We have an AMAZING and FULLY LOADED Super Bowl LIV Show for you today! KC Schneider @profootballedge www.profootballedge.com comes on to talk about his system and great winning success in the NFL. Then we talk bout how the Super Bowl should be treated. Next, Marco D’Angelo @MarcoInVegas from Wagertalk.com comes on to talk about this huge weekend! They guys first talk about the new Raiders Stadium and the New Circa hotel and sports book coming to Vegas! Then, we talk about some excitement in the horse racing world. Next, the guys talk in great detail about #SUPERBOWLLIV and how it will play out. We also discuss when it is time to place some of your bets. Then, we give out a bunch of free prop plays that will keep you with plenty of action during the big game! Finally, Marco and Kiev give out some College Basketball information and plays for this HUGE weekend!
0-3:30 Intro and Info
3:30 – 16:41 – KC Schneider NFL Success and Superbowl talk
16:41 – 39:30 – Marco discusses the new Circa, what keeps people coming to these lavish books and a Bob Baffert horse who is getting some hype before the prep races
39:30 – 1:19.36 – Super Bowl betting sided and props
1:19.36 – 1:40 – College Basketball break downs and plays for this weekend
NFL: Super Bowl – San Francisco vs Kansas City
College Basketball – Kentucky vs Auburn – Michigan State vs Wisconsin and more!
#Sportsbetting #Gamblingtwitter #NCAA #NFL
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First, Kiev talks about the loss of Kobe Bryant, how it felt, and what is his legacy. Next, Kiev tells us how and when to bet college basketball championship futures. Then, Kiev talks about an idea to fix college basketball to make it a better viewing experience at the end of these games. Next, Kiev talks about his Big 10 rankings and get’s into a Super Bowl breakdown. A few more prop bets are given out! Finally, Kiev give’s out a College Basketball Play for Tuesday 1/28/19!
NFL: Super Bowl – San Francisco vs Kansas City
#Sportsbetting #Gamblingtwitter #NCAA #NFL
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For only 17.99 a month become an ODDSBREAKER’S MEMBER and gain access to all premium picks BEFORE the line moves please visit theoddsbreakers.com or for $19.99 per month get all of that while adding access to the podcast early by becoming our Patreon at https://www.patreon.com/join/theoddsbreakers?
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Butler was just a top 5 team and then, all of a sudden, dropped out of the rankings due to losing 3 games in a row. One thing that you can’t take away from Butler is how well that they play defense ranking 20th on Kenpom and 13th against 3 point shots. I mention the 3s because it is very important to this handicap. Marquette shoots a lot of them and needs to hit a lot of them to keep winning. They rank 5th in three point percentage thanks to star Marcus Howard and Sacar Amin both over 40%. They also shoot the 3 pretty often ranking 50th in attempts. Marquette has been on a nice run lately but they haven’t had to face a defense this good since Seton Hall where the lost on the road by 14 points. Marquette is a terrible road team who has been outscored by Opponents by 3 points when Butler at home outscores their opponents by 18. No I know that the Bulldogs lost roll player forward Christian David and it hurts their depth but I think that it could actually help us more getting some value in the line being that he only played 1/3 of each game and they do have some other forwards ready to step up. Butler rolls with their ability to guard the 3 and I like them up to 7.5
Butler -6 – 3 star premium shared
Wisconsin vs Purdue -3 O/U 115
Wisconsin amazingly allows the same average points on the road than they do at home at 60. Purdue only allows 57 at home compared to 64 on the road.
Purdue’s home road scoring split is Huge at 76 at home and only 58 on the road. Wisconsin only shoots a terrible 26% from three on the road while Purdue shoots 36% at home. Both teams are not good at shooting. Purdue is a matchup nightmare for the Badgers because of how tall they are inside and the Badgers will need to score points from there. I like Purdue here up to -4 and lean to the under.
Purdue -3 – 1 star
Saturday’s games
Illinois vs Michigan -4 O/U 140
Michigan has been in free fall this month with only 1 win vs Purdue in overtime. They are not even close to the team that they were a few years back to due to serious churn and a new coach Juan Howard. Illinois is 4th in the nation in offensive rebounding and I think that make’s up for their ranking of 100th from three point land. Illinois outranks Michigan in both offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency. The problem that I have is that it is a let down spot for the Illini after winning at Purdue and more of a get the hell up spot for Michigan who just lost at home to Penn State.
