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Friday Bowl Game Teaser

By
Alan Cashman
-

Follow me on Twitter @TheCashmanwins

 

CFB Pick

2 Team 7 pt Teaser/-130/Small

OK St +11.5

USC +9

 

Oklahoma St  vs Texas A&M 6:45 pm

 

We missed the best number of 7 a couple of weeks ago.  Had to see if Hubbard was going to play for OK St and he is.  QB Sanders also appears to be playing though I would have been ok with the backup Brown, though Sanders offers more versatility and mobility.

 

Oklahoma St has been competitive most of the season.  They won 4 straight before a loss at Oklahoma in bad weather that was actually closer than the 34-16 score.  

 

OK St is 9-2 ATS last 11 vs team with a winning record

OK St is 7-1 ATS following a loss

OK St is 12-2 last 14 as a dog

OK St is 5-1 ATS last 6 neutral site games

 

Oklahoma St is #16 in rush offense and #16 in total offense.  

OK St averages 35.2 ppg in road games while Texas A&M scores 13.5 on the road.  

PF/PA for OK St in their last 3 is 22.3/20 while it is 16.7/25 for Texas A&M.   

 

OK St went over 200 yards rushing in a game 8 times this season

 

I just am not impressed with anything that Texas A&M does.  They put up zero fight vs LSU losing 50-7 being out gained by 384 yards.  They were competitive against a really disappointing Georgia team, lost 19-13.  They were -6 in the last 3 games in turnover margin .  

 

The Aggies were out gained by Arkansas in a neutral site game and held to 89 yards rushing and 2.2 ypc in a game  that Texas A&M eventually won 31-27.  

 

Texas A&M beat up on the likes of Texas St, Lamar, and UTSA.  They did score wins over Miss St and South Carolina by decisive margins though they allowed 433 yards to Miss St and only out gained them by 8 yards in the contest.  

 

Oklahoma St opened the season with a win at Oregon St who ended up being a better team than many expected.  They lost by 6 at Texas but the game was very even statistically in key areas. In 3 of OK State’s 4 losses, their opponent rushed for over 200 yards with Texas Tech being the exception as the Red Raiders went for 586 total yards, 424 passing in a 45-35 loss by Ok St.  Ok St was -5 in turnovers in that game and still scored 35. OK St is +6 in turnovers over the last 5 games.  

 

Texas A&M combined for 74 yards rushing in their final 2 losses to Georgia and LSU.   OK St also went to Iowa St and won 34-27. This is a good team OK St, they compete, they are consistent on offense and are multi-faceted on offense which I don’t feel Texas A&M is.

 

USC vs Iowa 8 pm

 

I haven’t loved Iowa this season.  We got a money line win with them early in the season but their offense has not been one that gives you a bunch of confidence if they have to score points.  

 

USC might be the best offense the Hawkeyes have faced all season.  The best passing team Iowa faced before this might have been Minnesota in which they allowed 431 total yards total, second most this season only to Wisconsin and allowed 368 passing yards to the Gophers, the most vs any team this season.  The 2 highest scoring outputs by Iowa vs Power 5 opponents was 27 at Nebraska, a 27-24 win, and 26 at home in a 26-20 win over Purdue. Far from impressive in my book. The fact that those were both 1 score games has to make you rethink Iowa and who they are.  

 

USC started the season with nearly 1400 total yards in their first 3 games.  They then had an injury to their QB and still beat Utah handing the Utes the first of 2 losses this season.  The Trojans have the #5 passing offense this season. I think they will pose some problems for Iowa. USC closed the season with total yard games of 547, 462 and 643.  They passed for nearly 1,400 yards in those games. 

 

Iowa still has a very good defense but this offense should be better than what they have played as far as the pass game.  The game is in San Diego. USC should have a nice crowd.  

 

I would like USC a little at a spread of +3 but we don’t have that.  I think a 7 pt teaser getting them +9 in this match up looks good.   

 

College Bowls December 26th – 28th Plays

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

Dec. 26

Walk-On’s Independence Bowl
Louisiana Tech vs. Miami -6 O/U 50
Independence Stadium
Shreveport, Louisiana
4 p.m., ESPN/ESPN App |

This is more of a home game for Louisiana tech with a 1 hour drive from campus.  They should be motivated still being that they are playing the Hurricanes.   You would think Miami won’t be motivated here but they have been embarrassed too many times this year.   LA tech will certainly be motivated and they had a great season but certainly an easier schedule ranking 141st on Sagarin while Miami’s ranked 64th.  Miami has a decent defense and a net 1.1 yard per play while LA Tech was .85.  My Power ratings have this game Miami -11.5 on a neutral field here.   There are a few guys from Miami that will miss this game due to the NFL draft.   Trevon Hill at edge rusher is the main one but Jahfari Harvey is a DE whome will get a chance to play in the Independence Bowl and still maintain his redshirt season.   Look for some havoc created by this kid.  I also think if Miami loses this bowl game, it will really affect their recruiting.   When LA Tech stepped up in class they got beaten pretty badly.  IF the Cane’s lose this game say bye bye to their future recuriting under Manny Diaz.  Gotta go with the Canes on a short number.

