We have a GREAT show for you today! The one and only Will Hill @NotTheeWillHill from @VSINlive & The Should Have Bet More Podcast is back to break down week 1 of the NFL! First, Kiev talks a little bit about how much variance lies in NFL week one. Next, Will comes on and the guys get right into what they may or may not have learned from preseason football. Then, the guys talk overrated/underrated teams coming into the season. After that, the guys get right into NFL week 1 talking a little bit about every game and some Free Plays. Next, the guys talk some most likely favorites of -5.5 or more to lose outright. Scary survivor! Then, we talk about a beer bet banger to replenish our fridge. Next, Kiev gets into his refuse to lose teaser that went 19-11-1 from 2024! Finally, we get into some Sharp Money movement and recap our plays. Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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Our survivor contest will revive if two or more final remaining entries eliminate during any particular week! This will in turn maximize payouts to our final winner(s)!
Entrants attempt to select the winner for 1 game per week. Entrants that select only winners will advance to the next slate. The entrant that makes it the furthest takes home the whole prize. If all remaining entrants are eliminated in the same slate, they will all be considered winners and will all split the prize.
Check the individual week tabs in your picksheet to view the pick deadline for each week. The deadline appears at the top as “Picks lock” with the date and time.
Sport: Football
Contest Type: Survivor
Multi-Entry: Yes (10)
Slate: View all weeks
Entry Deadline: 9/7 @ 10:00 AM
Pick Deadline: Sun, Sep 7 at 10:00 AM
Rules
Select only winners to advance to the next week
Losses, Ties, and Missed Picks result in elimination from the contest
There are no tiebreakers
If you run out of teams, you will be unable to make a pick for the current slate, and will be unable to advance
If one or more remaining entries is able to make a correct selection for that slate, you will be eliminated
If all other remaining entries are unable to make a correct selection for that slate, the contest will revive and the remaining entrants will go on to the next week!
If all remaining entries run out of teams, the contest will conclude at the end of the slate and the remaining entrants will split the prize
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Kiev O’Neil’s Sports Betting Stats and Records!
54% Lifetime College &NFL Football ATS/Props/Totals
51% 2024 College Football & NFL -46U (Bad season)
56% 139-109-5 up 22 units in the 2023 NFL Season!
2024 MLB Season 111-93-11 up 8.3U
2023 MLB Season 146-123-7 up 11U
2023/2024 College Basketball up 9U
63% for 2022/2023 NBA sides and totals! 22-13 up 6.5 units. 14% ROI
55% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 5.21% ROI
56% 2022/2023 NFL Season 136-109-11 in Sides/Totals/Teasers/Season props up 38.5U
55% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 4.75% ROI
63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!
54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball 3% ROI
38% Lifetime UFC On All Plays 3% ROI
62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!
We have a FUN show for you today! Brian Edwards @VegasBEdwards from @VegasInsider and @MajorWagerUno is back to break down a big week of college football! First, Kiev talks about his power ratings and some big adjustments that he had to make. Next, Brian comes on and the guys get right into some self reflection. Where were we right? Where were we wrong? Then, Brian and Kiev talk about overreaction Monday. Which teams are properly put in their places and which teams were not? After that, the boys get into their six pack of plays with plenty of Free Picks and more! Then, the guys talk some random games for the weekend with some possible plays and leans. After that, we get into some Sharp Money movement. Finally, Kiev recaps our plays. Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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Use Promo Code Football25 TO GET $100 OFF EVERY FOOTBALL OR YEARLY PACKAGE or 50% OFF THE FIRST MONTH OF ANY MONTHLY PACKAGE for the rest of the 2025 season! Click here: https://theoddsbreakers.com/premium-plays/Offer expires December 31st 2025
Sick of headaches in the morning after drinking? Get 20% off of our gummies that help get rid of those pesky hangovers right here! https://liqure.com/discount/ODDS
If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves! Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev at only $84 per month on a 1 year subscription!
You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help us out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits like free merch and plays!
Happy NFL regular season to all those who celebrate. After all the build up since the draft in April we’ve finally reached the season opener. In the past I’ve had time to break down every division in depth and give you predictions, but this year I’ve just got time to get you my season win totals for each team. We’ve done well in these articles and hopefully can get you some winners again. I’ll show each division with Over/Under Season win total odds and then give you my Win/Loss Predictions and bets. Without further ado here is my NFL full season predictions
AFC East
Buffalo 11.5 Over -155/Under +125.
Miami 8.5 Over +175/Under -205
New England 7.5 Over -145/ Under +115
New York Jets 5.5 Over -165/Under +135
Buffalo 14-3/Miami 8-9/New England 6-11/New York Jets 5-12
The AFC East gets cross conference games against the NFC South which makes it a little easier on all these teams. I think these are the two weakest divisions in football after the teams at the top with the AFC South coming in next.
AFC East Bets – Buffalo Over 11.5 Wins 1 Unit. New England Under 7.5 Wins 1 Unit.
AFC West
Kansas City 11.5 Over +110/Under -140
Denver 9.5 Over -125/Under -105
Los Angeles Chargers 9.5 Over -115/Under -115
Las Vegas 7.5 Over +125/ Under -145
Kansas City 11-6/Denver 9-8/Los Angeles Chargers 9-8/Las Vegas 8-9
I expect this to be a very tough division, and it’s possible this could be the year someone knocks the Chiefs off the pedestal. Everything here lands right on the number for me.
My numbers say I should be on Baltimore and Cincinnati here. The Bengals defense can’t be awful early in the year again can it? I’ll probably regret it, but I’m in.
AFC North Bets – Baltimore Over 11.5 Wins 1 Unit. Cincinnati Over 9.5 Wins 1 Unit.
