for these teams. This should be a match-up scenario where both Kriener and Garza will be playing at the same time quite often to defend Michigan State’s bigs and thus slowing down the game. Both of these teams will step of the defense trying to retain second place in the Big 10 regular season.
Under 152 – 2 star premium shared
Mississippi vs Auburn -9 O/U 138.5
Auburn is the second luckiest team on Kenpom and because of that I have to think that they are a little overrated. Somehow this team keeps beating teams late in the games but they haven’t blown out anyone since Georgia in early January. They actually played Ole Miss and went into overtime on January 28th and won. I am sure the Rebels remember that well. Both teams may be without one key player in KJ Buffen for Ole miss with a back injury and Isaac Okuru with a hamstring for Auburn. Auburn has a shot to win the SEC if they can beat Kentucky and Kentucky falls at Florida in their last game of the season. I think the Tigers know this and they have Kentucky on deck after this game. This is a look ahead spot for Auburn and a slight revenge spot for Ole Miss. The Rebels have not given up on their season and if they win out, they are a true bubble team with earlier wins against Florida and Penn State. Ole Miss is on a 7-2 ATS run since January 25th and I think they will be competitive this game.
Creighton +4500 (5dimes) to win NCAA championship Premium shared – .33 star – Ok, so I think there is some value here. Creighton has 4 games left and 3 of them are at home. Their away game is at St Johns who is the second worst team in the Big East. The Bluejays rank 15th on Kenpom which says that they are about a 4 seed with some upside. I think that this team is sweet 16 material. Reminder that the hedging is all up to you.
UNC really had Duke on the ropes a few weeks back and just blew it. Cole Anthony has been the player that tells you if they are going to win or not. Anthony takes 1/3rd of their shots and doesn’t exactly do much on defense. UNC later had 2 games that they almost won at home vs Virginia and away at Notre Dame losing at the last seconds of the game. Louisville had a little run of bad play and lost a few games but just had their slump buster against Syracuse on Wednesday winning by over 20. Louisville is clearly better than North Carolina and every stat line would tell you that, but I am not sure that Louisville is better by over 10 points at home. This game to me will depend upon what kind of effort I see from UNC in the start. This should show up on how they play defense in the first few possessions. If UNC looks like they came to ball then I think live betting them could be an option but if they look like the UNC that has given up on the season then hit Louisville live.
Live bet situation
Michigan vs Purdue -2.5 O/U 134
Michigan is so hot right now and Purdue definitely is not but what I do know is that Livers didn’t play against Rutgers and may not play in this game either. Purdue has went in the opposite direction losing their last 3 games to Penn State, Ohio State and Wisconsin. This is just one of those buy low sell high games. The Boilermakers are not the best shooting team on the road as we know but they have a nice 48% at home. the Wolverine’s have actually stepped it up on the road lately shooting a nice 45.5%. These teams already played this year going into double overtime in Ann Arbor. Purdue almost had them and choked it away. The way to look at this game is the outlook of each team. Michigan is in the big dance for sure this year and do not need this win nearly as much as bubble team Purdue. I also like how Purdue is better at offensive rebounding the ball at 34.7% to Michigan’s 26%. The Boilermakers are 54-27-2 ATS at home since 2014 which is 67%. This is almost a do or die game because Purdue’s last 2 home games are against Indiana and Rutgers.
Purdue -2.5 – 2 star premium shared play
Florida vs Kentucky -5 O/U 139
Both of these teams are very good lately with Florida winning 5 of their last 6 games and Kentucky winning 13 of their last 15 and on a 5 game winning streak since Auburn. Personally, I really do not think that Kentucky should have lost to Auburn due to some extenuating zebra type circumstances but that in my opinion gives me more strength to this handicap. Kentucky to me is that team who really let’s down against the smaller teams with losses against South Carolina and Evansville and and gets up against the tougher teams like Michigan State, LSU and Texas Tech. Florida on the other hand is only 3-5 ATS on the road and I think that they might not be quite as good as the record shows. Their best win overall is against a very lucky Auburn team who actually ranks number 2 in Luck. Florida’s best true road win was against number 73 South Carolina back on January 7th. Florida has a pretty good stat line but they are actually a bit weak on defense compared to other Gator teams of the past. They are also kind of a shorter team down low compared to Kentucky with their only real threat being Blackshear who is the only starter over 6’5. Kentucky has EJ Mongomery and Nick Richards down low who should be able to at least slow down Blackshear. I think that Florida will come back down to earth this game and Kentucky will show why they are legit contenders
Kentucky -5 – 3 star premium play
Oregon vs Arizona -5 O/U 143
This is the game that will decide the Pac 12 being that Colorado has 3 road games to finish off
What is interesting to me is that both teams play Thursday night and will be on short rest here.
