Illinois vs Penn State -7 O/U 141

Well this is the spot that I have been waiting for.  What is more important to which team is what you need to ask yourself when looking at this game.   Penn State beating Illinois at home by a large margin or Illinois getting their heads out of their asses and get a much needed win being that they have’t won yet this month?    I will go with the Illini here.   The reason that they have been struggling so much is because their big men like Giorgi Bezhanishvili can’t shoot the ball lately and Cofi Cockburn can’t hold onto the ball and is also missing some easy shots.   Well they have to get out of this slump here at some point and there is no better time than now vs Penn State.   The Nittany Lions are pretty good at everything that they do but nothing statistically really stands out.   They are 19th in offensive efficiency and 20th in defensive efficiency.   I think some teams may have overlooked them a bit this year.   The Illini is a very good rebounding team despite their big man woes and I expect them to get a few extra possessions this game.   Penn State will be a favorite here but shooting only 69.2% from the free throw line tells me that they could miss some stay ahead of the spread shots at the end of this game.   I expect a huge effort here from the Illini because of their coach Brad Underwood.  Plus point guard Myron Jones is still out for Penn State with an illness.  Illinois Ayo Dosunmu is questionable.  Too many points here for this situation.

Illinois +7 – 2 star premium shared and sprinkle ML

Creighton vs Marquette -3 O/U 155

Now this total should tell you that this will be one of those high flying games that the fans love in College Basketball.   Creighton has been on a tear winning 7 of their last 8 games in the Big easy and they have almost already punched their card into the NCAA tournament with nice non-conference wins vs Texas Tech and Oklahoma but they still have some more to prove now that Seton Hall has 3 conference losses.  The smell of blood is in the air.   Marquette in my opinion hasn’t punched their ticket yet due to Purdue looking poor down the stretch here.   What I do know about these teams is that hey both like to play fast.   Marquette hasn’t scored less than 76 points at home since they played Villanova and Creighton doesn’t exactly play slow averaging 16.5 seconds per possession.   They also have a pretty weak defense ranking only 82nd in efficiency.   Creighton’s offense is very efficient ranking 4th in the nation with Marquette’s ranking 16th led by Markus Howard.  I like Marquette here at home under the 3.5 a little bit because this is such a huge getup spot for them and they lost at Creighton way back on January 1st making it somewhat a revenge spot.  I really like the over even more under 160 being that Creighton plays faster than their 69.1 possessions per game tells me.  Creighton has averaged about 91 points their last 3 games.

Marquette – 1.5 star premium shared play and over 155 – 2.5 star premium shared play

(updated 2/8)

Friday:

Maryland vs Illinois -2.5 O/U 131

This game is huge.  It is for sole possession of the lead in the big 10 regular season!  Maryland has been on a tear lately and they finally got their road victories against Northwestern and Indiana.   They came home and beat Iowa and Rutgers real good as well.  Illinois is better than Maryland as a whole in my opinion and it is because they have better overall guard play.   I think that after that debacle in Iowa, the Illini will be poised to get a huge W at home.  Maryland ranks higher on both offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency than Illinois this year but I think the real reason that is because they started higher up in the preseason.   Maryland’s best win is against Ohio State and we learned that they are not all that this year.   Maryland’s second best is at home against Illinois by 1 point and I am sure that Brad Underwood’s team remembers it well.  Illinois can match up with Cockburn down low against Jalen Smith.   Ayo Dosumu should be able to guard Anthony Cowan and slow him down.  Frazier and Feliz should be able to rotate against Aaron Wiggens and slow down that three ball.   Maryland is ranked pretty high for their offensive woes only ranking 245th in effective FG percentage.   Illinois ranks 185th and is better in blocked shots and rebounds.  They are about equal in free throws.  I am talking the short favorite here to bounce back and get the W for 2 stars.

Illinois -2.5 – 2 star premium shared

Saturday:

LSU vs Auburn -4 O/U 152

LSU just lost to Vanderbilt.   Brutal.   Now they get to go play an Auburn team who just came off of 2 huge victories coming home.   We know that LSU plays terrible defense this year ranking 122nd on Kenpom which is quite pathetic for a power 5 team.  What keeps them in games is an amazing offense ranking 6th in efficiency.   Auburn themselves are a bit above average on offense ranking 31st and they rank 44th on defense.   This game on a neutral court would be a pickem.  Both of these teams play pretty fast at 16.6 to 17 seconds per possession but when they are blowing out another team, both teams tend to slow it down a bit.   The good news is that I do not think either of these teams will be in a blowout and I expect a much closer game which should mean higher scoring.   I am going to take the over in this game small but I will wait until morning to play it.

