We have a great show for you today! Will Hill @NotTheeWillHill from @VSINLive, @BearBets and The Should have bet more podcast is back to break down some sports! First, Kiev mentions that it is contest season and talks a little Circa Sports! He gets into his NFC East & West previews with some Free Plays! Next, Will comes on and the guys get right into baseball! Who are the biggest surprise teams? Which teams are real and which teams are a little overrated? Next, the boys get into some NFL! We go division by division with some early thoughts and a few plays! After that, Kiev and Will talk some exotic markets including MVP and coach of the year! Finally, Will and Kiev give out their way too early super bowl champions! Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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NFC South: The NFC South has once again proven incompetent as ever. Last season, this division had three pretty bad organizations with one that was above average. The Tampa Bay Bucs were the only team that looked like they had a pulse when they hit the playoffs. The Atlanta falcons were all hype and no substance with a 40 million dollar a year quarterback that won’t be their starter for 2025, while the Carolina panthers and the New Orleans saints became, must not watch TV. This season, the NFC South has it a bit easier than last season facing the NFC West as well as the AFC East. This isn’t exactly easy by any means, but still much better than what they had to deal with last year. The good news for this division is that they get to play each other twice.
Schedule: Medium Easy – At large games @ Houston, vs Philadelphia, @Detroit
Schedule Last Year: Medium
Key losses: C Robert Hainsey, S Jordan Whitehead
Key additions: OLB Hassan Reddick, P Riley Dixon, RT Charlie Heck, ILB Anthony Walker Jr
Key draft picks: WR Emeka Egbuka, CB Benjamin Morrison, CB Jacob Parrish, and a bunch of dudes.
Summary: If anyone over the past two seasons underestimated the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, then they most likely paid for it. This Bucs team continues to be very solid, but I also think that they are getting a little bit older. Mike Evans continues to be the go-to receiver there while Chris Godwin can’t seem to stay healthy. The question is how much longer can these guys be productive? I do like some of the things that this team did in free agency and the draft. The Bucs focused on defense where they found some dudes that can step it up. In saying that, I do not think that this team did enough to beat the top teams in the NFC. If injuries, unlike last year go their way, the Bucs may have an opportunity for the 1 seed in the playoffs. That’s right. A 1 seed! That should be the goal for these guys with a very favorable schedule. Tampa Bay finished the season ranking 5th in offensive EPA and 17th on defense. This is why this team focused their offseason on that side of the ball. This defense ranked 27th in opponent pass EPA, making that the reason that the organization went cornerbacks in this draft. I like the moves. This Bucs team didn’t have good injury luck yet with all of the injuries that they have sustained on offense & defense, yet still won 10 games. A big question mark for me is how the Bucs will do without starting center Robert Hainsey. Graham Barton was a high draft pick who steps on in. I think that the Buccaneers should win quite a few games this season.
My number is: 10.65 wins
Action: Over 9.5 wins – .5 stars (FD)
Tampa Bay’s Power Rating: 2.75
2. Atlanta Falcons –
Vegas Win total: 7.5 juiced to the over -140
2024 Wins: 8
Pythagorean Wins: 7.61
Schedule: Easy – At large games @ Minnesota, vs Washington, vs Indianapolis (neutral in Berlin Germany)
Schedule Last Year: Easy
Key losses: DT Grady Jarrett, DT Eddie Goldman, OLB Lorenzo Carter, C Drew Dalman, WR Rondale Moore, OLB Matt Judon, S Justin Simmons
Key additions: LB Divine Deablo, Edge Leonard Floyd, DE Morgan Fox, CB Michael Ford, QB Easton Stick
Key draft picks: Edge Jalon Walker, Edge James Pearce, S Xavier Watts, S Billy Bowman, T Jack Nelson
Summary: Last year, I was pretty upset with the Falcons for signing Kurt Cousins and Drafting Michael Penix. Strange how it worked out for them, yet still quite costly. Now, we get to watch this team pay a backup north of 140 millions dollars. Michael Penix Jr hasn’t played in a lot of games, but for what he accomplished, he looks the part of a starting quarterback in the national football league. I thought that this team certainly lost some big men in the trenches, but I also think that they did wonderful in free agency and in the Draft. The diry-birds drafted two beast edge rushers from the SEC as well as, maybe, the best safety in in the draft in Xavier Watts. My biggest problem with the Falcons is the coaching. Raheem Morris has been less than adequate as he always seems to make the wrong decision in the critical moments of each game. This year, Atlanta does benefit from a schedule that removes an away game and puts it in Berlin Germany for a neutral venue vs the Colts. I expect the Falcons to have a solid run game utilizing Bijan Robinson better now that Michael Penix Jr. should be able to open up the passing game. Their biggest hole will be the defense against the run. Losing defensive tackles Grady Jarrett, Eddie Goldman, and Lorenzo Carter at linebacker, could be rough when going against some of the better running backs in this division like Bucky Irving, and Alvin Kamara. In saying that, the Falcons upside is high. They could be be very good, and steal this division from Tampa Bay, I just can’t trust this coach enough to bet it.
My Number: 8.81
Atlanta’s Power Rating: .5
Action: Lean win division, lean over 7.5 wins and lean make the playoffs
3. Carolina Panthers –
Vegas Win Total: 6.5 juiced to the over -125
2024 Wins: 5
Pythagorean Wins: 4.08
Schedule: Medium Easy – At large games @ Jacksonville, vs Dallas, @ Green Bay
Schedule Last Year: Easy
Key losses: S Xavier Woods, CB Linnie Johnson, DE Jadeveon Clowney, OLB Shaq Thompson
Key additions: S Trevon Moehrig, DT Tershawn Wharton, DT Bobby Brown, OLB Patrick Jones
Key draft picks: WR Tetairoa McMillan, Edge Nic Scourton, Edge Princley Umanmielen, RB Trevor Etienne, S Lathan Ransom, WR Jimmy Horn and some dudes
Summary: last season, I found it somewhat amusing watching the Carolina Panthers win two of their last three games to sneak into third place in the division, and to crush any of those under 4.5 season win totals that were so popular before the 2024 NFL season began. My apologies if that was one of you readers. This team took the division rival Atlanta Falcons straight out of the playoffs during the final game, and I think that this was quite rewarding to this organization. In saying that, the Panthers Pythagorean wins were the league lowest at 4.08 and this team was worse on paper than their lowly five wins had shown. One thing that I do believe is that quarterback Bryce Young still may have some life in him. He knows that everyone looks at him as a bust, but I have noticed that he works hard and I think that he may be able to turn it around. The pressure is off and he is now playing with house money. I like how this team signed some defensive help in the trenches as well as drafting some pass rush. My big concern remains on the offensive line, that last season, was quite below average. My secondary concerns basically are IN the secondary as well as the back end of the defense. The linebackers are basically unproven, and the passing defense ranked dead last in drop-back-EPA and success rate. The Panthers have a lot of growing to do, but they at least have a schedule that isn’t too daunting.