Oregon shoots 51% at home but only 42% on the road. Arizona shoots 47.8% at home.
Arizona lost in Overtime at Oregon earlier this year
Both teams play faster than their Tempo by a lot if you look at seconds per possion
I have the score Arizona 79-72 So i really like the over unless Oregon implodes
Over 141 – 2 star
Gonzaga vs BYU + 3.5 O/U 162
Not sure how the committee will look at BYU playing in a weak conference with only one good win against Houston and 7 losses. This makes this a huge game for them.
I like BYU cause they are at home and shoot the best 3 point shot in all of basketball at 42.3%. Gonzaga doesn’t defend the 3 as well ranking 96th in opponent 3 point percent. Zaga is a taller team for sure but Yoeli Childs is a beast and he missed half of their games that they have played.
This is a HR spot for the Zags and I have to be on them.
BYU +5 – 2 star premium and sprinkle
Kansas vs Baylor -2 O/U 127
This game is larger than HUGE. Not only is it for a share of the Big 12 regular season but in my opinion, this game will dictate which team has the best chance as a 1 seed or at least the top one seed in the NCAA tournament. Kansas hasn’t lost since they played Baylor back on January 11th and they have some huge wins vs Dayton, BYU, West Virginia and Colorado. The Jayhawks rank 1st in offensive efficiency and 10th in defensive efficiency. Their only weakness is Free Throws. Baylor is obviously amazing and undefeated in the Big 12 conference play with just 1 loss in the season to Washington way back when we were wondering if LSU can beat Alabama. Baylor beat Kansas in Kansas already and has handled the rest of the competition in their division. They rank 22nd in offensive efficiency and 3rd in defensive efficiency. Their only weakness is their lower effective FG% of 49.6 and seem to struggle sometimes in the paint. I think that the way to beat the Bears is to beat them at their own game of rebounding the ball and playing great defense. Udoka Azubuike who is the 7 foot center for the Jayhawks will play a huge part in this game. Kansas has the ability to shoot the ball much better than they do. The edge that I actually have found in this game is that, for some reason, Baylor shoots better on the road at 44.8% rather than at home at 41.5%. Kansas shoots well on the road at 47.3% and if they can do anything over 44% they have a chance this game to win. I like the Jayhawks here to keep the March madness seeding interesting.
Kansas +2 – 2 star premium shared
Sunday:
Maryland vs Ohio State -3 O/U 131
What a huge game and another huge spot for Maryland. This Maryland team has really caught their stride and will be on a nice 4 day rest. Ohio State will be only on a 2 day rest after running up and down the court vs Maryland. The Buckeye’s have shown to be vulnerable at home with losses to Wisconsin and Minnesota. Maryland has really stepped it up lately on offense and their defense is better than Ohio State’s. I have to go with the Terps here cause they are motivated to win the Big 10 regular season and Ohio State with 7 losses is out of that contention.
We have a great show for you today! Brian Edwards @Vegasbedwards is back from Majorwager.com to break down an AMAZING weekend of games! First, Kiev talks about a crazy Tuesday and Wednesday in college hoops. Next, we get into our Big 10 rankings and discuss what to look for this time of year. Then Brian comes on and get right into what happened in the UFC 247 and why there was so much controversy in the decisions. Brian also gives us a play for the main event in UFC fight night 168 this weekend! Then, the guys discuss a little football talking about Florida’s cake schedule for 2020. Finally the guys get into the huge games this weekend with some plays!
NCAA: Kansas vs Baylor – Michigan vs Purdue – Florida vs Kentucky – Gonzaga vs BYU and more!
#Sportsbetting #Gamblingtwitter #NCAA #NFL
Should you need a sports book please visit mybookie.ag and use the promo code, “theoddsbreakers” to get a 50% sign up bonus! Terms and conditions apply.
For only 17.99 a month become an ODDSBREAKER’S MEMBER and gain access to all premium picks BEFORE the line moves please visit theoddsbreakers.com or for $19.99 per month get all of that while adding access to the podcast early by becoming our Patreon at https://www.patreon.com/join/theoddsbreakers?
Follow us on Twitter @theoddsbreakers @OBKiev #theoddsbreakers
