Premium Selections over at http://oddsbreakers.com
2 Free Selections:
WNBA: Mercury/Sun
MLB: Astros/A’s
Go check out @theoddsbreakers – Tons of free content!!
2025 Travelers Championship Preview & Picks
The PGA Tour heads to Cromwell, Connecticut this week for the 2025 Travelers Championship, the final Signature Event of the season.
TPC River Highlands may not boast the length of some other tour stops, but it consistently delivers drama thanks to its risk-reward layout and birdie-friendly conditions. With a stacked field on hand and a winning score likely approaching 20-under par, finding the right statistical edges is key to building strong betting cards.
In this preview, we’ll break down the course setup, highlight the key stats to focus on, and reveal our favorite betting picks and values for the week. Let’s dive in.
Tournament Information:
Social Media:
Course Information:
Course Architect:
Comparable Courses:
- Colonial Country Club – Charles Schwab Challenge – RESULTS
- TPC Deere Run – John Deere Classic – RESULTS
- TPC Sawgrass (THE PLAYERS Stadium Course) – THE PLAYERS Championship – RESULTS
- Harbour Town Golf Links – RBC Heritage – RESULTS
Comparable Location (Cromwell, Connecticut):
Designer Link (Pete Dye (1982)):
- PGA WEST (Pete Dye Stadium Course) – Pete Dye (1986) – The American Express
- TPC Sawgrass (THE PLAYERS Stadium Course) – Pete Dye (1980) – THE PLAYERS Championship
- TPC Louisiana – Pete Dye (2004) – Zurich Classic of New Orleans
- Harbour Town Golf Links – Pete Dye (1969) – RBC Heritage
Comparable Yardage (6,844 Yards):
Comparable Greens (Bentgrass / Poa annua .120”):
Comparable Average Green Size (5,000 sq. ft.):
TV Information (all times ET):
Weather:
Course/ Tournament History:
TPC River Highlands itself has a rich history. Originally opened in 1928 as Middletown Golf Club, the course underwent a significant redesign by Pete Dye in 1984 and a later refinement by Bobby Weed in 1989. The current layout plays as a par 70 and stretches just over 6,800 yards—short by modern TOUR standards, but no less demanding. What it lacks in length, it makes up for with narrow fairways, deep rough, well-placed water hazards, and small, undulating greens. The course consistently rewards precise iron play, course management, and a hot putter.
One of the tournament’s defining features is its dramatic closing stretch. Holes 15 through 18 have played host to some of the most exciting finishes on TOUR. The driveable par-4 15th and the risk-reward par-5 13th create prime scoring chances, setting up leaderboard shakeups down the stretch. This combination of scoring opportunities and pressure-packed holes has led to unforgettable moments, including Jim Furyk’s record-setting 58 in 2016 and Jordan Spieth’s walk-off bunker hole-out to win in a playoff in 2017.
During Tuesday’s practice round at the Travelers Championship, PGA TOUR players and caddies take part in a fun tradition known as the “Umbrella at 15 ½” Challenge. This unique hole, positioned between the 15th and 16th at TPC River Highlands, features an 85-yard shot aimed at a floating 40-foot Travelers umbrella in the middle of a pond. Each participant gets just one attempt, with the closest shot earning $10,000 for the charity of their choice. While it adds a light-hearted touch to tournament week, an interesting trend has emerged—since the challenge began in 2010, no winner of the Umbrella Challenge has gone on to win the Travelers Championship in the same year.
Previous Tournament Venues:
| Duration | Course | Location: |
| 1984-Present | TPC River Highlands | Cromwell, Connecticut |
| 1952-1983 | Wethersfield Country Club | Wethersfield, Connecticut |
Previous Tournament Names:
Tournament Records:
- 72-Hole Record:
- 257, Keegan Bradley (2023)
- 18-Hole Record:
- 58, Jim Furyk (final round, 2016)
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
Originally crafted by Pete Dye in 1982, TPC River Highlands features a Par 70 layout, comprising four Par 3s, twelve Par 4s, and two Par 5s.
TPC River Highlands is one of the shortest courses on the PGA Tour, measuring just 6,844 yards—making it the third shortest out of 44 Tour stops. The fairways are relatively narrow, ranking 12th in tightness, with an average width of 30 yards. Greens are also on the smaller side at approximately 5,000 square feet. With only 69 bunkers on the property (18th fewest on Tour), sand isn’t a major hazard this week.
The course features four Par 3s ranging from 158 to 223 yards, with two falling in the 200–225 yard range. Only one of them—No. 16—played over par last year, with a scoring average of +0.043.
No. 5, 223 Yards, Par 3: A challenging par 3 with a long carry over water to a green surrounded by bunkers. The green slopes from back to front.
No. 8, 202 Yards, Par 3: A picturesque par 3 with a pond in front and bunkers surrounding the green. Club selection is crucial due to the prevailing wind.
No. 11, 158 Yards, Par 3: A short par 3 over water to a green surrounded by bunkers. Accuracy is essential.
No. 16, 171 Yards, Par 3: This scenic 171-yard, par 3 requires a well struck mid iron to clear the forced carry over water and stop the ball on the narrow green. The green has a lot of slope in it and pin locations can be difficult. The wind can play a significant role in club selection.
TPC River Highlands also includes twelve Par 4s, seven of which fall between 400 and 450 yards. No. 15 is the shortest at 296 yards, while No. 4 stretches to 481 yards. The toughest Par 4s in 2024 were No. 4 and No. 12, both averaging 4.014 strokes.
No. 15, 296 Yards, Par 4: A drivable par 4 with a risk-reward element. One of the most exciting holes on the PGA TOUR, the 296-yard, par 4, hole No. 15 at TPC River Highlands forces players to make good decisions. There is water to the left and sand to the right. Anywhere from a 2 to 6 can be recorded on a player’s scorecard when walking off this green.
No. 17, 431 Yards, Par 4: Intimidation takes on a new meaning when standing on the tee box at No. 17. Players must fit their shot between the large lake that covers the entire right side and the difficult fairway bunker on the left. A good drive is just the first part to leaving this hole with a par. The approach shot will need to carry the water the entire way, and with any wind, club selection is of most importance. Crowds are huge on this hole because they know it can be the breaking point in the tournament.
