We have a MASSIVE show for you today! Joshua Nunn @StepOnADuck1 is back to break down more pigskin! First, Kiev talks about Sports Betting in Illinois. What now? Next, he gets into the US Open with a few thoughts. Then, we break down the AFC East & AFC West to finish out our NFL previews. Which teams will come out on top!? After that, Josh comes on and the guys get right into the group of five conferences. We start with the AAC and go all the way to the Sun Belt. Plenty of Free Plays and big futures! Kiev also throws out a UFC free play at the end of the show. Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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With $1,000,000 in bonus bets on the line, DraftKings is rolling out its “King of the Course” promo for the 2025 U.S. Open at Oakmont. Here’s how it works — and more importantly, how you should approach it from a betting strategy standpoint.
How the Promo Works
Place an outright bet on any golfer to win the U.S. Open. If your selection records the most birdies or better in Rounds 3 and 4 combined, you’ll earn a share of a $1,000,000 bonus bet pool — regardless of whether they win.
That’s right: your pick doesn’t need to win the tournament; they just need to rack up the most red numbers on the weekend.
Step 1: Pick a Player Who Will Make the Cut
This sounds obvious, but it’s the foundation of the entire promo. If your golfer misses the cut, they won’t be playing Rounds 3 and 4, and your entry is dead.
U.S. Open Cut Rules: Top 60 and ties after 36 holes. That’s a tighter cut line than most PGA Tour events (usually Top 65 and ties), making it even more crucial to target consistent players.
Step 2: Understand Oakmont’s Scoring Landscape
Oakmont is one of the toughest tests in golf, but even the most difficult venues have scoring windows. Let’s break down where birdies are most likely to come from this weekend.
Hole 16 (231 yards): Rank 15 Insight: Birdies are rare on long Par 3s. Hole 3 is your best shot.
Par 4s
Hole 17 (313 yards): Rank 1
Hole 2 (340 yards): Rank 5
Hole 14 (358 yards): Rank 6
Hole 11 (370 yards): Rank 8
Hole 5 (382 yards): Rank 9 Target stat: Par 4 scoring from 300 to 400 yards
Step 3: Key Stats to Target
To maximize your odds of winning, the key is finding players who are aggressive, can survive Oakmont’s difficulty, and go low when the putter heats up.
Core Stats
Strokes Gained: Approach
Birdies or Better Gained (on difficult scoring conditions)
Driving Distance (Oakmont stretches over 7,300 yards)
Strokes Gained: Putting (on Poa annua greens with lightning speed)
Round 3 and Round 4 Birdies or Better %
For anyone with the DK King of the Course promo, here is BoB% in R3+R4
Focus on players who can take full advantage of the few scoring holes at Oakmont.
Key stat buckets:
Par 3 scoring from 175–200 yards
Par 4 scoring from 300–400 yards
Proximity from 75–100 yards
Par 5 scoring from 600–650 yards
Ideal profile: Consistent ball-strikers with elite wedges and potential for hot putting rounds.
Strategy 2 — Separate on the Hard Holes
Find players who can steal birdies where most of the field is making pars or worse.
Key stat buckets:
Par 3 scoring from 225+ yards
Par 4 scoring from 450–500 yards
Proximity from 150–175 yards
Par 5 scoring from 600–650 yards
Ideal profile: High-ceiling players with volatility, distance, and the ability to post a 65 out of nowhere.
Other Factors to Consider
Spike Putting Rounds
If you have access to data on streaky putting performances, use it. You only need one or two hot putting rounds — especially on Saturday or Sunday — to win this contest.
Weather Edge
Monitor weekend tee times and forecasts. Morning waves with softer greens or less wind could create ideal birdie chances.
Betting Strategy: Chasing Value
At the top of the odds board, you’ll find the usual suspects — Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and Bryson DeChambeau. They’ll be popular picks in this contest, and rightfully so. These are elite players with a strong chance of posting the most birdies or better over the weekend.
But here’s the catch — the more people who bet on the same player, the smaller the share of that $1,000,000 prize pool you’ll end up with. That’s why we’re taking a different approach.
If your goal is simply to maximize your chances of winning something, then Scheffler or Rory might make sense. But if you’re looking to extract real value, the play is to dig a little deeper down the board.
Let’s reframe how we think about this contest: your $5 outright bet isn’t just a wager for a player to win the US Open — it’s a ticket into a side competition. And in that competition, the only thing that matters is birdies or better in Rounds 3 and 4.
So when analyzing the board, I’m not only asking, “Can this guy win the US Open?” I’m more interested in “Can he make enough birdies on the weekend to top the leaderboard in this contest?”
A player might blow up with a triple bogey and fall out of contention for the tournament, but that doesn’t matter here. We don’t care about bogeys. We care about raw scoring upside — birdie-making potential when it counts most.
The key is identifying players with:
High birdie or better rates
A strong chance to make the cut
Low ownership in this specific contest
That’s where the edge lies. We’re not trying to be right about who wins the US Open — we’re trying to be right about who racks up birdies on Saturday and Sunday when most of the field has gone home.
Sam Burns enters the U.S. Open off a frustrating playoff loss to Ryan Fox at the RBC Canadian Open, where his putter proved both a weapon and a weakness. After a stellar final round performance, Burns missed a short putt to win on the first playoff hole, then three-putted on the fourth, ultimately costing him the tournament.
Despite the disappointment, Burns has been playing consistently well. He’s finished T20 or better in five of his last six starts and is showing signs of a positive trend with his iron play. After going ten straight events without gaining strokes on approach, Burns has now done so in three consecutive starts—an encouraging sign as we head into a demanding week at Oakmont.
The strength of Burns’ game remains his putting, and when he finds a groove with the flat stick, he can rack up birdies in a hurry. He also has the distance off the tee to give himself manageable approaches on the longer holes. At the PGA Championship, Burns finished just four birdies off the top mark despite losing strokes on approach. If his recent improvements with the irons continue, he’s a legitimate contender in this DraftKings contest.
On top of that, Burns ranks 10th in Round 4 scoring average on the PGA TOUR this season—a valuable stat considering this competition hinges on performance over the weekend.
Sepp Straka
Sepp Straka hasn’t yet found his form in the majors this year, but outside of those high-profile starts, he’s quietly put together a stellar 2025 season. With two wins under his belt — at The American Express and the Truist Championship (hosted at Philadelphia Cricket Club) — Straka has shown he can contend and close.
He enters this week off a strong third-place finish at the Memorial, giving him a boost of momentum as he heads into Oakmont. Straka’s strength lies in his elite iron play. He may not overpower courses with distance, but he’s one of the most accurate drivers on TOUR — a key trait for positioning on Oakmont’s narrow and demanding fairways.
While his putter was inconsistent earlier in the year, he spiked in both of his wins, gaining +1.93 strokes putting at The American Express and +2.33 at the Truist. More importantly, he’s gained strokes on the greens in four consecutive events, a trend he hadn’t sustained since 2023. If the putter continues to cooperate, he’ll have plenty of birdie looks heading into the weekend.
What really stands out for this DraftKings promo is his weekend scoring ability. Straka ranks 5th in Round 3 scoring average and 18th in Round 4 scoring average on the PGA TOUR this season — exactly what we’re targeting for this contest. If he makes the cut, his birdie-making potential on Saturday and Sunday could easily put him in contention for the top prize.
Harris English
Harris English has quietly been one of the most consistent birdie-makers in major championships this season. At the Masters, he recorded 18 birdies, tying for 4th in the field. He matched that total at the PGA Championship at Quail Hollow, where his 18 birdies were tied for 2nd. That kind of scoring upside is exactly what you’re looking for in a contest focused on weekend birdie totals.
He arrives at Oakmont in solid form, with three top-15 finishes in his last four starts, including a win earlier this year at the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines — a long, demanding setup that shares some characteristics with Oakmont in terms of difficulty and shot-making requirements.
English’s game has been steady this season, with most of the week-to-week volatility coming on the greens. That said, when the putter clicks, he tends to contend. In the last five events where he’s gained strokes putting, he hasn’t finished worse than T18. That kind of spike potential makes him a strong candidate for this unique DraftKings contest. He may not need to contend for the trophy — just catch fire with the putter over the weekend.
Shines on difficult golf courses tee to green. Top 20 in BoB% on difficult courses last 36 rounds.
Sam Burns
Can get hot with the putter at any moment and drop them in from anywhere. Driver has been fantastic as of late.
Tommy Fleetwood
Was born for the US Open. This isn’t a market that requires him to win the golf tournament and has a ton of history of weekend surges at major championships.
Final Thoughts
This DraftKings promo is a fun and strategic twist on outright betting. It rewards bold picks and sharp weekend analysis. Focus on players with scoring upside, weekend reliability, and the firepower to light up Oakmont’s few scoring windows. If they get hot at the right time, you could take home a share of the million.
The AFC North in 2024 was not the best division in football, it wasn’t the worst either. I would say that it was the weirdest. The Browns were supposed to be a playoff team, yet they instead threw us a curve and competed quite well for the worst team in NFL football. The Ravens lost some games that they shouldn’t have against the Chiefs and then the Raiders, then they rip off five wins in a row against teams like Buffalo, Cincinnati, Washington, and Tampa Bay, just to lose to the Browns on Week eight. The Steelers had the hardest projected schedule that turned out to be not so bad at all, and the Bengals had chose to not care so much about defense. The AFC North plays the AFC East and the NFC North, which I would call medium hard. I feel that there is a big step up from a 3rd place schedule to a 4th place schedule. Let’s see how this pans out on paper.
Best Bets: Steelers under 8.5 wins Will Howard OROY +7000 – .25 stars (FD)
Schedule: Medium Hard – At large vs @Buffalo, vs Houston, vs LA Rams
Schedule Last Year: Hard
Key losses: K Justin Tucker, G/C Patrick Mekari, CB Brandon Stephens, LB Malik Harrison, T Josh Jones, CB Tre’Davious White, S Marcus Williams
Key additions: QB Cooper Rush, WR DeAndre Hopkins, CB Chidobe Awuzie and some special teams guys
Key Draft Picks: S Malaki Starks, Edge Mike Green, T Emery Jones Jr. and some dudes.
Summary: Rinse repeat. The Ravens were once again the best team in football, but alas, once again blew it in the Playoffs. This is why home field advantage is such an attractive deal. Well, that and a few other things that you need to go your way. Last year’s addition of Derek Henry looked pretty genius as he seems to have a lot left in his gas tank. This team is so perfect, yet so flawed when Lamar gets deep into the playoffs. I am not going to sugar coat this. HE HAS TO PLAY BETTER! No turnovers, no sacks and just play the Ravens ballgame. Once again this Baltimore team looks destined for regular season success. I like their draft picks in Edge Mike Green and Safety Malaki Starks. My only pre-season issues is that they shed a few cornerbacks that will hurt them against some of the better offenses in this league. Will it matter as this team tends to get to the quarterback so quickly that the secondary doesn’t need to be all-stars? Probably not, but my biggest problem with taking futures on the Ravens is not being clutch in the playoffs, and Lamar has certainly taking some risks running the football. All in all, I expect the Ravens to once again win this division just to give it all back in the playoffs.