My Number: 5.54
Carolina Power Rating: -5.5
Action: Lean under
4. New Orleans Saints –
Vegas Win Total: 6.5 Juiced Towards the under -180
2024 Wins: 5
Pythagorean Wins: 6.82
Schedule: Easy – At large games vs NY Giants, @ Chicago, @ Tennessee
Schedule Last Year: Easy
Key Losses: Coach Dennis Allen, QB Derek Carr, CB Paulson Adebo, WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling, S Will Harris, DE Payton Turner, ILB Willie Gay, RB Jamaal Williams
Key additions: Coach Kellen Moore, S Justin Reid, WR Brandon Cooks, CB Isaac Yadom, T Dillon Radunz
Summary: The Saints make me think of the song “won’t get fooled again”. After this team blew away the Cowboys inking a 2-0 start, they managed to lose six games in a row. It got worse as the season progressed with losses to the Panthers, The Raiders, and the Falcons. This team is in total rebuild mode as two of their impact players in offensive Tackle Ryan Ramcyzk and quarterback Derek Carr retired. So what do they do? They reach for a low rated quarterback in Tyler Shough in the second round. Say what you want about Shedeur Sanders, but I do know that he is certainly a better prospect then Shough. The biggest change was obviously the hiring of Kellen Moore, who proved to be a pretty good offensive coordinator with the Cowboys and the Eagles. The big question is, how will Kellen be as a head coach with low talent? I mean, it can’t be good. The Saints get a fourth place schedule which is listed as the third easiest in football, but when you diver deeper, you notice that the Saints have the second worst net rest advantage at -14 days getting three times coming off of bye weeks. OUCH. Two good things I will say about the Saints is that they had a large Pythagorean win total last year of 6.82. This means they were a lot better than their five wins. I will also say that they had the second worst injury luck behind the Lions, but the fact that they have no decent quarterback in a rebuilding year is very glaring. Kellen Moore will be on his honeymoon in his first head coaching year, and this team won’t win seven games. Heck they may not win five.
The Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds are set to face off in an NL Central showdown. The Cubs, currently 31-20, lead the division, while the Reds sit at 25-27, third in the standings.
Key Matchup Details:
Pitching Duel: Andrew Abbott will start for the Reds, boasting a 1.80 ERA this season, while Colin Rea takes the mound for the Cubs, holding a 3-0 record.
Cubs’ Strengths: Chicago has won 67.7% of games when favored this season and has a 7-2 record in their last nine matchups as favorites.
Reds’ Home Advantage: The Reds ranks third in the NL in team ERA (3.49).
Hot Players: Pete Crow-Armstrong is on a historic 34-game stretch, hitting .331/.348/.750 with a 1.098 OPS. Seiya Suzuki has been productive, with 12 home runs and 43 RBIs.
Weather:
A beautiful 72 degrees with light wind blowing out to center at 3MPH.
Prediction:
This handicap is quite simple. The Cubs are the best hitting team in baseball averaging six runs per game. The Reds are 11th at 4.5. How do you not look at the best overs team in baseball and not hit anything under 10 today? Neither pitcher is all that good when looking at the advanced metrics. Abbott has had a good start, but his 3.1 FIP and 3.97XFIP tell the real story. Last season his xFIP was 4.91. Colin Rea is taking charge for the Cubbies with a 2.38ERA but a 4.07 xFIP. Neither bullpen is good as these teams rely on runs. The Cubs are the number 1 team in baseball to the over at 30-17-4. Take the over 9.
Baseball season continues chugging along. I didn’t have the greatest start in MLB, losing 7 of 8 to start the year didn’t help, but we’re plodding with promise. April we were down just over 11 Units, and we’ve gotten it all back in May plus a little. For the season we currently sit at 36-38 +1.6 Units. Most of my plays in MLB are 1 or 1.5 units, with some very rare 2 Unit plays.
My Analysis today turns to Target Field in Minneapolis, MN where the Minnesota Twins (27-22) will host the Kansas City Royals (28-23) at 8:10 ET. The current line sits with the Twins as heavy favorites at -183 (Royals +168) with an Over/Under of 7.5 juiced to the over at -125. Game time temperature will be 62 degrees under partly cloudy skies with the wind blowing in slightly from left at roughly 5mph.
The Twins have been on an absolute tear since the calendar turned to May going 14-4 this month including a 13 game win streak. They’ve done it mostly with great pitching allowing just three runs per game over that stretch.
Tonight they start Pablo Lopez who has been great so far this season. He boasts a 2.40 ERA with a 3.08 xFIP. He’s striking our 9.8 batters per nine innings while only allowing 1.80 BB. His BABIP against is only .261 so that is due for some regression as is his HR/9 which sits at .60 and is well below his major league average of 1.08. He faced the Royals early in the season allowing one unearned run in 4.2 IP with 3 hits, 6 Ks, and 1 BB.
The Royals have also been getting it done with pitching and defense. Also allowing just three runs per game since the calendar turned to May. They are tied in the AL central for second place with the Guardians and Twins five games back of the division leading Tigers.
They’ll trot out rookie Noah Cameron for his third career start. He has looked good in his first two outings only allowing one earned run so far in 12.1 IP. His xFIP is high sitting at 5.08, but he also has not struck out many batters in his two starts and it is a very small sample size. In the minors last year across two levels he struck out 10.4 batters per nine innings while only allowing 2.5 BBs on average. Right now he is rolling with five pitches in the repertoire all of them with plus values in his limited MLB time. He is certainly due for some regression and a not so warm welcome at some point coming up. I’m betting it won’t be tonight against the Twins.
