Home Blog Page 604

Podcast 69 – 19 – College Football Wk 13 & NFL Wk 12 Recap – NCAA Betting Spots for Week 14 – Fantasy Football Week 13 – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

Today was a good day!  10-8-1 in College Football last week and 10-5 in the NFL!  We have a great show for you today!  First, we do a College and NFL recap of last week and then get into a quick preview of some of the huge games for College Football Week 14!  Next, Kiev talks a little more about Chase Young and the roll he will play next week and in the 2020 NFL Draft.  Then, Kiev talks about some misleading final scores from College Football last week.  Next, Kiev gets into some let down, get up and look ahead spots for College Football week 14.  Finally,  we go over our Big 10 power ratings and Kiev gives out a FREE PICK for week 14!  D-Nasty comes in to discuss fantasy football week 13.  Key injuries and waiver pick-ups.   Players trending up and busts for week 13.  We must make our playoffs!

#AAC #ACC #Big12 #Big10 #CUSA #MAC #MWC #Pac12 #SEC #Sunbelt

#Sportsbetting #Gamblingtwitter #NCAA #NFL

Should you need a sports book please visit www.Jazzsports.ag and use the promo code, “oddsbreakers” to get a 100% sign up bonus!  Terms and conditions apply.

www.theoddsbreakers.com

For only 17.99 a month become an ODDSBREAKER’S MEMBER and gain access to all premium picks BEFORE the line moves please visit www.theoddsbreakers.com or for $19.99 per month get all of that while adding access to the podcast early by becoming our Patreon at https://www.patreon.com/join/theoddsbreakers?

Follow us on Twitter @theoddsbreakers @OBKiev #theoddsbreakers

NFL Week 12 Free Plays

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

Tampa Bay vs Atlanta -4.5 O/U 51.5

Here is a spot where my power ratings have this as pickem, yet Tampa is a dog by 4.5 points.   Tampa Bay surely knows how to shoot themselves in the foot this year but the score you saw last week against the Saints didn’t tell the whole story.   The Buccaneers had this game close until Jameis Winston through a pick 6 sealing the game for New Orleans.  The Buccaneers actually outgained the Saints by a few yards here.   The Falcons have been hot their last 2 games but now that they are coming back home they are in a flat spot playing Tampa Bay when they have New Orleans on deck again.  I think Tampa Bay keeps this game closer than the 4.5 points says if they do not win it outright.  Bruce Ahriens is too good of a coach not to bounce back against a limited Falcons D.

Tampa Bay +4.5 – 2 star premium shared play

Green Bay vs San Francisco -3 O/U 47.5

This one really stood out to me.   Yes I know that the 49ers are a bit banged up but at the same time, they still have Jimmy G throwing the ball and some more than capable backup receivers if Sandersd and Kittle doesn’t play.   My Power ratings has the 49ers favored by 5 points at home vs the Packers.   Now we all know that Aaron Rodgers is a very good QB but there are 2 sides of the Packers that hasn’t been easy to see.  Many of Green Bay’s big wins have been at home and the second half of the Packers schedule is tough.   Green Bay is at an amazing 6.5 yards per play at home, but when on the road, they are at a measly 4.7 while giving up 6.2 on defense.   San Francisco is at 5.7 yards per play at home and only give up 4.2.   Now that is a 3 yards per play difference in home road splits.   If you just looked at this you would think that the 49ers should be favored by 15 points.   I can’t ignore this big of a discrepancy and have to Bet the 49ers and I also like the Under 47.5 being that the Niners have such a great defense.

San Francisco -3 – 3 star premium shared play and under 47.5 – 2 star premium shared play

 

Quick Hitter:  New England -6.5 – 2 star premium shared – How can the Patriots be Road favorites at Philadelphia by -3.5 points yet only home favorites to Dallas at -6.5 points?   This spread tells me that they would be favored by -9.5 points against the Eagles at home and I do not think there is a 3 point difference between Dallas and Philly.   Dallas is another team who hasn’t fared well on the road.   Belichick vs Garrett tells me enough.   