My Number: 12.59
Action – Lean over 11.5
Baltimore Raven’s power rating: 7
2. Cincinnati Bengals
Vegas win total: 9.5 juiced to the over -150
2024 Wins: 9
Pythagorean Wins: 9.42
Schedule: Medium – At large vs Jacksonville, @ Denver, vs Arizona
Schedule Last Year: Medium
Key losses: G Alex Cappa, DT Sheldon Rankins, LB Akeem Davis-Gaither, RT Trent Brown, CB Mike Hilston, S Von Bell
Key additions: DT TeDarrell Slaton, ILB Oren Burks, RB Samaje Perine, G/C Lucas Patrick
Key Draft Picks: Edge Shemar Stewart, LB Demetrius Knight Jr, G Dylan Fairchild, LB Barret Carter
Summary: The Cincinnati Bengals are really the complete opposite of the Green Bay Packers. They are a team with a lot of talent with terrible coaching to match. First, the front office decision making. Hey, I like Tee Higgens, but is this team is seriously valuing their second pass catcher over one of the best edge rushers in Tre Hendrickson? Now he’s sitting out and we do not know what is going to happen. I mean, it’s not like the 27th ranked defense in EPA needs a guy like that right? Sure, maybe he decides to end his holdout at some point in September, but there is a chance that this incompetent front office trades him. Look at what the Dallas Mavericks did with Luca. Anyways, I do expect this offense to be, once again, very good, and I also expect the defense to be, once again, well quite bad. Looking at the medium schedule, I think that their win total is a tad bit high. Maybe things line up for this team, and Joe Burrow continues to be clutch. After all, they are the only ones in this division who can beat the Ravens. This team has been stuck at nine wins for the last few years. The biggest issue with the Bengals is not personnel. It’s much more the coaching staff. Coach Zac Taylor has made some dumbfounded decisions over the past four or five years. I do not see it going any different. I could see the Bengals winning 8 – 10 games. Leaving this baby alone.
My Number: 8.72
Action: Lean under
Cincinnati Bengals Power Rating: 1
3. Pittsburgh Steelers –
Vegas win total: 8.5 juiced to the under -130
2024 Wins: 10
Pythagorean Wins: 9.44
Schedule: Medium Hard – At large vs Seattle, vs Indianapolis, @ LA Chargers
Schedule Last Year: Medium Hard
Key losses: QB Russell Wilson, QB Justin Fields, WR George Pickens, T Dan Moore, G/C James Daniels, DE Larry Ogunjobi, CB Donte Jackson, RB Najee Harris, OLB Elandon Roberts, WR Mike Williams, Edge Preston Smith, CB CJ Henderson, T Chukwuma Okafor
Key additions: QB Aaron Rodgers, WR DK Metcalf, LB Malik Harrison, CB Darius Slay, QB Mason Rudolph, CB Brandin Echols, S Juan Thornill, WR Robert Woods, RB Kenneth Gainwell, QB Skyler Thompson.
Key Draft Picks: DL Derrick Harmon, RB Kaleb Johnson, Edge Jack Sawyer, DL Yahya Black, QB Will Howard
Summary: Like we said last year, and the year before, and the year before that. When is the Steelers win total not 8.5? The sharpest season win total play was to go under that, and how did that work out for us? Not so good. I am not falling for this again, but if I sure will not be betting the over. What the Steelers are betting on is that Aaron Rogers is still good. I am quite sure that I am not so sure of that. Last season, the NFL’s drama king ranked 25th in QBR playing on the Jets with Stacked receivers and running backs. We have to go back to 2021 since Rogers was better than that. Second option Mason Rudolph has been crapped on by this team for the past five seasons. Now they decide to bring him back? Say what you want about Russ and Justin, but as far as I can tell, the Steelers made their team worse at the most important position in football. Pittsburgh has also revamped a bunch of positions, and if it wasn’t for TJ Watt, most of this team would be unrecognizable to the common football fan. I am sure that the front office thinks that they got better by shedding WR George Pickens and adding DK Metcalf, but I just do not see a situation where DK isn’t mouthing off himself due to not getting the ball. I do like Calvin Austin III a lot, and think he will benefit from some of these distractions. Another position that took a hit was running back. This team seems to like Jalen Warren, but I think his success was due to Najee taking the brunt of the opponents defense while he was more of a distract back. Similar to the NY Giants, the Steelers will be great in the defensive trenches. They seemed to focus in that area once again in this draft. I do like the additions of Darius Slay, and some of the depth pieces that they have added to their secondary. What I do not see is a lot of talent in the inside linebacker position, and that could be an issue when facing the stronger run teams in this league. It is hard to make a prediction on this team minus the fact that Rookie quarterback Will Howard might just step on in when Rogers craps out.
My Number: 7.09
Action – Will Howard OROY +7000 – .25 stars (FD) – Steelers under 8.5 wins -130 – .5 stars
Pittsburgh Steelers Power Rating: -1.25
4. Cleveland Browns –
Vegas win total: 4.5 Juiced to the over -160
2024 Wins: 3
Pythagorean Wins: 3.75
Schedule: Hard – At large @ Las Vegas, vs San Francisco, vs Tennessee
Schedule Last Year: Medium
Key losses: QB DeShawn Watson, DT Dalvin Tomlinson, RT James Hudson, QB Jameis Winston, S Juan Thornhill, CB Michael Ford, T Jedrick Wills, C Nick Harris, RB Nick Chubb
Key additions: QB Kenny Pickett, DT Maliek Collins, T Cornelius Lucas, OLB Joe Tryon, QB Joe Flacco, LB Devin Bush, G Teven Jenkins, S Rayshawn Jenkins
Summary: For the love of God. Everyone got the Browns wrong in the beginning of 2024. My projected 9.47 wins turned into three, and with all due disrespect, they were lucky to get that. The Browns are just a terrible organization, and just when you think that they made the best draft trade of the year, they go ahead and pick two running backs and two quarterbacks in later rounds. I honestly do not understand why the would pick Dillon Gabriel in the third round when he wasn’t projected to be in the top 5 rounds, and then go ahead and pick Shedeur Sanders who teams have soured on in the 5th round. It would have made more sense if these were flip-flopped, but here we are. The good news for this team is that there isn’t much room to be any worse than last year. Ranking dead last in offensive EPA leaves no room to get much worse. I do like the running back that they drafted in Quinshon Judkins, but this team still has to figure out the ever so crowded quarterback room. Another issue is that this team doesn’t have much at the wide receiver position since they traded Amari Cooper. The offensive line is poor, and they have not re-signed Tackle Jedrick Wills. The Browns defense was the only bright spot from 2025 led by an expensive Myles Garrett. The Brownies defense was a modest 18th in EPA per play. The real bad news is that the Browns have the second hardest schedule in the league. Part of that reason was getting the 49ers as their NFC at large game, as well as being net negative -7 days of rest. Playing the Ravens, the Bengals and the Steelers all twice isn’t much fun either. Can the Browns somehow find five or six wins this year? Maybe. Teams that were embarrassed tend to play better the following year, but do not bet the over on their season win total, because you might not have much fun in doing so.
Ryan Fox (75-1) secured his second PGA TOUR victory of the season with a win at the ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic last month. He now joins Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler, and Sepp Straka as the only players with multiple TOUR wins in 2025.
Our pick, Sam Burns (28-1), fell just short — losing in a playoff to Fox. That marks our sixth runner-up finish of the season.
POV: You're checking into player registration and walking through the locker room at Oakmont pic.twitter.com/r9UrkjDOkB
Now, the spotlight shifts to the U.S. Open at historic Oakmont Country Club, where the drama has already begun before the first tee shot is even struck.
Pre-Tournament Storylines
Bryson’s Back for More
Bryson DeChambeau arrives at Oakmont with a legitimate chance to etch his name in the history books once again. The reigning U.S. Open champion captured his second title last year at Pinehurst No. 2, adding to his 2020 triumph at the punishing West Course at Winged Foot. Few players are built for the brutality of a U.S. Open setup quite like Bryson.
This season, he’s been a fixture on major leaderboards—finishing T5 at the Masters and runner-up at the PGA Championship. Now, he looks to join rare company, aiming to become the first player since Brooks Koepka (2017–2018) to go back-to-back at the U.S. Open.
If you’re curious to see how his game translated to Oakmont earlier this year, Bryson gave fans a glimpse during a “practice round” that was anything but casual. His power and precision are on full display:
Scheffler’s Next Summit
Scottie Scheffler is running out of mountains to climb—and yet, this week, another summit awaits. The Masters champion added a second major title to his résumé in dominant fashion, dismantling the field at the PGA Championship at Quail Hollow with a five-shot victory.
If Scheffler wins at Oakmont, he’ll stand one title shy of the career grand slam—a feat only a handful have ever achieved. With Rory already checking off Augusta this year, don’t be shocked if Scottie follows suit by conquering Oakmont. He enters the U.S. Open having won three of his last four starts, and his form continues to border on mythical.
At this point, betting against him feels like betting against gravity.
The Last Slam: Mickelson’s Final Shot
This year marks Phil Mickelson’s final exemption into the U.S. Open—his last official shot at completing the elusive career Grand Slam. Despite his six runner-up finishes in this championship, the U.S. Open remains the one major that has slipped through his grasp. In his ten previous attempts at capturing the final leg, Mickelson has failed to finish better than a tie for 28th. Now, at 54, he returns to Oakmont with history—and heartbreak—on his shoulders.
McIlroy’s Mission at Oakmont
Rory McIlroy has finished in the top-10 at the U.S. Open each of the last 6 years.
The record is 7 straight years, done 3 times, last by Ben Hogan (1950-56).
Rory McIlroy made history earlier this season by completing the career Grand Slam at Augusta National. Now, he turns his attention to the U.S. Open, where he’s aiming to tie Ben Hogan’s record of seven consecutive top-10 finishes. McIlroy has finished runner-up in each of the last two U.S. Opens, and his lone victory at this championship came in 2011 at Congressional (Blue Course).
He was part of the field the last time the U.S. Open was held at Oakmont in 2016, though it was a forgettable week—he missed the cut.
McIlroy enters this week searching for better form after a disappointing T47 at the PGA Championship and a missed cut at the RBC Canadian Open—his first early exit of the season.
Oakmont: Where Legends Are Tested
The 125th U.S. Open will mark a record 10th time Oakmont Country Club has hosted the championship (1927, 1935, 1953, 1962, 1973, 1983, 1994, 2007, 2016, and now 2025), the most of any venue. It will also be Oakmont’s 18th USGA championship and the first since the 2021 U.S. Amateur. In August 2021, Oakmont was officially named a U.S. Open anchor site, securing future championships in 2034, 2042, and 2049. The club is also set to host the U.S. Women’s Open in 2028 and 2038, the Walker Cup in 2033, and the U.S. Women’s Amateur in 2046.
Across the nine U.S. Opens held at Oakmont, just eight players have managed to post a score lower than 280. During the most recent championship in 2016, only four players finished the week under par—a testament to the relentless challenge Oakmont presents even to the world’s best.
The last time the U.S. Open was held at Oakmont Country Club came in 2016, when Dustin Johnson broke through for his first major championship. His victory wasn’t without drama—Johnson was controversially assessed a penalty after his ball moved on the fifth green, though officials didn’t confirm the ruling until after his round. Unfazed, he delivered a composed final-round 69 to win by three shots.