Quick Lane Bowl
Pittsburgh vs. Eastern Michigan +11 O/U 48.5
Ford Field
Detroit
8 p.m., ESPN/ESPN App |

This is a home game for Eastern Michigan at 37 miles away but it is already factored into the number.   Pittsburgh doesn’t seem to perform well when laying big chalk and my oh my did they have a bad finish getting shut out by Virginia Tech and losing to Boston College.   They kind of deserve this spot playing in Detroit over Florida this time of year.   I want to bet Eastern Michigan here but my biggest problem is that they are a net even in yards per play with that easy Mac schedule while Pitt is at least a positive .6.  My power ratings have this at 11 exactly with home field for the Eagles

Lean Eastern Michigan +11

Dec. 27

Military Bowl Presented by Northrop Grumman
North Carolina vs. Temple +4.5 O/U 53
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
Annapolis, Maryland
Noon, ESPN/ESPN App |

This is more of a home game for Temple being only 124 miles away but I do expect a UNC turnout as well.  This is one of them situations where one team has the better offense in North Carolina and one team has the better defense in Temple.   UNC has a .2 yard per play advantage over the Owls and a better quarterback in Sam Howell but make no mistake, Anthony Russo can step up in big games like they have against Memphis.  My Power ratings have UNC by 3.75 points here on a neutral field.  I did take Temple early at +6 but now that this line has fallen to 4.5 I am considering a buy back just due to Rod Carey’s bowl record at 0-6 ATS.  Mack Brown has gotten these North Carolina kids excited this year.

Lean UNC -4.5

New Era Pinstripe Bowl
Michigan State vs. Wake Forest +3.5 O/U 50
Yankee Stadium
New York
3:20 p.m., ESPN/ESPN App |

This is the bowl that you get when you are extremely disappointing compared with your preseason expectations.   Wisconsin played Miami here last year so trust me on that.   This line tells me one thing and one thing only.   The Oddsmakers have no idea what is going to happen here.   Michigan State is a defensive team who plays slow and Wake Forest is a fast paced high powered offense.   Well, when I say high powered, I actually mean when they play teams that are not so good.   3 points is all that they could muster up vs Clemson and they ended up losing their last game at Syracuse.   Both of these teams are barely positive in yards per play and if they didn’t have an easy non-conference, they would not have made bowl games.   My power ratings have this game at 3 points but Michigan State should be able to put up a few points here.   I lean to the under here but I am not going to make a play at this point.

Lean under 50

Academy Sports + Outdoors Texas Bowl
Oklahoma State vs. Texas A&M -7 O/U 54
NRG Stadium
Houston
6:45 p.m., ESPN/ESPN App |

No surprise to me that Texas A&M wasn’t going to get a home game here in Houston which is only 95 miles away.   Over 500 miles to Stillwater is enough to decide to stay home with your 65 inch TV.      Other than that, both of these coaches boast great bowl ATS records with Jimbo Fisher at 6-3 and Mike Gundy at 8-5.   Texas A&M has been very dissapointing this season.   They haven’t been able to come within even 2 scores of a top 25 matchup.  My power ratings line up well with this spread being that I have A&M 4 points better than Okie State but I also do not think that A&M may be all that motivated here.  Oklahoma State has a few decent wins vs TCU and Iowa State here and I think they have the firepower to keep up with the Aggies.  In saying that, I think a look to the over might be even better.   This game is being played in a retractable dome here that will guarantee good weather.   Oklahoma State plays pretty fast and scores 33 points per game while A&M should be able to put up lots of points against this bad Cowboy defense.   A&M averaged 30 playing a tough conference shedule of 5 top 10 teams.

Over 54 – 2 star Premium Shared

San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl
USC vs. Iowa -2 O/U 51.5
SDCCU Stadium
San Diego
8 p.m., Fox Sports 1 –

This is a home game for USC here but Iowa’s fan base travels well and especially during the winter.   If I give USC a 1.5 home field advantage, it brings me right to the spread of -2.   Iowa can be sneaky good at times and their quarterback Nate Stanley is a beast.  This team can convert 4th and short like they are a rugby team.  His size alone will give him a shot in the NFL.  USC on the other hand has been really playing well down the stretch beating the crap out of UCLA and Cal while winning 5 of their last 6 games.   I would like to take Iowa here and fade coach Helton but somehow USC’s quarterbacks have all played well and they can score some points.  If Iowa gets jumped on from the beginning, they could have some issues catching up.   I think Iowa should pound the ball here and they will have some trickery come into play later in this game.

Lean first half under 24.5 points

Cheez-It Bowl
Air Force vs. Washington State +3 O/U 68.5
Chase Field
Phoenix
10:15 p.m., ESPN/ESPN App |

So Mike Leach is 2-7 ATS in bowl games.   Well woopty freaking do.   Washington State had a decent year beating teams like Stanford and Oregon State but they also lost bad ones vs California and UCLA do to immense turnovers.   It is true that this team plays very fast and puts up 39 points per game but when they pay good defenses, they seem to falter.   They were able to only put up 13 vs Utah and Washington and 20 vs Cal.  Airforce is a Mountain West team with a half way decent defense holding opponents to 19 points per game and 5.4 yards per play, but what really makes me look at the total here is the fact that Airforce plays a slower game.  They ran the ball 686 times this year and only threw the ball 114.   Giving Mike Leach 3 weeks to stop the triple option tells me that we might see some punts happen this game.   I expect Air force to try and limit the possessions that Washington State has here making this a lower scoring game.

Under 68.5 – 3 star premium shared and Lean WASU +3

Dec. 28

Camping World Bowl
Notre Dame vs. Iowa State +3.5 O/U 54
Camping World Stadium
Orlando, Florida
Noon, ABC/ESPN App |

Will someone sit out this game from Notre Dame?  Nothing has been announced as of yet.  Lots of people have been talking up Iowa State here.  Matt Campbell this and Matt Campbell that.   Well he is only 2-3 ATS in bowl games.  Bryan Kelly isn’t that great either but at least he has played some of the toughest teams.    Most power ratings have Notre Dame 7-10 points better than this team on a neutral field?   Who is Iowa State’s best win this year?   Maybe Texas or TCU but both games were at home?   Notre Dame has beaten USC, Virginia, Navy and kept it close at Georgia.   The Irish also win on the yards per play comparison.   Gonna lay it with the Irish at anything below 6.

