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Here are Analytic Projections for the CFP National Championship
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1pkfG057y18gr-w7pHMOvIUvW2lTdbk0Q9Bq3Eh8roF4/edit?usp=sharing
College Basketball Free Plays 1/10 – 1/12
Friday 1/10
Butler vs Providence +5 O/U 127.5
Butler has been a very under the radar team so far this year and they have shown flashes of elite 8 or even final 4 potential. Butler ranks 6th in the nation on Kenpom and their only loss was at Baylor this year due to a defense that ranks 5th in overall efficiency and ranks 3rd in opponent points per game. Providence is coming off of 2 road victories against Depaul and then a huge win in Marquette in overtime just on Tuesday and now they have the potential to grab sole possession of the lead in the Big East. One thing that I have noticed about this Friars team is that their pace is ranked pretty high at 70.1 due to playing some very fast teams such as Charlston, Marquette, Depaul and Georgetown but they have been winning those games on pure defense now ranking 44th in the nation. I think that their true pace should be around 67 or 68 possessions per game looking at the trend line. Butler plays a very slow pace themselves at 65.2 possessions per game. Due to some serious defense I like the under in this game. Providence should be a bit tired coming in here and I expect some low scoring from both teams.
Under 127.5 – 2 star premium shared play
Maryland vs Iowa +1 O/U 147
No Play. I don’t like the fact that Bohannon left this team on a medical redshirt for his hip. and I also don’t how guard CJ Fredrick is doubful. If he plays then strong lean to Iowa at this number.
Saturday 1/11
Louisville vs Notre Dame +3 O/U 132
There is no better time in my opinion to buy low on Louisville here. At one point they were a top 2 team in the country and had a little flat spot the last few games at Kentucky and home against Florida State. Notre Dame on the other hand may be without a starter in Rex Pflueger and will have to rely on their other guards in the rotation. Their best player is John Mooney who is 6’9 but Louisville has some bigs like Steven Enoch and Malik Williams who could stop him. Chris Mack has a very talented and experienced Cardinal team this year who returned 4 starters and now rank in the top 14 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. They do well in everything across the board and they capitalize by wearing other teams down playing at a slower pace and have a swarming defense ranking 14th in blocked shots per game. Louisville has played 2 true away games beating Miami by 13 the first game of the season and then taking a great Kentucky team into overtime a few weeks ago. They beat teams like Michigan and Pittsburgh while only losing to three Kenpom top 25 teams in Kentucky, Texas Tech and Florida State. Notre Dame hasn’t beaten any team better than Syracuse who ranks 71st on Kenpom and they have played some bad games to Boston College, North Carolina, NC State and Indiana. I like Louisville here to make a statement and stay the race in the ACC for the regular season championship.
Louisville -3 – 3 star premium play
Wisconsin vs Penn State -4 O/U 132
Both of these teams coming off tough losses. Penn State against Rutgers and Wisconsin vs Illinois at home even. Wisconsin is very unpredictable because they rank 160th in 3 point shooting percentage but they take a lot of them at 43.5% of their field goal shots. Neither team defends the 3 very well. Both teams are about equal in percentage stats. The major difference is that Wisconsin plays slow and Penn State plays very fast. If both teams shoot bad it is edge Wisconsin and if Both teams shoot well the edge goes to Penn State. No play at this number but I think that if Penn State controls the pace of this game the over will hit for sure. Strong lean to the over and it could be a play at under the 132.
Lean over 132
Nebraska vs Northwestern -5.5 O/U 144
The battle for the worst in the big 10! Well it may be an unfair battle because Northwestern is without 2 starters to injury in Boo Buie and they just lost Anthony Gaines for the whole season for a shoulder injury. Nebraska is a very young team coached by Fred Hoiberg after his little stint in the NBA. The Huskers play a fast pace and have beaten some good teams in Purdue and Iowa. The problem is that they are kind of in a let down spot here because they just beat Iowa at home. The big thing to me is that I, unlike Kenpom and Bart Torvik, have Nebraska higher rated than a healthy Northwestern team. The Wildcats haven’t beaten anybody in the top 100 and I don’t see how they can do it even at home vs a fiesty Nebraska team lead by Cam Mac. Nebraska ranks 130th in points per game while Northwestern ranks 287th. Nebraska also edges Northwestern in Field goal percentage, Three pointers and blocked shots. The only place that they lost out is free throw percentage and blocks. If it wasn’t for the let down spot I would have a large play on the Corn Huskers but for now I have to go 2 stars.
