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Podcast 75 – 19 – NFL Week 15 Recap – Men’s Big 10 Basketball Rankings – Fantasy Football Championship Week – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

0-1 in College Football last week, 5-5-1 in the NFL and 5-1 in College Hoops.  We have a great show for you today!  First, Kiev Recaps the Army/Navy game and NFL week 15.  Next, Kiev give’s us his updated big 10 Men’s hoops rankings.  Then,  Kiev gives out a FREE PICK for the College Football Bowls!  D-Nasty comes in to discuss fantasy football and the top 5 busts at each position throughout the whole year.   Key injuries and waiver pick-ups.  Players trending up and busts for week 16.

#AAC #ACC #Big12 #Big10 #CUSA #MAC #MWC #Pac12 #SEC #Sunbelt

#Sportsbetting #Gamblingtwitter #NCAA #NFL

Should you need a sports book please visit www.Jazzsports.ag and use the promo code, “oddsbreakers” to get a 100% sign up bonus!  Terms and conditions apply.

www.theoddsbreakers.com

For only 17.99 a month become an ODDSBREAKER’S MEMBER and gain access to all premium picks BEFORE the line moves please visit www.theoddsbreakers.com or for $19.99 per month get all of that while adding access to the podcast early by becoming our Patreon at https://www.patreon.com/join/theoddsbreakers?

Follow us on Twitter @theoddsbreakers @OBKiev #theoddsbreakers

NFL Week 15 Free Plays

By
Kiev O'Neil
-
NFL Logo is seen on the goal post padding before an NFL preseason football game between the Detroit Lions and the New York Jets at Ford Field in Detroit, Thursday, Aug. 13, 2015. (AP Photo/Rick Osentoski)

Chicago vs Green Bay -4.5 O/U 40.5

So here we are back to a huge rivalry game.  Chicago is fighting to stay alive for playoff contention and Green Bay is trying to find a first round bye week.   I think what we are seeing out of Green bay is that they have a great plan for each game and scheme their way to a great first half showing.   The problem is that when teams adjust, they seem to not be able to put teams away.   The Packers are a much better home team than road team being a positive .6 yards per play while in total they are a net negative -.5.   This is something that does have me concerned but what I am banking on here is that the Bears have improved the last few games and Mitch is starting to run the ball LIKE I HAVE BEEN ASKING HIM TO DO ALL YEAR.   I think with the desperation of the Bears that they can keep this game close in Green Bay.   I also think that Mitch will get some rushing years here so I will take a 2 star prop on him rushing for over 19 yards ish.

Chicago +4.5 – 2 star premium shared and Mitch over his rushing total – 2 stars

Jacksonville vs Oakland -6.5 O/U 45.5

Jacksonville is out playoff contention at 4-9 and now they get rewarded for their terrible play and get to travel across the country.   Oakland has been on a bad run lately and will be without Josh Jacobs but they are still mathematically in this and I think Gruden rally’s this team.   This play is more about Jacksonville than Oakland.   The Jaguar’s have lost by double digits in each of their last 5 games.   Their defense is terrible and their offense is lethargic.  The only thing that they can do is run the ball from time to time but that is actually the Raiders strength in their defense allowing 4.1 yards per rushing attempt.   Now DJ Chark is not going to play for the Jaguars and they also lost their guard Brandon Thomas.    I like the mustache Garner Minshew as much as anybody, but his coming of age will have to wait until next season when his team is healthier.

Oakland -6.5 – 2 star premium shared

NY Jets vs Baltimore Ravens -14.5 O/U 45

Thursday night game.   I really don’t love laying huge chalk but I may have to here.  My Power ratings have this game at 17 points.   The Ravens are first at rushing yards per attempt at 5.5 and the Jets are worst at 3.3.   They may not even play Laveon Bell much so they don’t hurt his trade value here.  The Ravens have a 1 net yard per play advantage here which is large in the NFL.   What is even more glaring is that the Ravens have had the 7th hardest schedule in football while the Jet’s schedule ranks DEAD LAST at 32.  I haven’t layed this much juice yet this year but for me I think it may be time.   If you look at the Jet’s injury report it is pages long.  Jet’s got their revenge against the Dolphins last week and I will take the Ravens to blow them out of town this week.

