We have a GREAT show for you today! College Football in the books and now it’s time to recap and do some analysis! First, Kiev recaps the weekend with the good, the bad, and the ugly. Next, we talk some final scores with brief box score analysis. Then, Kiev talks about the College Football misleading scores & betting spots for next week. Who could let down? After that, we give out a Free Play for the upcoming weekend. Finally, Kiev talks some fantasy football sleepers. Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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Mississippi State vs Southern Miss +13.5 O/U 61.5
🏈 Game Details
Date: Saturday, August 30, 2025
Time: 12:00 PM ET
Location: M.M. Roberts Stadium, Hattiesburg, MS
Weather Forecast: 91°F, humid, 20% chance of thunderstorms 🌦️
TV: ESPN+
🧠 Context & Storylines
Mississippi State is coming off a rough 2–10 season but enters Year 2 under Jeff Lebby with optimism. QB Blake Shapen returns from injury and leads a revamped offense featuring 37 transfers and JUCO talent.
Southern Miss hit rock bottom at 1–11 last year. They’ve since hired Charles Huff (ex-Marshall HC) and brought in 65 transfers, including QB Braylon Braxton and a slew of defensive starters from Marshall.
📊 Key Matchup Metrics
Category
Mississippi State
Southern Miss
2024 Points/Game (Offense)
25.8 (91st)
15.3 (132nd)
2024 Points Allowed/Game
34.1 (115th)
37.8 (127th)
Turnovers Forced
12 (110th)
10 (125th)
ATS Record (2024)
7–5
4–8
🔍 Betting & Prediction
Spread: Mississippi State -13.5
Over/Under: 60.5
Implied Score: MSU 37, USM 24
Win Probability: MSU ~82.6%, USM ~21.7%
Prediction: Mississippi State 39, Southern Miss 18
🧨 X-Factors
MSU RB Davon Booth and WR Kevin Coleman Jr. could feast if the OL holds up.
Southern Miss’ defense is a mystery box—loaded with Marshall talent but untested as a unit.
Expect MSU to test the run early and stretch the field if Shapen looks sharp.
Prediction:
When the Bulldogs scheduled the Golden Eagles, I bet they didn’t think that Charlie Huff was going to be the coach. I also bet that they didn’t think that Charlie was going to bring almost his whole Marshall team that won the Sun belt with him. That total number was 18 transfers. If you are capping this game using stats from the Golden Eagles from last season, you are flat out doing it wrong. Now don’t get me wrong, I do know that Mississippi State was embarrassed last year, and will want a better showing, but let’s face it, Blake Shapen wasn’t exactly amazing before he got injured, and his defense was atrocious. We all know that Marshall was in the easier conference, but they at least had a .5 net yards per play margin. Mississippi state was at -.59. This team also lost to Toledo at home before Blake Shapen went out. Had this game be in Starkville, this spread would make a lot more sense.
Southern Miss +13.5 – 1.5 stars
LSU vs Clemson +3.5 O/U
🏈 Game Details
Date: Saturday, August 30, 2025
Time: 7:30 PM ET
Location: Memorial Stadium (Death Valley), Clemson, SC
Weather Forecast: 84°F, humid, 10% chance of rain 🌤️
TV: ABC
📊 Team Comparison
Metric
LSU
Clemson
2024 Record
9–4
10–4
Head Coach (2025)
Brian Kelly (4th year)
Dabo Swinney (17th year)
Returning QB
Garrett Nussmeier
Cade Klubnik
Offensive Rank (2024)
47th (30.5 PPG)
18th (34.7 PPG)
Defensive Rank (2024)
59th (24.3 PAPG)
49th (23.4 PAPG)
Turnover Margin (2024)
–4
+12
ATS Record (2024)
5–8
6–8
🔮 Betting Lines & Projections
Category
Value
Spread
Clemson –3.5
Over/Under
57.5
Moneyline
Clemson –181 / LSU +150
Implied Score
Clemson 30, LSU 27
Win Probability
Clemson ~64.4%, LSU ~35.6%
🧨 Key Players to Watch
LSU Tigers
QB Garrett Nussmeier – 4,052 YDS, 29 TD, 12 INT
WR Aaron Anderson – 884 YDS, 5 TD
RB Caden Durham – 753 YDS, 6 TD
Clemson Tigers
QB Cade Klubnik – 3,639 YDS, 36 TD, 6 INT
WR Antonio Williams – 902 YDS, 11 TD
RB Phil Mafah – 1,125 YDS, 8 TD
Prediction:
The battle of the Tigers in death valley. Kinda both huh? This game isn’t hard for me. I have LSU as the better team in my power ratings. Both teams return their quarterbacks an some skill positions. Clemson made it into the playoffs last year, but I honestly think that they were very fortunate to get past SMU in the ACC championship game. Look, I am not low on Clemson, but this is basically a numbers play. Clemson has the better statistics in general based on EPA and yards per play, but we have to notice that their schedule only ranked 58th last year while LSU’s ranked 8th. Both teams have great receiving cores and offensive lines, but I like Nussmeier more than Klubnick a quarterback. Looking at recruiting, LSU ranks higher. The LSU tigers also rank number 2 in the nation in On3 net transfer portal rankings. I think Brian Kelly is a good dog here. Take the points.