Nebrasksa +5.5 – 2 star premium shared and sprinkle
Sunday 1/12
Michigan vs Minnesota PK O/U 139
One thing that I have noticed in college basketball this year is that home teams have really been a good side so far. The Gophers fit that bill at 8-3 ATS their last 11 home games. The Gophers are coming off of a tough loss at Michigan State and now get to come back home and have 48 hours to regroup. Michigan is coming off of a double over time win and have the same amount of time to now have to go to Minnesota. Michigan is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games. This is the perfect spot to be on Minnesota here and the Big 10 will still keep winning at home. Minnesota doesn’t shoot quite as well as Michigan but they are able to rebound the ball much better ranking 48th in offensive rebounding while Michigan ranks 256th. I also like the fact that Isaiah Livers is out I’ll take the Gophers here at -2 or bettor
Minnesota PK – 1 star premium shared
Podcast 1 – 20 – NFL Wildcard Weekend Recap and Divisional Round Plays – College Football Championship Plays – College Basketball Weekend Plays – Sharp Movement – Sports Betting
Time to start 2020 off in style!!! We have a great show for you today! First, Kiev goes solo to recap the NFL Wildcard Round. Next, Kiev gets into the NFL Divisional playoffs with some thoughts and gives out some plays and some leans. Then, Kiev talks about his Big 10 rankings in college hoops. Who is at the top? Who is at the bottom? Next, we get into College Basketball 1/9 – 1/11 weekend games and plays! Finally, Kiev talks about the LSU vs Clemson game and gives out his play and a prop!
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College Basketball Tuesday 2-Pack – 1/7/20 – Sports Betting
Villanova vs Creighton -2 O/U 148.5
This game looks to me like a home road split type play. Villanova has only played 3 actual road games and they went 0-3 ATS and lost 2 of them outright. Creighton on the other hand at home has been solid beating teams like Marquette and Oklahoma both by double digits. The Bluejays are 5-4 ATS at home this year and will play well due to a conference game bounce back position after losing away to Butler. Both teams are pretty similiar by the numbers with Creighton ranking 16th in adjusted offensive efficiency while Villanova ranks 10th. Both defenses are pretty closely ranked as well. Creighton has the better 3 point shooting game ranking 60th to Villanova’s 135th and they also have a better FG% at 46.9% to Nova’s 45.6%. I like the fact that Creighton is at home here on the short favorite and will bet the home team here below the key number of 3.
Creighton -2 – 1.5 star premium shared play
Loyola Chicago vs Drake -1 O/U 132
These 2 teams start their conference play with nice records. Loyola is a slow playing team ranking 269th in pace who loves to get back on defense. It shows because they rank almost dead last in offensive rebounds and top 22 in defensive rebounds. Loyola isn’t the best scoring team only ranking 214th in points per game. Drake is a very average team all across the board ranking 193rd in offensive efficiency and 130th in defensive efficiency. They like to play a little bit slower as well ranking 214th in pace. Drake likes to pass the ball around a lot and they rank 16th in assist to FG. I think this will be a slower paced game and will take a small shot at the under 132.
Under 132 – 1 star premium shared
NFL Wildcard Weekend Free Plays
Tennessee vs New England -4.5 O/U 43.5
Ever hear of the term buy low sell high? Well I think stock market basic philosophy very much applies to this handicap. Who would have thought that New England would be priced at just 1.5 points better than Tennessee on a neutral field earlier this year. The Patriots may have coasted at the end of their season but they still have an elite defense and a great home field advantage. They sometimes treat the regular season as pre-season. The Titans on the other hand has impressed with the resurgence of Ryan Tannahill who is so hot right now but if you look at the last 3 games, they played the Texans third string once and lost by 10 to the Saints and 3 at home to the Texans. This is still a Belichick and Brady era and there is no way in hell that I am going to fade them the fist game in the playoffs at home. My power ratings have this a 6.5 point spread and I think the Patriots will be healthier next week. Their loss to the motivated dolphins and the Titans win against Houston’s 3rd string has affected this line. Taking the Value with the Pats.