New England -6.5 – 2 star premium shared

Nashville at St. Louis NHL 11/23

By
Alan Cashman
-

St. Louis -125/Small

  • STL are 7-1 in their last 8 games following a win.
  • STL are 9-3 in their last 12 overall.
  • STL are 6-2 in their last 8 home games.
 Home team is 22-7 in the last 29 meetings.

NAS are 4-11 in the last 15 meetings in St. Louis

 

Temple at Cincinnati Week 13 CFB

By
Alan Cashman
-

 

Follow me on Twitter @TheCashmanwins https://twitter.com/TheCashManWins

Follow Cashman on Facebook https://www.facebook.com/CashmanSports/

 

Temple at Cincinnati  7 pm Saturday

Pick: Temple +10.5

 

Analytics: 3 Agree

Temple has won last 4 meetings

Temple has covered +10.5 in last 5 meetings

Cincinnati 6-16 ATS vs teams with a winning record

Road team 7-2 ATS last 9 meetings

 

These teams don’t seem that far apart right now.  Cincinnati probably will be able to run the ball but I think Temple will be able to move the ball through the air.  Cincinnati is allowing nearly 300 pass yards per game over their last 3 games.  

 

The numbers over the entire course of the season and over the last 3 games are not necessarily there for Temple but Temple had a bad 2 game stretch against SMU and UCF bounced back to win at USF and then covered +6 and won straight up at home last week vs Tulane.

 

Looking at common opponents, outside of UCF who Cincinnati won at home against and Temple was blown out against in 2 game stretch where the Owls did not play well, Temple looks to have the better results and against a couple of teams who are not very good.

 

ECU

Cincinnati went to ECU, won 46-43 but got outgained by 164 yards by…..ECU!  Temple went to ECU and won 27-17, outgaining the Pirates by 163 yards.  

 

USF

Both teams have road wins at USF.  Cincinnati won 20-17, Temple won 17-7, bouncing back from those 2 bad losses from SMU and UCF.  Temple outgained USF by 34 yards while CIncinnati was again outgained, this time by 160 yards. USF led 10-0 at the half against the Bearcats.

 

Cincinnati has been outgained by opponents in 5 of their last 6 games.  

 

Temple before their 2 game slide had a home win over a pretty good Memphis team.  Temple has won their last 2 games including a straight up win at home over Tulane last week as a 6 point dog.

 

Doesn’t seem like Cincinnati is improving over the course of the season.   They are beating teams on their schedule that they should beat. Ridder at QB has regressed a little from last season.  He has completed less than 60% of his passes and has 2 more INT’s than he did last season. He only had 78 passing yards at USF last week.  He hasn’t completed 60 % of his passes in a game since Wk 5 at Marshall, one of his best career days. Ridder has not passed for over 200 yards since Wk 7

 

Temple still has a chance to win the AAC East with a win so they have a lot to play for in this one.

Ravens at Rams : Monday Night Football

By
Alan Cashman
-

Follow me on Twitter @TheCashmanwins

Baltimore at LA Rams 

Pick: Bal -2.5/Lean  (Buying ½ pt to protect against a push at -3)

Don’t play a lot of NFL road favorites but Baltimore is a team to get behind right now until they slip up.  I really liked them vs Houston last week and I passed on it and kicked myself over it.  

Baltimore has scored 30 or more in 4 straight games while allowing 20 or fewer points in that span.  They are 4-0 ATS as well in that period. Lamar Jackson has thrown 1 INT in his last 5 games. He has completed over 70% of his passes in each of his last 3 games.  Jackson is avg nearly 7 ypc running the ball as well. He’s run for over 470 yards in his last 5 games.  

Baltimore’s defense held DeShaun Watson to 7 for 18 and 100 yards last week.  The Ravens defense sacked Watson 7 times.  

The Ravens out gained Houston by 259 yards last week.  

