The Bo Sox hit the road after going 5-4 over their 9 game home stand. They haven’t faired well on the road going 6-10 so far this year. Good thing we’re not taking a side here. I’m more interested in the Red Sox team total over 5 -125. They’ve hit 5 or more runs in 7 out of the 16 games or 43.75% of the time. I like it more here because Giolito is coming off a 2 2/3 inning effort where he left with a hamstring injury. Before that he’s given up 4, 5 and 2 runs respectively going past 5 innings only once. He was one of the worst pitchers in the MLB last year. This year he’s sporting a 6.43 ERA, 4.98 FIP and 3.91 xFIP at home. He’s giving up slightly more runs than what’s expected given his fielder independent pitching (FIP) stats. I like him to give up runs here and the Bo Sox could enjoy some time away from Fenway and the expectations they had coming into the year.
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The Kentucky Derby is upon us and there is no better person to have on than Wagertalk’s Marco D’Angelo @MarcoinVegas to help us break it down! We first talk about the weather and how it may affect this race. We then go into if there could be a triple crown winner this year. Later, some breaking news about Omaha Beach comes in as we are recording this show. Next we discuss post positions and Beyer’s speed figures. Then, we discuss the favorites and the longshots and find out who we are throwing out this year! Finally talk about ways of attacking this race! Get Marco’s Kentucky Derby picks at www.wagertalk.com Promo Code Marco10
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Ok Keto fanatics, today I will give you my recipe for a 0 carb mint julep recipe that proves to compete with the real deal! At the Kentucky Derby there will be over 125,000 mint juleps served. That is over 10,000 bottles of bourbon!
Ingredients
Leaves from 6 mint sprigs 3 packets stevia sweetener 3 ounces of Makers Mark bourbon whiskey 1.5 cups crushed ice 2 ounces of water (or club soda if you like bubbles) Mint sprigs for garnish
Combine mint and stevia in a julep cup, glass or tin cocktail shaker.
Grind this mixture with a few turns of the wrist using a muddler or wooden spoon, until you smell a strong mint aroma.
Add bourbon and half the ice with the 2 ounces of water. Churn with a stirrer until the cup gets frosty.
Top with an additional pile of ice and mint sprigs. Serve with a short straw so you’ll get a nose full of mint with every drink!
Well that first-round was absolutely amazing. We have three
more rounds to go! We hit a couple picks which was nice, since the clear
majority of the hockey community whiffed on most everything. Let’s try and get
some more right in round two.
Boston v. Columbus –
Boston played a back-and-forth seven game series with Toronto, while Columbus
has been off for a week since their sweep of Tampa. This newsletter will be
released right before game 1, so I know it might be hard to get that bet in,
but try. I have a side. I will say this: teams coming off a long break after a
sweep have generally not performed as
well as expected. With that in mind, I believe in this Columbus team. Their
strength was clear against Tampa Bay, and while the Lightning did indeed
collapse, at least half that victory was attributed to the Jackets’ ability to
contain Tampa’s best players. The Bruins are deep, and they’re now the Cup
favorites, but Bobrovsky showed he can show up. And he’s about to be a free
agent. Make no mistake, Sergei plays for Columbus. But he also plays for
himself. If the Jackets go on a run and he’s the one to lead them there, the
price for him skyrockets in his next contract. Look for the Bruins to take game
1, and possibly a play on Columbus winning the series after that fact at a very
juicy plus price.
Columbus in 7.
New York Islanders v.
Carolina – The ‘Canes were one of our two successful picks, and that series
is the one I’m most proud of. They were able to hang in there just like we
thought, and pulled it off in the second most interesting game 7 of the first round.
Just like the series above, the Isles come into this series off a hefty break.
But unlike the series above, I believe the script flip flops. Carolina beat the
Caps, but barely. The Islanders are
different than Washington mainly on defense. They have bruising talent that can
contain the top lines for the Hurricanes, and they provide a much better
matchup on paper. This is unfamiliar territory for both teams in many years, so
look for the better matchup to come out on top.
New York Islanders in
5.
San Jose v. Colorado –
What a difference these two teams had in the first round. Say what you will
about the major penalty in game 7, the Sharks win was aided due to that but caused by
a variety of factors. One such factor was one I mentioned in the first round
playoff primer, and he showed up in Games 5 and 6, especially. Martin Jones,
and the Sharks D started to play more cohesively. That’s not to say they didn’t
make lots of mistakes or give up some soft goals, especially early in the
series with Vegas. But in Game 6, when Jones had 58 saves, the D around him
stepped up too. Meanwhile, the Avalanche come off a domination of Calgary in
which Grubauer and the Avs first line just destroyed everything Calgary worked
for in the regular season. I like this Colorado team a lot, but in these
situations (especially as we get deeper into the playoffs), two intangibles remain
king; experience and depth. The Sharks have Colorado beat on both regards, and
they’re now playing for both Joe’s (if they weren’t before). Look for the Sharks
to return to the WCF for the second time in four years.
San Jose in 6.
St. Louis v. Dallas –
St. Louis beat Winnipeg in a series that saw the home team win just once (game
6). Dallas comes in off a game 6 win against Nashville (we had that series
backwards). This is the hardest one for me to predict, and as such, I see it
going 7. Dallas doesn’t seem like the team to make it to the conference finals,
but then again, St. Louis doesn’t really either. They are the NHL equivalent of
Hanzel, though (they’re so hot right
now!), and momentum from the first- to the second-round is much easier to
translate than momentum from the regular season into the first-round. And yet
the Blues did that. I just don’t think Dallas can ride Bishop’s hot hand
through another series, while the Blues played the Jets very physically for six
straight games, which I did not see coming. Winning this series means St. Louis
is going to have to win at home, though, something that has not been as easy as
might be expected. They’ll get there though.
St. Louis in 7.
As for the picks? I have some game 1 picks I like, and
series picks too.
Game 1 Boston -1 (+125) 3units
San Jose ML (-130) 2units
Series WAIT ON COLUMBUS UNTIL AFTER GAME 1 New York Islanders (-125) 3units New York Islanders in 5 (Exact Result) (+550) 1unit San Jose Sharks (-130) 3units
What teams will do based on a mock draft vs what teams should do
Arizona Cardinals: Kyler Murray, QB, Oklahoma
The buzz around Murray going No. 1 has only heated up since the combine. And here’s why it makes sense: New coach Kliff Kingsbury can start his tenure in Arizona with his guy. The 5-foot-11, 207-pound Murray can run the offense Kingsbury wants to run, with no limitations. Josh Rosen is a much different quarterback than Murray, and Kingsbury was going to have to fit his Air Raid concepts to Rosen’s strengths. Now, we can question the logic behind taking a quarterback in the first round in back-to-back drafts. It’s a terrible look to ditch a top-10 pick after a year. Can general manager Steve Keim get a first-round pick for Rosen in a trade, even if it’s in 2020? That might help the Cardinals save face. There’s a lot to like about Heisman Trophy winner Murray, even if we should expect some struggles early behind Arizona’s offensive line.