From a betting standpoint, Dustin Johnson entered the 2016 U.S. Open as the fourth choice on the odds board, trailing Jason Day, Rory McIlroy, and Jordan Spieth in pre-tournament favoritism. Below is a chart highlighting the most popular futures wagers placed ahead of that championship.
Winged Foot Golf Club (West Course) – 2020 U.S. Open
Why It Compares: Like Oakmont, Winged Foot is renowned for narrow fairways, thick rough, and some of the most complex greens in the world. The course demands elite ball-striking, strategic course management, and the ability to grind over 72 holes.
Course Traits: Firm, fast, tree-lined, brutal around the greens
DeChambeau was the only player to shoot under par in the final round
Oak Hill Country Club (East Course) – 2023 PGA Championship
Why It Compares: Oak Hill shares Oakmont’s northeastern roots and has undergone a restoration emphasizing classic Donald Ross elements — narrow fairways, penal bunkering, and elevated, contoured greens. It played extremely tough, with the winning score just under par.
Course Traits: Tight off the tee, long, demanding approach shots, fast green complexes
Highlighted the importance of total driving and elite iron play
Bethpage State Park (Black Course) – 2019 PGA Championship
Why It Compares: Bethpage Black is a long, punishing layout that mirrors Oakmont in its demand for total driving, resilience out of thick rough, and elite long iron play. Its narrow fairways, deep bunkers, and elevated greens reward disciplined tee-to-green control. The 2019 PGA Championship, held in May for the first time, played firm and fast, with wind and weather contributing to high scores outside of one dominant performance.
Koepka led wire-to-wire and was the only player double digits under par at any point
Only six players finished under par
The course played brutally tough for the field, especially on the weekend, where Koepka shot 70-74 but held on for the win
Torrey Pines (South Course)
While Torrey Pines lacks some of the architectural pedigree and historical gravitas of Oakmont, it still offers a comparable test in several key areas. The South Course stretches beyond 7,700 yards and features dense rough, narrow landing areas, and a premium on both length and accuracy off the tee — a profile that fits the U.S. Open mold to a tee.
Why It Compares: Though more modern in design and layout, Torrey Pines South is one of the few courses on TOUR that truly tests total driving, long-iron proximity, and scrambling from thick rough. Like Oakmont, it’s a venue where even par is often a good score depending on conditions.
Context: This year’s Genesis was moved from Riviera to Torrey South due to wildfires. Though setup slightly easier than a U.S. Open, the course still played firm and fast with penal rough.
Winner: Ludvig Åberg (-12)
Key Stats:
Only 31 players finished the week under par
Driving accuracy and strokes gained: approach were top correlators
Scoring Average well over par for a typical TOUR event
Thursday: Hazy sunshine for most of the day and low percentages for precipitation. Low: 63°F, High: 84°F. Winds: 4-8 mph, gusting at 17 mph.
Friday: Hazy and humid conditions, with little wind. Low: 66°F, High: 83°F. Winds: 2-4 mph, gusting at 9 mph.
Saturday: Sunny periods with a shower in places that could become storms. Low: 65°F, High: 81°F. Winds: 6-10 mph, gusting at 21 mph.
Sunday: Cloudy and humid to start the day, including potential for morning thunderstorms. Rain will stay for the afternoon. Low: 63°F, High: 80°F. Winds: 4-8 mph, gusting at 13 mph.
Course/ Tournament History:
The United States Open Championship, commonly known as the U.S. Open, is the annual open national championship of golf in the United States and is the third of the four major championships in professional golf. First played in 1895 at Newport Country Club in Rhode Island, the inaugural event was a single-day, 36-hole competition held on a nine-hole course. Since then, the tournament has evolved into one of the most prestigious and challenging events in the sport. Originally dominated by British professionals, American golfers soon rose to prominence, with John J. McDermott becoming the first American-born champion in 1911. The U.S. Open is known for its demanding course setups—narrow fairways, thick rough, and lightning-fast greens—all designed to test every aspect of a player’s game. Historically, ties after 72 holes were settled with an 18-hole playoff, but in 2018, the USGA adopted a two-hole aggregate playoff, followed by sudden death if necessary. Winning the U.S. Open carries immense prestige along with tangible benefits, including a five-year exemption on the PGA Tour, invitations to the other three majors for the next five years, and a ten-year exemption into the U.S. Open itself.
Oakmont boasts many distinctive features, but none is more striking than the Pennsylvania Turnpike cutting through the heart of the course.@BrendanPorath dives into the history of this iconic intersection of infrastructure and golf.
Oakmont Country Club, located in Oakmont, Pennsylvania, stands as one of the most storied and demanding venues in American golf. Founded in 1903 by Pittsburgh steel magnate Henry C. Fownes, the course was created to be an unrelenting test of skill, and it has remained true to that vision for more than a century. With its lightning-fast greens, cavernous bunkers, and thick rough, Oakmont is renowned as one of the toughest challenges in the game.
Constructed by hand with the help of 150 laborers and a team of horses, Oakmont officially opened in 1904 as an “inland links” course—designed to echo the characteristics of the great British links layouts despite its inland setting. Originally playing to a par of 80, the course has evolved, but the spirit of Fownes’ design remains intact.
Oakmont’s national profile grew under Henry’s son, William C. Fownes Jr., a decorated amateur who brought the 1919 U.S. Amateur to the club, launching its legacy as a championship venue. Since then, Oakmont has hosted 20 national championships, including a record nine U.S. Opens. The club has witnessed countless iconic moments: Ben Hogan’s comeback victory in 1953, Johnny Miller’s historic final-round 63 in 1973, and Dustin Johnson’s long-awaited major breakthrough in 2016.
Though tree plantings in the 1950s briefly altered its character, a major restoration in the early 2000s removed over 10,000 trees, returning Oakmont to its original open and punishing layout. Today, it remains one of the purest tests in championship golf and a fixture on the USGA’s future schedule, with multiple U.S. Opens and other major tournaments already slated for the decades ahead.
In 2023, Gil Hanse and Jim Wagner led a significant renovation in preparation for Oakmont’s historic 10th U.S. Open. Their goal was to return the course even closer to Fownes’ original vision. Nearly 150 yards were added through new tees—such as on holes 3 and 11—bringing the championship layout to 7,372 yards and a par of 70. More impactful than distance, however, was the restoration of the greens. Using pre-1947 photos, Hanse and Wagner recaptured the squared-off edges and expanded putting surfaces by roughly 15%, reintroducing classic hole locations and reconnecting them to dramatically rebuilt bunkers.
Several holes received surgical updates. On Hole 2, a previously narrow fairway was widened, with bunkers repositioned to reward strategic tee shots. Hole 3 gained nearly 40 yards and an added “pew” in the infamous bunker, while a crescent-shaped bunker design tightened the landing zone. Hole 7 underwent the most dramatic redesign, restoring a long-lost cross-bunker and creating an alternate fairway. On Hole 13, the green was reshaped to make a subtle ridge playable again, creating a thrilling new pin location in the back-left. At the 17th, fairway bunkers were consolidated, and a previously safe bailout area was replaced with long fescue, ramping up the challenge.
These changes enhance Oakmont’s brutal beauty while honoring its legacy. As the club prepares to host more major championships—including U.S. Opens in 2025, 2033, 2042, and 2049—it remains a symbol of timeless championship golf.
Previous Tournament Venues:
Below is a comprehensive list of U.S. Open venues dating back to the tournament’s inception in 1895. While the championship rotates annually, several distinguished courses have earned the honor of hosting multiple times throughout its storied history.
Year
Venue
Location
2025
Oakmont Country Club
Oakmont, Pennsylvania
2024
Pinehurst Resort (No. 2 Course)
Pinehurst, North Carolina
2023
Los Angeles Country Club (North Course)
Los Angeles, California
2022
The Country Club
Brookline, Massachusetts
2021
Torrey Pines Golf Course (South Course)
San Diego, California
2020
Winged Foot Golf Club
Mamaroneck, New York
2019
Pebble Beach Golf Links
Pebble Beach, California
2018
Shinnecock Hills Golf Club
Southampton, New York
2017
Erin Hills
Erin, Wisconsin
2016
Oakmont Country Club
Oakmont, Pennsylvania
2015
Chambers Bay Golf Course
University Place, Washington
2014
Pinehurst Resort (No. 2 Course)
Pinehurst, North Carolina
2013
Merion Golf Club
Ardmore, Pennsylvania
2012
Olympic Club
San Francisco, California
2011
Congressional Country Club
Bethesda, Maryland
2010
Pebble Beach Golf Links
Pebble Beach, California
2009
Bethpage State Park (Black Course)
Farmingdale, New York
2008
Torrey Pines Golf Course (South Course)
San Diego, California
2007
Oakmont Country Club
Oakmont, Pennsylvania
2006
Winged Foot Golf Club
Mamaroneck, New York
2005
Pinehurst Resort (No. 2 Course)
Pinehurst, North Carolina
2004
Shinnecock Hills Golf Club
Southampton, New York
2003
Olympia Fields Country Club
Olympia Fields, Illinois
2002
Bethpage State Park (Black Course)
Farmingdale, New York
2001
Southern Hills Country Club
Tulsa, Oklahoma
2000
Pebble Beach Golf Links
Pebble Beach, California
1999
Pinehurst Resort (No. 2 Course)
Pinehurst, North Carolina
1998
Olympic Club
San Francisco, California
1997
Congressional Country Club
Bethesda, Maryland
1996
Oakland Hills Country Club
Bloomfield Hills, Michigan
1995
Shinnecock Hills Golf Club
Southampton, New York
1994
Oakmont Country Club
Oakmont, Pennsylvania
1993
Baltusrol Golf Club
Springfield, New Jersey
1992
Pebble Beach Golf Links
Pebble Beach, California
1991
Hazeltine National Golf Club
Chaska, Minnesota
1990
Medinah Country Club
Medinah, Illinois
1989
Oak Hill Country Club
Rochester, New York
1988
The Country Club
Brookline, Massachusetts
1987
Olympic Club
San Francisco, California
1986
Shinnecock Hills Golf Club
Southampton, New York
1985
Oakland Hills Country Club
Bloomfield Hills, Michigan
1984
Winged Foot Golf Club
Mamaroneck, New York
1983
Oakmont Country Club
Oakmont, Pennsylvania
1982
Pebble Beach Golf Links
Pebble Beach, California
1981
Merion Golf Club
Ardmore, Pennsylvania
1980
Baltusrol Golf Club
Springfield, New Jersey
1979
Inverness Club
Toledo, Ohio
1978
Cherry Hills Country Club
Englewood, Colorado
1977
Southern Hills Country Club
Tulsa, Oklahoma
1976
Atlanta Athletic Club
Duluth, Georgia
1975
Medinah Country Club
Medinah, Illinois
1974
Winged Foot Golf Club
Mamaroneck, New York
1973
Oakmont Country Club
Oakmont, Pennsylvania
1972
Pebble Beach Golf Links
Pebble Beach, California
1971
Merion Golf Club
Ardmore, Pennsylvania
1970
Hazeltine National Golf Club
Chaska, Minnesota
1969
Champions Golf Club
Houston, Texas