Strong lean to Illinois +4
Baylor vs Florida +2 O/U 129
I really find this game interesting because this and the Kentucky vs Texas Tech game is going to tell us a lot about these conferences and basically which one is better. Baylor is a great team and maybe the Texas tech of last year. They went into Texas Tech and Kansas back to back and won. Their defense ranks 4th in the nation and they play at a slow pace. In saying all this, they do have a weakness and that is a lower FG% only ranking 183rd. Their offensive rebounding has helped them ranking 6th in the nation. Florida is another slower paced team who seems to turn it up when needed as we saw vs Auburn. They have a slightly better offense but certainly a worse defense. Florida is a little above average in pretty much everything they do. I can’t find a matchup advantage here for either team. One think that I have to credit Florida with this year is their ability to win at home. They still haven’t lost a game in the swamp and i think there is a chance that they can beat this Baylor team in a strange spot for them in the middle of conference play. You see, Baylor doesn’t need this win to win their conference and get a number 1 seed in the tournament and Florida might need this win to make the tournament.
Lean Florida
Kentucky vs Texas Tech -3 O/U 131
Now this may be the biggest game of the weekend. Kentucky is still that team who beats up on the wannabee’s and loses to the little sisters of the poor in Utah, South Carolina and Evansville. They have a very strong inside game but falter from three point land. Texas tech is a shell of themselves from last year losing to TCU a few days back but they have played very tough at home. I do not see a coaching advantage here because I really like Chris Beard and think he is a fantastic coach and obviously John Calipari is top 5 according to some. Now Kentucky does get fouled a ton ranking 8th in the nation in the free throw to field goal attempts ratio but I wonder how friendly the whistles will be in Lubbock and think that this may be more of an under type game.
Under 131 – 1 star premium shared
Washington state vs Utah -4 O/U 145
Now this is a matchup that I have been wanting to break down. Utah is a lower level Pac 12 team who is much better than people think. They like to score inside ranking 31st in 2 point FG percentage and they are able to score some points at home. This team actually has the largest home road splits out of any team scoring 91 points per game at home while only scoring 65 on the road. That’s a 26 point difference and the reason that they beat teams like BYU, Minnesota and Oregon State all at home. As a matter of fact, they only lost to Oregon by 5 at home earlier this month. For all the good that I said about Utah at home you can say the opposite for Washington State. The Cougars are a below average power 5 team in height and they can’t beat anybody on the road only averaging 67 points per game with 38% shooting from the floor. Utah has also already played a pretty hard schedule so far especially in the Pac 12 while Washington State’s schedule ranks 345th in the nation. Utah has the number 11 home court advantage according to Kenpom. Washington State is 1-4 ATS on the road. This is a needed win for Utah and I like them at least 2.5 stars up to 5 points.
We have a great show for you today! Professional Handicapper Alan Cashman @thecashmanwins from www.thecashmanwins.com comes on to break down some College Basketball for this weekend! First, Kiev gives out a free prop bet for Super Bowl Sunday, Then, Kiev and Alan discuss the lines on the Super Bowl and a few more Super Bowl plays! Next, Alan and Kiev get into College Basketball January 24th – 26th weekend games and plays.
NFL: #Superbowl #Sunday San Francisco vs Kansas City
College Basketball: Kentucky vs Texas Tech – Michigan State vs Minnesota and more!
#Sportsbetting #Gamblingtwitter #NCAA #NFL
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For only 17.99 a month become an ODDSBREAKER’S MEMBER and gain access to all premium picks BEFORE the line moves please visit theoddsbreakers.com or for $19.99 per month get all of that while adding access to the podcast early by becoming our Patreon at https://www.patreon.com/join/theoddsbreakers?