What they should do: Grab Joey Bosa or Trade down and draft O-line. Why take a risk on a small Quarterback who played in a great system? The Cardinals offensive line has been the worst in the NFL over the last 2 seasons. You need to worry about protecting your investment before making your investment. I also think it was stupid to draft a QB last year in the top 12 picks and then get a coach who doesn’t match the system. If you trade down and get another second round pick, you could always draft a guy like Tyree Jackson or Trace McSorely who could fit in Cliff Kingsbury’s offense as well for much less of a cost.
San Francisco 49ers: Nick Bosa, DE, Ohio State
The 49ers could be the big winners if Murray goes No. 1 because it means the top pass-rusher — and my top-ranked prospect — is still on the board here. Two potential options:
Take Bosa and put him on the other side of new addition Dee Ford, and the edge-rushing group — a major weakness in 2018 — immediately becomes a strength.
Put the pick up for sale and get more capital to improve a talented team that still has some holes. We’ve seen San Francisco GM John Lynch trade down before; he did it in 2017, when the Bears moved up one spot to take Mitchell Trubisky, and the Niners got back two third-round picks and a fourth-rounder. Could Lynch do it again?
What they should do:
I have no problem with this pick. 49ers could use some interior line but a pass rusher could really help this team. Just don’t screw around on the contract like the Chargers did with Joey. I like how they picked up Dee Ford and Kwon Alexander as well. This could be a good unders team.
New York Jets: Josh Allen, OLB, Kentucky
This is is simple: New defensive coordinator Gregg Williams says he’s sticking with a 3-4, and Allen is the best pass-rushing outside linebacker in the class. The Jets didn’t address the position in free agency — they did spend a ton of money at inside linebacker with C.J. Mosley — so this is a clear need. The 6-foot-5, 262-pound Allen had 17 sacks and five forced fumbles last season. It’s worth noting again that New York doesn’t have a second-round pick because of the Sam Darnold trade-up last year. This is an important selection for GM Mike Maccagnan.
What they should do: I am ok with Josh Allan because the Jets need to get to Brady, but I think that there are some major needs on the O-line and a few other pass rushers that you can get later by Trading down.
Oakland Raiders: Quinnen Williams, DT, Alabama
Jon Gruden & Co. are the other big winners if Murray goes with the first pick. Instead of the top three defensive players coming off the board, at least one of them would be available at No. 4 in this scenario. And with a dire pass rush in 2018, we know the Raiders need help there. Williams (6-foot-3, 303 pounds) is coming off a stellar season and combine, and he’d be an impact player from Day 1 in the middle of the Oakland defense.
What they should do: The Raiders were one of the worst 3 defenses vs the run last year. This is the correct pick
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Devin White, ILB, LSU
White, a sideline-to-sideline linebacker who ran a 4.42-second 40-yard dash at the combine, is one of my favorite prospects in this class. And after the Bucs lost Kwon Alexander in free agency, White (6-foot, 237 pounds) can step in and fill the void at middle linebacker. As I noted in my Mock Draft 2.0, the No. 5 pick is a spot to watch for teams trying to move ahead of the Giants to draft quarterback Dwayne Haskins.
What they should do: Well if your sticking with Famous Jamis then I suppose it may be best to get some defense. Not a huge fan of the Inside linebackers this draft so I would trade down to a team wanting a QB or Edge Rusher. Tampa needs Safeties and Corners as well.
New York Giants: Dwayne Haskins, QB, Ohio State
I’ll stick with my top-ranked signal-caller here, with the Giants taking Haskins, who grew up a fan of the team. But, again, there’s no guarantee Haskins (6-foot-3, 231 pounds) will be available at No. 6, and GM Dave Gettleman might have to move up to get him. The team now has the No. 17 overall pick from the Odell Beckham Jr. trade, which could be used in another deal. It’s no certainty that the Giants take a quarterback with this pick, however; they are clearly rebuilding, have several needs (offensive tackle and edge rusher stand out) and could instead use the 17th pick for a QB.
What they should do: Dave Gettleman is trying to save face from last year not getting a QB by not committing to Haskins and saying he will go and draft the best player. Being that Drew Lock is available and almost as good, I think there is no reason to panic and try and trade up here. Haskins is the correct pick but you still need to fix that O-line and defense. Oh and your best WR is gone as well.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Jawaan Taylor, OT, Florida
The 6-foot-5, 312-pound Taylor is likely to be the top tackle off the board, ahead of Alabama’s Jonah Williams, and I also pegged him to Jacksonville in my Mock Draft 2.0. With Nick Foles taking over, he’s going to need protection on the right side. That’s where Taylor has experience, as he started 33 games there at Florida.
What they should do: I agree 100% with this pick. You need to protect Nick Foles first and foremost. Let’s see if Jacksonville can come back to where they were in 2017. They could also use a tight end.
Detroit Lions: Montez Sweat, DE, Mississippi State
I really liked Sweat’s 2018 film, as he had 11.5 sacks and was a terror off the edge for the Bulldogs. And after running a 4.41 40-yard dash at 260 pounds at the combine, he has likely locked in a spot in the top 10. There is a fit in Detroit, which just added big-money signing Trey Flowers as a replacement for Ezekiel Ansah but needs help on the other side. Sweat could be an impact pass-rusher in the tough NFC North.
What they should do: I like what Detroit did in the offseason and I really like Montez Sweat. Sweat may be the second best DE in the draft. Another option is to resign Ezekiel Ansah and draft a wide receiver or trade down. But Let’s go with the edge rusher here for the value.
Buffalo Bills: Rashan Gary, DE, Michigan
Gary had a strong combine — he ran a 4.58 40-yard dash and tested well in every workout — but we already knew he was gifted physically. The interviews were more important for him there. He was undoubtedly asked about why he had just 10.5 sacks over three seasons. This pick is a bet for his ceiling, which is extremely high, and coaches will try to get the best out of him consistently. The Bills added receivers John Brown and Cole Beasley in free agency, but don’t rule out a tight end for second-year quarterback Josh Allen here.
What they should do: I am not a Rashan Gary guy and I think he may be a bit overrated. You saw him do nothing vs the Buckeyes and Notre Dame last year. Gary likes to take Games off. Buffalo got a ton off offense in Free Agency but they could still use a good tight end. I say go with TJ Hockenson or trade down.