Notre Dame -3.5 – 3 star premium shared

Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
Penn State vs. Memphis -6.5 O/U 60.5
Arlington, Texas
Noon, ESPN/ESPN App |

I haven’t heard of any players sitting out this game for Penn State and that worries me a little bit.   It doesn’t worry too much being that I grabbed Memphis +9.5 early.  My power ratings have this a 5.5 spread so that side of the value is gone but a slight buyback on PSU may be possible.   I am very intrigued by this matchup.  James Franklin is 5-3 ATS in bowl games while Memphis will have Ryan Silverfield as interim because of Mike Norvell heading to Florida State.   If you listened to me all year, I said that Penn State was a bit fraudulent.  Penn State was outgained in 4 of their wins but a win is a win and they had a very hard schedule their last 6 games.   Memphis is a positive 1.7 yards per play while Penn State sits at 1.4.   The Tigers had the easier schedule but one could argue that it wasn’t much easier.   Both teams play at an average pace but the total is high due to great offensive efficiency on really both sides.   Even though this number is at 6.5, I still have a slight lean to Memphis but I won’t be making any more plays on that side without their coach.

Lean Memphis +6.5

College Football Playoff Semifinal at the PlayStation Fiesta Bowl
No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Clemson -2 O/U 63
State Farm Stadium
Glendale, Arizona
4 or 8 p.m., ESPN/ESPN App |

This spread is strange to me being all the talk I have heard about Ohio State being the best team all year.   I think it may be because Ohio State has slipped when they faced a very hard last 3 games while Clemson faced nobody.   This is also the reason that Clemson now has a net 3.5 yards per play and Ohio State has fallen to a net 3.0 yards per play.   The strength of schedule obviously favors Ohio State but what we don’t know is how much more Clemson could have won by had they not taken their foot off the gas in the 4th quarters.   I would bet either one of these teams at +3 or above but I doubt that we see that.   Clemson has the experience in this spot and Ohio State has the added motivation of being the Dog.   One weakness that Clemson does have is their special teams rankings 91st on the S&P while Ohio State’s special teams rank 5th.  Clemson’s FG kicker is only at 62% this year and I can see this game coming down to that with Ohio state’s defense being so good in the red zone or in any zone for that fact.   I think the smart play here will be the 1st half under but I don’t have a problem with Ohio State +110 on the ML.
1st half team under 31.5 – 2 star premium shared play
College Football Playoff Semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
No. 1 LSU vs. No. 4 Oklahoma +13.5 O/U 75.5
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Atlanta
4 or 8 p.m., ESPN/ESPN App |
I faded LSU 3 times this year that I can remember and I lost twice, only winning when they played Auburn.  Look at this total.  It is huge.   There are a lot of problems that I have with this game.  LSU is a force and they seem to keep getting better and better.   They have the best Quarterback being that Joe Brady and Steve Enminger matched the perfect system to him bringing in the RPO play and more of a speed type offense.   Joe also can run the ball which has been key.   He makes the greatest decisions and deserves the credit of the Heisman trophy.   My problem with this game is that Jalen Hurts has a ton of talent and we haven’t seen Oklahoma play as a dog all year long.   We know that Jalen has a huge chip on his shoulder after losing his starting QB position as well as helping to win a game last year for Alabama when Tua was roughed up.   Jalen Hurts just might play out of his mind this game and way past his normal levels of execution.   The other problem is that even though LSU has had the way harder schedule and has proved much much more but Oklahoma still has a slight edge in net yards per play at .1 better than LSU.   I can’t get the comeback that Oklahoma had to cover the spread against Alabama last year out of my head.   I also remember that when LSU faced running QBs like Bo Nix and Sam Ellinger, they failed to cover the spread.  Lastly, Oklahoma with Lincoln Riley has been here before recently and LSU and their fantastic coaching staff hasn’t.   Oklahoma just lost their edge best edge rusher and 2nd string running back to suspension which is concerning but If I was to bet this side, it wouldn’t be because of their defense.   I will probably put some money up on Oklahoma and lose one more time here but I will wait and see if a 14.5 pops first.
Lean Oklahoma +13.5

SoFi Hawaii Bowl: Hawaii vs BYU

By
Alan Cashman
-

Follow me on Twitter @TheCashmanwins

 SoFi Hawai’i Bowl

Hawaii vs Brigham Young

8:00 PM ET, Tuesday, December 24, 2019

Aloha Stadium, Honolulu, Hawaii

PICK: BYU -135/Small

 

Reading and seeing more love for Hawaii in this one than BYU.  Going over the numbers, I think this matchup leans toward BYU.

 

Trends

Hawaii is 7-19 ATS last 16 vs team w winning record

Hawaii 1-4 ATS last 5 bowl games

BYU has won 9 of last 10 vs Hawaii

BYU 7-0 straight up last 7 bowl games

BYU 8-2 ATS last 10 vs MWC

 

Hawaii

The game is in Hawaii, so while this is considered a neutral game, this is at Hawaii.  That isn’t necessarily a bad thing. In fact, Hawaii’s #194 ranked defense allows nearly 100 more yards per game at home vs on the road.  Hawaii’s run defense is allowing 4.8 ypc on the road, but at home they allow 6.1 ypc. Their run defense is #103 and has allowed over 200 yards rushing in 6 games this season.  

Hawaii allowed 432 or more total yards at home this year to Arizona (539), Oregon St (432), Air Force (522), Fresno St (514), San Jose St (497) and Army (538).  Hawaii is -10 in net turnovers at home vs -4 on the road. Hawaii is 35/33 PF/PA at home and 31/1 PF/PA in road games. Hawaii had a stretch where the allowed 500 plus yards in 4 straight games this season.  