So what’s my angle? Well both teams here are struggling on offense. The Twins are 21st in runs scored and OPS, while the Royals are 26th and 25th respectively. The difference I am going to hone in on tonight and why I think there is an edge is how the Twins have struggled versus left handed pitching. While they’ve been better or late, they hold only a .650 OPS against southpaws and are striking out 28.1% of their ABs. The Twins are also still without Byron Buxton who is still dealing with concussion effects. He is one of their best hitters vs lefties with a .393 OPS.
Should the Twins be favored? Absolutely. Should they be -180 with a line as low as 7.5 against a very similar teams profile with a lefty on the bump? Nope. I have this one with the Royals at +140 so I’ll take the extra $.28 and try and cash a decent size dog tonight.
NFC NORTH: As expected, the NFC North proved to be the strongest division in football producing three out of four playoff contenders. Clear, the big surprise was the Minnesota Vikings fighting for the top spot in the NFC with the Lions. The smaller surprise for some was the Chicago Bears once again achieving the status of poorly run organization. Unfortunately, rather than taking a step up on an easy schedule, the Bears choked most of their games away due to little to no leadership. The Packers were solid, but not good enough to pass the eye test, while the Lions hit the injury bug so bad that it finally caught up to them in the playoffs. For 2025, the football gods did this tough division no favors as they have to play the NFC East with the Eagles, Commanders and Cowboys lurking, as well as the AFC North which has two of the four best quarterbacks in the nation. Not to mention, these NFC North teams all have to play each other twice. The squad that prevails out of this division will certainly be battle tested. The most underrated aspect of the NFC North is that it has some great coaching. I doubt we get three playoff teams again this year, but I could certainly see two. Let’s dig in.
Schedule: Hard– At large games vs @Kansas City, vs Tampa Bay, @LA Rams
Schedule last year: Hard
Key Losses: OC Ben Johnson, DC Terry Glenn, CB Carlton Davis, C Frank Ragnow, G Kevin Zeitler, CB Ifeatu Melifonwu, Edge Za’Darius Smith
Key additions: CB DJ Reed, DT Levi Onwuzurike, DT Roy Lopez
Who they drafted: DL Tyleik Williams, G Tate Ratledge, WR Isaac TeSlaa, G Miles Frazier
Summary: The Lions were statistically the best team in the league with statistically the worst injury luck that at team could have. Defensive coordinator Terry Glenn had to pick up guys off of the scrap heap just to have a defensive line. Even with that said, these Lions were once again Ferocious winning 15 games with the highest Pythagorean wins of 13.35. The problem that we are now asking, is if the Lions have missed their super bowl window. Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson stayed as long as he possibly could with this team before taking over the Chicago Bears. The Lions turn to John Morton to come back from Denver to take over as the new OC. The same questions on the other side of the ball can be said for defense as Terry Glenn shot off to the Jets. The Lions looked internal to fill this open position in promoting Kelvin Sheppard. As good as the Lions were last year, I have to assume Dan Campbell isn’t a huge Xs and Os coach, and this team will be relying on their new coordinators for success. Still, this Lions team is loaded and they get guys back like Edge Aiden Hutchinson and three technique Alim McNeil back from injuries. Their win total is low from what they accomplished over the last two years due to having the third hardest schedule in the league. Although, that hard schedule didn’t matter last year did it? The good news for the Lions is that they have the largest net-rest advantage of all teams. Detroit does not get a team coming off a bye week. They net themselves +13 days of rest. If everything works out, the Lions could be the top team in the NFC.
My Season Number: 12.18
Action:Over 10.5 wins +100 – .5 stars (FD) & to win the NFC North +140- .5 stars (FD) (edit) With Frank Ragnow retiring, I am more neutral on these plays)
Detroit Lions Power Rating: 6
2. Minnesota Vikings
Vegas Win total: 8.5 juiced to the over -145
2024 Wins: 14
Pythagorean Wins: 11.8
Schedule: Hard – At large games vs Atlanta, @LA Chargers, @Seattle
Schedule Last year: Hard
Key Losses: QB Sam Darnold, S Camryn Bynum, T Cam Robinson, OLB Patrick Jones, C Garrett Bradbury, CB Stephon Gilmore, CB Shaq Griffen, G Dalton Risner
Key Additions: G Will Fries, DT Jonathan Allen, DT Javon Hargrave, C Ryan Kelly, CB Isaiah Rogers, LB Eric Wilson
Who they drafted: G Donovan Jackson, WR Tai Felton, Edge Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins
Summary: Last season, the Vikings basically blew everyone’s expectations away by a large margin. Sam Darnold’s performance basically came out of nowhere with some of the best quarterback play in the game during most of the regular season. It sure doesn’t hurt to have Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison to throw that ball to. In saying that, let’s be honest, Most of the Vikings success was all due to great coaching from Kevin O’Connell. Now the question is, can their first round draft pick in JJ McCarthy put up the same production for 2025/2026 with the Vikings high powered offense. I actually think that he can. JJ was a winner in Michigan and he should bring back that attitude with a lot to prove. Letting Sam Darnold walk was the correct move. In saying that, this Vikings team lost probably a bit more then they got back in free agency and the draft. I think that the secondary takes a hit with the losses of Stephon Gilmore and Shaq Griffen. Looking at the draft, I do not understand reaching for a wide receiver in the second round when there are other holes to fill. In saying all this, I think that once again, this Vikings team could compete with the Lions for the division. Their defense ranked 2nd in EPA, and I do not see Brian Flores going anywhere. The Vikings schedule is hard, but that depends more on what your feelings are for their at large games and the back to back games in the UK against two teams with quarterback issues in the Steelers and Browns. The win total seems pretty low for this team at 8.5, but I could see a scenario where the luck runs out for the Vikings. I lean over, and will grab the Vikings to win the division to join my lions play as more of a combination play against the Bears and the Packers.
My season number: 10.09
Action– Strong lean over 8.5 and to win division at +400 – .5 stars (DK)
Vikings Power Rating: 3
3. Green Bay Packers –
Vegas Win Total – 9.5 juiced to the over -120
2024 Wins: 11
Pythagorean Wins: 11.63.