Denver Broncos: T.J. Hockenson, TE, Iowa
This is probably too high to go for an interior offensive linemen, and Denver addressed its need at cornerback in free agency with Kareem Jackson and Bryce Callahan. So I’ll give the Broncos the top tight end in the class in Hockenson, a complete player who will be able to start immediately. The 6-foot-5, 250-pound Hockenson has been compared to Rob Gronkowski, and you can see the similarities on film. I’m not sold Denver has a No. 1 tight end on its roster, even as it has used draft picks in recent years on Jeff Heuerman, Jake Butt and Troy Fumagalli.
What they should do: DO NOT DRAFT A TIGHT END before you know what you have with Fumagalli and Heuerman. Instead draft a real Quarterback in Drew Lock. Flacco is dunzo and never was anything to rave about.
Cincinnati Bengals: Devin Bush, ILB, Michigan
I have gone with the other Devin in previous Mock Drafts — LSU’s Devin White — but Bush isn’t far behind White as the best middle linebacker in this class. One of the prospects I picked out as a combine riser because of his workouts, Bush is always around the ball on film. The Bengals just brought back Preston Brown in free agency, but Bush could play any of the linebacker spots at the next level. He’s a three-down player.
What they should do: The Bengals defense is horrendous against both the run and the pass. I like Devin Bush here and he could be a new vocal leader to replace Vontez Burfict.
Green Bay Packers: D.K. Metcalf, WR, Ole Miss
GM Brian Gutenkunst was aggressive in free agency, addressing holes at edge rusher, safety and guard. But the Packers didn’t add a wide receiver, and I expect them to use one of their two first-round picks on one. Metcalf lit up the combine with a 4.33 40-yard dash and 40-inch vertical at 6-foot-3, 228 pounds, but there are some concerns about his lateral athleticism and health (he had a scary neck injury last season). Still, if Metcalf is 100 percent, he can be a true weapon for Aaron Rodgers.
What they should do: Packers signed some edge rushers in the offseason in the Smith’s but I really do not think they are game changing players my any means and especially because they lost Matthews. Rodgers has enough weapons in Allison and Adams in my opinion and I think they should draft Ed Oliver to help out the interior. You saw how bad that interior D line was when Muhammad Wilkerson went out last year.
Miami Dolphins: Drew Lock, QB, Missouri
I thought about Lock for Denver at No. 10 and Cincinnati at No. 11, but Miami also makes a ton of sense. The Dolphins are clearly in the beginning stages of a rebuild, and they need a new face of their franchise after parting ways with Ryan Tannehill. Lock (6-foot-4, 228 pounds) is inconsistent, but he has a strong arm and can make every throw. There have been some rumblings that Lock could be the second quarterback off the board, before Ohio State’s Dwayne Haskins. Miami could go also go offensive line with this pick, or it could try to trade down to pick up assets.
Correct Pick here is Drew Lock. Say no more but I would not rush him in and get him killed this year vs their schedule
Atlanta Falcons: Ed Oliver, DT, Houston
The Falcons were devastated by injuries on defense last season, but this is still a talented roster. They’re not far away from being back in the playoffs. Adding another interior disruptor next to Grady Jarrett makes sense here. Oliver’s weight was a hot topic last season, and he weighed in at 287 at the combine, quieting concerns that he didn’t have the size to play defensive tackle at the next level. Oliver is a tremendous athlete who could also move outside to rush the passer from the edge.
What should they do: Atlanta was horrible vs the run allowing 4.9 yards per rush last year. This is a little bit dangerous, but I think Ed Oliver is the right choice. He is a bit of a headcase getting into fights with his coach during the game over a jacket but with the right leadership this guy can be a beast.
Washington Redskins: Brian Burns, OLB, Florida State
If Washington wants Missouri quarterback Drew Lock, it might have to trade up. And since I can’t project trades here, Lock isn’t on the board at No. 15. So with a void left by Preston Smith signing with the Packers in free agency, the Redskins go with the best edge rusher on my board in Burns (6-foot-5, 249 pounds), who is rising after the combine. He can bend the edge as well as any pass-rusher in this class.
What they should do: We all know that Case Keenum isn’t the answer and Colt McCoy is undersized. Alex Smith is still hurt and he can’t win the big game . Trade up or Trade down and tank next year is the best thing to do IMO. Being that they traded their 6th round 2020 pick for Keenum I think that they will trade up so lets just say go get Haskins or Lock. What I do know is I hate this pick and it needs to be traded up or down for t this team who needs many things. . The Redskins also need O-line, Linebackers, Wide Receivers and Safeties.
Carolina Panthers: Clelin Ferrell, DE, Clemson
The Panthers signed pass-rusher Bruce Irvin to a one-year deal to help replace the retired Julius Peppers, but they need some more help now and for the long term. Ferrell is a fit as a classic 4-3 defensive end with a big frame (6-foot-4, 264 pounds). He’s not flashy on film, but he gets to quarterbacks and is strong against the run. Safety is another position to watch for Carolina.
What should they do: Greg Olson is getting old and so is my patients with Cam Newton. That being said, this team got to the top based on their defense more than anything a few years back. I am ok with an edge rusher like Ferrell here but I wouldn’t mind if they traded down and got some more picks and maybe Noah Fant
New York Giants (from CLE): Christian Wilkins, DT, Clemson
This selection ends a run on edge rushers, with six going in my top 16 picks. The Giants need help there, too, especially if they move to a 3-4 under new defensive coordinator James Bettcher, but Wilkins (6-foot-3, 315 pounds) is a different kind of defensive lineman who could play tackle in a 4-3 or end in a 3-4. He has been underrated on a loaded Clemson defense, but he had 15 tackles for loss last season.
What they should do: Right team in Clemson but wrong player. Now that they have their Quarterback, I think the next step is to get some trenches. I am fine with the offensive line here but Dexter Lawrence is a talent that can’t be passed up.
Minnesota Vikings: Jonah Williams, OT/G, Alabama
The Vikings would be thrilled with Williams, a tackle in college — he made 43 consecutive starts for the Crimson Tide — who could play guard at the next level. If Minnesota moves Riley Reiff inside to guard, Williams (6-foot-4, 302 pounds) could stick at left tackle. As always, don’t be shocked if coach Mike Zimmer and GM Rick Spielman target a pass-rusher here.
What they should do: Well the Vikings need to replace Sheldon Richardson on DT here so If Lawrence is available, I think he may be another option. I am ok with Johan Williams as well though since they lost Matt Kalil.