 

QB Cole Mcdonald was 5th in the nation in passing yards.  In his first 7 games of the season, Mcdonald had 23 TD and 10 INT.  In the final 6 games, he threw just 6 TD and 4 INT.  

 

 

 

BYU

Conversely, BYU seems to put up better numbers on the road.  At home, they average 27 pf and 27 pa but on the road, BYU scores 29 and gives up 22.  Their pass defense is #36 in the nation. They allow 213 yards passing at home and 194 on road.  BYU’s pass defense held opponents under 200 passing yards in 7 games this season. The Cougars are even in net turnovers at home but +4 in net turnovers in road games this season.  

BYU is not a great rushing offense at #71 but they have had success against teams who are not great run defenses.  They put up over 200 yards rushing 4 times this season, 3 of those games were on the road.  

 

 

 

Common Opponents

Washington

Not much to draw from this opponent.  The Huskies handled both teams.  

 

Boise St

Hawaii lost twice to Boise this season.  59-37 and then 31-10. Both games at Boise and the latter was the MWC Conference Championship where Boise St was without their starting QB.  In the first matchup with Boise at full strength, Hawaii allowed over 500 yards of offense and Hawaii was – 3 in turnovers.  

 

BYU beat Boise 28-25 in Provo.  The Cougars held Boise St to 185 passing yards

 

Advantage -BYU

 

 

San Diego St

San Diego St doesn’t bring a lot on offense but does have a good defense.


Hawaii did beat San Diego St 14-11 and BYU lost at San Diego St 13-3. The Cougars, who used three different starting quarterbacks this season due to injury, averaged 39.8 points during a five-game winning streak that was snapped when they were limited to a season-low total in a 13-3 loss at San Diego State  However, BYU held San Diego St to 269 yards on the road while Hawail allowed them 318 yards.  BYU put up 416 total yards against the Aztec defense but -3 turnovers killed their momentum.

 

Podcast 77 – 19 – Happy Holidays With Lee Sterling and Bryan Leonard– College Football Bowls – Sharp Movement – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to all of you listeners!  Thank you for making this such an unforgettable year in 2019!   We have a very Merry show for you today!  Lee Sterling @paramountsports and Bryan Leonard from @Wagertalk comes on to break down some huge bowl games.  All College Bowl games this episode are covered from December 26th through January 1st!   First, Kiev does a quick recap talking about the NFL and the playoff outlook this year.   Next, Kiev talks about how Handicaps should be more focused on quality rather than quantity.  Then, Kiev brings on Lee Sterling and Bryan Leonard to give you some great bowl plays!  Finally, Kiev gives out some more College Bowl plays and goes over the sharp line movement.

www.paramountsports.com – www.wagertalk.com

NCAA:  Clemson vs Ohio State – LSU vs Oklahoma – Air Force vs Washington State – Wisconsin vs Oregon – Alabama vs Michigan – Georgia vs Baylor and more!

College Hoops:  Kansas vs Villanova – Ohio State vs Kentucky

#AAC #ACC #Big12 #Big10 #CUSA #MAC #MWC #Pac12 #SEC #Sunbelt

#Sportsbetting #Gamblingtwitter #NCAA #NFL

Should you need a sports book please visit www.mybookie.ag and use the promo code, “theoddsbreakers” to get a 100% sign up bonus!  Terms and conditions apply.

www.theoddsbreakers.com

For only 17.99 a month become an ODDSBREAKER’S MEMBER and gain access to all premium picks BEFORE the line moves please visit www.theoddsbreakers.com or for $19.99 per month get all of that while adding access to the podcast early by becoming our Patreon at https://www.patreon.com/join/theoddsbreakers?

Follow us on Twitter @theoddsbreakers @OBKiev #theoddsbreakers

NFL Week 16 Free Plays

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

New Orleans vs Tennessee +2.5 O/U 51

Both teams should be motivated here with Tennessee desperate to make the playoffs and the Saints looking for a first round bye.  I like what Tennessee has been doing lately and I really hope that they make the playoffs but this test might prove a bit too large for them.  This team was able to beat up on some bad defenses but when they step up in class it seems to come crashing down.   Even though Ryan Tannahill is so hot right now, the Saints defense has been swarming on the road only allowing 20 points per game.   Their strength is against the run only allowing 4.4 yards per attempt.   Now they just got more help signing Janoris Jenkins to the secondary and he should be able to step in right away.  Tennessee has a decent defense and they haven’t allowed more than 24 points at home since very early November vs KC.   I have this game Saints -1 in my power ratings so no look at this number but I do like the under because I see both teams trying to play come keep away.

New Orleans vs Tennessee under 51 – 3 star premium shared

Oakland vs LA Chargers -7 O/U 45

Throw away your power ratings.  This could be Rivers last home game playing for this team.  It really feels this way.  Eli played out of his mind last week at Met Life Stadium.  The Raiders have come through many times in tough spots but now their season is over and I also know how much Gruden loves his draft picks.   This is a revenge spot for LA as well from that close game in early November in Oakland.  I think that you may see a partial Raiders team playing here and a motivated Chargers team to win a big one for ole Phil and his giant mega family of kids.

LA Chargers -7 – 1 star premium shared play

Cincinnati vs Miami -PK O/U 47

Please don’t watch this game.   If you do, maybe at least make a drinking game out of it.  Every time there is a turnover you have to slam your beer or something.   For each 3 and out take a shot.  Well, actually you may die so don’t do that.  How often 2 games before the season end that you see a healthy star player not play a game?   AJ Green could come back but he has no real motivation or reason to.   The Bengals have been a shell of themselves for most of this year and I do not see a lot of motivation here to win in Miami.   The Dolphins are playing their last home game here for pride in my opinion and we have seen some good effort from them.   My power ratings have Miami -2.5 here and I do not know why they dropped in value this much after losing to the Giants last week.   Miami at least has a reason to win this game being that it is at home.   Both of these teams are equally terrible at -1.2 net yards per play.   Miami scores a little more than Cinci but the Bengals have a little bit of a better defense.   Cincinnati has no reason to threaten their number 1 pick status in the draft by winning this game.   At least if they lose this they can retain their number 1 pick and beat rival Cleveland at home next weekend.