New England -4.5 – 2 star premium shared
Minnesota vs New Orleans -8 O/U 49
There is an obvious issue with the line and total here. Most power ratings have this a 5 or 6 point spread so the question is how the heck is this line 8? Well the reason it is at 8 is the confidence that oddsmakers have in Kirk Cousins. Everyone knows that when Cousins plays big game that he tends to choke. This guy is 0-9 in Monday night football and will now once again have a stand alone nationally televised game. Cousins was so bad the other week vs the packers that I think half of the college QBs out there would have done better. Now he took a week off and has to go into New Orleans where they still are thinking revenge from what happened in the Minnesota Miracle if we are not counting last years referee debacle? I have to say that I do agree with the Cousins adjustment in the line here but I think what people don’t see is the total. Minnesota has the 7th ranked defense in the League and they will show up this game but New Orleans ain’t no slouch either and teams usually don’t score against them until garbage time. This is why I think this under is essentially a free roll. If Cousins is his bad self then this total is way too high and the Saints run the clock out in the 4th. If Cousin’s does well for some reason and covers this spread then the total is still a little high. New Orleans ranks second to last in seconds per play and Minnesota isn’t that fast either at about average. I am going to take the under and this might be the best play of the weekend!
Under 49 – 3 star premium shared
College Bowl Games January 2nd – 6th
Jan. 2
TicketSmarter Birmingham Bowl
Boston College vs. Cincinnati -7 O/U 55
Legion Field
Birmingham, Alabama
3 p.m., ESPN/ESPN App |
This spread opened up rather small for most power ratings at -4.5 and that is when I made a large play on the Bearcats. Boston College actually had a decent finish to their season beating Pittsburgh but that game was to become bowl eligible. This team hasn’t beaten anybody with a pulse and their best player AJ Dillon will be sitting out. The Eagles are 6-6 with a net yards per play at -.5. Cincinnati on the other hand does not have a good offense but they have a very solid defense and they have a .3 net yards per play. Cinci has done great by upsetting some big names such as Central Florida and UCLA. As long as they are not playing Memphis or Ohio state they looked good. I think that even at -7 this spread is a bit low but I wouldn’t take it at -7.5.
Cincinnati -7 – 1 star premium shared
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
Indiana vs. Tennessee -1.5 O/U 52.5
TIAA Bank Field
Jacksonville, Florida
7 p.m., ESPN/ESPN App |
I don’t see many power ratings with Tennessee better than Indiana but they certainly finished their season better. Indiana lost 2 of their last 3 games and Tennessee went on a 5-0 run. The difference here is that Indiana had to play Penn State and Michigan and Tennessee essentially played the worst in the whole SEC. Both of these teams are about equal in yards per play and on defense. Motivation should be about a tie here. I think I am going to go with the Big 10 here getting a little points. My power ratings have this game at Indiana -2.5. I also like how coach Tom Allen knows how to motivate this team and how hard they have played all year long.
Indiana +1.5 – 2 star premium shared
Jan. 3
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Ohio vs. Nevada +8 O/U 58.5
Albertsons Stadium
Boise, Idaho
3:30 p.m., ESPN/ESPN App |
More of a home game for Nevada but not a good reward for either team.Well I don’t know how excited these kids are to go to Boise Idaho for their bowl game but what I do know is that it is going to suck. Nevada is a net negative 1.2 yards per play while Ohio is a positive .8. That is a 2 yard per play difference here. Normally when I see this I jump at any spread below 10 points but the issue that I have is how Motivated will Ohio be for this game and the fact that Nevada actually beat some decent teams such as Missouri and San Diego State. I think that when looking at both of these teams, their defenses are pretty bad and they should be some points being scored here. Ohio averages 6.7 yards per play and 35 points per game. If Motivated, they should be able to get over 40 here. The question is will Nevada score over their average of 21.
Lean Ohio -8 and over 58.5
Jan. 4
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Southern Mississippi vs. Tulane -7 O/U 56.5
Amon G. Carter Stadium
Fort Worth, Texas
11:30 a.m., ESPN/ESPN App |
Southern Miss is just another one of those bowl teams that isn’t very good at all. They beat all of the easy teams and lost to the harder teams by a margin. Tulane ended their season horribly by losing 5 out of 6 games but at least those teams were great and all bowl teams. Tulane has a .2 net yard per play advantage and you wouldn’t think that is much but their schedule ranked 60th while Southern Miss’s schedule ranks 111th. My power ratings have this more of a 10 point spread. I like Tulane at the 7 for a little.