Baltimore Ravens -14 – 2 star premium

College Basketball 12/12 Premium Shared Play

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

Iowa vs Iowa State -4 O/U 157

I love this game.  Such a great rivalry early in the season.   What I have noticed out of Iowa this year is that they really have seemed to grow up.   Senior Jordan Bohannon is back and a leader on this team.   Jaybo was such a clutch performer from last year.   Joe Wieskamp is nailing tre’s at 42% and Luka Garza is a force inside.   Iowa State is a good team as well beating Seton Hall on Thursday after losing to them only 10 days beforehand.  What we don’t see in that victory is that Seton Hall lost their star forward Sandro Mamukelashvili 5 minute’s into that game and it affected the outcome.  This spread is a bit inflated due to that win.   Iowa State was very good last year but their loss of Marial Shayok is very hard to replace.   I know that they have a good home court advantage but there should also be some Iowa fans showing up here in this caliber of a rivalry.   I have Iowa the better team right now.   They rank 4th on kenpom in offensive efficiency and Iowa State ranks 27th.   The Cyclone’s also struggle at shooting the 3 which is something that they need this game facing Iowa’s height inside.   Taking the Hawkeye’s and ML

Iowa +4 2 star premium and sprinkle the ML

Podcast 74 – 19 – With Marco D’Angelo – College Football Bowls Preview & NFL Week 15 Plays – Army vs Navy – Sharp Movement – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

We have a fantastic show for you today.  Marco D’Angelo from www.wagertalk.com comes on to break down some College Football bowl games and some NFL! First, Marco and Kiev talk about the differences between capping college football regular season with bowl weeks.   What do you look for between the lines?   What outside factors can greatly influence the results of these games?  Next the guys get into the college football playoff teams and their respective spreads.  Then, Kiev and Marco talk about some of the first few bowl games and give out some plays. Next, the guys talk NFL and give out some plays.  Then, Kiev gives out his free plays for Army vs Navy and NFL Football.  Finally, we go over the sharp line movement in the #NFL.

NCAA:  Army vs Navy – Buffalo vs Charlotte – Appalachian State vs UAB and more!

NFL:  NY Jets vs Baltimore – Cleveland vs Arizona – Buffalo vs Pittsburgh and more!

#AAC #ACC #Big12 #Big10 #CUSA #MAC #MWC #Pac12 #SEC #Sunbelt

#Sportsbetting #Gamblingtwitter #NCAA #NFL

Should you need a sports book please visit www.mybookie.ag and use the promo code, “theoddsbreakers” to get a 100% sign up bonus!  Terms and conditions apply.

www.theoddsbreakers.com

For only 17.99 a month become an ODDSBREAKER’S MEMBER and gain access to all premium picks BEFORE the line moves please visit www.theoddsbreakers.com or for $19.99 per month get all of that while adding access to the podcast early by becoming our Patreon at https://www.patreon.com/join/theoddsbreakers?

Follow us on Twitter @theoddsbreakers @OBKiev #theoddsbreakers

Fantasy Football Week 15

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

Key Injuries:

  • Derrius Guice RB – Sprained MCL
  • Calvin Ridley WR – Abdominal and out for season
  • Mike Evans WR – Grade 2 Hamstring sprain – out for year
  • Jared Cook TE – Concussion
  • Patrick Mahomes QB – Right hand is banged up
  • Davante Parker WR – Concussion
  • Albert Wilson WR – Concussion
  • Josh Jacobs RB – Inactive, missed last game – Broken bone in shoulder
  • Ryan Griffen TE – Ankle and left last game
  • Rashaad Penny RB – ACL injury and out for season
  • Alshawn Jeffrey WR – Carted off of the field
  • Mark Andrews TE – Knee injury
  • DJ Chark WR – Ankle Injury

Waiver Wire:

  • Adrian Peterson RB – for Guice Injury
  • Boston Scott RB – Looked great for the Eagles
  • Dionte Johnson WR – if Smith Shuster remains out
  • DeAndre Washington RB – For Josh Jacobs Injury
  • Justin Watson WR – 8 Targets for Tampa after Evans went out
  • Willie Snead WR – Baltimore is playing the Jets
  • Breshard Perriman WR – For Evans injury
  • Ian Thomas TE – Had a great day taking over for Greg Olsen’s woes
  • Allen Hurns WR – May be the only pass Catcher for Miami this week!
  • Kansas City D – vs Denver at home
  • Oakland’s D – vs Jacksonville and they may be pissed about last week