1968
Oak Hill Country Club
Rochester, New York
1967
Baltusrol Golf Club
Springfield, New Jersey
1966
Olympic Club
San Francisco, California
1965
Bellerive Country Club
Town and Country, Missouri
1964
Congressional Country Club
Bethesda, Maryland
1963
The Country Club
Brookline, Massachusetts
1962
Oakmont Country Club
Oakmont, Pennsylvania
1961
Oakland Hills Country Club
Bloomfield Hills, Michigan
1960
Cherry Hills Country Club
Englewood, Colorado
1959
Winged Foot Golf Club
Mamaroneck, New York
1958
Southern Hills Country Club
Tulsa, Oklahoma
1957
Inverness Club
Toledo, Ohio
1956
Oak Hill Country Club
Rochester, New York
1955
Olympic Club
San Francisco, California
1954
Baltusrol Golf Club
Springfield, New Jersey
1953
Oakmont Country Club
Oakmont, Pennsylvania
1952
Northwood Club
Dallas, Texas
1951
Oakland Hills Country Club
Bloomfield Hills, Michigan
1950
Merion Golf Club
Ardmore, Pennsylvania
1949
Medinah Country Club
Medinah, Illinois
1948
Riviera Country Club
Pacific Palisades, California
1947
St. Louis Country Club
Ladue, Missouri
1946
Canterbury Golf Club
Beachwood, Ohio
1945
No tournament (World War II)
1944
No tournament (World War II)
1943
No tournament (World War II)
1942
No tournament (World War II)
1941
Colonial Country Club
Fort Worth, Texas
1940
Canterbury Golf Club
Beachwood, Ohio
1939
Philadelphia Country Club
Gladwyne, Pennsylvania
1938
Cherry Hills Country Club
Englewood, Colorado
1937
Oakland Hills Country Club
Bloomfield Hills, Michigan
1936
Baltusrol Golf Club
Springfield, New Jersey
1935
Oakmont Country Club
Oakmont, Pennsylvania
1934
Merion Golf Club
Ardmore, Pennsylvania
1933
North Shore Country Club
Glenview, Illinois
1932
Fresh Meadow Country Club
Flushing, New York
1931
Inverness Club
Toledo, Ohio
1930
Interlachen Country Club
Edina, Minnesota
1929
Winged Foot Golf Club
Mamaroneck, New York
1928
Olympia Fields Country Club
Olympia Fields, Illinois
1927
Oakmont Country Club
Oakmont, Pennsylvania
1926
Scioto Country Club
Columbus, Ohio
1925
Worcester Country Club
Worcester, Massachusetts
1924
Oakland Hills Country Club
Bloomfield Hills, Michigan
1923
Inwood Country Club
Inwood, New York
1922
Skokie Country Club
Glencoe, Illinois
1921
Columbia Country Club
Chevy Chase, Maryland
1920
Inverness Club
Toledo, Ohio
1919
Brae Burn Country Club
West Newton, Massachusetts
1918
No tournament (World War I)
1917
No tournament (World War I)
1916
Minikahda Club
Minneapolis, Minnesota
1915
Baltusrol Golf Club
Springfield, New Jersey
1914
Midlothian Country Club
Midlothian, Illinois
1913
The Country Club
Brookline, Massachusetts
1912
Country Club of Buffalo
Buffalo, New York
1911
Chicago Golf Club
Wheaton, Illinois
1910
Philadelphia Cricket Club
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
1909
Englewood Golf Club
Englewood, New Jersey
1908
Myopia Hunt Club
South Hamilton, Massachusetts
1907
Philadelphia Cricket Club
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
1906
Onwentsia Club
Lake Forest, Illinois
1905
Myopia Hunt Club
South Hamilton, Massachusetts
1904
Glen View Club
Golf, Illinois
1903
Baltusrol Golf Club
Springfield, New Jersey
1902
Garden City Golf Club
Garden City, New York
1901
Myopia Hunt Club
South Hamilton, Massachusetts
1900
Chicago Golf Club
Wheaton,
1899
Baltimore (Roland Park Course)
Baltimore, Maryland
1898
Myopia Hunt Club
South Hamilton, Massachusetts
1897
Chicago
Wheaton, Illinois
1896
Shinnecock Hills
Shinnecock Hills, New York
1895
Newport
Newport, Rhode Island
Previous Tournament Names:
Duration
Tournament Name
1895-1916, 1919-1941, 1946-Present
U.S. Open
Tournament Records:
Most Wins at Event (U.S. Open):
4 – Willie Anderson 1901, 1903–1905; Bobby Jones 1923, 1926, 1929–30; Ben Hogan 1948, 1950–51, 1953; Jack Nicklaus 1962, 1967, 1972, 1980
72-Hole Record (U.S. Open):
268, Rory McIlroy (2011 at Congressional CC)
18-Hole Record (U.S. Open):
62, Rickie Fowler, Xander Schauffele (Round 1, 2023 at Los Angeles Country Club)
Largest Margin of Victory:
15 Strokes – Tiger Woods (Pebble Beach, 2000)
Youngest Winner:
19 Years Old, John J. McDermott (1911)
Oldest Winner:
45 Years Old, Hale Irwin (1990)
Course Records:
72-Hole Record (Oakmont Country Club):
272 (-16), Dustin Johnson (2016)
18-Hole Record (Oakmont Country Club):
63, Johnny Miller (Round 4, 1973)
Johnny Miller at Oakmont. First to shoot 63 in a major. And he did it on championship Sunday.
Oakmont Country Club, nestled along the Allegheny River just northeast of Pittsburgh, stands as a stern and unyielding monument to championship golf. Designed in 1903 by steel magnate Henry Fownes, the course is widely regarded as one of the most demanding tests in the game, by design and not by accident.
The layout unfolds across a rolling, open expanse of western Pennsylvania terrain with no water hazards and almost no trees, offering a raw and unfiltered examination of a player’s skill, discipline, and mental fortitude. Yet what Oakmont lacks in natural ornamentation, it more than compensates for in sheer architectural audacity.
At the heart of Oakmont’s relentless challenge are its lightning-fast greens, arguably the fastest in major championship golf. Heavily sloped, firm, and treacherously quick, they place an extraordinary premium on precise approach play and razor-sharp putting. Many of these greens are perched or crowned, often repelling anything less than the most precisely judged shot.
Bunkering at Oakmont is another signature element. The course is flanked by over 200 bunkers, many of them deep, cavernous, and brutal in nature. Chief among them is the infamous Church Pews bunker, a massive hazard that separates the third and fourth fairways with 13 distinctive grassy ridges. Its visual intimidation is matched only by its strategic influence.
The routing is a masterclass in subtle difficulty. Holes ebb and flow across the property with very little respite. The par 70 layout stretches to over 7,300 yards, demanding accuracy and courage from the first tee to the final green. It begins with a relatively gentle par four, only to quickly escalate in intensity with stern doglegs, long par fours, and narrow fairways that reward placement over power.
Each nine has its own character. The front nine is varied and tactical, highlighted by the long par three eighth and the brutish uphill ninth, converted from a par five to a par four for championship play. The back nine is merciless, with a closing stretch that has decided numerous U.S. Opens. The par three sixteenth is long and exposed, the seventeenth invites boldness off the tee, and the eighteenth, a long uphill par four, is a true finishing gauntlet.
Thanks to recent restorations by Gil Hanse and Jim Wagner, Oakmont has recaptured much of its original form. Greens have been expanded to their historic edges, bunkers restructured to match early photographs, and fairways widened in strategic zones. These changes have not softened Oakmont’s bite, they have simply made it truer to its architectural roots.
In its essence, Oakmont is pure golf, a course that exposes weakness, rewards courage, and rarely forgives a moment’s lapse in concentration. For over a century, it has been a proving ground for champions and a crucible for the game’s finest talents.
Oakmont’s quartet of par threes presents a formidable examination of precision and control. Ranging from 182 to a daunting 289 yards, three of the four stretch beyond the 200-yard mark, demanding long irons or even fairway metals into narrow, well-defended targets. During the 2016 U.S. Open, each par three played over par with one exception. No. 13, the shortest of the set at just under 200 yards, yielded a scoring average of 2.99. It was the only brief moment of relative respite in an otherwise unforgiving set of one-shot holes.
The first of Oakmont’s par 3s requires precision. Aiming for the center of the green is key, as a miss left or right significantly reduces the chances of saving par.
One of the longest par 3s in the world, the 8th green is more receptive to a right-to-left ball flight. Par is an excellent score here. In U.S. Open history, this hole has twice held the distinction of being the longest par three ever played in the event, stretching to 299 yards during the final round in 2016 and reaching an even 300 yards in the final round in 2007.
The par 3 13th requires a perfect short-to-mid iron into its famously undulating green. A miss long or right makes saving par nearly impossible. Staying below the hole is essential for any realistic birdie or par chance.
A long iron or fairway wood is needed to reach this large green, which features a severe false front. The trench bunker along the left side makes this par 3 a formidable challenge.
Oakmont Country Club presents a formidable collection of twelve par fours, each sculpted to test a player’s full command of the game. The majority of these holes, four in total, fall within the demanding 450-to-500-yard range. The shortest of the group, the 17th, measures a mere 312 yards, offering a tempting risk-reward opportunity late in the round. In contrast, the 15th stands as the longest par four on the course at a stern 507 yards, requiring a pair of well-executed shots to reach the green in regulation. During the 2016 U.S. Open, the first hole emerged as the most difficult, playing to an average of 4.45 strokes, while the 17th proved the most forgiving, yielding a scoring average of 3.89.
One of the most challenging opening holes in golf, this par 4 demands a precise tee shot followed by a mid-iron approach into a green that slopes away from the player. Walking away with a par here is an excellent start.
The famous Church Pews bunker on the left, cavernous bunkers on the right, and an elevated green that requires a high, soft approach with controlled spin make this one of the most difficult par 4s in the country.
A blind tee shot, an infamous ditch looming on the left, and bunkers lining the right, make this one of Oakmont’s most demanding holes. Framed by the historic clubhouse and connected to the practice green, the 9th features one of the most iconic green complexes in the game.
This long par 4 features a blind tee shot to a fairway that slopes left to right. A mid-to-long iron approach is typically required into a large, sloping green. A par here can provide valuable momentum heading into the final stretch.
One of the best finishing holes in golf, Oakmont’s 18th hole demands four well-played shots to make par. A memorable finish awaits those who execute well.
Oakmont Country Club boasts two imposing par fives, the fourth and twelfth holes, each extending over 600 yards. In the 2016 U.S. Open, the fourth hole stood out by playing just under par with a scoring average of 4.97, while the twelfth demanded greater precision and patience, posting a scoring average of 5.14.
Playing along the opposite side of the Church Pews, the left side of this par 5 is daunting, while bunkers and thick rough on the right add to the challenge. Longer hitters can reach the green in two, but a committed line on the blind second shot is necessary to create an eagle opportunity.
The final par 5 at Oakmont demands three well-executed shots. Bunkers and ditches along both sides require strategic play. The green slopes severely from front to back, making approach shots difficult to hold.
The U.S. Open takes place at Oakmont Country Club. Here are the key statistics to keep an eye on for this week’s event.