Miami -1 – 3 star premium shared play

College Football Bowl Plays December 20th – 24th

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

Dec. 20

Makers Wanted Bahamas Bowl
Buffalo vs. Charlotte +6.5 O/U 57
Thomas A. Robinson National Stadium
Nassau – Bahamas
2 p.m., ESPN/ESPN App |

This is your typical running team vs passing team matchup.  Buffalo runs and can stop the run.   Charlotte does run the ball some at 5 yards per carry but their defense is quite bad.
Lot’s of people are fading the Mac teams this year but I am not so sure that most of Conference USA is better than the Mac.  Buffalo has a .3 net yards per play advantage here but will they behave themselves in the Bahamas?

Lean Buffalo -6.5

Tropical Smoothie Cafe Frisco Bowl
Utah State vs. Kent State +6.5 O/U 65
Toyota Stadium
Frisco, Texas
7:30 p.m., ESPN2/ESPN App |

Kent State never make’s bowl games and I am very proud of these guys for doing so.  They made me some money this year from plays made before the season as well as during.   My Power Ratings have this game an 8.5 point spread here.   My question is how motivated is Utah State after a let down type season with a new coach?  It’s not like this game is by sandy beaches.   Another distraction just happened when a few Utah State players were busted for Marijuana.

Lean Kent State +6.5

Dec. 21

Mitsubishi Motors Las Vegas Bowl
Boise State vs. Washington -3 O/U 49.5
Sam Boyd Stadium
Las Vegas
7:30 p.m., ABC/ESPN App |

I find it strange that Chris Peterson got stuck coaching against his old team that kicked off his career for is last game at Washington.   Washington should be very motivated here to win one for their coach and Boise State is good in bowl games and hey belong here for winning their conference.  What worries me about the Washington side is that these players didn’t fair well down the stretch.  Boise State has a slight edge in yards per play over Washington but it’s not hard to see who had the harder schedule.

Lean Washington -3

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Appalachian State vs. UAB +16.5 O/U 48
New Orleans, Louisiana
9 p.m., ESPN/ESPN App |

I like Appalachian State here but I can’t really trust them in the second half.  I can see them playing all of their players up 23 points and giving up a TD or 2.  App State is a powerhouse in the Sun Belt averaging 40 points per game and only allowing 20.  They went to the ACC’s North Carolina and beat them, they went to SEC country playing South Carolina and beat them as well   UAB has has the easiest schedule in college football in a bad conference.  They only played one power 5 team in Tennessee and they lost by over 20 points to Tennessee.  The only thing that the Blazers can do ok is to run run the ball and the Mountaineers can stop that and especially against a weaker conference opponent.   Being that I can’t trust the Mountaineers to not give up garbage at the end, I will play them in the first half -9 ish.

New Mexico Bowl
Central Michigan vs. San Diego State -3.5 O/U 41
Dreamstyle Stadium
Albuquerque, New Mexico

I think the wrong team is favored here.  Going to New Mexico where San Diego State goes every year isn’t exactly a rewared.  When i bet the Aztecs over 8 wins this year I must say that it was based on their schedule.  This team is the most fraudulent 9-3 team in all of football.   Now they do have a good defense this year but  a very lethargic offense.   As a matter of fact, this offense is so bad that they are dead even in yards per play with a 9-3 record.  Not often when you see that.   I think avoiding Boise State, Wyoming and Air Force really helped them out this year.  Central Michigan has a coach that has been in the Mountain West at Colorado State and knows how to play a Rocky Long team.   The Chippewa’s are a .85 net yards per play here and their strength is against the run allowing only 3.3 yards per rush.  If they can score a few points here, I do not see how San Diego state can get back into this game.

Cure Bowl
Liberty vs. Georgia Southern -4.5 O/U 58
Exploria Stadium
Orlando, Florida
2:30 p.m., CBS Sports Network |

You might need a cure from depression after watching this game.  I really hope that I don’t have to watch this Bowl game.   Maybe I can finish Christmas shopping or something.  Liberty has had an easier schedule in whole than Georgia Southern in my opinion and are a positive .6 net yards per play.   Georgia Southern has a net negative .3 yards per play here.  Liberty has shown some flashes this year beating teams like Buffalo and keeping it within one score at BYU but they are probably the worst bowl team here.   Georgia Southern runs the option and their best win was against Appalachian State.   I have the Golden Eagles by 3 in my power ratings but the way to beat them is the pass and Liberty seems to be decent at that throwing for over 3400 yards this year.   The question is will Liberty capitalize on their possessions here against an option team.

Lean Liberty +4.5

Cheribundi Boca Raton Bowl
SMU vs. Florida Atlantic +3.5 O/U 70.5
FAU Stadium
Boca Raton, Florida
3:30 p.m., ABC/ESPN App |

Home game for Florida Atlantic – Ironically they played their last bowl appearance here 2 years ago and destroyed Akron.  Many people say that this is a great spot for SMU here and a Bad spot for Florida Atlantic due to Lane Kiffen moving on to Ole Miss and their defensive coordinator Glenn Spencer stepping in as Interim but I differ at bit here.   I think SMU had higher goals most of the year than this bowl game and may be less motitvated than some people think.  I also think these kids will want to play hard over in Boca Raton showing well for new coach Willy Taggert.   The best bet in this game is the over.  FAU averages 35 points per game and SMU averages 43.   Neither defense is good and both teams play fast.   FAU ranks 16th in plays per game at 77 and SMU ranks 3rd at 81.   I expect a shootout here.