Tulane -7 – 1 star premium shared
Jan. 6
LendingTree Bowl
Louisiana vs. Miami (Ohio) +14 O/U 55.5
Ladd-Peebles Stadium
Mobile, Alabama
7:30 p.m., ESPN/ESPN App |
Well this is a pretty big spread for a group of 5 game especially when the dog has won theri conference championship game. Louisiana has a fantastic rushing offense averaging 6.4 yards per rush. They also have a pretty good defense allowing only 20 points per game and 5.5 yards per play. Miami has won their conference based on defense but they have a net negative yards per play at -.2 while Lousiana has a monster 2.5 net yards per play. I think that Miami has had the harder schedule here and I am not exactly rushing to the window due to this. The Mac is doing well in bowl games. Louisiana should have a slight home field advantage here being only a 3.5 hour drive but My power ratings have this at 12 so there is no play for me but a slight lean to Louisiana
Lean Louisiana Laffayette -14
Podcast 78 – 19 – CFB Playoffs Recap & NFL Wildcard Weekend Plays – College Football Bowls January 2nd – 6th Plays – Sharp Movement – Sports Betting
Happy New Years to all of you listeners and we hope you have a prosperous 2020! We have a great show for you today! First, Kiev goes solo to recap the college football playoffs. What was the true errors in officiating during these games? Why does it happen? Is there a conflict of interest? Next, Kiev does a recap for NFL week 17. Does the Packers have a shot at making the superbowl? Then, we talk about college football bowls from January 2nd – 6th and give out some plays. Next, Kiev gets into the NFL Wildcard weekend playoffs and gives out some plays and some leans. Finally, Kiev talks about the LSU vs Clemson line and gets into sharp line movement.
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#Sportsbetting #Gamblingtwitter #NCAA #NFL
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College Bowl Games December 30th – January 1st Plays
Dec. 30
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Western Kentucky vs. Western Michigan +3.5 O/U 53
Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Dallas
12:30 p.m., ESPN/ESPN App |
This spread is flat out wrong. WROOOOOOOOOONG. I am sick of this fade the Mac shenanigans. How has that worked out for ya so far? The Mac is 3-1 ATS so far in bowl games. Western Michigan is a solid team. They have lots of Juniors and Seniors and play great offense and decent defense. This team is a net .6 yards per play and have beaten the best teams in their conference including Ohio, Miami OH, Central Michigan and Ball State. They should have been in the title game if it wasn’t for that last game hiccup vs NIU. Western Kentucky has a defense and allows only 20 points per game but their offense is almost as bad as San Diego State’s and they were only able to put up a net .3 yards per play vs a very easy schedule. This game is really a no-brainer play for me. If you don’t believe me check Sagarin and Team Rankings.
Western Michigan +3.5 – 2.5 star premium shared play and .5 star Sprinkle
Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl
Mississippi State vs. Louisville +4 O/U 63
Nissan Stadium
Nashville, Tennessee
4 p.m., ESPN/ESPN App |
This is more of a home game for Louisville with only a 2 hour drive away. This team was actually half way decent this year beating teams like Wake Forest, Virginia and Syracuse. Their huge issue was their defense allowing 6.4 yards per play making it only a net positive .25 for the year. Mississippi State was also quite average beating up on the easy teams and losing bad against the hard teams. They were a net negative .1 yards per play because of that but definitely had a harder schedule than Louisville in the SEC West. I like Louisville’s home field advantage here but what i don’t like his how they finished the season and they way that they lost to Kentucky. Mississippi State beat Kentucky this year and they both have similar styles winning with defense and pounding the ball. Louisville should not be able to stop the run here at all but I can’t trust Mississippi State laying 4.
Lean Mississippi State -4 and lean under 63
Redbox Bowl
California vs. Illinois +6.5 O/U 43
Levi’s Stadium
Santa Clara, California
4 p.m., FOX
This should be called the negative yards per play bowl. Clearly a home game for Cal here. There are 2 other key things here. First, Chase Garbers is back for Cal after about 6 weeks off for injury and they won their last 2 games with him vs Stanford and UCLA and Illinois finished out the season badly losing to Northwestern at home. Even after all of that, I think this spread is a tad bit too high. Illinois had some huge wins this year against Wisconsin and at Michigan State and they have some talent on that team. Everyone is looking at Illinois bad yards per play at a net -.7 but what people don’t see is that it was much worse half way through the season and had only improved. Illinois also had a hard schedule playing 4 ranked teams. Being that Illinois hasn’t been to a bowl game in a coon’s age, I think that they may have some fans show up for this game. This is too many points for a Cal team vs any decent team. Low total as well.