Statistics
PGA Tour Average
Oakmont Country Club
Driving Distance (Yards)
283.83
N/A
Driving Accuracy
62%
55%
GIR Percentage
66%
56%
Avg GIR Prox. to Hole (Feet)
29.17
N/A
Scrambling Percentage
58%
40%
Avg 3 Putts / Round
0.55
1.21
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
Oakmont is widely regarded as one of the most demanding tee-to-green tests in championship golf. Players must be in total control of their long game to contend. With punishing rough, strategic bunkering, and sloped greens, precision and consistency from the tee through approach play are paramount.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Scottie Scheffler
Bryson DeChambeau
Keegan Bradley
Tommy Fleetwood
Tyrrell Hatton
Daniel Berger
Xander Schauffele
Joaquin Niemann
Shane Lowry
Brooks Koepka
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Driving is a premium at Oakmont. Narrow fairways lined with thick rough and strategically placed bunkers demand both distance and accuracy.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Bryson DeCheambeau
Scottie Scheffler
Jordan L Smith
Niklas Norgaard Moller
Jordan Spieth
Brooks Koepka
Patrick Cantlay
Daniel Berger
Rasmus Hojgaard
Corey Conners
Strokes Gained: Approach
Oakmont’s greens are heavily contoured and well-protected. Gaining on approach is a critical path to scoring or even saving pars.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Scottie Scheffler
Sepp Straka
Shane Lowry
Xander Schauffele
Bud Cauley
Viktor Hovland
Patrick Cantlay
Daniel Berger
Collin Morikawa
John Peterson
Strokes Gained: Around the Green – Rough Length: Long
Oakmont’s rough is among the thickest and most penal on the PGA TOUR rotation. With narrow fairways and firm, fast greens, missing in regulation is inevitable — even for elite ball-strikers. This places an added emphasis on short game performance, especially from difficult lies around the green. The greens are heavily contoured and sloped, making delicate touch and precise trajectory control crucial. Players who can consistently save par from gnarly rough or tight lies will have a significant edge.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Hideki Matsuyama
Sungjae Im
Russell Henley
Si Woo Kim
Cameron Smith
Daniel Berger
Davis Riley
Adam Scott
Mackenzie Hughes
Min Woo Lee
Strokes Gained: Putting (Poa annua) – Green Speed: Lightning
Oakmont’s greens are legendary—lightning fast Poa annua cut to .084” and rolling between 14’5” and 14’9” on the Stimpmeter. For reference, the PGA Championship ran at 12’ and Augusta at 13’–14’.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Jon Rahm
Marc Leishman
Bryson DeChambeau
Aaron Rai
Doug Ghim
Brooks Koepka
Maverick McNealy
Wyndham Clark
Akshay Bhatia
Lucas Glover
3-Putt Avoidance
Three-putting is a real threat on Oakmont’s massive, undulating surfaces. In 2016, even the best struggled to lag putt effectively.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Cameron Smith
Si Woo Kim
Harris English
Jose Luis Ballester Barrio
Carlos Ortiz
J.T. Poston
Justin Thomas
Xander Schauffele
Sam Burns
Scottie Scheffler
Strokes Gained: Total – Scoring Relative to Par: Difficult
Oakmont consistently plays as one of the hardest courses in golf. Players who thrive in difficult scoring conditions are historically more reliable in U.S. Opens.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Scottie Scheffler
Bryson DeChambeau
Corey Conners
Shane Lowry
Rory McIlroy
Russell Henley
Jon Rahm
Xander Schauffele
Collin Morikawa
Ryan Fox
Driving Distance Gained
While accuracy is vital, carrying hazards and setting up shorter irons is a significant advantage on some of Oakmont’s longer holes.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Bryson DeChambeau
Niklas Norgaard Moller
Rory McIlroy
Xander Schauffele
Min Woo Lee
Ludvig Åberg
Trevor Cone
Jon Rahm
Jose Luis Ballester Barrio
Chris Gotterup
Par 3 Scoring: 225+ Yards
Two of Oakmont’s Par 3s stretch beyond 225 yards. In both 2007 and 2016, Hole No. 8 even approached 300 yards during tournament play.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Jordan L Smith
Eric Cole
Thorbjorn Olesen
Daniel Berger
Matt McCarty
Bryson DeChambeau
Denny McCarthy
Samuel Stevens
James Hahn
Mark Hubbard
Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 Yards
Five of Oakmont’s twelve Par 4s fall within the 450–500 yard range.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Bryson DeChambeau
Scottie Scheffler
Shane Lowry
Matthew Jordan
Sam Burns
Ludvig Aberg
Tommy Fleetwood
Justin Lower
Max Greyserman
Patrick Reed
Par 5 Scoring: 600-650 Yards
Both of Oakmont’s Par 5s fall within the 600-650 yard range.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Rory McIlroy
Andrew Novak
Jon Rahm
Jordan L Smith
Byeong Hun An
Marc Leishman
Jose Luis Ballester Barrio
Niklas Norgaard Moller
Scottie Scheffler
Aaron Rai
Bogey Avoidance Gained
Oakmont’s layout demands discipline. Avoiding bogeys—and worse—is the formula for staying in contention.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Scottie Scheffler
Si Woo Kim
Guido Migliozzi
Joaquin Niemann
Xander Schauffele
Rory McIlroy
Bryson DeChambeau
Corey Conners
Ben Griffin
Patrick Cantlay
Sand Saves Gained
Bunkers are a defining feature of Oakmont. With nearly 170 of them, proficient sand play is essential.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Tom Hoge
Patrick Reed
Matt Wallace
Tyrrell Hatton
J.T. Poston
James Hahn
Si Woo Kim
Michael Kim
Brian Harman
Denny McCarthy
Proximity Gained: 175-200 Yards
A high percentage of second shots—especially on long Par 4s—will come from 175-200 yard range.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Viktor Hovland
Scottie Scheffler
Patrick Reed
Brooks Koepka
Bud Cauley
Patrick Cantlay
Benjamin James
Joaquin Niemann
Davis Thompson
Emiliano Grillo
Major History
Success in major championships, particularly the U.S. Open, is often less about pure talent and more about patience, precision, and resilience—qualities that Oakmont demands in spades. Players who have historically performed well in major championships are more likely to rise to the occasion at a venue that offers no room for error. The ability to navigate firm fairways, punishing rough, and lightning-fast greens under immense pressure is a proven skillset, not a fluke.
Leaders in this category:
Scottie Scheffler
Xander Schauffele
Rory McIlroy
Jon Rahm
Collin Morikawa
Brooks Koepka
Viktor Hovland
Bryson DeChambeau
Shane Lowry
Tommy Fleetwood
Comparable Courses
When examining potential player success at Oakmont, it’s essential to factor in results at similar venues. Oakmont’s DNA is shared with other classical layouts known for narrow fairways, penal rough, and fast Poa annua greens.
Leaders in this category:
Rory McIlroy
Jon Rahm
Dustin Johnson
Scottie Scheffler
Patrick Reed
Tony Finau
Hideki Matsuyama
Adam Scott
Viktor Hovland
Jason Day
Bryson DeCheambeau
The Field:
The 2025 U.S. Open will welcome a field of 156 players, including 49 of the top 50 in the Official World Golf Ranking. The only absence among the elite is Billy Horschel, who will miss the U.S. Open as he recovers from recent surgery on his right hip.
Basis of qualification for each entrant this week:
Winners of the U.S. Open for the last ten years
Winner and runner-up from the previous year’s U.S. Amateur and winners of the previous year’s U.S. Junior Amateur and U.S. Mid-Amateur
The runner-up from the U.S. Amateur, the winner of the U.S. Junior Amateur, and U.S. Mid-Amateur must remain an amateur.
The winner of the U.S. Amateur, however, may turn professional after winning the U.S. Amateur and retain his eligibility.
Winner of the previous year’s Amateur Championship
The previous year’s Mark H. McCormack Medal winner for the top-ranked amateur golfer in the world
Winners of each of Masters Tournament, Open Championship and PGA Championship for the last five years
Winners of the last three Players Championships
Winner of the current year’s BMW PGA Championship
Winner of the last U.S. Senior Open
Players who win multiple U.S. PGA Tour events during the time between tournaments, provided the tournaments each offer 500 or more points to the winner, and are not opposite-field events.
In the year after the Olympic golf tournament, the reigning men’s gold medalist
Top 10 finishers and ties from the previous year’s U.S. Open
Players who qualified for the previous year’s Tour Championship
The top 60 in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) as of two weeks before the start of the tournament
The top 60 in the OWGR as of the tournament date
The top player in the PGA Tour second-tier developmental series points, based on combined points from the Regular Season and Finals, from the previous season (starting in 2023)
Special exemptions selected by the USGA
All remaining spots after the second top 60 OWGR cutoff date filled by alternates from qualifying tournaments.
Previous Winners in the Field (Event):
Bryson DeChambeau (2024, 2020), Wyndham Clark (2023), Matthew Fitzpatrick (2022), Jon Rahm (2021), Gary Woodland (2019), Brooks Koepka (2018, 2017), Dustin Johnson (2016), Jordan Spieth (2015), Justin Rose (2013), Rory McIlroy (2011), Lucas Glover (2009)
Previous Winners in the Field (Course):
Dustin Johnson (2016)
Debutants in the Field:
Alistair Docherty, Alvaro Ortiz, Benjamin Griffin, Bryan Lee, Cameron Tankersley, Chandler Blanchet, Emilio Gonzalez, Evan Beck, Frankie Harris, Frederic LaCroix, George Duangmanee, George Kneiser, Grant Haefner, Harrison Ott, Jackson Koivun, Jacob Bridgeman, Jacques Kruyswijk, James Nicholas, Joakim Lagergren, Joey Herrera, Johnny Keefer, Jose Luis Ballester, Justin Hastings, Kevin Velo, Lance Simpson, Laurie Canter, Mason Howell, Matt Vogt, Michael La Sasso, Niklas Norgaard Moller, Noah Kent, Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen, Riley Lewis, Ryan McCormick, Scott Vincent, Trent Phillips, Trevor Cone, Trevor Gutschewski, Tyler Weaver, Will Chandler, Yuta Sugiura, Zach Bauchou, Zachery Pollo
Amateurs in the Field:
Evan Beck, Trevor Gutschewski, Frankie Harris, Justin Hastings, Mason Howell, Ben James, Noah Kent, Jackson Koivun, Michael La Sasso, Bryan Lee, Zachary Pollo, Lance Simpson, Cameron Tankersley, Matt Vogt, Tyler Weaver
Notable Withdraws/ Changes:
OUT Sahith Theegala -> IN Matthew Jordan (alternate)
Here’s a comprehensive breakdown of the top players in the field for this year’s U.S. Open at Oakmont Country Club, ranked by current betting odds (via DraftKings). The table below details each player’s five most recent finishes on the PGA TOUR and their last five results at the U.S. Open.
Will There Be a Playoff at the U.S. Open? (Yes +500 / No -1000)
The most recent U.S. Open to be decided by a playoff came in 2008 at Torrey Pines, where Tiger Woods famously edged Rocco Mediate in a dramatic Monday finish to capture his third U.S. Open title. Since then, the U.S. Open has not required extra holes, marking the longest playoff drought among golf’s four major championships.
At Oakmont Country Club, three of the previous nine U.S. Opens have also gone to a playoff. Tommy Armour defeated Harry Cooper in 1927, Jack Nicklaus topped Arnold Palmer in 1962, and Ernie Els outdueled Colin Montgomerie and Loren Roberts in 1994.
Will There Be A Hole-in-One at the U.S. Open? (Yes +125/ No -190)
The last hole-in-one at Oakmont Country Club during a U.S. Open came in 1983, when Scott Simpson aced the 228-yard 16th hole. No aces were recorded in the 2016, 2007, or 1994 championships held at Oakmont.