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I don’t know why people do not see it here with Illinois. The Illini are a fantastic team this year, and they will be dancing due to some huge wins vs Michigan, Purdue, Wisconsin and Rutgers. They also took Maryland to the wire in Baltimore. Purdue this year is a shell of themselves who have shown flashes beating Michigan State, Minnesota and Virginia at home, but they have some other bad losses including Texas, Nebraska and, yes you know it, Illinois by 25 points. Now people are going to look at this as a revenge game but I am not sure that Purdue can do that. They do not matchup well vs the Illini because Illinois also have some big guys down low like 7 footer Kofi Cockburn and 6’9 Giorgi Bezhanishvili. Illinois also has better guard play than Purdue and will most likely win that battle. Illinois has proven that they can win on the road when they beat Wisconsin a few weeks back. This spread is too large for this match-up and I like it at least all the way down to 3.
Illinois +6 – 2 star and sprinkle
Florida vs LSU -2 to -2.5 O/U 145
This is a spot play more than anything. LSU isn’t as good as they were last year but they have beaten some good teams in Arkansas, Mississippi State, Liberty and Tennessee. Their only home loss was a hiccup back in December vs East Tennessee State. They have a fantastic offense under Will Wake ranking 5th in efficiency and 5th in 2 point shots. Florida on the other hand is a pretty average power 5 team across the board. They have a better defense than LSU but their offensive efficiency ranks only 39th. The key thing for me is that this spread is below 3 points and it is a let down spot for Florida after beating Auburn at home. Auburn shot a horrid 25% that day and I think that any top 100 team would have beaten them shooting like that. Florida’s bad losses all come on the road this year and I think that they will let down vs the Tigers.
We have a quick show for you today! First, Kiev recaps the weekend including the NFL Conference Championship games and gives his initial thoughts on the Superbowl. Next, Kiev addresses a few listener questions. Then, Kiev gets into his Big 10 Rankings. Finally, Kiev give’s out a College Basketball Play for Tuesday 1/21/19!
NFL: Green bay vs San Francisco – Tennessee vs Kansas City
College Basketball: Louisville vs Duke – Wisconsin vs Penn State and more!
UFC 246 – McGregor vs Ceronne
#Sportsbetting #Gamblingtwitter #NCAA #NFL
Should you need a sports book please visit Jazzsports.ag and use the promo code, “oddsbreakers” to get a 100% sign up bonus! Terms and conditions apply.
For only 17.99 a month become an ODDSBREAKER’S MEMBER and gain access to all premium picks BEFORE the line moves please visit theoddsbreakers.com or for $19.99 per month get all of that while adding access to the podcast early by becoming our Patreon at https://www.patreon.com/join/theoddsbreakers?
Follow us on Twitter @theoddsbreakers @OBKiev #theoddsbreakers
This game can literally go two ways. Kansas City is obviously a passing powerhouse. They average a huge 283 passing yards per game and the only time that they really run the ball is to keep other teams honest. The fact that they have a pretty good defense now really helps this one-dimensional system. Many of Houston’s points came from messed up special teams and a few large plays. They were virtually shut down after the first quarter. In Saying that, Kansas City’s weakness is definitely against the run allowing 4.9 yards per attempt. This stat bodes very badly for the Chiefs facing a force like Derek Henry and the Tennessee Titans who average 5.1 yards per rushing attempt and rank 5th in rush DVOA efficiency. The second scary thing is that even though Tannahill threw less than 100 yards their last 2 playoff games and the team only averaged only 208 passing yards per game, they still have a huge 7.8 yards per attempt ranking top 4 and they rank 6th in passing DVOA. In saying all that I still lean to the Chiefs here and this is why. From a power ratings standpoint I have the Chiefs winning by 8 points due to this great home field advantage. Also, I do not see the Titans stopping the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes from scoring points here. We have seen the Titans work from a lead multiple times due to playing a bad and burned out Patriots offense and a bunch of mistakes made by the Ravens defense. The Titans were able to capitalize on playing some bad defenses down the stretch which helped pad Tannahill’s stats. Mahomes can also run the ball very well as we see every week which has giving them another dimension in the run game boosting their overall rushing DVOA to 14th in the league. Lastly, we haven’t seen Tennessee have to come from behind in a while or at least since playing the Saints at home and that did not work out too well for them. I think this game has a great live betting potential in the fact that Kansas City will not let off the gas if they score first and Tennessee can be quite one dimensional if they are behind. If Tennessee scores first, they can run a lot of play action and quite possibly put the Chiefs in a bad scenario if they start really stacking the box. I think large play on KC if they are up by 7 and the end of the first quarter at -10.5 ish and small play on Tennessee if they score first and up by 7 at +3.5 ish. The worst thing that could happen this game is Dee Ford lining up off-sides down the stretch like he did last year. I think that KC knows how close they were last year when they played the Patriots in this game and will end up with the W.