 

L.A. only out gained the horrid Bears offense by 16 yards.  They only out gained a pedestrian Pittsburgh offense by 33 yds.  Now both Chicago and Pittsburgh have good defenses, but this is not the Rams offense from last season.  The Rams could only muster 69 more yards than the Bengals in a game where Cincinnati hung with them and nearly posted a backdoor cover, a game I sent out to you that we barely won. 

 

The Rams offense is struggling.  L.A. comes in #25 in turnovers and passing TD.  They were #8 in passing TD last season. Goff has only an 11/10 TD/INT ratio. They no longer run the ball with consistent success, ranking #24 in ypc this season vs #3 in ypc last season.

 

I think Baltimore is too explosive right now and the Rams just are not very good on offense.  Have to take the Ravens until they show some sign of letting up.

College Football Week 13 Free Plays

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

Tennessee vs Missouri -5 O/U 45

Recency bias can be bad when you just look back at the last game.   Recency bias can be good if you see a trend of progression or regression with a larger sample size or even half the season.   Tennessee started out the season poorly losing to teams like BYU and Georgia State, but they won 4 of their last 5 games and kept up with Alabama for awhile.   Missouri went on a nice run of winning some games until they lost to Vanderbilt, and since then, they got shut out by Georgia and only scored 7 points at home vs Florida.  Looking at the numbers, Missouri’s best win was against Ole miss while Tennessee at least beat Kentucky.  Tennessee has had the harder schedule here.   Both of these teams are trying to make a bowl game here so I think this is going down to a FG type game.

Tennessee +5 – 2 star premium shared play

Texas vs Baylor -5 O/U 59

Tom Herman as a dog.   Yes we say this all the time but why the hell not this time?   Baylor had their hearts ripped out of their chests last week blowing that game to Oklahoma.   At the same time they should have lost that game by more and were very fortunate to cover being outgained by 200 yards or so.   Is Texas good this year?  No, not for their standards, but one thing that I do know is that Sam Ehlinger keeps them in games.   Last week they kept it close against Iowa State and only lost by 2.   They only lost by 7 to Oklahoma and 7 to LSU.   Those are two teams that are a good deal better than Baylor.  Now the Longhorns are facing another Texas team as an underdog and that spells major disrespect.   Texas has every reason in the world to get up and beat their little brother.  Baylor doesn’t need to win this game to win the Big 12 because they can beat Kansas next week and get another shot at Oklahoma.   Also, it isn’t a guarantee that if Baylor wins out that they make the CFB playoffs.

Texas +5 – 2 star premium shared

Duke vs Wake Forest -7 O/U 50

Am I looking at this right?  A Wake Forest game only has a total of 50 against a bad defense?   This number factors in a huge over reaction to Wake only scoring 3 points vs Clemson.  Come-on It’s Clemson!   Wake plays the fasted game in College football and Duke isn’t exactly slow.   This number also factors in that Duke hasn’t scored much their last 4 games but they at least played 3 tough defenses and had one stinker vs Syracuse.  Duke can still make a bowl game with a win here and I think they are going to go for it.  Duke give’s up 30 points per game and 5.4 yards per play.  Wake scores 32 points per game and averages 5.7 yards per play.   Before Duke hit that bad streak they scored 41 vs Georgia Tech, 30 vs Pittsburgh, 45 at Virginia tech and 41 vs Middle Tennessee.  I think they can score against Wake Forest’s weak defense.   Lastly, Duke ranks 31 in plays per game so they aren’t exactly a slow paced team either.

Over 50 – 3 star premium shared

Bonus – Penn State 1st half +10.5 and Ohio State 2nd half.  2 stars each

Colts at Texans Wk 12

By
Alan Cashman
-

Follow me on Twitter https://twitter.com/TheCashManWins

Colts at Texans

Pick: Ind +3.5

Going to take the Colts to cover here tonight.  I don’t know if they win straight up but several things going for them it looks and feels like

 

IND 10-1-1 ATS last 12 vs teams with a  winning record

IND 6-0 ATS last 6 vs AFC South

IND 6-0-1 ATS last 7 in Houston

HOU 2-8 ATS against teams with a  winning record

Road team 8-2-2 ATS last 12 meetings

Colts seem to come out flat vs teams they are favored against and should beat and appear to get up for division games and games where they are not favored to win.  Indianapolis is 3-0 vs the AFC South this season including a win over Houston. That win followed the big Sunday night win at KC. The Colts seem to get up for these games.  They also seem to have already hit their 3-4 game lull that good teams often experience at some point in the season.