However, hole-in-ones have become more common in recent U.S. Opens. Each of the past three editions featured at least one: two were made at Pinehurst No. 2 in 2024, two at Los Angeles Country Club in 2023, and one at The Country Club in 2022.
The projected winning score for the U.S. Open is set at 278.5. That means a winning score of -2 or better cashes the under, while -1 or worse hits the over.
When Oakmont last hosted in 2016, Dustin Johnson posted a 276 (-4) en route to victory. But since then, the course has undergone a significant renovation—adding even more bite to an already punishing layout.
Players expect a brutal test. Most have pegged the winning score around even par, but Ben Griffin went a step further, suggesting it could take as much as +5 to win.
The last time the winner of the U.S. Open had a winning score was Brooks Koepka (+1) in 2018 at Shinnecock Hills.
2023: Wyndham Clark (-10) − Los Angeles Country Club (North Course)
Price:66-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Wyndham Clark
2nd
7th
49th
3rd
4th
2022: Matt Fitzpatrick (-6) − The Country Club (Composite Course)
Price: 25-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Matt Fitzpatrick
2nd
1st
10th
1st
42nd
2021: Jon Rahm (-6) − Torrey Pines (South Course)
Price: 10-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Jon Rahm
5th
5th
11th
17th
20th
2020: Bryson DeChambeau (-6) − Winged Foot (West Course)
Price: 25-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Bryson DeChambeau
2nd
1st
1st
3rd
18th
Previous Winners Incoming Form (Last 5 Starts):
2024: Bryson DeChambeau
T18 – LIV Houston (LIV)
2 – PGA Championship (MAJ)
T27 – LIV Singapore (LIV)
T26 – LIV Adelaide (LIV)
T6 – Masters Tournament (MAJ)
2023: Wyndham Clark
T12 – the Memorial Tournament (PGA)
MC – PGA Championship (MAJ)
WON – Wells Fargo Championship (PGA)
T24 – Mexico Open (PGA)
3 – Zurich Classic of New Orleans (PGA)
2022: Matt Fitzpatrick
T10 – RBC Candian Open (PGA)
MC – the Memorial Tournament (PGA)
T5 – PGA Championship (MAJ)
T2 – Wells Fargo Championship (PGA)
MC – RBC Heritage (PGA)
2021: Jon Rahm
WD – the Memorial Tournament (PGA)
T8 – PGA Championship (MAJ)
T34 – AT&T Byron Nelson (PGA)
MC – Wells Fargo Championship (PGA)
7 – Zurich Classic of New Orleans (PGA)
2020: Bryson DeChambeau
T6 – Travelers Championship (PGA)
T8 – RBC Heritage (PGA)
T3 – Charles Schwab Challenge (PGA)
N/A – THE PLAYERS Championship (PGA)
4 – Arnold Palmer Invitational (PGA)
2 – WGC-Mexico Championship (PGA)
Previous Winners Finishes at Event:
2024: Bryson DeChambeau
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
Los Angeles Country Club (North Course)
The Country Club (Composite Course)
Torrey Pines (South Course)
Winged Foot (West Course)
Pebble Beach
Shinnecock Hills
Erin Hills
Oakmont
Chambers Bay
Bryson DeChambeau
T20
T56
T26
WON
T35
T25
MC
T15
MC
2023: Wyndham Clark
2022
2021
The Country Club (Composite Course)
Torrey Pines (South Course)
Wyndham Clark
MC
MC
2022: Matt Fitzpatrick
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2014
Torrey Pines (South Course)
Winged Foot (West Course)
Pebble Beach
Shinnecock Hills
Erin Hills
Oakmont
Pinehurst No. 2
Matt Fitzpatrick
T55
MC
T12
T12
T35
T54
T48
2021: Jon Rahm
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
Winged Foot (West Course)
Pebble Beach
Shinnecock Hills
Erin Hills
Oakmont
Jon Rahm
T23
T3
MC
MC
T23
2020: Bryson DeChambeau
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
Pebble Beach
Shinnecock Hills
Erin Hills
Oakmont
Chambers Bay
Bryson DeChambeau
T35
T25
MC
T15
MC
Sportsbook Promotions:
DraftKings:
FanDuel:
Picks:
Outrights
Bryson DeChambeau (+900) – DraftKings
Bryson DeChambeau has shown strong form in the season’s first two Majors, finishing tied for 5th at the Masters and runner-up at last month’s PGA Championship. On the LIV Tour, he continues to impress with finishes of T4 at LIV Virginia last week, a win at LIV Korea, and T2 at LIV Mexico City in his last three events.
As the defending U.S. Open champion, Bryson is returning to Pinehurst Course No. 2, where he claimed last year’s title. This was his second U.S. Open win after his 2020 victory at Winged Foot Golf Club (West Course), a key comparable course this week. Additionally, Bryson has strong results at similar venues: T4 at Oak Hill (2023 PGA Championship), T26 at Torrey Pines (South Course, 2021 U.S. Open), and T15 at Oakmont Country Club in the 2016 U.S. Open.
Regionally, Bryson has excelled at Northeastern courses, with wins at the 2018 Dell Technologies Championship (TPC Boston, Massachusetts) and the 2018 Northern Trust (Ridgewood Country Club, New Jersey).
SG: T2G
SG: OTT
SG: APP
SG: ATG
SG: P (Poa)
3 Putt Avoid.
SG: T (Diff.)
Driving Dist.
P3: 225+
P4: 450-500
P5: 600-650
Bogey Avoid.
Sand Saves
Prox: 175-200
2
1
49
13
3
125
2
1
6
1
30
7
19
142
Ranks based on last 24 rounds amongst the field. For a more detailed look into each stat, check out the Key Statistics Section.
Jon Rahm (+1200) – DraftKings
Jon Rahm has played well through the first two Majors this year, finishing T14 at the Masters and T8 at the PGA Championship. On the LIV Tour, his recent results include T8 at LIV Virginia, T7 at LIV Korea, and 4th at LIV Mexico City.
Rahm won the 2021 U.S. Open at Torrey Pines (South Course), a comparable venue for this week. He also finished T12 and T10 in the 2022 and 2023 U.S. Opens, respectively, though he withdrew from the 2024 event due to a foot infection. Like Bryson, Rahm played the 2016 U.S. Open at Oakmont, finishing T23.
He has found success on Northeastern courses, with strong finishes such as T6 at the 2020 Northern Trust and T4 at the 2017 Dell Technologies Championship, both held at TPC Boston. He also placed T8 at the 2022 BMW Championship (Wilmington Country Club, Delaware) and T24 at the 2018 BMW Championship (Aronimink Golf Club, Pennsylvania).
SG: T2G
SG: OTT
SG: APP
SG: ATG
SG: P (Poa)
3 Putt Avoid.
SG: T (Diff.)
Driving Dist.
P3: 225+
P4: 450-500
P5: 600-650
Bogey Avoid.
Sand Saves
Prox: 175-200
49
48
67
34
1
138
7
8
21
29
3
18
64
44
Ranks based on last 24 rounds amongst the field. For a more detailed look into each stat, check out the Key Statistics Section.
Joaquin Niemann (+3500) – DraftKings
Joaquin Niemann has been the standout player on the LIV Tour this season with four wins, including LIV Adelaide, LIV Singapore, LIV Mexico City, and most recently LIV Virginia.
Though he has struggled historically in Majors, Niemann is showing improvement, finishing T29 in the first Major of the year and posting a career-best T8 at the recent PGA Championship.
SG: T2G
SG: OTT
SG: APP
SG: ATG
SG: P (Poa)
3 Putt Avoid.
SG: T (Diff.)
Driving Dist.
P3: 225+
P4: 450-500
P5: 600-650
Bogey Avoid.
Sand Saves
Prox: 175-200
8
13
12
38
19
121
33
21
49
101
135
4
57
8
Ranks based on last 24 rounds amongst the field. For a more detailed look into each stat, check out the Key Statistics Section.
Harris English (+10000) – DraftKings
At 35, Harris English is playing some of his best golf, highlighted by his 5th PGA Tour win this season at the Farmers Insurance Open, held at Torrey Pines (South Course)—a comparable course this week. He has three top 15s in his last four PGA Tour starts.
English performed well in the first two Majors this year, finishing T12 at the Masters and runner-up at the PGA Championship. His best U.S. Open finish was 3rd in 2021 at Torrey Pines, and he also placed T8 at last year’s U.S. Open at Los Angeles Country Club (North Course). Like many others, he played Oakmont in 2016, finishing T37.
English’s regional success includes a T2 at the 2020 Northern Trust (TPC Boston), a 2021 Travelers Championship win (TPC River Highlands, Connecticut), and a T11 at the Truist Championship (Philadelphia Cricket Club) this season.
SG: T2G
SG: OTT
SG: APP
SG: ATG
SG: P (Poa)
3 Putt Avoid.
SG: T (Diff.)
Driving Dist.
P3: 225+
P4: 450-500
P5: 600-650
Bogey Avoid.
Sand Saves
Prox: 175-200
36
46
28
139
161
3
24
115
123
57
21
11
20
67
Ranks based on last 24 rounds amongst the field. For a more detailed look into each stat, check out the Key Statistics Section.
Keegan Bradley (+10000) – DraftKings
Northeastern native Keegan Bradley, born in Vermont and a Boston Common Golf Team member, enters this Major in solid form with consecutive top 10 PGA Tour finishes. He’s made only one cut miss in 13 starts, though he missed the cut at the Masters and finished T8 at the PGA Championship.
Bradley’s recent U.S. Open results have been mixed, with a T32 in 2024, missed cut in 2023, and T7 in 2022. Regionally, he’s excelled with a 2023 Travelers Championship win (TPC River Highlands), T30 at the Truist Championship, and a 2018 BMW Championship victory at Aronimink Golf Club.
SG: T2G
SG: OTT
SG: APP
SG: ATG
SG: P (Poa)
3 Putt Avoid.
SG: T (Diff.)
Driving Dist.
P3: 225+
P4: 450-500
P5: 600-650
Bogey Avoid.
Sand Saves
Prox: 175-200
3
37
11
33
161
58
12
32
57
42
114
61
103
17
Ranks based on last 24 rounds amongst the field. For a more detailed look into each stat, check out the Key Statistics Section.
Taylor Pendrith (+12000) – DraftKings
Taylor Pendrith is coming off a T27 at the RBC Canadian Open, following strong recent finishes of T12 at the Memorial Tournament and T5 at the PGA Championship.
Pendrith’s U.S. Open results have varied, including a T16 last year at Pinehurst No. 2, missed cuts in 2021 and 2023, and a T23 in 2020 at Winged Foot. He also showed form at Torrey Pines earlier this season with a T7.
He has performed well in the Northeast, highlighted by a T8 at the 2022 BMW Championship (Wilmington Country Club).
SG: T2G
SG: OTT
SG: APP
SG: ATG
SG: P (Poa)
3 Putt Avoid.
SG: T (Diff.)
Driving Dist.
P3: 225+
P4: 450-500
P5: 600-650
Bogey Avoid.
Sand Saves
Prox: 175-200
40
11
50
127
15
72
23
18
139
72
61
59
150
24
Ranks based on last 24 rounds amongst the field. For a more detailed look into each stat, check out the Key Statistics Section.