The Indy defense could keep them in some games, but do you trust Daniel Jones with that offense especially when Taylor gets hurt? Plus if they don’t get a win at home against Miami or Denver and find a way to lose at Tennessee this team could mail it in early.
AFC South Bets – Indianapolis Under 7.5 Wins 1 Unit
NFC East
Philadelphia 11.5 Over 11.5/Under 11.5
Washington 9.5 Over -110/Under -120
Dallas 7.5 Over +105/Under -135
New York Giants 5.5 Over -125/Under +105
Philadelphia 11-6/Washington 10-7/Dallas 9-8/ New York Giants 7-10
The Parsons trade dropped the Cowboys some on the board, I bet them early and I am hitting them again late here. I am also higher on the Giants than most people are, but it’s possible with how Dart has looked if they start out poorly against a brutal opening schedule things could go sideways. I think the front seven on defense could be real good for New York however and am sticking with my guns here that they will be improved. If you don’t like that maybe bet the over later on if they start poorly.
NFC East Bets – Dallas Over 7.5 Wins 1 Unit. New York Giants Over 5.5 Wins 1 Unit.
NFC West
San Francisco 10.5 Over -125/Under -115
Los Angeles Rams 9.5 Over -135/Under +105
Arizona 8.5 Over -140/ Under +110
Seattle 8.5 Over +105/Under -135
San Francisco 11-6/ Arizona 10-7/ Los Angeles Rams 10-7/Seattle 8-9
My numbers say play Arizona, but I don’t trust Murray to stay healthy so I am staying away in what be a very good division.
NFC West Bets – Nothing.
NFC North
Detroit 10.5 Over +105/Under -135
Green Bay 9.5 Over -165/Under +135
Chicago 8.5 Over +105/ Under -135
Minnesota 8.5 Over -155/ Under +125
Detroit 11-6/Green Bay 11-6/Chicago 5-12/ Minnesota 4-13
The Parsons trade moved the Green Bay number to the point where it may not be worth betting, but I am still on it. I am not high on Chicago taking a step forward or Minnesota and JJ squared to find success in his first full season. Lots of action here.
NFC North Bets – Green Bay Over 9.5 1 Unit. Chicago Under 8.5 1 Unit. Minnesota Under 8.5 1.5 Units.
NFC South
Tampa Bay 9.5 Over -115/Under -115
Atlanta 7.5 Over -175/Under +145
Carolina 6.5 Over -125/Under -105
New Orleans 5.5 Over -125/Under -105
Tampa Bay 12-5/Carolina 6-11/Atlanta 5-12/New Orleans 4-13
Somehow everyone loves Atlanta to be a sleeper here and I just don’t see it. Penix has solid talent around him, but only threw three TDs in three starts to close the year. He has the arm to make the throws, but I don’t trust the reads watching him thus far. Plus the schedule is brutal for them to start the season. Could be a good over hedge after week 8. New Orleans needs Arch Manning right? I can’t see them playing to win at any point this season.
NFC South Bets – Tampa over 9.5 2 Units. Atlanta Under 7.5 1 Unit. New Orleans Under 5.5 1.5 Units
Conferences and Super Bowl Bets
I don’t see a lot of value plays on the board this year. Teams like the Bengals and Chargers around +2000 might be worth a shot. I’m putting a small ticket in on the Bills +600, but that’s it. Yes, they are the favorite, but I think this is the year. Getting out of the AFC playoffs will be brutal though for everyone.
Other Bets – Sprinkling a little bit on these. Don’t go crazy, but I like the numbers here.
Las Vegas Raiders to win AFC West +1600. They’ve got the easiest schedule and crazier things have happened when a bunch of teams are beating up on each other.
Defensive player of the year – Maxx Crosby +1600. To go along with the above bet why not take a look at him. Hutchinson is only at +625 and their comeback player of the year odds are Crosby +2200 and Hutchinson +250. You could bet both small.
NFL Coach of the Year -Todd Bowles +6000. – I mentioned this one on the Vegas Podcast. Why does the NFL hate him? What happens if the big dogs in the NFC beat up on each other and goes 12-5 and get the top seed in the NFC?
That’s it folks. Quick and to the point? Want any other thoughts or info hit me up on X @TheGreatKnoche. Good Luck to everyone with their bets this football season!
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - APRIL 06: Aaron Judge #99 of the New York Yankees reacts after hitting a three-run home run during the eighth inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Yankee Stadium on April 06, 2021 in the Bronx borough of New York City. The Yankees won 7-2. (Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images)
Premium Selections over at http://oddsbreakers.com
Boise State out-gained USF 378 to 372 yet lost 34-7. A 3-0 turnover ratio and horrible 4th downs killed them.
Ohio out-gained Rutgers 440 to 399 and lost 34-31. Equal turnovers and bad 4th down defense got the Bobcats. However they still get big upgrades in my power ratings.
Minnesota out-gained Buffalo 443 to 151 yet only won 23-10. Equal turnovers but PJ Fleck just wanted to run the game out. Upgrade for the Gophers
Georgia Tech out-gained Colorado 463 to 305 yet only won 27-20. A 3-0 turnover ratio gave the bees a rough start.
Maryland only outgained FAU 380 to 354 yet won 39-7. A massive 6-0 turnover ratio destroyed the Owles.
Texas’s yard were many when Ohio State was in prevent. They however almost got back in the game.
Toledo out-gained Kentucky 329 to 305 yet lost 24-16. They won the turnover battle 2-1 but 11 penalties and poor fourth down conversions got the Rockets.
Texas A&M only outgained UTSA 399 to 373 yet won 42-21. Equal turnovers at 0, but poor red zone offense and special teams got the Roadrunners.
Virginia Tech out-gained South Carolina 336 to 328 yet lost 24-11. A 2-0 turnover ratio and poor red zone offense got the Hokies.
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