Week 2 NFL Slate with JKSportsBets
Welcome back everyone! It was a long offseason, but we’re finally back. The NHL preseason starts this weekend and the NHL regular season is only three weeks away. What a time to be alive!
As I have found in my handicapping duties, week 1 in the NFL is notoriously random. There are a couple reasons for this. First, so much hype builds throughout the offseason that it can be tough to tell what teams and players are going to do or look like. Second, the first week is the first chance we have to see offensive starters play defensive starters and vice versa. Third, it’s been seven months since we’ve seen a meaningful football game, so it can be easy to deceive ourselves. For that reason, I generally take week 1 off. It usually pays dividends, although this year I did go 4-1 in week 1, so hopefully that can continue!
Arizona Cardinals @ Baltimore Ravens – Sunday, 09/15, 10 AM Pacific
The Ravens are currently 13-point favorites; since December of 2014, they’ve only been 13+ favorites just twice. If you actually watched the Ravens/Dolphins game last week, though, you know that was more of a result of the Dolphins looking dreadful than the Ravens looking great. Sure, Lamar Jackson’s passing has improved, and Mark Ingram looked great. Jackson seemed to throw the ball with ease. But the Cardinals’ passing defense was very good last year and went well under the radar. They boasted the fourth fewest passing yards and the third fewest passing touchdowns last season. The market seems to be overreacting to Baltimore’s win last week; unfortunately for Ravens fans, they don’t get the ‘Fins each weekend. Kyler Murray looked really bad at the beginning of the game against the Lions, but he clearly made consistent, sustainable progress as the game went on. He looked like a different player in the fourth quarter. This Cardinals team may surprise a lot of people. Take the spread, and if you really feel so bold, take the ML at +496 for ½ unit or something. I won’t, but my model puts the ML at +300 so I won’t fault you for it.
ARI Cardinals +13 (-110), 2u
Los Angeles Chargers @ Detroit Lions – Sunday, 09/15, 10 AM Pacific
The Chargers travel to Detroit as 1.5-point favorites, and this one confuses me. It has the makings of a trap game, but I can’t stay away. I think the oddsmakers believe that Detroit should have won last week, which is debatable at worst. Even so, it’s reasonable to expect the Cardinals to trip coming out the gate in the first plays of their first game with their new offense, so Detroit’s early lead wasn’t surprising. Meanwhile, Los Angeles barely beat Indy last weekend but, watching that game, it appeared to be more of a surprise from the Colts than the other side of the ball. The Chargers looked really good for most of the game (minus the first 10 minutes) last week. In fact, the Chargers have beaten the spread in their last six road games and are 12-3 in the last 15 ATS on the road. The week 1 overreaction is real, folks, so take LA on the road.
LA Chargers -1.5 (-110), 3u
Seattle Seahawks @ Pittsburgh Steelers – Sunday, 09/15, 10 AM Pacific
The ‘Hawks travel to Pittsburgh for week 2. Man did the Steelers look lost in week 1, and while the Pats continue to look like a perennial SB contender, I think Pittsburgh will struggle this year more than people think. Antonio Brown was a huge part of that offense, and JuJu looked adequate at best. Brown affected much more than Big Ben, too. When you have both Brown and JuJu, it opens up the middle of the field and allows for the running game to pick up chunks. The Pats took advantage of this and held Connor to 2.1 YPC on Sunday. They forced Ben to throw the ball, and they knew that he’s abysmal on the road. Now coming back home, many are looking for a bounce back performance from him. Say what you will about Pete Carroll, but he’s a smart coach and he has talent around him this year. He will try to replicate what made New England successful last week. I like Seattle to pound with Chris Carson and try to keep the ball out of the Steelers hands. If Seattle opens a lead like New England did, it could be a long night for Big Ben.
SEA Seahawks +2.5 (1st Half), (-105), 1u
SEA Seahawks +3.5, (-110), 2u
New Orleans Saints @ Los Angeles Rams, Sunday, 09/15, 1:25 PM Pacific
The last bet I like is the total in the Rams/Saints game. A rematch of the controversial NFC Championship game last year, this game has been all over the media. It should be fantastic, and I may well be there as a Los Angeles resident. My model puts the total in this game much higher, however. Both defenses looked bad in week 1; the Rams allowing Cam Newton to put up 27 points while the Bucs allowed less than 20 just a few days later. The Saints left holes all over the place for Duke Johnson and Carlos Hyde. Hyde got 8.1 yards per carry. 8.1! A perennial sub-4 YPC guy, a player who scored over 70 points less than an average RB would have during 2018 with his chances, tore up this Saints D for 81 yards on only 10 carries. I really like Gurley this week in DFS GPP for that reason. Regardless, look for Goff to show more of his weeks 1-10 self from last year. Kamara should have a big game, Cooper Kupp probably scores along with Robert Woods. Gurley looks like his old self. I expect this one to vault past the total by the fourth quarter. A 34-31 game is clearly possible. Take the over and add in the team totals.
LA Rams/NO Saints OVER 52, (-110), 2u
LA Rams TT OVER 27, (-110), 1u
NO Saints TT OVER 25, (-110), 1u
Fade of the week:
New England, -18.5 – I know the Dolphins are tanking, but they have such a good track record at home against the Pats, and 18.5 is just TOO MUCH.
Parlay of the week:
LAC ML, SEA ML, CIN ML, KC ML, LA/NO OVER 52, CHI ML, CLE ML (+5057)
As always, follow on twitter @jksportsbets as in-game plays can be released any time. Let’s have a great one!