Over 70.5 – 3 star premium shared

Camellia Bowl
Florida International vs. Arkansas State -2.5 O/U 62.5
Cramton Bowl
Montgomery, Alabama
5:30 p.m., ESPN/ESPN App |

I had such high hopes for FIU coming into this season.   I thought their defense would improve enough to be conference USA champions.   Not so much.   Arkansas State isn’t the high powered offense that we remember and both teams are pretty even in yards per play at about 0.  The intriguing thing about this matchup is that FIU is good against the pass and we know that Arkansas State is a passing team.   FIU is bad against the run and Arkansas state only averages 3.6 yards per carry.   Being that FIU can somewhat run the ball at 4.45 yards per carry and Arkansas State can’t stop the run allowing 5.11, they should be able to win this game if they don’t .  I am going to wait till a 3 pops for a small play

FIU +3 – 1 star

Dec. 23

Bad Boy Mowers Gasparilla Bowl
UCF vs. Marshall +17.5 O/U 61.5
Raymond James Stadium
Tampa, Florida
2:30 p.m., ESPN/ESPN App |

This is kind of a home game for Central Florida only being 100 miles away.  I saw a stat from Chris Fallica stating that there were 3 bowl favorites of 17.5 or more the last 15 years and they all covered.   Marshall is such a strange team to me.   Went to Boise and only lost by 7 yet they just lost at Charlotte a month ago.   My Power Ratings have this game UCF -13.25 if you don’t factor in home field.   Maybe 16 with home field giving a little bit back to Marshall.   I personally think that Marshall is just happy to make a bowl game here and they are a bit out of their league playing UFC.   They need to limit possessions this game in order to keep it closer by running the ball.   UCF has a pretty good defense on paper but this game is probably one that I won’t be involved with.   This is a lot of points for a Doc Holiday team who performs well in bowls.

No Play

Dec. 24

SoFi Hawai’i Bowl
Hawai’i vs. BYU -2.0 O/U 64
Aloha Stadium
Honolulu
8 p.m., ESPN/ESPN App

Home game for Hawaii but does that even matter?  Hard to Tell. There is a question here.   Is BYU that much different than Boise State this year?   I really don’t think so.  They had a much harder schedule in my opinion than Boise having to play Washington, USC, Utah, Tennessee.   The Toledo loss was Ugly but they really regrouped and ended up beating Boise State before going on a big run.   BYU plays the same way as Boise.  They can pound the ball and they play above average defense.   BYU also plays exceptionally well against the pass allowing only 200 passing yards per game ranking 36th in the nation.  That’s pretty good with their schedule.   Hawaii has to pass well to beat teams to it feeds right into BYU’s strength.   I think BYU pounds the ball down Hawaii’s throats this game.  My Power ratings have this game a 6.25 point spread and that is giving Hawaii 2 points of home field advantage.    I see BYU walking away with this one.

BYU -2 – 3 star premium shared

Thur CBB: Jackson St at Portland

By
Alan Cashman
-

Follow me on Twitter https://twitter.com/TheCashManWins

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8-3 last 11 plays posted here at The Odds Breakers

Jackson St at Portland 10:30 pm

Pick: Portland -4/Small

 

I liked a Portland a little when the line was -6.5 this morning.  Thought it might go good with a teaser paired with Prairie View. I did not fire on this.

 

However, Portland has now dropped to -4 home favorite here.  I have looked for some information on why this line has moved so much.  I can’t find anything. I definitely am cautious with such a line move. 

 

All 3 Analytics are projecting at least a 9 point win for Portland.  That would be too steep for me but -4 seems very reasonable. Jackson St has lost badly to much better teams.  They have 6 road losses of 15 or more points.  

 

Portland is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 at home. However, they  are 6-3 ATS in their last 9 overall.

 

I think this warrants a small look at Portland -4. 

 

College Football Bowl Betting Spots

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

Take all of this with a grain of salt.   It always depends on the number and this should only be part of your handicap.

December 20th

Makers Wanted Bahamas Bowl
Buffalo vs. Charlotte
Thomas A. Robinson National Stadium
Nassau – Bahamas
2 p.m., ESPN/ESPN App |

Both May be motivated Here but I hear that teams from the North tend to party a bit harder before this bowl.   Right Toledo from last year?

Tropical Smoothie Cafe Frisco Bowl
Utah State vs. Kent State
Toyota Stadium
Frisco, Texas
7:30 p.m., ESPN2/ESPN App |

Utah State had a disappointing season and I see less motivation for them here.   Kent State will be very motivated because they do not go to Bowls that much.

Dec. 21

Celebration Bowl
Alcorn State vs. North Carolina A&T
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Atlanta
Noon, ABC/ESPN App |

New Mexico Bowl
Central Michigan vs. San Diego State
Dreamstyle Stadium
Albuquerque, New Mexico

Cure Bowl
Liberty vs. Georgia Southern
Exploria Stadium
Orlando, Florida
2:30 p.m., CBS Sports Network |

Cheribundi Boca Raton Bowl
SMU vs. Florida Atlantic
FAU Stadium
Boca Raton, Florida
3:30 p.m., ABC/ESPN App | Home game for Florida Atlantic – Ironically they played their last bowl appearance here 2 years ago and destroyed Akron.   SMU may be less motivated because they deserve better

Camellia Bowl
Florida International vs. Arkansas State
Cramton Bowl
Montgomery, Alabama
5:30 p.m., ESPN/ESPN App |

Mitsubishi Motors Las Vegas Bowl
Boise State vs. Washington
Sam Boyd Stadium
Las Vegas
7:30 p.m., ABC/ESPN App | Washington lost their beloved coach Chris Peterson.