No. 18, 444 Yards, Par 4: An absolute perfect finishing hole that allows players to make birdie if they play this par 4 well. At 444 yards, a good drive leaves a mid to short iron approach to a green encompassed by a throng of spectators.
There are just two Par 5s on the layout—No. 6 and No. 13—and both played under par last year. The easiest hole on the course was the sixth, with a scoring average of 4.577.
No. 6, 574 Yards, Par 5: The first par 5 on the course features a wide fairway but narrows near the green, which is reachable in two for long hitters. Water and bunkers protect the green.
No. 13, 523 Yards, Par 5: A reachable par 5 for long hitters. The fairway narrows near the green, which is guarded by bunkers and a steep slope at the back.
Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 15-18
Key Statistics:
The Travelers Championship takes place at TPC River Highlands. Here are the key statistics to keep an eye on for this week’s event.
| Statistics | PGA Tour Average | TPC River Highlands |
| Driving Distance (Yards) | 284.10 | 280.44 |
| Driving Accuracy | 62% | 68% |
| GIR Percentage | 66% | 68% |
| Avg GIR Prox. to Hole (Feet) | 29.25 | 28.00 |
| Scrambling Percentage | 57% | 58% |
| Avg 3 Putts / Round | 0.55 | 0.49 |
According to DataGolf, this is the favored skill set at TPC River Highlands.
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
- Success at TPC River Highlands starts with strong tee positioning. While distance matters, accuracy is equally critical on this relatively short but tactical layout.
- Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
- Scottie Scheffler
- Luke Clanton
- Kevin Yu
- Rory McIlroy
- Daniel Berger
- Corey Conners
- Ludvig Åberg
- Patrick Cantlay
- Sungjae Im
- Maverick McNealy
- Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Strokes Gained: Approach
- A sharp iron game is essential this week. With small greens and tight targets, players must dial in their approach shots to generate birdie looks.
- Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
- Scottie Scheffler
- Sepp Straka
- Shane Lowry
- Viktor Hovland
- Daniel Berger
- Collin Morikawa
- Russell Henley
- Ryan Fox
- Patrick Cantlay
- Bud Cauley
- Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Strokes Gained: Around the Green
- With greens averaging just 5,000 sq. ft., players will inevitably miss a few. A strong short game will be key to saving par and staying in contention.
- Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
- Sungjae Im
- Keegan Bradley
- Jason Day
- Sam Stevens
- Russell Henley
- Tommy Fleetwood
- Ryan Gerard
- Si Woo Kim
- Min Woo Lee
- Mackenzie Hughes
- Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass & Poa Annua)
- The putting surfaces are a mix of Bentgrass and Poa annua. Performance on this specific grass combo often separates contenders from the rest.
- Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
- Sam Burns
- Matt Fitzpatrick
- Aaron Rai
- Xander Schauffele
- Harry Hall
- Brian Campbell
- Harris English
- Mackenzie Hughes
- Sam Stevens
- Scottie Scheffler
- Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Par 3 Scoring: 200-225 Yards
- Two of the four Par 3s at TPC River Highlands fall in this yardage range. Solid long-iron play will be a quiet key to gaining strokes.
- Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
- Viktor Hovland
- Scottie Scheffler
- Kevin Yu
- Ryan Gerard
- Mackenzie Hughes
- Sam Stevens
- Russell Henley
- Ben Griffin
- Si Woo Kim
- Wyndham Clark
- Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Par 4 Scoring: 400-450 Yards
- Seven of the twelve Par 4’s at TPC River Highlands range between 400-450 Yards.
- Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
- Tommy Fleetwood
- Scottie Scheffler
- Patrick Cantlay
- Andrew Novak
- Viktor Hovland
- Tony Finau
- Robert MacIntyre
- Xander Schauffele
- Harry Hall
- Nick Taylor
- Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Birdies or Better Gained
- Low scores are required here—four of the last five champions have reached at least -19. Players must cash in on every opportunity.
- Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
- Scottie Scheffler
- Matti Schmid
- Rory McIlroy
- Justin Thomas
- Luke Clanton
- Viktor Hovland
- Sam Burns
- Akshay Bhatia
- Sepp Straka
- Harry Hall
- Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Proximity Gained: 125-175 Yards
- Above is the approach shot distribution chart from last year’s event (via DataGolf). Most approach shots come from the 125-175 yard range at a volume much higher than the PGA Tour average.
- Leaders in Proximity Gained: 125-150 Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
- Collin Morikawa
- Tom Kim
- Gary Woodland
- Lucas Glover
- Sepp Straka
- J.J. Spaun
- Stephan Jaeger
- Thomas Detry
- Maverick McNealy
- Keegan Bradley
- Leaders in Proximity Gained: 150-175 Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
- Viktor Hovland
- Xander Schauffele
- Corey Conners
- Daniel Berger
- Hideki Matsuyama
- Tom Kim
- Scottie Scheffler
- Akshay Bhatia
- Shane Lowry
- Ryan Fox
- Leaders in Proximity Gained: 125-150 Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green (Length less than 7,200 yards)
- Compact layouts like this test every aspect of a player’s game. Who thrives when length isn’t the only factor?
- Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
- Scottie Scheffler
- Justin Thomas
- Rory McIlroy
- Patrick Cantlay
- Ludvig Åberg
- Aaron Rai
- Russell Henley
- Sepp Straka
- Shane Lowry
- Tom Kim
- Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Strokes Gained: Total (Pete Dye)
- TPC River Highlands is a Dye design—players who consistently perform on his tracks have a distinct edge.
- Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
- Scottie Scheffler
- Justin Thomas
- Brian Harman
- Hideki Matsuyama
- Tom Hoge
- Rory McIlroy
- Wyndham Clark
- Sepp Straka
- Daniel Berger
- Xander Schauffele
- Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Comparable Courses and Event History
- Looking at the Data Golf Course History Tool, prior experience at the TPC River Highlands has proven to be advantageous.