Lean KC -7 and Lean under 52
Prop: Patrick Mahomes has the most pass yards – 2 star premium shared (-140)
Green Bay vs San Francisco -7.5 O/U 45
Well that is a high spread for this total but I think it is pretty much telling you what I have been saying all year. Green Bay is much worse on the road then they are at home. We saw this from my last handicap when they went to San Francisco and lost 29. The 49ers have a net 2.5 yard per play advantage on the Packers and it is because they have a HUGE net negative net -1.1 yards per play on the road making them a -.3 yard per play total. Going by the splits, my Algorithm has this game Green Bay 16 and 49ers 25.5 which doesn’t exactly scream betting San Francisco until we learn more about the injury report. The more likely score at these numbers is Niners 28 and Packers 17 so I really can’t bet the under here. What I do know is that you may be able to get a nice team total here on San Francisco if that number is under 27 points. The 49ers are not coached by Pete Caroll so you can expect them to actually try and take away Devonte Adams with Richard Sherman and Safety Jimmie Ward over the top. Azeez Al-Shaair will be guarding Jimmy Graham and I expect him to be less effective. If the Packers expect to do well this game, they will have to go to their number 2 and 3 wide receivers such as Geronimo Allison and Marquez Valdez-Scantling and just hope that they can step up in a big game. The 49ers are a much healthier team on defense now and we saw what they did in the trenches vs Cousins and the Vikings offensive line. The Packers also give up 4.7 rushing yards per attempt so I expect the 49ers slew of RBs to have a great game here. The 49ers average 4.6 yards per rushing attempt and It certainly will be much better then the Seahawks rushing dismal performance. A key stat in my mind here is that Aaron Rodgers is 0-5 in playoff games when he has faced that same team during the regular season.
Lean San Francisco -7.5
Teaser – San Francisco -1 with Kansas City -1.5 – 4 star premium shared
Big 10 home teams are 33-7 straight up this year. Ironically, Wisconsin has 2 of those road wins themselves. We know that Sconnie is coming off of a huge win vs Maryland. The Badgers this year are about a top 28 or 30 team with some upside. The problem with them is that they are highly volatile. When they are hitting they can keep up with anybody and we have seen that vs Maryland, at Ohio State and at Indiana. When they are missing they are cold as ice losing to teams like New Mexico and Richmond. Wisconsin also doesn’t get much for second chance opportunities when they miss only ranking 246th in offensive rebounds. They have fixed their free throws ranking 17th in the nation this year compared to 332nd last year but they will need to draw more fouls to capitalize on this. Michigan State is coming off of a terrible loss at purdue where they got straight up blown out and it was their biggest loss to this team in program history only putting up 42 points to their 71. I can see a huge bounce back spot here for Sparty. Michigan State is 7-2 ATS as a home team this year an Wisconsin is 3-2 ATS on the road. The key thing for me is completely matchup related. Wisconsin needs to hit some 3s each game to be competitive while Michigan State ranks 19th in the nation at defending the 3. Michigan State also has some bigs down low that will cause major problems for Reuvers and Potter. Michigan State ranks 9th in defending the FG down low. Wisconsin plays a very slow pace as we know ranking 350th in the nation but that certainly has not helped them when they are down. Cassius Winston somehow just knows how to beat up Wisconsin and it shows every game. Wisconsin has no perimeter game and that is what it takes to take down Michigan State. The Badgers are in a let down spot and Sparty is in a get up spot. The fact that this line came out much higher than expected, I have to look at the under here. The under is 3-2 in Wisconsin away games and 4-3 in Michigan State true home games. Not a huge sample size but Wisconsin plays very slow
Under 131.5 – 1 star premium shared
Dayton vs St Louis +8 O/U 138