Jacoby Brissett is 4-0 in his career against Houston.  He has a 7/0 TD/INT and a 107.2 rating. He went 26 for 39, 326 yds 4 TD in the first meeting this season.  

The Colts offensive line manhandled Jacksonville on run plays in Wk 11.  Houston is allowing 5.8 ypc in their last 3 games. They are allowing 5 ypc overall on the season.  Also, the Texans are #29 in pass defense this season. They are #25 in total defense. T.Y. Hilton is now probable to play.  Hilton has over 1,500 receiving yards in 15 career games vs Houston. The Colts are without Marlon Mack but appear to have sufficient options at back in Wilkins (6.1 ypc) and Williams (7.8 ypc).  Baltimore ran for 256 yards, 6.9 ypc last weekvs the Texans.

DeShaun Watson has been sacked 13 times in his last 4 games including 6 times last week.  Watson is 1-2 career vs the Colts. He has 4/3 TD/INT and the Colts have sacked him 15 times in that span.  

Houston is 1-3 ATS against the closing line this season.

College Football Week 13 Betting Spots

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

Let Down Spots

  • Iowa hosting Illinois is a let down spot after beating Minnesota
  • Oklahoma at TCU – Only because it was such an exhilarating comeback.   They were favored anyways
  • Temple at Cincinnati – They were dogs to Tulane
  • West Virginia hosting Oklahoma State – They beat ranked Kansas State
  • Minnesota at Northwestern could be bad for them seeing that they lost their playoff hopes.
  • Baylor at Texas worries me a little after that gut-wrenching loss
  • Kent State hosting Ball State after that crazy comeback vs Buffalo

Get up Spots:

  • Indiana hosting Michigan after a tough Penn State game
  • Boston College at Notre Dame – They are trying to make a bowl game
  • ASU hosting Oregon – Trying to make a bowl game
  • Buffalo hosting Toledo – Trying to make a bowl game
  • Michigan State at Rutgers – if not now then when?  Can they make a bowl?
  • Tulane hosting UCF – This is a spot where they need to preform
  • Arizona hosting Utah – after a pathetic performance vs Oregon
  • Charlotte hosting Marshall – Trying to make a bowl game
  • Fresno State hosting Nevada – Trying to make a bowl game
  • NC State at Georgia Tech – They can still make a bowl game

Look ahead spots:

  • Wisconsin looking past Purdue to Minnesota
  • Minnesota looking past Northwestern to Wisconsin
  • Cincinnati looking past Temple to Memphis
  • Georgia Tech looking past NC State to Georgia
  • Michigan looking past Indiana to Ohio State
  • Notre Dame looking past Boston College to Stanford
  • Virginia looking past Liberty to Virginia Tech
  • Virginia Tech looking past Pittsburgh to Virginia

 

 

 

 

College Football Week 12 Misleading Final Scores

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

Buffalo vs Kent State – Buffalo outgained Kent State by 95 yards yet lost mostly by an onside kick deal.

Northern Illinois vs Toledo – Toledo outgained NIU by 64 yards yet lost by 3 due to a 2-0 turnover ratio.

Wisconsin vs Nebraska – Nebraksa outgained Wisconsin by 11 yards but lost by 16.   Missed a FG but had a poor red zone appearance.

TCU vs Texas Tech – TCU outgained Tech by 148 yards and only won by 2.  They won the turnover battle 0-2 as well.  That don’t happen much..

Indiana vs Penn State – Indiana ougained Penn State by 91 yards yet lost by 7.   2-1 turnover ratio helped that.