- Leaders in this category in the last (SG last 5 editions):
- Patrick Cantlay
- Brian Harman
- Xander Schauffele
- Scottie Scheffler
- Rory McIlroy
- Keegan Bradley
- Viktor Hovland
- Joohyung Kim
- Sungjae Im
- Tony Finau
- Leaders in this category in the last (SG last 5 editions):
The Field:
The 2025 Travelers Championship will feature a field of 72 players, with 26 of the top 30 in the Official World Golf Ranking set to compete.
Basis of qualification for each entrant this week:
- Top 50 on Prior Year’s FedExCup Points List
- Aon Next 10 (projected through the U.S. Open)
- Aon Swing 5 (projected through the U.S. Open)
- Current Year Tournament Winners, not including Additional Events
- Current FedExCup Points List (projected through the U.S. Open)
- Sponsor Exemptions – Members not otherwise exempt
Previous Winners in the Field (Event):
- Scottie Scheffler (2024), Keegan Bradley (2023), Xander Schauffele (2022), Harris English (2021), Jordan Spieth (2017)
Debutants in the Field:
- Alexander Noren, Jacob Bridgeman, Joe Highsmith, Luke Clanton, Matthias Schmid, Max Greyserman, Ryan Fox, Ryan Gerard
Exemptions:
- Luke Clanton – Members not otherwise exempt
- Rickie Fowler – Members not otherwise exempt
- Gary Woodland – Members not otherwise exempt
- Tom Kim – Members not otherwise exempt
Notable Withdraws/ Changes:
- N/A
Tee Times & Groupings:
The Odds:
Here are the current favorites for this week’s event:
| Golfer | Odds | Last 5 Finishes on the PGA TOUR (Recent -> Past) | Last 5 Finishes at the Travelers Championship (Recent -> Past) |
| Scottie Scheffler | +280 | T7-WON-T4-WON-WON | WON-T4-T13-T47-MC |
| Rory McIlroy | +1200 | T19-MC-T47-T7-T12 | T7-T19-T11-T12-T17 |
| Xander Schauffele | +1600 | T12-T25-T28-T11-T18 | T13-T19-WON-T20-MC |
| Collin Morikawa | +1600 | T23-T20-T50-T17-MC | T13-MC-MC-T36 |
| Patrick Cantlay | +2200 | MC-T12-MC-T4-T13 | T5-T4-T13-T13-T11 |
| Ludvig Aberg | +2200 | MC-T13-T16-MC-T60 | T27-T24 |
| Justin Thomas | +2800 | MC-T31-MC-T2-WON | T5-T9-MC-T36-T56 |
| Viktor Hovland | +3000 | 3-T25-T28-T54-T13 | T20-T29-T11-T54 |
Facts & Figures:
Tournament Props:
Playoff:
- Will There Be a Playoff at the Travelers Championship? (Yes +350 / No -500)
Playoffs have been a frequent part of the drama at the Travelers Championship, with two of the last four editions requiring extra holes to crown a winner. The most recent came just last year, when Scottie Scheffler edged out Tom Kim in a sudden-death finish. Since the tournament moved to TPC River Highlands in 1984, there have been 14 playoffs—highlighting just how often this event comes down to the wire.
Hole-in-One:
- Will There Be A Hole-in-One at the Travelers Championship? (Yes -120/ No -120)
There hasn’t been a hole-in-one at the Travelers Championship in the past two editions, with the most recent ace coming from Rory McIlroy on the 8th hole back in 2023. While TPC River Highlands does offer several scoring opportunities on its Par 3s, recent history shows that aces have been tough to come by.
Wire to Wire Winner:
- Will There Be a Wire-to-Wire Winner at the Travelers Championship? (Yes +700)
Wire-to-wire winners have been extremely rare at the Travelers Championship, with only two players accomplishing the feat in tournament history. Gene Littler was the first to do it in 1959, followed by Tim Norris in 1982. It’s been over four decades since a player led from start to finish, highlighting just how difficult it is to maintain the lead all four rounds at TPC River Highlands.
Recent Horses for Courses (TPC River Highlands):
| Travelers Championship | Travelers Championship | Travelers Championship | Travelers Championship | Travelers Championship | |||
| TPC River Highlands | TPC River Highlands | TPC River Highlands | TPC River Highlands | TPC River Highlands | |||
| Golfer | Events Played | SG: Total (Event) | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2019 |
| Patrick Cantlay | 10 | +41.85 | T5 | T4 | T13 | T13 | T11 |
| Rory McIlroy | 5 | +24.35 | – | T7 | T19 | – | T11 |
| Xander Schauffele | 6 | +35.92 | T13 | T19 | WON | – | T20 |
| Ludvig Aberg | 2 | +7.18 | T27 | T24 | – | – | – |
| Viktor Hovland | 4 | +15.49 | T20 | T29 | – | – | – |
| Adam Scott | 4 | +12.17 | T39 | T19 | – | T13 | – |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 2 | +11.24 | T23 | T13 | – | – | – |
| Scottie Scheffler | 5 | +33.97 | WON | T4 | T13 | T47 | MC |
| Brian Harman | 14 | +36.98 | T9 | T2 | T8 | T5 | MC |
| Justin Thomas | 9 | +13.65 | T5 | T9 | – | – | MC |
Recent Donkeys for Courses (TPC River Highlands):
| Travelers Championship | Travelers Championship | Travelers Championship | Travelers Championship | Travelers Championship | |||
| TPC River Highlands | TPC River Highlands | TPC River Highlands | TPC River Highlands | TPC River Highlands | |||
| Golfer | Events Played | SG: Total (Event) | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2019 |
| Davis Thompson | 2 | -1.56 | – | MC | – | MC | – |
| J.J. Spaun | 6 | -14.27 | – | MC | MC | T47 | MC |
| Max Homa | 6 | -7.63 | T61 | MC | – | MC | MC |
| Byeong Hun An | 5 | +1.74 | W/D | MC | – | MC | T46 |
| Michael Kim | 7 | -7.87 | – | T38 | – | MC | MC |
| Christiaan Bezuidenhout | 3 | -5.16 | T23 | MC | MC | – | – |