Tennessee Titans: Dexter Lawrence, DT, Clemson
Lawrence is the best true nose tackle in this class, a massive 6-foot-4, 342-pound rock who would be an ideal complement next to Jurrell Casey, one of the most underrated defenders in the league. The Titans have upgraded at guard and wide receiver in free agency, so this pick should be to help improve their defense, which lost a few pieces this offseason.
What they should do: Well the Titans got Cameron Wake for their edge rusher but I am still not sold on their WRs even though they added Adam Humphries. Being that WR should be pretty deep this year with no standouts I am good with a run stuffer like Dexter Lawrence.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Deandre Baker, CB, Georgia
Pittsburgh signed former Chiefs corner Steven Nelson in free agency, but the team could still target a defensive back in the round. As I wrote in my Mock Draft 2.0, former first-round pick Artie Burns had a rough 2018 season, and the Steelers need more depth at cornerback. Baker (5-foot-11, 193 pounds) had a solid combine workout, although he’s not an elite athlete. The Steelers are another team that could target an edge rusher early.
What they should do: Steelers do not have any glaring needs because of how well they did in Free Agency. I like the Moncreif pickup to replace loud mouth Antonio Brown. Their defense started out bad but got much better. The Steelers need a cornerback the most but I being that this draft will not have anybody after them grabbing corners I think a trade down is the best bet. If not then I am fine with Deandre Baker from Georgia.
Seattle Seahawks: Chris Lindstrom, G, Boston College
The Seahawks’ offensive line was one of the most improved units in 2018. And while Seattle re-signed D.J. Fluker and added Mike Iupati in free agency, the guard position isn’t solidified for the future. Lindstrom (6-foot-4, 308 pounds) is rising after his combine workout — he ran a 4.91 40-yard dash and tested well athletically — and he’s getting some first-round buzz.
What they should do. The Seahawks blew their first round pick last year drafting Raashad Penny. This pick isn’t bad but Wilson proved that he doesn’t need O’Line as much as the other teams. Plus they picked up DJ Fluker from NY. Losing Earl Thomas really hurt this defense so I would be ok with them trading down and late drafting Darnell Savage In the second round while aquiring a 3rd round pick.
Baltimore Ravens: Erik McCoy, C/G, Texas A&M
Another post-combine riser, McCoy ran the fastest 40-yard dash of any offensive lineman (4.89 seconds) in Indianapolis. And when you turn on the tape, you see a consistent player with great feet. The 6-foot-4, 303-pound McCoy started all 38 games of his Texas A&M career, including a few at guard. The versatility is a plus, and the Ravens could play him at left guard or center. Baltimore’s defense took a hit in free agency, so GM Eric DeCosta could try to upgrade at a few spots.
What they should do: I am completely fine with this pick. Great speed here. The problem with the Ravens is that they will never win a Superbowl with Lamar Jackson at the helm so I believe they truly will need a new QB at some point.
Houston Texans: Andre Dillard, OT, Washington State
As I wrote last time, the Texans’ biggest weakness in 2018 was their offensive line, as they gave up a league-high 62 sacks. And I don’t have a lot of faith that Matt Kalil is the answer. So let’s give them Dillard (6-foot-5, 315 pounds), one of the best pass-protectors in this class and a true left tackle. Houston could also address its secondary, which lost several impact players in free agency.
What they should do: I am 100% fine with Andre Dillard here. Texans had a bad offensive line and they need to give Watson more time to make plays. They do need a tight end as well.
Marshawn Lynch and Doug Martin, the Raiders’ top two backs last season, are both unsigned free agents, and the position is a huge question mark for Jon Gruden’s team in 2019. Could the best running back in the draft fall to them here? It’s possible. Jacobs has limited tread on his tires — just 300 career touches for the Crimson Tide — and is a receiving threat out of the backfield. Oakland has had a nice offseason, and with three first-rounders, these are important picks to get the franchise back on track.
What they should do: Holy cow did the Raiders spend money this year. The Raiders will probably draft an RB here but I think that they should go with Corner with Greedy Williams from LSU since they grabbed so many Safeties in the Free Agency market.
25. Philadelphia Eagles – Jonathan Abram, S, Mississippi State
Philadelphia has done a nice job filling holes this offseason. DeSean Jackson can replace Golden Tate. Malik Jackson is an upgrade on Haloti Ngata & Co. at defensive tackle. Vinny Curry will help with Michael Bennett moving on. GM Howie Roseman hasn’t addressed the secondary, however, outside of bringing back Ronald Darby on a one-year deal, which means Philly could target a safety or corner in the first round or with one of its two second-round picks. Abram (5-foot-11, 205 pounds) is my top-ranked safety, a physical tackler who showed off 4.45 40-yard dash speed at the combine.
What they should do: I am A-ok with this pick! Eagles had the 3rd worst passing defense last year and a good Safety can help
Indianapolis Colts: Terry McLaurin, WR, Ohio State
There are several wide receivers extremely close on my board, all with late Day 1 or early Day 2 grades. That includes Oklahoma’s Marquise Brown, who hasn’t been able to work out for teams because of a foot injury, and Ole Miss’ A.J. Brown, whom I had here in my Mock Draft 2.0. It also includes McLaurin, a true speed threat who averaged 20.0 yards per catch last season. The 6-foot, 208-pound wideout ran a blazing 4.35 40 at the combine. Andrew Luck needs better weapons at wideout, even after Indy added Devin Funchess in free agency.
What they should do: Trade up to get an edge rusher in Josh Allen or Montez Sweat!!!! They are 1 pass rusher away from a super bowl team in my opinion! Luck looks great!
Oakland Raiders (from DAL): Rock Ya-Sin, CB, Temple
I really liked what I saw on tape from Ya-Sin in his lone season at Temple, when he broke up 12 passes and had two interceptions. He’s an easy mover with outstanding athletic traits. Let’s plug in Ya-Sin (6-foot, 192 pounds) on the other side of Gareon Conley and consider the Raiders’ top needs filled in this first round, with an interior game-wrecker at No. 4, a top running back at No. 24, and a starting-caliber corner here.
What they should do: I am fine with this pick right here. Load up on corners in this tough passing division!
Los Angeles Chargers: Cody Ford, G/OT, Oklahoma
I thought about defensive tackle here, and Los Angeles could also target a corner. But in the 6-foot-4, 329-pound Ford, the Chargers could get a versatile offensive linemen who has started multiple games at both guard and tackle for the Sooners. He could step in at either position in L.A. Ford’s strength is in the run game — he’s a mauler.