St Louis was a team that I backed in the AAC tournament last year and it really paid off. Unfortunately they lost some production but actually rank higher than they did last year on kenpom. Dayton is a beastly team who still hasn’t gotten top 10 respect in the market for some reason. They really have no weaknesses other than their defense ranking 41st on kenpom and that is why they lost in overtime both ironically to Kansas and Colorado both on neutral courts. What should be obvious about Dayton is that they will not play another team better than VCU who they just whipped at home against Dayton. Their only true away games were against some of the worst in their Atlantic 10 conference and now they actually have a half way decent road game vs St Louis. Now the Bilikens haven’t haven’t beaten anyone really either but at least they kept up Auburn only losing by 6 points and won the games that they were supposed to. Their weakness is definitely at the line shooting 56.2% ranking dead last in the whole NCAA. The good news is that they are not a favorite meaning that if Dayton has to hack them, you probably won your bet either way. St Louis ranks a little above average in offense at 101.3 on Kenpom but pretty close to Dayton’s rating on defense at 92.9. I have this game a 6.5 point spread with a total of 137. I think St Louis has a shot cause they can play some Defense. They just need to get hot at home. Should this spread get north of 10 I might be a player on St Louis but right now they are just a lean at 8.
Lean St Louis +8
Saturday:
Ohio State vs Penn State +1 O/U 137
I think we all remember when Penn State went into Ohio State and got beat them by 32 points at in an embarrassing fashion. I am sure the Nittany Lions remember it well and Ohio State probably does as well. I think that this may be a perfect spot for Penn State to enact some revenge on this team. Ohio State shot 57% from the field and 53% from three that game and doing the same on the road has proven to be an impossible feat in big 10 play. Since that game, Ohio State has went a dismal 1-4 in big 10 play and I still think that they are a little over rated at 10. Penn State is a team that is solid everywhere except the three point line. They tend to play pretty fast and have improved on defense. The Buckeye’s weakness has been turnovers at a 20.4% rate which ranks 239th in the NCAA. This won’t bode well for them on the road. Penn State on the other hand has a weakness from 3 point land but they really only need to match the Buckeye’s at that category at home to win this game. Ohio State only shoots 29% from three point land on the road. I gotta go Penn State with the home big 10 trend here anything under -2.
Penn State +1 – 2.5 star premium shared
Auburn vs Florida +1 O/U 139
I really wanted to play Florida here but now that Auburn is coming off an embarrassing loss to Alabama, it doesn’t bode quite as well. Auburn hasn’t faced a top 40 team all year and now they get to go to a Florida team that ranks 34 on Kenpom who hasn’t lost at home since November 10th to Florida State. Now Florida is a slow playing team who values defense and patience by waiting for an open shot. Statistically there a a very average Power 5 team with no big wins themselves and could use this one on their resume.
Auburn is great at FG percentage and rebounding the ball. Their weakness is that they shoot too may 3 point shots at 45% of all field goal attempts and if they get cold, it could really hurt them. They also are not great at shooting free throws ranking 312th at 65.1%. I think that Florida has a little bit more to lose here and will take them small. I have them winning 70-68
Florida +1 – 1 star premium shared
Purdue vs Maryland -3 O/U 122
Big 10 home team alert! Seeing a trend here? Purdue has really stepped it up the past few games taking Michigan to overtime and beating Michigan State at home and you can thank Travion Williams for his outstanding play. In Saying that, Purdue is still a very poor team in their guard play and could easily get cold again like that 38 points they put up at Illinois. The Boilermaker’s only rank 228th in effective FG%, are very average from 3 point land and rank 304th in free throws. Maryland on the other hand is desperate after 2 heartbreaking road losses at Iowa and Wisconsin and they will be looking for a big win. The Terps rank 7th in experience on kenpom and have been in a bounce back situation multiple times under coach Turgeon. Maryland’s depth isn’t great but Purdue plays at a very slow pace and fatigue shouldn’t be a huge issue. I think the Guard play of Anthony Cowan shines here and I am going to take the home team up to 4 points.