Previous Winners Scores, Prices, and Strokes Gained (Rank at Tournament):
- 2024: Scottie Scheffler (-22)
- Price: 5-1
| SG: Off the Tee | SG: Tee to Green | SG: Approach | SG: Around the Green | SG: Putting | |
| Scottie Scheffler | 4th | 2nd | 6th | 17th | 16th |
- 2023: Keegan Bradley (-23)
- Price: 80-1
| SG: Off the Tee | SG: Tee to Green | SG: Approach | SG: Around the Green | SG: Putting | |
| Keegan Bradley | 38th | 7th | 1st | 33rd | 1st |
- 2022: Xander Schauffele (-19)
- Price: 20-1
| SG: Off the Tee | SG: Tee to Green | SG: Approach | SG: Around the Green | SG: Putting | |
| Xander Schauffele | 15th | 8th | 5th | 47th | 4th |
- 2021: Harris English (-13)
- Price: 45-1
| SG: Off the Tee | SG: Tee to Green | SG: Approach | SG: Around the Green | SG: Putting | |
| Harris English | 9th | 3rd | 32nd | 8th | 18th |
- 2020: Dustin Johnson (-19)
- Price: 30-1
| SG: Off the Tee | SG: Tee to Green | SG: Approach | SG: Around the Green | SG: Putting | |
| Dustin Johnson | 46th | 6th | 6th | 25th | 4th |
Previous Winners Incoming Form (Last 5 Starts):
- 2024: Scottie Scheffler
- T41 – U.S. Open (MAJ)
- WON – the Memorial Tournament (PGA)
- T2 – Charles Schwab Challenge (PGA)
- T8 – PGA Championship (MAJ)
- WON – RBC Heritage (PGA)
- 2023: Keegan Bradley
- MC – U.S. Open (MAJ)
- T30 – the Memorial Tournament (PGA)
- T29 – PGA Championship (MAJ)
- T35 – Wells Fargo Championship (PGA)
- T48 – RBC Heritage (PGA)
- 2022: Xander Schauffele
- T14 – U.S. Open (MAJ)
- T18 – the Memorial Tournament (PGA)
- T13 – PGA Championship (MAJ)
- T5 – AT&T Byron Nelson (PGA)
- WON – Zurich Classic (PGA)
- 2021: Harris English
- 3 – U.S. Open (MAJ)
- T14 – Palmetto Championship (PGA)
- T64 – PGA Championship (MAJ)
- T13 – AT&T Byron Nelson (PGA)
- T43 – Wells Fargo Championship (PGA)
- 2020: Dustin Johnson
- T17 – RBC Heritage (PGA)
- MC – Charles Schwab Challenge (PGA)
- N/A – THE PLAYERS Championship (PGA)
- T48 – WGC-Mexico Championship (PGA)
- T10 – The Genesis Invitational (PGA)
Previous Winners Finishes at Event:
2024: Scottie Scheffler
| 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
| Travelers Championship | Travelers Championship | Travelers Championship | Travelers Championship |
| TPC River Highlands | TPC River Highlands | TPC River Highlands | TPC River Highlands |
| T4 | T13 | T47 | MC |
2023: Keegan Bradley
| 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
| Travelers Championship | Travelers Championship | Travelers Championship | Travelers Championship | Travelers Championship | Travelers Championship | Travelers Championship | Travelers Championship | Travelers Championship | Travelers Championship | Travelers Championship |
| TPC River Highlands | TPC River Highlands | TPC River Highlands | TPC River Highlands | TPC River Highlands | TPC River Highlands | TPC River Highlands | TPC River Highlands | TPC River Highlands | TPC River Highlands | TPC River Highlands |
| MC | MC | T2 | T47 | T8 | T25 | T39 | T31 | T18 | T29 | T63 |
2022: Xander Schauffele
| 2020 | 2018 | 2017 |
| Travelers Championship | Travelers Championship | Travelers Championship |
| TPC River Highlands | TPC River Highlands | TPC River Highlands |
| T20 | MC | T14 |
2021: Harris English
| 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
| Travelers Championship | Travelers Championship | Travelers Championship | Travelers Championship | Travelers Championship | Travelers Championship | Travelers Championship |
| TPC River Highlands | TPC River Highlands | TPC River Highlands | TPC River Highlands | TPC River Highlands | TPC River Highlands | TPC River Highlands |
| MDF | MC | MC | T25 | T7 | T43 | T64 |
2020: Dustin Johnson
| 2014 | 2009 | 2008 |
| Travelers Championship | Travelers Championship | Travelers Championship |
| TPC River Highlands | TPC River Highlands | TPC River Highlands |
| T31 | WD | T34 |
Picks:
Outrights
Patrick Cantlay (+2200) – DraftKings
Russell Henley (+4000) – DraftKings
Cameron Young (+5000) – FanDuel
Daniel Berger (+5000) – FanDuel
Akshay Bhatia (+7000) – FanDuel
Andrew Novak (+12000) – FanDuel
Matti Schmid (+17000) – FanDuel
Top 20
Keegan Bradley (+105) – DraftKings
Best of luck this week! You can follow me on Twitter @GatorBetting and on Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. I always welcome feedback—positive or constructive—so feel free to reach out!
Tuesday Free Play Video:
Premium Selections over at http://oddsbreakers.com
3 Free Selections:
NHL: Oilers/Panthers
MLB: Mets/Braves
MLB: Royals/Rangers
Go check out @theoddsbreakers – Tons of free content!!
AFC East 2025 Preview – Season Win Totals & Best Bet – Sports Betting
The AFC East – When are we just going to stop betting the Jets? I am going to say now doggone it. Now! The AFC East was terrible last season minus Josh Allen. Miami once again injured themselves, and had no offense for some reason, while the Jets were an offensive & defensive mess. The Patriots were slated to be the worst team in football, yet showed some life towards the end of the season. For 2025, the AFC East plays the NFC South, and the AFC North which I would call a pretty easy draw. It gets even easier when a team is up top being that they get to play the lower tiered teams in this division. Let’s see how it all pans out.