San Jose State wide receiver Jermaine Braddock (13) celebrates after scoring a touchdown against Nevada during the first half of an NCAA college football game Friday, Dec. 11, 2020, in Las Vegas. (AP Photo/John Locher)
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🗓️ Game Details
Item
Info
Matchup
Auburn Tigers vs. Baylor Bears
Date
Friday, August 29, 2025
Time
8:00 PM ET / 5:00 PM MST
Location
McLane Stadium — Waco, Texas
TV Broadcast
FOX
Weather
Clear skies, 89°F at kickoff
Attendance
Expected 45,000+
Line Movement
Opened Auburn -1.5, now Auburn -2.5
🔥 Game Context
Auburn Tigers: Coming off a disappointing 5–7 season, Hugh Freeze needs a fast start to avoid a brutal SEC gauntlet (Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Georgia, Missouri).
Baylor Bears: Closed 2024 strong with a six-game win streak before falling to LSU in the Texas Bowl. Dave Aranda’s squad is looking to make noise early in the Big 12.
📊 Betting Lines & Odds
Category
Auburn Tigers
Baylor Bears
Spread
-2.5
+2.5
Moneyline
-135
+114
Over/Under
57.5 points
🔍 Key Matchups
Auburn Offense vs. Baylor Defense
QB Jackson Arnold (transfer from Oklahoma) gets the start. He’s got a loaded WR room: Cam Coleman, Eric Singleton Jr., Horatio Fields.
Baylor’s defense struggled last year (234.2 pass yards allowed/game, 152 rush yards/game). Aranda wants to force predictable passing downs to contain Auburn’s explosive play-action game.
Baylor Offense vs. Auburn Defense
QB Sawyer Robertson: 3,071 yards, 28 TDs in 2024.
RB Bryson Washington: Over 1,100 all-purpose yards last season. He’s the X-factor if Auburn’s front seven can’t contain the run.
Auburn’s defense is solid but has questions up front. If Washington gets loose, Baylor’s offense could be tough to stop.
🧠 Strategic Edge
Auburn’s Advantage: Star power at WR vs. Baylor’s shaky secondary.
Baylor’s Advantage: Speed and depth on defense, plus a more proven offensive core.
🌤️ Game Weather Forecast – Auburn vs. Baylor
Location: McLane Stadium, Waco, TX
Kickoff Time: 8:00 PM ET / 7:00 PM CT
Forecast:
Temperature: Dropping from mid-90s°F to low 80s°F during the game
Low Tonight: Around 71°F
Conditions: Partly cloudy skies, light breeze
Humidity: Moderate, could impact conditioning early on
Prediction:
Everyone rants and raves on how the SEC gets talent, and then they all forget about how many studs are in the state of Texas. Baylor returns a ton of guys from last season. The Bears rank number nine in returning production including quarterback Sawyer Robertson. I like Sawyer Robertson. He was 5th in QBR last season. I think that this team was the best in the Big 12 from 2024. Another great thing for the Bear is that they return offensive coordinator Jake Spavital. This is a good situation not only for the qaurterback, but also for head coach Dave Aranda. Auburn returns a lot of production as well ranking 21st, but I have to ask what does that mean when this team in 2024 lost games against all the ranked teams that they had played. The Tigers get Jackson Arnold from the portal to replace Payton Thorne. Arnold wasn’t exactly ripping it up back at Oklahoma. I think that Robertson is the much better quarterback in this matchup. The wrong team is favored here in my honest opinion. I’ll take the Bears plus the points.
Nov 3, 2018; Columbus, OH, USA; Nebraska Cornhuskers defensive lineman Ben Stille (95) celebrates after a fourth down stop against the Ohio State Buckeyes during the first quarter at Ohio Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports
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Kiev O’Neil’s Sports Betting Stats and Records!