Maryland -3 – 2 star premium
Louisville vs Duke -8 O/U 136
Now this game is the best one of the weekend for me. This will tell us who will win the ACC regular season in my opinion. How pissed off is Duke right now after losing at Clemson this week? I would say FUMING. Louisville is now coming off of an overtime win in Pittsburgh and you wonder how much steam they have left to play defense on their 3rd road game in a row. Louisville is top 18 in both offensive and defensive efficiency while Duke is top 5 in both. Duke plays a faster pace game at 71.5 possessions per game and Louisville ranks 287th at 66 possessions. Both of these teams should be extremely motivated here and if it wasn’t for Duke’s bad loss, I might have a dog play here but instead I think I want to look at the total. The ACC is pretty bad this year with Virginia and North Carolina most likely not making the tournament and I think that Duke and Louisville. Because this conference is so weak, I think that the defensive stats are a little bit skewed and both teams should be able to put up points. Florida State put up 78 on Louisville and Michigan State and Clemson was able to put up over 78 points a piece. I don’t like the fact that Wendell Moore is out for Duke for the upcoming future and don’t like Louisville’s 3rd road game in a row so I will not play the side but I will pound the over at 136 and I like it all the way to 139.
Over 136 – 3 star premium shared
Clemson vs NC State -6.5 O/U 139
Clemson averages 43% from the field and shot a great 57% vs Duke at home just a few days ago. They are in their biggest let down spot of the year after beating UNC and Duke these last two games. NC State is in a revenge spot against them and their last game went to 151 points. NC State can’t play defense but they can play fast and score. I like this game NC State -6.5 and the over 139.
I like this game NC State -6.5 2 stars and the over 139 for 1 star
We have a great show for you today! First, Kiev talks (rants) about what happened before the College Football national championship and gives out his final top 5 power ratings. Next, Kiev talks about emotional betting and recaps the NFL. Then, Kiev Doug Upstone from Docssports.com comes on to break down the NFL conference championship week! Next, Doug and Kiev get into College Basketball 1/16-1/18 weekend games and plays. Finally, Cub Fan Danny is back to break down McGregor vs Ceronne and the UFC 246 fight card.
NFL: Green bay vs San Francisco – Tennessee vs Kansas City
College Basketball: Louisville vs Duke – Wisconsin vs Penn State and more!
UFC 246 – McGregor vs Ceronne
#Sportsbetting #Gamblingtwitter #NCAA #NFL
Should you need a sports book please visit mybookie.ag and use the promo code, “theoddsbreakers” to get a 100% sign up bonus! Terms and conditions apply.
For only 17.99 a month become an ODDSBREAKER’S MEMBER and gain access to all premium picks BEFORE the line moves please visit theoddsbreakers.com or for $19.99 per month get all of that while adding access to the podcast early by becoming our Patreon at https://www.patreon.com/join/theoddsbreakers?
Follow us on Twitter @theoddsbreakers @OBKiev #theoddsbreakers
San Diego State is for real this year mixing a great offense ranked 30th on Kenpom and defense ranked 16th. They beat the heck out of teams like Creighton, Iowa, and Utah State. Fresno State hasn’t done anything this year. They are 5-11 and rank 133rd on Kenpom. They have 0 wins over top 130 teams and now they will be without a key Forward in Nate Grimes. I really do not see how they can score points here even at home only ranking 182 in FG percentage. This should be more of a 10 point spread here in my opinion. I will take the short road favorite and lean to the under
San Diego State -6.5 – 2.5 star premium shared and lean under
VCU vs Dayton -8.5 O/U 138
This Handicap is really based on one player. Obi Toppin is the best player for Dayton and he rolled his ankle on Saturday. If he plays he will be limited. If it were up to me, I would sit him as a precaution. The spread only adjusted 1.5 points due to this injury. Toppin averages 20 points per game and the second scorer on Dayton averages just 13. Lots of D will be missed as well if he sits a lot this game. Lastly, VCU isn’t a bad team at all. Their only losses were mostly close games to top teams. They rank 51 on Kenpom and play some great defense. I will grab the value here hoping that Toppin sits.