Best bet: Bills over 11.5 -145 – 1 star (FD)
Divisional Odds: Bills -260 – Patriots +475 – Dolphins +650 – Jets +1800
1. Buffalo Bills –
Vegas win total: 11.5 juiced to the over -170
2024 Wins: 13
Pythagorean Wins: 12.15
Schedule: Easy – at large vs Kansas City, @ Houston, vs Philadelphia
Schedule Last Year: Medium Hard
Key losses: WR Mack Hollins, Edge Von Miller, WR Amari Cooper, CB Rasul Douglas, DT Austin Johnson.
Key additions: WR Josh Palmer, OLB Michael Hoecht, Edge Joey Bosa, DE Larry Ogunjobi, CB Tre’Davious White, WR Elijah Moore, CB Dane Jackson.
Key Draft Picks: CB Maxwell Hairston, DL TJ Sanders, Edge Landon Jackson, and a bunch of dudes.
Summary: Once again, Damar Hamlin got cheated from comeback player of the year less than two years after he cheated death. He actually played for real this year to. I’m not bitter about that at all. Anyways, the Bills last year were three zebras away from making the super bowl. Getting over the hump has to be the goal, and playing close games haven’t turned out all that well for this team. What I will say, is that this is the year, Buffalo has the easiest shot of securing the number one overall seed in the AFC. This schedule is disgustingly easy for a team of this caliber. The Bills did not lose much to free agency. Von Miller was washed, and Amari Cooper was just borrowed due to injuries. I really like what this team did in free agency. Joshua Palmer is an under-rated wide receiver, while Elijah Moore can stretch the field. James Cook is back and he will lead the way at running back as soon as his hold out ends. My biggest concerns remain at health. Josh Allen has to try and win with his arm more against an easy schedule, while Joey Bosa has to finally stay on the field for a full season. Or at least for the playoffs. I like their draft in Maxwell Hairston and cornerback and how this team beefed up that defensive line. Back to the schedule, this Bills team gets their hardest opponents in the Chiefs, the Eagles, and the Ravens all at home. The sky is the limit for Buffalo and this is the year that they do it. I pick this team to win the super bowl, but so does many.
My Number: 15.08
Action – Over 11.5 -145 – 1 star (FD) – To be the number 1 seed +275 – .5 stars (FD) Bills to win Super Bowl +750 – .5 stars (FD)
Power Rating: 6.75
2. Miami Dolphins –
Vegas win total: 8.5 juiced to the under -160
2024 Wins: 8
Pythagorean Wins: 7.95
Schedule: Medium Easy – At large @ Indianapolis, vs LA Chargers, vs Washington (in Madrid Spain),
Schedule Last Year: Easy
Key losses: S Jevon Holland, DE Calais Campbell, G Robert Jones, DE Emmanuel Ogbah, TE Durham Smythe, DE DaShawn Hand, S Siran Neal, RB Raheem Mostert, CB Kendall Fuller, RB Jeff Wilson.
Key additions: G/C James Daniels, ILB Tyrel Dodson, QB Zach Wilson, WR Nick Westbrook, CB Ifeatu Melifonwu, S Ashtyn Davis, T Larry Borom.
Whom they drafted: DL Kenneth Grant, OL Jonah Savalinaea, DL Jordan Phillips, CB Jason Marshall, QB Quinn Ewers.
Summary: The Miami Dolphins were stuck in mediocre land with a defense that somehow ranked 8th in opponent EPA, while the offense was the problem ranking 22nd. With an offensive coach like Mike McDaniel, this should be unacceptable. What’s even more unacceptable is what we have been saying for the last few years. Tua at the quarterback position is a walking timebomb. He is one concussion away from missing multiple weeks if not more. What is the Dolphins contingency plan? Zach Wilson. Well, I think that it will be Zach Wilson. Maybe Quinn Ewers upon chance steps in and rips it up like Brock Purdy did for the 49ers, but I wouldn’t exactly want to bet on that. The Dolphins lost a few running backs to free agency. I do like how they drafted some good defensive line, but there really isn’t anything exciting minus a mouthy Tyreke Hill, and a cornerback Jalen Ramsey who wants to be traded. I do not know how anyone could trust this team to get back to what they were a few years back. One thing that is good for the Dolphins, is that their schedule ranks 2nd in +11 net days rest. They do not get any team off of a bye week. All in all, I expect complete mediocrity. They will upset a few teams. Maybe even the Bills, but they will also lose some games that they shouldn’t.
My Number: 8.58 wins
Action – Lean over
Miami Dolphins Power rating: 1
3. New England Patriots –
Vegas win total: 8.5 juiced to the over -120
2024 Wins: 4
Pythagorean Wins: 4.95
Schedule: Easy – at large vs Las Vegas, @ Tennessee, vs NY Giants
Schedule Last Year: Medium Easy
Key losses: Coach Jerad Mayo, QB Jacoby Brissett, CB mJonathan Jones, DE Deatrich Wise, ILB Ja’whaun Bently, C David Andrews.
Key additions: Coach Mike Vrable, DT Milton Williams, WR Stefon Diggs, CB Carlton Davis, Edge Harold Landry, LB Robert Spillane, T Morgan Moses, C Garrett Bradbury, WR Mack Hollins, QB Joshua Dobbs, OLB K”Lavon Chaisson, DT Khyris Tonga, S Marcus Epps, S Jaylinn Hawkins.
Key Draft Picks: T Will Campbell, RB TreVeyon Henderson, WR Kyle Williams, C Jared Wilson.