56% 139-109-5 up 22 units in the 2023 NFL Season!
2024 MLB Season 111-93-11 up 8.3U
2023 MLB Season 146-123-7 up 11U
2023/2024 College Basketball up 9U
63% for 2022/2023 NBA sides and totals! 22-13 up 6.5 units. 14% ROI
55% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 5.21% ROI
56% 2022/2023 NFL Season 136-109-11 in Sides/Totals/Teasers/Season props up 38.5U
55% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 4.75% ROI
63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!
54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball 3% ROI
38% Lifetime UFC On All Plays 3% ROI
62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!
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🏟️ Game Details
Date: Thursday, August 28, 2025
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Location: InfoCision Stadium–Summa Field (Akron, OH)
Broadcast: ESPN+
📊 Team Comparison
Category
Wyoming Cowboys
Akron Zips
2024 Record
3–9
4–8
Points/Game (Offense)
19.3 (123rd)
20.4 (120th)
Points/Game (Defense)
28.3 (90th)
32.0 (111th)
Rush Yards/Game
137.8
148.2
Pass Yards/Game
184.6
232.4
Turnover Margin
-5
-10
Win Probability
64.6%
35.4%
Spread
Wyoming -6.5
Akron +6.5
Over/Under
48.5
🧠 Key Player Matchups
Position
Wyoming Cowboys
Akron Zips
QB
Evan Svoboda – 1,308 YDS, 5 TD, 8 INT
Ben Finley – 2,604 YDS, 16 TD, 9 INT
RB
Sam Scott – 435 YDS, 3 TD, 4.7 YPC
Jordon Simmons – 664 YDS, 2 TD, 6.0 YPC
WR/TE
John Michael Gyllenborg – 425 YDS, 3 TD
Adrian Norton – 831 YDS, 7 TD
Defense
Shae Suiaunoa (LB) – 75 TKL, 8 TFL
Akron lost key defenders to portal
🌧️ Game Day Weather – Akron, OH (Aug 28, 2025)
Expect light rain throughout the day with a high of 70°F and low of 53°F. Precipitation chances are 83% during the day and 45% at night, with winds around 11 mph from the southwest
🧠 Advanced Angles
Tempo Control: Wyoming’s run-heavy offense (137.8 YPG) will try to slow the game and limit Akron’s possessions.
Explosiveness: Akron averaged 232.4 passing YPG (59th nationally) and has a legit WR1 in Norton.
Defensive Vulnerability: Both teams allowed over 180 rushing YPG last season. Whoever wins the trenches likely wins the game.
Prediction:
This is a hold your nose type of play, but I don’t understand this line. Wyoming was down right pitiful last year. I would like to say that they at least are returning some of their good players, but neither team is really bringing back a whole lot minus a quarterback. I do not see a coaching advantage with Jay Sawvel over Joe Moorehead. Looking at the stats from last year, the Zips were the better team. They have a .75 net yards per play advantage over the Pokes. They also had better EPA numbers on both offense and defense. I like how Akron finished their season with two wins including one against Toledo. This is really a game where Wyoming should not be favored by much at all on the road. The Mountain West was terrible last year, especially against the run. We see some rain in the forecast which favors the rushing team. Akron ranked 66th in defensive rush EPA while Wyoming ranked 106th. Take the home dog.
We have a great show for you today! College Football week 1 is finally here and we are like kids in a candy store! Joshua Nunn is back to break down a HUGE labor day weekend of football! First, Kiev talks about some contests a few huge discounts at The OddsBreakers. Next, Josh comes on and the guys get right into recapping week 0. Then, the guys get into their handicaps for college football week 1. We have plenty of Free Plays! Then, Josh and Kiev talk about some of the biggest as well as some under the radar games throughout the whole weekend. Next, the guys give out their beer bet bangers + money small plays that could cash for some extra drinks for the weekend. Finally, Kiev gets into some sharp money movement as well as recapping our tracked plays! Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful weekend!
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If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves! Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev at only $84 per month on a 1 year subscription!
You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help us out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits like free merch and plays!
Kansas City Royals' Carlos Santana (41) is congratulated by teammate Salvador Perez (13) after hitting a go-ahead three-run home run during the seventh inning of a baseball game against the Detroit Tigers at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, Mo., Saturday, July 24, 2021. (AP Photo/Colin E. Braley)
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