What they should do: Did Gus Bradley ever blow against the Patriots. The Chargers need to replace their Cornerback Verrett so I like Greedy Williams or DeAndre Baker
Kansas City Chiefs: Greedy Williams, CB, LSU
With Dee Ford, Justin Houston, Eric Berry and Steven Nelson all gone, the Chiefs’ defense will look different in 2019 under new coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. And Kansas City still has questions at linebacker and the other safety spot next to Tyrann Mathieu. And even after signing Bashaud Breeland on a short-term deal, the team also needs a cornerback. You’ll notice that Williams (6-foot-2, 185 pounds) has dropped a bit; there are questions about his willingness to tackle and about his fluidity in coverage.
What they should do: KCs defense was terrible last year against the pass and the run. Trade up to get any Edge Rusher like Gary or Ferrell. I would be ok with a top DT as well. Bet the overs again this year.
Green Bay Packers (from NO): Noah Fant, TE, Iowa
Let’s go all-in on helping Aaron Rodgers. After giving the Packers a receiver at No. 12, I’ll go with the best pure pass-catching tight end in this class here with the pick they got from the Saints in last year’s draft. Fant (6-foot-4, 249 pounds) is supremely athletic and naturally gifted as a receiver, but he’s not on the same level as a blocker as his former teammate T.J. Hockenson. Green Bay could use Fant as more of a slot receiver in the same lineup as Jimmy Graham until Fant improves as a blocker.
What they should do: Fant is great but they need a playmaker at this spot. Grab Marquise Brown from Oklahoma and a tight end later.
Los Angeles Rams: Garrett Bradbury, C, NC State
Bradbury had a fantastic week at the Senior Bowl in January, and he followed it up with a strong combine workout, which has him on the fringes of Round 1. With the Rams moving on from John Sullivan this offseason, this is a straight like-for-like replacement, as Bradbury (6-foot-3, 306 pounds) could step in and start on Day 1. Cornerback is another position to watch for L.A., with the futures of Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib uncertain.
What they should do: They need a center so I am ok here but they also need to replace Suh on defense or they will get ran on.
New England Patriots: Irv Smith Jr., TE, Alabama
What now for the Super Bowl champs? Bill Belichick always has a plan. Rob Gronkowski is retiring, and the Patriots also lost several big contributors in free agency, including Trent Brown, Trey Flowers, Cordarrelle Patterson, Dwayne Allen and Malcom Brown. They already have replacements for a few of these players, but tight end is another story. Smith is a notch below T.J. Hockenson, but he’s a solid, all-around player who can hold his own as a blocker. And we know Belichick has an affinity for Nick Saban and Alabama. This pairing makes sense.
What they should do: Whatever Bill Bellichek Says!!! A tight end is just fine
Sports Betting - The OddsBreakers - Wagering - Handicapping
The NFL Draft is upon us and today we break down what teams should do compared to their mock draft! We also look at some of the draft odds such as Kyler Murray going first overall! We of course have a few draft plays for you!
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Dwayne Haskins*, QB, Ohio State Height: 6-3. Weight: 231. Arm: 33.50. Hand: 9.63. 40 Time: 5.04. Projected Round (2019): Top-20. Pros: Haskins has definitely proven to be the best of the bunch. In 2018, he completed 70 percent of his passes for 4,831 yards with 50 touchdowns and eight interceptions. Haskins struggled as a pocket passer against Penn State but he dominated Michigan’s tough defense. As a sophomore, he completed 70 percent of his passes for 565 yards with four touchdowns and an interception. Haskins has a strong arm with the potential to be a pocket passer who can pick apart a good defense using check-downs.
Some say, Haskins should have returned to Ohio State for 2019 to improve his overall play before going to the NFL, but due to his profile, it was a smart decision as he looks destined to go in the top 20. Haskins was first-year starter in 2018 has upside to grow. He had solid interviews at the combine to solidify his status as a high first-rounder.
Cons: Tends to feel way to comfortable with a lead as we saw Washington come back in the Rosebowl. Only 1 year as a starter. Contrary to what Stephen A Smith said, Haskins is not a scrambler only rushing 108 yards last year and will not do much with this legs. He needs to be a bit more consistent and improve his vision down field.
Drew Lock, QB, Missouri Height: 6-3. Weight: 228. Arm: 33.50. Hand: 9.00. 40 Time: 4.69. Projected Round (2019): 1. Pros: Lock played well at the Senior Bowl, and sources said they were impressed with how quickly he picked things up there. They felt that Lock picked up pro concepts faster than the other quarterbacks. Some sources like Lock’s confidence and moxie. Lock completed 61 percent of his passes in 2018 for 3,498 yards with 28 touchdowns and eight interceptions. He notched six rushing touchdowns as well. Lock played well and fought hard against Georgia, but he was plagued by dropped passes. Lock Played well without the best talent in a very tough SEC conference. Drew had a great game vs Florida. Scouts have raved about Lock’s arm strength, and that could be seen by all at the Senior Bowl. He has a rifle and is a good athlete. Sources say Lock can really spin it and is able to make every throw required for the NFL. Some sources have taken a liking to Lock, but others are somewhat skeptical. Sources believe his skill set and athleticism are similar to Jay Cutler but offset with a personality that is more similar to Eli Manning.
According to NFL teams’ preseason data provided by team sources, Lock checks in at 6-foot-3, 226 pounds. He has 33.63-inch arms, and a wingspan of 77.5 inches. Lock set the SEC single regular-season record for touchdown passes in 2017 with 43. He went on a tear in the last half of the year to lead Missouri to six straight wins after a 1-5 start. Lock completed 58 percent of his passes in 2017 for 3,964 yards with 44 touchdowns and 13 interceptions.
Cons: He is kind of a gun-slinger. He can over throw people. Just average at 61% completion. Not a vocal leader. Not really a pro style offense at Missouri. Wost of all, Lock is being compared to Jay Cutler.
Kyler Murray*, QB, Oklahoma Height: 5-10. Weight: 207. Arm: 28.50. Hand: 9.50. Projected 40 Time: 4.65. Projected Round (2019): Top-5. Pros: Speed is huge. In his one season as a starting quarterback for Oklahoma, Murray completed 69 percent of his passes for 4,361 yards with 42 touchdowns and seven interceptions. He was an accurate passer and has a quality arm to go along with special athleticism and elite ability to make plays happen with his feet. In 2015 for Texas A&M, Murray completed 60 percent of his passes for 686 yards with five touchdowns and seven interceptions. Nice comeback against Alabama. Just because he is the 3rd best quarterback in this draft doesn’t mean that he is less of a fit than Haskins for a Kingsbury style offense in Arizona. I like Murray more than Haskins on the Cardinals.