Schedule: Medium Hard – At large games @ Arizona, vs Carolina, @ Denver
Schedule Last year:Hard
Key Losses: DT Tedarrell Slaton, CB Eric Stokes, ILB Eric Wilson, C Josh Myers
Key Additions: G Aaron Banks, CB Nate Hobbs
Who they drafted: WR Matthew Golden, T Anthony Belton, WR Savion Williams
Summary: If the Packers have one thing, it is great coaching. Green Bay continues to over achieve from my personal perspective and the market forecasts, yet their Pythagorean win total states that they even underachieved some at 11 wins. My biggest problem with the Packers is that I do not believe that their Quarterback Jordan Love is all that good. I feel that they achieve wins by beating up on all of the bad to average teams, while continuing to lose all of their important games against the very good to great teams. Lots of sharp folks like the Packers to take a step forward this year and win the division. I am just not there yet as I am confused with what they did in free agency. The Packers needed help in the secondary, as well as the pass rush. Instead Brian Gutenkunst went and drafted wide receivers, partly to appease the draft attendance crowd in Green Bay, and also to give Jordan love more outs. What they really needed was defense. The Packers only ranked 16th in pressure rate with a very low blitz percentage of 17.3%. If you look at the Packers schedule, some think that getting the third place schedule is beneficial. That also depends on your thoughts of playing at large games at Arizona and at Denver. I won’t go under their win total, but I do feel the number is correct as Matt Lefleur can possibly just coach this team to 10 wins.
My season number: 9.82 wins
Action: No play
Green Bay’s power rating: – 3
4. Chicago Bears –
Vegas Win Total 8.5
2024 Wins: 5
Pythagorean Wins: 6.72
Schedule: Medium Hard – At large games @ Las Vegas, vs New Orleans, @ San Francisco
Schedule Last year: Medium Hard
Key Losses: Coach Matt Eberflus, C/G Coleman Shelton, OLB Darrell Taylor, G Teven Jenkins, OLB Jake Martin, T Larry Borom, WR Keenan Allen, DE DeMarcus Walker
Key Additions: Coach Ben Johnson, DC Dennis Allen, DE Dayo Odeyingbo, DT Grady Jarrett, C Drew Dalman, QB Case Keenum, G Joe Thuney, G Jonah Jackson
Who they drafted: TE Colston Loveland, WR Luther Burden III, T Ozzy Tapilo, DL Shemar Turner and a bunch of dudes.
Summary: If you thought the Bears had big changes last year, how about a new coaching regime for 2025? This Bears team were huge under-achievers last year as they had no leadership or a coach that knows much about football or even team chemistry. I am not going to hold back in saying that I really like the Ben Johnson hire, and if it wasn’t for the Bears not making a run at Jim Harbaugh, I might say it was the best coaching hire from all teams over the past three years. Now for the bad. I have to be honest, and say that the jury is still out on Caleb Williams. His confidence was shattered last year taking the most sacks in franchise history. Caleb did not look accurate, but he at least didn’t turn the ball over as much as one might have thought. The good news is that the Bears did a lot to improve their team. Signing DT Grady Jarrett and Edge rusher Dayo Odeyingbo was solid. I like the Bears draft some, but I actually love the money spent on the offensive line even more. I expect Chicago to run multiple two tight end sets with Ben Johnson’s offense as well as possibly putting their top draft pick TE Colston Loveland at times in the slot. This Bears team will be as good as Ben Johnson can make them. His first task is designing plays where Caleb doesn’t have to be superman in the first half. If Ben can scheme some guys open on quick throws and roll outs, Caleb Williams could certainly look pretty good and get his confidence back on track. I suspect the Bears to struggle out of the gate and get better as the season goes on.
The Philadelphia Phillies are looking to extend their six-game winning streak as they face the struggling Colorado Rockies today. The Rockies have had a tough season, sitting at 8-41 overall and 5-19 at home.
Key Players to Watch:
Phillies: Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, and Bryce Harper have been strong contributors, with Schwarber leading the team in home runs.
Rockies: Hunter Goodman has been a bright spot, leading the team in batting average and RBIs.
Pitching Matchup:
Phillies: Ranger Suárez is expected to start. He has settled in after a rough first outing and has won his last two starts.
Rockies: German Márquez will take the mound, but he has struggled this season with an 8.78 ERA.
Weather: Wind blowing in at 7 MPH with a temperature of 71 degrees
Prediction:
Look, I am not one to think that the Rockies are going to win many games this season. I even thing that they may not even get to 40, but this team is about to get swept and they have to try and rally. As bad as German Marquez has been as a pitcher, his FIP numbers are at least under 5. Ranger Suarez for the Phillies is having a great year, but he isn’t exactly Cy Young material at a 5.09 ERA. The Phillies bullpen is in the middle of the pack. I think there is value on the Rockies at +1.5 runs. This team rallied hard against the Diamondbacks not even a week ago to grab a win. They can put up some runs if need be. Colorado can literally lose this game and you can still win plus money at +165.
We have a great show for you today! The NFL is back and Kiev O’Neil goes solo to break down the first two division of topic in the NFC North & The NFC South! We discuss key losses and gains in free agency, the NFL draft, early power ratings, and expected win totals. We also discuss expected wins, strength of schedule and futures. We give out a few best bets. Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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As the PGA TOUR heads to Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas, all eyes turn to a mix of superstars and rising names. Let’s dive into the biggest pre-tournament headlines.
Pre-Tournament Storylines:
Scottie Scheffler: Chasing a Texas Treble
There’s no slowing down Scottie Scheffler.
Just days after capturing his third career major at the PGA Championship, the World No. 1 is back in action at the Charles Schwab Challenge, aiming for his third straight PGA TOUR victory and second win in Texas this season.
Scheffler has already claimed THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson earlier this month and now returns to a venue where he’s consistently been in contention. In his last three starts at Colonial Country Club, Scheffler has finished T2, T3, and runner-up, the latter coming in a playoff loss to close friend Sam Burns in 2022.
With seven top 10 finishes in just 10 starts this season, including two wins and a major, Scheffler continues to set the gold standard on TOUR.
Davis Riley: History on the Line
It’s been over 70 years since someone successfully defended their title at Colonial—Ben Hogan was the last to do it in the 1950s. Now, Davis Riley is looking to rewrite history.