Non-Starters Trending up for Week 15

  • Marquis Brown WR – Playing the Jets this week
  • Sonny Michelle RB – Playing the Bengals this week
  • AJ Brown WR – Has been a STUD with 153 yards and 2 TDs
  • Courtland Sutton WR – vs the Chiefs this week
  • Allen Hurns WR – vs the Giants D
  • Zach Ertz TE – vs the Redskins may have a game
  • Terry McLaurin WR vs the Eagles
  • De’Andre Washington WR – vs the Jaguars
  • Jarvis Landry WR – vs the Cardinals with Peterson on Beckham
  • Emmanual Sanders WR – vs the Falcons bad D

Busts:

  • Matt Ryan QB – vs the 49ers
  • Melvin Gordon RB – vs the Vikings
  • Aaron Jones RB – vs the Bears with Akiem Hicks back
  • Sam Darnold QB – vs the Ravens
  • Carlos Hyde RB – vs the Titans
  • Joe Mixen RB – vs the Patriots
  • Marlon Mack RB vs the Saints
  • Josh Allen QB – vs the Steelers

Nasty Sleeper of the Week:   Allen Hurns WR for Miami & De’Andre Washington RB – vs the Jaguars

 

 

Podcast 73 – 19 – College Football Championship Week & NFL Week 14 Recap – Fantasy Football Week 15 Playoffs – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

6-5 in College Football last week and 6-3-1 in the NFL. We have a great show for you today!  First, Kiev talks about how he fared off of our future bets.  Next we talk College and NFL recap of last week.  That Ryan Tannehill is so hot right now.  Then, Kiev give’s out a sneak peak of the bowl games discussing some motivational and travel spots.  Next, Kiev gives out a FREE PICK for the College Football Bowls!  D-Nasty comes in to discuss fantasy football week 15 and who to play for your next round of playoffs!  Key injuries and waiver pick-ups.   Players trending up and busts for week 15.

#AAC #ACC #Big12 #Big10 #CUSA #MAC #MWC #Pac12 #SEC #Sunbelt

#Sportsbetting #Gamblingtwitter #NCAA #NFL

Should you need a sports book please visit www.Jazzsports.ag and use the promo code, “oddsbreakers” to get a 100% sign up bonus!  Terms and conditions apply.

www.theoddsbreakers.com

For only 17.99 a month become an ODDSBREAKER’S MEMBER and gain access to all premium picks BEFORE the line moves please visit www.theoddsbreakers.com or for $19.99 per month get all of that while adding access to the podcast early by becoming our Patreon at https://www.patreon.com/join/theoddsbreakers?

Follow us on Twitter @theoddsbreakers @OBKiev #theoddsbreakers

NFL Week 14 Free Plays

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

Baltimore vs Buffalo +6 O/U 43

Baltimore beat some great teams the last few weeks and they deserve to be number 1 but is Buffalo really that bad to warrant a 9 point difference in the power ratings?   Everyone called them fake news last week and they went ahead and kicked the crap out of the Cowboys at AT&T stadium under the spotlight.   My power ratings have this spread at a +3.5 so I think you are paying a premium on Lamar Jackson.   At saying that, I also think that this total is a bit too low.   Buffalo has played the easiest schedule in the league so far and I do not believe that allowing only 16 points per game and 5.1 yards per play is quite correct here.   This total is actually very low for a Lamar Jackson led Baltimore team being that they average 6.4 yards per play and 33 points per game.   The Bills have their own running quarterback threat so they should be able to keep up a bit with the Ravens.  The Ravens D isn’t is good on paper as everyone says it is.  They give up 5.8 yards per play themselves and 230 passing yards per game.   Part of the reason the Ravens blow out teams is because they play at such a high Pace.   The Bills play at an above average pace themselves.  I see some points here in this game but I am also waiting on the public to hammer on the Ravens so I can hit the Bills at a better number.    In the mean time, take the over.