Over 153 – 1 star premium shared

Michigan State vs Michigan -1 O/U 143

I almost feel that it is do or die for Michigan here if they want a legitimate shot at making the tournament.   The problem for them is that Michigan State is pissed off at losing their previous 2 games and might just play out of their minds.   Michigan is a good team on paper but when it comes to big 10 play, they are a dismal 4-7 ranking 4th in FG percentage and 11th in defense.   They also struggle from 3.  I thought that Livers would be back to help them out last game but I was wrong and they have a lot of inexperienced players in their rotation.   Michigan State handled this team very well last game in east lansing and I do not think Michigan will have enough to take them over the hump.   State is still at top 10 Kenpom team rankings 2nd in offense and 1st in defense in conference play.   I do not think that Michigan will have the endurance to keep up with them and shoot over their tall rotation in the perimeter.   Michigan was really beat up after playing Ohio State and I think it gets worse when they face an even more physical team like State.

Michigan State -2.5 – 2.5 star premium shared

Virginia vs Louisville -10 O/U 108

Huge game here for both teams.   Virginia is most likely not making it in the big dance.  They rank first in defense in the conference and dead last in offense.

I do not think that Virginia can get away with playing that super slow pace against Louisville yet I don’t see how they can score.   Chris Mack’s team knows what to expect here.  They lost to them last year.  Virginia is just a shell of themselves now. The Line came out a big too high

Under 114 – 1.5 star premium play

Gonzaga vs Saint Mary’s +3.5 O/U 151

I personally don’t think that Saint Mary’s is that good.   Their Wisconsin, ASU and Utah State wins certainly do not look quite as good anymore.  THeir Pacific and Santa Clara losses look pretty bad to me.   Gonzaga is the much taller team and faster paced.  Saint Mary’s is much more experienced.   This is kind of a revenge spot in my opinion when Gonzaga lost to this team in the West Coast Conference tournament.   Gonzaga already had a scare at San Francisco last weekend and I think they should be ready.

Gonzaga -5 – 1 star premium shared

Sunday:

Wichita State vs Houston -5.5 O/U 133

I made the mistake of betting Wichita State against Houston last game when the Shockers were at home.   It seemed that they couldn’t even shoot the ball over Houston’s swarming defense.   Not to mention that they went on a 14 minute streak without hitting anything.   I do not know what is more fraudulent, Wichita State’s kenpom ranking at 40 or Gonzaga’s strength of schedule.   What I do know is that Houston just had a bad loss at Cincinnati and should want to go on a little run.  My concern for Houston is that they still have some shooting problems at only 48.4% effective Fg and they could have some issues with Witchita’s D.   At 5.5 i don’t like it as much so just a lean.

Lean Houston -5.5

Mississippi State vs Kentucky -5.5 O/U 140

Ok, so it is quite obvious that the zebras hate coach Cal and that will be something that has to be taken into account the rest of this year, but in this spot, I think this line is a bit too short.   This game should be a big bounce back spot for the Cats.   Mississippi State is what I would call a pretty good team and they won 5 of their last 6 games including at Florida but this is a spot where I think they come back to earth a bit.   Kentucky is a team who can match up with anybody.  They turn the volume up when needed and this is one of those spots where they need a nice performance.  Kentucky scores their points inside the paint and we can tell that easily looking at their 3 point percentage.   Mississippi State doesn’t do anything that great and they happen to have a poor defense down low only ranking 120th against 2 point shots.  Kentucky’s main weakness is turning the ball over yet Mississippi State only ranks 182nd in adjusted defensive turnovers.  I also like how Kentucky ranks 11th in free throws which is something that could be needed at the end of the game.  Mississippi State hasn’t beaten anybody in the top 30 this year while Kentucky has beaten Michigan State, Louisville and Texas Tech.  Take the Cats.

Kentucky -5.5 (-125) – 1 star premium shared

Ohio State vs Michigan -2.5 O/U 136

These 2 teams are going in opposite directions.  Michigan really pulled it together their last 2 games getting Livers back who was a key to their offense.   Ohio State just lost their 3rd best scorer in DJ Carton for personal reasons and going on the road without him won’t be good.  The Buckeye’s best weapon is Kaleb Wesson down low.   He is a beast when he is on but Michigan’s John Teske is also a 7 foot beast and he should be able to slow Wesson down a bit.  Ohio State’s slow pace of play actually works against them in this Michigan match-up because it give’s more rest to Michigan’s big guys and they will not be running as much.  Michigan has owned this Match-up since early in 2018 and I think they will finally get of the schneid and get a much needed win at home which they haven’t seen since January 9th.

Michigan -2.5 – 2 star premium shared