Summary: The Patriots are the most hyped team in the NFL right now. Watching their season win total go up from 4 to 8.5 is really something. Let’s start with the coach. It looks like Jerad Mayo was only a placeholder for coach Mike Vrable. I honestly like Mike Vrable, and have to give the Patriots a pretty big upgrade. I also like how this team had the most money to spend in the offseason and spend they certainly did. It is also liking like quarterback Drake May will turn into the franchise guy that they all had hoped. This team upgraded at almost every position, and they had a pretty solid draft for 2025. Now for the bad. I do not like the pass catchers on this team. Stefon Diggs is going to party himself off of the boat. I don’t think that news story with the drugs in a bag was a good look for him. The other two receivers in Kyle Williams and DeMario Douglas are very below average. Tight end Hunter Henry is past his prime, while backup Austin Hooper has been on a slide. I expect a great defense under new coach Mike Vrable, but I also expect this offense to struggle. We have to remember that last season, the Patriots schedule was ranked quite easy. The team did well towards the end of last year, but will that momentum continue? I have to go against the market on this one. The market putting out 8.5 wins is too much to ask. Seven wins will still be a successful season for this team. I will say though that this team will probably get better as the year goes on.
My Number: 7.45 wins
Summary: Under 8.5 for 1 star
New England Patriots Power Rating: -3.5
4. New York Jets –
Vegas win total: 5.5 juiced to the over -160
2024 Wins: 5
Pythagorean Wins: 6.66
Schedule: Medium – at large vs Dallas, vs Denver (in London), @ Jacksonville
Schedule Last Year: Medium Easy
Key losses: Coach Robert Saleh, WR Davante Adams, CB DJ Reed, DT Javon Kinlaw, Edge Hasson Reddick, QB Aaron Rogers, T Morgan Moses, TE Tyler Conklin, DE Solomon Thomas, CB Brandin Echols, S Ashtyn Davis, G Wes Schweitzer, LB CJ Mosely, LT Tyron Smith.
Key additions: Coach Aaron Glenn, QB Justin Fields, CB Brandon Stephens, S Andre Cisco, WR Josh Reynolds, C Josh Myers, CB Kris Boyd.
Whom they drafted: T Armand Membou, TE Mason Taylor, WR Arian Smith, CB Azareye’h Thomas.
Summary: From Aaron Rogers to Justin Fields. What could go wrong? I can tell you what won’t go wrong is that I will not be betting on them again to win the division. I also will enjoy the laughter that I will have watching the Steelers face the Jets on week 1. Let’s start with the coach. Going from Robert Saleh to Aaron Glenn isn’t exactly my idea of an upgrade. Glenn was fine on the Lions as a DC, especially with all of their injuries, but I do not see him as some great coaching prospect. Going from Rogers to Justin Fields is like trading in your 10 year old corvette for a slightly used Subaru. Justin Fields is just a hybrid quarterback who can run the ball very well. I still haven’t seen him throw his way out of tough situations as he tends to lose confidence in the clutch. When teams bait him into bad situations, he turns the ball over, if not just taking a bad sack. I wish that I could say that the Jets lived on their defense last year, but that unit only ranked 21st in defensive EPA, and when the Jets played any team with a pulse, they got destroyed. New York also lost a ton of talent from the defensive side of the ball. Quinnen Williams and Sauce Gardner are really the only big names left. This feels a lot like the Giants defense from last year. The 2025 draft wasn’t exactly sexy. I like their tackle, but no proof that Armand Membou will develop. The Jets lost much more than they have gained. The schedule shapes up ok for the Jets and they did underachieve last year with a Pythagorean win total of 6.66, but with all of the change, that number cannot really be trusted. This team might have the worst results for 2025.
My Number: 4.33
Action – Lean under
New York Jets Power Rating: -6
*Blue means not signed or picked up by an NFL team
Saturday Free Play Video:
Premium Selections over at http://oddsbreakers.com
3 Free Selections:
NBA: Panthers/Oilers
WNBA: Storm/Valkyries
MLB: Guardians/Mariners
Go check out @theoddsbreakers – Tons of free content!!
MLB Saturday Super Play – Sports Betting – Padres vs Diamondbacks
Padres vs Diamondbacks -164 O/U 9.5
Game Overview
- Date: June 14, 2025
- Location: Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ
Team Performance
- Diamondbacks: Currently on a five-game home win streak, with a 35-34 overall record and 19-17 at home. They boast the third-best team slugging percentage in MLB (.449).
- Padres: Holding a 38-30 overall record, they are 17-18 on the road. They have a strong 27-7 record when out-hitting opponents.
Key Players
- Diamondbacks:
- Corbin Carroll: 12 doubles, 8 triples, 20 home runs, 44 RBIs.
- Ketel Marte: 13-for-35 with 4 home runs and 9 RBIs in the last 10 games.
- Padres:
- Luis Arraez: 15 doubles, 3 triples, 3 home runs.
- Manny Machado: 17-for-42 with a double and 3 home runs in the last 10 games.
Padres vs. Diamondbacks Pitching Matchup (ERA & FIP)
Starting Pitchers
- Padres: Ryan Bergert (1-0, 1.26 ERA, 4.34 FIP, 14.1 IP)
- Diamondbacks: Zac Gallen (4-8, 5.15 ERA, 4.90 FIP, 80.1 IP).
Advanced Metrics (FIP)
- Ryan Bergert (SD): His Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) of 4.34 suggests his ERA is misleadingly low due to an unsustainable 96% left-on-base rate. He has walked six batters and struck out eight, indicating potential regression.
- Zac Gallen (ARI): His FIP of 4.90 aligns closely with his ERA, showing that his struggles are not just bad luck but a result of inconsistent pitching. His strikeout rate remains solid, but he has been vulnerable to hard contact.
Bullpen Comparison
- Padres: Ranked third in MLB with a 3.81 ERA, their bullpen has been a key factor in close games.
- Diamondbacks: Their bullpen has been less reliable, with a 4.00 ERA, struggling in late-game situations.
Weather:
None – Domed Stadium
Prediction:
The total on this game is sky high due to bad pitching. What’s even more glaring is that snake’s pitcher Zac Gallen has been just awful this year with a FIP of 4.9. It’s not like Padres Pitcher Ryan Bergert has been much better, but the Padres have the much better bullpen ranking 7th in FIP to 28th for the Snakes. I will give the overall hitting advantage to the Diamondbacks for now, but that should even out this price to be closer to pick-em rather than plus money for the Padres. Take the Dad’s the day before Fathers day!