Illinois +6.5 2 star premium shared and sprinkle and lean under 43
Capital One Orange Bowl
Florida vs. Virginia +14.5 O/U 54.5
Hard Rock Stadium
Miami Gardens, Florida
8 p.m., ESPN/ESPN App |
I do not remember too many spreads this large in the Orange bowl. I am going to give Florida a 1 point home field advantage here but this only brings by my line to -10.5. Why am I not betting Virginia here? Its fear. Utter Fear of the way Virginia got smoked vs Clemson and the way Florida smoked Michigan in their bowl game last year. Virginia has a piss poor .1 net yards per play on the season while Florida has a 1.6 and played a harder schedule. Virginia might be the second most fraudulent 9-3 team close to San Diego State. I like coach Bronco Mendenhall and all he has done but he isn’t no Dan Mullen and Florida will be fired up and ready to go this game with extra prep time to stop Bryce Perkins.
Lean Florida -14.5
Dec. 31
Belk Bowl
Virginia Tech vs. Kentucky +2.5 O/U 46.5
Bank of America Stadium
Charlotte, North Carolina
Noon, ESPN/ESPN App |
This one is more of a home game for Va Tech with a 2.5 hour drive. Va Tech was the most improved team this year this bowl season who started out 2-2 with losses to Boston College and Duke only to rip through teams like North Carolina, Wake Forest and Pittsburgh. They are a positive .4 yards per play with a balanced offense and solid defense allowing 24 points per game. Kentucky on the other side is very one dimensional. They can run the ball very well averaging 6.4 yards per rush. Kentucky has only passed for 1400 yards this year and if they get down in a game they have trouble playing catchup. One thing Kentucky does have is a yards per play advantage at 1 yard per play making it a net .6. My Power ratings have Virginia Tech by 3 on a neutral field. I kinda like Virginia Tech here in this spot but I do not trust them due to their easy schedule. I think the total may be a better look for this game. Kentucky ranks 119th in pace of play while Virginia Tech ranks an average 60th. Techs D holds opponents to 24 points per game and Kentucky’s D holds opponents to 18. I’ll take a shot at the under but will wait for a little and see what the weather looks like.
Under 46.5 – 1 star
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Florida State vs. Arizona State -4.5 O/U 54.5
Sun Bowl Stadium
El Paso, Texas
2 p.m., CBS
You play to win the game! I am confident that ASU players are thinking that coming into this game. What I am not confident about is Florida State after having to buy out another coach. I wonder how it must feel to be a player there. Yards per play are pretty equal with these teams and I have ASU about a 1.25 advantage in the power ratings. One thing that I do like for next year’s Seminols team is who Florida State hired for their new coach in Mike Norvell. This guy was a stud over at Memphis and if those teams had a defense, it may have been them getting the hype over UCF. Arizona State had a strong motivated finish to the season beating teams like Oregon and rival Arizona while Florida State did well under interim coach Haggins but lost bad their final game vs Florida. This seems to be a no brainer ASU bet due to this situation right? Maybe wrong. This happened before with Haggins at Florida State and the team blew out Louisiana Monroe to make a bowl game and then blew out Southern Miss in that bowl game. This could be another big effort. Too much variance for me.
Smallest lean to ASU -4.5
AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Navy vs. Kansas State +2.5 O/U 52
Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium
Memphis, Tennessee
3:45 p.m., ESPN/ESPN App |
I hope that Chris Klieman watched the Army Navy game because there was just one person besides the trenches who knew how to play football and that person was Navy QB Malcomb Perry. You have to appreciate what first year wildcat coach Klieman did for this program. beating playoff team Oklahoma and making it to a bowl game. The formula to stop Navy is to contain Malcomb Perry and force him to throw the ball. Being at 54% on the year should tell you something. It is a good thing that Kansas State has a few football players which is more than I can say for Army’s defense. The bad news for Kansas State is that they stink against the run allowing 5 yards per rush and Navy is an option team that does throw the ball for trickery and when it actually completes it turns into a big play. Navy has a solid defense but when they stepped up in class against Notre Dame and Memphis they really allowed a lot of points and a lot of yards. Because of this I look to the over. Kansas State’s offense in their strength averaging 31 points per game to Navy’s 38. Kansas State’s defense also allows 6.1 yards per play. I really don’t think that these team will be able to stop each other here and even tho Navy is an option team, i think this total might be a bit low.
