Kansas City Royals' Carlos Santana (41) is congratulated by teammate Salvador Perez (13) after hitting a go-ahead three-run home run during the seventh inning of a baseball game against the Detroit Tigers at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, Mo., Saturday, July 24, 2021. (AP Photo/Colin E. Braley)
We have a GREAT show for you today! Another weekend of NFL & College Football in the books, and now it’s time to recap and do some analysis! First, Kiev recaps the weekend with the good, the bad, and the ugly. Next, we talk some final scores with brief box score analysis. Then, Kiev talks about NFL & College Football misleading final scores & betting spots for next week. Who could let down? Who could bet flat? Who has long or short rest? After that, we give out a Free Play for the upcoming weekend. Finally, D-Nasty comes on to talk some fantasy football sleepers. Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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Kiev O’Neil’s Sports Betting Stats and Records!
54% Lifetime College &NFL Football ATS/Props/Totals
51% 2024 College Football & NFL -34U (Bad season)
56% 139-109-5 up 22 units in the 2023 NFL Season!
2024 MLB Season 111-93-11 up 8.3U
2023 MLB Season 146-123-7 up 11U
2023/2024 College Basketball up 9U
63% for 2022/2023 NBA sides and totals! 22-13 up 6.5 units. 14% ROI
55% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 5.21% ROI
56% 2022/2023 NFL Season 136-109-11 in Sides/Totals/Teasers/Season props up 38.5U
55% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 4.75% ROI
63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!
54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball 3% ROI
38% Lifetime UFC On All Plays 3% ROI
62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!
Quarterback Duel: Iowa State’s Rocco Becht is red-hot, completing 95% of his passes last week and already racking up 6 total TDs this season. Iowa’s Mark Gronowski, a transfer from South Dakota State, is still finding his rhythm after missing spring camp. He threw for just 44 yards in his debut but added a rushing TD.
Ground Game vs. Air Raid: Iowa rushed for 310 yards in Week 1, led by Xavier Williams with 122 yards. Iowa State, meanwhile, is leaning into Becht’s arm and a deep receiving corps.
Turnover Battle: The team that wins the turnover margin has won every Cy-Hawk game since 2016. Iowa State enters with a +2 margin; Iowa is -1.
Recent Trends: The road team has won 4 of the last 5 matchups. Iowa has taken 7 of the last 10 overall, but Iowa State won last year by a single point.
🏈 Iowa vs Iowa State – Matchup Data (Sept 6, 2025)
Category
Iowa Hawkeyes
Iowa State Cyclones
Record
1–0
2–0
Points/Game
34.0
39.5
Yards/Game (Total)
372.0 (310 rush, 62 pass)
428.5 (98 rush, 330.5 pass)
Turnover Margin
-1
+2
QB
Mark Gronowski (44 pass yds, 1 rush TD)
Rocco Becht (95% comp, 6 TDs)
Top RB
Xavier Williams (122 yds)
Carson Hansen (61 yds)
Top WR
Kaleb Brown (2 rec, 28 yds)
Jayden Higgins (9 rec, 212 yds, 3 TDs)
Defensive Strength
Run defense (allowed 2.9 YPC)
Pass rush (7 sacks)
Weather Impact
78°F, 10 mph wind, slight chance of rain
Slight wind advantage for deep throws
Vegas Line
Iowa State -3.5
Win Probability
39.5%
60.5%
💸 Betting Trends – Iowa vs Iowa State (Sept 6, 2025)
Trend Category
Iowa Hawkeyes
Iowa State Cyclones
ATS Record (2025)
0–1
2–0
ATS Last 5 Non-Conf Games
1–4
4–1
ATS Head-to-Head (Last 4)
2–2
2–2
Over/Under Record (2025)
0–1
1–1
Over/Under Last 4 H2H
1 Over / 3 Under
1 Over / 3 Under
Road ATS vs ISU (Last 6)
6–0
0–6
Spread Line
Iowa State -3.5
Iowa State -3.5
Total Points Line
42.5
42.5
Moneyline
+142
-170
Implied Win Probability
41.3%
63.0%
Prediction:
If you are actually using the current 2025 stats on these teams, then just forget it. I love playing the dog at 3 or better in this game. There isn’t even close to enough data from this season to understand how this game is going to go. Over the last 5 years, the dog has covered four times here. Lots of people think that Iowa had a bad showing last week. What people forget is that coach Kirk Ferentz doesn’t pull the real playbook out until this game. This has been the way the Hawkeye’s have done it for years. Iowa State was very fortunate to get by Kansas State two weeks ago. They took care of the ball, and that is what led them in. It wasn’t their skill or playmakers. I can’t give the Clones a three point home field advantage here as there will be plenty of Hawkeye fans at this game. The Betting market forgets just how well Iowa runs the ball and controls the clock. This game will be won at the line of scrimmage. I think that both teams are pretty close to equal, I will take the dog in this matchup.
Iowa +3.5 – 2 stars
Bowling Green vs Cincinnati -23.5 O/U 45.5
Prediction:
I like betting on teams that lost a tough game against a good opponent. The Bearcats had a tough environment last week playing Nebraska at Arrowhead stadium in Kansas City. Good cover and great effort for the Bearcats. I wasn’t overly impressed with Bowling Green playing a bad team like Lafayette. This MAC team struggled to score most of the game against Kids that won’t be playing division 1 football. The Falcons ranked 130th in returning production from 2024. They have a new coach in Eddie George. I think that George could turn out to be a good football coach, but he is not ready to play a power four team. The Bearcats rank 22nd in returning production from 2024. Cincinnati quarterback Brendan Sorsby is a solid quarterback who last season was 64% with a 18/7 TD to Interception ratio. I think this is a spot where the Bearcats get right and win by some good margin.