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Appalachian State vs. UAB
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
New Orleans
9 p.m., ESPN/ESPN App | Another crappy Matchup for Appalachian State but they keep kicking ass either way.   UAB should be motivated as well but is it enough?

Dec. 23

Bad Boy Mowers Gasparilla Bowl
UCF vs. Marshall
Raymond James Stadium
Tampa, Florida
2:30 p.m., ESPN/ESPN App | Home game for Central Florida

Dec. 24

SoFi Hawai’i Bowl
Hawai’i vs. BYU
Aloha Stadium
Honolulu
8 p.m., ESPN/ESPN App | Home game for Hawaii but does that even matter?  Hard to Tell.   BYU fans don’t drink!

Dec. 26

Walk-On’s Independence Bowl
Louisiana Tech vs. Miami
Independence Stadium
Shreveport, Louisiana
4 p.m., ESPN/ESPN App |Home game for Louisiana tech being only 1 hour away.   You would think Miami won’t be motivated here but they have been embarrassed once again this year.   LA tech will be motivated playing a power 5.

Quick Lane Bowl
Pittsburgh vs. Eastern Michigan
Ford Field
Detroit
8 p.m., ESPN/ESPN App | This is a home game for Eastern Michigan at 37 miles away.

Dec. 27

Military Bowl Presented by Northrop Grumman
North Carolina vs. Temple
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
Annapolis, Maryland
Noon, ESPN/ESPN App | More of Home game for Temple

New Era Pinstripe Bowl
Michigan State vs. Wake Forest
Yankee Stadium
New York
3:20 p.m., ESPN/ESPN App | Both of these teams are very disappointing

Academy Sports + Outdoors Texas Bowl
Oklahoma State vs. Texas A&M
NRG Stadium
Houston
6:45 p.m., ESPN/ESPN App | Home game for Texas A&M to help justify the SEC 😛

San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl
USC vs. Iowa
SDCCU Stadium
San Diego
8 p.m., Fox Sports 1 – Home game for USC here but Iowa people will travel well

Cheez-It Bowl
Air Force vs. Washington State
Chase Field
Phoenix
10:15 p.m., ESPN/ESPN App |

Dec. 28

Camping World Bowl
Notre Dame vs. Iowa State
Camping World Stadium
Orlando, Florida
Noon, ABC/ESPN App | Will someone sit out this game?

Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
Penn State vs. Memphis
AT&T Stadium
Arlington, Texas
Noon, ESPN/ESPN App | Penn State could have some players sitting out.

College Football Playoff Semifinal at the PlayStation Fiesta Bowl
No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Clemson
State Farm Stadium
Glendale, Arizona
4 or 8 p.m., ESPN/ESPN App |

College Football Playoff Semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
No. 1 LSU vs. No. 4 Oklahoma
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Atlanta
4 or 8 p.m., ESPN/ESPN App |

Dec. 30

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Western Kentucky vs. Western Michigan
Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Dallas
12:30 p.m., ESPN/ESPN App |

Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl
Mississippi State vs. Louisville
Nissan Stadium
Nashville, Tennessee
4 p.m., ESPN/ESPN App | More of a home game for Louisville with only a 2 hour drive away

Redbox Bowl
California vs. Illinois
Levi’s Stadium
Santa Clara, California – Home game for Cal for sure
4 p.m., FOX

Capital One Orange Bowl
Florida vs. Virginia
Hard Rock Stadium
Miami Gardens, Florida
8 p.m., ESPN/ESPN App | Home game for Florida but still a drive of 4.5 hours from campus

Dec. 31

Belk Bowl
Virginia Tech vs. Kentucky
Bank of America Stadium
Charlotte, North Carolina
Noon, ESPN/ESPN App | More of a home game for Va Tech with a 2.5 hour drive.

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Florida State vs. Arizona State
Sun Bowl Stadium
El Paso, Texas
2 p.m., CBS

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Navy vs. Kansas State
Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium
Memphis, Tennessee
3:45 p.m., ESPN/ESPN App |

NOVA Home Loans Arizona Bowl
Wyoming vs. Georgia State
Arizona Stadium
Tucson, Arizona
4:30, CBS Sports Network |

Valero Alamo Bowl
Utah vs. Texas
Alamodome
San Antonio
7:30 p.m., ESPN/ESPN App | More of a home game for Texas here.  Will Utah have any motivation?

Jan. 1, 2020

Vrbo Citrus Bowl
Michigan vs. Alabama
Camping World Stadium
Orlando, Florida
1 p.m., ABC/ESPN App | Alabama may not be motivated but Michigan should be very motivated.

Outback Bowl
Minnesota vs. Auburn
Raymond James Stadium
Tampa, Florida
1 p.m., ESPN/ESPN App |

Rose Bowl Game presented by Northwestern Mutual
Oregon vs. Wisconsin
Rose Bowl
Pasadena, California
5 p.m., ESPN/ESPN App |

Allstate Sugar Bowl
Georgia vs. Baylor
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
New Orleans
8:45 p.m., ESPN/ESPN App | Home game for Georgia but no reward.  They just played here and lost bad to LSU.  Players may sit out here.

Jan. 2

TicketSmarter Birmingham Bowl
Boston College vs. Cincinnati
Legion Field
Birmingham, Alabama
3 p.m., ESPN/ESPN App |

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
Indiana vs. Tennessee
TIAA Bank Field
Jacksonville, Florida
7 p.m., ESPN/ESPN App |

Jan. 3

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Ohio vs. Nevada
Albertsons Stadium
Boise, Idaho
3:30 p.m., ESPN/ESPN App | More of a home game for Nevada but not a good reward for either team.