Cons: Small and maybe fragile. Mentality to use his legs too much in a much. In faster league like the NFL running QBs in general get hurt. Rumor has it that he didn’t score well on the wonderlic test. Didn’t come across as a leader. Had a great team around him. Team must be built around his skill-sets. All team sources were in agreement that an offense would have to be changed and built around Murray. They all said that he will have to play out of the shotgun. AT 5-foot-10, Murray is quite short to be under center and do quick passing off of three-step drops. Thus, the offense is going to have to be built around Murray and he is not a quarterback who can be plugged into any NFL offense. That also presents some problems for his pro team in finding a backup quarterback who can execute the same plays. Therefore, it is going to take a team that is willing to commit to Murray and go all-in on building the offense around him.
Daniel Jones*, QB, Duke Height: 6-5. Weight: 221. Arm: 33.25. Hand: 9.75. 40 Time: 4.81. Projected Round (2019): 1. Pros: Scouts say that Jones has a good skill set, and they feel that he is getting good preparation for the NFL. Jones played very well in the senior bowl and The junior missed two games during 2018 with a collarbone injury. Jones has a strong arm and accuracy, showing the ability to make nice touch passes downfield. He also has good pocket presence to withstand pressure and keep his eyes downfield while buying time with his feet. He’s very smart and a great leader. Played in a tough division with lower level talent. Great height and weight!
Cons: Like all college quarterbacks, Jones has points of improvement for the NFL. He needs to shorten his delivery, which will help him to be effective for the faster pro game with its smaller windows of time to complete passes. It would also help him to reduce the time for pass-rushers to get to him. Might be a little slow running out of the pocket.
Will Grier*, QB, West Virginia Height: 6-2. Weight: 217. Arm: 31.50. Hand: 9.50. 40 Time: 4.84. Projected Round (2019): 3-4. Pros: In 2018, Grier completed 67 percent of his passes for 3,864 yards with 37 touchdowns and eight interceptions. He did interview well, but he looks more like a second-day or mid-round pick with a backup quarterback skill set. Teams project Grier to the second day and mid-rounds. He has a very accurate arm and you could see he is gamer with that last minute touchdown vs Texas. Will Grier checks in at 6-foot-2, 221 pounds. He has 30.88-inch arms, 9.48-inch hands, and a wingspan of 74.5 inches. He is said to run the 40 in 4.80 seconds. For 2017, Grier completed 64 percent of his passes for 3,490 yards with 34 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. He also had to have surgery after a finger injury sustained versus Texas. That caused him to miss the final two games of the year, against Oklahoma and Utah.
Cons: Missed the final 2 games of the season. He’s a little short. Grier’s arm didn’t look good in the senior bowl and that has scouts questioning his strength.
Gardner Minshew, QB, Washington State Height: 6-0. Weight: 225. Arm: 31.25. Hand: 10.25. 40 Time: 4.97. Projected Round (2019): 6-FA. Pros: In his one year at Washington State, Minshew became a fan favorite, putting together a good season in Mike Leach’s point-machine offense. After not playing much at East Carolina, Minshew transferred to the Cougars and benefited from Leach’s system. Minshew completed 71 percent of his passes in 2018 for 4,779 yards with 38 touchdowns and nine interceptions. He has more of a backup skill set for the NFL and did not have a strong performance at the Senior Bowl. Best accuracy out of all the QBs in this draft.
Cons: He is short for the NFL and a bit slow. Played in the Pac-12 whome had bad players and teams last year. Didn’t play in a pro-style system for Mike Leach.
Tyree Jackson, QB, Buffalo Height: 6-7. Weight: 249. Arm: 35.00. Hand: 10.00. 40 Time: 4.59. Projected Round (2019): 4-6. Pros: In 2018, the junior completed 55 percent of his passes for 3,131 yards with 28 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. In 2017, he completed 60.3 percent of his passes for 2,096 yards with 12 touchdowns and three interceptions. Jackson is a big physical specimen, but accuracy issues could weigh down his chances of rising in the leadup to the 2019 NFL Draft. He had a decent week at the Senior Bowl, but his inaccuracy was clearly visible. Jackson threw the ball well at the combine and did well in the field work. Off his decent combine, he improved his chances of being a third-day pick. Jackson is very fast at 4.59 for his 40 time at 6’7. Amazing size and speed combination. Played winning football on what was the worst team in the MAC. Resurrected the program.
Cons: He needs to be more accurate. Seems to take foot off the gas to let teams back in the game like we saw vs Northern Illinois. Played in a lessor conference.
Ryan Finley, QB, N.C. State Height: 6-4. Weight: 213. Arm: 32.75. Hand: 9.38. 40 Time: 4.73. Projected Round (2019): 2-3. Pros: In 2018, Finley completed 67 percent of his passes for 3,928 yards with 25 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. He was an accurate passer without making many mistakes for N.C. State, doing a good job of protecting the football and leading an pretty efficient offense. Ryan has good NFL Size. Finley checks in at 6-foot-3, 208 pounds. He has 33.5-inch arms, 9.38-inch hands, and a wingspan of 77.5 inches as well. Finley was a good game-manager for the Wolfpack in 2017, completing 65 percent of his passes for 3,518 yards with 17 touchdowns and six interceptions. He made good decisions and protected the football well. In 2016, Finley completed 60 percent of his passes for 3,055 yards with 18 touchdowns and eight interceptions. He is a very accurate Passer. Good NFL size at 6’4. He can scramble if need be.
Cons: There are a few things that Finley could stand to improve as a senior. Field vision is an issue for the next level, as Finley can lock onto his primary read. He needs to move his eyes and work through progressions. Staring down his primary receiver will lead to interceptions.
Trace McSorley, QB, Penn State Height: 6-0. Weight: 202. Arm: 31.13. Hand: 9.13. 40 Time: 4.57. Projected Round (2019): 6-FA. Pros: TraceMcSorley can dangerously burn defenses downfield as an aggressive quarterback who throws vertically. Over the past two seasons, he made a ton of clutch throws to help Penn State win a lot of games. In 2017, he completed 65 percent of his passes for 3,228 yards with 26 touchdowns and eight interceptions. 12 Rushing Touchdowns in 2018. Very fast and dangerous legs.
Cons: For 2018, McSorley completed 53 percent of his passes for 2,530 yards with 18 touchdowns and seven interceptions which was a huge step down. In his defense, he did lose a ton of talent from 2017 in Saquon Barkley and some key pass catchers leaving for the NFL. McSorley is a gritty player and would be ranked higher if he weren’t so vastly undersized.