Lean over 52
NOVA Home Loans Arizona Bowl
Wyoming vs. Georgia State +7 O/U 49
Arizona Stadium
Tucson, Arizona
4:30, CBS Sports Network |
Now this is an interesting game due to a couple of things. First you have a smash mouth Wyoming team with a good defense playing an air it out, high paced Georgia State team. The Panthers play fast and the pokes play slow. No need to get into yards per play here within these 2 different styles and different conferences but what I do know is that Georgia State plays in a dome and this game will be outdoors in Tucson Arizona during the colder season. The real key here is that QB and second leading rusher for Georgia State Dan Ellington is playing on a torn ACL and with Wyoming’s swarming defense, I think that could spell some serious trouble for Georgia State. He has been playing on it for 4 games, and since then, the Panthers are 1-3 with their only win vs a bad South Alabama team. I also think it is a very dumb decision to play on a knee like that. Georgia State is pretty bad against the run allowing 5.3 yards per carry. Wyoming averages 4.7. My power ratings have this at -7 on a neutral field but the Injury to Ellington and the fact that this is played on the west coast makes me half to play Wyoming
Wyoming -7 – 2.5 star premium shared
Valero Alamo Bowl
Utah vs. Texas
Alamodome
San Antonio
7:30 p.m., ESPN/ESPN App |
This is much more of a home game for Texas here. Will Utah have any motivation after blowing their chances at the playoff? Leaning no here but that is never guaranteed. We saw Texas beat Georgia last year and Utah is in that similar situation. What I think it can be assumed is that you are going to see Sam Ellinger play another amazing bowl game like he did vs Georgia last year. That is… If he has any players to throw the ball too. Both of his top WRs are questionable this game and there also may be some players sitting out for the draft. There are cluster injuries on defense for the longhorns and I am not sure that they can stop anybody if many of these guys have to miss this game. If you look at the Longhorns on a yards per play basis, they were dead even. Utah was a positive 2.3. Texas had the harder schedule for sure but it is hard to quantify the differences between the big 12 and the Pac 12. I feel both conferences are similar. have Utah as an 8.25 favorite here in my power ratings but I can’t make any play until we find out who is playing for Texas.
Slightest lean to Utah
Jan. 1, 2020
Vrbo Citrus Bowl
Michigan vs. Alabama -7 O/U 58.5
Camping World Stadium
Orlando, Florida
1 p.m., ABC/ESPN App |
Alabama may not be motivated here but Michigan should be very motivated due to their bowl performance from last year. Alabama is in Georgia’s position from last year missing the playoffs and it is difficult to see if they will get up for this game. Believe it or not, Michigan has no bowl sit outs this year. Alabama will be without a few players. Outside linebacker Terrell Lewis and cornerback Trevon Diggs have both decided to not play in the game; both of these players were absent from practice on Monday. In addition, freshman defensive tackle DJ Dale is ‘doubtful’ for the game due to the knee injury he sustained late in the regular season; Saban says Dale has not been responded well to treatment and medications. What we do know is that some of the Bamma studs Najee Harris, Jerry Jeudy, Henry Ruggs and QB Mack Jones are all going to play this game and we should see some scoring here. Even though there are some people missing here, Bama is still 4th in my power ratings and Michigan is 10th making a 7 point spread. Take away 1.5 points for Bama’s injuries and players sitting out and I have the game -5.5. I am nervous to bet a Jim Harbaugh team so I am going to wait and see if a 7.5 pops for now. Alabama also has a net 3 yards per play over Harbaugh’s 1.4 although Michigan certainly had the much harder schedule this year. I think the better play may be the over here. We have seen Bama score 40-50 points against some of the best defenses in football. You have to think that Michigan will put up some points as well against a battered Bama defense.
Weather permitting – Over 58 – 2 star premium shared
Outback Bowl
Minnesota vs. Auburn -7 O/U 53 Raymond James Stadium
Tampa, Florida
1 p.m., ESPN/ESPN App |
Auburn Defensive tackle Nick Coe and Minnesota Linebacker Kamal Martin will sit out this game for the NFL Draft. Both teams should be motivated to win this game. Maybe even a little more motivation for the Gophers for having such a great season and getting to play such a great team. According to my power ratings, this spread should be around 4.5 but some of the other ones that I trust have it larger than 7. Both of these teams are at 1.2 net yards per play Auburn had the much tougher schedule for sure here playing Alabama, LSU, Florida, Georgia and Oregon while Minnesota avoided Ohio State, Michigan and Michigan State this year. I want to recommend betting Minnesota at this number but I can’t forget what Auburn did to poor Purdue last year when they beat them 5000 to 0 or something like that and that and the Gophers schedule makes me lean to Auburn. I think Minnesota will put up some points against this team but I also think Minnesota should give up at least 32 to points here against a running QB like Bo Nix.