Padres +141 – 1 star
Friday MLB Free Play – Fishy First Five
Baseball season continues chugging along. I didn’t have the greatest start in MLB, losing 7 of 8 to start the year didn’t help, but we’re plodding with promise. April we were down just over 11 Units, and we got it all back in May plus a little. June has been less than stellar to start. For the season we currently sit at 60-66-38 -4.6 Units. Most of my plays in MLB are 1 or 1.5 units, with some rarer 2 Unit plays. Today’s being one of those.
My Analysis today turns to Nationals Park in Washington DC where the Washington Nationals (30-38) will host the Miami Marlins (25-41) at 6:45 ET. The current line sits with the Nationals as slight favorites at -110 (Marlins +105) with an Over/Under of 8.5 juiced to the over at -120. Game time temperature will be a balmy 88 degrees under partly cloudy skies with the wind blowing out slightly to right at roughly 5mph.
The Marlins have struggled as of late losing 8 of 10 since June began and scoring just 3.4 runs per game. The Nationals also have dropped 8 of their last ten albeit against much better competition than the fish.
Miami starts Edward Cabrera on the bump hoping for good things to happen tonight and for the rest of the season for him. He hasn’t completed a full season in the bigs without injury thus far. After a rough start to the season coming off the IL with a 7.23 ERA in April he has only allowed seven earned runs since then. His peripherals have been solid in lining up with his ERA as he sports a 3.99 mark. His BABIP allowed is at .336 so there is also some positive regression coming for him. He is still striking out over a batter an innings and his walk rate is the lowest of his career at 3.81 batter per nine innings.
On the other side the Nats will run our Mitchell Parker. A lefty who doesn’t strike out many hitters. He has a 4.44 ERA, but has been extremely lucky so far with a HR% against at just 6.6% and a BABIP allowed at .255. He’s got some rough waters coming his way yet as the numbers even out for the season. He is only striking out 5.96 hitters per nine innings and walks 3.55. Up until his start Saturday against the Rangers he had allowed 3+ earned runs in seven straight starts.
So what’s the angle? The offenses are very similar with Miami holding a .690 OPS and Washington a .687. So it boils down to quite simply, Cabrera is the better guy on the mound. While both pitchers allow their share of hard contact, Cabrera can recover with the K, where Parker struggles in that department. Parker got 12 ground ball outs in his first meeting with Miami (Ironically enough these same pitchers opposed each other in that game back in April) and that is highly unlikely to repeat itself. Cabrera’s biggest weakness is walks, and the Nats are 26th in MLB in that department. I look for Cabrera to hopefully get through a decent five innings with a lead and then all bets are off as both of these bullpens are atrocious. (Miami 25th in MLB 4.66 ERA, Nationals 29th in MLB 5.70 ERA). – Maybe Live bet the over in the 5th.
Marlins F5 -120 for 2 Units
Friday Free Play Video:
Premium Selections over at http://oddsbreakers.com
3 Free Selections:
NBA: Thunder/Pacers
WNBA: Sky/Dream
MLB: Padres/D-Backs
Go check out @theoddsbreakers – Tons of free content!!
AFC South 2025 Preview – Season Win Totals & Best Bet – Sports Betting
The AFC South – The AFC South is the most agonizing division in the NFL. In the beginning of the season, the Titans blew a massive 17 point lead to the Bears, all during the second half. They also choked the next few games away as well. The Jaguars were grossly incompetent as well in choking away their first two games, while the Colts continue to have quarterback issues. The Texans once again had it pretty easy last season, and it didn’t take much for them to slither into the playoffs. This season, this division plays the AFC West and the NFC West, which is tricky as due to more travel. Can the Texans keep their number one spot? Are the Jaguars ever going to play up to their talent? Can the Colts rush their way into the playoffs? How bad will the Titans be this season? Let’s dive in.
Best Bet: Jacksonville Jaguars over 7.5 wins – 1 star
Division Winner: Texans +115 – Jags +260 – Colts +380 – Titans +650
1. Houston Texans –
Vegas win total: 9.5 juiced to the under -120
2024 Wins: 10
Pythagorean Wins: 8.5
Schedule: Medium Hard – at large vs Tampa Bay, @ Baltimore, vs Buffalo
Schedule Last Year: Medium
Key losses: T Laremy Tunsil, G Kenyon Green, WR Stephon Diggs (didn’t play much), S Eric Murray, CB Jeff Okudah, QB Case Keenum, WR Robert Woods, G Shaq Mason.
Key additions: WR Christian Kirk, S CJ Gardner-Johnson, T Cam Robinson, CB Tremon Smith, LB Nick Niemann, DT Sheldon Rankins, WR Justin Watson, G Laken Tomlinson, CB Ronald Darby.
Key Draft Picks: WR Jayden Higgins, T Aireontae Ersery.
Summary: The Texans were once again very busy in free agency. Some analysts were shocked that they decided to trade tackle Laremy Tunsil, and Kenyon Green. This team was poor at protecting CJ Stroud, so changes had to be made. Dumping wide receiver Stephon Diggs is already proving to be the right move here in the offseason. Most importantly, this team didn’t have to be great to make the playoffs ranking only 21st in offensive EPA. Their defense certainly helped carry the way ranking 6th in overall EPA, and I do not see them taking a step back on that side of the ball, especially with a defensive minded coach like Demeco Ryans. I like how this team added slot receiver Christian Kirk. Wide receivers Nico Collins & Tank Dell should finally be back healthy, and I expect some big improvement this year in the offense. The Texan’s schedule doesn’t set up too bad for a first place team. There really isn’t all that much more to say about Houston. They made all the right moves. I think that this team could be the one of the best teams that nobody is talking about in the AFC.
My Number: 10.25
Action: Lean Over
Houston Texans Power Rating: 2.25
2. Jacksonville Jaguars –
Vegas win total: 7.5
2024 Wins: 4
Pythagorean Wins: 5.42
Schedule: Easy – at large vs Carolina, @ Cincinnati, vs NY Jets
Schedule Last Year: Easy
Key losses: HC Doug Peterson, TE Evan Engram, S Andre Cisco, TE Luke Farrell, QB Mac Jones, CB Ronald Darby, G Brandon Sherff.