Riley dominated this event last year with a wire-to-wire, five-shot victory, and his game appears to be heating up at the right time. He had a strong showing at last week’s PGA Championship, finishing T2, five shots behind Scheffler.
Charles Schwab Challenge Champions’ Choice
Colonial Country Club’s beloved tradition, the Champions’ Choice, returns this week at the Charles Schwab Challenge. Each year, past champions of the tournament select two promising young players to receive special invitations into the field—an opportunity typically reserved for those with PGA TOUR status. This year, defending champion Davis Riley made the selections, choosing Neal Shipley and Blades Brown to receive the honorary exemptions.
Shipley has enjoyed a breakout season on the Korn Ferry Tour, highlighted by a victory at the LECOM Suncoast Classic and a current standing of No. 5 on the Points List. In limited PGA TOUR appearances, he’s made a strong impression, notching a top-10 finish at the 2024 ISCO Championship (T6). Perhaps most notably, Shipley earned low amateur honors at both the 2024 Masters and U.S. Open—becoming the first player to do so in the same year since Viktor Hovland in 2019.
Blades Brown, who turns 18 on Wednesday of tournament week, is already establishing himself as one of the most exciting teenage prospects in golf. He recently finished T37 at the ONEFlight Myrtle Beach Classic and T2 at the Veritex Bank Championship on the Korn Ferry Tour. Rather than accept a sponsor exemption to THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson, Brown opted to gain experience by playing on the Korn Ferry Tour, showcasing a mature commitment to development.
Colonial Country Club, established in 1936, has a rich history in golf. It has hosted significant tournaments such as the U.S. Open in 1941, the U.S. Women’s Open in 1991, and the second edition of THE PLAYERS Championship in 1975. The club is closely associated with legendary golfer Ben Hogan, a Fort Worth resident who won the Colonial tournament five times, the most of any player, and considered it his home course.
The Colonial tournament, now known as the Charles Schwab Challenge, was founded in 1946, making it the longest-running non-major on the PGA Tour to be contested at the same course. The Charles Schwab Corporation has been the event’s title sponsor since 2019, with their current deal set to expire after this year’s event. Previous sponsors include Dean & Deluca (2016–2017), Crowne Plaza (2007–2015), Bank of America (2003–2006), MasterCard (1996–2002), and Southwestern Bell (1989–1994). The tournament had no title sponsor in 1995 and 2018.
Winners of the Charles Schwab Challenge receive a tartan plaid jacket, a tradition that started in 1952 to honor the club’s Scottish heritage. Another enduring tradition is the Wall of Champions on the first tee, which features the names and scores of each champion since 1946, along with winners of the 1975 Tournament Players Championship, 1941 U.S. Open, and 1991 U.S. Women’s Open.
The Charles Schwab Challenge is one of five PGA Tour tournaments granted “invitational” status, reducing the field to 120-132 players and offering a larger purse. The tournament also includes a unique tradition called the Champion’s Choice, where former champions select two deserving young players, otherwise ineligible, to compete. This year, Max Greyserman and Parker Coody are the Champion’s Choices. Parker’s brother, Pierceson Coody, was a Champion’s Choice last year and earned a sponsor invite for this year’s event. Five Champion’s Choices have gone on to win the Colonial, with Dave Stockton being the only one to do so in the year he was selected (1967).
Following the 2023 tournament, Colonial Country Club underwent a comprehensive $20 million renovation, overseen by Gil Hanse. Originally scheduled for 2022, the project was delayed due to supply chain issues and began after the 2023 event. Hanse, who previously renovated Perry Maxwell’s Southern Hills and the Los Angeles Country Club for the 2022 U.S. Open, updated every aspect of the course infrastructure, including new irrigation systems, bunkers, tees, turf, and green complexes.
Previous Tournament Venues:
Duration
Course
Location:
1946-1948; 1950-Present
Colonial Country Club
Fort Worth, Texas, United States
Previous Tournament Names:
Duration
Tournament Name
2019-Present
Charles Schwab Challenge
2018
Fort Worth Invitational
2016-2017
Dean & DeLuca Invitational
2007-2015
Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial
2003-2006
Bank of America Colonial
1996-2002
MasterCard Colonial
1995
Colonial National Invitation
1989-1994
Southwestern Bell Colonial
1946-1948; 1950-1988
Colonial National Invitation
Tournament Records:
Most Wins at Event:
5 – Ben Hogan (1946, 1947, 1952, 1953, 1959)
Course Records:
72-Hole Record (Colonial Country Club):
259, Zach Johnson (2010)
18-Hole Record (Colonial Country Club):
61, Keith Clearwater (Round 2, 1993), Lee Janzen (final round, 1993), Greg Kraft (Round 3, 1999), Kenny Perry (Round 3, 2003), Justin Leonard (final round, 2003), Chad Campbell (Round 3, 2004), Kevin Na (final round, 2018)
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
Originally crafted by John Bredemus & Perry Maxwell in 1936, Colonial Country Club features a Par 70 layout, comprising four Par 3s, twelve Par 4s, and two Par 5s.
Colonial Country Club stretches to 7,289 yards, making it one of the longer tracks on the PGA TOUR—ranking 12th out of 44 in total length. While distance matters, the real challenge lies in its tight corridors: fairways average just 27.5 yards wide, the 4th narrowest on Tour. The greens are small, too, averaging around 5,000 square feet, demanding precision on approach. Bunkers, however, are less of a concern here—there are only 64 on the course, the 5th fewest of any regular TOUR stop.
The four Par 3’s range between 194 yards and 248 yards. In terms of stats, three of the Par 3’s range between 175-200 yards. In the last edition of this event, all of the Par 3’s had a scoring average over par.
No. 4, 247 Yards, Par 3: This is the longest of the par 3s. The elevated green is difficult to hold. This is the only par 3 that has not yielded a hole-in-one during the 62-year history of the tournament. Last year, this was the toughest par 3 with only 24 birdies compared to 87 bogeys.
There are twelve Par 4’s at Colonial Country Club with the majority (ten) of those holes ranging between 400 and 500 yards.No. 2 is the shortest Par 4 listed at 385 yards with the longest being No. 7, playing 480 yards.In terms of scoring average, the toughest Par 4 on the course last year was No. 5 (+0.342).