Lean Auburn and lean over 53.5
Rose Bowl Game presented by Northwestern Mutual
Oregon vs. Wisconsin -3 O/U 51
Rose Bowl
Pasadena, California
5 p.m., ESPN/ESPN App |
Well I must stay that this looks like the 3rd best game in all of college football bowl games behind Ohio State/Clemson and the National Championship. These 2 teams are very good and both deserve to be in the top 10 in my opinion. Wisconsin blew their last game against a strong Ohio State team while Oregon took care of business in winning the Pac 12. Oregon has a slight yards per play edge at .1 net over Wisconsin but the Badgers had a harder schedule playing 5 top 25 teams over Oregon’s 3. Both of these teams are top 12 in sacks per game. Oregon has the passing edge here for sure but Wisconsin has the running edge. My power ratings has the game Wisconsin by 2.25 points so I am not far off of the spread here. I know I sound like a broken record here when I say that Wisconsin needs a great game from Jack Coan to win this one but the truth is that anyone playing a top 15 team needs good QB play in order to win. Just running the ball isn’t good enough like it used to be years ago. This game may be won by the team who applies the most pressure on defense to the quarterback. Wisconsin can not let Justin Herbert pick them apart like he did against Utah. Oregon is another team who likes to get the ball to their players in space so Wisconsin needs to be ready. Being that I am so close to the spread here I would like to take a look at the first half here. Oregon is a very good team and they have a solid defense but they haven’t seen a team quite like Wisconsin with their huge offensive line and counter rushing plays. They can do some misdirection rushing plays and Jet sweeps that may catch Oregon off guard. Deception will be key. Coan needs to draw in Safety Brady breeze with some pump fakes in order to get over the top. They seem to play action well to their tight end Ferguson and Coan has shown some ability to hit Quintez Cephus in the quick slants. Wisconsin seems to start out great every single game as we saw both games vs Ohio State as well as Michigan, Michigan State and most of the rest. I think Wisconsin has a chance to Jump Oregon here and I may look to the first half. I also think this total is a bit low for a Rose Bowl so I may have to look to the over weather permitting.
Wisconsin 1st half -2 – 2 star premium shared and lean over 51
Allstate Sugar Bowl
Georgia vs. Baylor +6 O/U 41
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
New Orleans
8:45 p.m., ESPN/ESPN App |
This should be called the salt bowl because both of these teams should be a bit salty for blowing their playoff chances last game. Home game for Georgia but no real reward for the season. They just played here and lost bad to LSU. Players may sit out here. We do know that their offensive Tackle Andrew Thomas will sit this one for the draft. Georgia has also been depleted in their receiving department losing Lawrence Cager and Dominick Blaylock. Georgia is about a net 1.9 yards per play this season with a hard schedule and Baylor had a very easy schedule with their only losses to Oklahoma. The Bears had a 1.6 net yards per play. I have Georgia a 9.5 on a neutral field but adjusting for motivation and their injuries I have to down grade this spread to 6.5. We also do not know who will be quarterbacking for Baylor being that Charlie Brewer had a concussion in the Big 12 championship and we do not know how serious it is. I do think he plays but will Baylor be motivated here after having their dreams crushed as well?
No Play but a very slight lean to Georgia
Clemson vs Ohio State
PLAYSTATION FIESTA BOWL
COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF SEMIFINAL
Clemson vs Ohio State
8:00 PM ET, Saturday, December 28, 2019
State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Arizona
PICK: Clemson -130/Medium
For most of the College Football season, I was expecting at some point to have a play on Ohio State to win it all. I was in Bloomington early in the season when they trounced Indiana. The two teams looked to be from different planets as far as talent. Ohio State looked unstoppable this season at times. However, I think they have played their best football already.
This is a bad time for anyone to have to play Clemson. After a 4-0 start, the Tigers had a scare at North Carolina, escaping with a 21-20 win, posting their lowest yardage total for the season at 331. Since that game, Clemson has gone 8-0 and had at least 516 yards of total offense in all 8 of those wins. They have posted over 600 yards 3 times in that span, including 619 vs Virginia in a 62-17 rout in the ACC Championship game. Clemson scored 50 or more points in 5 of their final 6 games. Since the North Carolina game, Clemson is +15 in net turnovers. Ohio finished in the negative for net turnovers in 2 of their final 3 games.
Clemson’s defense, #1 in the nation, only allowed opponents 200 or more passing yards twice all season. They allowed Virginia 283 pass yards on 48 attempts, many in garbage time playing from behind all day. That was also the only game that Clemson allowed a team 300 yards all season. Ohio State’s defense allowed 396 to Michigan and 432 to Wisconsin in the final 2 games of the season.