Louisiana Monroe vs Georgia Southern – Monroe outgained Southern by 45 yards let lost by 32 due to a a 3-0 turnover ratio.

Troy vs Texas State – Troy only outgained Texas State by 55 yards yet won by 36 points.   A 4-0 turnover ratio helped.

Texas vs Iowa State – Iowa State outgained Texas by 136 yards yet only won by 2 points.   A 1-0 turnover ratio.   Texas needs a bad year to have a great year.   Like Drafting.

West Virginia vs Kansas State – Kansas State outgained West Virginia by 102 yards yet lost by 4 due to a 2-0 turnover ratio.   Maybe time to fade the Mountaineers again?

Georgia vs Auburn – Auburn outgained Georgia by 78 yards yet lost by 7.  A 1-0 turnover ratio helped but at the same time, Georgia was up 21 -0 most of that game playing prevent.

Syracuse vs Duke – Cuse outgained Duke by 116 yards but won by 23 points.   3-0 turnover ratio killed Duke.

Minnesota vs Iowa – Minnesota outgained Iowa 431 to 290 yet lost by 5 points.   141 yards of difference.  1-0 turnover ratio wasn’t enough.   It was the bad efficiency in the Red Zone.   It also killed my over.

Rice vs Middle Tennessee State – MTSU outgained Rice by 81 yards yet lost by 3 points due to a 2-0 turnover ratio.   Congrats Rice on your first win.

Louisiana vs S Alabama – South Alabama outgained Louisiana by 77 yards yet lost by 10.  Only a 1-0 turnover ratio.   They may be a good bet next game.

Air Force vs Colorado State – Colorado State outgained Airforce by 33 yards yet lost by 17.   Even turnover ratio.

Cincinnati vs South Florida – USF outgained Cinci by 150 yards yet lost by 3 with an even turnover ratio.

Louisville vs NC State – NC State outgained Lousiville by 151 yards yet lost by 14.  A 3-0 turnover ratio saw to that.

Oklahoma vs Baylor – Oklahoma outgained Baylor by 218 yards yet only won by 3.   Turnovers were close enough…   This is why i didn’t bet this game.

 

 

 

Podcast 68 – 19 – With Kyle Hunter – College Football Week 13 & NFL Week 12 Plays – Sharp Movement – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

We have a great show for you today!  Kyle Hunter @kylehunterpicks is back break down some amazing games in this week’s card!   First, Kiev talks about a dream scenario with Wisconsin and then talks about Ohio State’s College Game-day reactions.  Next, Kyle comes on to discuss some NCAA Basketball trends and and a nice peek into the Big West conference.  Next, Kyle gives us a sleeper team this year for us to keep an eye on that could make some series noise in Men’s Hoops!  Then, we break down some big games in College football as well as give you some great plays for this weekend!  Shortly after, Kiev gives out a few plays of his own for college football week 13 and NFL week 12.  Finally, we go over the sharp line movement in the #NFL and #NCAA.

NCAA: Penn State vs Ohio state – Oklahoma State vs West Virginia and more!

NFL:  Green Bay vs San Francisco – Tampa Bay vs Atlanta and more!

#AAC #ACC #Big12 #Big10 #CUSA #MAC #MWC #Pac12 #SEC #Sunbelt

#Sportsbetting #Gamblingtwitter #NCAA #NFL

Should you need a sports book please visit www.mybookie.ag and use the promo code, “theoddsbreakers” to get a 100% sign up bonus!  Terms and conditions apply.

www.theoddsbreakers.com

For only 17.99 a month become an ODDSBREAKER’S MEMBER and gain access to all premium picks BEFORE the line moves please visit www.theoddsbreakers.com or for $19.99 per month get all of that while adding access to the podcast early by becoming our Patreon at https://www.patreon.com/join/theoddsbreakers?

Follow us on Twitter @theoddsbreakers @OBKiev #theoddsbreakers

1...603604605...664Page 604 of 664