Baltimore vs Buffalo over 43 – 2 star premium shared play

Pittsburgh vs Arizona +2.5 O/U 43.5

So the Cardinals got their asses handed to them last week vs a very pissed off Rams team and I think it really affected the perception of this team.  The Cardinals are on the up and up a month and a half ago and their last 5 games really didn’t help them much.   The last 5 weeks they had to play the Saints, The 49ers twice, at Tampa and the Rams.   Hardest stretch in football if you ask me.  Now they get to regroup a little and play a middle of the road Steelers team who hasn’t had much consistency at Quarterback.   Pittsburgh is a different team on the road than at home.   They have a net negative -1 yard per play on the road and only averages 4.7 yards per play.   The Cardinals average 5.4 yards per play at home and even though they give up a league worst 6.7 and I have to think that they will step up this game after that embarrassing loss against a lack luster offense with back up running backs starting.   Arizona’s weakness is against the pass more than the run and I am not sure that JuJu Smith-Shuster will be healthy this game.    We can’t forget that the Cardinals can score points an they will only need so much to beat this Pittsburgh team.  The Steelers haven’t faced an elusive QB since week 2 at home vs Russell Wilson with Big Ben at the helm.   I think the Cardinals can win this game outright.

Arizona +2.5 – 2 star premium shared

Carolina vs Atlanta -3 O/U 47.5

Bad defense vs bad defense in a dome?  Sign me up!  These teams give up 6 yards per play and 27 points per game on offense in while being somewhat average in scoring points per game.   This tells me that they should be giving up about the same.   The Panthers as we all know fired coach Rivera but I think the team liked him and will rally this game and put up some points.  The problem is will they be able to stop Atlanta on defense with all of their D Line injuries.   Atlanta themselves are pretty brutal against the pass on D allowing 260 passing yards per game and 7.7 yards per attempt.  I can see Kyle Allen playing a good game in the Dome here and getting some points in a rivalry game.   It looks like Julio should be back this game for Atlanta so I like the over.

Carolina vs Atlanta over 47.5 – 2 star premium shared play

 

College Football Championship Week Free Plays

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

Virginia vs Clemson -28.5 O/U 54.5

Clemson shows the best defense in college football but we haven’t realize that they also have had the easiest schedule out of any top 25 team and probably any power 5 team.  The second and third best teams in ACC are Virginia and Virginia tech and Clemson hasn’t had to play them until now.   Virginia has had their own problems this year when Bryce Perkins was playing through injury but after that, they ended up being a much better scoring team.   Their last 6 games they averaged 39 points per game.   I think that they should be able to hang at least 20 in a losing effort against Clemson even though their numbers show them holding teams to 10 points per game.   On the other side of the coin, Clemson averages 45 points per game and Virginia’s defense is very average when it in  college football.   I can see this game being 44-21 marking a play to the Virginia side but more importantly I like the over 54.5 points much better.   Clemson can probably put 54 points up all by themselves if they wanted to.

Virginia +28.5 – 1 star premium shared & over 54.5 – 2 star premium shared

Georgia vs LSU -7 O/U 54

Why is Georgia number 4 in my power ratings?  The answer is because THEY SHOULD BE.  I don’t understand all this movement against Georgia here lately.   Sure they haven’t played Alabama or LSU this year, but they at least beat Florida in the State of Florida, Notre Dame at home, and at an Auburn team who just beat Alabama.   The final score of that Auburn game also doesn’t tell the true story because Georgia had complete control the whole game.   LSU is a great team and Joe Burrow probably deserves to be Heisman but what Georgia has here is not only experience with their QB Jake Fromm being in this position, they also have top talent and a BETTER DEFENSE than LSU.   Georgia only allows 4.1 yard per play and 10.4 points per game while LSU allows 5.1 yards per play and 22 points per game.   Sure, LSU scores a lot but they haven’t really played a real defense since Auburn and only hanging 23 points against them.   LSU has a .6 net yard per play advantage due to their offense averaging 1.6 yards per play more than Georgia but that has to do with the fact that they play at a much higher pace than Georgia.  Ed Orgeron has done a great job this year and there is no doubt of that but he hasn’t been put in a position like this before.  As bad as Kirby Smart is during the game, he does have the experience here.  Lastly, Georgia is more desperate in this situation.  They win they are in the playoffs while LSU can afford to lose this one.