Clemson is running for 6.5 ypc this season. Etienne finished with 8.2 ypc on 182 carries. Clemson is averaging 5.3 ypc in the last 4 games while Ohio St is averaging 4.4. Ohio State had their lowest rushing production of the season in the final game vs Wisconsin, 172 yds and 3.7 ypc
The Clemson defense allows opponents 3.0 ypc. They shut down a Boston College run game who averaged 256 yards rush yards per game this season and held them to 97 yds on 44 carries. Ohio State allowed 200 yards rushing in the final game against Wisconsin. They shut Wisconsin down in the first meeting holding the Badgers to 83 yds and 2.2 ypc when Ohio St was playing their best football of the season.
OSU QB Justin Fields is nursing a sprained MCL. He hurt it against Penn St in the third to last game of the year. He had his 2 worst completion % games of the season after that at Michigan and vs Wisconsin. He had only 26 combined rushing yards in those last 2 games after compiling over 400 rushing yards for the season prior to the sprained MCL. Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence has had 6 straight games of 72% completions or better. He has 20 TD/0 Int in that span.
Fields completed 62.2% of passes vs Top 25 teams while Lawrence completed over 70 % of his passes vs Top 25 competition. Fields has an advantage in road game statistics but looking back at the game logs for Lawrence, this stems from the early season slow start for the Clemson offense. He has been dominant later in the season.
Wisconsin and Michigan may have been better teams than what Clemson played at the end of the season but I think Clemson would have dominated both teams. Ohio St was really sluggish to start vs Wisconsin.
I feel all of this points toward Clemson in this game. Earlier this season, this would not have been the case but I think Clemson is playing better on both sides of the ball than any other team right now and I believe they are the team to back in this game.
NFL Week 17 Free Plays
Green Bay vs Detroit -12.5 O/U 43
This is a pretty large spread for such a low total against a decent Lions offense. The Packers will be motivated here for sure to try and keep their first round bye and possible home field throughout playoffs but they won’t be in blowout mode and will also try and keep people healthy. Detroit hasn’t given up on the season and they also feel disrespected from what happened last game vs the Packers in Lambeau. I can see Detroit putting out one final effort here being that Matt Patricia is going to be there next year as well. My power ratings have this a 4 point spread and if you adjust it for no Matt Stafford, I have it at 7 but certainly not 12. Looking a yards per play, the Packers are a terrible -1.2 on the road while the Lions are -.8 at home. The Packers defensive weakness shows against the run allowing 4.5 yards per attempt. The Lions get Kerryon Johnson back and will try and pound the ball more due to their QB deficiencies with 3rd string David Blough. Take the Lions
Detroit +12 – 3 star premium shared play
NY Jets vs Buffalo Bills -1 O/U 36
Now you can tell that there is something very fishy about this spread. Real power ratings have the Bills a 9-10 point favorite at home vs the Jets but the reason this spread is sso low is because Buffalo is LOCKED IN to the 5th seed and can’t change that. They do not need to play their starters long and if they do then the coach should be fired. I personally wouldn’t play my starters at all but McDermott said he was going to. Now this isn’t the situation with the Texans where they can improve their seeding and take a division rival out of the playoffs. The Jets are out of the playoffs but coach Adam Gase will be there next year and this team will want to leave this disappointing season on a high note. This spread has not been adjusted quite enough here and I can see Josh Allen and most of the starters only playing for 1 quarter vs the Jets. This is preseason game 2 for the Bills and a big game for the Jets.
NY Jets +1 – 4 star premium shared play
Philadelphia vs NY Giants
The Eagles will be motivated to win this game and win the NFC East division but NY will also want to play spoiler here and I think that they jump at this opportunity. How good does it feel to take a rival out the playoffs? They are also riding a scoring high vs the Redskins. This team is more healthy than before and will also want to leave the season off on a high note for coach Shurmur. The Giants are pretty healthy here and Daniel Jones will be running and gunning all day throwing the ball to Golden Tate and Sterling Shepard. The Eagles are actually in somewhat of a let down spot here after beating the Cowboys and are in danger of taking this Giants team too lightly. The Eagles are once again very very banged up with Zach Ertz questionable having a rib injury and Nelson Agholor questionable as well. Even if they play they won’t be 100%. They also have big defensive talent like Fletcher Cox, Jalen Mills and Derek Barnett banged up. Ronald Darby is now on the IR. Pure Power ratings have this game a 2 point spread rather than a 4.5. Giants may be sneaky here.
NY Giants +4.5 – 1.5 star premium play