Top 20
Shane Lowry (+130) – DraftKings
Shane Lowry arrives at this Major in excellent form, with five top-25 finishes in his last six events. His only recent setback was missing the cut at the PGA Championship due to struggles in short game and putting. Earlier this year, he finished T42 at the Masters.
Lowry’s U.S. Open performances include T19 in 2024 at Pinehurst No. 2 and T20 in 2023 at Los Angeles Country Club (North Course). He placed T2 at Oakmont in the 2016 U.S. Open.
He also has solid results at Northeastern venues with a T9 at the 2024 Travelers Championship, T19 in 2023, and T12 at the 2022 BMW Championship. In Pennsylvania, he finished T2 at the Truist Championship.
SG: T2G
SG: OTT
SG: APP
SG: ATG
SG: P (Poa)
3 Putt Avoid.
SG: T (Diff.)
Driving Dist.
P3: 225+
P4: 450-500
P5: 600-650
Bogey Avoid.
Sand Saves
Prox: 175-200
9
85
3
22
23
71
4
110
23
3
164
14
97
26
Ranks based on last 24 rounds amongst the field. For a more detailed look into each stat, check out the Key Statistics Section.
Patrick Cantlay (+140) – DraftKings
Patrick Cantlay comes into this Major with four top-25 finishes in his last five events. His recent PGA Championship was a struggle, missing the cut and facing challenges in all areas except driving.
Cantlay’s U.S. Open record is impressive with a T3 last year at Pinehurst No. 2, and multiple top-15 finishes in previous years. He also performs well at comparable courses, finishing T9 at Oak Hill (2023 PGA Championship) and T5 at Torrey Pines (South Course, 2025 Genesis Invitational).
Regionally, Cantlay has consistent success with top finishes at Northeastern courses including the Travelers Championship and BMW Championship, as well as a T4 at the Truist Championship.
SG: T2G
SG: OTT
SG: APP
SG: ATG
SG: P (Poa)
3 Putt Avoid.
SG: T (Diff.)
Driving Dist.
P3: 225+
P4: 450-500
P5: 600-650
Bogey Avoid.
Sand Saves
Prox: 175-200
21
7
7
44
158
84
14
24
29
25
70
10
49
6
Ranks based on last 24 rounds amongst the field. For a more detailed look into each stat, check out the Key Statistics Section.
Harris English (+225) – DraftKings
Keegan Bradley (+225) – DraftKings
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.
UFC 316: Julianna Peña vs. Kayla Harrison -625 O/U 4.5
The co-main event of UFC 316 features a highly anticipated women’s bantamweight title fight between reigning champion Julianna Peña and two-time Olympic judo gold medalist Kayla Harrison. Tonight’s bout takes place at the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey, and is generating major buzz due to the fighters’ contrasting backgrounds, styles, and the high stakes involved.
Fighter Profiles
Julianna Peña (13-5, 8-3 UFC)
Former two-time UFC bantamweight champion
Known for her aggressive pace, pressure, and strong clinch work
Has solid transitional grappling and effective ground striking
Notable wins include her shocking upset over Amanda Nunes
Kayla Harrison (18-1, 2-0 UFC)
Two-time Olympic gold medalist in judo
Former PFL champion with dominant grappling skills
Steadily improving striking, particularly from her southpaw stance
Holds wins over Holly Holm and Ketlen Vieira in the UFC
Fight Breakdown
Peña enters as a significant underdog, with odds ranging from +400 to +500, while Harrison is the overwhelming favorite at -625 to -800. The betting lines suggest that Harrison is expected to dominate, particularly in the grappling exchanges.
Peña’s best chance lies in making the fight a brawl, as Harrison has acknowledged that chaotic exchanges could favor the champion. However, Harrison’s superior clinch work and takedown ability make it unlikely that Peña will be able to dictate the fight’s pace.
Harrison’s most probable path to victory is through her grappling dominance. She has a strong positional game, particularly from half guard, and has shown an ability to control opponents with relentless pressure. Peña, while tough and resilient, has struggled against elite grapplers in the past, but she hasn’t been submitted since 2020.
Prediction
I liked Pena’s resilience that she has shown over the past few years against Amanda Nunes. While she will not win the striking or grappling battle, she can last the full five rounds and has proved it over her last four fights. I think that Harrison probably gets the win, but at the same time, she has only finished one out of her last four opponents. Harrison wins by decision more often than not, but let’s take the safe rout over 4.5 rounds.
Over 4.5 rounds +154 – 1 star
Bonus Play: Ariane De Silva +425 – 1 star – Ariane Da Silva (formerly Ariane Lipsky) came in a whopping six pounds overweight. I have to assume that she didn’t even really try to cut that much, and will have the weight advantage during this fight. Cong Wang mistakenly accepted the fight even though she will be smaller individule. Da Silva has a huge strength of opponent advantage over Cong, and she can fight both on her feet as well as on the mat. This number is much too big to pass up.
Date: Saturday, June 7, 2025 ⏰ Post Time:7:04 p.m. ET 📺 Broadcast: Fox 📡 Live Streaming: & Fox Sports app
Preview:
The 2025 Belmont Stakes, the final leg of the Triple Crown is upon us today at Saratoga Race Course instead of Belmont Park due to ongoing renovations. The race will be run at 1.25 miles instead of the traditional 1.5-mile distance. There are a total of eight horses in this race which is a bit lower than I had expected.
Key Contenders:
Journalism (8-5 favorite) – Won the Preakness Stakes after finishing second in the Kentucky Derby.
Sovereignty (2-1 odds) – Won the Kentucky Derby but skipped the Preakness.
Baeza (4-1 odds) – Finished third in the Kentucky Derby.
Rodriguez (6-1 odds) – Trained by Bob Baffert, missed the first two Triple Crown races due to a foot bruise.
Race Dynamics:
Journalism and Sovereignty are expected to be the top contenders, with their rivalry shaping the race.
Rodriguez and Crudo are expected to set the early pace, potentially disrupting the favorites.
The shorter distance at Saratoga could favor horses with tactical speed rather than pure stamina.
Weather:
The weather at the track will be a crisp 67 degrees with rain until about 2PM. The rain will clear up 2pm which is a good four to five hours before post time. I expect more of a wet track but not necessarily sloppy.
Predictions:
Nobody loves having to bet the favorites in horse racing, but I honestly think that this is a two horse race between the Kentucky Derby winning Sovereignty and the Preakness winner Journalism. I rate them both as equal being that Sovereignty had a longer layoff. Both of these horses have run the fastest Beyers speed figures of all the three year old thoroughbreds to date. Some say that Journalism would have beaten Sovereignty in the Kentucky Derby had this horse had a better trip. I am not 100% sure on that, but I do know that the six horse Baeza was also coming in to attempt a big finish and ended up third. I think that Baeza is worth a look with Flavien Prat as the Jockey. Prat, right now, is probably the best jockey in the field. I have a third spot reserved for Baeza as I think that he is the third best horse in this race. I will however have Baeza in a trifecta savor box with the other two favorites. The way that I will construct my ticket is to have the big exacta box with Journalism and Sovereignty. I will have Baeza at third with a few other combinations at the show spot as I think that the only other three horses that can hit the board are Rodriguez, Crudo, and Hill Road. Here is my ticket for a total of $150. Best of luck everyone!
Sports Betting - The OddsBreakers - Wagering - Handicapping
We have a HUGE show for you today! Patrick Gates is back to break down a MASSIVE Belmont Stakes! First, the guys get right into the NHL with some thoughts on the series and who might win the Conn Smythe. Next, we talk horse racing. Patrick and Kiev get into the weather, the favorites and sleepers for this HUGE race… We discuss how we are constructing out tickets as well as some thoughts on who is going to win this race. Then, Kiev goes solo to discuss some UFC 316. He talks the main card as well as a long shot that he like a lot in the under card. Plenty of Free Plays galore! Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
Use Promo Code Baseball2025 TO GET $100 OFF EVERY Baseball OR YEARLY PACKAGE or 50% OFF THE FIRST MONTH OF ANY MONTHLY PACKAGE for the rest of the 2025 season! Click here: https://theoddsbreakers.com/premium-plays/Offer expires December 31st 2025
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If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves! Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev at only $84 per month on a 1 year subscription!
You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help us out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits like free merch and plays!
We have a HUGE show for you today! Patrick Gates is back to break down a MASSIVE Belmont Stakes! First, the guys get right into the NHL with some thoughts on the series and who might win the Conn Smythe. Next, we talk horse racing. Patrick and Kiev get into the weather, the favorites and sleepers for this HUGE race. We discuss how we are constructing out tickets as well as some thoughts on who is going to win this race. Then, Kiev goes solo to discuss some UFC 316. He talks the main card as well as a long shot that he like a lot in the under card. Plenty of Free Plays galore! Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
Use Promo Code Baseball2025 TO GET $100 OFF EVERY Baseball OR YEARLY PACKAGE or 50% OFF THE FIRST MONTH OF ANY MONTHLY PACKAGE for the rest of the 2025 season! Click here: https://theoddsbreakers.com/premium-plays/Offer expires December 31st 2025
Sick of headaches in the morning after drinking? Get 20% off of our gummies that help get rid of those pesky hangovers right here! https://liqure.com/discount/ODDS
If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves! Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev at only $84 per month on a 1 year subscription!
You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help us out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits like free merch and plays!
The 157th running of the Belmont Stakes is set for Saturday, June 7th, continuing a legacy that dates back to 1867. As the final jewel of the Triple Crown, the Belmont follows the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes, offering one last—and often most demanding—test for the nation’s top 3-year-olds.
Often called the “Test of the Champion,” the Belmont Stakes is steeped in tradition and excitement. From the iconic blanket of white carnations draped over the winner to the playing of “New York, New York” before the gates open, the race captures the spirit and history of American horse racing. It’s where legends like Secretariat made history with his record-breaking 31-length victory in 1973, and where recent stars like American Pharoah (2015) and Justify (2018) sealed their Triple Crown triumphs.
While the race is traditionally held at Belmont Park over the demanding distance of 1 1/2 miles, the 2025 edition will once again be run at Saratoga Race Course, covering a slightly shorter 1 1/4 miles due to the track’s smaller dimensions. After this, the Belmont Stakes will return to its iconic home at Belmont Park in 2026.
For deeper insights, historical context, and expert picks, don’t miss our latest podcast episode previewing this year’s Belmont Stakes.