Key additions: HC Liam Coen, G/C Patrick Mekari, CB Jourdain Lewis, C Robert Hainsey, S Eric Murray, WR Dyami Brown, T Chuma Edoga.
Key Draft Picks: WR/CB Travis Hunter, CB Caleb Ransaw, T Wyatt Milum, LB Jack Kiser.
Summary: Loving you,… is easy cause your beautiful… Isn’t that how the song goes? Well, this is how the Jags felt when they traded up from number five to get Travis Hunter at number two. Like we know in all relationships, wait until you get to know them. The good news is that I really believe that Travis Hunter is a great guy. Now, that doesn’t mean that he is worth all that this team has given up for him. I mean, what are you doing Jags? Last year’s top wide receiver pick in Brian Thomas Jr. had one of the most phenomenal rookie years that anyone could ask for. So now you get another star that will take catches and targets away from Thomas? Especially when you need so much. The bigger problem with Travis Hunter is that if he is a true unicorn, and can play both ways, doesn’t his chance of getting injured go up as well? Last season at Colorado, Hunter had to take some plays off while on the field due to fatigue. I did see him get burned a few times on defense. Last season, the Jaguars ranked 31st in defensive EPA, and 19th respectively on offense. They needed to get more dudes in the middle to help stop the run. So the biggest change to this team was convincing new head coach Liam Coen to leave Tampa Bay and come across the limestone State to Jacksonville. I honestly do like this hire, and Coen was a huge part of Tampa Bay’s resurgence. Coaching matters greatly in this league, and quarterback Trevor Lawrence has never had a good one. I think that this might be the key to the whole season. With a little luck, the Jaguars can possibly make a run at this division. Fair warning, I lose money betting on this Jaguars team every year. I am not going to stop now as maybe it all works out on an easy schedule.
My Number: 8.21
Action – Jaguars over 7.5 wins -115 – 1 star – Jacksonville to make the playoffs +172 – .5 stars
Jacksonville Jaguars Power Rating: – -1
3. Indianapolis Colts –
Vegas win total: 7.5
2024 Wins: 8
Pythagorean Wins: 7.18
Schedule: Medium Easy – At large vs Miami, @ Pittsburgh, vs Atlanta (neutral in Berlin),
Schedule Last Year: Medium Easy
Key losses: G Will Fries, Edge Dayo Odeyingbo, C Ryan Kelly, K Matt Gay, QB Joe Flacco, LB EJ Speed, TE Kylen Granson, DT Raekwon Davis, S Julian Blackmon.
Key additions: S Camryn Bynum, CB Charvarius Ward, QB Daniel Jones, WR Ashton Dulin, K Spencer Shrader.
Whom they drafted: TE Tyler Warren, Edge JT Tuimoloau, CB Justin Walley, QB Riley Leonard, DL Tim Smith.
Summary: What’s the old saying? If you have two quarterbacks, then you have no quarterbacks. As I stated last year, Anthony Richardson is a bust. So what do they do? They pick up another bust from the Giants in Daniel Jones. I honestly do not know what to do with this team. They seem to be wasting the talent of running back half back Jonathan Taylor, and guard Quenton Nelson. Coach Shane Steichen is on the hot seat this year, and he doesn’t have a lot of guys to dig him out. The Offensive line is mid at best, the defense should be half way decent with all of the prospects that they have picked up. The draft pick of Tyler Warren was great, but this team didn’t seem to care to use their tight ends well in the past. I do not see much of a pass rush here to get to the better quarterbacks in this league. The best hope for the Colts is for late round draft pick Riley Leonard to all of a sudden develop an NFL arm. He can at least run the ball pretty well, and if Steichen can keep this offense somewhat simple, maybe, just maybe, they can win eight games again. In saying that, purgatory is what I continue to expect to see in the future for the Colts.
My Number: 8.45
Action – No Play
Indianapolis Colt’s Power Rating: -3
4. Tennessee Titans –
Vegas win total: 5.5 juiced to the under -150
2024 Wins: 3
Pythagorean Wins: 4.66
Schedule: Medium Easy – At large games vs New England, @ Cleveland, vs New Orleans
Schedule Last Year: Medium
Key losses: OLB Harold Landry, QB Mason Rudolph, CB Chidobe Awuzie, S Quandre Diggs, K Nick Folk.
Key additions: T Dan Moore, LB Cody Barton, G Kevin Zeitler, DE Dra’Mont Jones, S Xavier Woods, DT Sebastian Joseph, WR Tyler Lockett, WR Van Jefferson, and a ton of cheap dudes.
Key Draft Picks: QB Cam Ward, Edge Oluwafemi Oladejo, S Kevin Winston, WR Chimere Dike.
Summary: I wish I could say that it pays so suck all of the time. The Titans think that they have drafted their franchise quarterback, but I am just not so sure about that. These days in college, sometimes its best to be a big fish in a small pond around a team that paid for their players in a bad football conference. Don’t get me wrong. Cam Ward “might” turn out, but he would not even have been drafted in my top four back in twenty four. In saying all this, it’s hard for the Titans to get any worse from a results perspective as they did last year. Choking away games was their montage and when the season got out of hand, this team just could not keep it close. The good news for this team is that they signed a ton of talent, and decided to spend a bunch of money this year to try and protect their quarterback. Brian Callahan will have to scheme to win a lot of tough games. Now they just need someone to throw the ball to. Who will that be? Um… Yeah. I expect this defense to be a little above average, but we may be looking at the worst offense in football.
My Number: 5.83
Action: Lean over
Tennessee Titans Power Rating: -6.5
*Blue means not signed or picked up by an NFL team
Thursday Free Play Video:
Premium Selections over at http://oddsbreakers.com
3 Free Selections:
NHL: Oilers/Panthers
MLB: Cardinals/Brewers
CFL: BC/Winnipeg
Go check out @theoddsbreakers – Tons of free content!!