No. 3, 475 Yards, Par 4: This is the beginning of Colonial’s “Horrible Horseshoe” — the three most difficult holes on the golf course. The long dogleg left requires a perfectly placed tee shot around a large tree and bunkers. A long approach shot makes birdies rare.
No. 5, 476 Yards, Par 4: This is the hardest hole, and the most famous, at Colonial and the last of the “Horrible Horseshoe.” The tee shot must be precise — there’s a ditch to the left and a river on the right. Even a good tee shot leaves a long, narrow approach. Last year, this was the toughest hole on the course with a scoring average of 0.342 strokes over par.
There are only two Par 5’s at Colonial Country Club, No. 1 & No. 11. They both played under par in 2024, despite being some of the longer par 5’s on Tour. The easiest hole on the course last year was No. 1 with a scoring average of 4.646.
No. 1, 565 Yards, Par 5: Off the tee, players will try to aim up the right side of the hole to avoid the fairway bunkers along the left. If they’re able to do so, they’ll have a wedge in allowing them a chance at birdie. Last year, this was the easiest hole on the course with a scoring average of -0.354 under par.
No. 11, 635 Yards, Par 5: This is a narrow hole requiring a precise tee shot off the tee. Most players will not be able to reach the green in two. Instead, they’ll lay up around 125 leaving them a short shot in while avoiding the several fairway bunkers.
The Charles Schwab Challenge takes place at Colonial Country Club. Here are the key statistics to keep an eye on for this week’s event.
Statistics
PGA Tour Average
Colonial Country Club
Driving Distance (Yards)
284.10
278.96
Driving Accuracy
62%
57%
GIR Percentage
66%
64%
Avg GIR Prox. to Hole (Feet)
29.33
25.83
Scrambling Percentage
58%
59%
Avg 3 Putts / Round
0.55
0.44
Per DataGolf, this is the favored skillset at Colonial Country Club.
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Success this week will hinge on players’ ability to position themselves effectively off the tee. While the course’s considerable length underscores the significance of distance, precision holds equal importance. Three of the last four winners ranked sixth or better in SG: Off the Tee the week they won.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Rico Hoey
Scottie Scheffler
Michael Thorbjornsen
Joseph Bramlett
Keith Mitchell
Luke List
Aldrich Potgieter
Taylor Moore
Steven Fisk
Kevin Yu
Strokes Gained: Approach
The blueprint is clear: Each of the last five winners ranked 12th in SG: Approach the week they won. Colonial’s small greens put a premium on hitting precise irons and controlling spin.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Scottie Scheffler
Henrik Norlander
Daniel Berger
Tom Hoge
Eric Cole
Bud Cauley
Sami Valimaki
Si Woo Kim
Max McGreevy
Joel Dahmen
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
The greens at Colonial are 007XL Bentgrass (.100” cut) and run pure. Each of the past five champions ranked 8th or better in SG: Putting during their victory week.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Mackenzie Hughes
Vince Whaley
Harry Hall
Brian Campbell
Harris English
Andrew Novak
Max Greyserman
Pierceson Coody
Aaron Rai
J.T. Poston
Fairways Gained
Colonial Country Club features some of the narrowest fairways on the PGA TOUR, averaging just 27 yards in width—well below the Tour average. With tight doglegs and strategic bunkering, missing the fairway often leads to punch-outs or blocked approaches. Accuracy off the tee isn’t just helpful here—it’s essential. Players who can consistently find the short grass are best positioned to attack small greens and avoid compounding mistakes.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Aaron Rai
Takumi Kanaya
Brice Garnett
Ben Kohles
Brandt Snedeker
Olin Browne
Victor Perez
Max McGreevy
Joel Dahmen
Daniel Berger
Par 3 Scoring: 175-200 Yards (x3)
Three of Colonial’s four Par 3s fall in this range, making this a crucial scoring segment.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Scottie Scheffler
J.T. Poston
Lucas Glover
Eric Cole
Cameron Davis
Patrick Rodgers
Brandt Snedeker
Vince Whaley
Harry Hall
Nicolas Echavarria
Par 4 Scoring: 400-450 Yards / 450-500 Yards
Half of Colonial’s par 4s (10 of 12) fall in the 400–500 yard range (five each in the 400–450 and 450–500 yard buckets). Contenders will need to play these holes well.
Leaders in Par 4 Scoring: 400-450 Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
Henrik Norlander
Chris Gotterup
Aaron Rai
Sam Stevens
Max McGreevy
Scottie Scheffler
Michael Kim
Tommy Fleetwood
Ricky Castillo
Harry Hall
Leaders in Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
Scottie Scheffler
Chad Ramey
Maverick McNealy
Matt Kuchar
Alex Smalley
Aaron Rai
Justin Lower
Michael Kim
Hideki Matsuyama
Davis Riley
Bogey Avoidance Gained
Mistakes at Colonial are costly, especially with how tightly the course plays. Big numbers lurk around every corner, making bogey avoidance a key factor in staying in contention.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Scottie Scheffler
Alex Smalley
Eric Cole
Maverick McNealy
Harris English
Danny Willett
Henrik Norlander
Davis Riley
J.T. Poston
Ricky Castillo
Proximity Gained: 125-175 Yards
Most approach shots at Colonial come from the 125–175 yard window, a much higher frequency than the PGA TOUR average. Dialed-in wedge and short-iron play is a major separator.
Leaders in the Proximity 125-150 Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
Seamus Power
Lee Hodges
Sami Valimaki
Emilliano Grillo
Ryan Gerard
Camilo Villegas
Tommy Fleetwood
Nate Lashley
Henrik Norlander
Tom Kim
Leaders in the Proximity 150-175 Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
Tom Kim
Charley Hoffman
Henrik Norlander
Will Zalatoris
Scottie Scheffler
Karl Villips
Sami Valimaki
Aaron Rai
Andrew Putnam
Tom Hoge
Course History & Comparable Courses
Course history matters at Colonial. According to DataGolf, Colonial ranks well above average in terms of predictive course history. The ability to navigate its nuanced layout, tight doglegs, and tricky green complexes tends to favor players with strong past performances here.