Georgia +7 – 3 star premium shared play and sprinkle 

College Football Misleading Final Scores

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

Western Michigan vs Northern Illinois – Western Michigan outgained NIU by 98 yards yet lost by 3 with an even turnover ratio.

Ole Miss vs Mississippi State – Ole Miss outgained Mississippi State by 66 yards yet lost by 1 point due to a 3-1 turnover ratio.

Georgia State vs Georgia Southern – Georgia Southern only outgained Georgia State by only 62 yards yet won by 28.  No Turnovers.   Just bad efficiency by Georgia State.

Boise State vs Colorado State – Colorado State outgained Boise by 35 yards yet lost by 7 due to a 2-0 turnover ratio.

Washington State vs Washington – Washington State was only outgained by 3 yards yet lost by 18 due to a 3-1 turnover ratio and terrible redzone efficiency.

West Virginia vs TCU – TCU outgained West Virginia by 53 yards yet lost by 3 points.  They also won the turnover battle.

Wake Forest vs Syracuse – Wake outgained Cuse by 131 yards yet lost by 9 in overtime due to a TD return.  Crazy finish.

Alabama vs Auburn – Bama outgained Auburn by 161 yards yet lost by 3 points.  2-1 turnover ratio and a missed FG hurt them bad.   They are out of the playoffs.  Someone please call Phyllis.

Oregon State vs Oregon – Oregon State outgained Oregon by 15 yards yet lost by 14 with an even turnover ratio.  Oregon did have control of the game but it was a big spread.

Tulane vs SMU – Tulane outgained SMU by 92 yards yet lost by 17.

BYU vs San Diego State – BYU outgained San Diego State by 147 yards yet lost by 10.  3-0 turnover ratio.  Hit my San Diego State win total over 8 on this baby.  Look to fade them in their bowl game.

Arizona vs Arizona State – Arizona outgained ASU by 50 yards yet lost by 10 due to a 3-0 turnover ratio.  If Arizona is not in this column then something is wrong.

Army vs Hawaii – Army outgained Hawaii by 46 yards yet lost by 21 – 2-0 turnover ratio did them in.   Army has not been that disciplined team that we all remember.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

12/7 Conference USA Championship Game

By
Alan Cashman
-

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Twitter @TheCashmanwins https://twitter.com/TheCashManWins

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7-3 last 10 picks posted here at The Oddsbreakers.com

Conference USA Championship

UAB at FAU  Saturday 1:30 pm

Pick: FAU -6.5/-135  Medium (Bought 1 pt from -7.5)

Hard not to see FAU covering this at home.  UAB has had a nice season, they play good defense #5 in the nation but they have beat up on some weaker teams and have struggled against teams who are just ahead of them offensively, mainly Tennessee and Southern Miss.

FAU started off the season with 2 very hard games vs UCF and at Ohio St, both big losses. Since then, they have covered -6.5 in 9 of 10 games.  

There are 2 common opponents that were pretty good this year that stand out to me

 

Western KY

UAB 13

WKU 20

 

FAU 35 

WKU 24 

 

Southern Miss

 

UAB 2

USM 37

 

USM 17

FAU 34

 

UAB QB Johnston is questionable but I don’t think it would make much of a difference.  FAU has the clear edge at QB and on offense in general. Johnston had a TD/INT ratio of 7/11 in his previous 5 games before his injury.  FAU QB Robison threw for 3,100 yards and 22/5 TD/INT this season.  

UAB struggled at home against a depleted LA Tech team and only scored a 20-14 win 2 weeks ago.   They have less than 600 yards passing combined over the last 5 games.  

FAU beat a pretty good USM team last week, convincingly, 34-17 and holding USM to 258 total yards.  .  

FAU is +10 in net turnovers in their last 4 games

Spencer Brown leads UAB in rushing yards but only gains 3.9 ypc.  Malcolm Davidson leads FAU in rushing and averages 6.4 ypc

I think FAU very well could win this by double digits.  I don’t see UAB being able to keep up on the road against this team.

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