— The OddsBreakers (@theoddsbreakers) June 5, 2025
Race Information:
Date: June 7th, 2025
Track: Saratoga Race Course
Location: Saratoga Springs, New York, United States
Event Grade: Grade I
Race: 13
Post Time: 7:04 PM ET
Length: 1 1/4 Mile
Purse: $2,000,000
Division: Open | Three Years Old
Surface: Dirt
Exacta ($1), Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Double ($1) 13 & 14, Leg B Acorn, NY Met, Woody Stephens/Belmont Doubles, Leg F 2-Day Pick 6
TV Schedule:
FS1 – 10:30 AM – 2:30 PM ET
FOX – 2:30 PM – 7:30 PM ET
Previous Winners & Odds:
2024: Dornoch
Odds: 15-1
2023: Arcangelo
Odds: 8-1
2022: Mo Donegal
Odds: 5-2
2021: Essential Quality
Odds: 2-1
2020: Tiz the Law
Odds: 6-5
2019: Sir Winston
Odds: 12-1
2018: Justify *
Odds: 4-5
* Justify was a Tripple Crown Winner
Trainer, Jockey, & Owner Kentucky Derby Records:
Most Wins by a Trainer:
8 – James G. Rowe Sr. (1883, 1884, 1901, 1904, 1907, 1908, 1910, 1913)
Most Wins by a Jockey:
6 – Jim McLaughlin (1882, 1883, 1884, 1886, 1887, 1888) and Eddie Arcaro (1941, 1942, 1945, 1948, 1952, 1955)
Most Wins by an Owner:
6 – Belair Stud (1930, 1932, 1935, 1936, 1939, 1955) and James R. Keene (1879, 1901, 1904, 1907, 1908, 1910)
Belmont Stakes Historical Post Position Stats:
Here are the 2025 Belmont Stakes post positions, along with historical data for each gate since the starting gate was introduced to the race in 1905:
Post Position
Starts
Wins
Win %
Wins Since 2000
Last Winner
2025 Belmont Entrant
1
118
24
20.3%
2
Justify (2018)
Hill Road
2
118
13
11.0%
2
Essential Quality (2021)
Sovereignty
3
116
16
13.8%
4
Arcangelo (2023)
Rodriguez
4
110
10
9.1%
2
Summer Bird (2009)
Uncaged
5
102
15
14.7%
2
American Pharoah (2015)
Crudo
6
97
9
9.3%
2
Dornoch (2024)
Baeza
7
84
14
16.7%
3
Sir Winston (2019)
Journalism
8
74
7
9.5%
2
Tiz the Law (2020)
Heart of Honor
9
57
4
7.0%
2
Afleet Alex (2005)
None
10
40
1
2.5%
0
Thunder Gulch (1995)
None
11
28
3
10.7%
2
Tonalist (2014)
None
12
11
1
9.1%
1
Palace Malice (2013)
None
13
7
1
14.3%
1
Creator (2016)
None
14
3
0
0.0%
0
None
None
15
1
0
0.0%
0
None
None
Field:
Post
Horse Name
Jockey
Trainer
Odds
1
Hill Road
Irad Ortiz, Jr.
Chad Brown
10-1
2
Sovereignty
Junior Alvarado
Bill Mott
2-1
3
Rodriguez
Mike Smith
Bob Baffert
6-1
4
Uncaged
Luis Saez
Todd Pletcher
30-1
5
Crudo
John Velazquez
Todd Pletcher
15-1
6
Baeza
Flavien Prat
John Shirreffs
4-1
7
Journalism
Umberto Rispoli
Michael McCarthy
8-5
8
Heart of Honor
Saffie Osborne
Jamie Osborne
30-1
Horse Preview
Hill Road
Name: Hill Road
ML Odds: 10-1
Owner(s): Amo Racing USA
Trainer: Chad Brown
Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr.
Dam: Exotic Notion (Lemon Drop Kid)
Sire: Quality Road (Elusive Quality)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
5
2
0
2
2025
2
1
0
1
2024
3
1
0
1
Saratoga Race Course
0
0
0
0
Date-Track
Length
Race
Results
10May25-Aqueduct
1 1/8 Miles
GIII Peter Pan
1st
8Mar25-Tampa
1 1/16 Miles
GIII Tampa Bay Derby
3rd
1Nov24-Del Mar
1 1/16 Miles
G1 BC Juvenile
3rd
Sovereignty
Name: Sovereignty
ML Odds: 2-1
Owner(s): Godolphin LLC
Trainer: Bill Mott
Jockey: Junior Alvarado
Dam: Crowned (Bernardini)
Sire: Into Mischief (Harlan’s Holiday)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
6
3
2
0
2025
3
2
1
0
2024
3
1
1
0
Saratoga Race Course
1
0
0
0
Date-Track
Length
Race
Results
3May25-Churchill Downs
1 1/4 Miles
GI Kentucky Derby
1st
29Mar2-Gulfstream Park
1 1/8 Miles
GI Florida Derby
2nd
1Mar25-Gulfstream Park
1 1/16 Miles
GII Fountain of Youth
1st
Rodriguez
Name: Rodriguez
ML Odds: 6-1
Owner(s): SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, et al.
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Mike Smith
Dam: Cayala (Cherokee Run)
Sire: Authentic (Into Mischief)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
5
2
2
1
2025
4
2
1
1
2024
1
0
1
0
Saratoga Race Course
0
0
0
0
Date-Track
Length
Race
Results
5Apr25-Aqueduct
1 1/8 Miles
GII Wood Memorial Stakes
1st
1Mar25-Santa Anita
1 1/16 Miles
GII San Felipe Stakes
3rd
1Feb25-Santa Anita
1 Mile
GIII Robert B Lewis
2nd
Uncaged
Name: Uncaged
ML Odds: 30-1
Owner(s): WinStar Farm LLC and Repole Stable
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Luis Saez
Dam: Dark Nile (Pioneerof the Nile)
Sire: Curlin (Smart Strike)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
4
2
0
0
2025
3
1
0
0
2024
1
1
0
0
Saratoga Race Course
1
1
0
0
Date-Track
Length
Race
Results
10May25-Aqueduct
1 1/8 Miles
GIII Peter Pan
6th
6Apr25-Aqueduct
1 Mile
OC 100k/N1X-N
1st
2Mar25-Gulfstream Park
6 Furlongs
OC 75k/N1X-N
4th
Crudo
Name: Crudo
ML Odds: 15-1
Owner(s): Bobby Flay and James Ventura
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: John Velazquez
Dam: Blossomed (Deputy Minister)
Sire: Justify (Scat Daddy)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
3
2
0
0
2025
3
2
0
0
2024
0
0
0
0
Saratoga Race Course
0
0
0
0
Date-Track
Length
Race
Results
17May25-Pimlico
1 1/16 Miles
Sir Barton Stakes 100k
1st
19Apr25-Keeneland
7 Furlongs
Md Sp Wt 110k
1st
8Feb25-Gulfstream Park
6 Furlongs
Md Sp Wt 70k
4th
Baeza
Name: Baeza
ML Odds: 4-1
Owner(s): C R K Stable LLC and Grandview Equine
Trainer: John Shirreffs
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Dam: Puca (Big Brown)
Sire: McKinzie (Street Sense)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
5
1
2
1
2025
4
1
2
1
2024
1
0
0
0
Saratoga Race Course
0
0
0
0
Date-Track
Length
Race
Results
3May25-Churchill Downs
1 1/4 Miles
GI Kentucky Derby
3rd
5Apr25-Santa Anita
1 1/8 Miles
GI Santa Anita Derby
2nd
14Feb25-Santa Anita
1 Mile
Md Sp Wt 60k
1st
Journalism
Name: Journalism
ML Odds: 8-5
Owner(s): Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners, Bridlewood Farm, Don Alberto Stable, et al.
Trainer: Michael McCarthy
Jockey: Umberto Rispoli
Dam: Mopotism (Uncle Mo)
Sire: Curlin (Smart Strike)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
7
5
1
1
2025
4
3
1
0
2024
3
2
0
1
Saratoga Race Course
0
0
0
0
Date-Track
Length
Race
Results
17May25-Pimlico
1 3/16 Miles
GI Preakness Stakes
1st
3May25-Churchill Downs
1 1/4 Miles
GI Kentucky Derby
2nd
5Apr25-Santa Anita
1 1/8 Miles
GI Santa Anita Derby
1st
Heart of Honor (GB)
Name: Heart of Honor (GB)
ML Odds: 30-1
Owner(s): Jim And Claire Limited
Trainer: Jamie Osborne
Jockey: Saffie Osborne
Dam: Ruby Love*Chi (Scat Daddy)
Sire: Honor A. P. (Honor Code)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
7
2
4
0
2025
5
1
3
0
2024
2
1
1
0
Saratoga Race Course
0
0
0
0
Date-Track
Length
Race
Results
17May25-Pimlico
1 3/16 Miles
GI Preakness Stakes
5th
5Apr25-Meydan (UAE)
1 3/16 Miles
GII UAE Derby
2nd
21Feb25-Meydan (UAE)
1 3/16 Miles
Al Bastakiya Stakes
2nd
Previous Races Against Fellow Entrants:
Date-Track
Race
Results
May 10th, 2025 – PIM
GI Preakness
(1st) Journalism, (5th) Heart of Honor
May 10th, 2025 – BAQ
GIII Peter Pan Stakes
(1st) Hill Road, (6th) Uncaged
May 3rd, 2025 – CD
GI Kentucky Derby
(1st) Sovereignty, (2nd) Journalism, (3rd) Baeza
April 5th, 2025 – SA
GI Santa Anita Derby
(1st) Journalism, (2nd) Baeza
March 11th, 2025 – SA
GII San Felipe Stakes
(1st) Journalism, (3rd) Rodriguez
January 4th, 2025 – SA
Md Sp Wt 60k
(1st) Rodriguez, (2nd) Baeza
Projected Pace:
Pacesetter
(3) Rodriguez
(5) Crudo
Press the Pace/ Stalkers
(4) Baeza
(6) Uncaged
Closers
(1) Hill Road
(2) Sovereignty
(7) Journalism
(8) Heart of Honor
Race Breakdown
When handicapping this year’s Belmont Stakes, the race feels like it runs through three—maybe four—serious contenders. But before we dive into the top threats, let’s first break down the horses I’ll be against on race day: Hill Road, Uncaged, and Heart of Honor.
Tosses
Hill Road made his U.S. debut with promise, finishing third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf and later winning the Peter Pan Stakes. While the Peter Pan has produced past Belmont winners, I’m not convinced Hill Road possesses the late kick or stamina to match the elite closers in this field. He’s improved, but not enough to factor against this group.
Uncaged hasn’t progressed since his debut win at Saratoga last summer—that remains his highest speed figure. He finished sixth in the Peter Pan and seems better suited to muddy tracks, where both his wins came. Unless the skies open up on Saturday, he looks completely outclassed.
Heart of Honor was fifth in the Preakness in his North American debut but was never a serious factor. While he’s been consistent overseas, he lacks the cruising speed and closing ability needed to keep up with this field. He’s an easy toss for me.
Exotic Players
Crudo is lightly raced but interesting. He’s won back-to-back starts, including the Sir Barton Stakes on Preakness Day, and has shown steady improvement each time out. He’s bred for the distance—his sire Justify won the Belmont en route to a Triple Crown—and while he’s untested against top-level stakes company, he’s trending the right way. A logical underneath player.
Rodriguez could be dangerous if the race shape falls his way. He won the Wood Memorial in front-running fashion and has had time to recover from a minor setback that kept him out of the Derby and Preakness. If the pace is more moderate than expected, he could steal it on the front end. A live longshot with a proven foundation.
Main Contenders
The top tier features Sovereignty, Baeza, and Journalism—the three most credentialed runners in this field. Sovereignty enters off his Kentucky Derby win, Baeza finished a strong third after a wide trip, and Journalism comes off a gritty Preakness score. Any of them could win with the right setup, but with all three likely to take significant money, I’m more inclined to use them in exotics than single out one as a clear winner.
Race 12: #2 Integration, #4 Carson’s Run, #6 Spirit of St Louis
Race 13: #2 Sovereignty, #7 Journalism
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.