Leaders in this category (Stokes Gained Total in the Last 20 Rounds at Colonial Country Club):
Scottie Scheffler
Jordan Spieth
Davis Riley
Daniel Berger
Lucas Glover
Brian Harman
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Gary Woodland
David Lipsky
Maverick McNealy
The Field:
The 2025 Charles Schwab Challenge will feature a field of 135 players, with eleven of the top 30 in the Official World Golf Ranking set to compete.
Basis of qualification for each entrant this week:
Colonial winners prior to 2000 and in the last five years
Colonial Winners in top 150 of prior year FedEx Cup points list
The Players Championship and major championship winners in the last five years
The Tour Championship and World Golf Championships winners in the past three years
Arnold Palmer Invitational and Memorial winners in the past three years
PGA Tour tournament winners since the last Colonial tournament
Playing members on the last named U.S. Ryder Cup team
Current PGA Tour members who were playing members on the last named European Ryder Cup team, U.S. Presidents Cup team, and International President’s Cup team
Two players to be selected by the current and former champions of the Colonial tournament (Champions Choices)
Top 15 finishers and ties from previous year’s Colonial Tournament
12 sponsors exemptions — 2 from among graduates of Web.com Tour finals, 6 members not otherwise exempt, and 4 unrestricted
Top 50 Official World Golf Ranking through the Masters
Top 80 from prior year’s FedEx Cup points list
Members in the top 125 non-member category whose non-WGC points for the previous season equal or exceed the points earned by the player finishing in 80th position on the prior year FedEx Cup points list
Top 80 from current year’s FedEx Cup points list through the tournament two weeks prior
Any remaining positions are filled from current year’s FedEx Cup points list
Previous Winners in the Field (Event):
Davis Riley (’24), Emiliano Grillo (’23), Daniel Berger (’20), Kevin Kisner (’17), Jordan Spieth (’16), Chris Kirk (’15)
Debutants in the Field:
Aldrich Potgieter, Blades Brown, Brian Campbell, Danny Walker, David Ford, Frankie Capan III, Isaiah Salinda, Jackson Suber, Jacob Bridgeman, Jake Knapp, Jeremy Paul, Jesper Svensson, Joe Highsmith, Karl Vilips, Kevin Roy, Kevin Velo, Kristoffer Ventura, Matt McCarty, Matteo Manassero, Michael Thorbjornsen, Neal Shipley, Noah Goodwin, Norman Xiong, Patrick Fishburn, Paul Peterson, Quade Cummins, Ricky Castillo, Rico Hoey, Ryan Gerard, Steven Fisk, Takumi Kanaya, Taylor Dickson, Thorbjorn Olesen, Trace Crowe, Will Chandler, and William Mouw.
Exemptions:
Zac Blair – Sponsors Exemptions – Members not otherwise exempt
Michael Block – Sponsor Exemptions – Unrestricted
David Ford – Sponsor Exemptions – Unrestricted
Nick Hardy – Sponsors Exemptions – Members not otherwise exempt
Kevin Kisner – Sponsors Exemptions – Members not otherwise exempt
John Pak – Sponsors Exemptions – Korn Ferry Tour Finals
Ryan Palmer – Sponsors Exemptions – Members not otherwise exempt
Webb Simpson – Sponsors Exemptions – Members not otherwise exempt
Brandt Snedeker – Sponsors Exemptions – Members not otherwise exempt
Jackson Suber – Sponsors Exemptions – Korn Ferry Tour Finals
Matt Wallace – Sponsor Exemptions – Unrestricted
Danny Willett – Sponsor Exemptions – Unrestricted
Notable Withdraws/ Changes:
Akshay Bhatia (IN)
Rasmus Hojgaard (WD)
Nicolai Hojgaard (WD), William Mouw (In)
Zach Johnson (WD); Camilo Villegas (IN on own number); Matt Wallace (IN as unrestricted sponsor exemption)
Will There Be a Playoff at the Charles Schwab Challenge? (Yes +400 / No -650)
The Charles Schwab Challenge has ended in a playoff in three of the last five years. In 2024, Davis Riley won by five strokes in a dominant performance. Prior to that, Emiliano Grillo defeated Adam Schenk in a playoff in 2023, and in 2022, Sam Burns outlasted Scottie Scheffler in extra holes. Daniel Berger also won in a playoff over Collin Morikawa in 2020. Given the tournament’s recent trend, there’s some value on “Yes” at +400.
Will There Be A Hole-in-One at the Charles Schwab Challenge (Yes +100/ No -130)
There were no holes-in-one in 2024, but in 2023, there were two aces, both occurring at the par-3 8th hole. With several short par-3s in the rotation at Colonial, the potential for an ace is always in play.