Clayton Thorson, QB, Northwestern Height: 6-4. Weight: 222. Arm: 31.13. Hand: 9.75. Projected 40 Time: 4.75. Projected Round (2019): 2-3. Pros: In 2018, Thorson completed 61 percent of his passes for 3,183 yards with 17 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. He also collected nine rushing touchdowns. A high ankle sprain cost Thorson the Senior Bowl. Multiple team sources believe that Thorson will be selected on Day 2 during the 2019 NFL Draft. Thorson played well against Michigan and then dominated Michigan State. He won big games vs Wisconsin, Iowa and their bowl game vs Utah. Clayton also led the Wildcats to a nice over time comeback vs Nebraska. His accuracy was excellent. Thorson started 53 straight games, the most in Big Ten history. That is an excellent amount of experience and developmental time for the next level. I love Quarterbacks that played with less talent and still shined. Clayton checks in at 6-foot-4, 227 pounds. He also has 31.5-inch arms, 9.75-inch hands, and a wingspan of 76.5 inches. He is said to run the 40 in 4.75 seconds as well.
Cons: Not the strongest arm for the NFL. A lot of Thorson’s mistakes came from trying to do too much with his lackluster and terrible supporting cast. Can’t fault him much for that. Could be injury prone.
Sports Betting - The OddsBreakers - Wagering - Handicapping
We have a great show for you today! We first discuss 5 ways to judge NFL strength of schedule. Win%, Pythagorean, vs high to low Power ratings, Ws & Ls and vs Vegas win totals. We then get into some early College Football Futures and have a play for you. Finally, we rank our top 10 Quarterbacks in the draft for the NFL 2019 Season!
#NFL DRAFT #COLLEGEFOOTBALL #NCAA
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Last night looked promising as far as matchups went, but the numbers this morning aren’t lining up to where I would like them to be. I’ve found that I’m having more success in the first 5 inning plays and player prop plays that I have been for full game plays. I’m going to stick to that strategy here for today’s picks. So for now, we’ll just have two plays. With that out of the way, let’s get into the picks!
Tampa Bay Rays @ Chicago White Sox
The Rays will send Tyler Glasnow to the mound for this game. He’s having an outstanding season so far limiting the Astros to 1 run over 5 innings and shutting out the Giants on the road through 6 innings. He should be able to take advantage of this White Sox team that strikes out in 24.8% of their at bats. The White Sox send Reynaldo Lopez back to the mound. He’s been shelled his first 2 outings of the season giving up 4 runs in 4 innings to the Royals and 6 runs in 6 innings to the Mariners. This should be a pretty cut and dry first 5 innings. Glasnow should be able to limit any damage and the Rays bats should be able to get to Lopez as they have the other White Sox starting pitchers so far this series. Take Rays F5 -0.5 -110
LA Dodgers @ St Louis Cardinals
The Dodgers visit the Cardinals as one of the highest scoring teams in the league so far this season. The Dodgers will send out Kenta Maeda for the third time this year. He’s had 2 good starts giving up just 3 runs in 6.2 innings to Arizona and 1 run over 5 innings to Colorado. Maeda has pitched well against the Cardinals in a few shorter stints at the end of last year. The Cardinals counter with Jack Flaherty. His first outing was a bit shaky against Milwaukee giving up 4 runs in 4.1 innings, but he settled down in his second outing giving up no runs in 5 innings against the Padres. Historically, Flaherty has pitched very well against the Dodgers giving up just 2 runs in 12 innings covering his previous 2 starts against them. I think this one has the makings for a pretty good pitchers duel, at least early on. Take F5 UNDER 4.5 -120
Make sure to keep an eye on my Twitter @DEdgeSportPicks for any add on plays throughout the day. Good luck!
We’re back! It’s been about a month, and I do apologize for
the delay. Life sometimes gets too hectic, and for me it certainly did for
quite a while. I never want to
release plays that aren’t thoroughly researched, and now that things have calmed
down and I’m able to put a proper amount of research into it, I’m happy to be
back writing for all of you.
Today’s Article
The article today is slightly different. I’ll be releasing a
couple of plays I like, but mostly I’m breaking down each playoff series
helping you find edges throughout the
series. I’ll have the traditional “Team in Games” pick, but I’ll also be
highlighting situations that could make for interesting betting opportunities.
I’ll be releasing newsletters as often as possible throughout the playoffs, so
make sure you follow @jksportsbets on twitter for the latest information (and,
of course, those in-games plays). We start in the East.
Tampa Bay Lightening
v. Columbus Blue Jackets – This series seems like a good place to start
since, at least on paper, it’s the most one-sided. Columbus finally pulled it
together (depending on your definition of “together”) to make the playoffs, and
as the saying goes, anything can happen in April. Just get here. For the
Jackets, though, that’s probably not the case this time around. Bobrovsky’s
numbers during playoff hockey are much weaker than the regular season. The
sample size is small, but it’s all we have to work with at the moment.
Vasilevsky is the leading candidate for the Vezina; it would be an upset if he
doesn’t get it. Let’s try not to over-think this one. Tampa will take it. I do
think, however, that Columbus steals one. Bobrovsky can put on the heat at a
moment’s notice, and I think he shows up here. Maybe game 3 in Columbus. Look
to bet the Jackets if they go into a 2-0 hole down in Florida.
Tampa Bay in 5.
Boston Bruins v.
Toronto Maple Leafs – Arguably one of the two best matchups in the first
round, and the best on the east coast. I’ve seen a lot of consensus for Boston,
and it makes sense. Toronto’s last 40 games are wildly different than their
first 40, and the B’s have been on a tear. But keep in mind that recent
performance has shown to be less of
an indicator in the first round of the playoffs than most people believe. This
has all the makings of a great, seven game series. Rask is definitely worse in
the postseason than the regular season, posting a .903 SV in 12 career games.
Andersen, who is expected to start for the Leafs, has been even worse. When he
has been good, however, is on 3+ days of rest, during which he posts a .922 SV
this year. I really like Toronto in Game 1, then Boston in Game 2. Look for
those opportunities. They may well seesaw the whole series. In the end, though,
Boston is just playing too well.
Boston in 7.
Washington Capitals v.
Carolina Hurricanes – Carolina is being written out of this series, but I
don’t think it’s time to give up on them yet. I love this series because of the
analytics. Carolina has the second-highest
Corsi For percentage in the league behind only San Jose (another angle I
like in the first round). Their xGF were nearly 200, yet they scored only 161.
That’s a huge difference! Shot placement doesn’t explain all of that.
Meanwhile, look at Washington. Expected GF 167, actual 197. Expected against
185, actual 165. All this is to say (and I think you can tell by watching their
games), Washington has, on average, gotten luckier than they should have, and
Carolina has not. I believe the ‘Canes win this series because I believe
regression hits at the worst possible time for the Caps. Their standard in
April seems to be the early exit, with last year the exception, so look for it
again from the defending champs. I think Carolina goes 1-1 in the first two,
then 1-1 in the next two. I look forward to this one. Given the public’s
popularity of the Hurricanes, though, the odds on them winning the series are
as low as +125 in some places. Yuck. Not the price I wanted, but I do believe
they win.