Jan. 4

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Southern Mississippi vs. Tulane
Amon G. Carter Stadium
Fort Worth, Texas
11:30 a.m., ESPN/ESPN App |

Jan. 6

LendingTree Bowl
Louisiana vs. Miami (Ohio)
Ladd-Peebles Stadium
Mobile, Alabama
7:30 p.m., ESPN/ESPN App |

Podcast 76 – 19 – With Kyle Hunter – College Football Bowls & NFL Week 15 Plays – Sharp Movement – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

We have a fantastic show for you today.  Kyle Hunter @kylehunterpicks from  Bettersportspicks.com comes on to break down some early bowl games and some HUGE college basketball games for this weekend!  First, Kyle talks about how conferences have fared over the last three years ATS.   Next, Kyle talks about totals trends within all the bowl games and some stadium specific.  Then, the guys get into the college football playoff teams and their respective spreads.  Next, Kiev and Kyle talk about bowl games and give out some GREAT PLAYS. Then, the guys talk NCAA Hoops for this weekend.  Finally, Kiev gives out NFL plays and goes over the sharp line movement in the #NCAA & #NFL.

NCAA:  Clemson vs Ohio State – LSU vs Oklahoma – BYU vs Hawaii – UCF vs Marshall and more!

NFL:  Cincinnati vs Miami – Oakland vs LA Chargers and more!

College Hoops:  Kansas vs Villanova – Ohio State vs Kentucky

#AAC #ACC #Big12 #Big10 #CUSA #MAC #MWC #Pac12 #SEC #Sunbelt

#Sportsbetting #Gamblingtwitter #NCAA #NFL

Should you need a sports book please visit www.mybookie.ag and use the promo code, “theoddsbreakers” to get a 100% sign up bonus!  Terms and conditions apply.

www.theoddsbreakers.com

For only 17.99 a month become an ODDSBREAKER’S MEMBER and gain access to all premium picks BEFORE the line moves please visit www.theoddsbreakers.com or for $19.99 per month get all of that while adding access to the podcast early by becoming our Patreon at https://www.patreon.com/join/theoddsbreakers?

Follow us on Twitter @theoddsbreakers @OBKiev #theoddsbreakers

Fantasy Football 2019 Championship Week

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

5 most disappointing running backs – .5 PPR

  1. Saquon Barkley finished 14th and was the overall first pick
  2. Alvin Kamara finished 18th and was top 3 pick
  3. David Johnson was top 10 and finished 33rd
  4. Laveon Bell finished 16th and was top 10
  5. Davonte Freeman finished 25th and was a top 15 pick

5 most disappointing wide receivers:

  1. Devonte Adams WR – top 2 WR picked finished 29th in the rankings
  2. JuJu Smith Schuster top 2 rounds and finished 59th
  3. Odell Beckham top 8 WR finished 32nd – Landry was better
  4. Antonio Brown – Didn’t play most of the year due to his crazy head
  5. TY Hilton WR – Injuries plagued him

5 most disappointing tight ends:

  1. OJ Howard WR – top 5 guy and finished 30th
  2. Evan Engram – so much talent ad top 5 pick but injuries plagued him
  3. Vance McDonald – was a top 8 tight end but didn’t even finish top 25
  4. Eric Ebron – another injury laden guy
  5. David N’Joku – sucked even when not injured

5 most disappointing QBs

  1. Andrew Luck – Decided not to play after most people drafted
  2. Baker Mayfield – The hype train didn’t go through
  3. Carson Wentz – Not the MVP everyone thought and finished 11th
  4. Ben Roethlisberger – Bad early injury
  5. Mitch Trubisky – Nagy didn’t turn out to be that good for him

Key Injuries:

Dalvin Cook RB – Shoulder injury and its not good

Chris Godwin WR – Hamstring injury and most likely will miss time

Scott Miller WR – Tampa’s backup for Godwin is also injured with a hamstring

Waiver Wire:

Mike Boone RB – for the Delvin Cook injury

Alexander Mattison RB – for the Cook injury if he is available

Greg Ward WR – Had a good game with Alshawn out

Danny Amendola WR – only owned in 25% of leagues and had 13 targets last week.

Anthony Miller WR – 15 targets and he is due to take over as a top WR

James Washington WR – had 11 targets for Pittsburgh

Steven Sims Jr. WR – 11 Targets and a TD for the Redskins

Cameron Brate TE – may be one of the few pass catchers left

Breshad Perriman WR – We said this last week but not a must own with Godwin out

Chris Conley WR – Playing a bad Atlanta secondary

Colts D – Playing Carolina at home

Denver D – Playing Detroit

Miami’s D – Playing the Bengals

Non Starters trending up for Week 16

Breshad Perriman WR – Pass catcher for Bucs

Cameron Brate TE – Pass Catcher for Bucs

Raheem Mostert RB – He’s the new man in San Francisco playing the Rams who got run up on last week.

Chris Conley WR – vs Atlanta’s bad D

Jarvis Landry WR – bounce back vs the Ravens

Marlon Mack RB – vs the Panthers bad D

Patrick Laird RB – vs a bad Bengals D

Greg Ward WR – needs a big game vs Big D

Mike Boone RB – playing the Packers at home

Phillip Lindsey RB – vs a bad Lions D

Busts:

Aaron Jones RB – vs the Vikings great D

Derek Henry RB – vs a Saints great run D

Todd Gurley RB – vs a pissed off 49ers team

Sam Darnold RB  – vs the Steelers sack D

Carlos Hyde RB – vs a tough Tampa Bay run D

Nasty Sleeper:  Patrick Laird vs the Bengals terrible run D and Chris Conley vs the Falcons

 

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