Recent Horses for Courses (Colonial Country Club):
Charles Schwab Challenge
Charles Schwab Challenge
Charles Schwab Challenge
Charles Schwab Challenge
Charles Schwab Challenge
Colonial Country Club
Colonial Country Club
Colonial Country Club
Colonial Country Club
Colonial Country Club
Golfer
Events Played
SG: Total (Event)
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
Scottie Scheffler
5
+31.28
T2
T3
2
MC
T55
Jordan Spieth
12
+29.07
T37
MC
T7
2
T10
Davis Riley
3
+25.40
WON
MC
T4
–
–
Daniel Berger
6
+23.26
T45
–
T23
T20
WON
Lucas Glover
17
+20.26
T12
–
T40
T8
T23
Brian Harman
12
+17.83
T24
T29
MC
T8
T23
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
4
+16.72
T17
T21
T15
–
MC
Gary Woodland
5
+13.49
T45
–
MC
T14
9
David Lipsky
3
+13.15
T9
T16
T48
–
–
Maverick McNealy
6
+12.84
T17
T52
MC
T20
T32
Lee Hodges
3
+12.15
T12
T29
T35
–
–
Recent Donkeys for Courses (Colonial Country Club):
Charles Schwab Challenge
Charles Schwab Challenge
Charles Schwab Challenge
Charles Schwab Challenge
Charles Schwab Challenge
Colonial Country Club
Colonial Country Club
Colonial Country Club
Colonial Country Club
Colonial Country Club
Golfer
Events Played
SG: Total (Event)
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
Sam Ryder
5
-20.27
MC
MC
MC
MC
MC
Erik Van Rooyen
3
-13.12
–
MC
MC
–
MC
Taylor Moore
3
-12.23
MC
MC
MC
–
–
Greyson Sigg
3
-11.23
MC
MC
MC
–
–
Michael Block
2
-18.77
MC
MC
–
–
–
Dylan Wu
2
-7.77
MC
MC
–
–
–
Danny Willett
2
-6.73
–
MC
–
–
MC
Eric Cole
2
-3,77
MC
MC
–
–
–
Mackenzie Hughes
5
-2.11
–
–
–
MC
MC
Nate Lashley
6
-3.85
MC
MC
MC
T32
MC
Previous Winners Scores, Prices, and Strokes Gained (Rank at Tournament):
2024: Davis Riley (-14)
Price: 350-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Davis Riley
6th
1st
2nd
39th
4th
2023: Emiliano Grillo (-8)
Price: 80-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Emiliano Grillo
41st
20th
6th
43rd
2nd
2022: Sam Burns (-9)
Price: 30-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Sam Burns
6th
9th
12th
38th
6th
2021: Jason Kokrak (-14)
Price: 60-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Jason Kokrak
1st
2nd
8th
61st
7th
2020: Daniel Berger (-15)
Price: 70-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Daniel Berger
31st
4th
5th
27th
8th
Previous Winners Incoming Form (Last 5 Starts):
2024: Davis Riley
T66 – Myrtle Beach Classic (PGA)
T30 – CJ CUP Byron Nelson (PGA)
T28 – Zurich Classic of New Orleans (PGA)
MC – Valero Texas Open (PGA)
T14 – Texas Children’s Houston Open (PGA)
2023: Emiliano Grillo
MC – PGA Championship (MAJ)
T23 – Wells Fargo Championship (PGA)
T5 – Mexico Open (PGA)
T7 – RBC Heritage (PGA)
T53 – Valero Texas Open
2022: Sam Burns
T20 – PGA Championship (MAJ)
MC – AT&T Byron Nelson (PGA)
2 – Zurich Classic of New Orleans (PGA)
MC – The Masters (MAJ)
WON – Valspar Championship (PGA)
2021: Jason Kokrak
T49 – PGA Championship (MAJ)
T13 – Valspar Championship (PGA)
T21 – Zurich Classic of New Orleans (PGA)
49 – The Masters (MAJ)
T42 – WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play (PGA)
2020: Daniel Berger
T4 – The Honda Classic (PGA)
T5 – AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (PGA)
T9 – Waste Management Phoenix Open (PGA)
T29 – The American Express (PGA)
T38 – Sony Open in Hawaii (PGA)
Previous Winners Finishes at Event:
2024: Davis Riley
Charles Schwab Challenge
Charles Schwab Challenge
Colonial Country Club
Colonial Country Club
2023
2022
Davis Riley
MC
T4
2023: Emiliano Grillo
Charles Schwab Challenge
Charles Schwab Challenge
Charles Schwab Challenge
Charles Schwab Challenge
Forth Worth Invitational
DEAN & DELUCA Invitational
DEAN & DELUCA Invitational
Colonial Country Club
Colonial Country Club
Colonial Country Club
Colonial Country Club
Colonial Country Club
Colonial Country Club
Colonial Country Club
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
Emiliano Grillo
T63
T8
MC
T19
3
T24
T55
2022: Sam Burns
Charles Schwab Challenge
Forth Worth Invitational
Colonial Country Club
Colonial Country Club
2019
2018
Sam Burns
T31
MC
2021: Jason Kokrak
Charles Schwab Challenge
Forth Worth Invitational
DEAN & DELUCA Invitational
DEAN & DELUCA Invitational
Crowne Plazza Invitational
Crowne Plazza Invitational
Colonial Country Club
Colonial Country Club
Colonial Country Club
Colonial Country Club
Colonial Country Club
Colonial Country Club
2020
2018
2017
2016
2015
2013
Jason Kokrak
T3
T32
MC
T55
MC
T18
2020: Daniel Berger
Charles Schwab Challenge
Crowne Plazza Invitational
Colonial Country Club
Colonial Country Club
2019
2015
Daniel Berger
T53
MC
Picks:
Outrights
Jordan Spieth (+2500) – BetMGM
Daniel Berger (+2500) – DraftKings
Aaron Rai (+3500) – FanDuel
Harris English (+4000) – DraftKings
Ryan Gerard (+7000) – FanDuel
Lucas Glover (+8000) – BetMGM
Top 20
J.T. Poston (+160) – DraftKings
Thorbjorn Olesen (+250) – BetMGM
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.
The 2025 Preakness Stakes is set to take place on Saturday, May 17, at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore, Maryland. The first race of the day kicks off at 10:30 a.m. ET, with the Preakness Stakes itself scheduled for 7:01 p.m. ET. Fans can expect an electrifying showdown as contenders battle for the second jewel of the Triple Crown on the historic dirt track at Pimlico.
Top Contenders & Odds
Journalism (8-5) – The Derby runner-up looking for redemption.
Sandman (4-1) – A strong competitor with a closing style.
River Thames (9-2) – A promising challenger.
Clever Again (5-1) – Son of American Pharoah, with solid pedigree.
Goal Oriented (6-1) – An emerging talent.
Heart of Honor (12-1) – A consistent performer.
American Promise (15-1) – A Derby contender looking to improve.
Pay Billy (20-1) – A dark horse with potential.
Gosger (20-1) – A longshot hoping to surprise.\
Handicap:
The way that I am approaching this race is simple. Journalism is by far the best horse here. It isn’t good news that he is so favored at about 1/1, but at the same time, we can put a little bit more on our tickets for him to hit the big one. My strategy is to go bigger on the exotics with Tris and Exactas with Journalism on top. I think that the second position might be good for River Thames, Clever Again, and Goal Oriented. I do have a sleeper in this race in American Promise. This horse was a sharp side in the Kentucky derby. He had a bad trip on a sloppy track, and his price is just too good to pass up for the Preakness. Sandman is a favorite that I will be fading once again, but I will add Sandman to my exactas as a savor situation. Here is my ticket with the total investment of $250. You could split it in half and pay $125 if you wish. Best of luck everyone!