Carolina in 7.
New York Islanders v.
Pittsburgh Penguins – This one shouldn’t be as close as the numbers show.
New York is a team built on defense. No player has more than 62 points, and
they win more 1-0 games than I’ve ever seen. Pittsburgh is more well-rounded,
with a decent offense and defense. The Isles just aren’t ready for the
pressure. More than recent trends, in the postseason experience matters. And
while I just got done saying the defending champs won’t leave the first-round,
I think it’s important to understand what experience we’re talking about. We’re
not talking about the ability to win it all any given year. We’re talking about
the consistency, the results year after year, that showcase a team’s desire to
perform for their fans and their city. There may be no team more versed in this
than Pittsburgh. With the same core group of guys, they have shown to
consistently win playoff series. When it’s time to play, Crosby and Malkin show
up. This is their 14th straight trip to the postseason, and they’ve
only lost in the first round once in
those fourteen trips. That is impressive. Look for that experience to get the
best of New York. The Pens look at a buck fifty at the moment, so a little
steep for me. But I don’t blame you for laying the price.
Pittsburgh in 6.
Moving onto the West.
Calgary Flames v.
Colorado Avalanche – Similarly to the East, we’re going to try not to overthink
things here. Calgary has struggled all year between the pipes; that’s one area
the Av’s have done quite well in lately. But Colorado is just not enough to
compete with Calgary. Whether it’s the Jets, the Sharks, or anyone else,
Calgary just wins. That’s what they do. They’re second in the league in goals
for, compared to 15th for Colorado. The Av’s are top heavy, while
the Flames are more balanced. Calgary swept all three games against Colorado,
and with the extended time off, it shouldn’t be that long of a series here. The
only decision is in 5 or in 6. You won’t find a good price on Calgary anywhere;
there’s a reason for that.
Calgary in 5.
San Jose Sharks v.
Vegas Golden Knights – This will rival the Leafs/Bruins series for best in
the first round. Even though Vegas has only been around for two years, they
already have a playoff history with the Sharks, having knocked them out of the second
round last year en route to a Stanley Cup final appearance. The Knights have
been damn good since the trade
deadline, and the acquisition of Stone looks to have turned them into a true
contender. There’s one aspect that so many have overlooked, though. San Jose
hasn’t been healthy in months. Erik Karlsson had missed the last fourteen with
a lower body injury before returning in the season finale against Colorado. In
that time, the Sharks had a rotating door with Pavelski, Vlasic, Kane, and Couture
battling injuries as well. In fact, that finale against Colorado was the first
time the Sharks have been healthy since February; and while neither team was
giving 100%, and Karlsson admitted after the game he was easing back into it,
it was clear what this Sharks team can do. They are dangerous, and they’re my
sleeper pick to win it all this year; I have several futures bets with them.
This will be a nail-biter and it should go the distance, but the Sharks are
just too good at home and too potent an offense. Possibly more important than
any of that? The Sharks know this could be their last chance to get Jumbo Joe a
cup. Their window is closing. They’ll play like it. Look for Martin Jones to
get hot at the right time, like he has his whole career. Take them at -110.
San Jose in 7.
Nashville Predators v.
Dallas Stars – This is another popular upset pick, but I’m not in agreement
with it. Sure, Dallas had only one fewer ROW during the regular season than
Nashville, but they don’t score enough. They overaged almost half a goal per game less than the Preds throughout
the season, while they both allowed around 210 goals against. Nashville took
the season series 3-2, and they’re just more balanced across the board. Where
the Stars do have an edge is in goal. Ben Bishop has a 1.98 GAA and is playing
incredibly well heading into the postseason. Given that, and Dallas’ defense, I
don’t expect them to go quietly. But give credit where credit is due; Nashville
started strong and ended strong, they only waivered in the middle of the
season. That has historically bode well for teams heading into April. Give me
Nashville.
Nashville in 6.
Winnipeg Jets v. St.
Louis Blues – This is probably the most challenging series for me to pick.
I’ve gone back and forth on this one, so let’s look at the numbers. Yes, the
Blues are just higher in nearly every advanced analytical category. They have a
higher Corsi For %, a higher SC%, they have a worse axDiff (which gives the
total difference between goals scored and expected goals scored plus goals
allowed and expected goals allowed), meaning they got unluckier during the
season. They rank 7th in the league in scoring chances for (SC%) and
5th in high-danger scoring chances for (HDF%). The big key for me,
though, is that they just haven’t converted on those chances. They are ranking
22nd in high-danger conversion percentage. Can they convert? That
will be the ultimate determination of this series. My belief is that if they
couldn’t in the regular season, they won’t in the playoffs. Not against a team
so eager to get to the Cup finals. The crazy part is that the Jets are the underdog on most sites simply because of
the way the Blues have been playing lately. But what we do we know about hockey
in April? All bets are off. I love the price on the Jets, and I’m hammering it.
Winnipeg in 7.
Conclusion – I have
four of the eight series going to seven games, and while that may seem high, it’s
because I believe this is actually going to be one of the best first-rounds that
we’ve seen in years. For the investment picks? I like the price on San Jose. I
like the price on Winnipeg. And I like the series exact result for Nashville
and Carolina.
Carolina Hurricanes (Series Exact Result) 4-3.
+550. 1 unit.
San Jose Sharks to Win Series. -110. 2 units.
Nashville Predators (Series Exact Result) 4-2. +450. 2 units.
Winnipeg Jets to Win Series. +130. 3 units.
Below find all my playoff picks. I’ll be releases previews
of each round as they come, and I’ll have newsletters up as often as possible
during the playoffs. They may be brief, but I’ll do my best to get you guys
some quick insights and my picks for the day. Make sure you follow on twitter
(@jksportsbets), as I often release in-game plays that have shown to be very
profitable. Get that alarm ringing, and let’s get ready for some PLAYOFF
HOCKEY!
Tampa Bay
v. Columbus – Tampa Bay in 5.
Boston v. Toronto – Boston in 7.
Washington v. Carolina – Carolina in 7.
New York v. Pittsburgh – Pittsburgh in 6.
Calgary v. Colorado – Calgary in 5.
San Jose v. Vegas – San Jose
in 7.
Nashville v. Dallas – Nashville in 6.
Winnipeg v. St. Louis – Winnipeg in 7.
Tampa Bay v. Boston – Boston in 7.
Pittsburgh v. Carolina – Pittsburgh in 5.
Calgary v. San Jose – San Jose in 6.
Nashville v. Winnipeg – Winnipeg in 7.
